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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221410
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
IS HELPING TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS DECK...WITH CLEAR SKIES JUST
UPSTREAM.  ONCE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD
HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS
EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE
NAM/SREF...MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FEEL THE
NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE LATTER SET
OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/SREF TOO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE CONSENSUS BLEND. IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

ON TUESDAY...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF GUIDANCE CAPTURE
THIS...BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON QPF. FORECAST POPS KEY ON THIS
BAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS WILL MIX DOWN OR REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PEAKING AROUND 40 KTS AT 925MB...BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DOWNSLOPE IN ALL AREAS WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HOLDING THE COOL AIR IN AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MIXING
IS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BUT IF WINDS
TO DO NOT DOWNSLOPE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO A REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THE ENTIRE DAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. ONCE THIS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WHICH
CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN ON CHRISTMAS
EVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS...INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSLOPING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +12C EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY
BE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINLY...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

COOLER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO NOT BE VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS SHOULD COME EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE GUSTS STILL MAY PUSH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES
CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS ERODED THE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LONGER WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KART.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG WITH
SOME ICE PELLETS BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221410
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND THE HIGH
IS HELPING TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS DECK...WITH CLEAR SKIES JUST
UPSTREAM.  ONCE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF WELCOME SUNSHINE. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDINESS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD
HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS
EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE
NAM/SREF...MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FEEL THE
NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE LATTER SET
OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/SREF TOO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE CONSENSUS BLEND. IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

ON TUESDAY...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF GUIDANCE CAPTURE
THIS...BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON QPF. FORECAST POPS KEY ON THIS
BAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS WILL MIX DOWN OR REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PEAKING AROUND 40 KTS AT 925MB...BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DOWNSLOPE IN ALL AREAS WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HOLDING THE COOL AIR IN AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MIXING
IS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BUT IF WINDS
TO DO NOT DOWNSLOPE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO A REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THE ENTIRE DAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. ONCE THIS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WHICH
CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST OF THIS MOISTURE TO OUR
EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN ON CHRISTMAS
EVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS...INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSLOPING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +12C EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY
BE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINLY...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

COOLER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO NOT BE VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS SHOULD COME EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE GUSTS STILL MAY PUSH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES
CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS ERODED THE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LONGER WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KART.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG WITH
SOME ICE PELLETS BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221144
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
644 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HELPING TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS DECK. THE
CLEARING SKIES TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS SEEN PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT WE STILL SHOULD SEEN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND
ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS
EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE
NAM/SREF...MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FEEL THE
NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE LATTER SET
OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/SREF TOO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE CONSENSUS BLEND. IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

ON TUESDAY...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF GUIDANCE CAPTURE
THIS...BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON QPF. FORECAST POPS KEY ON THIS
BAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS WILL MIX DOWN OR REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PEAKING AROUND 40 KTS AT 925MB...BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DOWNSLOPE IN ALL AREAS WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HOLDING THE COOL AIR IN AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MIXING
IS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BUT IF WINDS
TO DO NOT DOWNSLOPE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO A REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THE ENTIRE DAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. ONCE THIS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST OF THIS
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS...INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSLOPING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +12C EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY
BE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WILL AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINLY...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

COOLER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO NOT BE VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS SHOULD COME EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE GUSTS STILL MAY PUSH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES
CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS ERODED THE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS WILL LINGER
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LONGER WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KART.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG WITH
SOME ICE PELLETS BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 220923
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HELPING TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS DECK. THE
CLEARING SKIES TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS SEEN PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT WE STILL SHOULD SEEN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND
ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS
EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE
NAM/SREF...MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FEEL THE
NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE LATTER SET
OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/SREF TOO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE CONSENSUS BLEND. IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

ON TUESDAY...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF GUIDANCE CAPTURE
THIS...BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON QPF. FORECAST POPS KEY ON THIS
BAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS WILL MIX DOWN OR REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PEAKING AROUND 40 KTS AT 925MB...BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DOWNSLOPE IN ALL AREAS WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HOLDING THE COOL AIR IN AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MIXING
IS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BUT IF WINDS
TO DO NOT DOWNSLOPE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO A REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THE ENTIRE DAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. ONCE THIS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST OF THIS
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS...INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSLOPING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +12C EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY
BE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WILL AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINLY...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

