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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW PA
AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF LASTING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 010003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY THURSDAY. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NW PA
AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WITH THE ADDED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF LASTING DEEP INTO THE
NIGHT. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND
HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAIN AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS TO PASS
OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND MILD...WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
GIVING A SOMEWHAT MUGGY FEEL.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. LOCAL
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH COULD ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EVEN
BEHIND THE ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC SCALE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
SEVERAL ASSOCIATED WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THE NEXT AREA OF MORE
CONCENTRATED RAIN ACROSS NW PA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF HOLDING TOGETHER OVERNIGHT WITH BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE REACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
MVFR CIGS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LOWER CIGS WILL
SLOWLY MIX OUT BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A
LITTLE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...
MAINLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE NEAR KBUF-KIAG WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON LAKE
ERIE.

OTHERWISE PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
EARLY INDICATIONS OF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...FRANKLIN/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301955
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301955
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT
INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL
RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF
SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IT WILL LARGELY BE A QUIET INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO OUR NORTH MAY DIP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
REGION TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EQUATORWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING IN A 20 POP ELSEWHERE...BUT OVERALL IT
SHOULD BE A LARGELY SUNNY AND MILD FOURTH OF JULY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CLEAR AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SIMILARLY MILD FOR THE FIREWORKS SATURDAY
NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER BY MONDAY WE SHOULD START
TO SEE READINGS CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE REGION. THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MORE SO INTO TUESDAY AS GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
INDICATES ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE ERIE.  OTHERWISE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301911
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK...WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD
DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT
THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301741
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE- COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
19Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPTATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT
THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301741
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE-
COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. A DECENT MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF TORONTO WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND SWING ITS TRAILING PRE- COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN THE NORTH COUNTRY BY
19Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOST CLOUD DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2K FT CIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT.

BREAK IN PRECIPTATION OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF TORONTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT
THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. THIS STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301426
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TIER BY 15Z...FINGER LAKES BY 16Z...AND NORTH COUNTRY BY
17Z. MOST CLOUD DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2-3K FT CIGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301426
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TIER BY 15Z...FINGER LAKES BY 16Z...AND NORTH COUNTRY BY
17Z. MOST CLOUD DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2-3K FT CIGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301426
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE LARGELY BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM AND AS
SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS
THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE LEFT
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL RUN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING
HOWEVER AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM CANADA...ALLOWING
FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE...IN THE LOW 70S. THE ONLY CATCH IS
THAT WITH THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH STILL MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...WE MAY SEE A FEW BRIEF
SHOWERS POP UP ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S. A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCALES IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY MAY EVEN DIP JUST BELOW THE 50
DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD THOUGH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE DIFFUSE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RUNNING CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY...WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TIER BY 15Z...FINGER LAKES BY 16Z...AND NORTH COUNTRY BY
17Z. MOST CLOUD DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2-3K FT CIGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301338
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FALL-LIKE JET STREAM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PLACE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. DESPITE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS WILL MEAN A
BREAK FROM AN OTHERWISE BUSY MONTH WHERE RAINFALL WAS FREQUENT AND
PLENTIFUL TO THE TUNE OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE TO THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS THAT H85 TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...SOMETHING THAT IS
NOT TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AUGUST.

DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
IAG FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
(0-6KM <35 KNOTS) WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER RISK FOR SUCH WOULD BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORESO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MORE LIKELY JUST KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN A STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. WILL
ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FOR THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE PROMISE
OF DELIGHTFUL WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH SPECTACULAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES OFFERING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TIER BY 15Z...FINGER LAKES BY 16Z...AND NORTH COUNTRY BY
17Z. MOST CLOUD DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2-3K FT CIGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301338
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE
BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS
FEATURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND UPSTATE NEW
YORK.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
CONTINUING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FALL-LIKE JET STREAM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PLACE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. DESPITE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS WILL MEAN A
BREAK FROM AN OTHERWISE BUSY MONTH WHERE RAINFALL WAS FREQUENT AND
PLENTIFUL TO THE TUNE OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE TO THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS THAT H85 TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...SOMETHING THAT IS
NOT TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AUGUST.

DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
IAG FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
(0-6KM <35 KNOTS) WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER RISK FOR SUCH WOULD BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORESO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MORE LIKELY JUST KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN A STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. WILL
ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FOR THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE PROMISE
OF DELIGHTFUL WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH SPECTACULAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES OFFERING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN GENESEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN TIER BY 15Z...FINGER LAKES BY 16Z...AND NORTH COUNTRY BY
17Z. MOST CLOUD DECKS WILL BE 3-5K FT...WITH 2-3K FT CIGS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301142
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
742 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WHILE BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF THIS WRITING...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO
NOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF A SWATH OF LIKELY POPS TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARM FRONT
ITSELF PASSING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE FINGER
LAKES THIS MORNING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...A SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WARM SECTOR WILL
OVERSPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...SO WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...IT WILL LIKELY ALSO NOT BE TOTALLY DRY WITH SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN DROPPING POPS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND HAVE RETAINED AT LEAST SOME
LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL LINGERING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN THE FORECAST...HAVE COVERED THIS SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BECOME
NONEXISTENT EITHER AS ONE OR MORE HARDER-TO-DEFINE SPOKES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL LIKELY BE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT MORE GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO MOSTLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING
THIS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FALL-LIKE JET STREAM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PLACE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. DESPITE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS WILL MEAN A
BREAK FROM AN OTHERWISE BUSY MONTH WHERE RAINFALL WAS FREQUENT AND
PLENTIFUL TO THE TUNE OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE TO THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS THAT H85 TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...SOMETHING THAT IS
NOT TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AUGUST.

DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
IAG FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
(0-6KM <35 KNOTS) WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER RISK FOR SUCH WOULD BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORESO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MORE LIKELY JUST KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN A STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. WILL
ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FOR THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE PROMISE
OF DELIGHTFUL WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH SPECTACULAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES OFFERING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ABOVE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION OTHERWISE TENDING TO REMAIN MUCH
MORE SCATTERED THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME.

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO PREVAIL
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...WHILE IN A MORE GENERAL SENSE
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION...
PARTICULARLY ANY ACTIVITY TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO
BOUNDARIES REFERENCED ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301142
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
742 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WHILE BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF THIS WRITING...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD. ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO
NOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY ITSELF.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF A SWATH OF LIKELY POPS TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARM FRONT
ITSELF PASSING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE FINGER
LAKES THIS MORNING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...A SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WARM SECTOR WILL
OVERSPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...SO WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...IT WILL LIKELY ALSO NOT BE TOTALLY DRY WITH SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN DROPPING POPS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND HAVE RETAINED AT LEAST SOME
LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL LINGERING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN THE FORECAST...HAVE COVERED THIS SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BECOME
NONEXISTENT EITHER AS ONE OR MORE HARDER-TO-DEFINE SPOKES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL LIKELY BE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT MORE GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO MOSTLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING
THIS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FALL-LIKE JET STREAM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PLACE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. DESPITE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS WILL MEAN A
BREAK FROM AN OTHERWISE BUSY MONTH WHERE RAINFALL WAS FREQUENT AND
PLENTIFUL TO THE TUNE OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE TO THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS THAT H85 TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...SOMETHING THAT IS
NOT TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AUGUST.

DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
IAG FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
(0-6KM <35 KNOTS) WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER RISK FOR SUCH WOULD BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORESO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MORE LIKELY JUST KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN A STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. WILL
ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FOR THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE PROMISE
OF DELIGHTFUL WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH SPECTACULAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES OFFERING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ABOVE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION OTHERWISE TENDING TO REMAIN MUCH
MORE SCATTERED THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME.

AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL TEND TO PREVAIL
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT...WHILE IN A MORE GENERAL SENSE
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION...
PARTICULARLY ANY ACTIVITY TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO
BOUNDARIES REFERENCED ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WHILE BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF THIS WRITING...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERAL
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN NEW YORK...
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO NOTED TO OUR SOUTH
OVER PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF A SWATH OF LIKELY POPS TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARM FRONT
ITSELF PASSING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE FINGER
LAKES THIS MORNING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...A SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WARM SECTOR WILL
OVERSPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...SO WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...IT WILL LIKELY ALSO NOT BE TOTALLY DRY WITH SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN DROPPING POPS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY...AND HAVE RETAINED AT LEAST SOME
LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL LINGERING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN THE FORECAST...HAVE COVERED THIS SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BECOME
NONEXISTENT EITHER AS ONE OR MORE HARDER-TO-DEFINE SPOKES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL LIKELY BE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT MORE GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO MOSTLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING
THIS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FALL-LIKE JET STREAM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PLACE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. DESPITE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS WILL MEAN A
BREAK FROM AN OTHERWISE BUSY MONTH WHERE RAINFALL WAS FREQUENT AND
PLENTIFUL TO THE TUNE OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE TO THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS THAT H85 TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...SOMETHING THAT IS
NOT TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AUGUST.

DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
IAG FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
(0-6KM <35 KNOTS) WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER RISK FOR SUCH WOULD BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORESO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MORE LIKELY JUST KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN A STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. WILL
ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FOR THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE PROMISE
OF DELIGHTFUL WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH SPECTACULAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES OFFERING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ABOVE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION OTHERWISE TENDING TO REMAIN MUCH
MORE SCATTERED THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME.

AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS THAT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND
TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES REFERENCED
ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
431 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WHILE BRINGING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE
TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS OF THIS WRITING...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE
WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...SEVERAL
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN NEW YORK...
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO NOTED TO OUR SOUTH
OVER PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD AND CROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...WHILE CONTINUING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS NORTH INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE
IDEA OF A SWATH OF LIKELY POPS TRAVERSING THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARM FRONT
ITSELF PASSING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND MOST OF THE FINGER
LAKES THIS MORNING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...A SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WARM SECTOR WILL
OVERSPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...SO WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOME FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...IT WILL LIKELY ALSO NOT BE TOTALLY DRY WITH SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL BE PRESENT IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT IN DROPPING POPS FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT TODAY...AND HAVE RETAINED AT LEAST SOME
LOW TO MID-RANGE CHANCE POPS TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL LINGERING
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.

BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE
PIVOTING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A PRE-COLD-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. IN THE PRESENCE OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING DIURNAL INSTABILITY...THESE FEATURES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHERE OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION THEN WORKING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN THE FORECAST...HAVE COVERED THIS SECOND
BATCH OF CONVECTION WITH A ROUND OF HIGH LIKELY POPS...WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES FOCUSED FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...OUR REGION WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT ONLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE LACK OF AN ADDITIONAL WELL-DEFINED SURFACE-BASED
FOCUSING MECHANISM TO FOCUS CONVECTION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ALSO ON THE WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD A BIT
FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WILL DEFINITELY NOT BECOME
NONEXISTENT EITHER AS ONE OR MORE HARDER-TO-DEFINE SPOKES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL STILL LIKELY BE PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION
ALOFT. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT MORE GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH RESPECT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYWHERE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING...WHICH REMAINS RATHER QUESTIONABLE AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. COUPLING THIS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY
ABOUT 30 KNOTS...FEEL THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY... WITH THE
BETTER PROBABILITIES FOR SUCH REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST
WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR AND A BETTER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD BOTH BE IN PLACE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO MOSTLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. FOLLOWING
THIS...LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE FALL-LIKE JET STREAM PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN PLACE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WILL DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY HOLD OUR TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW EARLY JULY NORMALS...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
50S. DESPITE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...WE CAN EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO START THE MONTH OF JULY. THIS WILL MEAN A
BREAK FROM AN OTHERWISE BUSY MONTH WHERE RAINFALL WAS FREQUENT AND
PLENTIFUL TO THE TUNE OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. ONE
INTERESTING SIDE NOTE TO THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS THAT H85 TEMPS
REMAIN BELOW ZERO IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...SOMETHING THAT IS
NOT TYPICALLY SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS UNTIL MID TO LATE
AUGUST.

DIGGING INTO THE DETAILS...A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE OTTAWA VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT
WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
IAG FRONTIER WHERE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AMOUNT OF ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
(0-6KM <35 KNOTS) WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A HIGHER RISK FOR SUCH WOULD BE FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND MORESO OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

A SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MORE LIKELY JUST KEEP MOST
AREAS FROM COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT.

WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY...THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AS
WELL. THE COOLER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT
IN A STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. WILL
ADD SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON FOR THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE PROMISE
OF DELIGHTFUL WEATHER TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH SPECTACULAR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THOSE COMMUNITIES OFFERING FIREWORKS
DISPLAYS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY AND
UNEVENTFUL... BUT AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKENDS...MOTHER NATURE CANT HELP BUT TO KEEP SOME `FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT`.

A WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT WIND SHIFT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. FROM THIS
VANTAGE POINT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH LIFT AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS A
LITTLE TO LOW CHC FROM CONTINUITY.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ANY PCPN FROM THE WEAK SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY NIGHTFALL...AS THE
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF FIREWORKS DISPLAYS SATURDAY EVENING.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD FAVOR
SUNDAY AS HAVING THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE LONG WEEKEND...AS AMPLE
SUNSHINE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY WARM AND HUMID EARLY
SUMMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 80.

ON MONDAY...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE PROBLEM-
FREE...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION WESTWARD TO LAKE ERIE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TODAY...THEN LIFTS INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT.
IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE ABOVE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH CONVECTION OTHERWISE TENDING TO REMAIN MUCH
MORE SCATTERED THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME.

AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS THAT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND
TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES REFERENCED
ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT TODAY
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
STATED... LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/WAVES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300609
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...RATHER BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH ITS WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM NE OHIO/WESTERN
PA...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY DRYING UP AS
IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER NEW YORK STATE...HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS FROM OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A GENERAL LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS ROCHESTER BY DAYBREAK. AS WEAK TO MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS INTO OUR REGION...THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILDER NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. NAM MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS
TIMING OF A VORT MAX THAT LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS OF 06Z WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS
FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE ABOVE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CONVECTION OTHERWISE TENDING TO REMAIN MUCH MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS THAT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND
TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANY ACTIVITY
TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES REFERENCED ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300609
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...RATHER BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH ITS WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM NE OHIO/WESTERN
PA...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY DRYING UP AS
IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER NEW YORK STATE...HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS FROM OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A GENERAL LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS ROCHESTER BY DAYBREAK. AS WEAK TO MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS INTO OUR REGION...THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILDER NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. NAM MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS
TIMING OF A VORT MAX THAT LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS OF 06Z WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS
FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE ABOVE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CONVECTION OTHERWISE TENDING TO REMAIN MUCH MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS THAT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND
TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANY ACTIVITY
TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES REFERENCED ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300609
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...RATHER BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH ITS WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FROM NE OHIO/WESTERN
PA...ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT REGION OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY DRYING UP AS
IT MOVES INTO THE DRIER AIRMASS OVER NEW YORK STATE...HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS FROM OUR EXISTING
CONTINUITY...THOUGH STILL EXPECT A GENERAL LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS ROCHESTER BY DAYBREAK. AS WEAK TO MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS INTO OUR REGION...THERE WILL ALSO BE
THE CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILDER NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. NAM MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS
TIMING OF A VORT MAX THAT LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD/DIFFUSE LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AS OF 06Z WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TUESDAY...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY NIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS
FEATURE WILL SWING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
QUICKLY BY A TRAILING PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE ABOVE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS
FOR A COUPLE ROUNDS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
CONVECTION OTHERWISE TENDING TO REMAIN MUCH MORE SCATTERED DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS JUNCTURE IT APPEARS THAT WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TEND
TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY ANY ACTIVITY
TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES REFERENCED ABOVE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300320
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. TWO OF THE MORE PROMINENT DISTURBANCES HAVE TRIGGERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLIER TODAY. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING
TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FROM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AS OF 3Z WITH MESO MODELS AND RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
THEN SHIFTING THESE SHOWERS NORTH TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
GENESEE VALLEY NEAR 6Z. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z PER LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLIP BACK TO AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT WITH THE
INCREASE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. NAM MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS
TIMING OF A VORT MAX THAT LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED 8-12Z. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH/BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A DISTURBANCE SHIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300320
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. TWO OF THE MORE PROMINENT DISTURBANCES HAVE TRIGGERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLIER TODAY. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING
TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FROM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AS OF 3Z WITH MESO MODELS AND RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
THEN SHIFTING THESE SHOWERS NORTH TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
GENESEE VALLEY NEAR 6Z. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z PER LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLIP BACK TO AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT WITH THE
INCREASE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. NAM MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS
TIMING OF A VORT MAX THAT LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED 8-12Z. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH/BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A DISTURBANCE SHIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300320
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT. TWO OF THE MORE PROMINENT DISTURBANCES HAVE TRIGGERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLIER TODAY. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING
TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. THIS LOW AND
ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FROM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.

RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER AS OF 3Z WITH MESO MODELS AND RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
THEN SHIFTING THESE SHOWERS NORTH TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
GENESEE VALLEY NEAR 6Z. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z PER LATEST HRRR AND NAM RUNS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS ABOUT 500-1000
J/KG OF ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLIP BACK TO AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT WITH THE
INCREASE CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. NAM MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE OHIO VALLEY LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH OUR REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS
TIMING OF A VORT MAX THAT LOOKS TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
THESE TWO UNCERTAINTIES WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 70S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK WITH A FEW 80S POSSIBLE TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES WHICH MAY BRING
A HIGHER RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR IS SHOWING SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WITH
THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED 8-12Z. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH/BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOLLOWING THE IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A DISTURBANCE SHIFT OVER WESTERN NEW YORK.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300031
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
831 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF DIURNAL SHOWERS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OCCURRING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM STORMS IN THE
OHIO VALLEY IS ADVECTED NORTH.

AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
EVENING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE TWO MORE PROMINENT DISTURBANCES ARE TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FROM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MESO
MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 3Z
THEN NORTH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 6Z WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
SLIP BACK TO AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LATER THIS EVENING...WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF 6Z EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH/BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300031
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
831 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN WEDNESDAY. EACH OF THESE
PERIODS WILL FEATURE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF DIURNAL SHOWERS IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER OCCURRING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM STORMS IN THE
OHIO VALLEY IS ADVECTED NORTH.

AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS
EVENING WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT. THE TWO MORE PROMINENT DISTURBANCES ARE TRIGGERING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FROM WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST MESO
MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND 3Z
THEN NORTH INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 6Z WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH THE WARM FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
SLIP BACK TO AROUND 60 OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCREASE CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT SHOULD LARGELY BE
RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LATER THIS EVENING...WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF 6Z EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
SOME MVFR CIGS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH/BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THEN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EACH WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 3-5K FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 3-5K FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 3-5K FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE LIFTING
INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STORMS SHOULD BE FAST-MOVING ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
ZONES SEEING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OWING TO PROXIMITY TO DEEPER
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY. THAT
SAID...WESTERN NEW YORK WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AS SUCH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD WANE QUICKLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR SURGES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS REFRESHING AIRMASS WILL
SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SUNNY AND MILD DAYS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND EQUALLY MILD NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET END TO THE WEEK AS THE REGION WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CROSSING
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED RISING
HEIGHTS WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH IN TIME FOR
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE FRIDAY SHOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
DRY...THIS MAY NOT HOLD TRUE FOR SATURDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OF THE MODELS...THE ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
PHASING THESE TWO SYSTEMS...RESULTING IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEMS MORE SEPARATE...RESULTING IN WEAKER FORCING AND JUST A
CHANCE OF A LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OR TWO IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
AS A COMPROMISE PENDING GREATER CLARITY FROM FUTURE RUNS.

WHILE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY BY ALL ACCOUNTS AS THE
DISTURBANCES OF CONCERN WILL BE PAST THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
MEASURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
HELP MAINTAIN THE SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 3-5K FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 3-5K FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 3-5K FT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NY-PA BORDER
SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL REMAIN OVER
THE NIAGARA PENINSULA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291754
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291754
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291754
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291754
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS.

THE LOW WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS
FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW WILL DRIFT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY INLAND
AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN
TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLOUDS WITH NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM ABOUT TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS FORM WITH HEATING OF THE DAY.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS EVENING AND
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF
KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.

CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF
THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER 17Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291508
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1108 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-
SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW OVER MAINE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S WET
AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER... AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

SCT-BKN 3-5K FT CLOUD DECK WEST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED
BY ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291508
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1108 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-
SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW OVER MAINE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S WET
AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER... AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA AND CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
REMAIN EXPOSED TO THE PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER...WITH BREAKS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL GENERALLY RUN COOLER THAN
AVERAGE.

AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT IN THE TRAIN OF SYSTEMS
WILL BE AFFECTING THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW TRACKING IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
LIFTING INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE EVENING WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING TOWARDS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD NEGATE THE SEVERE THREAT...AND GIVEN THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF
THE FORCING...AM NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT
EITHER.

THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY AS
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF INTO
QUEBEC. GIVEN GOOD UPSLOPE FORCING ON WESTERLY FLOW...THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO ZONES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING DEPART THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD TAMP DOWN CONVECTION CONSIDERABLY.
THAT SAID...MODEL GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA AND GIVEN THAT WE WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ANY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL LEAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
ACROSS THE WEST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL THEN
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL SETTLE
ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC BASED
RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

SCT-BKN 3-5K FT CLOUD DECK WEST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED
BY ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH/WOOD
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-
SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW OVER MAINE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S WET
AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER... AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

SCT-BKN 3-5K FT CLOUD DECK WEST OF GENSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED BY ANY LINGERING
IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-
SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LOW OVER MAINE. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S WET
AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE
AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND
TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER... AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING
A FEW HOURS LATER. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT
SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

