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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE
DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOST LIKELY REGION FOR THE
SHOWERS BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ON
OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY STILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS TEH
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING EARLY TONIGHT OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG
TO DVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING AT NIGHT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS. FOG WILL BE LIKELY NOT ONLY IN THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED LOW LEVEL
COULD BRING PATCHES OF FOG.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREST THE BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY TO NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REACHING OUR AREA WITH LIKELY JUST A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WIND FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG...WITH POSSIBLY JUST THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN SEEING FOG.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BOOST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO 17-18C BY TUESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL RISES INTO THE LOWER
80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE THE PERIOD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS THERE
WILL BE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AS
AN EXPECTED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE AND
LIKELY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL...AND
NOT AS WARM AS THE PRECEDING DAYS AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BRING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/OCNLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MIX OUT. FOR THE MOST PART SKIES
WILL BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTOUGH A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO
MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MIX
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW TODAY. AS THIS FEATURE
DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOST LIKELY REGION FOR THE
SHOWERS BEING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING THEN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ON
OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY STILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS TEH
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING EARLY TONIGHT OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG
TO DVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING AT NIGHT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS. FOG WILL BE LIKELY NOT ONLY IN THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED LOW LEVEL
COULD BRING PATCHES OF FOG.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREST THE BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY TO NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REACHING OUR AREA WITH LIKELY JUST A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WIND FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG...WITH POSSIBLY JUST THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN SEEING FOG.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BOOST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO 17-18C BY TUESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL RISES INTO THE LOWER
80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE THE PERIOD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS THERE
WILL BE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AS
AN EXPECTED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE AND
LIKELY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL...AND
NOT AS WARM AS THE PRECEDING DAYS AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BRING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/OCNLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MIX OUT. FOR THE MOST PART SKIES
WILL BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTOUGH A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO
MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230833
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
433 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY/FOGGY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOST LIKELY REGION FOR
THE SHOWERS BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ON
OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY STILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS TEH
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING EARLY TONIGHT OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG
TO DVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING AT NIGHT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS. FOG WILL BE LIKELY NOT ONLY IN THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED LOW LEVEL
COULD BRING PATCHES OF FOG.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREST THE BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY TO NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REACHING OUR AREA WITH LIKELY JUST A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WIND FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG...WITH POSSIBLY JUST THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN SEEING FOG.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BOOST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO 17-18C BY TUESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL RISES INTO THE LOWER
80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE THE PERIOD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS THERE
WILL BE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AS
AN EXPECTED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE AND
LIKELY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL...AND
NOT AS WARM AS THE PRECEDING DAYS AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BRING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/OCNLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY
MID MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MIX OUT. FOR THE MOST PART SKIES
WILL BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTOUGH A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO
MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230833
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
433 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SET OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BRINGING
FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY/FOGGY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS
FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION IT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. MOST LIKELY REGION FOR
THE SHOWERS BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ON
OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY STILL KEEP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS TEH
SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING EARLY TONIGHT OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE CLEARING SKIES WILL THEN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG
TO DVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL DOMINATE OUR AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. THERE APPEARS TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION
TO START THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING AT NIGHT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIRMASS. FOG WILL BE LIKELY NOT ONLY IN THE
TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT ALSO ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND A SATURATED LOW LEVEL
COULD BRING PATCHES OF FOG.

ON TUESDAY A POTENT SHORTWAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREST THE BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY TO NEAR JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE REACHING OUR AREA WITH LIKELY JUST A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN CLOUDS TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A WIND FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT TO LIMIT THE EXTENT OF FOG...WITH POSSIBLY JUST THE SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN SEEING FOG.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FROM OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FEATURE A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BOOST 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UPWARDS TO 17-18C BY TUESDAY.
HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WILL RISES INTO THE LOWER
80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND CLOSE THE PERIOD IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND ROUNDING THE TOP OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS CONTINUE
TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO RETURN TO THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AS THERE
WILL BE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE AS
AN EXPECTED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE AND
LIKELY SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF UPSTREAM AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL...AND
NOT AS WARM AS THE PRECEDING DAYS AS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND
COOLER 850 HPA TEMPERATURES BRING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/OCNLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY
MID MORNING AS THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG MIX OUT. FOR THE MOST PART SKIES
WILL BECOME VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALTOUGH A
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WHICH COULD BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBY TO
MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES THROUGH THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THE MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFTED BY
A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEALTH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION... WITH SOME IFR STRATUS
OR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS.

