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000
FXUS61 KBUF 281426
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1026 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid summer conditions will remain in place through Sunday...as high
pressure anchored off the East Coast will continue to pump near
record warmth and moderately high humidity northwards across our
region. This environment will support a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon, with some potential for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening as
a weak trough crosses the region. A weak cold front will bring a
return to somewhat cooler and less humid air early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite imagery late this morning showing abundant
sunshine across the area with just some thin/high cirrus and a few
diurnal cumulus beginning to pop. Based on morning soundings and
mesoscale model data, any convection should not initiate until after
about 1pm.

Many consider Memorial Day weekend as the unofficial start of
summer...and it will certainly feel that way today as Mother Nature
will supply us with weather more typical of the Fourth of July.

The sultry conditions will be supported by an expansive area of high
pressure that has been anchored off the East Coast for the past
several days. This feature will combine with general troughiness
over the Plains states to keep a deep southerly flow of very warm
and increasingly humid air flowing north from a wide open Gulf of
Mexico. This persistent pattern has allowed our airmass to modify
each of the past few days...and today it should peak with H85 temps
climbing to around 18c. Given the general dry conditions of the past
couple weeks and high sun angle...this airmass will easily support
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lake
plains and valleys. The higher temperature should also include more
of the BUF and ART metro areas...as a weaker and slightly more
southerly synoptic flow should keep the cooling affects of the lake
breezes closer to the source. In fact...these readings will be very
close to record levels. See the climate section below for details.

As is usually the case with an increasingly uncomfortable mid summer
airmass...the environment will become more conducive for some
showers and thunderstorms. While this risk will be minimized today
by an amplifying mid level ridge (H5 hgts arnd 588dm)...there will
be a couple of lake breeze boundaries that will interact with the
favorable thermodynamic profile. One boundary will set up along Lake
Erie late this morning before slowly pushing east across the
Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes. A second...and possible
more pronounced boundary...will become established just south of
Lake Ontario. This second feature is not expected to push more than
20 miles south...basically remaining near or north of the NYS
Thruway. The boundaries will serve to focus some low level
convergence into an already unstable airmass...leading to some
afternoon convection.

Like yesterday (Fri)...diurnal heating will encourage SBCAPEs to
climb to between 1500-2000 j/kg. Without any real capping...this
energy will be found within a tall `skinny` profile...and with
little shear to work with...any thunderstorm should remain below
severe criteria. Even so...PWAT values averaging 1.5" with little
flow aloft will favor slow moving downpours for those few areas that
could experience a storm. Have thus added a little enhanced wording
to the package to cover this potential. For most areas though...
today will simply feature a fair amount of sun with plenty of warmth
and humidity.

Tonight...the localized forcing from the lake breeze boundaries will
once again give way to large scale processes as the overlying ridge
will regain full control. As a result...any leftover convection
early in the evening will dissipate...leaving a warm and sultry
night for the region. Temperatures tonight will remain a full 10 deg
f above normal late May levels...as mins will only be in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

Expect one more day of heat and humidity on Sunday with afternoon
high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s from the Niagara
Frontier to the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. The
Southern Tier will be less warm with highs in the lower 80s, the
temperature restricted by the pervasive cloud cover. There will be
another warm muggy night on tap Sunday night with temperatures only
lowering to the mid 60s in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will push into Western and North-Central New
York Monday Night in the wake of a cool frontal passage, ushering in
a period of quieter weather. This period of tranquil early summer
weather will be driven by upper level ridging that will be amplifying
over the Lower Great Lakes in response to a trough digging across
the Northern Rockies and Upper Missouri Valley. Dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average should
prevail at least through Wednesday Night.

While model guidance differs somewhat in terms of details, the
general trend for the latter portion of next week will be a return
to more unsettled weather as the upper level ridge either flattens
out or shifts off to the east, depending on the model solution.
Either way, this will pave the way for a return to more humid
conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday
will be the transition day between the outgoing ridging and incoming
troughing, so have elected to go with low chance pops for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered off the East Coast will extend far enough
back across the Lower Great Lakes to supply generally fair...VFR
weather across the region today. The exception will come this
afternoon when there will be the risk for a couple slow moving
thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Region.
There could even be a thunderstorm or two along a lake breeze
boundary that will be stationary between KIAG and KROC.

