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000
FXUS61 KBUF 301424
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A WARM AND HUMID START BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CWA IS RAIN-FREE AT DAYBREAK
AND THE DEPARTURE OF A MODEST LLJ SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUD THIS MORNING...AND CUMULUS FIELDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP NOW
INLAND FROM THE LAKES AS WE APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AND THE
CINH ON THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING IS ERASED. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
CROSSING WESTERN NY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS...INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
INSTABILITY REACHES SUFFICIENT LEVELS TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MARKING THE STRONGER FLOW ON
THE LAKE PLAINS FROM THE WEAKER...SLIGHTLY BACKED WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON COUNTY MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH STABLE LAKE SHADOWS.

DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/ARW) SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES AND QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES...AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WAYNE TO LEWIS COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVY
RAIN...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WITH 850MB WINDS ONLY ABOUT
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA AND THERE IS CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING WHEN THE COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE (NEARLY CERTAIN) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST AIR
MASS MIXES WITH THE COOLER AIR AND GETS SQUEEZED BY THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS
IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS 21Z- 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE WIND
SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. IFR CIGS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY
A TSTM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 301424
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1024 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A WARM AND HUMID START BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CWA IS RAIN-FREE AT DAYBREAK
AND THE DEPARTURE OF A MODEST LLJ SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
CLOUD THIS MORNING...AND CUMULUS FIELDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP NOW
INLAND FROM THE LAKES AS WE APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AND THE
CINH ON THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING IS ERASED. SOME OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD
CROSSING WESTERN NY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF ALTOCUMULUS
CASTELLANUS...INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN
INSTABILITY REACHES SUFFICIENT LEVELS TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT
TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MARKING THE STRONGER FLOW ON
THE LAKE PLAINS FROM THE WEAKER...SLIGHTLY BACKED WINDS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LAKES SHOULD KEEP THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND JEFFERSON COUNTY MAINLY DRY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON WITH STABLE LAKE SHADOWS.

DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/ARW) SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES AND QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
FINGER LAKES...AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM WAYNE TO LEWIS COUNTIES.
GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVY
RAIN...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WITH 850MB WINDS ONLY ABOUT
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA AND THERE IS CHANCE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE STORMS...BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED OR
WIDESPREAD IS EXPECTED.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING WHEN THE COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE (NEARLY CERTAIN) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST AIR
MASS MIXES WITH THE COOLER AIR AND GETS SQUEEZED BY THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS
IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS 21Z- 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE WIND
SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. IFR CIGS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY
A TSTM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301134
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A WARM AND HUMID START BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CWA IS RAIN-FREE AT DAYBREAK
AND THE DEPARTURE OF A MODEST LLJ SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. IR SATELLITE SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR DELAYS THE ONSET OF CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS WHICH SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING KEEP
THE LAKE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WHICH WILL DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL STILL NEED A FOCUS...AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
IT WILL PROBABLY BE LAKE BREEZE OR TERRAIN BOUNDARIES THAT DO THIS.

DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/ARW) SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES AND QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
WAYNE TO LEWIS COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVY RAIN...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WITH 850MB WINDS ONLY ABOUT
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA AND THERE IS CHANCE FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING WHEN THE COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE (NEARLY CERTAIN) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST AIR
MASS MIXES WITH THE COOLER AIR AND GETS SQUEEZED BY THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS
IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS 21Z- 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE WIND
SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. IFR CIGS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY
A TSTM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301134
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A WARM AND HUMID START BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE CWA IS RAIN-FREE AT DAYBREAK
AND THE DEPARTURE OF A MODEST LLJ SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY FOR
THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. IR SATELLITE SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE HRRR DELAYS THE ONSET OF CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE TRENDS
HAVE LOWERED POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
RAISED FORECAST MAX TEMPS WHICH SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING KEEP
THE LAKE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WHICH WILL DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL STILL NEED A FOCUS...AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
IT WILL PROBABLY BE LAKE BREEZE OR TERRAIN BOUNDARIES THAT DO THIS.

DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/ARW) SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES AND QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
WAYNE TO LEWIS COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVY RAIN...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG WITH 850MB WINDS ONLY ABOUT
25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR CWA AND THERE IS CHANCE FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING WHEN THE COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE (NEARLY CERTAIN) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST AIR
MASS MIXES WITH THE COOLER AIR AND GETS SQUEEZED BY THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE EXACT
LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS
IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS 21Z- 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS TO IFR OR LOWER TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE WIND
SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM. IFR CIGS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY...POSSIBLY
A TSTM. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A WARM AND HUMID START BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 40 KT
LLJ WILL EXIT UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR
REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING KEEP
THE LAKE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WHICH WILL DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL STILL NEED A FOCUS...AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
IT WILL PROBABLY BE LAKE BREEZE OR TERRAIN BOUNDARIES THAT DO THIS.

DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/ARW) SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES AND QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
WAYNE TO LEWIS COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVY RAIN...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...WITH 850MB WINDS ONLY ABOUT 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THERE IS ALWAYS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS...BUT FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING WHEN THE COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE (NEARLY CERTAIN) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST AIR
MASS MIXES WITH THE COOLER AIR AND GETS SQUEEZED BY THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
EXACT LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LOWER VSBY 2SM OR
LESS IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS 21Z THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO IFR OR LOWER
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEEKEND WILL GET OFF TO A WARM AND HUMID START BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OFF SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 80S BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 40 KT
LLJ WILL EXIT UP THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR
REGION MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH A STRAY
SHOWER CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRST DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HELPING KEEP
THE LAKE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED WHICH WILL DELAY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS. CONVECTION WILL STILL NEED A FOCUS...AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE
IT WILL PROBABLY BE LAKE BREEZE OR TERRAIN BOUNDARIES THAT DO THIS.

DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CONSENSUS MODEL QPF...HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (HRRR/WRF/ARW) SHOWS AREAL COVERAGE RELATIVELY SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THIS DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. PWATS TO 1.75 INCHES AND QPF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALIZED
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THESE AMOUNTS ARE EAST OF LAKE ERIE IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND ESE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
WAYNE TO LEWIS COUNTIES. GIVEN THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVY RAIN...DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
A FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...WITH 850MB WINDS ONLY ABOUT 25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THERE IS ALWAYS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS...BUT FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL
BRING LARGE SCALE FORCING WHEN THE COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARM
MOIST AIRMASS. THUS THERE IS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE (NEARLY CERTAIN) IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WITH A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE MOIST AIR
MASS MIXES WITH THE COOLER AIR AND GETS SQUEEZED BY THE DEVELOPING
INVERSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX STORM AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
EVOLVE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY WILL LIE FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND BACK TOWARDS THE MID WEST. A
SURFACE WAVE RIDING SLOWLY ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ANOTHER WAVE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. PWATS SUNDAY WILL AVERAGE 1.50 TO 1.75
INCHES...INDICATING THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT. SHARP
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WAVE
AND THE STILL PRESENT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL PROVIDE FOR BROAD LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THIS LIFT PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL SLOWLY
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND SURFACE
WAVE SLIDE EASTWARD. BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE AREAS MOST PRONE TO RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE. HOWEVER WITH
THE SURFACE WAVE STALLING OVER PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY NIGHT...ALL
AREAS OF THE CWA WILL HAVE AT LEAST LIKELY POPS.

INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH WHAT INSTABILITY TO BE HAD THIS DAY LYING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WILL PLACE THUNDER CHANCES HERE...WHILE JUST CALLING
IT PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

WE HAVE NOT HAD A WIDESPREAD, LONG DURATION SYNOPTIC PRECIPITATION
EVENT OF THIS MAGNITUDE IN QUITE SOME TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL AVERAGE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH A FEW AREAS UPWARDS TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. ALL TOLD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND
LOW CREEK AND STREAM FLOWS RIVER FLOODING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN AT
THIS POINT...AND WOULD ONLY BECOME A CONCERN IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
TRAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

BY MONDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL BE NEAR THE
REGION AND WILL ADVANCE FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TOWARDS THE
EASTERN MID ATLANTIC REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SURFACE
LOW AND EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR
AMPLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE REGION. A MOISTURE RICH
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THE POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WILL NOT MAKE FOR A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

RAIN SHOWERS MAY NOT TAPER OFF AS QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
INCREASE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DAY SUCH THAT LOW TOP SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME. MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND GREATEST TOWARDS
THE EAST...FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY THICK ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH CLEARING SLOWLY EDGING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT UNDER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THIS TIME PERIOD WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE 50S. A FEW LOW 60S ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE STATE LINE WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY EDGE NORTHWARD ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. TUESDAY
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF ONLY +4 TO +5C
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 40S...5 TO 10F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. NICE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN WITH US WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...ALBEIT SMALL WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY BLOSSOMING
ON A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW
TEENS CELSIUS ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO
THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
EXACT LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LOWER VSBY 2SM OR
LESS IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED IMPACT ON FLIGHT
OPERATIONS 21Z THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO IFR OR LOWER
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP
IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE WATERS STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY WHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ044-045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
         EDT THIS EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED
IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS 21Z THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO IFR OR LOWER
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED
IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS 21Z THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO IFR OR LOWER
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED
IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS 21Z THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO IFR OR LOWER
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT
SHOULD BE DRY...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL
BE IN PLACE. GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD
MOSTLY RANGE BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT THE VAST MAJORITY OF TIME TO BE DRY THROUGH 16Z. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER VSBY/CIGS
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE SPARSE THROUGH THIS MORNING.

DIURNAL INSTABILITY CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...FIRST ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS BUT THEN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THERE IS LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LOWER VSBY 2SM OR LESS IN HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD HAVE AN EXTENDED
IMPACT ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS 21Z THROUGH 03Z SUNDAY.

THE FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY
WHICH WILL LOWER CIGS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO IFR OR LOWER
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. SHOWERS WILL LINGER WITH PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED TSTMS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0230Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
INTERACTS WITH OUR WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...WITH THE
BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVING BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND NOW SITUATED FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHWARD INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE PRE-EXISTING CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ONGOING
SPOTTY CONVECTION SHOULD STILL WANE BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ONCE THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. FOLLOWING
THIS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POP
UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THEIR PARENT SHORTWAVE...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL RULE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0230Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
INTERACTS WITH OUR WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...WITH THE
BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVING BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND NOW SITUATED FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHWARD INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE PRE-EXISTING CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ONGOING
SPOTTY CONVECTION SHOULD STILL WANE BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ONCE THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. FOLLOWING
THIS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POP
UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THEIR PARENT SHORTWAVE...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL RULE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0230Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
INTERACTS WITH OUR WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...WITH THE
BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVING BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND NOW SITUATED FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHWARD INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE PRE-EXISTING CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ONGOING
SPOTTY CONVECTION SHOULD STILL WANE BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ONCE THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. FOLLOWING
THIS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POP
UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THEIR PARENT SHORTWAVE...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL RULE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0230Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER SPOTTY BRIEF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
INTERACTS WITH OUR WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...WITH THE
BULK OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY HAVING BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST HOUR
AND NOW SITUATED FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHWARD INTO LAKE
ONTARIO. BASED ON THIS...HAVE EXPANDED THE PRE-EXISTING CHANCE
POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE ONGOING
SPOTTY CONVECTION SHOULD STILL WANE BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ONCE THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. FOLLOWING
THIS...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN MOST
PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED POP
UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THE ABOVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE
BETWEEN 65 AND 70.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THEIR PARENT SHORTWAVE...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE REGION DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO BE THE GENERAL RULE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE
LOWER LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DURING THE COURSE OF SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS /OF APPROXIMATELY
20 KNOTS/ FOUND ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER...WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN NORTHEAST
WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
             6              58.3         1991

MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
             6              58.3         1991

MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
             6              58.3         1991

MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO     RANK      MEAN TEMPERATURE   YEAR
            1               64.3         1991
            2               63.8         2012
            3               63.4         1944
            4               62.8         1998
            5               62.3         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            6               62.2         1975

ROCHESTER   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               63.7         1911
            2               63.6         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            3               63.2         2012
            4               63.2         1944

WATERTOWN   RANK     MEAN TEMPERATURE    YEAR
            1               60.5         2012
            2               60.0         1998
            3               59.3         1975
            4               58.8         2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            5               58.8         1960
            6               58.3         1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
             6              58.3         1991

MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 300018
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
818 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0015Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION IS INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN PA...THE END RESULT OF
WHICH IS SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST A LITTLE WHILE LONGER THIS
EVENING...BEFORE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING FOLLOWING SUNSET.
ONCE THIS DISSIPATES...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY REST OF THE NIGHT IN
MOST PLACES...THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
POP UP CONVECTION STILL CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW
YORK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL
APART ALTOGETHER BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THESE COULD PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF/HIGHLY LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR BEFORE
DISSIPATING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO BE THE
GENERAL RULE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING...BEFORE THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS AN
INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ACTIVITY TO FIRST
BLOSSOM INLAND FROM THE LAKES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TURNING
MORE WIDESPREAD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. AS THIS OCCURS...PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD THE
LOWER VFR RANGE WITH TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY CONVECTION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR/MVFR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
CONTINUING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
             6              58.3         1991

MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 292204
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
604 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
 658.3 1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 292204
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
604 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
 658.3 1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 292204
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
604 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE WARMEST
MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO RANK  MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
     164.3 1991
 263.8     2012
 363.4 1944
 462.8 1998
 562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.2 1975


ROCHESTER RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 163.7 1911
 263.6 2015 (THOUGH 5/29)
 363.2 2012
 463.2 1944


WATERTOWN RANK MEAN TEMPERATURE YEAR
 160.5 2012
 260.0 1998
 359.3 1975
 458.8 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 558.8 1960
 658.3 1991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO     RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.53        1877
            2        0.54        1934
            3        0.60        2005
            4        0.83        2015    (THROUGH 5/29)
            5        0.90        2012
            ..
            10       1.11        1926


ROCHESTER   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.24        2007
            ..
            27       1.52        2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
            28       1.55        1876
            29       1.59        1954
            30       1.64        1926


WATERTOWN   RANK    PRECIP       YEAR
            1        0.70        1965
            2        0.87        2005
            3        0.88        1980
            4        0.90        1974
            5        0.99        1966
            6        1.04        2015      (THROUGH 5/29)
            7        1.08        1972
            8        1.09        1951
            9        1.14        1949
            10       1.16        1962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291958
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291958
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291958
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291958
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291958
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION STARTING
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LASTING INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIURNAL HEATING HAS LEAD TO AROUND 1000J/KG MLCAPE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW YORK. A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST PROVIDING A WEAK FORCING MECHANISM. GIVEN THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AND MINOR FORCING WE SHOULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANY CONVECTION WHICH CAN DEVELOP WILL WANE WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POP UP CONVECTION THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A MUGGY AIR MASS IN PLACE.

LASTEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...WHICH WILL START TO IMPINGE ON THE
AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AN UPPER JET
STREAK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER
FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TIED TO THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THIS UPPER JET. THERE WILL BE AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES...2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

THE BULK OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN
BRINGING THE DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK
SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A BIT MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WEAK TO
PERHAPS MODEST DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION.
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES LIFTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE
LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION...TIMING OF WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS STAGE...BUT THINK THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A BETTER RISK FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT...AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS RUNNING SW-NE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEAR STATIONARY...BUT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 500 TO 1000J/KG CAPE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. THE COMBINATION OF DIURNAL STABILIZATION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ALLOW A TRANSITION TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT...SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NW TO SE
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER CONSEQUENCES FROM THE SLOWER MOVING FRONT
WILL LIKELY MEAN COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE THRUWAY DUE TO DYNAMICAL
COOLING FROM ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE WATERTOWN AND BUFFALO AREAS
MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES REACH THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLED JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...A SHORTWAVE TRACKING OUT OF THE
MIDWEST WILL RIDE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WILL FORCE ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION. DETERMINING EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL
WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHO GETS THE MOST PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THE HIGHEST
CHANCES RUN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES INTO THE
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...MONDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN WHERE THE FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

A COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...PUSHING THE MOIST AIRMASS FARTHER
EAST...AND CONFINING THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTH
COUNTRY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW WILL
SUPPLY WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH YET ANOTHER DAY OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S AGAIN ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD HELP PUT AN END TO THE ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
STATE. QPF TOTALS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILD IN ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING IN ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO FINALLY
CLEAR OUT NICELY AFTER A GLOOMY START TO THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO RECOVER THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES 850 MB TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS CELSIUS
ABOVE ZERO. THE WARMING TREND WILL BRING 70S BACK TO THE FORECAST ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER
THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...PERHAPS NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF SMALL CRAFT
FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY
REACH 20 KNOTS.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291726
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291726
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291726
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291726
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291726
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH
FOR WHEN PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR
THREE CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291346
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291346
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291346
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE A VERY WARM
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM WITHIN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS LEVEL PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY...AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL DEVELOP WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE
SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TONIGHT THAT ANY
REAL MUGGINESS TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN DEWPOINTS RISE FURTHER INTO
THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS...WHICH WILL BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
MODEST INSTABILITY LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING
OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PWATS NEARING AN INCH
AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THAT IS NOW
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES NORTHWARD TOWARDS
KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH
THE DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 291138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 291138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH JUST SOME THIN
CIRRUS PASSING BY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE THIS MORNING...WITH
THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR RECORD VALUES...ESPECIALLY FOR TWO OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS. RECORD HIGHS TODAY ARE: BUFFALO 87/1987, ROCHESTER
92/2006, WATERTOWN 87/2012. OF THE THREE ROCHESTER`S VALUE WILL BE
HARDEST TO REACH. THIS HEAT WILL ALSO ADD TO OUR UNUSUALLY WARM MAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR THE WARMEST MAYS...AND DRIEST MAYS
ON RECORD.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015 WILL GO DOWN AS ONE OF THE WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD...AND
POSSIBLY ONE OF THE DRIEST FOR BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. A MOISTURE
LADEN COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TO END THE MONTH...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MAY REMOVE CLIMATE
SITES FROM A TOP 10 DRIEST MAY`S ON RECORD. BELOW ARE THE
WARMEST MAYS ON RECORD.

