000
FXUS61 KBUF 191750
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUMP WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND ACTS AS THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A FEW WEAK RETURNS FROM THE TUG
HILL NORTH TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER AS OF 1730Z. ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AS WEAK ASCENT FROM
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION DRY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LINGER. FARTHER WEST...SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER. DIURNAL CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING
NICELY NOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND THEY HAVE BECOME
FAIRLY CONGESTED BRINGING A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AS THE BEST SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATER ON IN THE NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION...HOWEVER EXPECT
ANY SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN BOTH ITS SLOW APPROACH AND THE UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THAT.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN
+10C AND +13C TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE CWA TODAY...SAVE FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER 70S...AND THE SECOND
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM ROCHESTER OVER
TO THE NIAGARA RIVER WHERE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 60S. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT...WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GUARANTEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THE FLIP
SIDE TO THIS COIN IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FAIRLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS WELL. THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHALLENGE THOUGH...AS MANY OF THESE WILL EITHER BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OR TIED TO IMPULSES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THE DETAILS...
WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES
BAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
15C WILL ENCOURAGE NR SFC TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S (MID 80S
IN SOME VALLEYS). THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO CAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
SRN TIER.
KEEPING THIS IN MIND...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF HEATING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS. A LITTLE HIGHER UP...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE
FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE NAM BUFKIT PROFILES ARE
SUGGESTING A WEAK CAP ARND 10K FT. WHILE THESE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG CAN BE REALIZED
THEN THIS SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
UNDERLYING AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH 10K FT...AND WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE VCNTY OF 1.25"...
THAT SHOULD HEIGHTEN THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE SUMMERY
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
CEASE WITH THE REMOVAL OF DIURNAL HEATING...IMPULSES DROPPING DOWN
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE (ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT) WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE. IT MAY ALSO BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PENDING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERN TIER STANDS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR EXPERIENCING A SUMMERY NIGHT.
THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THIS PCPN WILL BE LOW AS THE MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WE WILL LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
WHICH HANGS THE FRONT UP OVER OUR AREA. WILL THUS KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN PLAY SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO FOR TUES/TUES NIGHT WHILE USING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
KNOCK DOWN WHATS LEFT OF ANY H5 RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER OUR REGION. THE
RESULT WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL USE HIGH CHC
POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE VARIOUS
PACKAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND WILL
FURTHER COOL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE AS GREAT THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL END BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. ELSEWHERE SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT MOST OF THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS SHOULD ERODE AWAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR OR EVEN IFR STRATUS MAY RE-DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA
AND SNEAK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OVERNIGHT ON
PERSISTENT SSE FLOW. THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...WITH VSBY DROPPING TO AT LEAST MVFR
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH IFR MORE PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS.
ON MONDAY ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING...LEAVING MAINLY VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MVFR
CIGS STILL POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE MORNING AS A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BRUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN NY. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE
STABLE LAKE SHADOWS. EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN MOST
AREAS...AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN BEHIND
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND IN STABLE AIR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. AFTER THAT...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALBEIT WITH AN INCREASING RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR
000
FXUS61 KBUF 191459
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1059 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUMP WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND ACTS AS THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR TREND SHOWS THE LIGHT SHOWER AND SPRINKLES OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE
THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER KBUF/KIAG/KJHW AND NOW
INTO KROC. ELSEWHERE...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST VARYING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT COOLER
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY.
THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AS THE BEST SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATER ON IN THE NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION...HOWEVER EXPECT
ANY SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN BOTH ITS SLOW APPROACH AND THE UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THAT.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN
+10C AND +13C TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE CWA TODAY...SAVE FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER 70S...AND THE SECOND
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM ROCHESTER OVER
TO THE NIAGARA RIVER WHERE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 60S. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT...WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GUARANTEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THE FLIP
SIDE TO THIS COIN IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FAIRLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS WELL. THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHALLENGE THOUGH...AS MANY OF THESE WILL EITHER BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OR TIED TO IMPULSES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THE DETAILS...
WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES
BAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
15C WILL ENCOURAGE NR SFC TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S (MID 80S
IN SOME VALLEYS). THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO CAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
SRN TIER.
KEEPING THIS IN MIND...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF HEATING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS. A LITTLE HIGHER UP...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE
FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE NAM BUFKIT PROFILES ARE
SUGGESTING A WEAK CAP ARND 10K FT. WHILE THESE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG CAN BE REALIZED
THEN THIS SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
UNDERLYING AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH 10K FT...AND WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE VCNTY OF 1.25"...
THAT SHOULD HEIGHTEN THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE SUMMERY
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
CEASE WITH THE REMOVAL OF DIURNAL HEATING...IMPULSES DROPPING DOWN
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE (ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT) WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE. IT MAY ALSO BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PENDING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERN TIER STANDS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR EXPERIENCING A SUMMERY NIGHT.
THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THIS PCPN WILL BE LOW AS THE MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WE WILL LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
WHICH HANGS THE FRONT UP OVER OUR AREA. WILL THUS KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN PLAY SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO FOR TUES/TUES NIGHT WHILE USING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
KNOCK DOWN WHATS LEFT OF ANY H5 RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER OUR REGION. THE
RESULT WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL USE HIGH CHC
POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE VARIOUS
PACKAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND WILL
FURTHER COOL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE AS GREAT THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 14Z...A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH
MOST AREAS JUST SEEING VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING HELPS TO ERODE THIS
LATER ON THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP CIGS/VSBYS VFR. FARTHER WEST...EXPECT DRY VFR WEATHER TO
PREVAIL UNDER CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH LATE AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE BEGINS SAGGING SOUTHWARD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. AFTER THAT...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALBEIT WITH AN INCREASING RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...AR/HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
000
FXUS61 KBUF 191113
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
713 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUMP WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND ACTS AS THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11Z...A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH ITS SOUTHEASTERN EDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR KSYR.
ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH MOST AREAS JUST
SEEING VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN AREA
OF LOWER STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING
HELPS TO ERODE THIS LATER ON THIS MORNING.
