Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBUF 031507
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY
WEATHER. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRACK OFF THE JERSEY COAST TODAY
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
NORTH DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND VORT MAX TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE. EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG
TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL HOLD IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGHS
RANGING IN THE U50S TO ABOUT 60S. A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW
LOCAL LAKE BREEZES OFF ERIE AND ONTARIO TO KEEP THE LAKE SHORES A
BIT COOLER DOWN INTO THE L50S.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH
AS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST SHIFTS TO MICHIGAN AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST WRAPS BACK WEST ACROSS NEW
YORK. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT AS WELL AS MORE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF ANY FOG. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE L/M 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM
OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES.
MEANWHILE A WEAKER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE RAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BRINGING
A PEAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH
COOLER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAKER MID
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. FOLLOWING ANY LEFTOVER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT JUST A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
FORCING OVER OUR REGION. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ON THURSDAY THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE WITH ONLY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...AGAIN EXPECT
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH BETTER COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE LAKE MODIFIED AIR
WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING ACROSS NEW YORK. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE PLAINS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST ECMWF TRACK DOES BRING SOME RAIN INTO CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY IN
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS...WITH A NORTH WIND AGAIN
KEEPING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE COOLER.

ON SATURDAY THE EAST COAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AS AN
UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. A NARROW THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY
AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORES. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AREAS COOLER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONTINUES TO
JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION HAVE KEPT THE MENTION TO JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ON BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROBLEMATIC INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOW CIGS (LESS THAN 1000 FEET) AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES PRODUCING IFR WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LOW VFR/MVFR WILL RULE
THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF CU PRODUCING SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.

TONIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DISSIPATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ALLOW FOR VFR TO RETURN AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031037
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER.
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL LIE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS TODAY BENEATH A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH HAVE CLEARED
TO THE EAST LEAVING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THINNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRACK OFF THE
JERSEY COAST TODAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HAVE KEPT NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL HOLD IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGHS RANGING IN THE
U50S TO ABOUT 60S.
A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES OFF ERIE AND
ONTARIO TO KEEP THE LAKE SHORES A BIT COOLER DOWN INTO THE L50S.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH
AS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST SHIFTS TO MICHIGAN AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST WRAPS BACK WEST ACROSS NEW
YORK. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT AS WELL AS MORE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF ANY FOG. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE L/M 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM
OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES.
MEANWHILE A WEAKER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE RAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BRINGING
A PEAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH
COOLER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAKER MID
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. FOLLOWING ANY LEFTOVER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT JUST A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
FORCING OVER OUR REGION. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ON THURSDAY THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE WITH ONLY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...AGAIN EXPECT
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH BETTER COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE LAKE MODIFIED AIR
WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING ACROSS NEW YORK. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE PLAINS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST ECMWF TRACK DOES BRING SOME RAIN INTO CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY IN
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS...WITH A NORTH WIND AGAIN
KEEPING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE COOLER.

ON SATURDAY THE EAST COAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AS AN
UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. A NARROW THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY
AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORES. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AREAS COOLER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONTINUES TO
JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION HAVE KEPT THE MENTION TO JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ON BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KBUF/KIAG NEAR 11Z THIS MORNING UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IFR/MVFR IS FOUND AT KJHW/KART/KROC
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR AT THESE
SITES BY 13/14Z.