COOLER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO NOT BE VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS SHOULD COME EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE GUSTS STILL MAY PUSH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES
CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE MVFR
CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG WITH
SOME ICE PELLETS BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...SMITH/APFFEL
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 220923
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH OVERNIGHT HELPING TO FINALLY ERODE THE STRATUS DECK. THE
CLEARING SKIES TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
CLOUDINESS SEEN PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY...BUT WE STILL SHOULD SEEN A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN AND
ADDED SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.

MOISTURE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MAY NUDGE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES TOWARD MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX IF THE PRECIPITATION STARTS
EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LEADING UP TO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES PROBABLY ON CHRISTMAS EVE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A STRONG FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE
NAM/SREF...MODEL GUIDANCE TRACKS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FEEL THE
NAM/SREF GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE ECMWF/GGEM/GFS CONSENSUS.
THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE LATTER SET
OF GUIDANCE...WITH THE NAM/SREF TOO DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT TO INCLUDE
IN THE CONSENSUS BLEND. IT STILL APPEARS THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG WINDS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY.

ON TUESDAY...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST NAM/GFS/RGEM/SREF GUIDANCE CAPTURE
THIS...BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON QPF. FORECAST POPS KEY ON THIS
BAND...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS THE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LITTLE QUESTION THAT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN...IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS WILL MIX DOWN OR REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION. THERE
WILL BE A DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PEAKING AROUND 40 KTS AT 925MB...BUT
THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO DOWNSLOPE IN ALL AREAS WITH SOME GUIDANCE
HOLDING THE COOL AIR IN AT THE SURFACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MIXING
IS OFF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH...BUT IF WINDS
TO DO NOT DOWNSLOPE THEN TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 40S.
BECAUSE OF THIS...LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY TO A REFLECT THIS
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A A COUPLE HOURS OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...BUT THE ENTIRE DAY SHOULD NOT BE A WASHOUT. ONCE THIS
LIFTS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING...EXPECT LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT.

THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND MOIST AIR
WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE BEST OF THIS
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST...BUT STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN ON
CHRISTMAS EVE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW TO TRACK TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. THIS IS
LIKELY TO BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THIS...INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DOWNSLOPING AND THUS WARMER
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +12C EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY
BE LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS MORE THAN 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

EXPECT STRONG WINDS WILL AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA OF 60 MPH OR GREATER.
ALSO...THERE WILL BE LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT SQUALL LINE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL UNCERTAINLY...DID NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE A MENTION IN THE HWO.

COOLER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH MORNING
RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO NOT BE VERY COLD...WITH ONLY A
MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE EXPECTED. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. HIGHS SHOULD COME EARLY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 30S CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
WHERE GUSTS STILL MAY PUSH ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EAST OF THE
LAKES...WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES
CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED
AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS BACK TO AROUND FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE STRATUS DECK
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND CONDITIONS
BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE MVFR
CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG WITH
SOME ICE PELLETS BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE TODAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...SMITH/APFFEL
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...APFFEL/TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 220236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
936 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 220236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
936 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING THICK STRATUS DOMINATING
MOST OF THE REGION. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A FEW
BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK
IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL RANGE WITH MOST AREAS
STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN MOST AREAS AND UPPER
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 212321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
621 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 212321
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
621 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE
THE STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING
OUT AND CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG
HILL REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 212028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 212028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY AND PROVIDE ONE
MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALONG WITH THE WARMTH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW
SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO
REVOLVE AROUND THE EVER PRESENT LOW STRATUS AND ITS EVOLUTION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING THICK STRATUS
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOMEWHAT THINNER STRATOCUMULUS
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER. NAM POINT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 3K FEET...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STRATUS THROUGH TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...SO EVEN IN AREAS NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE A FEW BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THE STRATUS
WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK IN OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIURNAL
RANGE WITH MOST AREAS STAYING CLOUDY. EXPECT LOWS IN THE MID 20S IN
MOST AREAS AND UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