SCT-BKN 3-5K FT CLOUD DECK WEST OF GENSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED BY ANY LINGERING
IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JJR
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291102
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE WILL LIFT
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY
LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN
END...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS
RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH
A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM THE MAINE COASTLINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/ OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK
COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND THAT HAS
ALREADY REACHED FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE VFR CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY REACHED
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED
BY ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. WITH RECENT OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRMING THE
FASTER IMPROVING TREND HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE TIMING OF SUCH IN THE 12Z TAFS.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291102
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE WILL LIFT
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY
LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN
END...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS
RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH
A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM THE MAINE COASTLINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/ OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK
COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND THAT HAS
ALREADY REACHED FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE VFR CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY REACHED
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED
BY ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. WITH RECENT OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRMING THE
FASTER IMPROVING TREND HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE TIMING OF SUCH IN THE 12Z TAFS.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291102
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE WILL LIFT
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY
LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN
END...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS
RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH
A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM THE MAINE COASTLINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/ OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK
COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND THAT HAS
ALREADY REACHED FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE VFR CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY REACHED
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED
BY ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. WITH RECENT OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRMING THE
FASTER IMPROVING TREND HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE TIMING OF SUCH IN THE 12Z TAFS.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291102
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
702 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE MAINE COASTLINE WILL LIFT
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY
LEFTOVER SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN
END...WHILE ALSO HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS
RESPITE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH
A MAINLY DRY DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM THE MAINE COASTLINE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES/ OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK
COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY
DRIZZLE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE LOSE THE COOL CYCLONIC
FLOW AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...THE CLEARING TREND THAT HAS
ALREADY REACHED FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD...RESULTING IN LINGERING LOWER
CLOUDS LIFTING AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM WEST TO
EAST...THOUGH THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MAINE COASTLINE
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-
BASED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS
WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE VFR CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY REACHED
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AS OF THIS WRITING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY...WITH ANY LINGERING SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FIRST ENDING...FOLLOWED
BY ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR. WITH RECENT OBS
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS CONFIRMING THE
FASTER IMPROVING TREND HIGHLIGHTED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE TIMING OF SUCH IN THE 12Z TAFS.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
419 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN END...WHILE ALSO
HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A
PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS WE LOSE THE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY FOUND OVER OUR REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO START THE DAY
SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH
THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS... WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE 00Z PACKAGE BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
419 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN END...WHILE ALSO
HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A
PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS WE LOSE THE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY FOUND OVER OUR REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO START THE DAY
SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH
THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS... WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE 00Z PACKAGE BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
419 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN END...WHILE ALSO
HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A
PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS WE LOSE THE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY FOUND OVER OUR REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO START THE DAY
SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH
THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS... WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE 00Z PACKAGE BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290819
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
419 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY WHILE ALLOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LEFTOVER
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FINALLY COMING TO AN END...WHILE ALSO
HELPING TO ALLOW THE RETURN OF SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS RESPITE WILL BE SHORT
LIVED HOWEVER...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK...BEFORE A
PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES US WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT STORM
SYSTEM THAT PLAGUED THE REGION OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND WILL LIFT
FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/
OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE.

AS A RESULT...THE LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS WE LOSE THE COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY FOUND OVER OUR REGION.
AT THE SAME TIME...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO START THE DAY
SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY LIFT AND GIVE WAY TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH
THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITION WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED AT LEAST
SOMEWHAT BY THE FORMATION OF SOME DIURNAL CU AS THE SUN STARTS TO
WORK ON THE STILL-MOIST GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND`S
WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS... WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF THE PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND SOME MODEST WARMING ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTIVE
LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A
SIMILAR INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS LATER.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTIVE LIFT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD BECOME
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALSO DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE
GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS SEVERAL POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WITHIN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF THE COLD SEASON AND IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT WE HAVE BECOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR WITH
THE PAST TWO WINTERS. WHILE THIS JET STREAM PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...IT WILL RELAX A BIT BY LATE WEEK.
NEVERTHELESS...IT WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES NEAR TO...OR A JUST A
BIT BELOW NORMAL WHILE KEEPING REAL SUMMER HEAT IN THE FAR WEST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST THAT IS
SUPPORTING RECORD HEAT IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INCLUDES INCREDIBLY HIGH H85 TEMPS. AN ANALYSIS OF THE H85
CHARTS FROM LAST EVENING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 40 TO 44C TEMPS...
WHICH IS THE WARMEST THIS METEOROLOGIST CAN EVER REMEMBER SEEING.

GETTING TO THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST... A DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE
HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS MORNING WILL
ROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO PUSH A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...WHICH IN TURN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BULK OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
BE FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND MORE SPECIFIC...EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...IT
SHOULD LARGELY BE RAINFREE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE DURING THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL COME THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. AN ILL DEFINED SFC LOW
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THAT TIME...WITH A PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION. WHILE CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY INLAND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE IN ADVANCE
OF THE CONVECTION. THIS WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN
DETERMINING THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 35 KNOTS...WHICH
IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IF WE GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO BOOST
SBCAPES TO OVER 1000 J/KG...THEN THERE WILL BE A HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION AND THE SRN TIER EAST OF JAMESTOWN.

THE PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LAKE ERIE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD RENEW CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A WEALTH OF CLOUDS AND A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PREVENT
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAIN OF LK ONTARIO.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PROCESS. IN ITS WAKE...GENERAL SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING ANTICIPATED FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE PAYOFF FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER LEADING UP TO THIS POINT WILL
THEN COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS FAIR WEATHER WILL
SETTLE ACROSS ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WEAK...BUT EXPANSIVE SFC
BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PERIOD ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...AS A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE COUNTRY. WHILE BROAD TROUGHINESS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES... TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO EARLY JULY NORMALS.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY WILL
SUPPLY ANOTHER FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION...AS AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF 12C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 (MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SRN
TIER).

AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST AND RENEWED TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL MAKE AN ATTEMPT
TO PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH WOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY. FROM THIS FAR VANTAGE POINT... GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY NIGHT... PROMOTING
FAIR WEATHER FOR FOURTH OF JULY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
WITH FAIR WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
LIFT OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE 00Z PACKAGE BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED.

LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AFTER MIDNIGHT...CHANCES FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS
SOME WEAK TO MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ANY
SUCH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TODAY... BEFORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL FRESHEN A BIT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A BRIEF
RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...THE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE A CONTINUED
TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER...PROVIDING SOME HOPE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR A
PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND RAISED FORECAST HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS SAID...FURTHER SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT OUT
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF 06Z WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS PUSHING
INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...
THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A BRIEF
RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...THE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE A CONTINUED
TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER...PROVIDING SOME HOPE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR A
PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND RAISED FORECAST HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS SAID...FURTHER SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT OUT
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF 06Z WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS PUSHING
INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...
THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A BRIEF
RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...THE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE A CONTINUED
TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER...PROVIDING SOME HOPE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR A
PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND RAISED FORECAST HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS SAID...FURTHER SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT OUT
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF 06Z WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS PUSHING
INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...
THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290619
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A BRIEF
RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO GENERATE PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK...ALONG WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE. AS THE
RESPONSIBLE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...THE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP WILL HAVE A CONTINUED
TENDENCY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER...PROVIDING SOME HOPE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR A
PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND RAISED FORECAST HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS SAID...FURTHER SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL CONSOLIDATE AND LIFT OUT
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE IN ITS WAKE.