AFTER THAT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK TO MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
BEST COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLAY...WITH ENOUGH OF EACH PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME MORE SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. HAVE THUS CONTINUED WITH SOME LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THIS REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DRY PER THE SEEMINGLY MORE REALISTIC GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AS THE BEST SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATER ON IN THE NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION...HOWEVER EXPECT
ANY SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN BOTH ITS SLOW APPROACH AND THE UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THAT.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN
+10C AND +13C TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE CWA TODAY...SAVE FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER 70S...AND THE SECOND
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM ROCHESTER OVER
TO THE NIAGARA RIVER WHERE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 60S. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT...WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GUARANTEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THE FLIP
SIDE TO THIS COIN IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FAIRLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS WELL. THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHALLENGE THOUGH...AS MANY OF THESE WILL EITHER BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OR TIED TO IMPULSES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THE DETAILS...
WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES
BAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
15C WILL ENCOURAGE NR SFC TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S (MID 80S
IN SOME VALLEYS). THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO CAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
SRN TIER.
KEEPING THIS IN MIND...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF HEATING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS. A LITTLE HIGHER UP...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE
FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE NAM BUFKIT PROFILES ARE
SUGGESTING A WEAK CAP ARND 10K FT. WHILE THESE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG CAN BE REALIZED
THEN THIS SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
UNDERLYING AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH 10K FT...AND WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE VCNTY OF 1.25"...
THAT SHOULD HEIGHTEN THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE SUMMERY
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
CEASE WITH THE REMOVAL OF DIURNAL HEATING...IMPULSES DROPPING DOWN
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE (ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT) WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE. IT MAY ALSO BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PENDING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERN TIER STANDS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR EXPERIENCING A SUMMERY NIGHT.
THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THIS PCPN WILL BE LOW AS THE MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WE WILL LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
WHICH HANGS THE FRONT UP OVER OUR AREA. WILL THUS KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN PLAY SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO FOR TUES/TUES NIGHT WHILE USING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
KNOCK DOWN WHATS LEFT OF ANY H5 RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER OUR REGION. THE
RESULT WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL USE HIGH CHC
POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE VARIOUS
PACKAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND WILL
FURTHER COOL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE AS GREAT THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 11Z...A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH ITS SOUTHEASTERN EDGE EXTENDING TO NEAR KSYR. ALL OF
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION THROUGH THAT TIME...WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...WHERE AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING HELPS TO ERODE THIS LATER ON THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP CIGS/VSBYS VFR. FARTHER WEST...EXPECT DRY VFR WEATHER TO
PREVAIL UNDER CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH LATE AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE BEGINS SAGGING SOUTHWARD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. AFTER THAT...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALBEIT WITH AN INCREASING RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
000
FXUS61 KBUF 190802
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WHILE CONTINUING TO PUMP WARMER AIR
INTO THE AREA. ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AND ACTS AS THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0745Z...A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...AND IS NOW SITUATED FROM JUST EAST OF
TORONTO...SOUTHEAST TO ROCHESTER AND THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. THIS
BAND OF SPRINKLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH MOST AREAS JUST
SEEING VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN AREA
OF LOWER STRATUS HAS EDGED NORTH INTO AREAS ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER
AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WHILE THIS SHOULD NOT GET TOO MUCH
FURTHER NORTH DUE TO DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
ALLEGANY PLATEAU...WHERE THE STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED IT WILL LIKELY
PERSIST UNTIL DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING HELPS TO ERODE THIS LATER ON
THIS MORNING.
AFTER THAT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK
TO MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THE ONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST COMBINATION OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLAY...WITH ENOUGH OF EACH PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS. HAVE THUS CONTINUED WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DRY PER THE
SEEMINGLY MORE REALISTIC GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.
THIS EVENING...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
AS THE BEST SWATH OF WARM ADVECTION/ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A CORRESPONDING
DECREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LATER ON IN THE NIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHWARD TOWARD OUR REGION...HOWEVER EXPECT
ANY SHOWER CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE RANGE GIVEN BOTH ITS SLOW APPROACH AND THE UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THAT.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN
+10C AND +13C TODAY...WITH THE WARMEST AIR FOUND ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. COUPLED WITH A SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO BOOST HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE CWA TODAY...SAVE FOR TWO AREAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE LOWER 70S...AND THE SECOND
WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM ROCHESTER OVER
TO THE NIAGARA RIVER WHERE AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO THE 60S. WITH A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S...RATHER MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT...WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GUARANTEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT THE FLIP
SIDE TO THIS COIN IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FAIRLY UNSETTLED
WEATHER AS WELL. THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A CHALLENGE THOUGH...AS MANY OF THESE WILL EITHER BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN OR TIED TO IMPULSES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
THE DETAILS...
WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES
BAY WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A SUMMER LIKE AIRMASS AS DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S WHILE H85 TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF
15C WILL ENCOURAGE NR SFC TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S (MID 80S
IN SOME VALLEYS). THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO CAPES OF 1000-2000
J/KG...WITH THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR EXPECTED OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
SRN TIER.
KEEPING THIS IN MIND...THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. A FAIR AMOUNT OF HEATING THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS. A LITTLE HIGHER UP...AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH THE
FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE NAM BUFKIT PROFILES ARE
SUGGESTING A WEAK CAP ARND 10K FT. WHILE THESE ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG CAN BE REALIZED
THEN THIS SHOULD NOT POSE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM FOR SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLOSER LOOK AT THE
UNDERLYING AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WILL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH 10K FT...AND WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE VCNTY OF 1.25"...
THAT SHOULD HEIGHTEN THE CHANCE FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE SUMMERY
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY
CEASE WITH THE REMOVAL OF DIURNAL HEATING...IMPULSES DROPPING DOWN
THE FRONT SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE (ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT) WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN PLACE. IT MAY ALSO BE UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PENDING THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SOUTHERN TIER STANDS THE HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR EXPERIENCING A SUMMERY NIGHT.
THE PRESENCE OF THE NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VCNTY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THIS PCPN WILL BE LOW AS THE MAINSTREAM GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WE WILL LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION...
