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000
FXUS61 KBUF 210342
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1142 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHING NEW YORK STATE. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEAST TO TORONTO WHICH ARE
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN. RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THESE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 09Z. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW YORK 18Z TO 22Z.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE JUST INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
ROCHESTER. 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR WILL APPROACH 80KTS SO A FEW
LOW-TOPPED GUSTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EVEN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING. QPF AVERAGES BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS.

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TOWARD MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THE SHOWERS BRING LOWER CIGS. SOME IFR MAY BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LOW OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TAFS.
A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO DISCOUNT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NOT TAPERING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (17KTS) FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ABOVE 4 FEET SO AN ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THERE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210342
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1142 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLOWLY APPROACHING NEW YORK STATE. AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL OHIO NORTHEAST TO TORONTO WHICH ARE
LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER STORMS ACROSS MICHIGAN. RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THESE SHOWERS TO OUR WEST UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 09Z. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW YORK 18Z TO 22Z.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SO HAVE JUST INSERTED SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF
ROCHESTER. 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR WILL APPROACH 80KTS SO A FEW
LOW-TOPPED GUSTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EVEN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF
DEEP CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING. QPF AVERAGES BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS.

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TOWARD MVFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT ONCE THE SHOWERS BRING LOWER CIGS. SOME IFR MAY BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION APPEAR TOO LOW OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TAFS.
A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO DISCOUNT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NOT TAPERING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (17KTS) FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ABOVE 4 FEET SO AN ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THERE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MILD AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE...REACHING CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SUNDAY MORNING. A BROKEN BAND
OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM HAMILTON ONTARIO ALONG THE
NORTH EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ONLY A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR GETS ADVECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE GIVEN ANY
BETTER AFTERNOON HEATING THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TOWARD
CENTRAL NEW YORK BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS.

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TOWARD MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ONCE THE SHOWERS BRING LOWER CIGS. SOME IFR MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR
TOO LOW OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TAFS. A 35-40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO DISCOUNT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NOT TAPERING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (17KTS) FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ABOVE 4 FEET SO AN ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THERE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210029
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
829 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MILD AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE...REACHING CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SUNDAY MORNING. A BROKEN BAND
OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM HAMILTON ONTARIO ALONG THE
NORTH EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ONLY A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING
SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR GETS ADVECTED ALONG
AND NORTH OF SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO
BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE GIVEN ANY
BETTER AFTERNOON HEATING THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TOWARD
CENTRAL NEW YORK BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT STORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS.

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TOWARD MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT
ONCE THE SHOWERS BRING LOWER CIGS. SOME IFR MAY BE FOUND ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR
TOO LOW OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE ANY TSRA IN THE TAFS. A 35-40 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO DISCOUNT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST. LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NOT TAPERING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS TAPER OFF WITH VFR/MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA (17KTS) FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ABOVE 4 FEET SO AN ADVISORY REMAINS
IN PLACE THERE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MILD AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...REACHING CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SUNDAY MORNING. BAND OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION RESIDING WITH THE UPSTREAM THETA-E AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO LARGELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ONLY A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR GETS ADVECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS TO BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS.

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MILD AIR
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDED A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...REACHING CENTRAL QUEBEC BY SUNDAY MORNING. BAND OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION RESIDING WITH THE UPSTREAM THETA-E AXIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO LARGELY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ONLY A SMALL
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO REACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE TONIGHT AND
DURING SUNDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR GETS ADVECTED
ALONG AND NORTH OF SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEL CONSENSUS
IS TO BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE 18Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME.
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST WITH ONLY A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH MOST OF
THE CWA...WITH A SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENDING
QUICKLY IN THE EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL RAISE POPS
UP TO LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ERIE WHERE A NORTHWEST FLOW OF OROGRAPHIC
LIFT...WILL A STILL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE SHOWERS LIKELY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE NIGHT SOME LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO...IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SHOWERS.

MONDAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF EARLY AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THOUGH JUST ABOUT ANY LOCATION
WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 850
HPA TEMPERATURES AROUND -1C TO +3C WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY MID TO UPPER
50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL IN THE VICINITY CLOUDS WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS LIKELY THICKEST AND
STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SHOWER TOWARDS THE EAST WHICH IS
CLOSER TO THE TROUGH ALOFT. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WARMER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD...AND WITH CLOUDS DIMINISHING AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE MID 60S. TUESDAY WILL BE THE START OF WHAT MAY
BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...COMFORTABLE FALLISH WEATHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT FAIR...COMFORTABLE AND PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
US THIS TIME PERIOD WITH A DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US. ONLY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...DAMPENING THE RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN US MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS
AND WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 201723
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
123 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS
WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201723
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
123 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES WILL THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW
MOVING FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS
WILL NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE QUITE
BREEZY...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201436
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201436
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201353
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201353
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
953 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. IT WILL BE QUITE BREEZY...WITH
SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN
EXITING HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGELY WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK
NEARSHORE WATERS... AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 201152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
752 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MVFR STRATO-CU OVER THE SRN TIER
THROUGH 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
BREEZY THOUGH...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGELY WIND BASED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS...
AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
752 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MVFR STRATO-CU OVER THE SRN TIER
THROUGH 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. IT WILL BECOME QUITE
BREEZY THOUGH...WITH SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT MOST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGELY WIND BASED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS...
AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
422 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK FOR THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE EXCEPTION TO
THE VFR WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARDS AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH NORTH NORTHEAST
DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45KT LOW
LEVEL JET THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SFC WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS WHILE WINDS AT 2K FT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 40-45 KTS.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MIX
OUT BY MIDDAY AND LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGELY WIND BASED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS...
AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 200822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
422 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL CIRCULATE LATE SUMMER WARMTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
THEN SLOWLY CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FOR MONDAY WHEN READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IT WILL BE BREEZY AND WARM ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AS MOTHER
NATURE WILL TURN THE CLOCK BACK A MONTH...PRODUCING CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. THIS IMPROVEMENT TO NICER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A COLD FRONT WILL USHER MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK (SEE BELOW).

A WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF NEW
ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. H85 TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 14C...AND GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLENTY
OF MECHANICAL MIXING...NEAR SFC TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO
BETWEEN 75 AND 80F. THE WARMEST AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS
WEST OF WAYNE COUNTY WHERE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
WILL ADD A FEW DEGREES TO THE THERMOMETER.

TONIGHT...A PAIR OF STRONG STRONG WAVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL PUSH A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WILL BE LARGELY RAIN FREE...A SHORTWAVE
FOUND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE SOME ADDED UPPER
LEVEL LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100KT H25 JET
OVER QUEBEC...SO SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP BY THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MERCURY READINGS
FOR MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SETTLE INTO THE MID 60S...WHICH WILL BE
SOME 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL MID SEPTEMBER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES...WITH ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTING FROM WESTERN QUEBEC AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES HAVE ALL
TRENDED TOWARD A MORE DISTINCT SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES NEW YORK STATE. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE
SECONDARY WAVE WITH THE NAM REMAINING A DISTINCT SLOW AND OVERLY
AMPLIFIED OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...THIS INCREASED
"BAGGINESS" ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE A GENERAL TENDENCY TO SLOW
IT DOWN. USING A CONSENSUS OF THE LATTER CAMP OF MODELS AS A
GUIDE...THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT SHOULD START OUT THE DAY OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND ONLY GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THIS FEATURE EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTH COUNTRY ZONES
BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

THE END RESULT OF ALL THIS WILL BE A MORE PROLONGED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS...OF WHICH THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE MULTIPLE SEPARATE
ROUNDS...AS OPPOSED TO ONE MAIN BAND ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT.
IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE REFLECTED ALL THIS WITH A MORE PROLONGED
PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS...AS WELL AS THE INSERTION OF THE
"OCCASIONAL" QUALIFIER TO HIGHLIGHT THE FACT THAT THE SHOWERS MAY
WELL BE MORE ON AND OFF IN NATURE.

OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME...
WITH SHOWER POTENTIAL STILL LOOKING TO BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN BOTH
FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO REMAINING A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. WHILE PLENTY OF SHEAR WILL ALSO BE
IN PLACE...AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
LIMITED BY THE GENERALLY WEAK LEVELS OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DIMINISH SOME LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING...THOUGH
THESE WILL CERTAINLY NOT END ALTOGETHER WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS NOT DUE TO CROSS OUR REGION UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF WHAT
SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH THESE THEN TAPERING OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING ITS DEPARTURE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND AS SPRAWLING SURFACE BASED RIDGING/ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR
RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

