Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBUF 230330
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS LOW EXITING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA. AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
EVENTUALLY PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER
CIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT JHW. ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VWP SHOWS 45 KT
WINDS AT 2K FT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS IN THE ART TAF. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CLIPPING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 01Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS REACHED ROC/JHW...AND RAISED CIGS TO MVFR AT THESE
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT JHW. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CLIPPING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 01Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS REACHED ROC/JHW...AND RAISED CIGS TO MVFR AT THESE
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT JHW. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 222345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PERIODICALLY
CLIP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN DRY.
AT 700 PM...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MOST OF
THE QPF TO OUR EAST...OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 23Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THIS DRIER AIR REACHES JHW...WITH
FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT DEPENDING HOW
PERSISTENT LOW MOISTURE REMAINS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ON THURSDAY AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY MIXES IN. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
PERIODIC BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 221934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH A SURFACE
LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE UNDERNEATH. SPIRALING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW ARE SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
DISPLAY A PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THEN THE ATLANTIC RISING NORTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE HILLS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

EXPECT THE BETTER HALF OF TONIGHT TO REMAIN DRY. THE STREAMING
MOISTURE ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS STILL WELL TO OUR EAST...AND
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER TONIGHT THAT AN EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF THIS STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL
BE WHAT TRANSPORTS MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS WESTWARD. LATEST MODEL
RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON A DEVELOPING TROWEL SIGNATURE TONIGHT
OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS...INSTEAD FOCUSING THE RAIN AND INCREASING
WARMTH ALOFT MORE TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
LIKEWISE BACK OFF ON THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH MUCH LOWER
CHANCES OF THE RAIN BEING AS FAR WEST AS THE GENESEE VALLEY BY DAWN.
AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

THE COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SOCK THE
HILLS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING IN PLACE FORESEE THIS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAINING IN
PLACE RIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THUS WILL CONTINUE
WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THESE
LOCATIONS...WITH THE POOREST VISIBILITIES FOUND ON HILL TOPS...AND
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER VISIBILITIES WITHIN THE VALLEYS.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT SOME VARYING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE COULD BE FOUND TOMORROW. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS OF WNY...TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE
LAKES...AND SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT
LOWS UNDER THE THICKENING CLOUDS ALOFT WILL RANGE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 40. TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GREATEST WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK OVER LAKE ONTARIO
WITH WINDS REMAINING ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ACROSS ALL LAKE
ZONES...AND FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFTS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF TONIGHT.

ON LAKE ERIE THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST WAVES
TOWARDS THE TOLEDO END OF THE LAKE...AND SUCH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LITTLE RETURNS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER WHERE A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE.
WITH THE LAKE ERIE EASTERN BUOYS DISPLAYING WAVES 2 FEET OR
LESS...WILL EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR LAKE ERIE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY LITTLE RETURNS...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
THERE WILL REMAIN A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO
AND ROCHESTER WHERE A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS LOW CLOUDS...FOG...AND SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CWA...WHILE TO THE HILL SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER
WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND. A COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...WITH WINDS
BACKING FROM A SLIGHT NNE FLOW TO A NNW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WIND FLOW...COMBINED WITH A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN CIGS MVFR AND SOUTHERN IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING KJHW MAY BRIEFLY LIFT ABOVE IFR
THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON...FEEL THE BULK OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SHOULD REMAIN IFR. ELSEWHERE LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW SOME IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
AT THIS TIME THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO LOCATIONS AND TIMING
OF WHEN THIS IFR CIGS MAY OCCUR...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH
MVFR IN THIS TAF PACKAGE.

LATER IN THE TAF CYCLE A SURGE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...IMPACTING THE KART
TERMINAL AROUND 12Z AND THERE AFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SHOWERS
LIKELY...WITH SHOWERS FALLING MAINLY GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ERIE.
WITH THE LAKE ERIE EASTERN BUOYS DISPLAYING WAVES 2 FEET OR
LESS...WILL EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR LAKE ERIE.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221506
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH A SURFACE LOW REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE...AGAIN JUST OFF THE COASTLINE. REGIONAL RADARS ARE LARGELY
PRECIPITATION FREE THIS LATE MORNING...THOUGH THE COOL NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY STILL LINGER SPRINKLES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SOUTH OF BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. ALSO IN A MOISTURE RICH LOWER
ENVIRONMENT THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE MAINTAINING A PRESENCE OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS. CONFIRMED WITH
REGIONAL SURFACE OBS...FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD RAISE THE LOWER CLOUD BASE SUCH THAT VISIBILITIES SHOULD
IMPROVE. IF ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCURS...THE LIKELIEST
LOCATION WILL BE ACROSS THE HILL TOPS OF CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY
COUNTIES. LATER TODAY A LOBE OF ENERGY SPIRALING AROUND THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH A CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL NATURE OF OUR
AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED
IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS
THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN...WITH THIS SYSTEM
REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WRAPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO
BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUR CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR.

GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER TIME AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING
COASTAL LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER WEST.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221101
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
701 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATION AND STRENGTHEN...WHILE THE WHOLE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED.

AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
TODAY...THE BACKSIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO /AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY/ DRAW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RECEDE INLAND AND
DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH THIS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LOWER-END
CHANCES FOR SOME LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO
A CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL
NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE
"WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED
IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS
THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN...WITH THIS SYSTEM
REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WRAPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO
BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUR CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR.

GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER TIME AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING
COASTAL LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER WEST.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221101
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
701 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATION AND STRENGTHEN...WHILE THE WHOLE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED.

AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
TODAY...THE BACKSIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO /AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY/ DRAW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RECEDE INLAND AND
DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH THIS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LOWER-END
CHANCES FOR SOME LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL DUE TO
A CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND THE COOL
NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE COOLEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE THE
"WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED
IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS
THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN...WITH THIS SYSTEM
REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WRAPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO
BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUR CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR.

GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER TIME AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING
COASTAL LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER WEST.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220842
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
442 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN...THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WHICH WILL BE FROM THE FINGER LAKES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER VIRGINIA WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION
CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATION AND STRENGTHEN...WHILE THE WHOLE SYSTEM BECOMES
INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY STACKED.

AS OF THIS WRITING...RADAR RETURNS ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE GREATLY
DIMINISHED AS THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE HAS BEGUN FEEDING SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THE MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
STILL CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR REGION
IN SPITE OF THIS...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SLIDES A LITTLE FURTHER EAST
TODAY...THE BACKSIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO /AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY/ DRAW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANY LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY RECEDE INLAND AND
DIMINISH THIS MORNING...WITH THIS EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO LOWER-END
CHANCES FOR SOME LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH BOTH THESE AND
THE COOL NATURE OF OUR AIRMASS HELPING KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
CONFINED TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...
THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE
THE "WARMEST" HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE LAKESHORES.

AS THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE REFLECTION PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT...IT WILL FEED INCREASING AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.
THE DEEPEST OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEW YORK...WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
LARGER UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT. ALL OF THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN WITH TIME ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHILE FURTHER WEST SHALLOWER
MOISTURE AND WEAKER LIFT WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WITH THE CHANCES FOR THESE DECREASING WITH INCREASING
WESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL GIVEN THE OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS GENERALLY RANGING
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COOL...CLOUDY...AND DAMP CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MATURE COASTAL LOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...MAINTAINING LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHILE TO THE
WEST NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE LAKES WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...BUT A RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OWING TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE DAMP AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT COOLING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THIS WILL USHER IN DRIER
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE LINGERING CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE LOWER 50S. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT LIKELY MAINTAINING ENOUGH MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT
SKIES FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW
DIVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A POTENT
130+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO SATURDAY BEFORE PLOWING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK SHOULD ESCAPE THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ONCE AGAIN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IN PARTICULAR THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL BE IN THE BULLSEYE OF THE STRONGER DPVA ALOFT AND GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE POSITIONING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING
JET...THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE
AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY EXIT
THE REGION SUNDAY...COOL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN ITS WAKE AND AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE RIDGING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN USHER IN A PERIOD OF
WARM...DRY...AND SUNNY WEATHER TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
TO START THE COMING WEEK. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY BE BASKING IN THE
LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 08Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED
IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS IS
THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPEN...WITH THIS SYSTEM
REACHING A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WRAPPING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO
BRING A GRADUAL IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...WITH
THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME LEFTOVER
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND OUR CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY
LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR.

GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY OVER TIME AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE STRENGTHENING
COASTAL LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FURTHER WEST.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COASTLINE WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE
MAINTAINING A MODERATE FLOW OF COOL AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS
OUTLINED BELOW...WITH CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
FURTHER AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220604
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
204 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH OUR REGION REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM...COOL
AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL THEN
RETURN TO THE REGION STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A
MOIST UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP PLENTIFUL LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE
AREAWIDE...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

TOMORROW A DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR VIRGINIA
WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING THICK. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEARLY STACKED DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING VERY
SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY BE JUST AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...KEEPING A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRING A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY NO GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND .BUT
INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK REMAINS SOCKED
IN UNDER IFR TO LOWER-END MVFR CLOUD COVER...WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE
AND LIGHT RAIN ALSO CONTINUING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS
IS THANKS TO LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...
WHICH CONTINUES TO FEED A MOIST NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING A POSITION JUST
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WRAPPING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO BRING A GRADUAL
IMPROVING TREND THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE COURSE OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TENDING TO DIMINISH AND OUR
CURRENT IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS SLOWLY LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/LOW VFR.
GENERAL MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE AN UPTICK IN
PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY AS
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE PIVOTS WESTWARD AROUND THE COASTAL LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN...WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ON THE
RIVERS. FOR TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHERLY WIND...STRENGTHENING
SOME OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP THE
GORGE.

THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TOMORROW...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THOUGH WAVES WILL STILL AVERAGE AROUND
3-4 FEET ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SETS UP A
FAIRLY BRISK NNE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN CAUSES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITH A 30-40 LLJ WHICH IS PIVOTING AROUND THE
UPPER LOW. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF FIELDS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS
WELL...RADAR DOES SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES CAPTURE THE LLJ
WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. THERE IS ALSO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE
DUE TO THE NNE SURFACE FLOW IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NAM/RGEM DO CAPTURE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT FAIRLY WELL...BUT DRIZZLE MAY BE MISSED BY THE RADAR
AT FAR DISTANCES.

OVERALL...EXPECT A MOIST AND RAW NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
IN MANY AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE LOW CLOUDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS.
IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE FLOW IS
LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE THICK CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
THICK. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE
CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEARLY STACKED DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING VERY
SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY BE JUST AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...KEEPING A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRING A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY NO GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND .BUT
INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN 925MB WINDS HAS
LOWERED CIGS TO BELOW 1K FT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG AS WELL.

THESE WINDS DIMINISH BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
AND A HIGHER INVERSION LIKELY TO ALLOW CIGS TO RISE SLIGHTLY LATE
TONIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CAN
SOMETIMES BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING AND SCATTERING CIGS IN A
NORTHERLY FLOW SUCH AS THIS. TAFS WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN... RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ON THE
RIVERS. FOR TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHERLY WIND...STRENGTHENING
SOME OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP THE
GORGE.

THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TOMORROW...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THOUGH WAVES WILL STILL AVERAGE AROUND
3-4 FEET ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 212338
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SETS UP A
FAIRLY BRISK NNE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN CAUSES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. THIS IS WELL SHOWN BY
RADAR...EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THIS IN
THE QPF FIELD. STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THIS AREA LIKELY TO DROP SSW FOLLOWING THE 700-500
MB FLOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE DUE TO THE NNE
SURFACE FLOW IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM) BUT CANNOT BE SEEN CLEARLY ON
RADAR.

EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN MANY
AREAS. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE THE FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE THICK
CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEARLY STACKED DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING VERY
SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY BE JUST AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...KEEPING A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRING A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY NO GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND .BUT
INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN 925MB WINDS LIKELY
KEYED THE LOWERING IN CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 30 KT WINDS
ALOFT FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND 06Z EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY IN SOME SPOTS.

THESE WINDS DIMINISH BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
AND A HIGHER INVERSION LIKELY TO ALLOW CIGS TO RISE LATE TONIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CAN SOMETIMES BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING AND SCATTERING CIGS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW SUCH
AS THIS. TAFS WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN... RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ON THE
RIVERS. FOR TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHERLY WIND...STRENGTHENING
SOME OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP THE
GORGE.

THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TOMORROW...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THOUGH WAVES WILL STILL AVERAGE AROUND
3-4 FEET ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 212338
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SETS UP A
FAIRLY BRISK NNE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
NEAR THE SOUTH SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THERE APPEARS TO BE TWO MAIN CAUSES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. THIS IS WELL SHOWN BY
RADAR...EVEN THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THIS IN
THE QPF FIELD. STEADIEST SHOWERS ARE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THIS AREA LIKELY TO DROP SSW FOLLOWING THE 700-500
MB FLOW. THERE IS ALSO SOME UPSLOPE DRIZZLE DUE TO THE NNE
SURFACE FLOW IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM) BUT CANNOT BE SEEN CLEARLY ON
RADAR.