ON MONDAY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP TO FINALLY ERODE THE
LOW STRATUS FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE PLAINS WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. THE STRATUS MAY BE MORE DIFFICULT TO
DISLODGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER...
FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL JUST BRING A MODEST INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL CLOUD WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP REMAINING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BOOST
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER RECENT DAYS...WITH UPPER 30S ON THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND MID 30S ON THE HILLS AND NORTH COUNTRY.
SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY
PUSH 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WILL BE ON A STORM EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES LATER TUESDAY THEN MERGE WITH
A NORTHERN STREAM LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
THIS WILL BRING VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE TO AT TIMES
HEAVY RAINFALL ON CHRISTMAS EVE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS EVE THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. ON MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL BRING OVERCAST SKIES WHILE
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS BEFOREHAND DRYING UP BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. IT IS WORTH A MENTION THAT ANY PRECIP THAT COULD REACH
THE SURFACE EARLY TUESDAY WHEN TEMPS ARE STILL HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING MAY FALL AS A LIGHT WINTERY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL
ABOVE FREEZING SO PLAIN RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE HERE.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S WITH AROUND 50 ALONG
THE LAKESHORES ON TUESDAY WITH A DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE A PLUME OF MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL SHIFT
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SURFACE LOW AS IT MERGES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE OVER ONE INCH WHICH IS
NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE SHOULD YIELD
SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
ALSO HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KNOT
850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASING WINDS...DOWNSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST SURFACE
TEMPS INTO THE 50S WITH A RUN AT 60 DEGREES FOR BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THESE NUMBERS ARE 20+ DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL LATE DECEMBER HIGHS.

A SHARP COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW IS FAVORABLE
FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE FALLING
PRESSURES WITHIN THE LOW ALSO REQUIRED FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT. WINDS
OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT HELPING TO MIX THESE STRONG WINDS TO THE
SURFACE. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS EVENT AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
LEAN TOWARD MAINLY A WESTERN NEW YORK EVENT POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WELL INLAND
FROM THE LAKES. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO 60 MPH EAST OF LAKE ERIE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY EVENTUALLY BRING THE NEED FOR A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW
YORK WHICH WILL ENSURE A GUSTY CHRISTMAS DAY. WINDS GUSTS INTO THE
40S SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