ON SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL THIN/BURN
OFF. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...LEVAN/RSH
MARINE...LEVAN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THE MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFTED BY
A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS
THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ACROSS THE REGION AS A WEALTH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION... WITH SOME IFR STRATUS
OR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS.

ON SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL THIN/BURN
OFF. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...LEVAN/RSH
MARINE...LEVAN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230335
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED CONVECTION DURING THIS PAST
DAY...THE ACTIVITY WAS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY
AND THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. NOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE HAS
EXITED THE REGION AND THAT THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT...
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THE MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFTED BY
A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION...
WITH SOME IFR STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TIER OR IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS.
SITES MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE KJHW AND
KELZ.

ON SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL THIN/BURN
OFF. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230335
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1135 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTED CONVECTION DURING THIS PAST
DAY...THE ACTIVITY WAS LARGELY DRIVEN BY DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY
AND THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. NOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE HAS
EXITED THE REGION AND THAT THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED SOMEWHAT...
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. ONLY A SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THE MAIN PROBLEM OVERNIGHT WILL BE DETERMINING WHERE AND WHEN LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LIFTED BY
A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE SATURDAY
MORNING.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AS A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATO-CU ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION...
WITH SOME IFR STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN TIER OR IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS.
SITES MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE KJHW AND
KELZ.

ON SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL THIN/BURN
OFF. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
825 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MUCH OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
NOW EITHER DISSIPATED IN PLACE OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL
PRESENT. THIS INVERTED TROUGH ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS PERSISTENCE
WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO HELPING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED GOING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVED A
GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MAKING THEM GOOD
CANDIDATES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL.

SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHCENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BRING A CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HELPING TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED GOING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVED A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MAKING THEM GOOD CANDIDATES FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS AND FOG FOR KBUF/KROC/KIAG/KART...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR KJHW.

SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT...WITH KJHW
POSSIBLY STAYING DOWN A BIT LONGER. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
825 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING MUCH OF THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
NOW EITHER DISSIPATED IN PLACE OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. ONLY
EXCEPTION IS A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL
PRESENT. THIS INVERTED TROUGH ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT
MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS PERSISTENCE
WILL BE THE RULE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE
ONTARIO HELPING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED GOING INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVED A
GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MAKING THEM GOOD
CANDIDATES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL.

SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW BE IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY BEING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHCENTRAL
NEW YORK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
BRING A CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE WITH
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FORMING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO HELPING TO KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED GOING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION RECEIVED A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON MAKING THEM GOOD CANDIDATES FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG AS WELL. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS AND FOG FOR KBUF/KROC/KIAG/KART...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS FOR KJHW.

SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT...WITH KJHW
POSSIBLY STAYING DOWN A BIT LONGER. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. EXPECT MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE BRIEFLY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO
2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP WILL NOW BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE LAST SPOKE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING OUT OF NEW YORK STATE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY SUSTAIN JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER SHOULD LESSEN AS THE
NIGHT GOES ON WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80...AND LOWS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
JUST EAST OF THE REGION...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH WILL HELP RAISE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 80 IN  MOST LOCATIONS
TO THE LOWERS 80S IN A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN THE NICE STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE ALOFT
WHILE THE ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID...500MB HEIGHTS AND 850MB
TEMPS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF PROJECTING MORE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY. A CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TERMS OF THE STRENGTH AND AMPLITUDE OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED SLOWER MOVING UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH FASTER LESS
AMPLIFIED PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THUS THE GFS SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWS A
STRONGER SLOWER MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS LEFT BEHIND FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL LINGERING OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF HAS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL A
BIT BELOW AVERAGE ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS...WITH HIGHS BY FRIDAY
FALLING BACK EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS A COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES IN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S...AND A BIT COOLER
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO
2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221931
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO
2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JM
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221931
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SUBTLE FEATURE SHOULD BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE GENERALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO
2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE LAKES SATURDAY WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LAKES
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JM
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221741
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS/SREF HAVE THIS
FEATURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE NY/PA
BORDER BY 00Z. THIS SUBTLE FEATURES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY AHEAD (OR SOUTH OF) THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ENE
FLOW WILL PROBABLY HELP SHADOW LAKE ONTARIO AND THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN
TO 2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY
WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JM
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221741
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LIGHT WIND FLOW. ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN...AND THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO THE AIRMASS EXPECT
AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW NYS AND TO AREAS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT
FEATURE ON OUR WEATHER MAP SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...ONE LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS/SREF HAVE THIS
FEATURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE NY/PA
BORDER BY 00Z. THIS SUBTLE FEATURES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH
THESE GENERALLY AHEAD (OR SOUTH OF) THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ENE
FLOW WILL PROBABLY HELP SHADOW LAKE ONTARIO AND THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE FINGERS
LAKES INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN
TO 2-3K FT WITH VSBY BELOW 1SM IN +RA.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT
WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM
IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