WHICH HANGS THE FRONT UP OVER OUR AREA. WILL THUS KEEP LIKELY POPS
IN PLAY SOUTH OF LK ONTARIO FOR TUES/TUES NIGHT WHILE USING CHC POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WAS FOUND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WILL FINALLY OPEN UP AND BECOME ABSORBED
WITHIN A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL
KNOCK DOWN WHATS LEFT OF ANY H5 RIDGING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND ALLOW BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER OUR REGION. THE
RESULT WILL BE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL USE HIGH CHC
POPS FOR NOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE VARIOUS
PACKAGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND WILL
FURTHER COOL AS WE HEAD INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF PCPN...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PASS TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE AS GREAT THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 08Z...A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO LIFT
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MID MORNING...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE
NO IMPACT ON AVIATION INTERESTS WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL COME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS OVER PA HAVE SPREAD
ACROSS THE NY/PA BORDER AND WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM KJHW EAST TO
KELZ THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING BY
MID-LATE MORNING WITH RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
KEEP CIGS/VSBYS VFR. FARTHER WEST...EXPECT DRY VFR WEATHER TO
PREVAIL UNDER CONTINUED MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN FROM THE NORTH LATE AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ONTARIO
PROVINCE BEGINS SAGGING SOUTHWARD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT TO MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. AFTER THAT...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ALBEIT WITH AN INCREASING RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES UP
RESIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
000
FXUS61 KBUF 190541
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A NARROW
BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES THAT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA...AND IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO THE ROCHESTER
AREA/WESTERN FINGER LAKES. BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OVERNIGHT... AND
EVENTUALLY WILL REACH THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK IF IT
CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MILD AND DRY REST
OF THE NIGHT UNDER VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY... TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH COUNTRY.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +12C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE
BREEZES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION LIKELY BEING THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM BRADDOCK BAY TO THE NIAGARA RIVER. HERE...
ENE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VARYING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS MID
LEVEL CLOUD AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. THE LACK OF APPARENT
FORCING OR STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MOISTURE POOLING TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER CHANCES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED.
HERE WE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO...BUT
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY FOLLOWING THE DRIER NAM
AND CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET...AND MILD WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL MAINTAIN LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN NYS AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ON MONDAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE DEW POINTS AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY A BIT OF A HUMID
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN STORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY/CAPE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE AREA THERE WILL
JUST BE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WEAK
IMPULSES OF ENERGY CREST THE RIDGE TOP. THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH A CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW YORK IN PROXIMITY TO A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE STATES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER 500 J/KG WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT HERE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THIS TIME PERIOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
EARLY...WITH POSSIBLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES BRING A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN.
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME INSTABILITY OF 1000+ J/KG ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE STATE LINE...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT
THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT PHASE THESE TWO TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND CONTINUES A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CONTINUITY AND CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0530Z...A NARROW BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO LIFT
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE NO IMPACT
ON AVIATION INTERESTS...WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER AND VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE CONTINUING TO STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL COME
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE SOME LOWER
MVFR CIGS OVER PA MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NY/PA BORDER
AND AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM KJHW EASTWARD TO KELZ OVERNIGHT...
BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH RENEWED
DAYTIME HEATING.
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS/VSBYS VFR. FARTHER WEST...EXPECT DRY VFR
WEATHER TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNDER MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST OVER TIME.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WAVE
ACTION. TYPICAL OF SPRING...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBUF 190237
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1037 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KBUF RADAR IS SHOWING MAINLY VIRGA STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN
END OF LAKE ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LIFT AND MOISTURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET STREAM ALOFT. DUE TO DRY LOWER LEVELS AS
OBSERVED BY 00Z KBUF RAOB....MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
NOT MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. HOWEVER...A RECENT OBSERVATION OUT OF
TORONTO REPORTED VERY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH
AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
THE GFS REMAINS A WET OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO SHOWER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AS IT LIFTS A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY. IT APPEARS THE GFS IS MUCH TO AGGRESSIVE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE. THE NAM IS ALSO LIKELY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND
GENERATES SOME SPOTTY QPF TONIGHT. WITH NO APPARENT FORCING
MECHANISM AND RELATIVELY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL OPT TO GO WITH
THE MUCH DRIER CANADIAN GEM SOLUTION AND KEEP A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF MID CLOUD ACROSS WESTERN NY. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW PUSHES CLOUDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHWARD.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +12C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE
BREEZES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION LIKELY BEING THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM BRADDOCK BAY TO THE NIAGARA RIVER. HERE...
ENE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VARYING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS MID
LEVEL CLOUD AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. THE LACK OF APPARENT
FORCING OR STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MOISTURE POOLING TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER CHANCES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED.
HERE WE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO...BUT
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY FOLLOWING THE DRIER NAM
AND CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET...AND MILD WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL MAINTAIN LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN NYS AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ON MONDAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE DEW POINTS AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY A BIT OF A HUMID
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN STORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY/CAPE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE AREA THERE WILL
JUST BE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WEAK
IMPULSES OF ENERGY CREST THE RIDGE TOP. THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH A CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW YORK IN PROXIMITY TO A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE STATES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER 500 J/KG WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT HERE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THIS TIME PERIOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
EARLY...WITH POSSIBLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES BRING A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN.
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME INSTABILITY OF 1000+ J/KG ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE STATE LINE...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT
THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT PHASE THESE TWO TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND CONTINUES A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CONTINUITY AND CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TONIGHT. KBUF RADAR
SHOWING SOME VIRGA/ISOLATED SPRINKLE STREAMING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT THIS WILL NOT IMPACT TAFS.