AFTER THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE FOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MOST SITES
TONIGHT BUT LAMP GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR IFR VIS AGAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOTIER AND AT KART WHICH WAS INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031037
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
637 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER.
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL LIE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS TODAY BENEATH A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE
HIGHER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH HAVE CLEARED
TO THE EAST LEAVING PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THINNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRACK OFF THE
JERSEY COAST TODAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
HAVE KEPT NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE.
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB WILL HOLD IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGHS RANGING IN THE
U50S TO ABOUT 60S.
A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES OFF ERIE AND
ONTARIO TO KEEP THE LAKE SHORES A BIT COOLER DOWN INTO THE L50S.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH
AS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST SHIFTS TO MICHIGAN AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST WRAPS BACK WEST ACROSS NEW
YORK. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT AS WELL AS MORE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF ANY FOG. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE L/M 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM
OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES.
MEANWHILE A WEAKER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE RAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BRINGING
A PEAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH
COOLER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAKER MID
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. FOLLOWING ANY LEFTOVER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT JUST A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
FORCING OVER OUR REGION. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ON THURSDAY THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE WITH ONLY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...AGAIN EXPECT
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH BETTER COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE LAKE MODIFIED AIR
WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING ACROSS NEW YORK. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE PLAINS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST ECMWF TRACK DOES BRING SOME RAIN INTO CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY IN
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS...WITH A NORTH WIND AGAIN
KEEPING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE COOLER.

ON SATURDAY THE EAST COAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AS AN
UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. A NARROW THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY
AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORES. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AREAS COOLER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONTINUES TO
JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION HAVE KEPT THE MENTION TO JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ON BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KBUF/KIAG NEAR 11Z THIS MORNING UNDER
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IFR/MVFR IS FOUND AT KJHW/KART/KROC
IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT FOG TO CLEAR AT THESE
SITES BY 13/14Z.

AFTER THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE FOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MOST SITES
TONIGHT BUT LAMP GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR IFR VIS AGAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOTIER AND AT KART WHICH WAS INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030914
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
514 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY PROVIDING THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER.
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL LIE SANDWICHED BETWEEN WEATHER
SYSTEMS TODAY BENEATH A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE SURFACE
MAP THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
TO OUR SOUTH WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH HAVE CLEARED TO THE
EAST WITH JUST SOME LIMITED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
THE PATCHY FOG AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY WAY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE U30S/40S THIS MORNING.

AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT ANY LINGERING FOG TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE LEAVING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRACK OFF THE JERSEY COAST
TODAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
OUR NORTH DIPPING SOUTH INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. HAVE KEPT NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY EXCEPT FOR A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX TRACKS OVER LAKE ERIE. TEMPERATURES AT
850MB WILL HOLD IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE HIGHS RANGING IN THE U50S TO ABOUT 60S.
A LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL ALLOW LOCAL LAKE BREEZES OFF ERIE AND
ONTARIO TO KEEP THE LAKE SHORES A BIT COOLER DOWN INTO THE L50S.

TONIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND NORTH
AS THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST SHIFTS TO MICHIGAN AND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST WRAPS BACK WEST ACROSS NEW
YORK. HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TOWARD THE TUG HILL WHERE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH TRACKING OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO NOT BE AS COOL TONIGHT AS WELL AS MORE LIMITED
COVERAGE OF ANY FOG. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE L/M 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY A DEEP TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH THE STRONGEST PIECE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM
OF A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES.
MEANWHILE A WEAKER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MICHIGAN
AND OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO CENTRAL NY AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE. THE RAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY BRINGING
A PEAK IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SPOTTY MORNING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID
60S. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH
COOLER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MAIN MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LEAVING BEHIND A WEAKER MID
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. FOLLOWING ANY LEFTOVER
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING...EXPECT JUST A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
FORCING OVER OUR REGION. LOWS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER...WITH MID 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

ON THURSDAY THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE WITH ONLY WEAK AND
DISORGANIZED SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...AGAIN EXPECT
RAIN COVERAGE TO BE TIED TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WITH BETTER COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE LAKE MODIFIED AIR
WILL TEMPER INSTABILITY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...AND NORTHEAST FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO MUCH COOLER.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH
WEAKENING ACROSS NEW YORK. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE PLAINS LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE MAJORITY OF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EAST OF OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST ECMWF TRACK DOES BRING SOME RAIN INTO CENTRAL
NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUITY WITH DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER NICELY FRIDAY IN
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL LOW. EXPECT
HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S IN MANY AREAS...WITH A NORTH WIND AGAIN
KEEPING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE COOLER.