COLD AIR WILL ALSO WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC
BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY. 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK TO ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND
-8C. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE
MID 30S WITH LOW 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO REFLECT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME LIMITED WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING POST FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 5KFT
DURING THE DAY.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID 40S
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAKER GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SHOT OF WESTERN CANADIAN SOURCED AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY
THEN PLAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK TO AROUND
FREEZING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THEN CROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON
THURSDAY. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TRACK FOR STRONG WINDS
ON THE LOWER LAKES...WITH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ON
BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GREATER ROCHESTER
AREA WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE HAS BEEN FOUND. THIS IS NOW QUICKLY
FILLING IN WITH CUMULUS...AND EXPECT THE CU TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
INTO A STRATO-CU DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN
THE HOLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FARTHER NORTH FROM KIAG TO KROC A NICE HOLE
OPENED UP EARLIER...BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN NOW WITH CUMULUS.
EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELDS TO MATURE AND SPREAD OUT INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN THE HOLE WITH MVFR CIGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211734
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1234 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND GREATER ROCHESTER
AREA WHERE SOME BONUS SUNSHINE HAS BEEN FOUND. THIS IS NOW QUICKLY
FILLING IN WITH CUMULUS...AND EXPECT THE CU TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
INTO A STRATO-CU DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN
THE HOLE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE THICKEST STRATUS THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH MVFR CIGS DOMINANT. SOME OF THE HIGHEST
HILLS WILL STILL SEE LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. FARTHER NORTH FROM KIAG TO KROC A NICE HOLE
OPENED UP EARLIER...BUT THIS IS RAPIDLY FILLING IN NOW WITH CUMULUS.
EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELDS TO MATURE AND SPREAD OUT INTO A
STRATOCUMULUS DECK AND EFFECTIVELY FILL IN THE HOLE WITH MVFR CIGS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WEAK SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS IN MOST
AREAS. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
INCREASE. THE DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
STRATUS DECK ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND
CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. STRATUS MAY LOCK IN LONGER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 211425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE HAS OPENED UP THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS ADDITIONAL STRATUS BACK INTO
THIS AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. A HOLE IN THE STRATUS HAS OPENED
UP NEAR KROC...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL STRATUS SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 211425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BASED AROUND 3K FEET. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE TODAY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION WILL BE PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE HAS OPENED UP THIS MORNING TO ALLOW FOR
SOME SUNSHINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED...AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS ADDITIONAL STRATUS BACK INTO
THIS AREA.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE LAKE
PLAINS OF WESTERN NY WITH UPPER 20S ON SOME OF THE HILLS AND ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LOWER 20S NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT. IFR CIGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR. A HOLE IN THE STRATUS HAS OPENED
UP NEAR KROC...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL STRATUS SPREADS INTO THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 211130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
630 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION BASED
AROUND 3K FEET. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WAS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME
FLURRIES...BUT A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID LEVEL DECK
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST COMMON THIS MORNING...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 211130
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
630 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION BASED
AROUND 3K FEET. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WAS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME
FLURRIES...BUT A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID LEVEL DECK
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST COMMON THIS MORNING...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 210823
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION BASED
AROUND 3K FEET. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WAS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME
FLURRIES...BUT A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID LEVEL DECK
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
DECK BECOMING SCATTERED AT TIMES AT KBUF/KIAG. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT WESTERN NEW YORK COULD
SCATTER OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210823
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING
INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR
WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CONTINUING TO CAUSE LIGHT LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA...
RESULTING PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION BASED
AROUND 3K FEET. MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WAS ALSO RESULTING IN SOME
FLURRIES...BUT A LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN STRATUS AND MID LEVEL DECK
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STRONG WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL BACKING/INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH MAY SCOUR OUT SOME OF THE LOW
CLOUDS BY TONIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD AS
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST.

THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER/MID 30S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHICH WILL PERSIST IN SPITE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. ON MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL REINFORCE
THE CLOUDY SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD
OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK.
MOISTURE PROFILES DO NOT BECOME FULLY SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE
MORNING SO THERE WILL BE A MOISTENING FROM ALOFT TO KEEP LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FROM EVAPORATING ON THEIR WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES
FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS
SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AND AVOID THE POSSIBILITY OF A FREEZING WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL
STEADY OR CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A CONCERN OF HIGHER WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THAT THE HIGHER WINDS ARE PREFRONTAL AND STILL ABOVE A FAIRLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE INVERSION. WINDS FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT APPEAR TO BE
MORE WESTERLY AND WITH LESS MAGNITUDE...STILL POSSIBLE FOR A QUICK
BLAST OF GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS ACCOMPANYING THE THE COLD FRONT.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
DECK BECOMING SCATTERED AT TIMES AT KBUF/KIAG. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT WESTERN NEW YORK COULD
SCATTER OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME ON
MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH/WCH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210458
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY FLURRIES WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE
PUSH WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
DECK BECOMING SCATTERED AT TIMES AT KBUF/KIAG. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT WESTERN NEW YORK COULD
SCATTER OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210458
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY FLURRIES WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE
PUSH WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
DECK BECOMING SCATTERED AT TIMES AT KBUF/KIAG. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT WESTERN NEW YORK COULD
SCATTER OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210458
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY FLURRIES WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE
PUSH WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
DECK BECOMING SCATTERED AT TIMES AT KBUF/KIAG. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT WESTERN NEW YORK COULD
SCATTER OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210458
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY FLURRIES WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE
PUSH WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE
DECK BECOMING SCATTERED AT TIMES AT KBUF/KIAG. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT WESTERN NEW YORK COULD
SCATTER OUT OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST COMMON OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210225
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY FLURRIES WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE
PUSH WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN
THE STRATUS WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW
STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS KART ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210225
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
925 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND FAIRLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT ANY FLURRIES WILL BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE
PUSH WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN
THE STRATUS WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW
STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS KART ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 202337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
NIAGARA COUNTY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
THIS EVENING WHERE WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR FROM QUEBEC...HOLDING THE STRATUS AT BAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE
FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW
STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS KART ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 202337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
NIAGARA COUNTY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
THIS EVENING WHERE WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR FROM QUEBEC...HOLDING THE STRATUS AT BAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS
WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE
FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW
STRATUS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS KART ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 202040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
NIAGARA COUNTY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
THIS EVENING WHERE WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR FROM QUEBEC...HOLDING THE STRATUS AT BAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 202040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
NIAGARA COUNTY AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NIAGARA
PENINSULA. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY TO
CENTRAL NY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO
THIS EVENING WHERE WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR FROM QUEBEC...HOLDING THE STRATUS AT BAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH WELL
INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO BE
FOCUSED ON A STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
AND SHIFT NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THIS STORM. LATEST 12Z
RUNS GENERALLY FOLLOW THE SAME TRACK WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE
12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THE STORM THAN THE GFS AND
CMC.