EVENTUALLY SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION ON SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO BE VFR WITHIN THIS AREA AS
WELL. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION MAY
TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
SUNDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS/VSBY
MAINLY VFR. FARTHER WEST EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WAVE
ACTION. TYPICAL OF SPRING...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBUF 182341
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. WHILE
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THEY WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOME CLOUD COVER TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP
COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE GFS REMAINS A WET OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO SHOWER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AS IT LIFTS A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY. IT APPEARS THE GFS IS MUCH TO AGGRESSIVE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE. THE NAM IS ALSO LIKELY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND
GENERATES SOME SPOTTY QPF TONIGHT. WITH NO APPARENT FORCING
MECHANISM AND RELATIVELY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL OPT TO GO WITH
THE MUCH DRIER CANADIAN GEM SOLUTION AND KEEP A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF MID CLOUD ACROSS WESTERN NY. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW PUSHES CLOUDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHWARD.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +12C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE
BREEZES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION LIKELY BEING THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM BRADDOCK BAY TO THE NIAGARA RIVER. HERE...
ENE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VARYING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS MID
LEVEL CLOUD AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. THE LACK OF APPARENT
FORCING OR STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MOISTURE POOLING TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER CHANCES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED.
HERE WE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO...BUT
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY FOLLOWING THE DRIER NAM
AND CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET...AND MILD WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL MAINTAIN LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN NYS AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ON MONDAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE DEW POINTS AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY A BIT OF A HUMID
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN STORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY/CAPE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE AREA THERE WILL
JUST BE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WEAK
IMPULSES OF ENERGY CREST THE RIDGE TOP. THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH A CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW YORK IN PROXIMITY TO A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE STATES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER 500 J/KG WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT HERE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THIS TIME PERIOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
EARLY...WITH POSSIBLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES BRING A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN.
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME INSTABILITY OF 1000+ J/KG ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE STATE LINE...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT
THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT PHASE THESE TWO TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND CONTINUES A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CONTINUITY AND CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY
SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON
SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO BE VFR WITHIN THIS AREA AS WELL. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION MAY TOUCH OFF
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...BUT THESE
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS/VSBY MAINLY VFR. FARTHER
WEST EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WAVE
ACTION. TYPICAL OF SPRING...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBUF 181954
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL ALLOW WARMER AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OUT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A BAND OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD IS HANGING TOUGH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUDS FROM NEAR LONG POINT
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL RESPOND AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...THEY WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO
COMBINE WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOME CLOUD COVER TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES UP COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE GFS REMAINS A WET OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO SHOWER POTENTIAL
TONIGHT...AS IT LIFTS A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY. IT APPEARS THE GFS IS MUCH TO AGGRESSIVE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND CONVERGENCE. THE NAM IS ALSO LIKELY TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN POOLING MOISTURE ALONG LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND
GENERATES SOME SPOTTY QPF TONIGHT. WITH NO APPARENT FORCING
MECHANISM AND RELATIVELY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW...WILL OPT TO GO WITH
THE MUCH DRIER CANADIAN GEM SOLUTION AND KEEP A DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS
OF MID CLOUD ACROSS WESTERN NY. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE RETURN FLOW PUSHES CLOUDS OVER PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHWARD.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST 850MB
TEMPS TO AROUND +12C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH AN ADDED BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE
BREEZES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION LIKELY BEING THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FROM BRADDOCK BAY TO THE NIAGARA RIVER. HERE...
ENE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORE.
EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF VARYING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS MID
LEVEL CLOUD AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT AGAIN THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. THE LACK OF APPARENT
FORCING OR STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVENT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE OR MOISTURE POOLING TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWER CHANCES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS MAXIMIZED.
HERE WE WILL CARRY A LOW CHANCE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO...BUT
OTHERWISE WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY FOLLOWING THE DRIER NAM
AND CANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER QUIET...AND MILD WITH RIDGING ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL MAINTAIN LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHWESTERN NYS AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ON MONDAY BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE DEW POINTS AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY A BIT OF A HUMID
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN STORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S WHICH WILL PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY/CAPE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE AREA THERE WILL
JUST BE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WEAK
IMPULSES OF ENERGY CREST THE RIDGE TOP. THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL
STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH A CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POP FOR A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ACROSS SW NEW YORK IN PROXIMITY TO A
WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKE STATES.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF OVER 500 J/KG WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT HERE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
AIRMASS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IN THIS TIME PERIOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
EARLY...WITH POSSIBLE COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLING OVER THE REGION
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES BRING A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY FOR WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN.
ON BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DAYTIME INSTABILITY OF 1000+ J/KG ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEDNESDAY A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS THE
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE STATE LINE...WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS PASSES
TOWARDS OUR REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A COOL POOL OF AIR WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT
THURSDAY...COMPARED TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE ECMWF WILL PHASE THIS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS PHASING WILL DEVELOP A
TROUGH THAT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE THE GFS
DOES NOT PHASE THESE TWO TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE...AND CONTINUES A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CONTINUITY AND CONTINUE A LOW CHANCE POP FOR FRIDAY...WITH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. A WEALTH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO BE VFR WITHIN
THIS AREA AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTION MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
ON SUNDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS/VSBY
MAINLY VFR. FARTHER WEST EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WAVE
ACTION. TYPICAL OF SPRING...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...WITH LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS AND WAVES NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
000
FXUS61 KBUF 181738
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
138 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA RAIN FREE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
NEXT WEEK WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND STALL OVER
OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. LETS START WITH THE BIG PICTURE AND
WORK DOWN FROM THERE.
BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY BUILD EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WHILE
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR REGION...PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN NY TODAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE
MOST OF THIS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE.
90-100KT H25 JETLETS FOUND WITHIN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO TO CENTRAL LAKE ERIE
EARLIER THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS HAS ALL BUT
DRIED UP...WITH JUST A FEW WEAK RETURNS LEFT. 12Z KBUF SOUNDING
SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER...SO IT IS DOUBTFUL ANY OF
THIS WILL REACH THE GROUND. HAVE THUS REMOVED THE CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
THE SECOND FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITHIN THE RETURN AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
MOVING THIS MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS...AND IS THUS LIKELY
OVERDONE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY. GIVEN THE LATEST
TRENDS...EXPECT THE SOUTHERN TIER TO REMAIN DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REAL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...BLENDED AMSU AND
SSM SOUNDER IMAGERY DEPICTS PWAT VALUES OF ROUGHLY A HALF INCH
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT APPROACH AN
INCH AND HALF (150% OF NORMAL).