BUFFALO   RANK MEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

164.31991
263.82012
363.41944
462.81998
562.3 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
 662.21975


ROCHESTERRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

163.71911
263.62015 (THOUGH 5/29)
363.22012
463.21944


WATERTOWNRANKMEAN TEMPERATUREYEAR

160.52012
260.01998
359.31975
458.82015 (THROUGH 5/29)
558.81960
658.31991


MAY HAS ALSO BEEN A DRY MONTH. OUTSIDE OF A FEW LOCALIZED HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS MANY LOCATIONS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
BELOW IS MONTHLY PRECIPITATION FOR THE DRIEST MONTHS ON RECORD FOR
OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALORANKPRECIPYEAR
10.531877
20.541934
30.602005
40.832015(THROUGH 5/29)
50.902012
..
101.111926


ROCHESTERRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.242007
..
 271.52 2015 (THROUGH 5/29)
281.551876
291.591954
301.641926


WATERTOWNRANKPRECIPYEAR
10.701965
20.872005
30.881980
40.901974
50.991966
61.042015  (THROUGH 5/29)
71.081972
81.091951
91.141949
101.161962

AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH
NONE OF OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES MAY HAVE A TOP TEN DRIEST MAY ON
RECORD. HOWEVER ALL THREE SITES MAY CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION MONTHS. BELOW ARE LISTED THE LATEST MONTH FOR WHEN
PRECIPITATION RECORDED WAS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EACH OF OUR THREE
CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

BUFFALO - OCTOBER 2014
ROCHESTER - FEBRUARY 2015
WATERTOWN - AUGUST 2014

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE THIS MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENNG. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AIR WILL SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY WHERE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PRODUCE
A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM
WITHIN THE AFTERNOON HEAT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THOUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY IN A MUCH WEAKER STATE AS IT NEARS THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE GREATER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ALONG A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DISPLAYS THE REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC TOWARDS EASTERN NEW YORK
STATE THIS MORNING...WITH THIS FEATURE ALLOWING FOR CALM...OR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY AS THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR MASS
NORTHWARD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +14 TO +15C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WARMING ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LIGHT SUCH THAT LOCAL LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SHORELINES.

IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASE IN WARMTH THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE COMFORTABLE AND ARE IN THE
LOW 50S...BUT WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE TILL TONIGHT THAT ANY REAL MUGGINESS
TO THE AIR IS FELT WHEN THE DEWPOINT RISE FURTHER INTO THE LOW 60S.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHIFTS
FROM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/WNY THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BLOSSOM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WNY. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE AREAS FARTHEST FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WILL
BE AREAS ACROSS FAR SW NYS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY
LIES. A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENNG. AS THE
INSTABILITY IS TIED TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY...IT WILL LOSS ITS
STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THERE
WILL BE MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PWATS NEARING AN INCH AND A HALF. THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION THAT IS NOW WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER TONIGHT THAN THIS PRIOR
NIGHT WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WHICH WILL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL BE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND
DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY. INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRESH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DELAY THE START OF
SHOWERS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. LAKE SHADOWING WILL BREAK
DOWN SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PWATS FORECAST TO BE 1.5 TO 1.75 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG A
LAKE BREEZE OR SOME OTHER SUBTLE BOUNDARY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
WILL HAPPEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT WHICH PROBABLY LEADS DIFFERENCES IN QPF.
THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE SMALL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT ON SUNDAY. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE PUSHES THE FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE IT STALLS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (00Z NAM/ECMWF) WHICH WOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE LATTER GUIDANCE IS LESS LIKELY TO
VERIFY...IT IS WORTH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY WITH A COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION
COURTESY OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS RUNS SO WILL ONLY UP
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL THERE IS ANOTHER RUN TO SUPPORT THIS.
HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S ON MONDAY AND A FEW DEGREES
WARMER TUESDAY.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST STATES WILL SET UP MID-WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE
AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS WILL RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY
THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290532
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EARLY
MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290532
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EARLY
MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290532
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EARLY
MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290532
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EARLY
MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PACKAGE. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFT ACROSS SW NYS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING AS IT REACHES
NORTHWARD TOWARDS KBUF/KIAG/KROC.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES OVER THE
REGION. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS...ESPECIALLY ON THE RIVERS THROUGH THE
DAY WHERE WINDS MAY REACH 20 KNOTS. BEHIND A COLD FRONT WINDS AND
WAVES WILL INCREASE ON THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290230
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY
BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290230
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY
BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 290230
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY
BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290230
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND
NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY
BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 282322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CUMULUS ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THESE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY
BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 282322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
722 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CUMULUS ACROSS ALLEGANY COUNTY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THESE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY MID EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
MIXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES. CLEAR SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND AROUND 50 IN THE COOLER
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE IN THE DAY. SBCAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN VERY TAME...SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCAL LAKE BREEZES
TO DEVELOP...KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO DRIFT INTO WESTERN NY
BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY EVENING WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. OTHERWISE FOR THE REST
OF THE AREA VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281959
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING JUST A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...PERHAPS A COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE GENERALLY LOW
CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGER LOWER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGER MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER 15
KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281959
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF VERY WARM AIR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING JUST A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...PERHAPS A COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SUGGESTING THE BULK OF THE RETURN MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAKE
BREEZE INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE IN THE DAY. WITH THE GENERALLY LOW
CAPE AND BORDERLINE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KNOTS...WILL
PROBABLY BE HARD PRESSED TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 15C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGER LOWER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGER MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER 15
KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281914
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE SHOT OF VERY WARM
AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGER LOWER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGER MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER 15
KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281914
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A SURGE SHOT OF VERY WARM
AIR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGER LOWER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY
LINGER MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER 15
KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281824
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT
KART/KGTB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AT KZFY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER
15 KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281824
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
224 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WEST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE
WITH CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. PW/S AROUND 1.5
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST
LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL START THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A
BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL
PROBABLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION FOR A TIME ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 850MB FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY
MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
AN ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SUNDAY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH READINGS
PEAKING 65F TO 70F ON MONDAY.  STRONG HIGH PRESSURE /1030MB/ WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
KEEP THE AREA RAIN FREE. H85 TEMPS AT +6C TO +8C MONDAY NIGHT WILL
RISE TO +13 TO +15C BY THURSDAY...SUPPORTING MAX SURFACE TEMPS IN
THE 70S TUESDAY...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY...AND IN THE 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT
KART/KGTB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AT KZFY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER
15 KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT
KART/KGTB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AT KZFY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER
15 KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT
KART/KGTB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AT KZFY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER
15 KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ELSEWHERE. COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ALTHOUGH WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGER CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS AT
KART/KGTB WITH LOW END VFR CIGS AT KZFY. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER
MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. LOCAL LAKE BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BUT UNDER
15 KNOTS.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EXITED THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWING LINGERING CLOUDS EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY WITH CLEARING
ACROSS THE FAR WEST. THE ADVECTION OF A DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON. COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL PASS ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND AIR TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGER BEHIND A COLD FRONT EAST OF ROCHESTER LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. ANY LINGER MVFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z.