Any convection will dissipate early this evening. This will leave
VFR conditions across the region.

Outlook...
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening ridge centered off the East Coast will extend back
to the northwest and supply the Lower Great Lakes with another fine
day for recreational boating. This will include another day of
light winds and negligible waves. While some towering cumulus clouds
and possible thunderstorms over inland areas may be visible from the
water...any convection will remain away from the lakes.

On Sunday...a slightly stronger sfc pressure gradient will encourage
winds to increase just a bit...but they should remain on the light
side with little wave action. Otherwise...there will be an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.

A cool front will cross the region Sunday night...then in the wake
of the front on Memorial Day...southwest winds will freshen on both
lakes. Conditions are still expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria though.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/WCH
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281046
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
646 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid summer conditions will remain in place through Sunday...as high
pressure anchored off the East Coast will continue to pump near
record warmth and moderately high humidity northwards across our
region. This environment will become increasingly favorable for some
showers and thunderstorms...especially on Sunday. It will then
become more comfortable in the wake of a cold front into the middle
of the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Many consider Memorial Day weekend as the unofficial start of
summer...and it will certainly feel that way today as Mother Nature
will supply us with weather more typical of the Fourth of July.

The sultry conditions will be supported by an expansive area of high
pressure that has been anchored off the East Coast for the past
several days. This feature will combine with general troughiness
over the Plains states to keep a deep southerly flow of very warm
and increasingly humid air flowing north from a wide open Gulf of
Mexico. This persistent pattern has allowed our airmass to modify
each of the past few days...and today it should peak with H85 temps
climbing to around 18c. Given the general dry conditions of the past
couple weeks and high sun angle...this airmass will easily support
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lake
plains and valleys. The higher temperature should also include more
of the BUF and ART metro areas...as a weaker and slightly more
southerly synoptic flow should keep the cooling affects of the lake
breezes closer the source. In fact...these readings will be very
close to record levels. See the climate section below for details.

As is usually the case with an increasingly uncomfortable mid summer
airmass...the environment will become more conducive for some
showers and thunderstorms. While this risk will be minimized today
by an amplifying mid level ridge (H5 hgts arnd 588dm)...there will
be a couple of lake breeze boundaries that will interact with the
favorable thermodynamic profile. One boundary will set up along Lake
Erie late this morning before slowly pushing east across the
Southern Tier to the western Finger Lakes. A second...and possible
more pronounced boundary...will become established just south of
Lake Ontario. This second feature is not expected to push more than
20 miles south...basically remaining near or north of the NYS
Thruway. The boundaries will serve to focus some low level
convergence into an already unstable airmass...leading to some
midday and afternoon convection.

Like yesterday (Fri)...diurnal heating will encourage SBCAPEs to
climb to between 1500-2000 j/kg. Without any real capping...this
energy will be found within a tall `skinny` profile...and with
little shear to work with...any thunderstorm should remain below
severe criteria. Even so...PWAT values averaging 1.5" with little
flow aloft will favor slow moving downpours for those few areas that
could experience a storm. Have thus added a little enhanced wording
to the package to cover this potential. For most areas though...
today will simply feature a fair amount of sun with plenty of warmth
and humidity.

Tonight...the localized forcing from the lake breeze boundaries will
once again give way to large scale processes as the overlying ridge
will regain full control. As a result...any leftover convection
early in the evening will dissipate...leaving a warm and sultry
night for the region. Temperatures tonight will remain a full 10 deg
f above normal late May levels...as mins will only be in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

Expect one more day of heat and humidity on Sunday with afternoon
high temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s from the Niagara
Frontier to the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. The
Southern Tier will be less warm with highs in the lower 80s, the
temperature restricted by the pervasive cloud cover. There will be
another warm muggy night on tap Sunday night with temperatures only
lowering to the mid 60s in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will push into Western and North-Central New
York Monday Night in the wake of a cool frontal passage, ushering in
a period of quieter weather. This period of tranquil early summer
weather will be driven by upper level ridging that will be amplifying
over the Lower Great Lakes in response to a trough digging across
the Northern Rockies and Upper Missouri Valley. Dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average should
prevail at least through Wednesday Night.