AFTER THAT...GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LIFTS OUT INTO LABRADOR...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
STILL EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN SPITE OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN RESULT IN A BRIEF RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING MORNING
LOW CLOUDS ALSO LIKELY HELPING TO KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ON MONDAY. THESE COOL READINGS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SUNSHINE AND
WARMING ALOFT LIKELY ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY PERIOD AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS OUR REGION AT ALL LEVELS...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...ALONG WITH SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
WARMING TEMPS AS OUR AIRMASS GRADUALLY WARMS ALOFT. IN TERMS OF
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY NEXT
FRIDAY...MAKING FOR VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK FOR THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE EXCEPTION TO
THE VFR WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARDS AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH NORTH NORTHEAST
DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45KT LOW
LEVEL JET THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SFC WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS WHILE WINDS AT 2K FT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 40-45 KTS.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MIX
OUT BY MIDDAY AND LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

FOR THE UPCOMING NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE REGION WILL BE FOUND BETWEEN EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN LARGELY WIND BASED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS...
AS THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.
WHILE A WEAKER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ENCOURAGE LOWER WINDS AND
WAVES AT THAT TIME...IT WILL BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

AS WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A
PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE. THE
INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID 40S
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LATER THIS SATURDAY...THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30
KNOTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE VFR WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE A PLUME OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARDS AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH NORTH NORTHEAST
DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45KT LOW
LEVEL JET THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SFC WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS WHILE WINDS AT 2K FT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 40-45KTS.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MIX
OUT BY MIDDAY AND LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 200610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A
PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SRN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE. THE
INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER
THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID 40S
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LATER THIS SATURDAY...THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30
KNOTS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK FOR THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE VFR WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE A PLUME OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARDS AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FT. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH NORTH NORTHEAST
DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE MIXING OUT.

THE OTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF A 40-45KT LOW
LEVEL JET THAT WILL PRODUCE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE AN ISSUE FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE SFC WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY AND GENERALLY UNDER 20KTS WHILE WINDS AT 2K FT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST AT 40-45KTS.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MIX
OUT BY MIDDAY AND LEAVE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR
THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW SURFACE WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THE LOWERING CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON
SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200251
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A
PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. ON THE
LAKE PLAINS INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE.
THE INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID
40S ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL. INCREASING SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

A 40-45 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200251
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO SHOW
SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A
PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. ON THE
LAKE PLAINS INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE.
THE INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID
40S ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONTINUES LATE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL. INCREASING SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

A 40-45 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 192357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A
PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. ON THE
LAKE PLAINS INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE.
THE INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID
40S ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL. INCREASING SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

A 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED THE 00Z TAFS TO INCLUDE LLWS.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY
DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 192357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
757 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME
HIGH/THIN CIRRUS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A
PLUME OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. ON THE
LAKE PLAINS INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-45 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE.
THE INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID
40S ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. LATER TONIGHT A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER PENNSYLVANIA
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL. INCREASING SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES.

A 45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN 10-15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL CREATE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED THE 00Z TAFS TO INCLUDE LLWS.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY
DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 191918
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
318 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY UNDER PARTIAL
SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUDS CREEPING NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL PA MAY
DRIFT INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NY STATE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES LATE TONIGHT...AND
EVENTUALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS WELL. ON THE
LAKE PLAINS INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM DEVELOPING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS INCREASING
AHEAD OF A SYSTEM IN THE UPPER LAKES.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN QUEBEC...AND A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
LATER TONIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE HILLS AND LAKE ERIE SHORE.
THE INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 50S WELL INLAND...WITH SOME MID
40S ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THESE LOWS SHOULD OCCUR EARLY...WITH
SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GUSTY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND 25-30 KNOTS
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WITH SOME ADDED ACCELERATION FROM
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE LOW STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND FOR THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD BREAK BY
MIDDAY AS STRONG MIXING DILUTES THE RELATIVELY SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

850MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +13C WEST AND +11C EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM STOUT SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MORNING CLOUDS MAY
INITIALLY HINDER WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY START DRY ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF A
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES COLD FRONT A RIBBON OF MOISTURE WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK LATER OVERNIGHT. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ UPWARDS TO 40 KNOTS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
BETWEEN 100 AND 500 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WNY WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL 110 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS SUNDAY AS LIFT AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. A SURFACE WAVE FORMING AND
DEEPENING ALONG THIS SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS...AND THUS WE WILL RAISE POPS TO
CATEGORICAL FOR SUNDAY. THOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY...ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
ALOFT AND AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE WAVE MAY FORM LINE SEGMENTS OF
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS DOWN
TO THE SURFACE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FAR WNY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OUR
EASTERN ZONES BY EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE MAIN SLUG OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT THE LAGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD POOL OVERHEAD
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THESE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WITH
TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO CELSIUS. THIS...ALONG
WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY TOWARDS THE EAST WILL
END BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN STRATUS AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. IF
THERE IS AMPLE CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY WILL AGAIN BE PRONE TO FROST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALOFT TO START THIS TIME PERIOD THERE WILL BE TWO LONG WAVE
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...ONE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COASTLINE AND A SECOND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST US.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE CRESTING OVER A CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH...BOTH ALOFT AND ALSO REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
LIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT WARMER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ALONG WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE.