AFTER FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIN OUT SATURDAY MORNING...ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY
WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JM
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221350
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
950 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE PICS SHOWING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AT 14Z.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND FOG TO GRADUALLY THIN OUT BY 16Z.

REST OF DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NOW
BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...BUT SEVERAL ADDITIONAL AND
WEAKER RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH
IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY COULD BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. WILL AGAIN FOCUS
THE HIGHEST OF THE CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE EAST WHERE GREATER
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL
DRIFT TOWARDS THE STATE LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN...AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO
THE AIRMASS EXPECT AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SW NYS AND TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE
LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS/SREF HAVE THIS FEATURE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z.
THIS SUBTLE FEATURES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WITH THESE
GENERALLY AHEAD (OR SOUTH OF) THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ENE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY HELP SHADOW LAKE ONTARIO AND THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE.

AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND
ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE OBS AND SATELLITE PICS SHOWING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER AT 14Z
WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS BELOW 1K FT. VSBYS HAVE INCREASED AT 14Z SO
THAT MANY AREAS ARE NOW AOA 6SM. EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE TO ABOVE 3K
FT ALL AREAS WITH VSBYS ABOVE 7SM BY 15Z-16Z.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. ANY
CONVECTION WILL HAVE CEILINGS DOWN TO 3-4K FT WITH VSBY AROUND 3SM.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT WITH THE PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE
SKIES SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE CEILINGS ONCE AGAIN
FALL BELOW 1K FT/VSBY BELOW 1SM IN FOG...WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES
ELSEWHERE IN PATCHY FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES TODAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY
WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/JM
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/THOMAS
MARINE...FRANKLIN/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221144
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY THE AREA LARGELY
RAINFREE...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
NYS. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST FOG IS FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM...THOUGH
THE MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR WILL REMAIN.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL NOW BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...BUT SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL AND WEAKER RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
WILL AGAIN FOCUS THE HIGHEST OF THE CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE EAST
WHERE GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A VERY WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE STATE LINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN...AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO
THE AIRMASS EXPECT AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SW NYS AND TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE
LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS/SREF HAVE THIS FEATURE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z.
THIS SUBTLE FEATURES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THESE
GENERALLY AHEAD (OR SOUTH OF) THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ENE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY HELP SHADOW LAKE ONTARIO AND THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE.

AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND ON
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z LIFR TO MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...THOUGH SOME LOW CIGS MAY
LAG FOR AN HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER COULD
BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN A DOWNPOUR. FOR THESE
SHOWERS WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE KART TAF SITE DUE TO THE
SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY BUT NOT TRY TO TIME ANY REDUCED VSBYS
WITHIN ANY DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AND ISOLATED IFR ELSEWHERE IN PATCHES OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES TODAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EVENING. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY
WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221144
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY THE AREA LARGELY
RAINFREE...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
NYS. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
FOG ACROSS THE REGION. THICKEST FOG IS FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM...THOUGH
THE MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR WILL REMAIN.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL NOW BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...BUT SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL AND WEAKER RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
WILL AGAIN FOCUS THE HIGHEST OF THE CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE EAST
WHERE GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A VERY WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE STATE LINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN...AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO
THE AIRMASS EXPECT AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SW NYS AND TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE
LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS/SREF HAVE THIS FEATURE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z.
THIS SUBTLE FEATURES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THESE
GENERALLY AHEAD (OR SOUTH OF) THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ENE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY HELP SHADOW LAKE ONTARIO AND THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE.

AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND ON
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z LIFR TO MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...THOUGH SOME LOW CIGS MAY
LAG FOR AN HOUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER COULD
BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITHIN A DOWNPOUR. FOR THESE
SHOWERS WILL INCLUDE A VCSH IN THE KART TAF SITE DUE TO THE
SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY BUT NOT TRY TO TIME ANY REDUCED VSBYS
WITHIN ANY DOWNPOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT WITH THE
PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE SKIES SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AND ISOLATED IFR ELSEWHERE IN PATCHES OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES TODAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EVENING. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY
WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING FAIR CONDITIONS AND LATE SUMMER
WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY THE AREA LARGELY NOW RAINFREE.
A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER NYS...BUT THIS FEATURE IS
LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH JUST A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THIS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AS SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP
SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT THE SURFACE...
INDICATING SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION. UPS FOG METHOD
IS ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER
THE TXOVER TEMPS.