While model guidance differs somewhat in terms of details, the
general trend for the latter portion of next week will be a return
to more unsettled weather as the upper level ridge either flattens
out or shifts off to the east, depending on the model solution.
Either way, this will pave the way for a return to more humid
conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday
will be the transition day between the outgoing ridging and incoming
troughing, so have elected to go with low chance pops for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered off the East Coast will extend far enough
back across the Lower Great Lakes to supply generally fair...VFR
weather across the region today. The exception will come this
afternoon when there will be the risk for a couple slow moving
thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Region.
There could even be a thunderstorm or two along a lake breeze
boundary that will be stationary between KIAG and KROC.

Any convection will dissipate early this evening. This will leave
VFR conditions across the region.

Outlook...
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening ridge centered off the East Coast will extend back
to the northwest and supply the Lower Great Lakes with another fine
day for recreational boating. This will include another day of
light winds and negligible waves. While some towering cumulus clouds
and possible thunderstorms over inland areas may be visible from the
water...any convection will remain away from the lakes.

On Sunday...a slightly stronger sfc pressure gradient will encourage
winds to increase just a bit...but they should remain on the light
side with little wave action. Otherwise...there will be an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms.

A cool front will cross the region Sunday night...then in the wake
of the front on Memorial Day...southwest winds will freshen on both
lakes. Conditions are still expected to remain below small craft
advisory criteria though.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/WCH
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280607
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid-summer like warmth will fuel some widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly away from the lakes each day
through Monday, becoming increasingly likely through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Strong ridging will build in through Saturday, with 500 mb heights
rising to about 588 dam by Saturday evening. The building high
pressure and strong subsidence will allow for 850 mb temperatures to
rise another 2C to around +17C/+18C by Saturday afternoon, and will
keep shower and thunderstorm chances fairly minimal.

High temperatures on Saturday will run a few degrees warmer than
today, with locations from the Genesee Valley across the northern
Finger Lakes reaching the low 90s. 80s will be found across the
higher terrain of the So Tier and the North Country, as well as
northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario (Buffalo and Watertown), where
afternoon lake breezes will dominate. Will have to watch for some
potential daily record temperatures tomorrow, with the current
forecast of 87 in Buffalo and 85 in Watertown projecting a broken
record and a tied record, respectively. More info on the daily
records can be found in the climate section of the discussion below.

With regard to precipitation chances, a dry overnight is store
tonight, followed by a mostly dry day on Saturday. A couple showers
or thunderstorms developing off a pair of lake breeze boundaries may
be the only exception Saturday afternoon. The strong ridging build
in through the day will likely keep the cap in place. Have included
40 POPs to account for the low chance of convection developing off
the lake breeze boundaries.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

The big story continues to be the early season heat and humidity
through the first part of the period.  Temperatures Sunday will
just be a tad lower than Saturday with another warm muggy night
on tap Sunday night with temperatures only lowering to the mid 60s
in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will push into Western and North-Central New
York Monday Night in the wake of a cool frontal passage, ushering in
a period of quieter weather. This period of tranquil early summer
weather will be driven by upper level ridging that will be amplifying
over the Lower Great Lakes in response to a trough digging across
the Northern Rockies and Upper Missouri Valley. Dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average should
prevail at least through Wednesday Night.

While model guidance differs somewhat in terms of details, the
general trend for the latter portion of next week will be a return
to more unsettled weather as the upper level ridge either flattens
out or shifts off to the east, depending on the model solution.
Either way, this will pave the way for a return to more humid
conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday
will be the transition day between the outgoing ridging and incoming
troughing, so have elected to go with low chance pops for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will be in place across the majority of the region
for the rest of the overnight into Saturday evening...as a ridge
will continue to build across the region. The exception to the VFR
conditions will come before 12z as MVFR vsbys will be found across
parts of the Srn Tier and North Country. There is even the chance
for a couple hours of IFR vsbys.