AS THE WESTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN US...BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SAVE FOR THE
DAMPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
DRY...BUILDING WARMTH AND ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND
ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MAY ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO
INTERRUPT THE FAIR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S TUESDAY UP TO THE
LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL.
INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
MAKING IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY TRUE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO WESTERN
QUEBEC WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SSW WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO AT THE NORTHEAST
END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER SSW WINDS MAY
DEVELOP AT THE NORTHEAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

A PERIOD OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS
MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 191751
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FULL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL.
INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
MAKING IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY TRUE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN
WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WAVES IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE MID-LAKE POINT INTO CANADIAN WATERS.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 191751
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FULL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING A PLUME OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS
MAY PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. SOME OF THIS MAY IMPACT KJHW AS WELL.
INCREASING SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM
MAKING IT TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH VFR PREVAILING AT THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES.

A LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY TRUE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL
INCREASE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MIX OUT
BY MIDDAY...AND LEAVE VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A MIX OF SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5K FEET AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS. IT WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY WITH SSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND 25-30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE FROM KBUF-KIAG.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT FOR LOCAL IFR IN SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG IN
THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN
WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WAVES IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE MID-LAKE POINT INTO CANADIAN WATERS.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 191437
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING ON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND NOON
AS DAYTIME MIXING HELPS TO MIX AND DILUTE THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELD. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. LOW STATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE IFR ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE RISK
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN
WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WAVES IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FROM THE MID-LAKE POINT INTO CANADIAN WATERS.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 191141
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER (THRU ABOUT 14Z)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL PRODUCE VFR
FLYING WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE RISK
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK
ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 191120
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER (THRU ABOUT 14Z)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL PRODUCE VFR
FLYING WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE RISK
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK
ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 191120
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
MORNING...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SRN
TIER (THRU ABOUT 14Z)...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL PRODUCE VFR
FLYING WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE RISK
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK
ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 190812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER...AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM KIAG AND KROC. FOR THE
LATTER...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REDUCE CIGS TO BETWEEN 800 AND
2500 FT AT TIMES...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KELZ AND KJHW.

AS WE PUSH PAST SUNRISE...TODAY WILL BE A PROBLEM FREE DAY FOR
AVIATORS AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ANY CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE RISK
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LATER TODAY...THE SFC WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WINDS
AND WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 190812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL NOT ONLY PROVIDE US WITH FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...BUT THE CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL PUMP NOTABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL
BE MORE TYPICAL OF THE SECOND HALF OF AUGUST. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
THEN LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS SUPPORTING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL PUSH A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE
FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH A DEEPENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WARMER FLOW WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED BY A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL HELP TO HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S (UP 40S LEWIS CO) DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL AVERAGE SOME 15 DEG F HIGHER
THAN THOSE FROM EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. AT THIS POINT...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE UPSTREAM LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DRY DAY...SAVE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.
IN TERMS OF CLOUD COVER...A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CIRCULATING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL BRING
SOME CLOUDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH OUR REGION SITUATED WITHIN THE DEEPENING WARM SECTOR OF THE
SLOWLY ENCROACHING LOW.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION WILL HELP TO PUMP 850 MB READINGS UP TO
THE +10C TO +13C RANGE BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT GOOD MIXING...
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO SUMMERTIME
LEVELS. EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN MANY
AREAS...EXCEPT ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
READINGS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMEST
READINGS OF ALL WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK...WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMEST...SKIES WILL BE
SUNNIEST...AND GOOD DOWNSLOPING FROM A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL GIVE TEMPS AN ADDED BOOST. IF THINGS WORK OUT RIGHT...
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS IN THIS LATTER REGION
BREACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS THE 30-35 MPH RANGE LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE ITS ATTENDANT COMPLEX SURFACE
REFLECTION SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. IN THE PROCESS...
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL PUSH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING SUNDAY. LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL APPEAR PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WHEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT THIS POINT...WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WITH A SWATH OF HIGH LIKELY POPS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH DRY SLOTTING BEHIND THE FRONT
THEN LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE WEST-EAST REDUCTION IN SHOWER CHANCES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE-WISE...VERY MILD CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR REGION REMAINING FIRMLY WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR AND CONSEQUENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN READINGS DROPPING NO
LOWER THAN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. INCREASED CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN HELP TO HOLD
READINGS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SWATH OF WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION FORCES
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TO CLOSE OUT
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH THE RESULTANT COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST WEATHER WILL BE ON MONDAY...WHEN 850 MB TEMPS WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF ZERO CELSIUS WILL ONLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
DRY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY MOISTURE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5
KFT OR SO OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL SERVE TO GREATLY LIMIT
SHOWER CHANCES...WITH THE BULK OF THESE MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE
PASSAGE OF A TRAILING SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND A SECONDARY SURFACE
TROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WITH THE LATTER PRIMARILY
AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL JUST KEEP
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLAY AS APPROPRIATE...WITH ANY LAKE RESPONSE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERELY LIMITED BY BOTH THE DRY NATURE OF THE
AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS.
PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND A NICE RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING TO AROUND 70 DEGREES OR SO BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER...AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM KIAG AND KROC. FOR THE
LATTER...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REDUCE CIGS TO BETWEEN 800 AND
2500 FT AT TIMES...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KELZ AND KJHW.