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...THE MERCURY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. AN ONSHORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE MUCH COOLER...ONLY
NEAR 60 WITH A FLOW OFF THE STILL CHILLY WATERS.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THE REMOVAL OF
DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY THOUGH...WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING MORE
THAN SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE SRN TIER AND EVENTUALLY...THE EASTERN LK
ONTARIO REGION. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN...IT WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURE LEVELS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S...AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH
850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C/+13C ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AREAS WITHIN
THIS REGION COULD EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THE BULK OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK/MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND INCREASED OVERALL MOISTURE. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...
WHERE THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT
IN DEPICTING A DEEPER PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER AMOUNTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR A NUMBER
OF THE MODELS TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS REGION TO THE VERY LOW END OF
THE CHANCE RANGE ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN HERE THE BULK OF THE DAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING OUR AREA
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY NIGHT...ALONG WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH THE
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE LIKELY SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF ALL.
ON MONDAY...NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED FIRMLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY REMAINING DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH TEMPS/HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...SOMEWHAT WARMER 850 MB TEMPS OF +13C TO +15C
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES EVEN
MAKING A RUN AT THE MID 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
60S...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID DAY...ONE
MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER THAN MID SPRING.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GET KNOCKED BACK SOME BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOR WHICH SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE ANOTHER RATHER MILD AND MODERATELY
HUMID NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THIS FEATURE. WITH THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING
OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN QUESTION THIS FAR
OUT...FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF ONE LAST
SURFACE WAVE FINALLY DISPLACES THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER FOR FRIDAY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. A WEALTH OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY SOME DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH
NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN REACH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION ON SUNDAY. STILL EXPECT CIGS TO BE VFR WITHIN
THIS AREA AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARM
ADVECTION MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
ON SUNDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP CIGS/VSBY
MAINLY VFR. FARTHER WEST EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND ITSELF TO LOCALIZED ONSHORE
FLOW EACH AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 181433
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA RAIN FREE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
NEXT WEEK WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND STALL OVER
OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT
PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. LETS START WITH THE BIG PICTURE AND
WORK DOWN FROM THERE.
BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY BUILD EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WHILE
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR REGION...PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM THE FINGER LAKES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN NY TODAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE
MOST OF THIS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE.
90-100KT H25 JETLETS FOUND WITHIN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO TO CENTRAL LAKE ERIE
DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING
SHOW MOST OF THIS IS NOW VIRGA WITH PLENTY OF SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION
IN THE LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER NOTED ON THE 12Z KBUF SOUNDING. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN SPOTTY AND VERY LIGHT.
THE SECOND FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WITHIN THE RETURN AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL MAINLY COME INTO PLAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR SRN TIER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
100-200 J/KG AND LI`S ARND ZERO)...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHRA
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS MAINLY
ACROSS CATTARAUGUS AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES.
THE REAL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...BLENDED AMSU AND
SSM SOUNDER IMAGERY DEPICTS PWAT VALUES OF ROUGHLY A HALF INCH
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT APPROACH AN
INCH AND HALF (150% OF NORMAL).
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...THE MERCURY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKES. AN ONSHORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE MUCH COOLER...ONLY
NEAR 60 WITH A FLOW OFF THE STILL CHILLY WATERS.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THE REMOVAL OF
DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY THOUGH...WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING MORE
THAN SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE SRN TIER AND EVENTUALLY...THE EASTERN LK
ONTARIO REGION. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN...IT WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURE LEVELS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S...AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH
850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C/+13C ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AREAS WITHIN
THIS REGION COULD EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THE BULK OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK/MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND INCREASED OVERALL MOISTURE. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...
WHERE THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT
IN DEPICTING A DEEPER PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER AMOUNTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR A NUMBER
OF THE MODELS TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS REGION TO THE VERY LOW END OF
THE CHANCE RANGE ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN HERE THE BULK OF THE DAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING OUR AREA
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY NIGHT...ALONG WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH THE
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE LIKELY SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF ALL.
ON MONDAY...NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED FIRMLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY REMAINING DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH TEMPS/HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...SOMEWHAT WARMER 850 MB TEMPS OF +13C TO +15C
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES EVEN
MAKING A RUN AT THE MID 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
60S...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID DAY...ONE
MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER THAN MID SPRING.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GET KNOCKED BACK SOME BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOR WHICH SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE ANOTHER RATHER MILD AND MODERATELY
HUMID NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THIS FEATURE. WITH THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING
OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN QUESTION THIS FAR
OUT...FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF ONE LAST
SURFACE WAVE FINALLY DISPLACES THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER FOR FRIDAY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ALTO-CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND ITSELF TO LOCALIZED ONSHORE
FLOW EACH AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 181134
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED AFTER THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH
AND STALL OVER OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THAT PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. LETS START WITH THE BIG PICTURE AND
WORK DOWN FROM THERE.
BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY BUILD EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WHILE
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR REGION...PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE DIMMED OUR
SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE SKIES WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES TODAY.
90-100KT H25 JETLETS FOUND WITHIN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO TO LAKE ERIE DURING THE
PAST 18 HOURS. A COUPLE OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (MAINLY CHAUT CO) TODAY...BUT WITH 20 DEG F
TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...THE BULK OF THE PCPN
WILL DRY OUT OR FALL AS SPRINKLES.
THE SECOND FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WITHIN THE RETURN AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL MAINLY COME INTO PLAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER THIS AFTERNOON...
WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG
AND LI`S ARND ZERO)...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.
THE REAL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...BLENDED AMSU AND
SSM SONDER IMAGERY DEPICTS PWAT VALUES OF ROUGHLY A HALF INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT APPROACH AN INCH
AND HALF (150% OF NORMAL).
BOILING ALL OF THIS DOWN...THE WRN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
FILLED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH PEAKS OF SUN WHILE
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...THE MERCURY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THE REMOVAL OF
DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY THOUGH...WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING MORE
THAN SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE SRN TIER AND EVENTUALLY...THE EASTERN LK
ONTARIO REGION. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN...IT WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURE LEVELS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S...AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH
850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C/+13C ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AREAS WITHIN
THIS REGION COULD EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THE BULK OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK/MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND INCREASED OVERALL MOISTURE. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...