While fair VFr weather will be featured during the upcoming day,
there will be the risk for a couple slow moving thunderstorms across
the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes Region. There could even be a
thunderstorm or two along a lake breeze boundary that will be
stationary between KIAG and KROC.

Outlook...
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending
to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep mainly
fair weather in place through at least the first half of the
Memorial Day weekend. A few storms firing along lake breeze
boundaries tomorrow afternoon may clip the nearshore waters.
Otherwise expect light winds and negligible waves.

While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist
through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/RSH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280014
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
814 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid-summer like warmth will fuel some widely scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly away from the lakes each day
through Monday, becoming increasingly likely through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong ridging will build in tonight and Saturday, with 500 mb
heights rising from about 584 dam this evening to about 588 dam by
Saturday evening. The building high pressure and strong subsidence
will allow for 850 mb temperatures to rise another 2C to around
+17C/+18C by Saturday afternoon, and will keep shower and
thunderstorm chances fairly minimal tonight and tomorrow.

High temperatures on Saturday will run a few degrees warmer than
today, with locations from the Genesee Valley across the northern
Finger Lakes reaching the low 90s. 80s will be found across the
higher terrain of the So Tier and the North Country, as well as
northeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario (Buffalo and Watertown), where
afternoon lake breezes will dominate. Will have to watch for some
potential daily record temperatures tomorrow, with the current
forecast of 87 in Buffalo and 85 in Watertown projecting a broken
record and a tied record, respectively. More info on the daily
records can be found in the climate section of the discussion below.

With regard to precipitation chances, a dry night is store tonight,
followed by a mostly dry day on Saturday. A lone shower or
thunderstorm developing off a lake breeze boundary may be the only
exception Saturday, however this looks like a rather low chance. The
strong ridging build in through the day will likely keep the cap in
place. Have included a 30 PoP to account for this low chance of a
shower or storm developing off the lake breeze boundary. Otherwise,
the Niagara Frontier, including Buffalo, as well as the North
Country will most certainly remain dry with the stabilizing lake
breezes in place by the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region through Sunday. The ridge will finally loosen its grip
on Monday and a trough over the upper Great Lakes shifts east.

The big story continues to be the early season heat and humidity
through the first part of the period.  Temperatures Sunday will
just be a tad lower than Saturday with another warm muggy night
on tap Sunday night with temperatures only lowering to the mid 60s
in most spots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms again develop on Sunday during
the afternoon and early evening hours. These will once again focus
on and inland of the lake breezes and leftover boundaries of
previous convection.

A shortwave will approach the region from the Upper Lakes Sunday
night with more numerous showers and thunderstorms. Activity will
end from west to east on Monday... most likely late morning across
western New York and during the afternoon over the Finger Lakes and
Eastern Lake Ontario region.  The passage of the cool front will
bring a bit of relief temperature-wise with highs on Monday within
a few degrees of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cooler and drier air will push into Western and North-Central New
York Monday Night in the wake of a cool frontal passage, ushering in
a period of quieter weather. This period of tranquil early summer
weather will be driven by upper level ridging that will be amplifying
over the Lower Great Lakes in response to a trough digging across
the Northern Rockies and Upper Missouri Valley. Dry conditions with
seasonably warm temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average should
prevail at least through Wednesday Night.

While model guidance differs somewhat in terms of details, the
general trend for the latter portion of next week will be a return
to more unsettled weather as the upper level ridge either flattens
out or shifts off to the east, depending on the model solution.
Either way, this will pave the way for a return to more humid
conditions with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday
will be the transition day between the outgoing ridging and incoming
troughing, so have elected to go with low chance pops for the time
being.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist tonight and on Saturday as a strong
ridge of high pressure builds across the region. A stray afternoon
shower or thunderstorm may develop off the lake breeze, however
chances remain low with the building high pressure. KJHW/KROC would
be most likely to see a shower should one develop, but the
probability remains too low to include VCSH in the TAF at this time.