ON CHRISTMAS EVE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTH AHEAD
OF THIS STORM BRINGING RAIN AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. NAEFS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR
ONE INCH WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN A 30 YEAR PWAT CLIMO.
THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S CHRISTMAS EVE
SHOULD YIELD SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS MAY HELP TO DRAG DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50
KNOT 850MB JET STREAKING OVERHEAD.

A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL NEEDS
TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS.
THIS FRONT WILL BE THE LEADING EDGE TO COOLER TEMPS. IT IS IMPORTANT
TO MENTION THAT WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THE
SOURCE REGION OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC
BASED SO THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. 850MB TEMPS ARE
WARMER WITH TODAYS RUNS ONLY DROP TO BETWEEN -5C AND -8C. SURFACE
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 30S ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE LATEST FORECAST NOW REFLECTS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LAKE SHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN WITH SOME
LIMITED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE PENDING AVAILABLE POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

A HIGHER CONCERN STILL LIES WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB
WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND MORE RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
WITH SUNSHINE JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...THERE MAY
BE SOME TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF QUEBEC HELPING TO KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY THERE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 40S
ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A
50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING SOME STRONG
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE WIND
THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION
OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO
THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
TO AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN
OVERALL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING
AVAILABLE POST- FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 201821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
WITH SUNSHINE JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...THERE MAY
BE SOME TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF QUEBEC HELPING TO KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY THERE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST STATES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CHRISTMAS
STORM BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN THE RIDGING WILL KEEP FAIR BUT CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH MONDAY AND KEEP WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
SHIELDED FROM ANY PRECIPITATION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES OF A SHOWER ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. MOISTURE PROFILES DO
NOT BECOME SATURATED UNTIL CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING SO PLENTY OF DRY
AIR ALOFT FOR ANY LIGHT SHOWERS AHEAD OF TIME TO EVAPORATE ON THEIR
WAY TO THE GROUND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ANYTHING THAT DOES MAKE IT TO THE GROUND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY BE CONSIST OF A WINTERY MIX
WITH WARM AIR OVER RIDING STILL NEAR FREEZING TEMPS.

THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SLIP
BELOW FREEZING THEN WARM INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE 850MB TEMPS
INCREASE TO AROUND +10C. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY
NIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TEMPS PUSH INTO THE 40S
ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO RISE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A
50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING SOME STRONG
CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE WIND
THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION
OF THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO
THIS LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP
TO AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN
OVERALL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING
AVAILABLE POST- FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201732
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1232 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
WITH SUNSHINE JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...THERE MAY
BE SOME TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF QUEBEC HELPING TO KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY THERE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN. THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER
40S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
MONDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201732
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1232 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO MONDAY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SOARING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
PRODUCE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WINDS
AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS
HANGING VERY TOUGH IN MOST AREAS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE
PA STATE LINE. A FEW HOLES CONTINUE AROUND THE BUF METRO AREA AND
WITH SUNSHINE JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE NIAGARA PENINSULA...THERE MAY
BE SOME TREND TOWARDS MORE SUNSHINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NIAGARA AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRATUS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW OUT OF QUEBEC HELPING TO KEEP STRATUS AT
BAY THERE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FROM QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION...BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ABOVE
THE SHALLOW LOW LEVEL STRATUS LAYER SO EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO CROSS
THE AREA DRY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY LITTLE ADVECTIVE PUSH
WILL DO LITTLE TO HELP CLEAN OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WITH THIS IN
MIND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO KEEP THE STRATUS AND GRAY SKIES TONIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL START OFF CLEAR THIS
EVENING BUT A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY PUSH STRATUS NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH MID 20S ON THE
LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH
TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING BEFORE STRATUS INCREASES THERE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN NY
WITH STILL SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
DEEPEN. THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY
BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS
ON MONDAY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER
40S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF
MONDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PERSISTENT STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE
18Z TAF CYCLE. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS FROM LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHWARD TO THE PA STATE
LINE. SOME CLEARING WILL TRY TO WORK INTO KBUF-KIAG FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THIS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR IN THE STRATUS
WITH A FEW AREAS OF IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. IFR MAY BE MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE CLEAR
SKIES WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW LOW STRATUS
TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT AND TOWARDS KART
ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE COMMON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH VERY LIGHT
WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOME ON MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST LATER TUESDAY WHEN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER.

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS ON BOTH LAKES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES BACK INTO THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201428
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW STRATUS OVERCAST STILL
DOMINATING THE BULK OF THE AREA WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE NORTH
COUNTRY HAS SEEN A DRIER PUSH IN THE LOW LEVELS OUT OF QUEBEC ON
NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE THERE
TODAY WHILE KEEPING THE LOW STRATUS LURKING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT
BAY. A FEW HOLES HAVE ALSO OPENED UP NEAR BUFFALO AND NEAR HILTON
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
FILLING BACK IN WITH STRATUS. OTHERWISE WHERE THE STRATUS IS IN
PLACE THIS MORNING IT WILL LIKELY STAY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...
WITH THE BEST SHOT AT SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO
SHORE.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER. HIGHS
TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER LAYERS WILL NOT BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDINESS...SO MUCH OF
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN.
THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER 40S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES.
THE EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY
FLOW DOES NOT BRING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA








000
FXUS61 KBUF 201129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
629 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO APPROACHING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER LAYERS WILL NOT BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDINESS...SO MUCH OF
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN.
THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER 40S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES.
THE EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY
FLOW DOES NOT BRING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 201129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
629 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO APPROACHING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER LAYERS WILL NOT BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDINESS...SO MUCH OF
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN.
THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER 40S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES.
THE EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY
FLOW DOES NOT BRING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN
VFR CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 200842
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO APPROACHING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER LAYERS WILL NOT BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDINESS...SO MUCH OF
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN.
THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER 40S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF
THE LAKES. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
NORTHERLY FLOW DOES NOT BRING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. KJHW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 200842
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER
TO SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE. SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TODAY...BUT THIS MAY BE
LIMITED DUE TO APPROACHING AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS PUSHING
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY
IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN QUEBEC ON SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LOWER LAYERS WILL NOT BE
SATURATED ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A THICK LAYER OF CLOUDINESS...SO MUCH OF
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DEEPEN.
THIS BRING A RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH AND AN INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING MONDAY BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMING WITH HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY
IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE LOWER 40S FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE RISK OF PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF MONDAY NIGHT AS
A NARROW AND SHALLOW SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH
AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING AS A LOW
STRATUS DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF
THE LAKES. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE
NORTHERLY FLOW DOES NOT BRING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE
LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. KJHW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 200458
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE VERY STRONG...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST LOWS FOR WATERTOWN AND LOWVILLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK HOLDING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOES NOT BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KJHW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA WIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 200458
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE VERY STRONG...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST LOWS FOR WATERTOWN AND LOWVILLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK HOLDING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOES NOT BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KJHW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA WIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 200239
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE VERY STRONG...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST LOWS FOR WATERTOWN AND LOWVILLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK HOLDING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOES NOT BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KJHW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA WIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 200239
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MINOR UPDATE THIS EVENING TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY WHERE CLEARING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE VERY STRONG...AND THUS HAVE
LOWERED FORECAST LOWS FOR WATERTOWN AND LOWVILLE INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK HOLDING MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN PARTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOES NOT BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KJHW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA WIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 192345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
645 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOES NOT BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KJHW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA WIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 192345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
645 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A LOW STRATUS DECK
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT KART AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOES NOT BRINGING ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES...RESULTING IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. KJHW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREA WIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 192055 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
REINFORCED BY A SLOWLY WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR











000
FXUS61 KBUF 192055 CCA
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
REINFORCED BY A SLOWLY WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR










000
FXUS61 KBUF 192054
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEAKENING INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
REINFORCED BY A SLOWLY WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 192054
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND
THIS WEEKEND...WHILE BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STORM SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR AREA
A ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALONG WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO
SOME SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS ONTARIO
PROVINCE AND THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY WEATHER...THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS WILL
LINGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG AND SLOWLY LOWERING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING AND THE LACK OF AN OFF-LAKE FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...THEN REMAIN
PARTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING SATURDAY...WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THE GENERAL RULE ELSEWHERE.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE LACK OF ANY REAL AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPS WILL LARGELY CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A SMALL DIURNAL
RANGE IN THE NEAR TERM. LOWS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THEN
FOLLOWING FOR SATURDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL AGAIN BE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED PARTIAL CLEARING
AND DRIER OVERALL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 10 TO
15 DEGREE RANGE TONIGHT...BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE UPPER 20S ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL EYES THEN FOCUS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAVEL DISRUPTING WINTER
STORM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES LEADING UP TO
AND FOLLOWING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THE OVERALL THEME WILL BE A
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ON CHRISTMAS EVE
WARM MOIST AIR ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE.

FINER DETAILS...ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 40S THEN REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR RISE TUESDAY NIGHT
REACHING NEAR 50 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS EVE. 90 PERCENT OF NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE ABOVE CLIMO PWATS SO THERE COULD BE SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL DURING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET OUT IN FRONT MAY BRING
SOME STRONG CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN WINDS BUT THERE IS ALSO A DOWNSLOPE
WIND THREAT AS WINDS FORCED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND TUG HILL DESCEND DOWN TO THE LAKE SHORES. FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. WITHOUT A STEEP RIDGE IN THE WEST THE SOURCE REGION OF
THIS COLD AIR WILL BE PACIFIC BASED AND NOT ARCTIC BASED SO THIS
LACK OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING A REDUCED THREAT OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS DEVELOPING AS 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY DROP TO
AROUND -8C TO -10C. THIS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH HOWEVER FOR AN OVERALL
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH A LAKE ENHANCEMENT PENDING AVAILABLE
POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE.

ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITHIN
THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MIX 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS LOW LEVEL JET
SHOWING 50-60KTS. THERE IS STILL LACK OF FINER DETAILS IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WEATHER IMPACTS DURING THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUALLY BE UPDATED AS WE GET CLOSER
AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL WANT TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THESE FORECAST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEAKENING INTO NEXT WEEK.

BEYOND CHRISTMAS...MODELS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. FURTHER OUT WE WILL BE WATCHING NEXT WEEKEND FOR
ANOTHER POSSIBLE GREAT LAKES CUTTER STORM WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
REINFORCED BY A SLOWLY WEAKENING NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...BEFORE A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM POTENTIALLY BRINGS
STRONGER WINDS TO THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 191805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES LINGER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...THANKS TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS WELL AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SOME
BREAKS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THAT THESE WILL NOT MAKE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS. THUS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. TEMPS WILL SHOW LITTLE RECOVERY...WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING
IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL BACK TO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT SW-NE TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT ALL HAVE THE FEATURE TO SOME EXTENT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIKELY
TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE
EASTERN STATES AND WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY 12Z GUIDANCE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. A
12Z CONSENSUS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT
STILL HAS A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR ONTARIO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