WHERE THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT
IN DEPICTING A DEEPER PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER AMOUNTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR A NUMBER
OF THE MODELS TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS REGION TO THE VERY LOW END OF
THE CHANCE RANGE ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN HERE THE BULK OF THE DAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING OUR AREA
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY NIGHT...ALONG WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH THE
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE LIKELY SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF ALL.
ON MONDAY...NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED FIRMLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY REMAINING DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH TEMPS/HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...SOMEWHAT WARMER 850 MB TEMPS OF +13C TO +15C
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES EVEN
MAKING A RUN AT THE MID 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
60S...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID DAY...ONE
MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER THAN MID SPRING.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GET KNOCKED BACK SOME BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOR WHICH SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE ANOTHER RATHER MILD AND MODERATELY
HUMID NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THIS FEATURE. WITH THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING
OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN QUESTION THIS FAR
OUT...FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF ONE LAST
SURFACE WAVE FINALLY DISPLACES THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER FOR FRIDAY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ALTO-CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND ITSELF TO LOCALIZED ONSHORE
FLOW EACH AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 180740
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN QUEBEC TODAY WILL SETTLE SOUTH TO THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED AFTER THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH
AND STALL OVER OUR REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THAT PERIOD WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
PARTICULARLY NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE SOME FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. LETS START WITH THE BIG PICTURE AND
WORK DOWN FROM THERE.
BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
AMPLIFY AND GRADUALLY BUILD EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WHILE
THIS WILL PRODUCE WEAK SUBSIDENCE ACROSS OUR REGION...PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES IN ADVANCE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS MOISTURE DIMMED OUR
SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHROUD THE SKIES WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES TODAY.
90-100KT H25 JETLETS FOUND WITHIN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST ONTARIO TO LAKE ERIE DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. A COUPLE OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER (MAINLY CHAUT CO) TODAY...BUT WITH 20 DEG F
TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...THE BULK OF THE PCPN
WILL DRY OUT OR FALL AS SPRINKLES.
THE SECOND FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE INFLUX OF SOME ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WITHIN THE RETURN AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH. THIS
WILL MAINLY COME INTO PLAY ACROSS THE SRN TIER THIS AFTERNOON...
WHEN COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 100-200 J/KG
AND LI`S ARND ZERO)...THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHRA ACTIVITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO COVER THIS WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS.
THE REAL MOISTURE THOUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH IN THE VCNTY
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...BLENDED AMSU AND
SSM SONDER IMAGERY DEPICTS PWAT VALUES OF ROUGHLY A HALF INCH ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA WHILE VALUES SOUTH OF THE FRONT APPROACH AN INCH
AND HALF (150% OF NORMAL).
BOILING ALL OF THIS DOWN...THE WRN COUNTIES CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
FILLED WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH PEAKS OF SUN WHILE
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE FOUND EAST OF LK ONTARIO. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...THE MERCURY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
TONIGHT WILL FEATURE A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARDS FROM PENNSYLVANIA. WITH THE REMOVAL OF
DIURNALLY BASED INSTABILITY THOUGH...WILL NOT CARRY ANYTHING MORE
THAN SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE SRN TIER AND EVENTUALLY...THE EASTERN LK
ONTARIO REGION. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN...IT WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE WEST TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS EAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE RESULTANT WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL CONTINUE A SLOW INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND
TEMPERATURE LEVELS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 50S...AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER-MID 70S ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WITH
850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +12C/+13C ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY FAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW AREAS WITHIN
THIS REGION COULD EVEN REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE
THE BULK OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY WITH JUST SOME PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
STILL CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK/MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND INCREASED OVERALL MOISTURE. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...
WHERE THE BULK OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE REMAINS RATHER CONSISTENT
IN DEPICTING A DEEPER PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER AMOUNTS OF WARM AIR ADVECTION...WHICH IS ENOUGH FOR A NUMBER
OF THE MODELS TO GENERATE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS REGION TO THE VERY LOW END OF
THE CHANCE RANGE ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN HERE THE BULK OF THE DAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
DURING SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIBBON OF MOISTURE AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SLIDE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING OUR AREA
DIRECTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DRY NIGHT...ALONG WITH RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH THE
CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE LIKELY SEEING THE WARMEST TEMPS OF ALL.
ON MONDAY...NEW YORK STATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED FIRMLY
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY REMAINING DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY DAY...THOUGH WITH TEMPS/HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY RISE SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME
PARTIAL SUNSHINE...SOMEWHAT WARMER 850 MB TEMPS OF +13C TO +15C
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES EVEN
MAKING A RUN AT THE MID 80S. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
60S...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM AND MODERATELY HUMID DAY...ONE
MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER THAN MID SPRING.
MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FINALLY GET KNOCKED BACK SOME BY
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AT
THE LOWER LEVELS...THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTANT INCREASE IN LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT...FOR WHICH SOME LOWER-END CHANCE POPS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE ANOTHER RATHER MILD AND MODERATELY
HUMID NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM...EXPECT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO BE THE GENERAL
RULE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THIS FEATURE. WITH THE EXACT TRACK/TIMING
OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN QUESTION THIS FAR
OUT...FOR NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER THAT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY AS THE PASSAGE OF ONE LAST
SURFACE WAVE FINALLY DISPLACES THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER FOR FRIDAY AS
COOLER/DRIER AIR RETURNS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONTAL ZONE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ALTO-CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
FINE RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND ITSELF TO LOCALIZED ONSHORE
FLOW EACH AFTERNOON. WAVES WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 180544
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
FOR REGION THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH
IS NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT TIME
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WHILE A SFC HIGH NOSING SOUTH FROM QUEBEC WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE POURING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
SHROUD OUR SKIES. REGIONAL U.S. AND CANADIAN RADARS ARE ALSO SHOWING
A FAIR AMOUNT OF JET INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THIS BAND OF
MOISTURE...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE ADDED SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE TO COVER FOR ANY PCPN
THAT STRAYS INTO THE REGION.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL THEN
WAVER A BIT FURTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY YIELDING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EASTERLY WINDS AND 850
MB TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO 10C WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS FOUND
CLOSER TO THE LAKES DUE TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES..