ON SATURDAY THE EAST COAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST AS AN
UPSTREAM KICKER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. A NARROW THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY
AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM
THE LAKESHORES. AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST BREEZE WILL KEEP THE BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN AREAS COOLER.

A POTENT COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING CONTINUES TO
JUSTIFY LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A
CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT AS WELL...BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DESTABILIZATION HAVE KEPT THE MENTION TO JUST
SHOWERS FOR NOW.  BEHIND THE COLD FRONT A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 0C ON BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS RUNS. THE DEEP TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN IN THE 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO A LITTLE CLOSER TO EARLY MAY NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KBUF/KIAG THIS MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
IFR OR LOWER IS FOUND AT KJHW/KART/KROC IN LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
DENSE FOG. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH IS HANDLING THE
CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO LINGER AT THESE
SITES THROUGH 13/14Z.

AFTER THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE FOR THE
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MOST SITES
TONIGHT BUT LAMP GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR IFR VIS AGAIN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOTIER AND AT KART WHICH WAS INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE
ACTION. THE WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK BUT WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER THAT IS NOW
RETREATING TO THE EAST AT 06Z. BENEATH THIS DECK OF CLOUDS,
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WITH CLEARING NOW OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

AFTER SUNRISE...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE
FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER THAN TO
INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOWER LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WITH IFR OR LOWER AT KJHW/KART IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH IS
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
LINGER AT KART THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH IFR CIGS FOR KJHW TIL ABOUT
11/12Z.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MOST SITES TONIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A CHANCE FOR IFR VIS AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOTIER
AND AT KART WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION. THE WEATHER
PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK BUT WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER. A RETURN TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER THAT IS NOW
RETREATING TO THE EAST AT 06Z. BENEATH THIS DECK OF CLOUDS,
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
WITH CLEARING NOW OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO INCREASED RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

AFTER SUNRISE...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE
FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER THAN TO
INTRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOWER LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS
PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER
CLEARING SKIES WITH IFR OR LOWER AT KJHW/KART IN LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH IS
HANDLING THE CURRENT SITUATION VERY WELL. EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
LINGER AT KART THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH IFR CIGS FOR KJHW TIL ABOUT
11/12Z.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. VFR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR MOST SITES TONIGHT. LAMP GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A CHANCE FOR IFR VIS AGAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOTIER
AND AT KART WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION. THE WEATHER
PATTERN AGAIN TURNS UNSETTLED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK BUT WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...RSH/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030240
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN TIER AND PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES
WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FRESH ROUND OF
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FRESH ROUND OF
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
552 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVED ACROSS THE STATE EARLIER TODAY...
AND THIS FEATURE HELPED TO GENERATE A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF SOAKING RAIN.
WHILE THAT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING AWAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...
A SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
AND A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ARND 5K FT WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IF THERE WERE SOME CLEARING...IT WOULD
LIKELY BE VERY TEMPORARY AS RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH A MOIST SFC
WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW CLOUDS. LOCALIZED UPSLOPE
FLOW WOULD ALSO FAVOR MORE CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST DRIER AIR IN THE
MID LEVEL WOULD KEEP THE NIGHT PCPN FREE. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SRN TIER AND EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE FR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE IFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

AS WE PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT...THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS...ALTHOUGH ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OR
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A FRESH ROUND OF
STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CIGS.

ON TUESDAY...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ANY
IFR/MVFR CIGS DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/RSH
NEAR TERM...AR/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...AR/RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
538 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES AND SURFACE HIGHS/LOWS... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR DELMARVA ON FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN...DRIFT
OFFSHORE OR A LITTLE NORTH ALONG THE COAST...THEN BY EARLY SUNDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BE EJECTED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM BY AN
APPROACHING AND STRONGER UPPER WAVE. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT ONLY THE COASTAL REGION FROM
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO NEW ENGLAND...AND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE
EAST TO HAVE NO EFFECT ON WESTERN OR NORTHERN NY.