AS WE PUSH PAST SUNRISE...TODAY WILL BE A PROBLEM FREE DAY FOR
AVIATORS AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ANY CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE RISK
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LATER TODAY...THE SFC WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WINDS
AND WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

SUNDAY WILL BE UNSETTLED ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND 900MB. CLOUDS
WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO
LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST OF VALLEYS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES...AND
WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER...AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM KIAG AND KROC. FOR THE
LATTER...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REDUCE CIGS TO BETWEEN 800 AND
2500 FT AT TIMES...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KELZ AND KJHW.

AS WE PUSH PAST SUNRISE...FRIDAY WILL BE A PROBLEM FREE DAY FOR
AVIATORS AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ANY CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE
RISK FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SFC WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WINDS AND
WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 190610
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND 900MB. CLOUDS
WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO
LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST OF VALLEYS. IN THESE
LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES...AND
WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER...AND
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM KIAG AND KROC. FOR THE
LATTER...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL REDUCE CIGS TO BETWEEN 800 AND
2500 FT AT TIMES...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER. SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH KELZ AND KJHW.

AS WE PUSH PAST SUNRISE...FRIDAY WILL BE A PROBLEM FREE DAY FOR
AVIATORS AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE WILL PROVIDE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ANY CLOUD COVER AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRESENT THE
RISK FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WILL MENTION THIS LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD FOR THE FAR WESTERN SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER CANADIAN WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SOMEWHAT
STRONGER WINDS WILL PRODUCE WAVES THAT WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE SFC WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP AN
EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE FOR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH WINDS AND
WAVES REMAINING WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND VEER TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
AS THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
START TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE HIGHEST
WAVES BEING CONCENTRATED IN CANADIAN WATERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 190303
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT 1100
PM...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND
900MB. CLOUDS WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM
NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR
DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST
OF VALLEYS. IN THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE
LAKE SHORES...AND WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 03Z...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS VFR...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ON LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THAT THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A MODEST FLOW...AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL CAUSE STRATUS TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS JHW...BUT WINDS
ALOFT SHIFTING FROM N TO E WITH AN AREA OF LAKE CLOUDS LIKELY TO
CLIP ROC/BUF/IAG BRIEFLY. EVEN SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
STRATUS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BEFORE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 190303
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL. THEN AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT 1100
PM...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS ALONG A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ON THE LAKE. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT WITH
THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING SHOWING AN INVERSION DEVELOPING AT AROUND
900MB. CLOUDS WILL SHIFT...HOWEVER...AS WINDS ALOFT VEER FROM
NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLOUDS ON LAKE
ONTARIO TO MOVE ONTO LAND OVERNIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE HRRR
DEPICTS. THESE SUBTLETIES MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT
WITH PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS THAT CLEAR AND THE COOLEST
OF VALLEYS. IN THESE LOCATIONS...EXPECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMONPLACE ALONG THE
LAKE SHORES...AND WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
THE COOLEST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 03Z...THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS VFR...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ON LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THAT THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A MODEST FLOW...AND A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL CAUSE STRATUS TO EXPAND
OVERNIGHT. THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS JHW...BUT WINDS
ALOFT SHIFTING FROM N TO E WITH AN AREA OF LAKE CLOUDS LIKELY TO
CLIP ROC/BUF/IAG BRIEFLY. EVEN SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER
STRATUS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP BEFORE FOG BECOMES WIDESPREAD.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 182341
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT
SUNSET THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST
OF I-90...EXTENDING TO THE PA STATE LINE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. 925
MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY ALLOW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ON
LAKE ONTARIO WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUPPORT THE EXISTING
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND NO
CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS
THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY UPPER 30S FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HOWEVER AT 23Z NONE OF THIS WAS IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS AREA TO DRIFT SOUTH AND THEN WEST...WHILE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WITH NIGHTFALL AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS JHW WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS MAY ALSO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO BUF/IAG/ROC...MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS AS SE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSH ENHANCE DRYING. ART SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITHOUT ANY LAKE
MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 182341
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC
OVERNIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING A
CHILLY MORNING...FRIDAY WILL BE COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...WITH
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AT
SUNSET THERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST
OF I-90...EXTENDING TO THE PA STATE LINE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A DEVELOPING INVERSION OVERNIGHT. 925
MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO EAST OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL MOVE
THIS AREA OF CLOUDS...AND LIKELY ALLOW MORE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ON
LAKE ONTARIO WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C. THESE SUBTLETIES
MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY TRICKY.
HOWEVER...LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE UPPER
40S ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA SUPPORT THE EXISTING
FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND NO
CHANGES TO HEADLINES WITH THIS UPDATE.

EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS
THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL
AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. ONLY UPPER 30S FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AREA OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...HOWEVER AT 23Z NONE OF THIS WAS IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS AREA TO DRIFT SOUTH AND THEN WEST...WHILE
GRADUALLY EXPANDING WITH NIGHTFALL AS AN INVERSION DEVELOPS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS JHW WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY SOME FOG. A PERIOD OF NE WINDS MAY ALSO BRING MVFR CIGS
TO BUF/IAG/ROC...MAINLY LATE THIS EVENING OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THESE LOCATIONS AS SE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS PUSH ENHANCE DRYING. ART SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITHOUT ANY LAKE
MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING. MODERATE EASTERLIES
WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THIS AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 182038
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  ONLY UPPER 30S
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 182038
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC TONIGHT...THEN PUSH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY.
THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING CLOUDS
BLANKETING MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO COOL UPSLOPE FLOW COMING
IN OFF LAKE ONTARIO ON A NORTHERLY FLOW. ONLY AREAS SEEING BREAKS OF
SUN ARE ACROSS OUR THREE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY WHERE THERE IS NO LAKE INFLUENCE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/FINGER LAKES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST. DESPITE THIS IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS UNDER THE
INVERSION TO ALLOW SOME CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. FOR THESE REASONS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH OUR
SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE OPTED NOT TO HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
ANY COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD UP
A FEW EXTRA DEGREES DUE TO THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A FEW COLDER
SPOTS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. THAT SAID...THERE
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS...ALONG WITH ANY AREAS THAT SEE MORE CLEARING. NOW FOR THE
NORTHCOUNTRY...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL PROMOTE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UP HERE. TEMPERATURES EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER
20S ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.  ONLY UPPER 30S
FOUND ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH THIS IN MIND...FREEZE WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
PROVIDING A NICE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK...WITH COOLER UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL NOT COMMENCE UNTIL A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE STABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL RETREAT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD REALLY BECOME PRONOUNCED DURING THIS TIME
WITH A POTENTIALLY VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY
COOLING INFLUENCES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH THE FLOW OF INCOMING WARM AIR
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BY THIS MAY BE A
TAD CONSERVATIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SURGING TO NEAR +14C
ESPECIALLY IF MORE SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. SOME OF THE FAVORED
DOWNSLOPE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 80S. THE STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES TO NEAR 40 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER
STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...BEFORE RENEWED SHOWER CHANCES DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A BLANKET OF LOW LEVEL LAKE CLOUDS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO STRETCHING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST
THROUGH THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. MVFR/IFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR CIGS AT KART. THE SOUTHERN TIER (INCLUDING
KJHW) HAS JUST SCATTERED DECKS OBSERVED AROUND 4KFT. EXPECT CIGS TO
SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY LOW VFR CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL...LEAVING CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION...WITH PATCHY LOW DECKS
FOUND SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF
THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL PRODUCE 2-3 FOOT WAVES
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
AREA...NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND AND WAVE BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181809
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE THE
SHIELD OF LAKE CLOUDS BLANKETING AREAS FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG TERMINALS AS EXPECTED...WITH LOW
LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS AT KROC/KART. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KJHW
TERMINAL...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181809
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
209 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LAKES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN IMPACT CONTINUES TO BE THE
SHIELD OF LAKE CLOUDS BLANKETING AREAS FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
EAST THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IFR CIGS CONTINUE AT THE KBUF/KIAG TERMINALS AS EXPECTED...WITH LOW
LOW MVFR/MVFR CIGS AT KROC/KART. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/ISOLATED MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KJHW
TERMINAL...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