WEST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON THE LAKES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOCAL ONSHORE BREEZES DEVELOPING.

A PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW REACHED WNY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA...AND NOW NEAR
THE NIAGARA RIVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS WNY. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND THE RAIN BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW REACHED WNY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA...AND NOW NEAR
THE NIAGARA RIVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS WNY. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND THE RAIN BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW REACHED WNY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA...AND NOW NEAR
THE NIAGARA RIVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS WNY. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND THE RAIN BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
955 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW REACHED WNY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA...AND NOW NEAR
THE NIAGARA RIVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DETAILS. HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
FRIDAY WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
EAST THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90
CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS WNY. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND THE RAIN BUT
THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE
INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 281130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW REACHED WNY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA...AND NOW NEAR
THE NIAGARA RIVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST
THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS WNY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND THE RAIN BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 281130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
730 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT HAS
NOW REACHED WNY...WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
HOURS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA...AND NOW NEAR
THE NIAGARA RIVER OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST
THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS WNY. A FEW LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING BEHIND THE RAIN BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE INCREASE IN DAYTIME MIXING

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE
REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS NEARING WESTERN NEW
YORK THIS MORNING. A FINAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
EARLY...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA OBSERVATIONS
SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH
OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE
CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST
THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT
LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...AT TIME DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PATCHES OF LOW END MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MID LEVEL CLEARING ENSUES. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS SW NYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER AIRPORTS THE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CLEAR THE REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLY LOWER TODAY BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN BRIEFLY WARMER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS NEARING WESTERN NEW
YORK THIS MORNING. A FINAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION.

THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PASS THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
A LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
EARLY...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING.

WHILE DEWPOINTS THIS EARLY MORNING REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S...THERE
WILL BE DRIER AIR PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE PENINSULA OBSERVATIONS
SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND THIS DRIER AIR WILL REACH
OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY. COUPLED WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BE
CLEARING SKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EARLY MORNING WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY
WITH A SUNNY START TO THE DAY. SOME MODEL QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST
THIS IS AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN SPARSE COVERAGE WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
OFF LAKE ERIE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER. THIS IS WARMER THAN MOST GUIDANCE.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT...BUT CONSENSUS QPF IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVE OR TRIGGER FOR
NIGHTTIME CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH
CLOUDS AND A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL DROP A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT CONSENSUS TIMING OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE WHICH
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A
SOAKING RAINFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS...BUT QPF SHOULD VARY BY LOCATION
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF DRY IN MOST LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG A SUBTLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
MIX THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF PRECIPITATION FOR
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. ANY SHADOWING
WILL BREAK DOWN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS. FORMATION AND
LOCATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT IF THIS
DOES DEVELOP THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SIMILAR
THAT DEPICTED BY THE 00Z NAM QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH A MORE
UNIFORM QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF LIKELY. THERE ALSO MAY BE A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MODESTLY STRONG 30KT 850MB
FLOW FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER WARM AND FAIRLY MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ACROSS OH/PA ON
SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THIS
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THIS WILL BRING AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE COLD FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED CLOSE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GEM. HOWEVER FORECAST WILL HEDGE TOWARD
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE (GFS/ECMWF) WHICH DRY THINGS OUT. H85 TEMPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT
LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...AT TIME DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PATCHES OF LOW END MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MID LEVEL CLEARING ENSUES. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS SW NYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER AIRPORTS THE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CLEAR THE REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280547
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
147 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS EARLY
MORNING ARE OVER SW NYS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR THE STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS YET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION AS IT LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF BUFFALO...AND CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
WESTERN NY TO THE MID 60S IN CENTRAL NY.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT
LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...AT TIME DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PATCHES OF LOW END MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MID LEVEL CLEARING ENSUES. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS SW NYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER AIRPORTS THE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CLEAR THE REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 280547
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
147 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS EARLY
MORNING ARE OVER SW NYS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR THE STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS YET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION AS IT LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF BUFFALO...AND CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
WESTERN NY TO THE MID 60S IN CENTRAL NY.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT
LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...AT TIME DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PATCHES OF LOW END MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MID LEVEL CLEARING ENSUES. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS SW NYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER AIRPORTS THE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CLEAR THE REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280547
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
147 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY...THEN MOVE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS THIS EARLY
MORNING ARE OVER SW NYS...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITHIN THIS
ACTIVITY NEAR THE STATE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS YET TO PASS THROUGH
THE REGION AS IT LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF BUFFALO...AND CLOUDINESS
WILL LINGER UNTIL THIS FRONT PASSES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
WESTERN NY TO THE MID 60S IN CENTRAL NY.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT
LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES...AND CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...AT TIME DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PATCHES OF LOW END MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MID LEVEL CLEARING ENSUES. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN ACROSS SW NYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER AIRPORTS THE GREATEST THROUGH ABOUT 12Z.