AFTER THE MORNING FOG DISSIPATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL NOW BE JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...BUT SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL AND WEAKER RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY COULD BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
WILL AGAIN FOCUS THE HIGHEST OF THE CHANCE POPS TOWARDS THE EAST
WHERE GREATER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A VERY WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE STATE LINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING OF THE
SUN...AND THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY NOW DRIFTING TOWARDS NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA. WITH NO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING A CHANCE TO
THE AIRMASS EXPECT AGAIN PATCHES OF FOG TO FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SW NYS AND TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A VIRTUAL REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS TONIGHT AGAIN SIMILAR
TO THE PRIOR NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE
ON OUR WEATHER MAP SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ONE
LAST RIPPLE FROM THIS WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/RGEM/GFS/SREF HAVE THIS FEATURE ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AROUND 18Z SATURDAY...AND NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z.
THIS SUBTLE FEATURES SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THESE
GENERALLY AHEAD (OR SOUTH OF) THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AN ENE FLOW
WILL PROBABLY HELP SHADOW LAKE ONTARIO AND THE IMMEDIATE
SHORELINE.

AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE TO ASSERT ITSELF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND ON
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT WARMER
WITH ITS TEMPERATURES WHICH BRINGS IT INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
GFS. THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WARM STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE
REGION AS LIGHT WINDS...PATCHES OF CLEAR SKIES AND A REMAINING MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS GENERATING THE FORMATION OF FOG...AND OR LOW
CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH THE
KBUF/KART AIRFIELDS HAVING LIMITED IFR DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS FROM A RESIDUAL LAKE BREEZE. THE KJHW TERMINAL WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND DURATION OF IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS WHILE KIAG AND KROC SHOULD ALSO FALL TO IFR FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME LATE OVERNIGHT.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13-14Z TOMORROW WITH A FEW LAGGING
HOURS OF POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED IFR ELSEWHERE IN PATCHES OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DISSIPATING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NEW YORK STATE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ON THE LAKES TODAY. A FEW SPOT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EVENING. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN EASTERLY FLOW ON THE LAKES SATURDAY
WILL BRING PEAK WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR/APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EARLY MORNING DISPLAY THE AREA LARGELY NOW
RAINFREE. A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER NYS...BUT THIS
FEATURE IS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH JUST A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THIS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AS SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP
SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT THE SURFACE... INDICATING
SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION. UPS FOG METHOD IS ALSO
QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER THE TXOVER
TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE
REGION AS LIGHT WINDS...PATCHES OF CLEAR SKIES AND A REMAINING MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS GENERATING THE FORMATION OF FOG...AND OR LOW
CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH THE
KBUF/KART AIRFIELDS HAVING LIMITED IFR DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS FROM A RESIDUAL LAKE BREEZE. THE KJHW TERMINAL WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND DURATION OF IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS WHILE KIAG AND KROC SHOULD ALSO FALL TO IFR FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME LATE OVERNIGHT.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13-14Z TOMORROW WITH A FEW LAGGING
HOURS OF POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED IFR ELSEWHERE IN PATCHES OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EARLY MORNING DISPLAY THE AREA LARGELY NOW
RAINFREE. A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER NYS...BUT THIS
FEATURE IS LARGELY DIMINISHED WITH JUST A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH THIS WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AS SURFACE WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP
SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT THE SURFACE... INDICATING
SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION. UPS FOG METHOD IS ALSO
QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER THE TXOVER
TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE
REGION AS LIGHT WINDS...PATCHES OF CLEAR SKIES AND A REMAINING MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS GENERATING THE FORMATION OF FOG...AND OR LOW
CLOUDS. EXPECT IFR/MVFR ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH THE
KBUF/KART AIRFIELDS HAVING LIMITED IFR DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS FROM A RESIDUAL LAKE BREEZE. THE KJHW TERMINAL WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND DURATION OF IFR OR LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS WHILE KIAG AND KROC SHOULD ALSO FALL TO IFR FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME LATE OVERNIGHT.

THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13-14Z TOMORROW WITH A FEW LAGGING
HOURS OF POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR/MVFR RANGE. BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM PASSING ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED IFR ELSEWHERE IN PATCHES OF FOG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 220218
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSISTING...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAIN. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ALSO STILL FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO VERY SLOWLY END
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MAY REMAIN TO OFFSET DIURNAL
COOLING AND SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE
EXPECT THE PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED TO PERSIST
MOST OF THE TIME.

AS THE SURFACE LOW FALLS APART ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT
THE SURFACE... INDICATING SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION.
UPS FOG METHOD IS ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL
DEGREES UNDER THE TXOVER TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A
FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING IS NOW GONE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING TO STABILIZE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY SHOULD WEAKEN BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING...HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND UPS FOG
METHOD ARE BOTH QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE BROUGHT IN IFR FOG TO KIAG/KROC/KJHW WHERE FOG
IS MOST FAVORED UNDER THIS TYPE OF SETUP. LEFT IT OUT OF KBUF FOR
NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND A LOWER TXOVER
NUMBER. ALSO LEFT IT OUT OF KART WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THERE.

ON FRIDAY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM






000
FXUS61 KBUF 220218
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS PERSISTING...MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND MORE FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAIN. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE ALSO STILL FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS TO VERY SLOWLY END
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE ENOUGH SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT MAY REMAIN TO OFFSET DIURNAL
COOLING AND SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE
EXPECT THE PARTIAL CLEARING WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED TO PERSIST
MOST OF THE TIME.

AS THE SURFACE LOW FALLS APART ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE
WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT
THE SURFACE... INDICATING SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION.
UPS FOG METHOD IS ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL
DEGREES UNDER THE TXOVER TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A
FEW OF THESE MAY PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING IS NOW GONE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER STARTING TO STABILIZE.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NY SHOULD WEAKEN BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY THROUGH 04Z-06Z.
PARTIAL CLEARING...HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND UPS FOG
METHOD ARE BOTH QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE BROUGHT IN IFR FOG TO KIAG/KROC/KJHW WHERE FOG
IS MOST FAVORED UNDER THIS TYPE OF SETUP. LEFT IT OUT OF KBUF FOR
NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND A LOWER TXOVER
NUMBER. ALSO LEFT IT OUT OF KART WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THERE.

ON FRIDAY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 220001
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
801 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO MID EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION BEGINS. AS A
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT THE SURFACE...
INDICATING SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION. UPS FOG METHOD
IS ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER THE
TXOVER TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING...HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND UPS FOG
METHOD ARE BOTH QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE BROUGHT IN IFR FOG TO KIAG/KROC/KJHW WHERE FOG
IS MOST FAVORED UNDER THIS TYPE OF SETUP. LEFT IT OUT OF KBUF FOR
NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND A LOWER TXOVER
NUMBER. ALSO LEFT IT OUT OF KART WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THERE.

ON FRIDAY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM






000
FXUS61 KBUF 220001
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
801 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS INTO MID EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION BEGINS. AS A
WEDGE OF DRIER AIR PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS
AND ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION. NAM BUFKIT MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF NEAR SATURATION AT THE SURFACE...
INDICATING SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVELS FOR FOG FORMATION. UPS FOG METHOD
IS ALSO QUITE FAVORABLE WITH FORECAST LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER THE
TXOVER TEMPS.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY THIS EVENING.
PARTIAL CLEARING...HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE...AND SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD. MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS AND UPS FOG
METHOD ARE BOTH QUITE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WITH
THIS IN MIND...HAVE BROUGHT IN IFR FOG TO KIAG/KROC/KJHW WHERE FOG
IS MOST FAVORED UNDER THIS TYPE OF SETUP. LEFT IT OUT OF KBUF FOR
NOW GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND A LOWER TXOVER
NUMBER. ALSO LEFT IT OUT OF KART WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER THERE.

ON FRIDAY MORNING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z. IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS STILL DEEP ENOUGH...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS BEFORE MIXING OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JM







000
FXUS61 KBUF 212040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A NICE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WNY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES. MEANWHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A VERY SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS DRIER LAYER PUSHES
EASTWARD IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 20Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
COUPLE ISOLATED SPOTS SEEING MVFR/LOW VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A NICE STRATOCU DECK OF MAINLY LOW VFR/ISOLATED MVFR
CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
LAKE BREEZES.

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MONROE COUNTY AND POINTS
EAST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS WINDS GO
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THE EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY VERSUS
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING IS SEEN EARLIER
IN THE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CLEARING WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.

FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
HANG IN TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TOWARD THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 212040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
440 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN
FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
EASTERN QUEBEC WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS
ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A NICE STRATOCU DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WNY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZES. MEANWHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A VERY SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT
LYING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS DRIER LAYER PUSHES
EASTWARD IN COMBINATION WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK STATE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP ENOUGH INSTABILITY
PRESENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW YORK CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THAT
SAID...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK STATE...BUT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 80. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
A CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE
FOG FORMS. EXPECT ABOUT THE SAME AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE FACTORS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST BEGINS TO TILT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNDAY BEING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.

THE ADVECTION OF RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST MARITIME AIR OFF THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY...WITH COOLER READINGS IN
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE WHILE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH FURTHER WARMING EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPANSIVE RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN FOR THE MOST PART DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT (OUTSIDE OF THE USUAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH)THAT BY MID-WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MID-WEST WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURE WISE EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 20Z MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
COUPLE ISOLATED SPOTS SEEING MVFR/LOW VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A
MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
RESULTED IN A NICE STRATOCU DECK OF MAINLY LOW VFR/ISOLATED MVFR
CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND INLAND OF THE
LAKE BREEZES.

A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MONROE COUNTY AND POINTS
EAST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUE DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AS WINDS GO
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AND
LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THE EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY VERSUS
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING IS SEEN EARLIER
IN THE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CLEARING WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK.

FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MID MORNING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
HANG IN TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TOWARD THE
PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE THROUGH 18Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NEW YORK
STATE. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211503
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS
PRODUCING A THIN LAYER OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT SOME AND SCATTER OUT AS
WE CONTINUE TO HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE TODAY.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY.
THEN AS THIS DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE
STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 15Z A COMBINATION OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING IS ALREADY PRODUCING A THIN LAYER OF MAINLY MVFR
CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT
SOME AND SCATTER OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO PLENTY OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. A THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE ACTIVITY BEING SCATTERED IN NATURE WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THE EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY
VERSUS MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING IS SEEN
EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211503
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS
PRODUCING A THIN LAYER OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT SOME AND SCATTER OUT AS
WE CONTINUE TO HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON
INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM.
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN FREE TODAY.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY.
THEN AS THIS DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE
STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 15Z A COMBINATION OF MVFR/VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...COMBINED WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING IS ALREADY PRODUCING A THIN LAYER OF MAINLY MVFR
CIGS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO LIFT
SOME AND SCATTER OUT AS WE CONTINUE TO HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO PLENTY OF AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. A THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE ACTIVITY BEING SCATTERED IN NATURE WILL
CONTINUE WITH VCSH FOR ALL TAF SITES...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THE EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY
VERSUS MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING IS SEEN
EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DISSIPATE TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211341
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
941 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO
BREAK DOWN BY MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE
STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211155
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR LAKE HURON/GEORGIAN BAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL
DEFINED WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADVANCING ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE SE END OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS ACTIVITY FORMING WITHIN A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE
BEFORE LIKELY WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS WNY.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF
DAYTIME HEATING WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE SCATTEREDNESS OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITH
VCSH...WITH LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY REGION.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER LAKE HURON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WNY AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE A WARM FRONT LIES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER LAKE HURON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE
BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ILL DEFINED
WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG ARE FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...GENERALLY IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL THE PRECEDING DAY. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY MORNING WITH THE RISING SUN/MIXING HEIGHTS.