FRIDAY...ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
(POSSIBLY KJHW) WILL MIX OUT/BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z AS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 181524
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS POPPING UP JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING ALL
TOGETHER...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AT KBUF/KART CURRENTLY BEING SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED...WITH IFR CIGS AT KIAG/KROC. EXPECT
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO
KJHW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 181524
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1124 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY
WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING THE AREA WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS POPPING UP JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT THESE SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING ALL
TOGETHER...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
IMPACT OF THE FRONT WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
OSWEGO COUNTY. SOME FROST IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. WAITING ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE PACKAGE TO FINISH COMING IN TO HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS AT KBUF/KART CURRENTLY BEING SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED...WITH IFR CIGS AT KIAG/KROC. EXPECT
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CIGS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS...WITH LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO
KJHW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AT THE KART TERMINAL AS DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND LACK OF LAKE INFLUENCE.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WIND...WHICH ON LAKE ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO AT 11Z WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
THOUGH...AS THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A LIMITED
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LEGITIMATE SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE UPGRADED A
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. COULD NOT GET
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES OR CONSENSUS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SRN TIER..SO
WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL
HAVE TO RE EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AT DAYBREAK WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...AS LOWERING CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SRN TIER (INCL. KJHW) WHERE LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST WIND...WHICH ON LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 181110
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON FRIDAY...THEN AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL PUMP
NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO AT 11Z WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES
THOUGH...AS THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND A LIMITED
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LEGITIMATE SHOWERS WILL BE
FOUND EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
(IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE PEAK OF
THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD PRODUCE
SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE DAY
THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE UPGRADED A
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. COULD NOT GET
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES OR CONSENSUS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SRN TIER..SO
WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL
HAVE TO RE EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION AT DAYBREAK WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...AS LOWERING CIGS WILL BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SRN TIER (INCL. KJHW) WHERE LIFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST WIND...WHICH ON LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 180806
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK...WAVY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRETCHING WEST FROM THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE LENGTH LAKE ONTARIO AT 06Z WILL SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. THE FRONT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANYTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES THOUGH...AS THERE IS A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND A LIMITED SUPPLY OF MOISTURE.

THE MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOUND IN ITS WAKE THOUGH...AS `MILDER` AIR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE LIFTED A FEW THOUSAND FEET ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY (IE. ANABATIC PROCESS)...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW OF LAKE ENHANCED AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT THE
PEAK OF THIS COMBINED PROCESS...THE ENHANCED STRATO-CU DECK COULD
PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. THE FLAVOR OF THE
DAY THOUGH WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE FROM YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY
LATE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY REMOVE OUR UPSLOPE FLOW AS WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE AT ALL LEVELS. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT SFC WINDS WILL THEN PROMOTE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OF A FRESH CANADIAN AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
LAKES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S...WITH SOME FROST EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND POSSIBLY IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A
FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SO HAVE UPGRADED A
FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. COULD NOT GET
ENOUGH CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE PACKAGES OR CONSENSUS WITH
SURROUNDING WFO`S TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE SRN TIER..SO
WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF FOR NOW. THE DAYSHIFT WILL
HAVE TO RE EXAMINE FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL OPEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING FROM THE UPPER
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. PLENTY OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL LEAD
TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. AFTER A CHILLY START...THE
COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER
QUITE NICELY...WITH READINGS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT FURTHER
EAST AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BODILY SLIDES EAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC PROVINCES. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...
A STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL HELP TO TRANSPORT
PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS WILL BE SOME
15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AND A
DOWNRIGHT SUMMERLIKE DAY ON SATURDAY WHEN READINGS WILL SURGE INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LARGELY DRY
WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH THE BULK OF ANY DEEPER MOISTURE AND WARM
FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING TO OUR NORTH...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO
DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND GUSTS INTO
THE 30-35 MPH RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THIS FEATURE SHARPENING UP
AND DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...THIS WILL HELP SHUNT THE COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
EASTWARD...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY
APPROACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE PUSHING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SHOWER CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHEN SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL...PARTICULARLY DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A VERY MILD/BRISK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS...LEVELS THAT WILL BE SOME 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER AVERAGES.

BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD
FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE LARGELY TO OUR
EAST. A SWATH OF DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE WORKING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE FROPA...BEFORE LOWER-END SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...GOOD COOL AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THE RESULTANT COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS
WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY/LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. GIVEN THE MORE DISTANT TIME FRAME...HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD MUCH MORE BROADBRUSH IN NATURE...AND CONFINED TO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MIDWEEK AS STRONG
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AT ALL LEVELS. PLENTY OF ASSOCIATED
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE/WARMING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY WEATHER...
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER LAKE ONTARIO AT 07Z WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS FRONT COULD
GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING
CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE
LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR
FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER WHERE FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FRESHENING NORTHEAST WIND...WHICH ON LAKE
ONTARIO...WILL RESULT A SHORT WINDOW OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO IRONDEQUOIT BAY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT...THE WEAKENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS AND
WAVES TO SUBSIDE. MODERATE EASTERLIES WITH NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL
THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY.

A DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WHILE THE HIGHEST WAVES
WILL BE FOUND IN CANADIAN WATERS...THE STRONGER WINDS COULD LEAD TO
WIND BASED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
         AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/TMA
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180644
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL PRESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE WEE PRE DAWN HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 180644
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
244 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN ITS
WAKE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A COOL BUT OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST...ITS CLOCKWISE
CIRCULATION WILL PUMP NOTICEABLY WARMER AIR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR
SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL DRAG ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE IT TO A BUFFALO-ROCHESTER-SYRACUSE
AXIS BY 12Z. SINCE THE DYNAMICS WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE ANAFRONTAL
IN NATURE...ANY NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WHILE AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE BULK OF
ANY MOISTURE REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 5-10 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PRECIP CHANCES ATTENDANT TO THE ENCROACHING FRONT STILL
APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THAT
SAID...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AND ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SAGS SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...NO MORE THAN A
FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SEEN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE LAKE SHORES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY...LEAVING CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE ABUNDANT LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOL...MOIST
AIR PUSHES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE
GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE...WINDS LIGHTEN AND
DEWPOINTS LOWER. THIS WILL BE THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER LAKES AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY
TO THE COLDEST AND DRIEST AIR ACROSS QUEBEC. THE READINGS HERE ARE
LIKELY TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND A FREEZE
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A COLD START FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH
WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
AND HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SUMMERTIME LEVELS WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH A FEW READING NEAR 80 POSSIBLE
IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP AS HE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. IT
SHOULD BE A BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THE
DAY. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH TIME. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BAND OF
SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION TO REACH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS FEATURE...MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH...AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FOR THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS ADVECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP A COOL MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME STEADY STATE OVER THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LAKE
ENHANCED/INSTABILITY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT BY MID WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
COMING ACROSS THE SRN TIER WHERE VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
WILL PRESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS.

SYNTHETICALLY...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE WEE PRE DAWN HOURS...THEN
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THIS FRONT COULD GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES AS IT PUSHES SOUTH...BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY...LAKE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER IN ITS WAKE WILL LEAD
TO DETERIORATING CIGS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH WILL
ESCAPE THE LAKE INFLUENCES AND HAVE GREATER EXPOSURE TO THE COOL DRY
AIR FLOWING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS...A PERIOD OF MVFR/LOW MVFR
CIGS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AS COOL...MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL ALSO ADD
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT. EXPECT MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS TO HANG ON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE KBUF/KIAG/KROC TERMINALS...
BEFORE POSSIBLY SCATTERING OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE KJHW TERMINAL BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR...WITH SOME
LOCALIZED IFR SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AT 06Z WILL GRADUALLY
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT...ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
NORTHERLIES WILL BRING CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/RSH
MARINE...JM/RSH









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