FOR TODAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND CLEAR THE REGION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS. WEST WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 280234
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING AREA OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO CENTRAL NY. WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERE IS VERY LITTLE THUNDER
LEFT...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER NIL. THIS WEAKENING AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH CENTRAL NY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHWEST PA WILL MOVE ENE AND BRUSH THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE PERSISTENT RAIN. THIS TOO WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA MOVES EAST.

FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER...THE
MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS NOW OVER. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES HOWEVER...SO ANOTHER PASSING SHOWER LATER
TONIGHT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE NORTH COUNTRY HAS MISSED ALL OF THE
ACTIVITY SO FAR. CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION...WHILE AREAS FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE
SAINT LAWRENCE WILL REMAIN DRY MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH JUST A SMALL
CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
WESTERN NY TO THE MID 60S IN CENTRAL NY.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
EXIT EAST OF OUR REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF MORE PERSISTENT RAIN AND A
FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PA WILL CROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MAINLY VFR IN MOST OF
THE RAIN WITH ONLY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS BRINGING VSBY DOWN BRIEFLY TO
MVFR OR IFR.

LATE TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MOISTURE
BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION AND UPSLOPES
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON THURSDAY ANY EARLY SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END. THIS
WILL LEAVE CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN SCATTERING OUT BY MID MORNING. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 272357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
757 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SURFACE BASED
FORCING TO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS CROSSING WESTERN NY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND JUST AHEAD
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...AND WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SBCAPE IS AROUND 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS...BOTH VERY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SO FAR THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS LIMITED
INTENSITY. NEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY ARE NEAR
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK IN THE NEAR TERM. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL
END ANY SEVERE RISK.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT ALONG A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH 06Z WITH
ONLY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

LATE TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MOISTURE
BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION AND UPSLOPES
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON THURSDAY ANY EARLY SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END. THIS
WILL LEAVE CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN SCATTERING OUT BY MID MORNING. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 272357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
757 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE SOME SURFACE BASED
FORCING TO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN IN PLACE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS CROSSING WESTERN NY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND JUST AHEAD
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE ACTUAL SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...AND WILL CROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SBCAPE IS AROUND 1000J/KG WITH 0-6KM
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS...BOTH VERY MARGINAL TO SUPPORT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...SO FAR THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS LIMITED
INTENSITY. NEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY ARE NEAR
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW...AND WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
RISK IN THE NEAR TERM. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL
END ANY SEVERE RISK.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT ALONG A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH 06Z WITH
ONLY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

LATE TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO
IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MOISTURE
BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION AND UPSLOPES
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON THURSDAY ANY EARLY SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END. THIS
WILL LEAVE CLEARING SKIES WITH ANY MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN SCATTERING OUT BY MID MORNING. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING.
THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 271917
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
317 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE
SOME SURFACE BASED FORCING TO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

SEVERAL FINER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO IGNITE A LINE OF CONVECTION AROUND 00Z INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AFTER 02Z
PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION. THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION...FEEL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED DESPITE A WATCH BOX UPSTREAM. SHEAR PROFILES AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BOTH WEAK AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY BE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY INCLUDING KIAG/KBUF WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. REMAINING INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LIFT FROM A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS. SOME
RESTRICTION IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR AREA WHICH
RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND INLAND THROUGH EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE THE COOLER AND
STABLE LAKE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271917
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
317 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY...THEN MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE LOW OVER ONTARIO PULLS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL FINALLY PROVIDE
SOME SURFACE BASED FORCING TO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THATS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

SEVERAL FINER RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
WILL SLIDE THROUGH A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO IGNITE A LINE OF CONVECTION AROUND 00Z INTO
WESTERN NEW YORK BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AFTER 02Z
PRODUCING ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION. THOUGH NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION...FEEL THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER
LIMITED DESPITE A WATCH BOX UPSTREAM. SHEAR PROFILES AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BOTH WEAK AND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY BE WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS
EVENING.

ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROVIDE A FAIR WEATHER DAY. HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S...BUT LIKELY REMAINING THE THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WNY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY INCLUDING KIAG/KBUF WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. REMAINING INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
LIFT FROM A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS. SOME
RESTRICTION IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR AREA WHICH
RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS
WILL BE FOUND INLAND THROUGH EARLY EVENING...INCLUDING THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE THE COOLER AND
STABLE LAKE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THERE WILL BE A VEERING TO THE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND WAVES.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN/RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 271741
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMIDITY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD...WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK WILL WAIT UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WESTERN NEW YORK RESIDING IN BETWEEN TWO OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
AREAS. ONE JUST OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE
OTHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE TWO AREAS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A HUMID UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL LIFT OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE REGION.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WNY...IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WNY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL BE LOSING SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...
THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME STILL MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AREA OF THE CONVECTION AS
IT REACHES CNY WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP
MUCH...BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL. THIS FRONT WILL ERASE THE HIGH PWATS
OVER OUR REGION...AND LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND STILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH EMBEDDED HIGH END MVFR FOUND ACROSS WNY
LATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A
LINE FROM KELZ-KFZY-KART WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOM A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO SUNSHINE...WITH A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS
IT REACHES CNY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS...AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS WILL BE FOUND INLAND...AND WILL INCLUDE THE NIAGARA RIVER
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COOLER
AND STABLE LAKE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THESE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER
WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ON AREA
LAKES AND RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 271741
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMIDITY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD...WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK WILL WAIT UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WESTERN NEW YORK RESIDING IN BETWEEN TWO OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
AREAS. ONE JUST OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE
OTHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE TWO AREAS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A HUMID UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL LIFT OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE REGION.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WNY...IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WNY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL BE LOSING SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...
THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME STILL MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AREA OF THE CONVECTION AS
IT REACHES CNY WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP
MUCH...BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL. THIS FRONT WILL ERASE THE HIGH PWATS
OVER OUR REGION...AND LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND STILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH EMBEDDED HIGH END MVFR FOUND ACROSS WNY
LATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A
LINE FROM KELZ-KFZY-KART WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOM A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO SUNSHINE...WITH A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS
IT REACHES CNY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS...AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS WILL BE FOUND INLAND...AND WILL INCLUDE THE NIAGARA RIVER
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COOLER
AND STABLE LAKE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THESE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER
WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ON AREA
LAKES AND RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271741
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMIDITY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY
EASTWARD...WHILE WESTERN NEW YORK WILL WAIT UNTIL A WEAK COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE
TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL
BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WESTERN NEW YORK RESIDING IN BETWEEN TWO OF THE BEST INSTABILITY
AREAS. ONE JUST OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND THE
OTHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE TWO AREAS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
CONVECTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NEW YORK BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE A HUMID UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL LIFT OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE REGION.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WNY...IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WNY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL BE LOSING SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...
THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME STILL MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AREA OF THE CONVECTION AS
IT REACHES CNY WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP
MUCH...BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL. THIS FRONT WILL ERASE THE HIGH PWATS
OVER OUR REGION...AND LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND STILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH EMBEDDED HIGH END MVFR FOUND ACROSS WNY
LATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A
LINE FROM KELZ-KFZY-KART WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOM A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO SUNSHINE...WITH A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS
IT REACHES CNY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS...AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS WILL BE FOUND INLAND...AND WILL INCLUDE THE NIAGARA RIVER
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE THE COOLER
AND STABLE LAKE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THESE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER
WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ON AREA
LAKES AND RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 271500
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMIDITY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL WAIT UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING
THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM WELLSVILLE TO WATERTOWN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHARP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS NEARING THE UP OF MICHIGAN...WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST.

TODAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE A HUMID LATE MAY DAY AS PWATS REMAIN 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES RISING
TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...AND NEARING 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD TODAY.  WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR MORE
HEAVY RAIN AS A UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
DO REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS. OTHER THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS OF LI`S OF -2
TO -4C ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS...AND K INDEX VALUES NEARING 37C
WILL WARRANT WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FEEL THE TWO BIGGEST THREATS WILL COME EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE THREATS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL INSERT THIS
ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE GRIDS. THE TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF
SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HAIL MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT
THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS TO BE LARGELY EAST OF OUR REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TO THE WEST...AS SUNSHINE INCREASES THE MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH OR SO. ON THE EDGE OF THE
LAKE BREEZES AFTERNOON INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...FIRST ACROSS SW NYS...THEN EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A NEARING COLD
FRONT WILL BE FOUND.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A HUMID UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL LIFT OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE REGION.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WNY...IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WNY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL BE LOSING SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...
THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME STILL MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AREA OF THE CONVECTION AS
IT REACHES CNY WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP
MUCH...BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL. THIS FRONT WILL ERASE THE HIGH PWATS
OVER OUR REGION...AND LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND STILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH EMBEDDED HIGH END MVFR FOUND ACROSS
WNY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A
LINE FROM KELZ-KFZY-KART WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOM A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO SUNSHINE...WITH A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS
IT REACHES CNY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS...AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND INLAND...AND WILL INCLUDE THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A SCA ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THESE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER
WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ON AREA
LAKES AND RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA




000
FXUS61 KBUF 271500
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMIDITY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL WAIT UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING
THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM WELLSVILLE TO WATERTOWN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHARP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS NEARING THE UP OF MICHIGAN...WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST.

TODAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE A HUMID LATE MAY DAY AS PWATS REMAIN 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES RISING
TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...AND NEARING 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD TODAY.  WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR MORE
HEAVY RAIN AS A UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
DO REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS. OTHER THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS OF LI`S OF -2
TO -4C ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS...AND K INDEX VALUES NEARING 37C
WILL WARRANT WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FEEL THE TWO BIGGEST THREATS WILL COME EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE THREATS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL INSERT THIS
ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE GRIDS. THE TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF
SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HAIL MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT
THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS TO BE LARGELY EAST OF OUR REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TO THE WEST...AS SUNSHINE INCREASES THE MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH OR SO. ON THE EDGE OF THE
LAKE BREEZES AFTERNOON INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...FIRST ACROSS SW NYS...THEN EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A NEARING COLD
FRONT WILL BE FOUND.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A HUMID UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL LIFT OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE REGION.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WNY...IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WNY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL BE LOSING SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...
THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME STILL MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AREA OF THE CONVECTION AS
IT REACHES CNY WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP
MUCH...BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL. THIS FRONT WILL ERASE THE HIGH PWATS
OVER OUR REGION...AND LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND STILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH EMBEDDED HIGH END MVFR FOUND ACROSS
WNY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A
LINE FROM KELZ-KFZY-KART WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOM A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO SUNSHINE...WITH A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS
IT REACHES CNY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS...AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND INLAND...AND WILL INCLUDE THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A SCA ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THESE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER
WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ON AREA
LAKES AND RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 271500
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMIDITY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...WHILE
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL WAIT UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
EVENING FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOLLOWING
THIS COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...BUT
MORE NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF A LINE FROM WELLSVILLE TO WATERTOWN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHARP MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS NEARING THE UP OF MICHIGAN...WITH A TRAILING WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST.