FOR TODAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENT CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE LOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. ACTIVITY
WILL BE MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHICH WILL LIE CLOSER TO THE WEAK WARM FRONT AS
WELL AS DEEPER MOISTURE. ACROSS WNY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR IN THE 850-500 HPA LAYER
WILL DIMINISH CONVECTIVE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS FAR WNY. THEN AS THIS
DRIER LAYER PUSHES EASTWARD IN COMBINATION OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND ANY
REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT OVER THE REGION AND SURFACE WINDS
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE
THICKEST ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND HILLS OF SW NYS.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. THE COOLEST 24-HR CHANGE TO THE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE TODAY WILL
START CLOUDY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY WHEN SOME SUNSHINE STARTED THE
DAY. TONIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH A
CONTINUED MUGGINESS FEEL TO THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE FOG
FORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BUT THIS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS. THERE WILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THIN AND NARROW CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SUBTLE AREA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY. NAM/SREF/RGEM/GFS CONSENSUS QPF
ALSO KEYS ON THIS REGION...BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPARSE
SUPPORTING JUST CHANCE POPS. OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING NE FLOW OFF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY HELP SHADOW THE NIAGARA FRONTIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
STRONGER CELLS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LIGHTNING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS SATURDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD END QUICKLY SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER SEASONABLE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUNDAY SHOULD
BE A TAD WARMER WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ALLOWING A FEW SPOTS TO
REACH 80 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE SHOULD START TO BREAK DOWN BY
MID-WEEK...BUT EVEN AS IT DOES THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE STRETCH OF
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND AMPLE SUNSHINE.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WNY AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT SOME
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS LIKELY WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...AND THEN DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THIS LOW TRACKS
EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210614
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
214 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NEAR
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND SOMEWHAT
LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE RAIN FELL WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WNY AREAS EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR HIGH END MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING THE STEADIER RAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAKING SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW
ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE REGION IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PASSING SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER
SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCAL IFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 210237
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING THE STEADIER RAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAKING SOME PROGRESS EASTWARD...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW
ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A LITTLE DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE REGION IS MOSTLY DRY...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO MAY DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A
BRIEF PASSING SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG
WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST
EAST OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY
REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER
SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE
MAINLY VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP
WITH LOCAL IFR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 202344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF
DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR
VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS
STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH
IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL END BY MID EVENING. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE
APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 202344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY
OF THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED SHOWERS
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NOTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...MAINLY THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE OVERNIGHT WITH WIDELY SCATTERED...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS.

THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FOUND FROM CENTRAL NY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHILE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND
SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN RISK FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. THAT SAID...THE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL AND VERY
ISOLATED SO NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE JUSTIFIED. AT THE SAME
TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN BY FAR THROUGH 06Z WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST ALONG A BAND OF
DEEP CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR VSBY WITH SOME IFR
VSBY IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH SPOTTY MVFR CIGS. THIS
STEADIER RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z WITH
IMPROVING VSBY...ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY REMAIN MVFR TO IFR ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN EVEN AFTER THE STEADIER SHOWERS EXIT.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ANY THUNDER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL END BY MID EVENING. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO BE MAINLY
VFR THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. AFTER THAT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES WHERE
APPRECIABLE RAIN FELL TODAY. A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLS. THIS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
POSSIBLY IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

IF THESE LOWER CIGS MATERIALIZE...THEY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE
IS FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND /ON
THURSDAY/ SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIG THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY ...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201950
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE MAJORITY OF
THOSE TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER
LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TO LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD INTO LAKE ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

TOGETHER...THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THEIR
NORTH AND EAST...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION
WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FOR OUR REGION...THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOUND
FROM THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHILE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SCATTERED THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF WEAKER FORCING...AND /ON
THURSDAY/ SOMEWHAT LESSER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...A MOIST AIRMASS...AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
BIG THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY ...PARTICULARLY IF CELLS CAN TRAIN REPEATEDLY OVER A
PARTICULAR AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ASIDE FROM THE ABOVE...SKIES SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE WARM
FRONT...WHERE SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING OF OUR WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY LARGELY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. IT
WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HUMID...WITH DEWPOINTS LINGERING IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW
TRAVERSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT UPPER LOW
SHIFTS TO THE ADIRONDACKS OVERNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
CLEARLY DEFINED SYNOPTIC TRIGGERS...WILL JUST STICK WITH LOWER-END
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO ENCROACH UPON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AS LINGERING
MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES. THIS
MODERATING EFFECT WILL CARRY OVER INTO THE NIGHTS WITH LOWS LARGELY
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT DURING
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. A
SURFACE HIGH SITTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL DRIFT EAST INTO LAKE ONTARIO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD...OTHERWISE A RELATIVELY FLAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND PROMOTE MINIMAL WINDS AND
WAVES RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE HURON...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT
TODAY...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
BROKEN SWATH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...
WITHIN A REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A MODEST
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED RETURNS ARE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...EASTERN
LAKE ERIE...AND NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THIS...ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE HURON...WITH ITS ATTENDANT WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT
TODAY...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
BROKEN SWATH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS BEGINNING TO TAKE
SHAPE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...
WITHIN A REGION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A MODEST
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED RETURNS ARE FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...EASTERN
LAKE ERIE...AND NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AT THE PRESENT TIME.

WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTENING...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE
AND THE BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL BE LOCATED. MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THIS...ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE
THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH THURSDAY...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST TO LAKE ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WHILE PUSHING AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEW YORK NORTHEASTWARD
INTO LAKE ONTARIO AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED BRIEF MVFR/IFR WILL
PERIODICALLY AFFECT AREAS OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHILE MUCH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE BEHIND IT.

OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...SAVE
FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WHEN SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR KBUF/KIAG...AND SOME MORE GENERAL
MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
OVER MICHIGAN...WITH AN ATTENDANT DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A DECAYING AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM FAR WESTERN NEW YORK EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING OF OUR AIRMASS
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ AND DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THESE FEATURES SHOULD HELP OUR CURRENT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM
GIVEN PROJECTED SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1430Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF OUR
AIRMASS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.

TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW
AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
KROC AIRFIELD BY 00Z AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201439
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...AND WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MUCH OF THOSE
TWO DAYS WILL BE RAIN FREE WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1430Z...REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD SURFACE LOW
OVER MICHIGAN...WITH AN ATTENDANT DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND INTO WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A DECAYING AREA OF
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PA IS SLOWLY LIFTING TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FOUND FROM FAR WESTERN NEW YORK EASTWARD INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING OF OUR AIRMASS
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES/ AND DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THESE FEATURES SHOULD HELP OUR CURRENT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY MORE
NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHEN SOME SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO FORM
GIVEN PROJECTED SBCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. WITH TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS...WHILE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LIKELY REMAIN VERY LOW.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGH TEMPS RANGING
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 60S.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT AND
FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH LATE DAY INSTABILITY...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE LIFT
OF THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WNY THIS EVENING. BY LATE OVERNIGHT THE BULK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TOWARDS THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO
THE STALLING WARM FRONT...WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WNY
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL PUSH TO NORMAL...OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS BE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
THE REGION...WITH 80S MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL BE
FOUND. TONIGHT A MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
60S WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT FLOW FEATURING A PSEUDO REX BLOCK OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BREAK DOWN AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25
WINDS RACING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND KICK OUT THE DOWNSTREAM CYCLONE. A BURGEONING RIDGE WILL
TAKE SHAPE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERAL IMPROVEMENT
OVER OUR REGION. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL INTO AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH
MODERATELY HIGH HUMIDITY.

THE ILL DEFINED REMNANTS OF AN H5 LOW IN THE VCNTY OF GEORGIAN BAY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC REFLECTION
WILL DRAG ONE LAST FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEING FOUND
EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING NEAR THE SFC
FRONT WILL BE FOUND. PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75 WILL BE A LITTLE
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT LIGHT STEERING WINDS EAST OF
ROCHESTER WILL PERSIST...SO THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SOME SLOW MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE THE ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN SOMEWHAT...A WARM AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS (C) SHOULD ENABLE MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. THE MODERATELY HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT FEEL
WARMER AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AFTER OUR RECENT STRETCH OF FALL LIKE
WEATHER.

THE SHORTWAVE AND SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST AWAY
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE THE
LEFTOVER SHOWERS TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE COURSE OF NIGHT
WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES LOWER (UP 50S-LOW 60S) THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...AN INTERESTING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE TO OUR
WEST. AN AMPLIFYING H5 RIDGE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND THIS WILL OVERLAY AN AREA OF
WEAKNESS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHARPEN
A THERMAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ALIGNED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO
CENTRAL LAKE ERIE. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FOCUS
IN THE VCNTY OF THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR WEST...OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
BE MAINLY RAIN FREE. SINCE A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION THOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PARTICULAR IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL THUS
MAINTAIN LOW CHC POPS FROM CONTINUITY.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE A STRONG SFC
HIGH OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
NEW YORK. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A THERMAL BOUNDARY IN
PLACE FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE AND WRN PENNSYLVANIA...WHERE IT
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. THE BULK
OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD THUS BE RAIN FREE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER AS A 593DM H5 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE VCNTY OF CAPE COD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...CLOSE TO 80 IN MANY AREAS MONDAY...AND THE LOWER
80S FOR MOST ON TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1430Z...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH JUST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FOUND IN ADVANCE OF
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEW YORK...
WHILE A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
ALOFT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF OUR
AIRMASS...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IN
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL.

TONIGHT WITHIN THE MOIST AIRMASS SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER ALONG WITH LOWERING VISIBILITIES. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME MVFR CIGS ELSEWHERE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS STILL LOW
AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS AND ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE EAST OF THE
KROC AIRFIELD BY 00Z AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ATTENDANT
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS MORNING TO
NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE IN PLACE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY
PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR/THOMAS










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