EXPECT MOIST CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IN MANY
AREAS. AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH IN MOST LOCATIONS. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE THE FLOW IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE THICK
CLOUD COVER.

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEARLY STACKED DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING VERY
SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY BE JUST AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...KEEPING A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRING A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY NO GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND .BUT
INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN 925MB WINDS LIKELY
KEYED THE LOWERING IN CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH 30 KT WINDS
ALOFT FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND 06Z EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY IN SOME SPOTS.

THESE WINDS DIMINISH BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
AND A HIGHER INVERSION LIKELY TO ALLOW CIGS TO RISE LATE TONIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING SINCE MODEL GUIDANCE CAN SOMETIMES BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN LIFTING AND SCATTERING CIGS IN A NORTHERLY FLOW SUCH
AS THIS. TAFS WILL SHOW AN IMPROVING TREND LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH MVFR-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN... RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ON THE
RIVERS. FOR TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHERLY WIND...STRENGTHENING
SOME OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP THE
GORGE.

THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TOMORROW...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THOUGH WAVES WILL STILL AVERAGE AROUND
3-4 FEET ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211945
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
345 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
DEEPENING OFF THE JERSEY COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS WNY
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHT ACTIVITY FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES...AND WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE
AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER
COVERAGE AREA. ALSO TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
AND TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE WILL BRING ADDED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT LIKELY
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.

WITH RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS AND ALSO THE TUG HILL
REGION.

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING NEARLY STACKED DEEP CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOVING VERY
SLOWLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MAINE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH LIKELY A SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION FIELD
SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...THOUGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
MAY BE JUST AS PREVALENT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHERLY FLOW UPSLOPE
AREAS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S
EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PUSHING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM ONTARIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM PULLING AWAY...KEEPING A
LOW RISK FOR SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE IN AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE ONTARIO UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS SIMILAR IN BRING A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS WITH SUNSHINE AND A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES PROBABLY NO GETTING OUT OF THE 50S FOR THE WEEKEND .BUT
INTO THE 60S...POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 70S FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 18Z WILL
YIELD IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

TO START THE TAF PERIOD...SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEAR
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS KBUF...AND LATER KJHW. GREATEST DURATION OF IFR WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MAINTAIN AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.

LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KART...THOUGH
SOME PATCHY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD
IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COOL...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RULE THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WILL
MAINTAIN CHOPPY LAKE WATERS AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS ON THE RIVERS.
FOR TONIGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
AND LAKE ERIE. THE NORTHERLY WIND...STRENGTHENING SOME OVERNIGHT
WITH THE ONSET OF COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BRING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER AS WINDS FUNNEL UP THE GORGE.

THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TOMORROW...THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM SLIDING UP THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE WILL
EXIT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND THOUGH WAVES WILL STILL AVERAGE AROUND
3-4 FEET ON THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA TONIGHT TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SUNSHINE AND INCREASING WARMTH WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
STARTING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH A SECOND SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
DEEPENING OFF THE JERSEY COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKENING
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY SCATTERED SHOWERS BREAKING OUT ACROSS WNY
AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD...WITH LIGHT ACTIVITY FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. GREATEST CHANCES...AND WHERE LIKELY POPS WILL BE IN
PLACE WILL BE ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER WHERE
AN UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHOWER
COVERAGE AREA. ALSO TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
AND TOWARDS THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS
THE LAKE WILL BRING ADDED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT LIKELY
SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW.

WITH RICH MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SOME
PATCHY FOG TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS AND ALSO THE TUG HILL
REGION.

TOMORROW THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON WILL FORM A CUTOFF LOW
NEAR VIRGINIA WITH A SURFACE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. COOL NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH CLOUDS REMAINING
THICK. DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD END THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE BY MID MORNING
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN GENESEE
VALLEY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSE LOW.

WITH THICK CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL NOT HAVE A GREAT RANGE.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL LOWER TO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT. TOMORROW WITH COOLING ALOFT...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AT 18Z WILL
YIELD IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

TO START THE TAF PERIOD...SOME IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND NEAR
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FARTHER
SOUTHWARD. AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS LOW CLOUDS AND ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS KBUF...AND LATER KJHW. GREATEST DURATION OF IFR WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A UPSLOPE FLOW WITH MAINTAIN AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW.