Outlook...
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending
to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep mainly
fair weather in place through at least the first half of the
Memorial Day weekend. A few storms firing along lake breeze
boundaries tomorrow afternoon may clip the nearshore waters.
Otherwise expect light winds and negligible waves.

While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist
through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH/SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 271510
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1110 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid summer warmth will fuel some widely separated
showers and thunderstorms away from the lakes today...then this
activity will gradually increase each day through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Temperature and humidity levels continue to rise this morning as we
are on our way to another summer day across our region today. This
is due to warm advection thanks to strong ridging centered off the
Southeast Coast. 850mb temps of 17C per 12z BUF RAOB will encourage
afternoon temperatures to climb into the mid 80s F.  While local
lake breezes will hold temps in the 70s within a mile of so of the
lakes (including downtown Buffalo)...the other end of the spectrum
will include max temps within a degree or two of 90 in the normally
warmer Genesee Valley and some of the Srn Tier valleys. The
potential for midday and afternoon convection will play a big role
in whether these latter areas can reach close to 90.

Speaking of convection...there will once again be the risk for
widely separated showers and thunderstorms during the midday and
afternoon. While an unstable atmosphere is already in place with
daybreak MLCAPEs in the vcnty of 100-200 j/kg...plenty of diurnal
heating will send these values rocketing to 1500-2000 j/kg by early
afternoon. Working against widespread convection will be a
burgeoning H5 ridge over the region. This will leave mesoscale
processes in charge of triggering any storms...so like yesterday...
yesterday (Thurs)...any convection will be found well inland from
the lakes. The trigger for any thunderstorm activity will once again
come from a lake breeze boundary off Lake Erie...that will gradually
push east/northeast from the Chautauqua ridge during the midday and
afternoon. Given the light flow up through 20k ft and a `skinny`
CAPE profile...any convection should remain below severe limits with
only a small chance for isolated pea sized hail and wind gusts to 35
kts. Given PWAT values that will approach 1.5"...there will be a
greater chance for slow moving downpours that could produce a half
inch soaking for a given area. The remainder of the region will
experience partly to mostly sunny skies.

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms over the Finger Lakes or
Southern Tier early this evening will quickly subside with the
setting sun...as a stabilizing environment and greatly weakened lake
breeze boundary will allow for fair weather to prevail. Otherwise a
fair warm night will be found over Western and North Central New
York with the mercury only settling into the low to mid 60s. These
values will be more typical of those found in July or early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region during the weekend.  This will bring mid-summers warmth
and a persistent but small chance for showers and thunderstorms to
our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to the lower 90s inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 1500 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze, boundaries
from adjacent or previous convection, or across higher terrain.
Model precipitation amounts may be misleading due to smoothing of
lower resolution guidance, when in reality there will be locally
heavy but widely dispersed downpours. As a result will carry mid-
range chance to lower end likely POPS during the afternoon and
evening hours Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistent ridging off the Southeast Coast will provide Western and
North Central New York with mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period. An area of MVFR cigs that were over KJHW earlier this
morning have drifted north to KBUF where an hour or so of MVFR will
occur until the low clouds mix out.

While VFR conditions will be in place across the region...there will
be the risk for convection across the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes
Region after 16z. This is not expected to impact commercial TAF
sites though for Western and North Central New York.

For tonight...any early evening convection will quickly dissipate.
This will leave VFR conditions across all of the region.

Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A burgeoning ridge centered off the Southeast Coast...but extending
to the northwest across the Lower Great Lakes...will keep fair
weather in place through at least the first half of the Memorial Day
weekend. This will be accompanied by light winds and negligible waves.

While fine conditions for recreational boating will likely persist
through Sunday...there will be an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday as a frontal system will move
across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Today......May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 270623
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
223 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored off the Southeast Coast will combine with
persistent low pressure over the center of the country to keep a
feed of warm humid air in place through the bulk of the long holiday
weekend. The mid summer warmth will fuel some widely separated
showers and thunderstorms away from the lakes today...then this
activity will gradually increase each day through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Western and North-Central New York will stew in a very warm and
muggy airmass more reminiscent of late-July than late-May as
dewpoints will linger in the lower 60s throughout the night. Given
the high dewpoints and light winds, patchy fog cannot be ruled out
across lower lying areas...particularly those that saw heavier
rainfall earlier today. Look for lows to only fall into the low to
mid 60s, with a few spots in the Buffalo metro and near Lake Erie
only falling into the upper 60s.