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTH...EITHER INTO NY OR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOVES
NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS LIFT IS QUITE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD WARM NICELY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S DURING
THE DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. AS THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE REGION WILL GET DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND TRACK OF EACH LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ALTO-CU AND CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 180251
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE OBS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH THE JETSTREAM IN PLACE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE WARMER ACROSS WNY. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
HAS ALLOWED BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL HOLD
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE TEMPS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL WAVER
A BIT NORTH ON SATURDAY YIELDING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EASTERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS
RUNNING CLOSE TO 10C WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH COOLER TEMPS FOUND CLOSER TO THE
LAKES DUE TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES..
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTH...EITHER INTO NY OR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOVES
NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS LIFT IS QUITE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD WARM NICELY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S DURING
THE DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. AS THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE REGION WILL GET DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND TRACK OF EACH LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO KEEPS FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THIS...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 172349
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL WAVER A
BIT NORTH ON SATURDAY YIELDING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S WHILE TEMPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. EASTERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO 10C
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTH...EITHER INTO NY OR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOVES
NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS LIFT IS QUITE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD WARM NICELY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S DURING
THE DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. AS THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE REGION WILL GET DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND TRACK OF EACH LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OUTSIDE OF THIS...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...LEVAN
000
FXUS61 KBUF 172049
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
449 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ADVANCING FROM THE
WEST. A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL WAVER A
BIT NORTH ON SATURDAY YIELDING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD WILL HOLD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S WHILE TEMPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S. EASTERLY WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS RUNNING CLOSE TO 10C
WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S AND A LITTLE COOLER NEAR THE LAKE SHORES WITH LOCAL LAKE
BREEZES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
NORTH...EITHER INTO NY OR SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS THIS MOVES
NORTH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AS LIFT IS QUITE WEAK.
TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER...SHOULD WARM NICELY
WITH THE WARM ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S DURING
THE DAY...ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY. AS THESE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION THE REGION WILL GET DEPENDING ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE FRONT AND TRACK OF EACH LOW ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL
TREND TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND MOVES EAST
OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CIRRUS WILL PROVIDE THE ONLY CIGS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN/SMITH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
000
FXUS61 KBUF 171758
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER INTO START OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. A
STATIONARY FRONT HANGING OUT ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA WILL WAVER
A BIT NORTH ON SATURDAY YIELDING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
TEMPERATURE-WISE ... THE CIRRUS WILL HOLD MINS ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE TO THE EAST TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY WARM TO THE LOW TO MID
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
YORK STATE/NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT TO SEA...
WHILE A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA...ALONG WITH A SLOW BUT
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS SAID...WITH ANY NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND/OR SHORTWAVES REMAINING WELL
NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
LARGELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER... WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE THUS KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO WARM FROM THE LOW-MID 70S SATURDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY
MONDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR
RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE
POINT...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL THREE DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY
TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY PER THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIBLE WAVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST LATE
IN THE WEEKEND A SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE DEVELOPS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN
000
FXUS61 KBUF 171440
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER. OUR NEXT LEGITIMATE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER INTERRUPTED BY NORTHEAST EARTHQUAKE. EQR/PNS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED WITH DETAILS.
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THOUGH WHEN SKIES WERE SUN
FILLED...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT 30 YEAR NORMALS...WHICH ENDS UP
BEING A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH
THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
NOSE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT THOUGH...PARTLY BECAUSE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS (MAINLY WRN COUNTIES) BUT MORESO BECAUSE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE `RETURN FLOW` AROUND THE EXITING SFC
HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST AND
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
YORK STATE/NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT TO SEA...
WHILE A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA...ALONG WITH A SLOW BUT
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS SAID...WITH ANY NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND/OR SHORTWAVES REMAINING WELL
NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
LARGELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER... WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE THUS KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO WARM FROM THE LOW-MID 70S SATURDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY
MONDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR
RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE
POINT...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL THREE DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY
TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY PER THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KEEP RAIN FREE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 171127
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
727 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER. OUR NEXT LEGITIMATE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. UNLIKE YESTERDAY THOUGH WHEN SKIES WERE SUN
FILLED...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CIRRUS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT 30 YEAR NORMALS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING
A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON THURSDAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...WITH THE
WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AS WELL
AS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
NOSE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT THOUGH...PARTLY BECAUSE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS (MAINLY WRN COUNTIES) BUT MORESO BECAUSE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE `RETURN FLOW` AROUND THE EXITING SFC
HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST AND
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
YORK STATE/NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT TO SEA...
WHILE A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA...ALONG WITH A SLOW BUT
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS SAID...WITH ANY NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND/OR SHORTWAVES REMAINING WELL
NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
LARGELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER... WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE THUS KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO WARM FROM THE LOW-MID 70S SATURDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY
MONDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR
RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE
POINT...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL THREE DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY
TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY PER THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KEEP RAIN FREE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 170830
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
430 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER. OUR NEXT LEGITIMATE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT 30 YEAR NORMALS...
WHICH ENDS UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TODAY...WITH SOME
LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
NOSE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT THOUGH...PARTLY BECAUSE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS (MAINLY WRN COUNTIES) BUT MORESO BECAUSE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE `RETURN FLOW` AROUND THE EXITING SFC
HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST AND
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
YORK STATE/NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT TO SEA...
WHILE A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA...ALONG WITH A SLOW BUT
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS SAID...WITH ANY NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND/OR SHORTWAVES REMAINING WELL
NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
LARGELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER... WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE THUS KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO WARM FROM THE LOW-MID 70S SATURDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY
MONDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR
RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE
POINT...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL THREE DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY
TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY PER THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KEEP RAIN FREE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 170710
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND...THEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER. OUR NEXT LEGITIMATE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL NOSE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER SUN FILLED DAY...THERE WILL BE SOME CIRRUS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT 30 YEAR NORMALS...