FOR OUR REGION...IT WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RAINY AND WINDY
DAY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STILL HAS OUR REGION PRIMARILY IN THE WARM
SECTOR UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW. CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND/OR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY BE -6 TO -8C...WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN MARGINAL 850MB TEMPERATURES...THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A PROLIFIC SNOW PRODUCER. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW AND UPSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER THIS COULD
CHANGE TOO IF MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS
IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH
THE FORECAST STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
REINFORCED BY A NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...ALSO WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 191805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
105 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGHING WILL PRODUCE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW LEFTOVER FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGING DRYING CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FURTHER OUT INTO NEXT WEEK...
IT STILL APPEARS AS IF A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY...WHICH COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON...CLOUDY SKIES LINGER ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA...THANKS TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED BENEATH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...AS WELL AS LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
TROUGHING AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SOME
BREAKS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR SLOWLY TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES...EXPECT THAT THESE WILL NOT MAKE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL
PROGRESS OWING TO THE AFOREMENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS. THUS...THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. TEMPS WILL SHOW LITTLE RECOVERY...WITH HIGHS ONLY PEAKING
IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL BACK TO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS...AND IN THE TEENS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT TRAPPED BENEATH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT THE INVERSION
WILL WEAKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGING RELAXES. THIS MAY BRING
A SHORT OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CARVING OUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL FORM A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWING A SIMILAR
PATH WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING BACK INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WITH WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AND RISING DEWPOINTS. SOME WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAINLY CONTRIBUTING TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
PROFILES MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN. IF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES A BIT
FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN OCCURS IN WARM ADVECTION...A THIN
LAYER OF WARM AIR OVERRIDING SUBFREEZING SURFACE TEMPS MAY BRING A
WINTERY MIX MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO
ALL PLAIN RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME LAKE SHORE AREAS REACHING 40
DEGREES. THE NORTH COUNTY WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER ONLY WARMING INTO
THE MID 30S. WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WILL
KEEP MILD TEMPS NOT FALLING MUCH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS MID-SECTION WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT SW-NE TOWARD OUR REGION TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM DIFFER
ON THE TIMING OF THIS...BUT ALL HAVE THE FEATURE TO SOME EXTENT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS...WITH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING...WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIKELY
TO DEVELOP MID-WEEK. A CLOSED 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL PIVOT A STRONG SHORTWAVE AROUND IT
WHICH WILL DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK UP THE
EASTERN STATES AND WRAP BACK INTO THE UPPER LOW. THIS GENERAL
SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY 12Z GUIDANCE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GGEM...WHICH IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. A
12Z CONSENSUS IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER DEVELOPING THE LOW...BUT
STILL HAS A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC OR ONTARIO ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.

FOR OUR REGION...IT WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A RAINY AND WINDY
DAY. CONSENSUS GUIDANCE STILL HAS OUR REGION PRIMARILY IN THE WARM
SECTOR UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH SNOW. CHRISTMAS DAY
LOOKS TO BE A WINDY DAY...WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCED AND/OR UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. 850MB TEMPS SHOULD
ONLY BE -6 TO -8C...WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

ALTHOUGH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT...THE SPECIFIC
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE OUR WEATHER...AND
THESE SPECIFICS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...BUT THIS
COULD EASILY CHANGE IN FUTURE RUNS. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. GIVEN MARGINAL 850MB TEMPERATURES...THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A PROLIFIC SNOW PRODUCER. THE MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW AND UPSLOPING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...MOST
LIKELY TO BE IN THE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS. HOWEVER THIS COULD
CHANGE TOO IF MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT...OR ANY...ACCUMULATION IS STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LIKELY TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS
IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE LOW ARE STILL VERY POSSIBLE WITH
THE FORECAST STILL A LONG WAYS OFF.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BY A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND
REINFORCED BY A NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
MVFR CIGS REMAINING PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND
IFR/MVFR CIGS REMAINING THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHERE STRONGER DRYING WILL
RESULT IN SKIES PARTIALLY CLEARING TONIGHT...INCLUDING AT KART
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AND THEN REMAIN SO THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AREAWIDE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY...ALSO WINDY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO AND THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









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