AS A RESULT...THE ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG/DRIZZLE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA AS OF 06Z WILL TEND TO GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR FIRST ARRIVING ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. IN THE
TAFS...THE TIMING OF THIS IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN SPED UP A BIT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON REGIONAL SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS...WHICH SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IS PUSHING
INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST AND GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING
SHOWER CHANCES RETURNING TO THE VCNTY OF KJHW BY 00Z TUESDAY...
THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...THOUGH WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND ATTENDANT REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290307
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A BRIEF
RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING PLACES THE CENTER OF A LARGE
SURFACE LOW NEAR ROME NEW YORK WITH SEVERAL WEAK SPOKES OR TROUGHS
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT ITS CENTER. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING
A MIX OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BUT A NOTABLE DOWN TICK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS
THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT BUT CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ON THE BACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM
OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER...PROVIDING SOME HOPE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR A
PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND RAISED FORECAST HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS SAID...FURTHER SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KIAG
WHICH HAS LIFTED TO VFR FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT KIAG SHOULD COME BACK DOWN INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KRME IS THE CULPRIT
OF THESE POOR CONDITIONS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHERLY ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE IFR IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LOOK FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON THOUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290307
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIFT OFF TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TAPERING OFF. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY BREAKS
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A BRIEF
RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING PLACES THE CENTER OF A LARGE
SURFACE LOW NEAR ROME NEW YORK WITH SEVERAL WEAK SPOKES OR TROUGHS
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT ITS CENTER. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING
A MIX OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA BUT A NOTABLE DOWN TICK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AS
THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT BUT CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ON THE BACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM
OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW
SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS TRENDED DRIER...PROVIDING SOME HOPE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND. BASED ON THIS...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR A
PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND RAISED FORECAST HIGHS TO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS SAID...FURTHER SHIFTS IN MODEL GUIDANCE
IS POSSIBLE THIS FAR OUT SO STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KIAG
WHICH HAS LIFTED TO VFR FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT KIAG SHOULD COME BACK DOWN INTO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KRME IS THE CULPRIT
OF THESE POOR CONDITIONS WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTHERLY ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE
FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE IFR IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. LOOK FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON THOUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290017
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
817 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS A BRIEF RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE
LOW NEAR SYRACUSE WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT
ITS CENTER. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ON THE BACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FROM HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD...THEN
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RAINFREE TIME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR KSYR CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. NORTHERLY
ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE IFR IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK
FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON THOUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290017
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
817 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS A BRIEF RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE
LOW NEAR SYRACUSE WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT
ITS CENTER. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ON THE BACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FROM HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD...THEN
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RAINFREE TIME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR KSYR CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. NORTHERLY
ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE IFR IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK
FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON THOUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290017
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
817 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS A BRIEF RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE
LOW NEAR SYRACUSE WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT
ITS CENTER. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ON THE BACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FROM HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD...THEN
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RAINFREE TIME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR KSYR CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. NORTHERLY
ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE IFR IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK
FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON THOUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290017
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
817 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS A BRIEF RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING PLACES THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE
LOW NEAR SYRACUSE WITH SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT
ITS CENTER. A MIX OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
ON THE BACK OF THE SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY
FOG...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FROM HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD...THEN
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RAINFREE TIME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR KSYR CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. NORTHERLY
ONSHORE AND UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE IFR IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOOK
FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON THOUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL DAY
ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK OF THE WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS A BRIEF RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF THE
LAST 24-30 HOURS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND THE DIMINISHED LOW IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE. NONETHELESS PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW AND THIS IS
CONTINUING TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW
CENTER FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL BACK FROM THE
NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND
PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FROM HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD...THEN
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RAINFREE TIME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION
AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ONSHORE
AND UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT WAVES HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO ALLOW REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. EXPECT
WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL
DAY ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL TEMPERATURES
AND SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO NEW ENGLAND. LOOK FOR A FEW SUNNY
BREAKS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING MORE SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE A PASSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS A BRIEF RESPITE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF THE
LAST 24-30 HOURS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY
AND THE DIMINISHED LOW IS NOW CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
STATE. NONETHELESS PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW AND THIS IS
CONTINUING TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW
CENTER FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...GIVEN CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL BACK FROM THE
NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND
PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURE FALLS TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

LOOK FOR GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS
A WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEVER GETS COMPLETELY
STRIPPED OUT...SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUD COVER RE-DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE WE BREAK OUT OF
THE MORNING STRATUS...NONETHELESS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNNY
BREAKS TO CONSTITUTE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AS COMPARED TO THE
GLOOMY WEATHER OF THIS WEEKEND. THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY TAMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOMEWHAT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER
FORECASTS AND HAVE BUMPED THE FORECAST DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE HILLTOPS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO DEPART.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE THAT WILL BE TRANSITING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES MONDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE A REFLECTION OF YET ANOTHER LOW THAT
WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST IN THE SUCCESSION OF FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THUS EXPECT THE QUIET WEATHER MONDAY
TO BE BUT A BRIEF RESPITE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. IN FACT THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS HERALDING THE APPROACH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM
MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA/EXTREME SW NY AS WE CLOSE OUT THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. INITIAL
SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH SHOWERS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WNY BY DAYBREAK.
WILL RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY...A BIT
MORE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUT A HOLD ON DEVELOPING INSTABILITY
EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...BUT INLAND AREAS FROM THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES REGION AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION WILL HAVE BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE...LI`S FALLING TO -3 TO -5C AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8C
IN THE 900-700 LAYER. IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY... A
MOIST (PWATS NEAR 1.50 INCHES) WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER
THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MID LEVEL TROUGH SEVERAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT A
STILL 30 KNOT LLJ COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THESE STORMS TO PRODUCE
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A DIMINISHING
TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL NEAR
THE REGION...THIS ONE ORIGINATING FROM THE POLAR REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOISTURE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE OVERALL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US...AND
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PATTERN WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SUMMER NORMALS. HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE LOWER 70S A GOOD 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 60 AT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE OVERNIGHT
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL START COOL AND LIKELY DRY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FUNNELING COOL AND DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. ALOFT A STILL PRESENCE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. WITH 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES AROUND +10 TO +12C OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 70S. A FEW UPPER 60S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COOLER HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS...A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CROSS
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE IS NOT STRONG...BUT COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A DRY OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD.

ON FRIDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...RETURNING MOISTURE
BACK TO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...THOUGH ITS TRACK IS STILL DEBATABLE BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

FROM HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE...WITH THE ECMWF FARTHER
NORTHWARD WITH THE NEXT WEEKEND SHORTWAVE. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A
ANOTHER WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE...BUT IF THE GFS VERIFIES...KEEPING
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTHWARD...THEN
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RAINFREE TIME. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION
AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ONSHORE
AND UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT WAVES HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO ALLOW REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. EXPECT
WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL
DAY ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
NEXT TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE ON THIS
UPDATE...AND PREVIOUS DISCO IS BELOW...

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION
AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ONSHORE
AND UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT WAVES HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO ALLOW REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. EXPECT
WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL
DAY ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR/THOMAS
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
NEXT TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE ON THIS
UPDATE...AND PREVIOUS DISCO IS BELOW...

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION
AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ONSHORE
AND UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT WAVES HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO ALLOW REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. EXPECT
WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL
DAY ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR/THOMAS
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
NEXT TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE ON THIS
UPDATE...AND PREVIOUS DISCO IS BELOW...

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR BREAKS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION
AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS ONSHORE
AND UPSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE HELP OF LINGERING WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE CROSSES THE AREA. LOOK FOR IMPROVEMENT AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EXIT THE
REGION...TAKING WITH IT THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15Z MON. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY 00Z ACROSS FAR SW NY.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT WAVES HAVE COME DOWN ENOUGH ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO ALLOW REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE. EXPECT
WINDS AND WAVES TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRANQUIL
DAY ON THE LAKES BEFORE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
ONTARIO...THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND THE BULK
OF THE WAVE ACTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO CANADIAN WATERS.
OTHERWISE NO OTHER MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THIS COMING WEEK
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR/THOMAS
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
NEXT TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE ON THIS
UPDATE...AND PREVIOUS DISCO IS BELOW...