WHICH ENDS UP BEING A COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED ON
THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TODAY...WITH SOME
LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.
TONIGHT...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
NOSE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. IT
WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT THOUGH...PARTLY BECAUSE OF
SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS (MAINLY WRN COUNTIES) BUT MORESO BECAUSE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WITHIN THE `RETURN FLOW` AROUND THE EXITING SFC
HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE WEST AND
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM QUEBEC TO NEW
YORK STATE/NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST AND OUT TO SEA...
WHILE A CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK TO MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA...ALONG WITH A SLOW BUT
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS SAID...WITH ANY NOTEWORTHY
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND/OR SHORTWAVES REMAINING WELL
NORTH OR SOUTH OF OUR REGION...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD
LARGELY JUST LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER... WITH
JUST SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME IN THE WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE THUS KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
PLAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE. EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS TO WARM FROM THE LOW-MID 70S SATURDAY TO THE MID-UPPER 70S BY
MONDAY...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS MODERATE TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S BY
MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED AS A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDE EAST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE WAVES AND THEIR
RESULTANT IMPACT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINING MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE
POINT...FOR NOW FEEL IT BEST TO CONTINUE WITH BROADBRUSH SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR ALL THREE DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY
TRENDING A LITTLE COOLER FOR THURSDAY PER THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
BEAUTIFUL CONDITIONS FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LIGHT
WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH
ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KEEP RAIN FREE WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED
FOR THE LATER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
000
FXUS61 KBUF 170539
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WORKING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER
QUEBEC.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S...ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGHS JUST A
TOUCH COOLER THAT TODAYS READINGS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES SE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD SLOWLY
BE MOVING INTO THE NE US. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY
CENTRAL IL TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM A RELATIVELY DRY .5 INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN
INCH AT TIMES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS OUTPUT AS THE SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS ABLE TO HOLD MORE
MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOSTLY LIKELY WEATHER OUTCOME IS FOR
A DRY WEEKEND ALBEIT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS
TYPICALLY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT TUESDAY FOR BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH BY THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN...WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...AN EARLY LOOK AT THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN MID WEEK...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
JUST UPSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN AN
LIGHT EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL/RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/RSH/TMA
000
FXUS61 KBUF 170248
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1048 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WORKING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER
QUEBEC. THE FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROF
HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FORT HE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S..ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGHS JUST A TOUCH COOLER
THAT TODAYS READINGS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES SE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD SLOWLY
BE MOVING INTO THE NE US. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY
CENTRAL IL TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM A RELATIVELY DRY .5 INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN
INCH AT TIMES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS OUTPUT AS THE SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS ABLE TO HOLD MORE
MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOSTLY LIKELY WEATHER OUTCOME IS FOR
A DRY WEEKEND ALBEIT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS
TYPICALLY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT TUESDAY FOR BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH BY THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN...WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...AN EARLY LOOK AT THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN MID WEEK...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
JUST UPSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN AN LIGHT EASTERLY GRADIENT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
000
FXUS61 KBUF 162327
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
727 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WORKING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER
QUEBEC. DIURNAL CU HAVE LARGELY ERODED...WITH JUST A THIN BAND OF MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
EXITING UPPER LEVEL TROF...AND SHOULD STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TROF EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITMES.
THIS WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHILE ELSEWHERE
SHOULD BE CLEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S..ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGHS JUST A TOUCH COOLER
THAT TODAYS READINGS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES SE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD SLOWLY
BE MOVING INTO THE NE US. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY
CENTRAL IL TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM A RELATIVELY DRY .5 INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN
INCH AT TIMES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS OUTPUT AS THE SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS ABLE TO HOLD MORE
MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOSTLY LIKELY WEATHER OUTCOME IS FOR
A DRY WEEKEND ALBEIT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS
TYPICALLY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT TUESDAY FOR BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH BY THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN...WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...AN EARLY LOOK AT THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN MID WEEK...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
JUST UPSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN AN LIGHT EASTERLY GRADIENT
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
000
FXUS61 KBUF 162156
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
556 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...SO WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO A NICE STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SITS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS WORKING AROUND THE UPPER CIRCULATION OVER
QUEBEC. DIURNAL CU FIELD WHICH HAS DEVELOPED DURING AFTERNOON
HEATING WILL ERODED QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AREAS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S..ALTHOUGH SOME 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY
FROST.
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD HIGHS JUST A TOUCH COOLER
THAT TODAYS READINGS...WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL BE THE MAIN
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES SE TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD SLOWLY
BE MOVING INTO THE NE US. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM ROUGHLY
CENTRAL IL TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO
INFLUENCE ON WESTERN NY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INCREASE FROM A RELATIVELY DRY .5 INCH TO SLIGHTLY OVER AN
INCH AT TIMES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS OUTPUT AS THE SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS ABLE TO HOLD MORE
MOISTURE. WILL PLACE A LOW /20 PERCENT/ CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MOSTLY LIKELY WEATHER OUTCOME IS FOR
A DRY WEEKEND ALBEIT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER AT TIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE. MUCH LIKE SUNDAY...A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND A SLOWLY WARMING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE CONTINUED LOW THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MODEST WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
AT SOME POINT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS
TYPICALLY LOW THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS
AT TUESDAY FOR BEING THE MORE ACTIVE OF THE TWO DAYS. THE FRONT
WILL PROBABLY BE THROUGH BY THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PATTERN...WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...AN EARLY LOOK AT THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS A BIT BETTER THAN MID WEEK...WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AS AN UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS
JUST UPSTREAM.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SFC WINDS WILL BE 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH SOME MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL BOTH LIMIT
MIXING AND DIMINISH THE LAKE BREEZE. A FEW SPOTS MAY GUST TO 20
OR 25 KNOTS THROUGH SUNSET...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AVAILABLE WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW WAVES
ARE BELOW 4 FEET. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL ALLOW ALL SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES TO EXPIRE AT 600 PM.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHEN AN
LIGHT EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA
| 