Later this Friday, a burgeoning upper level ridge bulging into the
Lower Great Lakes will make for an even warmer day than today as
850mb temps push towards +17C, yielding widespread highs in the mid
80s, with a few spots in the typically warmer Genesee Valley
possibly breaching the 90 degree mark. This ridging should have a
detrimental effect on the development of any organized convection...
however given the moist and unstable airmass in place with SBCAPES
progged to climb as high as 1500 j/kg in the afternoon inland from
the lakes, expect that we should at least see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with lake breeze
boundaries providing the impetus for convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region Friday Night through Sunday.  This will bring mid-
summers warmth and a persistent but small chance for showers and
thunderstorms to our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to around 90 inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 2000 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze or boundaries
or across higher terrain. Model QPFs may be misleading due to
smoothing of lower resolution guidance when in reality there will
heavy but localized downpours. As a result will carry mostly low to
mid-range chance POPS during the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistent ridging off the Southeast Coast will provide Western and
North Central New York with mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period...although there will be two areas that will likely
experience IFR conditions between 09 and 12z this morning.

The first of these areas will be across the Southern Tier where dew
points close to 60 and a light southerly flow could produce some
patchy IFR cigs/vsbys at sites such as KJHW and KELZ. The second
area will be across the North Country where MVFR vsbys were already
in place as of the 06z TAF issuance. VSBYS at sites such as KART are
expected to lower to IFR levels after 09z. IFR conditions are
already in place across parts of Southern Ontario...upstream from
KART.

As we work through the upcoming day...while VFR conditions will be
in place across the region...there will be the risk for convection
across the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes Region after 16z. This is not
expected to impact commercial TAF sites though for Western and North
Central New York.

For Friday night...any early evening convection will quickly
dissipate. This will leave VFR conditions across all of the region.

Outlook...
Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge will settle over the east coast through the holiday weekend.
An increase in heat and humidity will allow some scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. Winds
and waves outside of any storms will remain fairly negligible
through the next few days. The tranquil pattern will continue
through the end of the week, although thunderstorms may produce
locally higher winds and waves at times each day through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 270028
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
828 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic
for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with
the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading
up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms that pushed through a good portion of the
forecast area this afternoon have largely moved east out of the
forecast area and/or dissipated this evening. This will leave
Western and North-Central New York to stew in a very warm and muggy
airmass more reminiscent of late-July than late-May tonight as
dewpoints will linger in the lower 60s throughout the night. Given
the high dewpoints and light winds, patchy fog cannot be ruled out
across lower lying areas...particularly those that saw heavier
rainfall earlier today. Look for lows to only fall into the low to
mid 60s, with a few spots in the Buffalo metro and near Lake Erie
only falling into the upper 60s.

Finally, there will be a slight chance for a round of showers late
tonight/early Friday morning across the Southern Tier, tied to
another upper level shortwave currently depicted over NW Ohio. This
disturbance is progged to weaken by the time it reaches the Southern
Tier...nonetheless given the soupy airmass in place, an isolated
shower or two cannot be ruled out.

Moving farther into Friday, upper level ridging building into the
Lower Great Lakes will make for an even warmer day than today as
850mb temps push towards +17C, yielding widespread highs in the mid
80s, with a few spots in the typically warmer Genesee Valley
possibly breaching the 90 degree mark. This ridging should have a
detrimental effect on the development of any organized
convection...however, given the moist and unstable airmass in place
with SBCAPES progged to climb as high as 1500 j/kg in the afternoon
inland from the lakes, expect that we should at least see isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with lake
breeze boundaries providing the impetus for convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will extend from Bermuda to the Lower Great
Lakes Region Friday Night through Sunday.  This will bring mid-
summers warmth and a persistent but small chance for showers and
thunderstorms to our region during the holiday weekend.