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF -RA/DZ WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SLOW MOVING AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
THE IFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT AS WELL BEFORE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA...TAKING MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW
CIGS WITH IT.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO...WINDS
ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TO WARRANT DROPPING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH WITH A LONG ENOUGH FETCH TO WARRANT LEAVING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE UP FOR THE
TIME BEING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...AS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHC FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR/THOMAS
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281456
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1056 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ENDING EARLY MONDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
NEXT TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE ON THIS
UPDATE...AND PREVIOUS DISCO IS BELOW...

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR CIGS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF -RA/DZ WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS A SLOW MOVING AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM MEANDERS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.
THE IFR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT AS WELL BEFORE THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA...TAKING MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW
CIGS WITH IT.


OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND LATER
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO...WINDS
ON THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TO WARRANT DROPPING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...HOWEVER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOWN THE LAKE
REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH WITH A LONG ENOUGH FETCH TO WARRANT LEAVING
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE UP FOR THE
TIME BEING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE BY THE END OF THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...AS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHC FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR/THOMAS
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW CIGS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT WAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MATURE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS TO FURTHER SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO EXPIRE BY MIDDAY. DESPITE THE
LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVES THOUGH... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...AS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHC FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281150
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOW CIGS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT WAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MATURE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS TO FURTHER SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO EXPIRE BY MIDDAY. DESPITE THE
LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVES THOUGH... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...AS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHC FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280914
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT
WAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MATURE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS TO FURTHER SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO EXPIRE BY MIDDAY. DESPITE THE
LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVES THOUGH... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...AS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHC FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280914
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. OUR CURRENT AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OF HAVING A PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE EAST IS TYPICALLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG RIDGE OUT WEST. INTERESTINGLY...WHILE THIS
PATTERN IS SUPPORTING OUR VERY COOL WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...IT IS
ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A ONCE IN A GENERATION LATE JUNE HEAT WAVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT
WAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MATURE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS TO FURTHER SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO EXPIRE BY MIDDAY. DESPITE THE
LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVES THOUGH... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...AS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHC FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280829
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
429 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
PRODUCE A CHILLY DAMP DAY ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS MORE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF OCTOBER.
SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT CAN THEN BE EXPECTED AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RETURN TO
SUNSHINE TO THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE THE RAIN WILL FINALLY MOVE
OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MATURE...VERTICALLY STACKED STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE A DAMP DREARY DAY ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. WHILE THE AGING SYSTEM
WILL NOT HAVE THE STRONG DYNAMICS THAT IT DID DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS WHEN IT GENERATED AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN OVER THE BULK OF
THE FORECAST AREA...A WEALTH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN
PLACE.

THIS MOISTURE...FOUND WITHIN A DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...WILL SUPPORT
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA. GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY THE 1.5 PV SFC
BEING PUSHED AS LOW AS 975MB. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THE OCCLUSION
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL PRODUCE ENHANCED AREAS OF RAIN FOR
THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...THEN AS WORK DEEPER INTO
THE DAY...ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE GENERATED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA BY A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD DIRECT THE
MOST WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL RANGE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO ROUGHLY A HALF INCH EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO (MAINLY COURTESY OF THE EARLY MORNING RAIN).

THE RAINY WEATHER TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE MERCURY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 IN MOST AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH EQUATES TO READINGS THAT ARE MORE TYPICAL
OF OCTOBER. AT THESE LEVELS...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THESE INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN.

TONIGHT...THE ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL WEAKEN AS A
RESULT...AND WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS REMOVING THE BULK OF THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE ONSET OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL TAPER OFF AND END. THE PCPN EAST OF
LK ONTARIO WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER INTO THE DAY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR DAYTIME
LEVELS...AS PLENTY OF LOW CLOUD COVER WILL ONLY ALLOW THE MERCURY
TO SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE THAT PLAGUED
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS AROUND
THE BASE OF THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND AIDS IN THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND
SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A WEAK COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

CONSEQUENTLY...LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND FROM ROUGHLY THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN...WITH THE LAST OF THESE LIKELY EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS AT THE START OF THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY THE LAST TO SEE THIS
IMPROVEMENT. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH-NEEDED BREAK FROM
THIS WEEKEND`S WET AND GLOOMY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SUNSHINE AND SOME
MODEST WARMING ALOFT ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S FURTHER EAST.

THIS RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN INCREASING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER
TIME...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. GIVEN THE GENERAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER OF THIS PERIOD WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS FEATURE WILL FIRST PUSH ITS
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL TROUGH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES/ AVAILABLE IN THE PRESENCE
OF SUFFICIENT LIFT AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

SPEAKING OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR AS IF THERE
MAY BE AT LEAST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER TO EVEN
SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE 00Z/28 GUIDANCE
SUITE HAS TRENDED MORE BULLISH ON THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...WITH THE NAM/GFS IN PARTICULAR NOW SUGGESTING THAT
AS MUCH AS 1000-1800 J/KG OF SBCAPE COULD DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO... ALONG WITH LIFTED INDICES
FALLING TO BETWEEN -4 AND -8 CELSIUS. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
PREVAILING LARGER-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
PROVIDE RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH A GENERAL
35-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LEADING TO 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 35-45 KNOTS. COUPLING ALL OF THESE FACTORS
TOGETHER...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS...
WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO COINCIDE QUITE NICELY WITH THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR OUR AREA PORTRAYED IN THE NEW SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
WHILE WE WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO JUST YET
GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND THE CURRENT MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT... THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE BROAD SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER EITHER SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY... WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
LABRADOR...WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A STILL-MOIST
AIRMASS AND RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
PROBABLY LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT PROVIDES A RETURN TO
MAINLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THESE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE OUT A LITTLE BELOW EARLY SUMMER NORMALS GIVEN
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS OUR
REGION. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TUESDAY AND THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF WITH A
GENERALLY DRY AND UNEVENTFUL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE 00Z GFS/GEM ARE
NOW SPITTING OUT SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THIS FEATURE AND APPEARING OVERDONE COMPARED TO SOME OF THE OTHER
GUIDANCE...HAVE ELECTED TO STICK WITH OUR EXISTING MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONTINUITY AND A WPC/ECMWF- FAVORED DEPICTION OF A DRY DAY...ALONG
WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LONG INDEPENDENCE DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT NOTABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN VARIABILITIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...AS IS TYPICAL THIS FAR OUT IN
ADVANCE. GIVEN THESE...HAVE ELECTED TO LEAN CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE
AND THE GENERALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF
THIS PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL LOWER-END CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT
WAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONT.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A MATURE STORM SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS TO FURTHER SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON
THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO TO EXPIRE BY MIDDAY. DESPITE THE
LOWERING OF WINDS AND WAVES THOUGH... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE
WAVES.

THE RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER WILL BE A BRIEF ONE...AS CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
FRESHEN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...THERE WILL ONLY BE A LOW CHC FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING LIKELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE RISK FOR PROLONGED...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS
ENDED...MANY AREAS WILL STILL PICK UP ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE
FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.