LARGELY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KART...THOUGH
SOME PATCHY IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE SHOULD
IMPROVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MVFR AND SOME VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS LATE MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR METRO ROCHESTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY...ONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
AND A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR LAKE HURON. MORNING 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING DISPLAYS A WEALTH OF MOISTURE BENEATH 500 HPA. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW...AND LIFT
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDED DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARS.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND THIS MORNING IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN AND OUT OF
IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY MVFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD BE FOUND FROM ABOUT KROC SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS LATE MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR METRO ROCHESTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY...ONE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER EASTERN NEW YORK
AND A SECOND DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR LAKE HURON. MORNING 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING DISPLAYS A WEALTH OF MOISTURE BENEATH 500 HPA. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS SURFACE LOW...AND LIFT
AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ADDED DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NEARS.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND THIS MORNING IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN AND OUT OF
IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY MVFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD BE FOUND FROM ABOUT KROC SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER
OF THIS LOW. THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOUND SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE
OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF ON AN INCH IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND THIS MORNING IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN AND OUT OF
IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY MVFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD BE FOUND FROM ABOUT KROC SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER
OF THIS LOW. THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOUND SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE
OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF ON AN INCH IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND THIS MORNING IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN AND OUT OF
IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY MVFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD BE FOUND FROM ABOUT KROC SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER
OF THIS LOW. THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOUND SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE
OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF ON AN INCH IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND THIS MORNING IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN AND OUT OF
IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY MVFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD BE FOUND FROM ABOUT KROC SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS
SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER
OF THIS LOW. THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOUND SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE
OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF ON AN INCH IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND THIS MORNING IN
THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO
WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. CIGS MAY INTERMITTENTLY DROP IN AND OUT OF
IFR BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY MVFR CIGS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST AS WELL WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS SHOULD BE FOUND FROM ABOUT KROC SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING FEATURES A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY...THEN INCREASE
FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
532 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO JUST OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR TORONTO. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THIS LOW. AT 09Z
THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOUND SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND SYNOPTIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND A
SHARPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A LULL IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE
REGION. SHOWERS WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW.
WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE
OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST.
WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW TRANSFERS TO JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS THIS OCCURS THE BETTER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL ALSO SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW. WRAP AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW AND
UPSLOPE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT SHOWERS
WILL TAPER TO JUST LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLOUDY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO A HALF ON AN INCH IN MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 50 IN MOST AREAS.
TONIGHT THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE
COD THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LARGE SYSTEM
WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MAINTAIN AN ABUNDANT FLOW
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY
NORTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DREARY FALL WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE MOST ACUTE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE LAKE WILL
BE MOST PERSISTENT WHILE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT
SUBJECT TO THE NORTHERLY ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS GIVEN THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
CENTER AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW CENTER.

AS WE PROGRESS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE PROBABILITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL DROP OFF SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECLINES CONSIDERABLY...HOWEVER
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PLENTIFUL ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THE AREAS THAT HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT STAYING DRY ON
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...FARTHEST
REMOVED FROM THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE
COURTESY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE THAT WILL BLANKET THE REGION. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 40S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY THE WEEKEND AS THE COASTAL LOW
OFF NEW ENGLAND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC CANADA...TAKING
WITH IT THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THERE WILL STILL BE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE
REGION...HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TERRITORIES. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND COOL AIR PERILOUSLY CLOSE TO WESTERN/NORTHERN
NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FEATURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE GEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS THE
TACK THIS FORECAST WILL TAKE...GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN JUST A HAIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
FOR LATE OCTOBER.