UPPER RIDGING BETWEEN THE COASTAL CUTOFF AND THE MORE NORTHERN
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY...BUT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRETCHED AND
PHASING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES...WILL STILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE BUT
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL TRAIL THE FRONT AND IMPLIES SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUS WILL EXPECT CLEARING
SKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE NEW WORKWEEK.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE RATHER MILD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH MID 60S ON FRIDAY AND UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY APPEAR TO BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021848
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021848
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
248 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. GENERALLY...MOST LOCATIONS HAE REPORTED ANYWHERE
FROM A LITTLE OVER A THIRD OF AN INCH UP TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A FEW MORE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES
HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS.
WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021838
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
238 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH OVERCAST SKIES HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL
BE A RATHER POTENT UPPER PV ANOMALY FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH COMPACT UPPER JET STREAK/UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF THE
ABOVE AND SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL SUPPORTS INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND INITIALLY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYERS. HOWEVER GIVEN DYNAMICS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUSPECT
THAT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY.

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE OVERHEAD AND STRONGEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
SETTING UP ACROSS REGION. BASED ON TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS A BIT BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABLY
REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021834
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
234 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
PROVIDING THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. MORE UNSETTLE
WEATHER STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BEGINNING TO EXITING THE NORTH
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN
ACROSS THE REGION IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY
LATER TONIGHT. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO END IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH OVERCAST SKIES HANGING AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. WITH THIS COOL FLOW IT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. THE CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD WILL THIN TO A DEGREE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IN SOME LOCATIONS AS A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SPREADS SOUTH OF THE LAKES. OVERNIGHT...DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ALONG A STALL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BOARDER. THESE FEATURES ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT OTHER TO INTRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE BEST SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
ADDITIONALLY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
LIKELY KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOWER
LAKES WITH DRY COOL WEATHER CONTINUING WITH TEMPS PEAKING IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE HAS LEFT
KBUF/KIAG/KROC WITH IFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
AT KJHW.

ALTHOUGH SLOW...EXPECT IMPROVING CIGS FOR KBUF/KIAG AND
KROC AS SOME DRIER AIR HELPS TO DIMINISH THE LOW CLOUD DECK. FOR
KJHW...WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND CONTINUED NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IT WILL BE UNLIKELY THAT
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE ALL THAT MUCH UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
AND ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.

FURTHER EAST...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KART WITH AN OCCASIONAL
PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION THROUGH 19Z.
AFTER 19Z...KART SHOULD EXPERIENCE IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS AS THE
SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE VFR AT MOST TAF SITES(KBUF/KIAG/KROC AND KART).
HOWEVER...WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE PRESENT AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
SFC FLOW THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHER TIER MAY HAVE ISSUES WITH
LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE VFR AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND PROVIDE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION ON BOTH
LAKES TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1131 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS SYSTEM HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS THE RAIN
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 2PM AND 3PM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH A MAJORITY
TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL
ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY(KART)LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER TORONTO CANADA WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS AND ALSO LOWER VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EXPECT GRADUAL BUT
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY....SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXPECT
SLOW BUT IMPROVING CIGS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...AR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR/SMITH
MARINE...AR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021531
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1131 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHICH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE ONTARIO. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THIS SYSTEM HAVE RANGED BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY DEPARTS THE RAIN
SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BETWEEN 2PM AND 3PM. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND THROUGH A MAJORITY
TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL
ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY(KART)LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
SHORTWAVE OVER TORONTO CANADA WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
IFR CIGS AND ALSO LOWER VSBYS IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST EXPECT GRADUAL BUT
IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AT KBUF/KIAG/KROC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY....SOME DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIR THERE STILL REMAINS A POTENTIAL
FOR REDUCED CIGS AND VSBYS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW.