LATER TODAY...THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE ITS STACKED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE UNUSUALLY DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH INCLUDES A 1.5 PV
INTRUSION TO NEARLY 975MB. THIS WILL BOIL DOWN TO MORE RAIN FOR
THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNRISE TO SUNSET SHOULD RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TO A HALF INCH
OR SO EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THE DAMP AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW TEMPERATURES AS THE MERCURY WILL
AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE HAVE A SHOT AT
BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM
CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS
AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH
THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT WAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND TROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY EXPIRED ON LAKE ERIE AND FOR
THE IAG RIVER/BUF HARBOR...AND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
DAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN FRESHEN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE RISK FOR PROLONGED...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS
ENDED...MANY AREAS WILL STILL PICK UP ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE
FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.

LATER TODAY...THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE ITS STACKED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE UNUSUALLY DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH INCLUDES A 1.5 PV
INTRUSION TO NEARLY 975MB. THIS WILL BOIL DOWN TO MORE RAIN FOR
THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNRISE TO SUNSET SHOULD RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TO A HALF INCH
OR SO EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THE DAMP AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW TEMPERATURES AS THE MERCURY WILL
AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE HAVE A SHOT AT
BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM
CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS
AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH
THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT WAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND TROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY EXPIRED ON LAKE ERIE AND FOR
THE IAG RIVER/BUF HARBOR...AND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
DAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN FRESHEN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF RUMBLE OR TWO OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE RISK FOR PROLONGED...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS
ENDED...MANY AREAS WILL STILL PICK UP ANOTHER QUARTER TO A HALF
INCH OF RAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL MAINLY BE THE CASE
FROM THE FINGER LAKES EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.

LATER TODAY...THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WHILE ITS STACKED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW WILL ENHANCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE UNUSUALLY DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHICH INCLUDES A 1.5 PV
INTRUSION TO NEARLY 975MB. THIS WILL BOIL DOWN TO MORE RAIN FOR
THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNRISE TO SUNSET SHOULD RANGE
FROM A QUARTER INCH OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES TO A HALF INCH
OR SO EAST OF LK ONTARIO. THE DAMP AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY LOW TEMPERATURES AS THE MERCURY WILL
AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F BELOW NORMAL. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 60. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH INCLUDE BUFFALO (63/2004)...ROCHESTER
(61/1919)...AND WATERTOWN (64/1968). ALL OF THESE HAVE A SHOT AT
BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM
CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS
AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STACKED...FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MORE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...ALTHOUGH
THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE AS HEAVY AS IT WAS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND TROUGH SUNDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY EXPIRED ON LAKE ERIE AND FOR
THE IAG RIVER/BUF HARBOR...AND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
DAY...WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.

MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN FRESHEN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1151 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO LATE THIS EVENING. A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
DIRECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER TO LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 40-50KT 850MB JET. SOUTH OF THIS FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...A DRY SLOT PER WV IMAGERY ALONG WITH A DIVERGENCE
MID-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE 500MB CUTOFF LOW COUNTIES TO FUEL
SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. 00Z
BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A 8-10 KFT MOIST
LAYER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO FAVOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS VERSES THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED DRIZZLE FROM
THE FORECAST. THIS IS BASED ON BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING A DEEP ENOUGH
LAYER OF SYNOPTIC LIFT COLLOCATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST...THERE WILL REMAIN
A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SUPPORT LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
RESULTING IN A GLOOMY SUNDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
VERY LIMITED FALLS IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED
TO DROP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LIKEWISE...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENED SUNDAY DUE
TO THE CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT...THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH AT BUFFALO (63/2004) ROCHESTER
(61/1919) AND WATERTOWN (64/1968) MAY ALL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING
BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER
WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NRN OH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER PASSING NEAR
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AROUND 04Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR AT 4Z WILL DROP TO
IFR LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KART AS WINDS BACK TO
NORTHERLY.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN PLAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INLAND.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND TROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE
DROPPED GALE WARNINGS FOR BOTH LAKES WITH ONLY SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN FRESHEN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1151 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE STALLED OVER NORTHEAST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A
CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS STALLED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO LATE THIS EVENING. A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BE
DIRECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER TO LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG A 40-50KT 850MB JET. SOUTH OF THIS FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK...A DRY SLOT PER WV IMAGERY ALONG WITH A DIVERGENCE
MID-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE 500MB CUTOFF LOW COUNTIES TO FUEL
SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST
AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. 00Z
BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A 8-10 KFT MOIST
LAYER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ENOUGH SYNOPTIC
FORCING TO FAVOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS VERSES THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED DRIZZLE FROM
THE FORECAST. THIS IS BASED ON BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING A DEEP ENOUGH
LAYER OF SYNOPTIC LIFT COLLOCATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT THE SHOWERS.

DESPITE THE REMOVAL OF DRIZZLE FROM THE FORECAST...THERE WILL REMAIN
A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SUPPORT LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
RESULTING IN A GLOOMY SUNDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
VERY LIMITED FALLS IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED
TO DROP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LIKEWISE...THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENED SUNDAY DUE
TO THE CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT...THE RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH AT BUFFALO (63/2004) ROCHESTER
(61/1919) AND WATERTOWN (64/1968) MAY ALL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING
BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER
WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NRN OH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER PASSING NEAR
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AROUND 04Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR AT 4Z WILL DROP TO
IFR LATER TONIGHT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KART AS WINDS BACK TO
NORTHERLY.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT IFR THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN PLAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG. SHOWERS LIKELY WELL INLAND.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND TROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE
DROPPED GALE WARNINGS FOR BOTH LAKES WITH ONLY SUB-GALE FORCE WINDS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
THEN FRESHEN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LATER TONIGHT...LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT
DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO THIS EVENING WITH A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTING A BAND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN IS ORIENTED
ALONG A 40-50KT 850MB JET AND IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...A DRY SLOT
PER WV IMAGERY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 500MB LOW. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EVEN BEING PICKED UP ON DETECTION NETWORKS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROVIDING EXTRA
LIFT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS THIS
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER. THIS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A STRONG UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
A GLOOMY SUNDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ARRIVAL
OF NOMINALLY WARMER AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY
LIMITED FALLS IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LIKEWISE...THE DIURNAL
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENED SUNDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH AT BUFFALO (63/2004) ROCHESTER (61/1919)
AND WATERTOWN (64/1968) MAY ALL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER
WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NRN OH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE LIFTING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE SOME DRIER AIR AND BETTER FORCING ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BROUGHT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
EVENING WITH LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S SOAKING RAINS.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
ENE...EXPECT UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 06Z AND LASTING INTO
MUCH OF SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS LIKELY
WELL INLAND. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. THE GALE
THREAT FOR LAKE ERIE HAS WANED AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE LONGER FETCH ALONG THE
AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HOWEVER KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT WARNINGS UP FOR THAT LAKE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR/OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN BROUGHT
BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS. THIS
IS ABOUT A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND WHAT WAS USED IN EARLIER RIVER FORECAST MODELS.
THESE HAVE BEEN RE-RUN WITH NEW DATA...RESULTING IN LOWER FORECAST
CRESTS. BECAUSE OF THE LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE IS A
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING IN MOST AREAS.

THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE STILL COULD ADD
SIGNIFICANT QPF...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING AND LOWER RIVER/CREEK FORECASTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LATER TONIGHT...LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT
DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO THIS EVENING WITH A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTING A BAND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN IS ORIENTED
ALONG A 40-50KT 850MB JET AND IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...A DRY SLOT
PER WV IMAGERY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 500MB LOW. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EVEN BEING PICKED UP ON DETECTION NETWORKS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROVIDING EXTRA
LIFT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS THIS
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER. THIS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A STRONG UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
A GLOOMY SUNDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ARRIVAL
OF NOMINALLY WARMER AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY
LIMITED FALLS IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LIKEWISE...THE DIURNAL
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENED SUNDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH AT BUFFALO (63/2004) ROCHESTER (61/1919)
AND WATERTOWN (64/1968) MAY ALL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER
WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NRN OH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE LIFTING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE SOME DRIER AIR AND BETTER FORCING ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BROUGHT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
EVENING WITH LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S SOAKING RAINS.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
ENE...EXPECT UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 06Z AND LASTING INTO
MUCH OF SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS LIKELY
WELL INLAND. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. THE GALE
THREAT FOR LAKE ERIE HAS WANED AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE LONGER FETCH ALONG THE
AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HOWEVER KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT WARNINGS UP FOR THAT LAKE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR/OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN BROUGHT
BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS. THIS
IS ABOUT A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND WHAT WAS USED IN EARLIER RIVER FORECAST MODELS.
THESE HAVE BEEN RE-RUN WITH NEW DATA...RESULTING IN LOWER FORECAST
CRESTS. BECAUSE OF THE LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE IS A
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING IN MOST AREAS.

THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE STILL COULD ADD
SIGNIFICANT QPF...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING AND LOWER RIVER/CREEK FORECASTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/APFFEL





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LATER TONIGHT...LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT
DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO THIS EVENING WITH A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTING A BAND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN IS ORIENTED
ALONG A 40-50KT 850MB JET AND IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...A DRY SLOT
PER WV IMAGERY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 500MB LOW. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EVEN BEING PICKED UP ON DETECTION NETWORKS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROVIDING EXTRA
LIFT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS THIS
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER. THIS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A STRONG UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
A GLOOMY SUNDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ARRIVAL
OF NOMINALLY WARMER AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY
LIMITED FALLS IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LIKEWISE...THE DIURNAL
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENED SUNDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH AT BUFFALO (63/2004) ROCHESTER (61/1919)
AND WATERTOWN (64/1968) MAY ALL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER
WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NRN OH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE LIFTING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE SOME DRIER AIR AND BETTER FORCING ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BROUGHT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
EVENING WITH LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S SOAKING RAINS.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
ENE...EXPECT UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 06Z AND LASTING INTO
MUCH OF SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS LIKELY
WELL INLAND. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. THE GALE
THREAT FOR LAKE ERIE HAS WANED AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE LONGER FETCH ALONG THE
AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HOWEVER KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT WARNINGS UP FOR THAT LAKE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR/OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN BROUGHT
BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS. THIS
IS ABOUT A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND WHAT WAS USED IN EARLIER RIVER FORECAST MODELS.
THESE HAVE BEEN RE-RUN WITH NEW DATA...RESULTING IN LOWER FORECAST
CRESTS. BECAUSE OF THE LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE IS A
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING IN MOST AREAS.

THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE STILL COULD ADD
SIGNIFICANT QPF...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING AND LOWER RIVER/CREEK FORECASTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/APFFEL




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LATER TONIGHT...LOW
CLOUDS...FOG AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY RESULTING IN A CHILLY AND SOMEWHAT
DREARY END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SUNNIER AND WARMER WEATHER MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
OHIO THIS EVENING WITH A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW DIRECTING A BAND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN IS ORIENTED
ALONG A 40-50KT 850MB JET AND IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA...A DRY SLOT
PER WV IMAGERY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 500MB LOW. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE EVEN BEING PICKED UP ON DETECTION NETWORKS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROVIDING EXTRA
LIFT AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS THIS
EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN BACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER. THIS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS...LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THERE WILL REMAIN A STRONG UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND THIS COUPLED WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN
A GLOOMY SUNDAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH ARRIVAL
OF NOMINALLY WARMER AIR BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN VERY
LIMITED FALLS IN TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. LIKEWISE...THE DIURNAL
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DAMPENED SUNDAY DUE TO THE
CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE. IN FACT...THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR JUNE 28TH AT BUFFALO (63/2004) ROCHESTER (61/1919)
AND WATERTOWN (64/1968) MAY ALL HAVE A SHOT AT BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK TO NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER AS THE LOW
EXITS EASTWARD WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL LINGER STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER
WHICH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHWEST FACING HILLS AND SLOPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH FROM THEIR COOL SUNDAY HIGHS...WITH
THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WITH SOME PATCHES OF
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REDUCING VISIBILITIES OVER PORTIONS OF WNY.

MONDAY WILL START GLOOMY WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT WITH WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING ALOFT. UNDER THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE
MAY STILL BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AROUND...MAINLY FROM
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. THROUGH THE DAY A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS RIDGE AXIS
IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WEEKEND STORM...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUDS AROUND UNTIL AT
LEAST THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH ERODES THE
STRATUS DECK OF CLOUDS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THE FAST MOVING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD...AND ALLOW FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO WORK THEIR WAY
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN A
TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
FEATURE WILL INCREASE BOTH ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. WITH SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. EXPECT COVERAGE AREA TO PEAK
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...COINCIDING WITH THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH ACTIVITY THEN DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALSO OF NOTE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL
TRACKING A SURFACE LOW JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME...ESPECIALLY IF WE
GET ANY AFTERNOON SUNSHINE TO INCREASE MIXING HEIGHTS. THOUGH THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS...THE LOW WILL NOT BE
DEEPENING AS IT PASSES BY. FOR NOW WILL HAVE WIND GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH
IN THE GRIDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN JEFFERSON AND THROUGH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AN ARCTIC SOURCE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH COVERAGE AREA SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHORTWAVE WHICH WAS PACIFIC BASED AND HAD
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...ONE THAT WILL USHER IN DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AT 850 HPA WILL AVERAGE AROUND 4 TO 7C ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING SHOULD BRING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY BACK UP INTO THE LOW 70S...THIS
AFTER A CHILLY START TO THE DAY.

BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MAINTAIN A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT RETURNS
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY...WITH SATURDAY POSSIBLY DRY AS ACTIVITY CARRIES
EASTWARD.

A COOL START TO THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...BUT FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT THE WEEKEND WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM NRN OH ALONG THE
NY/PA BORDER THROUGH SUNDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE LIFTING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE SOME DRIER AIR AND BETTER FORCING ALOFT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK HAS BROUGHT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR LATER THIS
EVENING WITH LOW STRATUS/AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY`S SOAKING RAINS.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
ENE...EXPECT UPSLOPE STRATUS ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 06Z AND LASTING INTO
MUCH OF SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. SHOWERS LIKELY
WELL INLAND. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN OHIO WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT AS IT DRIFTS EAST ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER BEFORE MOVING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY. THE GALE
THREAT FOR LAKE ERIE HAS WANED AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DOWNGRADED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE LONGER FETCH ALONG THE
AXIS OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HOWEVER KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT WARNINGS UP FOR THAT LAKE FOR THE
TIME BEING.

THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS ALONG THE NY/PA
BORDER AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN FRESHEN
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RADAR/OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN BROUGHT
BETWEEN AN INCH AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN TO MOST AREAS. THIS
IS ABOUT A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND WHAT WAS USED IN EARLIER RIVER FORECAST MODELS.
THESE HAVE BEEN RE-RUN WITH NEW DATA...RESULTING IN LOWER FORECAST
CRESTS. BECAUSE OF THE LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THERE IS A
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING IN MOST AREAS.

THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THESE STILL COULD ADD
SIGNIFICANT QPF...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS. ELSEWHERE...WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH DUE TO THE
DIMINISHED RISK FOR FLOODING AND LOWER RIVER/CREEK FORECASTS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/APFFEL





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