AS WE OPEN THE COMING WEEK...MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE REFLECTED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN...WAIT FOR
IT...SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT LEAST INTO THE
60S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS IS FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION. BY
DAYBREAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY.
NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER IS ALLOWING FOR LOWERING CIGS WITH IFR IN PLACE TODAY AND
LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL
WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210622
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY WHILE
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRANSFER TO THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY AND SHIFT NORTH ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK WHILE CONTINUING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER DEVELOPS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST NORTH OF TORONTO. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND RAIN SHOWERS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THIS LOW AND SHIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS IT TRANSFERS
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALOFT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED WITHIN AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD
OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW. A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY EVEN OCCUR AS THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE REGION. AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
SOUTHEAST DURING TUESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL WRAP INTO
WESTERN NY WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN THROUGH TODAY...THE
TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF
ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MIX OF MVFR AND SOUTHERN TIER IFR CIGS IS FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW PRESSURE AND RAIN SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION.
BY DAYBREAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CIGS
HERE LOWERING TO IFR TODAY AND CERTAINLY BY THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY INTO THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WITH
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER THIS MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210305
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
ERIE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND REACH NY BY 12Z TUESDAY... AN UNUSUAL
LOW TRACK FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN
AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND
COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN
DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS REDUCING TO MVFR THEN IFR. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY
TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT
THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS
WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR
THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210305
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
ERIE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND REACH NY BY 12Z TUESDAY... AN UNUSUAL
LOW TRACK FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN
AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND
COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN
DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS REDUCING TO MVFR THEN IFR. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY
TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT
THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS
WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR
THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210305
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
ERIE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND REACH NY BY 12Z TUESDAY... AN UNUSUAL
LOW TRACK FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN
AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND
COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN
DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS REDUCING TO MVFR THEN IFR. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY
TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT
THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS
WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR
THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210305
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
ERIE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND REACH NY BY 12Z TUESDAY... AN UNUSUAL
LOW TRACK FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN
AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND
COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN
DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS REDUCING TO MVFR THEN IFR. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY
TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN
NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT
THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS
WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR
THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 202344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
ERIE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND REACH NY BY 12Z TUESDAY... AN UNUSUAL
LOW TRACK FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN
AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND
COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN
DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KNOTS. WILL
ALLOW CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8PM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 202344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LAKE
ERIE WITH ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER GEORGIAN BAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND REACH NY BY 12Z TUESDAY... AN UNUSUAL
LOW TRACK FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO
DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN
AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
AROUND THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH
EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON
TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND
COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN
DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE GONE WITH HIGH
CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE HAVE SUBSIDED TO 10-15 KNOTS. WILL
ALLOW CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 8PM. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/LEVAN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES...WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA
NOTED ENTERING WESTERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE HAS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NY BY
MID EVENING. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS VORTICITY MAXIMA...EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND THIS HAS
SUPPORT FROM SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM
AND GEM SOLUTIONS.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND REACH WESTERN NY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AN UNUSUAL LOW TRACK
FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF
SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS
FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE
LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST BY WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT ACROSS CENTRAL NY BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
DEVELOPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY CROSSING LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST
AREAS WILL SEE NOTHING MORE THAN A SPRINKLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL LAKES...WITH A POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMA
NOTED ENTERING WESTERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE HAS A CONCENTRATED BAND OF
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NY BY
MID EVENING. GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS VORTICITY MAXIMA...EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING TO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND THIS HAS
SUPPORT FROM SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM
AND GEM SOLUTIONS.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND REACH WESTERN NY BY 12Z TUESDAY...AN UNUSUAL LOW TRACK
FROM A CLIMATOLOGY STANDPOINT. ALOFT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AND WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED WITHIN AREAS OF DPVA AHEAD OF
SEVERAL NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE DEVELOPING
CLOSED LOW. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL MOVE FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
EARLY TUESDAY...WEAKENING WITH EASTERN EXTENT. THE SECOND IS
FORECAST TO WRAP INTO WESTERN NY ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE COMING TOGETHER YIELD A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAIN TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY...THE TRANSIENT AND COMPLEX NATURE OF FORCING WITH THE
LOW CROSSING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WILL MAKE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RAIN DIFFICULT AT BEST. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CATEGORICAL POPS BUT KEPT THE WORDING OF OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TRICKY TO PLACE AS WELL...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAINING RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. IN GENERAL EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
A QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS...BUT SOME MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 40S IN
MOST AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOWER 40S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION...AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EXITING UPPER WAVE ANCHORING THE BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT SETTLES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE EXTENSIVE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PUSH WESTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST
PART OF WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD
SEE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY
AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE AN UPTICK TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS BACK TO THE WEST AND A FRESH SLUG OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINING CONSISTENT...AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE. PLENTY OF MARITIME AIR WILL BE WRAPPED WESTWARD
INTO THE REGION CONTINUING THE DREARY WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL
REMAINS FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

AN IMPROVEMENT LOOKS TO COME BY THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RIGHT
NEAR THE LOW CENTER.

LATER TUESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 25 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.
THIS WILL BRING HIGHER END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201801
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZED OR
MEASURING SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF WATERTOWN.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC
SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 50 ON THE HILLS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...NONETHELESS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RIDGE...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO
QUEBEC WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THIS FEATURE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MILDER AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT KEEPS READINGS JUST A HAR BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...SMITH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201801
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE...AND ALSO THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZED OR
MEASURING SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG
AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN A FEW SPOTS NORTH OF WATERTOWN.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC
SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE
THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 50 ON THE HILLS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...NONETHELESS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RIDGE...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO
QUEBEC WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THIS FEATURE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MILDER AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT KEEPS READINGS JUST A HAR BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR WILL LAST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KIAG WHERE LOCAL SSW
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH 22Z WILL BE VERY LIGHT
WITH NO REDUCTION IN CIGS/VSBY.

EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MOST WIDESPREAD AT FIRST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER INCLUDING KBUF/KIAG/KROC SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR AT
FIRST WITH ANY SHOWERS REMAINING LIGHT AND SSW FLOW HELPING TO
DOWNSLOPE AWAY ANY LOWER CIGS.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...AND LOWER CIGS WILL
ALSO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH MVFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. BY TUESDAY MORNING LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER WESTERN NY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND RESULT IN IFR CIGS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
NY BY AROUND 12Z TUE. EXPECT THIS IFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND NORTHEAST FLOW. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AS WELL...AND COMBINE WITH BR TO PRODUCE AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR VSBY ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN...
RAIN LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...SMITH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201424
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A GOOD NUMBER OF RETURNS CROSSING WESTERN NY
AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...HOWEVER AN EXAMINATION OF SURFACE
OBS SHOW LITTLE OF THIS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. CASE IN
POINT...KERI HAD AN AREA OF 30 DBZ ALOFT CROSS OVER THE PAST HOUR
YET FAILED TO MEASURE ANY PRECIP. 12Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWING AN
EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 875MB-700MB WHICH IS PRODUCING PLENTY
OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION. IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON FOR
BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE TO ARRIVE IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE THIS DRY
LAYER COMPLETELY. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO JUST SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW MEASURING
SHOWERS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS
MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL
SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTS OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 50 ON THE HILLS.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...NONETHELESS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RIDGE...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO
QUEBEC WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THIS FEATURE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MILDER AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT KEEPS READINGS JUST A HAR BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING BUT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR FOR KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE
LOW SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL HANG IN ALL DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST OF THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE MICHIGAN U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS PRESENT 5-10KFT PER 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF SHOWERS TO COVER FOR THE CURRENT
RETURNS TO OUR WEST BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD DRY UP/WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS MORNINGS
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...NONETHELESS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RIDGE...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO
QUEBEC WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THIS FEATURE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MILDER AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT KEEPS READINGS JUST A HAR BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR FOR
KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
752 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL HANG IN ALL DAY TODAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST OF THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA. A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
FROM THE MICHIGAN U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY INTO THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO SATURATE AS PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS PRESENT 5-10KFT PER 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING. HAVE SPED UP TIMING OF SHOWERS TO COVER FOR THE CURRENT
RETURNS TO OUR WEST BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD DRY UP/WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS MORNINGS
SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE LIFTS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TRACKS NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO FROM THE NORTH. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY...NONETHELESS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECT CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE PA BORDER. WE SHOULD THEN
SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SATURDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH SUNSHINE AND MILD TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.

BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
A BROAD AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE GENERAL
POSITION AND TIMING OF THE RIDGE...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES REGARDING A
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCTIC INTO
QUEBEC WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING THIS FEATURE JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
SPREAD ARCTIC AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MILDER AIR
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A COMPROMISE
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THAT KEEPS READINGS JUST A HAR BELOW AVERAGE
FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY WITH MID LEVEL
CIGS GRADUALLY LOWERING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
ACROSS WNY THIS MORNING BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SHOWERS. MVFR FOR
KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 200900
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TODAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN MICHIGAN. THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW ARE HELPING TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MICHIGAN
U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE AS PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IS PRESENT 5-15KFT PER 00Z KBUF SOUNDING. WHILE THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS
MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL
SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE
MID 50S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING
AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJHW LATER
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200900
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
500 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TODAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN MICHIGAN. THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE LOW ARE HELPING TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MICHIGAN
U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY INTO THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE AS PLENTY
OF DRY AIR IS PRESENT 5-15KFT PER 00Z KBUF SOUNDING. WHILE THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS WHICH GENERALLY SHIFT THIS
MORNINGS SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO UNTIL THE LOWER LEVEL
SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE
MID 50S.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHARPENS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CENTER OVER THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY 12Z TUESDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A FEW TIME SECTIONS
WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE ELEVATED SO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE
INTENSITY SHOWERS MAY WORK OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
OVERNIGHT. QPF THROUGH 12Z WILL AVERAGE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH A TENTH OR TWO POSSIBLE TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW YORK. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS LIMITED TO THE MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION WILL BE
CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD. AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BY TUESDAY EVENING THIS UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK ACROSS
THE REGION WILL AID IN A TRANSITION FROM SHOWERS OVER TO A MORE
STRATIFORM REGIME OF LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN
DRIZZLE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO.