OTHERWISE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOWER LAKES EXPECT
SLOW BUT IMPROVING CIGS AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...AR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...AR/SMITH
MARINE...AR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. AFTER A DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING LIGHT AND MODERATE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS
ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE
ERIE. HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE THREAT IS
LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE NY STATE LINE NEAR 11Z. MOST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL RUN BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A THIRD OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE ACCOMPANYING THE FOG.

RAIN SHOULD BE CLEARING EAST OF WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN CLEARING
EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THE EVENING RUSH. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD
HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS COOL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE
U40S/L50S FOR MOST TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY IFR/MVFR
VSBYS IN FOG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW
INVERSION. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD
CENTRAL NEW YORK NEAR 11Z. HAVE REMOVED VCTS FROM ALL TAFS BASED ON
CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TO SOUTH OF THE NY/PA BORDER. VISIBILITIES
MAY TEMPO TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

AS THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST OF WNY AROUND LUNCH TIME...CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO THE LOW MVFR RANGE THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
ONLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. IFR WILL HOLD LONGEST AT KJHW. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL
LIFT CIGS TO VFR AT ALL SITES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP
RUN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS
RAIN...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020854
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
454 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION /PER 00Z BUF RAOB/ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. RADARS ARE SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO...NW PA AND
INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE.

HAVE UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON RADAR
EXTRAPOLATION AND 00Z MESO-MODELS. EXPECT AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO
BUFFALO 10-11Z...ROCHESTER 11-12Z AND WATERTOWN 13-14Z. THIS TIMING
COULD IMPACT MORNING COMMUTES WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. ANY EMBEDDED
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE CURRENT
INVERSION AND TRACKING NORTHEAST AS THE LOW TRACK ALONG A 925-850MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE. 00Z KBUF SOUNDING SHOWED 55KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
7+C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
STORMS AS THEY TRACK ACROSS PA AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEW YORK. BEING
OF AN ELEVATED NATURE...ONLY A VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE
IMPACTS. 00Z 4KM NAM DID SHOW SOME EVIDENCE OF MID LEVEL ROTATION
TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NEAR 12Z SO WILL CERTAINLY
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADAR.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE CLEARING EAST OF WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THE EVENING RUSH. OVERCAST
SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN RIDGED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MAINLY DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL SLIP BACK INTO THE U30S/L40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK AS THE REGION WILL BE CAUGHT IN A RELATIVE LULL IN BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGING IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
WITH JUST PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 60 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ALONG AND WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM THE LAKES. WITH 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES FALLING TO -8C/KM AND MUCAPES POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 250-
500 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S WITH 40S ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE
BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PLOWING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE PIEDMONT BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW YORK
STATE. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE ECMWF
HINTING AT MORE NORTHERLY 850MB FLOW VS THE EASTERLY FLOW OF THE
GFS...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE GREATER SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. BEST SHOWER CHANCES ON THURSDAY WILL
BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NY CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE PASSING
UPPER LOW AND WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS HERE WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
SHALLOWER LAPSE RATES AND GREATER STABILITY SHOULD RULE OUT ANY
THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY/SHOWERY CONDITIONS...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S...THOUGH A FEW AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO MAY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 40S...RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY EDGE UP THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE A PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
PROGGED TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES TO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON FRIDAY...THIS IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. IN
REALITY...AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW STAYS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS
CURRENTLY PROGGED...IT SHOULD BE A DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY
WE HAVE SEEN IN A WHILE AS AN EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND HIGHER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FLIRT WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
MANY AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOK
TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW INVERSION.
SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER 11-14Z FOR WNY BUT AT THE COST OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIER. HAVE REMOVED VCTS
FROM ALL TAFS BUT KJHW BASED ON CONVECTION BEING LIMITED TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD KEEP HIGHER
WINDS /20-30KTS/ ABOVE THE SURFACE AND TOO LOW FOR A LLWS THREAT.
VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPO TO IFR WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED
WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST OF WNY AROUND LUNCH TIME...LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ONLY IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IFR WILL HOLD LONGEST AT
KJHW. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WILL LIFT CIGS TO VFR AT ALL
SITES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP RUN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THESE STORMS...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020636
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
236 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AFTER A
DRY DAY ON TUESDAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION /PER 00Z BUF RAOB/ EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. RADARS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY RETURNS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT 06Z BUT KROC IS REPORTING SOME DRIZZLE IN A NORTH
FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO. LOOKING SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK...RADARS AND
LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORKS ARE SHOWING A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO. THIS
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS OHIO
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WESTERN
LAKE ERIE.