The big story for the weekend will be the early season heat, which
will approach record levels on Saturday. Highs will range from the
mid 80s to around 90 inland of the lake breeze on Saturday, with
Sunday just a few degrees cooler. Dew points will be in the mid to
upper 60s which will result in muggy conditions and limit cooling
overnight.

The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the
afternoon and early evening hours when daytime heating helps
destabilize the atmosphere. The combination of boundary layer
moisture and heating will result in fairly impressive instability
with NAM/GFS BUFKIT showing afternoon CAPES climbing over 2000 J/Kg
inland of the lake breeze. Despite this instability, upper level
ridging will limit large scale lift. Lacking a focus, expect
diurnally driven thunderstorms to be fairly sparse in areal
coverage, mainly focusing on and inland of lake breeze or boundaries
or across higher terrain. Model QPFs may be misleading due to
smoothing of lower resolution guidance when in reality there will
heavy but localized downpours. As a result will carry mostly low to
mid-range chance POPS during the afternoon and evening hours
Saturday and Sunday.

Even without any large scale lift at night, weak impulses may cross
the top of the ridge. Therefore it is difficult to completely rule
any showers during the nighttime and morning hours, but the chances
are very small with very limited areal coverage. A shortwave will
approach the region from the Upper Lakes as the ridge starts to
break down Sunday night. This will result in an increasing chance
for showers late Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summers warmth and humidity will have one last day of gripping the
Eastern Great Lakes region before a weak cool front crosses the
region. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day
Monday...with activity ending late morning across WNY and then the
afternoon hours over the Finger Lakes and Eastern Lake Ontario
region as this weak cool front crosses. Highs Monday will reach into
the lower 80s for many areas.

Air temperatures will be a few degrees cooler Tues-Wednesday and
more noticeable will be the drop in humidity as dewpoints will fall
from the mid 60s Monday down to the mid 50s for Tues-Wednesday. High
pressure extending southward from Canada will provide for sunny
skies both days.

Thursday a storm will advance across the western Great Lakes
region...and towards James Bay...while pushing a cold front and
associated showers and thunderstorms eastward across the Great
Lakes. This activity may reach the eastern Great Lakes area before
the end of the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front southerly
winds will bring a return to warm and more humid air for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z, convection has largely moved out of the forecast area,
setting the stage for a generally quiet night with VFR conditions at
most locations. However, there will be a risk for patchy fog across
portions of the forecast area given high surface dewpoints in the
60s and light winds, primarily across the areas that saw heavier
rain today. A secondary weak disturbance may bring a few more
showers to the Southern Tier around 09-12Z Friday, however
confidence in this feature and resultant convective potential
remains low.

Moving into Friday, the warm, moist, and unstable airmass in place
will support the development of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Any convection should be largely
tied to the lake breeze and be confined to high terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes in the afternoon, with little threat
expected across TAF sites.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will settle over the east coast through the
holiday weekend. An increase in heat and humidity will allow some
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening. Winds and waves outside of any storms will remain
fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil pattern
will continue through the end of the week, although thunderstorms
may produce locally higher winds and waves at times each day through
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 261451
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will set up over the western Atlantic
for the next several days bringing summertime warmth. Along with
the warm temperatures, an increase in humidity will also bring
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms each day leading
up to and into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few light showers are pushing across Western New York late this
morning ahead of weak warm front. The most concentrated area is
approaching Monroe county near 11am. Temperature and humidity levels
today continue to edge up higher as the front lifts across the
region. Dewpoints have already reached the lower 60s here in Buffalo
and should climb to this level elsewhere by this afternoon. High
temperatures should again reach into the upper 70s and 80s.

A shortwave trough and ribbon of vorticity currently indicated on WV
imagery pushing east of Michigan is forecast to arrive over Western
New York this afternoon where it will be the focus for triggering
showers and thunderstorms. CAPE values per 12z NAM should rise to
between 500 and 1000 j/kg, with greatest instability expected just
east of Buffalo. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
developing this afternoon should work its way eastward across the
forecast area through the early evening hours. Another area of
convection will be possible across the higher terrain east of Lake
Ontario during the afternoon hours as well, though confidence is a
little lower here owing to lower instability and possible lake
shadowing. 0-6km bulk wind shear across the forecast area is
expected to reach only 20-25 kts, so activity is expected to remain
below severe levels, however with PWATS forecast to climb above 1.5
inches, some storms could produce heavy rain.