THE RATHER CLOUDY GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...MAINTAINING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. HOWEVER WE SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST AND DRY AIR ALOFT ENCROACHES ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE WEST. THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO BE HAD ON WEDNESDAY... AND INDEED BY THURSDAY
THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AS THE LOW DRIFTS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRESH SHOT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED TOWARDS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE PRODUCING PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS RUNNING IN THE 50S TUESDAY. COOLER
AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW SHOULD YIELD
CHILLIER READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
BY THURSDAY WE RETURN TO THE 50S AS COMPARATIVELY MILDER MOIST
ATLANTIC AIR MOVES BACK ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL REFLECT THIS
PATTERN WITH 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING
AND DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJHW LATER
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 200636
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TODAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS DESPITE TEMPS DIPPING INTO UPPER TO MID 30S THIS MORNING.
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER MAY
DROP AS LOW AS AROUND 30 BUT THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED
HERE.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MICHIGAN
U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS
NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJHW LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200636
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER NEW YORK THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST TODAY. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER TODAY
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH
SHOWERS ARRIVING BY THIS EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY CROSSES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK AHEAD OF AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
THIS MORNING. JUST A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH
SHOWERS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL YOU LOOK BACK WEST ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS DESPITE TEMPS DIPPING INTO UPPER TO MID 30S THIS MORNING.
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER MAY
DROP AS LOW AS AROUND 30 BUT THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED
HERE.

THE CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MICHIGAN
U.P. EAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GEORGIAN BAY BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY AND LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE HELD TO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS
NAM/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER...ASSOCIATED WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AS MULTIPLE NOTEWORTHY SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH ITS
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW...AND WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A
DEEP CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW INITIALLY
OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT TIME...THIS
REINVIGORATED FEATURE WILL THEN INTENSIFY INTO A FULL BLOWN
NOR`EASTER... WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
DOMINATING OUR REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
WETTEST OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS...WHEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL COMBINE
TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL...FOR WHICH HIGHER-END
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. ON THE FRONT /AND WARMER/ SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM...EXPECT THE PRECIP TO COME IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN IN
TIME FOR TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.
WHILE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS 24-HOUR PERIOD WILL NOT BE
EXCESSIVE BY ANY MEANS...THESE SHOULD STILL AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF
A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LOWERING IN RAIN POTENTIAL FOR A
TIME AS THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM`S ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
REDEVELOPING LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...THOUGH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW/MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL STILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED LOWER-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE BULK OF THE
AREA. AFTER THAT...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO INCREASE AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE DEVELOPING
NOR`EASTER STRENGTHENS AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...AND FEEDS INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT WESTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND INTO NEW YORK STATE. ACROSS OUR AREA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP DURING THIS LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO A RENEWED LIKELIHOOD FOR
RAIN. FURTHER WEST...RAIN POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE CHANCE RANGE WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT AND
DISTANCE FROM THE COASTAL LOW...THOUGH WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWER
TO MID 50S EACH DAY. MEANWHILE...INITIALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE NIGHTTIME
LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AS COOLER AIR GETS DRAWN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NOR`EASTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE VERTICALLY-STACKED COASTAL LOW
FINALLY EJECTS OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH
PRESSURE/DRIER AIR ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE. THIS STATED...LEFTOVER SHOWER
CHANCES WILL STILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...BEFORE THESE END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO FINALLY RECOVER BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS ON FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S EAST TO
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE NEXT
NORTHERN-STREAM LOW PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH BETWEEN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION...WHICH COULD BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THIS FEATURE...THE GUIDANCE ALSO LOOSELY
AGREES ON A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY...
THOUGH IT ALSO REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXTENT OF
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE 12Z/19 ECMWF
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER/COLDER THAN THE CORRESPONDING RUN OF THE GFS.
FACED WITH THIS DIFFERENCE AT THIS DISTANT JUNCTURE...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE SCENARIO FOR SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
HIGHS OF 55-60 DEGREES ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 00Z. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KJHW LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THE MICHIGAN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL APPROACH LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH TODAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN END OF
LAKE ERIE PUSHING INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND NORTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities