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000
FXUS61 KBUF 180808
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
408 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM RADARS PRESENTLY SHOWING VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ALONG MUCH OF ITS LENGTH...ALTHOUGH A BAND OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS JUST STARTING TO
TAKE SHAPE NEAR THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER.

THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...AS A MUCH STRONGER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION PUSHES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES TODAY.

HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE A
NOTABLE UPPER JET RESPONSE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS JET WILL FURTHER AROUSE FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND WILL ALIGN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A FAVORABLE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION.

GIVEN THESE EXPECTATIONS...A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THE AREA AS THE FRONT EASES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS THIS AREA BY
THIS EVENING.

THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP THROUGH EASTERN
ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO CLEAR THE AREA OUT OVERNIGHT.
ASSOCIATED COOLER AIR WILL DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR DRAPED FROM JAMES BAY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST
INTO NEW YORK STATE. AS A RESULT...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO DRY WEATHER AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AREAWIDE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS...850 MB READINGS RANGING FROM ABOUT +1C
ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK TO -4/-5C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL TRANSLATE INTO SURFACE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH LAKES WILL
BE KEPT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BY THE PREVAILING NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.

THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND WILL THEN FEATURE CONTINUED FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST AND OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH JUST A LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PRESSES IN OUR DIRECTION FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
TO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...THEN A RETURN SOUTHERLY
FLOW OF MILDER AIR WILL HELP SEND TEMPS BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE 850 MB TEMPS OF +5C TO +7C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...THOUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL NOT FARE TOO BADLY
EITHER WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
EVEN THERE. THE ABOVE STATED...AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES
WILL AGAIN BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THEIR INLAND COUNTERPARTS...
THIS TIME DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

DURING THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WHERE IT WILL THEN STALL AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY
AS WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING ALONG THE CENTRAL US-CANADA
BORDER HELPS KEY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THE ENCROACHING
FRONT WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY AS
MOISTURE AND LIFT BOTH BEGIN TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH...AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...AND SHOULD THUS REMAIN DRY RIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY A MORE LIMITED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A MILDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN
CONSIDERABLY MILDER AIRMASS IN PLACE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL THEN PUSH 850 MB TEMPS TO THE
+6C TO +9C RANGE ON MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BE KEPT A BIT COOLER
DUE TO THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND GREATER AMOUNTS OF
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH THE UPSTREAM
SURFACE LOW SLIDING EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHILE ALSO BRINGING THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. HAVE KEPT POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME CONFINED TO
THE HIGH-END CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW...THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY NEED
TO BE BUMPED UPWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE SHOULD THE INCREASED
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES
CONTINUE TO HOLD.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH NOTICEABLY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH OUR AIRMASS
PERHAPS GETTING COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO MIX IN
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FINALLY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BOTH APPEAR TO BE QUIET AND
DRY AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES DIRECTLY ACROSS NEW
YORK STATE TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT APPEARS
THAT SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE RIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS ON THURSDAY AS READINGS ALOFT BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES
BAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 180543
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FAIR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE REGION. A PEEK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS JUST OUR WEST
HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO
AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPINGE UPON THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROP UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ROCHESTER METRO.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BAND OF
SHOWERS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP CURRENTLY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AID IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON
FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 180311
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FAIR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS HANGING ON ACROSS THE REGION. A PEEK AT
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS JUST OUR WEST
HOWEVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN ONTARIO
AND A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY IMPINGE UPON THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. INCREASING
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROP UP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR
LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND ROCHESTER METRO.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK BAND OF
SHOWERS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE SPOTTY AT BEST AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP CURRENTLY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AID IN PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE
IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN
VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 180015
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
815 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. EXPECT BKN CIGS AROUND 5000FT TO MOVE
IN FROM 15Z ONWARDS ON FRIDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SSW WINDS AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A WEAK LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER 22Z...HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY WEAK AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN
VFR RANGE. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING FAIR WEATHER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM KROC EAST.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 172139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
539 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS UP. A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BLACK RIVER HAS CRESTED AT
WATERTOWN. ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT...CONTINUED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW FOR THE RIVER TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD/ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 172005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL QUICKLY SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. A CONSENSUS OF
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THIS FEATURE. DESPITE LIGHT QPF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH...THE
TROF SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE FOCUS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE FASTER MODEL
GUIDANCE...EXPECT SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF OUR REGION BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SOUTH SHORES OF THE LAKES IN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A
FEW CLOUDS...BUT GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BRING VERY NICE WEATHER TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN MOST
AREAS...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE A LAKE BREEZE WILL IT WILL BE
MUCH COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST TO
OUR NORTH. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED IN OUR
FAVOR...BY KEEPING THIS WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. IF THIS HOLDS...HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S INLAND. EVENTUALLY A CLIPPER LOW EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW GIVEN THE
ZONAL PATTERN AND MODEL SHIFTS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TIMING WILL
CHANGE WITH FUTURE RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS NOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES A BIT AS THE LOW EXITS TO
OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF






000
FXUS61 KBUF 171901
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE EASTERN US WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE TIP OF JAMES BAY BY FRIDAY EVENING.  THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION.  UNTIL LATE FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
SOME THIN CIRRUS AT TIMES.

LATE FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN NY...BUT WITH LITTLE LIFT AND MOISTURE.  A THIN LINE OF
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH TIMING OVER FAR WESTERN NY
AROUND 5-7PM DEPENDING ON LOCATION...AND A LITTLE LATER...SAY 6-8PM
FOR THE ROC METRO AREA...AND AROUND SUNSET OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.  THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD HAVE THE
LOWEST ALBEIT NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN ALTHOUGH MODELS
GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE.  REGARDING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...SOUNDING FORECASTS HAVE AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE WITH
MEAGER AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY BELOW ABOUT 500MB AND WILL THEREFORE
IGNORE THIS FOR NOW. OVERALL QPF LOOKS RATHER LOW...WELL GENERALLY
UNDER .1 INCH WITH A DURATION OF ABOUT 1-2 HOURS MAX IF THE RAIN
FORECAST WORKS OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA  OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND MAY BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM WI NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF









000
FXUS61 KBUF 171719 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.  MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOO AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.
06Z AND 12Z NAM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WITH A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT AND MAINLY FOCUS ON THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SREF SHOW
LOWER QPF WITH EACH FORECAST RUN...SUPPORTING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN NY.  IT MAY
INDEED RAIN...BUT THE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PALTRY...MAINLY
WETTING THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AND PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL
EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST.  WILL FINE TUNE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING BACK
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 5-6PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY WHILE
CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF











000
FXUS61 KBUF 171718
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
118 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.   THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.  MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOO AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.
06Z AND 12Z NAM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WITH A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT AND MAINLY FOCUS ON THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SREF SHOW A
LOWER QPF WITH EACH FORECAST RUN...SUPPORTING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN NY.  IT MAY
INDEED RAIN...BUT THE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PALTRY...MAINLY
WETTING THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...AND PROBABLY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST.  WILL FINE TUNE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING BACK
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 6PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY WHILE
CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF









000
FXUS61 KBUF 171425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1025 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING DRY
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES.   THIS WILL RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME THIN CIRRUS.  MINIMAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON.

DRY AND UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S...FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING MARK IN
THE SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOO AND NORTHEAST TOWARD QUEBEC.
06Z AND 12Z NAM DEVELOP WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO
THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO WITH A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS.
CURRENTLY THINK THAT THIS IS OVERDONE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
IT AND MAINLY FOCUS ON THE ONSET OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF SREF SHOW A
LOWER QPF WITH EACH FORECAST RUN...SUPPORTING A LOWER PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR FAR WESTERN NY.  IT MAY
INDEED RAIN...BUT THE AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PALTRY...MAINLY
WETTING THE GROUND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...AND PROBABLY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL EARLY EVENING IN THE WEST.  WILL FINE TUNE THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BY TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING BACK
PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 6PM FOR MOST OF WESTERN NY WHILE
CONTINUING TO KEEP THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLES. AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF A LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH
OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS. BEHIND THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL
SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/ZAFF
MARINE...TMA/ZAFF









000
FXUS61 KBUF 171118
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
718 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE WEDNESDAY LEVELS...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE FILTERED AT TIMES BY PASSING CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SOMEWHAT
FASTER TIMING TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 15-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 170831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
431 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE WEDNESDAY LEVELS...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE FILTERED AT TIMES BY PASSING CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SOMEWHAT
FASTER TIMING TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 170805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST TODAY AS WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN
ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE WEDNESDAY LEVELS...WITH MOST
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

SUNSHINE TODAY WILL BE FILTERED AT TIMES BY PASSING CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE-BASED RIDGING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
YORK STATE AT THE START OF FRIDAY WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ALLOWING A MODEST MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SOMEWHAT
FASTER TIMING TO THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWER CHANCES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +1C TO +3C SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES
AGAIN LOOKING FASTER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT STILL APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A
LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THESE COMING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THOUGH OVERALL PRECIP
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEST COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL SEND TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO
THE MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANY LINGERING RAIN/SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY ENDING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO
BETWEEN -1C AND -4C...HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...THOUGH THE SOUTH SHORES OF BOTH
LAKES WILL BE EVEN COOLER DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL THEN FEATURE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. WITH
A RETURN FLOW OF WARMER AIR SETTING UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE...TEMPS IN MOST PLACES SHOULD RECOVER NICELY IN TIME FOR
EASTER SUNDAY...WHEN READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE
EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ALONG THE LAKESHORES...
WHICH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN DUE TO DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE EASTERN LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEST OF ROCHESTER FOR A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WITH WINDS VEERING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY. THE GREATEST
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE LAKES.

WINDS SHOULD ABATE A BIT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 170531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
131 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ON UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER
CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...THE CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS
NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON
THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST
ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 170245
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1045 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
OVERNIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF
TODAY GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THU MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RIVER LEVELS ON UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE BLACK RIVER
CONTINUE TO FALL THIS EVENING...THE CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS
NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON
THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST
ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD










000
FXUS61 KBUF 170007
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
807 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A QUIET SPELL OF WEATHER TO
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH JUST PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
THE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE ONGOING ADVECTION OF WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY WARMER NIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT...NONETHELESS GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS DOWN IN
THE TEENS...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND WITH UPPER 20S
NEAR THE LAKES.

THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...THOUGH AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS EAST WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES PICK UP IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNSLOPING FLOW COUPLED WITH ONGOING WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO FLIRT
WITH THE 60 DEGREE MARK WHILE ELSEWHERE WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO AROUND
10KT THU MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 10-20KT POSSIBLE BY THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH BOTH THE BLACK RIVER AT
BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER FALLING BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED FOR THESE SITES...HOWEVER THE
CREST ON THE BLACK RIVER HAS NOT YET REACHED WATERTOWN AND GIVEN
RECENT HYDROGRAPH TRENDS ON THE BLACK RIVER...IT IS NOW EXPECTED
THAT THE RIVER WILL CREST ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN WATERTOWN
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE
AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...WOOD










000
FXUS61 KBUF 162000
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
400 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY BUT ALL IN ALL A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TAP.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
IN STORE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP HOLD TEMPS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THURSDAY WARM
AIR ADVECTS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO MINUS FIVE TO ZERO SO
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WEATHER BUT CHILLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE NOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. LARGE
SCALE LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS TO ALL
AREAS...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY. A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT ELSEWHERE EXPECT FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMBEDDED IN A ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION.
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON TIMING WITH A CONSENSUS
BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

AFTER THIS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND WASH OUT IN A
CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW. THERE WILL BE WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THIS...BUT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME EXPECT IT TO BE DRY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR
TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/JM
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 161811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES OF TODAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTEREND NEAR ERIE PA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD EAST AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPILL OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY BUT ALL IN ALL A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY ON TAP.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES
IN STORE FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER THE BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME
MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS WILL KEEP HOLD TEMPS FIVE TO TEN DEGREES
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. THURSDAY WARM
AIR ADVECTS ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING TO MINUS FIVE TO ZERO SO
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THEN
TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 161418
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1018 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE THIS AFTERNOON
THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
GIVING WAY TO MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL
BRING AN END TO ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OTHERWISE EXPECTED. IT WILL HOWEVER REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING
TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY
TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT ON
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
HYDROLOGY...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 161134
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BASED RIDGING DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH FAIRLY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED. THIS STATED...IT WILL STILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR
MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT
ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 160812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
412 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE TODAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVING WAY TO
MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE BASED RIDGING DRAPED FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE TODAY. DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL BRING AN END TO ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH FAIRLY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OTHERWISE
EXPECTED. THIS STATED...IT WILL STILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD FOR
MID APRIL WITH 850 MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVERING TO BETWEEN -9C AND -12C
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ONLY TRANSLATE INTO HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS FOUND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
FEATURE WILL KEEP FAIR AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS OUR REGION...
THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER TIME AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ALOFT. DUE TO THIS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
LIMITED MODERATION IN OUR AIRMASS...TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS COLD AS THIS MORNING/S...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE
MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY...RESULTING IN ANY
LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR
STRATOCU EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FALLING APART BY MID
MORNING. ONCE THESE ARE GONE...EXPECT UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY LATE THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL THEN FOLLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT
ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW
YORK STATE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ030.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 160604
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
204 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY GIVING
WAY TO MILDER WEATHER FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO CLEARING MOONLIT SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.

AS FOR TEMPS...IT WILL BE AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL
WITH FORECAST MINS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. RECORD
LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 AT KBUF...22 AT KROC...AND 25 AT
KART...ALL OF WHICH WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE
SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE REGION.
THIS CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LAST EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WHERE SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT /OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW
SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN THERE THOUGH...
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO UNLIMITED VFR BY MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SUCH CONDITIONS THEN DOMINATING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN SOME
CIRRUS-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE LOWER
NIAGARA RIVER AND SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF WATERTOWN. FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS...WHICH ARE AVAILABLE UNDER THE BUFFLSBUF
AND BUFFLWBUF PRODUCTS RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ030.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR/RSH
HYDROLOGY...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 160347
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1147 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING MOONLIT SKIES OVER OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO LINGERING STRATO-CU BETWEEN KROC AND KSYR WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO ABOUT DAYBREAK.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH FORECAST MINS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 15 TO 20. THESE SUB FREEZING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME POCKETS OF BLACK ICE. WE HAVE RECEIVED
VERIFICATION ON THIS RISK FROM ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE REGION. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

SPEAKING OF LOW TEMPERATURES...RECORD LOWS FOR THE UPCOMING MORNING
(APRIL 16TH) INCLUDE 20 AT KBUF...22 AT KROC...AND 25 AT KART. ALL
OF THESE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE
SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW YORK HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR
LEVELS...AND AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM ROC EAST TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWER WILL BE FOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FELL MONDAY NIGHT AND EQARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT THE MAIN
CAUSE FOR THE CURRENT FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT. RELATIVELY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 160300
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING MOONLIT SKIES OVER OUR REGION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUD BASE TEMPS WILL BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO LINGERING STRATO-CU BETWEEN KROC AND KSYR WITH SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO ABOUT DAYBREAK.

TEMPS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION...
WITH FORECAST MINS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 15 TO 20. THESE SUB FREEZING
TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SOME POCKETS OF BLACK ICE. WE HAVE RECEIVED
VERIFICATION ON THIS RISK FROM ACCIDENT REPORTS IN THE REGION. THIS
RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

SPEAKING OF LOW TEMPERATURES...RECORD LOWS FOR THE UPCOMING MORNING
(APRIL 16TH) INCLUDE 20 AT KBUF...22 AT KROC...AND 25 AT KART. ALL
OF THESE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE
SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR
MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW YORK HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR
LEVELS...AND AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM ROC EAST TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWER WILL BE FOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN FELL MONDAY NIGHT AND EQARLY IN THE DAY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT THE MAIN
CAUSE FOR THE CURRENT FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT. RELATIVELY
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE
SNOW ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS OVERNIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 152327
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
727 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY UNDER
AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. ALONG WITH THE CHILLY AIR...THERE WILL
AT LEAST INITIALLY BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH 15000 FT.
IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR CLEARING TO GET STARTED...BUT EXPECT
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING THE COURSE OF THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 6000FT...
BUT THIS TOO SHOULD MIX OUT LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER CLEAR
SKIES BY THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING.  THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF BLACK ICE WITH SHELTERED WET ROADS NOT HAVING A CHANCE TO DRY OUT
BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET PAST THE FREEZING MARK.  SOME ROADS ARE
ALREADY DRY OVER WESTERN NY...SO THIS WILL VARY FROM PLACE TO PLACE.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ALREADY ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS
RISK.

ONE EXCEPTION TO CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT
WAYNE THROUGH PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY.  EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...BUT UPSTREAM
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG LIVED HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPSTREAM DEW POINTS ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...AND WITH THE FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES SOME RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN
ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
LAKE SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 FOR MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN NEW YORK HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR
LEVELS...AND AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM ROC EAST TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SCT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SNOW SHOWER WILL BE FOUND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THE MAIN CAUSE FOR FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS
HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 152114
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT FACTOR INTO
THE EVENING FORECAST.

THIS LEAVES WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS WITH AT LEAST INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
15000 FT PER GOES CLOUD TOP IR SATELLITE DATA AND AMDAR OBSERVATIONS
AT KBUF AT 17Z.  IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR CLEARING TO GET
STARTED...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER MI.  THIS WILL LEAVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 6000FT...BUT EXPECT THIS TOO SHOULD MIX
OUT LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES FOR A PORTION OF
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF BLACK ICE WITH SHELTERED WET
ROADS NOT HAVING A CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
PAST THE FREEZING MARK.  SOME ROADS ARE ALREADY DRY OVER WESTERN
NY...SO THIS WILL VARY FROM PLACE TO PLACE.  ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

ONE EXCEPTION TO CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT
WAYNE THROUGH PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY.  EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...BUT UPSTREAM
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG LIVED HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...AND WITH THE FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES SOME RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN
ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
LAKE SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 FOR MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR
THIS EVENING...WHILE SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE BULK OF THE OW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT...LEAVING
SCT CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEE HOURS
OF THE MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THE MAIN CAUSE FOR FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS
HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 151947
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT FACTOR INTO
THE EVENING FORECAST.

THIS LEAVES WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS WITH AT LEAST INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
15000 FT PER GOES CLOUD TOP IR SATELLITE DATA AND AMDAR OBSERVATIONS
AT KBUF AT 17Z.  IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR CLEARING TO GET
STARTED...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER MI.  THIS WILL LEAVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 6000FT...BUT EXPECT THIS TOO SHOULD MIX
OUT LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES FOR A PORTION OF
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF BLACK ICE WITH SHELTERED WET
ROADS NOT HAVING A CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
PAST THE FREEZING MARK.  SOME ROADS ARE ALREADY DRY OVER WESTERN
NY...SO THIS WILL VARY FROM PLACE TO PLACE.  ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

ONE EXCEPTION TO CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT
WAYNE THROUGH PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY.  EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...BUT UPSTREAM
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG LIVED HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...AND WITH THE FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES SOME RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN
ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
LAKE SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 FOR MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE
HIGH WILL BRING A BIT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING...WHICH
SHOULD LAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL
THIS SHOULD BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES THIS FAR OUT IS
LOW...WITH THE FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE
POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS SAID...ANY SHOWERS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...WITH DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO PREVAIL
THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH 00Z AS A COLD SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
BY 06Z TONIGHT.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KFZY WHERE A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THE MAIN CAUSE FOR FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS
HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL






000
FXUS61 KBUF 151934
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
334 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON WEDNESDAY BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT FACTOR INTO
THE EVENING FORECAST.

THIS LEAVES WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY COLD
AIRMASS WITH AT LEAST INITIALLY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
15000 FT PER GOES CLOUD TOP IR SATELLITE DATA AND AMDAR OBSERVATIONS
AT KBUF AT 17Z.  IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR CLEARING TO GET
STARTED...BUT EXPECT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT DURING
THE EVENING HOURS AS SEEN UPSTREAM OVER MI.  THIS WILL LEAVE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH ABOUT 6000FT...BUT EXPECT THIS TOO SHOULD MIX
OUT LEAVING MOST OF THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES FOR A PORTION OF
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF BLACK ICE WITH SHELTERED WET
ROADS NOT HAVING A CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEFORE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
PAST THE FREEZING MARK.  SOME ROADS ARE ALREADY DRY OVER WESTERN
NY...SO THIS WILL VARY FROM PLACE TO PLACE.  ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

ONE EXCEPTION TO CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM ABOUT
WAYNE THROUGH PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY.  EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF LAKE RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS...BUT UPSTREAM
DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT LONG LIVED HORIZONTAL ROLL CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
WELL INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE ANY CLEARING TAKES PLACE.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE DROPPING
QUICKLY...AND WITH THE FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES SOME RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN
ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A
DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
LAKE SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 FOR MOST AREAS...AND A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF MVFR AND SOME IFR EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH 00Z AS A COLD SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE REGION
BY 06Z TONIGHT.  NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS A RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY OF KFZY WHERE A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL REMAIN...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THE MAIN CAUSE FOR FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS
HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 151755
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
155 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW OVER WESTERN NY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT IS LEFT OF A SYSTEM
THAT DROPPED ABOUT .75-1 INCH OF LIQUID AND ABOUT T-1 INCH OF
LATE SEASON SNOW. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS
YET TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT SHOULD
BE THROUGH THAT REGION BETWEEN 3-5PM. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE NOT CHANGED OVER
YET.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES AT ABOUT -14 OR SO AT 850MB...ENOUGH FOR A LIMITED
LAKE RESPONSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM THIS DUE TO A CAP AT ABOUT
6000FT...PRIMARILY WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE EXPECT
DECREASING CLOUDS TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. THIS MIGHT
SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF BLACK ICE GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES
AND UNTREATED ROADS. DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM ARE ALREADY DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS...SO FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE GUARANTEED WITH EXPECTED
LOSS OF CLOUD COVER LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE.
RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN
ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE
A DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
LAKE SHADOW/LOW TOPPED CUMULUS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOW TO RECOVER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE COOLER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY THROUGH 00Z AS A COLD SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY 06Z TONIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF KFZY
WHERE A PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THE MAIN CAUSE FOR FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS
HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
        PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR/ZAFF
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 151528
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1128 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW OVER WESTERN NY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AT 14Z WITH 12Z
KBUF SOUNDINGS TOGETHER WITH UPSTREAM YYZ AMDAR DATA AT 13Z
SHOWING HOW QUICKLY THE AIR COOLED ALOFT. OBSERVATIONAL DATA
TOGETHER WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY QUICK END TO
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEST...PROBABLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE SNOW SHOULD SIMILARLY END OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT UNTIL
LATE TODAY FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK GOOD /T-1 LOWER TERRAIN 1-3 HIGHER TERRAIN/ AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DOES A NICE
JOB MARKING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.

BEHIND THE STEADIER SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE-ENHANCED/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...THANKS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF -15C AIR CROSSING
THE LAKE AT 850 MB. WHILE THESE WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND
5-6 KFT...THESE COULD STILL PUT DOWN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. ELSEWHERE... SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHICALLY-
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SIMILARLY DYING OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK TO WELL BELOW
NORMALS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING READINGS PLUNGE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DROPPING TO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE
20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL
APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS SNOW MOVES
EAST OF WNY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

...FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...

AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...BUT THE MAIN CAUSE FOR FLOODING IS DUE TO THE SNOW MELT.
WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ON THE TUG HILL AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS. THIS
HAS CAUSED CREEKS AND RIVERS TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON THE BLACK RIVER BASIN.
THE BLACK RIVER AT BOONVILLE AND THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER ARE
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WITH CRESTS TONIGHT.
AFTER THE CONFLUENCE OF THE BLACK AND MOOSE RIVERS...THERE WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE
WATERTOWN FORECAST POINT. THIS WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
FARMLAND BETWEEN CARTHAGE AND LOWVILLE. ALSO...THE BLACK RIVER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY
LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHER CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ALSO FLOWING HIGH. THE BEAVER RIVER IS A
LITTLE OVER 5 FEET AND FLOWS THIS HIGH CAN START TO IMPACT SOME
AREAS ALONG THE RIVER NEAR CROGHAN. SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE BEAVER RIVER THROUGH TONIGHT. SMALLER CREEKS ARE
LIKELY TO BE NEAR CREST OR WILL CREST BY TONIGHT...BUT THESE STILL
WILL CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME ROAD CLOSURES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
        PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 151405
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1005 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW OVER WESTERN NY AND RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WILL THEN HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION AT 14Z WITH 12Z
KBUF SOUNDINGS TOGETHER WITH UPSTREAM YYZ AMDAR DATA AT 13Z
SHOWING HOW QUICKLY THE AIR COOLED ALOFT. OBSERVATIONAL DATA
TOGETHER WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY QUICK END TO
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEST...PROBABLY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE SNOW SHOULD SIMILARLY END OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT UNTIL
LATE TODAY FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK GOOD /T-1 LOWER TERRAIN 1-3 HIGHER TERRAIN/ AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS THERE. DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DOES A NICE
JOB MARKING THE RAIN/SNOW LINE.

BEHIND THE STEADIER SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE-ENHANCED/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...THANKS TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF -15C AIR CROSSING
THE LAKE AT 850 MB. WHILE THESE WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND
5-6 KFT...THESE COULD STILL PUT DOWN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO
BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. ELSEWHERE... SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHICALLY-
DRIVEN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE SIMILARLY DYING OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK TO WELL BELOW
NORMALS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING READINGS PLUNGE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DROPPING TO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE
20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL
APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

CONCERNS FOR THIS EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS SNOW MOVES
EAST OF WNY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
        PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 151147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY FINISH PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
NORTH COUNTRY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER...WITH AN
ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM
NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE WILL RIPPLE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WHILE HELPING TO SHOVE THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...ITS ATTENDANT SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE AXIS OF BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE DEPARTS
OFF TO OUR EAST.

WHILE REGIONAL SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE LURKS JUST UPSTREAM. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REAR OF THE
FRONT WILL FORCE A QUICK MIX WITH AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

JUDGING FROM UPSTREAM TRENDS...EXPECT THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK ONE...WITH JUST A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
CHANGEOVER. SHOULD SUCH A MIX COME TO FRUITION THOUGH...EXPECT IT TO
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT GIVEN ITS EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE...THE HIGH
MID APRIL SUN ANGLE...AND THE WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS STEMMING FROM
THE WARMER WEATHER OF THE PAST 4-5 DAYS. ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES
OVER TO ALL SNOW...EXPECT THE APRIL SUN AND WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS
TO HAVE A SIMILAR ADVERSE IMPACT ON ANY SUBSEQUENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS... WITH THESE LIKELY BEING LIMITED TO SLUSHY AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR LESS ON GRASSY/ ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND ACCUMS OF 1-2" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH ALL
OF THIS IN MIND...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

BEHIND THE STEADIER SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LAKE-ENHANCED/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING...THANKS TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF -15C AIR CROSSING THE LAKE AT 850 MB.
WHILE THESE WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 5-6 KFT...THESE COULD STILL
PUT DOWN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. ELSEWHERE...
SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE
SIMILARLY DYING OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK TO WELL BELOW
NORMALS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING READINGS PLUNGE TO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DROPPING TO
THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH ARE
20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND ALL
APPEAR TO AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
NORTH COUNTRY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER...WITH AN
ELONGATED WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM
NEW YORK INTO PENNSYLVANIA. WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE ELONGATED SURFACE WAVE WILL RIPPLE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...WHILE HELPING TO SHOVE THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...ITS ATTENDANT SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE AXIS OF BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE DEPARTS
OFF TO OUR EAST.

WHILE REGIONAL SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE LURKS JUST UPSTREAM. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REAR OF THE
FRONT WILL FORCE A QUICK MIX WITH AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

JUDGING FROM UPSTREAM TRENDS...EXPECT THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW TO BE A FAIRLY QUICK ONE...WITH JUST A VERY BRIEF WINDOW FOR
SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
CHANGEOVER. SHOULD SUCH A MIX COME TO FRUITION THOUGH...EXPECT IT TO
HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT GIVEN ITS EXPECTED BRIEF NATURE...THE HIGH
MID APRIL SUN ANGLE...AND THE WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS STEMMING FROM
THE WARMER WEATHER OF THE PAST 4-5 DAYS.

OVERALL...EXPECT CIGS TO RANGE FROM LIFR TO MVFR TODAY...WITH VSBYS
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS THE RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. VSBYS WILL THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SOME LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FURTHER
EAST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ON THE TUG HILL...HOWEVER
THIS HAS BEEN MELTING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...SMALLER CREEKS FED BY THE TUG HILL AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NEAR
BANKFULL DURING THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY... UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE BOTH CREEKS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS TO
RISE.

AS OF THIS WRITING...THE BLACK RIVER IS ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD AT
WATERTOWN. RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RIVER
LEVEL HIGHER...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY/S RAINS NOW EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FORCE THE RIVER INTO
MODERATE FLOOD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...THE RIVER IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT BOONVILLE. OVERALL...
EXPECT MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY AT LEAST UNTIL
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

ADDITIONALLY...THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER IS ALSO RUNNING CLOSE
TO FLOOD STAGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST A LITTLE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY RECEDING BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
        PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 150935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
535 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY FINISH PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO THE
VICINITY OF THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING...A LARGER AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS NOW RUNNING FROM ABOUT SAINT CATHERINES
ONTARIO TO ERIE PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE SURFACE WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE HELPING TO SHOVE THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LARGE AREA OF
STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AXIS OF BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE
LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE DEPARTS OFF TO OUR EAST.

EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
THE STEADIER PRECIP...BEFORE STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
REAR OF THE FRONT FORCES A MIX WITH AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD...MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SOME SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN... HOWEVER EVEN IF SUCH A MIX COMES TO FRUITION
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM THIS GIVEN BOTH THE HIGH MID APRIL
SUN ANGLE...AND WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS STEMMING FROM THE WARMER
WEATHER OF THE PAST 4-5 DAYS. ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW...EXPECT THE APRIL SUN AND WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS TO HAVE A
SIMILAR ADVERSE IMPACT ON ANY SUBSEQUENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH
THESE LIKELY BEING LIMITED TO SLUSHY AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ON
GRASSY/ ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND ACCUMS
OF 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...HAVE
HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

BEHIND THE STEADIER SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LAKE-ENHANCED/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING...THANKS TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF -15C AIR CROSSING THE LAKE AT 850 MB.
WHILE THESE WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 5-6 KFT...THESE COULD STILL
PUT DOWN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. ELSEWHERE...
SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE
SIMILARLY DYING OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING READINGS PLUNGE
TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DROPPING
TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH
ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND
ALL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO THE
VICINITY OF THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING...A LARGER AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS NOW RUNNING FROM ABOUT SAINT CATHERINES ONTARIO
TO ERIE PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE SURFACE WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE HELPING TO SHOVE THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LARGE AREA OF
STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AXIS OF BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE
LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE DEPARTS OFF TO OUR EAST.

BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND FORCE THE RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST.
THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN DURING
THE TRANSITION PERIOD...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT GIVEN THE HIGH MID APRIL SUN ANGLE AND OUR RECENT STRETCH
OF WARMER WEATHER...WHICH HAS WARMED THE GROUND ABOVE FREEZING.

OVERALL...EXPECT CIGS TO RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR TODAY...WITH VSBYS
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR AS THE RAIN MIXES WITH AND CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. VSBYS WILL THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SOME LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ENDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ON THE TUG HILL...HOWEVER
THIS HAS BEEN MELTING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MELT THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT...SMALLER CREEKS FED BY THE TUG HILL AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW NEAR
BANKFULL DURING THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY... UP TO AN INCH OF
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH
TODAY...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE BOTH CREEKS AND MAIN STEM RIVERS TO
RISE.

AS OF THIS WRITING...THE BLACK RIVER IS ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD AT
WATERTOWN. RAIN AND SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE RIVER
LEVEL HIGHER...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE WAKE OF
TODAY/S RAINS NOW EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FORCE THE RIVER INTO
MODERATE FLOOD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FURTHER UPSTREAM...THE RIVER IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT BOONVILLE. OVERALL...
EXPECT MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BLACK
RIVER FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME...PROBABLY AT LEAST UNTIL
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

ADDITIONALLY...THE MOOSE RIVER AT MCKEEVER IS ALSO RUNNING CLOSE
TO FLOOD STAGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO CREST A LITTLE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE TODAY...BEFORE SLOWLY RECEDING BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE
TONIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
        PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 150842
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
442 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY FINISH PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT CHANGING TO WET SNOW BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COLD THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATING BACK TO MORE NORMAL
LEVELS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST TO THE
VICINITY OF THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF THIS WRITING...A LARGER AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ENCROACH ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS NOW RUNNING FROM ABOUT SAINT CATHERINES ONTARIO
TO ERIE PENNSYLVANIA.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY...THE SURFACE WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL
RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE HELPING TO SHOVE THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS THIS OCCURS...THE LARGE AREA OF
STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AXIS OF BEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE
LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE DEPARTS OFF TO OUR EAST.

EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES TO SUPPORT RAIN AT THE ONSET OF
THE STEADIER PRECIP...BEFORE STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE
REAR OF THE FRONT FORCES A MIX WITH AND EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL BEGIN EARLY
THIS MORNING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BETWEEN LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. DURING THIS TRANSITION
PERIOD...MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW WHEN THE PRECIPITATION MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SOME SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN... HOWEVER EVEN IF SUCH A MIX COMES TO FRUITION
EXPECT LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM THIS GIVEN BOTH THE HIGH MID APRIL
SUN ANGLE...AND WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS STEMMING FROM THE WARMER
WEATHER OF THE PAST 4-5 DAYS. ONCE THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW...EXPECT THE APRIL SUN AND WARMER GROUND CONDITIONS TO HAVE A
SIMILAR ADVERSE IMPACT ON ANY SUBSEQUENT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WITH
THESE LIKELY BEING LIMITED TO SLUSHY AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ON
GRASSY/ ELEVATED SURFACES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND ACCUMS
OF 1-3" ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...HAVE
HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THE PRESENT
TIME.

BEHIND THE STEADIER SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LAKE-ENHANCED/LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING...THANKS TO A
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF -15C AIR CROSSING THE LAKE AT 850 MB.
WHILE THESE WILL NOT BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
GIVEN INVERSION HEIGHTS OF ONLY AROUND 5-6 KFT...THESE COULD STILL
PUT DOWN A COUPLE OF INCHES OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT. ELSEWHERE...
SOME ADDITIONAL OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BEFORE
SIMILARLY DYING OUT.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BACK TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH ALL AREAS SEEING READINGS PLUNGE
TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE FURTHER DROPPING
TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT. RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 16TH
ARE 20 IN BUFFALO...22 IN ROCHESTER...AND 25 IN WATERTOWN...AND
ALL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BEING BROKEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER
BUT CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON
THURSDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH MORE
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE EXTREMES OF EARLY THIS WEEK...THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE WEEK WILL BE FAIR WITH QUITE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT DRY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS...A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GGEM/ECMWF/GFS ARE
A BIT FASTER WITH A CLIPPER LOW WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GGEM IS A MOIST OUTLIER...BUT MOST
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCE POPS.

AFTER THIS...A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL
BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND FREQUENT WEAK SYSTEMS WHICH MAY
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN MODEL TIMING WEAK SHORTWAVES
AT THIS TIMEFRAME IS LOW...WITH FORECAST REFLECTING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LOW CHANCE POPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION...AND
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL BATCHES OF RAIN SHOWERS THAT
HAD BEEN AFFECTING THE CWA ARE NOW IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF ONE OF THESE HAVING JUST CLEARED
NIAGARA COUNTY...AND THE OTHER NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
IN THEIR WAKE...RELATIVELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE THE NEXT AREA OF STEADIER RAIN BEGINS
PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER ABOUT 08Z. THIS SHOULD
REMAIN ALL RAIN THROUGH ABOUT 10 OR 11Z...AFTER WHICH TIME COOLING
OF THE COLUMN WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE A MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT
IFR TO MVFR TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF LOW VFR
STILL MIXED IN EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND FORCE RAIN TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN DURING THE TRANSITION PERIOD...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW. EXPECT LOWER VSBYS TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW...WITH CIGS GENERALLY
RUNNING IFR TO MVFR.

EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SOME SCATTERED LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW VSBYS TO
RETURN BACK TO VFR...THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES WILL RETURN TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER AHEAD...EXPECT MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT ON THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM NEW YORK STATE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK ON THE TUG
HILL...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEEN MELTING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SMALLER CREEKS FED BY
THE TUG HILL AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW NEAR BANKFULL DURING THIS PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...
UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO CAUSE BOTH CREEKS AND MAIN
STEM RIVERS TO RISE.

THE BLACK RIVER IS ALREADY AT FLOOD STAGE AT WATERTOWN. RAIN AND SNOW
MELT WILL PUSH THIS GRADUALLY HIGHER...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES
LIKELY FOLLOWING TODAY/S RAINS. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING ON THE BLACK RIVER FROM LOWVILLE TO WATERTOWN...WITH THE
RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...PROBABLY UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11
         PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL/JJR









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