TODAY WILL AGAIN FEATURE A HUMID LATE MAY DAY AS PWATS REMAIN 1.00
TO 1.50 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SBCAPE VALUES RISING
TO WELL OVER 1000 J/KG...AND NEARING 1500-2000 J/KG OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN NUMBER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND POINTS EASTWARD TODAY.  WIND PROFILES MAY FAVOR MORE
HEAVY RAIN AS A UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
TRAINING OF CELLS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
DO REACH 30 TO 35 KNOTS. OTHER THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS OF LI`S OF -2
TO -4C ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS...AND K INDEX VALUES NEARING 37C
WILL WARRANT WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

FEEL THE TWO BIGGEST THREATS WILL COME EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE THREATS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. WILL INSERT THIS
ENHANCED WORDING INTO THE GRIDS. THE TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES OF
SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF HAIL MARGINAL AT BEST. AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD EXPECT
THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS TO BE LARGELY EAST OF OUR REGION BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TO THE WEST...AS SUNSHINE INCREASES THE MIXING LEVEL HEIGHTS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH OR SO. ON THE EDGE OF THE
LAKE BREEZES AFTERNOON INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...FIRST ACROSS SW NYS...THEN EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER WHERE ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A NEARING COLD
FRONT WILL BE FOUND.

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A HUMID UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

FOR TONIGHT ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADDITIONAL LIFT OF A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKE REGION.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS WNY...IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT RECEIVE DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WNY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WE WILL BE LOSING SOME DAYTIME INSTABILITY...
THOUGH THE EARLY EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO
TAP INTO SOME STILL MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE ERIE AND INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. EXPECT SOME
WEAKENING AND DIMINISHMENT IN COVERAGE AREA OF THE CONVECTION AS
IT REACHES CNY WHERE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION.

AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP
MUCH...BUT THE DEWPOINTS WILL. THIS FRONT WILL ERASE THE HIGH PWATS
OVER OUR REGION...AND LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND STILL WARM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN LATER TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL OFFER TWO FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THIS
PERIOD....BUT THE BULK OF THE TIME WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG
EAST COAST RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MAINLY DRY...UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER. THE GOOD NEWS FOR AGRICULTURALISTS IS THAT THE STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY END WITH A `WET` FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
THIS TIME FRAME COMES TO A CLOSE.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK WITH MID LEVEL DRYING ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY BY MIDDAY THOUGH...AND THIS SHOULD DELAY
THE ONSET OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THAT AREA BY SOME 3 TO 6 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE VCNTY OF JAMES BAY WILL
NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY....WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRYING LEADING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. IT WILL BE COOLER AND NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID
AS WELL...AS DEWPOINTS THAT HAD BEEN IN THE 60S WILL DROP BACK
THROUGH THE 50S. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE MOONLIT SKIES AS A BURGEONING H5 RIDGE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE A COMFORTABLE
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY SETTLING INTO THE 50S. SITES IN
THE COOLER SRN TIER VALLEYS AND IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
COULD CONCEIVABLY EXPERIENCE MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...AS A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE
DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW FOUND BETWEEN THE ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE SFC
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PUMP H85
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS...WHICH WILL EASILY SUPPORT
AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S FOR ALL BUT THE LAKE SHORES
AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY FLY ION THE OINTMENT FOR FRIDAY WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE VCNTY
OF A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN TIER. FROM THIS VANTAGE
POINT THOUGH...THE AIRMASS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STILL BE DRY ENOUGH
TO KEEP THIS THREAT FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.

AFTER A VERY MILD AND UNEVENTFUL FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...IT WILL LIKELY
TURN QUITE UNSETTLED FOR SATURDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM GEORGIAN BAY AND LOWER MICHIGAN TO ABOUT CHICAGO
AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHEAST TO LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO BY EVENING. A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG 130KT H25 JET OVER
QUEBEC REINFORCING DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNPOURS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH THE FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ANABATIC
NATURE OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP SHOWERS IN
PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN ANOTHER HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN
COULD FALL. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IN QUITE SOME TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND THIS WILL SHOVE A MOISTURE RICH COLD FRONT
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END AS A
RESULT...BUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE CLOSER TO THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER.

H85 TEMPS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)...SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ITS CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION WILL OPEN
THE DOOR FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE THUS FORECAST TO
CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS...WITH EMBEDDED HIGH END MVFR FOUND ACROSS
WNY LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS ARE FOUND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A
LINE FROM KELZ-KFZY-KART WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING POSSIBLY BLOSSOM A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SOME RETURN TO SUNSHINE...WITH A GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZE OVER FAR WNY.

THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL NEAR THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT
FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO WNY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CARRY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAKENING AS
IT REACHES CNY DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHOWERS...AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BRING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND INLAND...AND WILL INCLUDE THE
NIAGARA RIVER AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE
WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS. ELSEWHERE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A SCA ON LAKE ERIE WHERE WINDS MAY REMAIN AROUND 15
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT VEERING TO THESE WINDS TO WESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS VERY LITTLE COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH INCREASE IN EITHER
WINDS OR WAVE HEIGHT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.

EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF NON SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATER BODIES
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. LATER SATURDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY
NECESSITATING THE HOISTING OF ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT FLAGS ON AREA
LAKES AND RIVERS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA




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