Tonight, the mid level wave will push into New England. This
combined with diminishing diurnal instability will result in
diminishing showers from west to east. Overnight it will be
mainly dry, although a few spotty showers or thunderstorms still
cannot be ruled out in the weak warm advection regime, especially
if any convectively generated vorticity maxima from upstream drift
into the region. The combination of boundary layer moisture and
light winds will result in patchy fog in any areas with ample
clearing. Lows will be in the mid 60s across the Lake Plains, and
lower 60s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
There will be a very summer-like pattern on Friday and Saturday,
with an upper level ridge axis extending from the Mid-Atlantic to
the lower Great Lakes. There will be little or no large scale ascent
due to this ridging, but moderate instability will support some
showers and thunderstorms along and inland of the lake breeze
boundaries, with mid to upper chance range PoPs each afternoon and
evening.

Areal coverage should be quite sparse, with only low chances for any
precipitation at any one given location. 850mb temps rise to around
+17C to +18C, which will support highs in the mid 80s in most areas
with upper 80s to even 90 possible from the Genesee Valley to
central NY. It will be cooler along the immediate lakeshores,
especially during the afternoon hours when the lake breeze becomes
better established.

Any showers and thunderstorms will slowly diminish in coverage
during the nighttime. Again a few spotty showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out if any convectively generated vorticity maxima
from upstream drift into the region. Overnight temperatures will be
warm with lows in the upper 60s across the Lake Plains and the mid
60s across interior sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Summers warmth will begin this period...with a slight break midweek
as both air and dewpoint temperatures will turn down a few degrees.

On Sunday the ridge of high pressure that gripped the start of the
holiday weekend will begin to weaken as a shortwave trough of low
pressure rounds the ridge over the western Great Lakes region. While
there will be chances for afternoon convection over the region
Sunday...this shortwave will likely bring the highest chances for
showers late Sunday night and Monday across the region as it
crosses.

This shortwave looks to also shunt Atlantic moisture to our
east...this moisture flowing northward from tropical activity off
the Southeast states. This will allow for lowering of the humidity
if the plume of moisture remains to our east as well as a dry
period for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

High Sunday will range through the 80s...while Monday through
Wednesday will feature highs from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level disturbance and surface warm front will cross the
region today. This will trigger scattered to numerous shower and
thunderstorm activity around/after 18Z. Greatest confidence in
convection is found in the Southern Tier, where instability will be
maximized, while confidence is lower at KBUF/KIAG where SW lake
breeze flow may keep convection limited to the east of the fields.
Likewise, lake shadowing should keep convection east of KART. Shower
and thunderstorm activity will diminish tonight with as the
disturbance will be well east of the forecast area along with the
lost of daytime heating.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will remain across the lakes today.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Winds and waves outside of any storms will
remain fairly negligible through the next few days. The tranquil
pattern will continue through the end of the week, although
thunderstorms may produce locally higher winds and waves at times
each day through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The first extended period of summer`s warmth will be upon us this
weekend. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s, of which some
of these daily readings may near record levels. Listed below are
the records for our three climate stations.

BUFFALO...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...89F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...86F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1911

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...1987
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1987


ROCHESTER...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...92F...1978
......................Record High Minimum...70F...1918

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...93F...1911
......................Record High Minimum...68F...1939

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...92F...2006
......................Record High Minimum...69F...1908


WATERTOWN...

Friday.....May 27th...Record High Maximum...87F...1960
......................Record High Minimum...67F...1991

Saturday...May 28th...Record High Maximum...85F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...64F...1987

Sunday.....May 29th...Record High Maximum...87F...2012
......................Record High Minimum...63F...2006


A climatic day is between 1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871,
while records for Watertown start in 1949.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





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