HAVE UPDATED THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS WITH A
CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON RADAR EXTRAPOLATION
AND 00Z MESO-MODELS. EXPECT AN ARRIVAL TIME INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR 9-11Z THEN MOVING INTO BUFFALO 10-12Z...ROCHESTER
12-13Z AND WATERTOWN 15-16Z. THIS TIMING COULD IMPACT MORNING
COMMUTES WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE CURRENT INVERSION AND TRACKING
NORTHEAST AS THE LOW TRACK ALONG A 925-850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. 00Z
KBUF SOUNDING SHOWED 55KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 7+C/KM MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE STORMS AS THEY
TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BEING OF AN ELEVATED NATURE...ONLY A
VERY LOW CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE IMPACTS. 00Z 4KM NAM DID SHOW SOME
EVIDENCE OF MID LEVEL ROTATION TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR 12Z SO WILL CERTAINLY KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADAR.

SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE CLEARING EAST OF WNY NEAR LUNCHTIME THEN
CLEARING EAST OF CENTRAL NEW YORK BY THE EVENING RUSH. OVERCAST
SKIES SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS COOL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
LIMITED TO THE U40S/L50S FOR MOST TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE BY THE
TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW INVERSION.
SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER 11-14Z FOR WNY BUT AT THE COST OF
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREADING THE
REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS WITH CB IN THE TAFS AS UPSTREAM OBS AND
RADAR SHOWS CURRENT LIGHTNING SHIFTING ACROSS OHIO. THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD KEEP HIGHER WINDS /20-30KTS/ ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND TOO LOW FOR A LLWS THREAT. VISIBILITIES MAY TEMPO TO IFR
WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

AS THE STORMS SHIFT EAST OF WNY AROUND LUNCHTIME...LOW MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ONLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. IFR WILL HOLD LONGEST AT KJHW. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THIS EVENING WILL LIFT CIGS TO VFR AT ALL SITES. THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY LATEST LAMP RUN.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
NORTHEAST. BEHIND THESE STORMS...A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THE MID PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE THE COVERAGE OF AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT
SHOWERS SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE THE COVERAGE OF AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT
SHOWERS SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
832 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT SHOWERS
SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 012327
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
727 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL HAVE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. EXPECT SHOWERS
SLATED FOR LATER TONIGHT TO REDUCE THE FOG.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT IFR CEILINGS FOR  MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LIFR
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE
FINGER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 10Z AS STEADY
RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND THIN THE FOG OUT. LOW MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 012025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 012025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
425 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011954
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS WAS THE CASE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES...THE ECMWF AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT TWIN...DEEP CLOSED LOWS
WILL DEVELOP NEAR BOTH COASTS LATE IN THE WEEK...WHILE RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF THIS GENERAL PATTERN...THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT
IN THE THINKING FOR THE POSITION OF THE EAST COAST CLOSED LOW BY THE
WEEKEND.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW PUSHING THE STACKED CLOSED LOW FURTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING FROM THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY TO NOSE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE CLOSED LOW BEING SHUNTED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL FIND ITSELF BETWEEN THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST...AND EVENTUALLY A DIGGING TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. THE GENERAL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THE TWO
WILL OFFER MORE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...
AND CERTAINLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES. INSTEAD OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
MERCURY READINGS...WE SHOULD CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS FOR BOTH
DAYS OF THE WEEKEND WITH MAX`S RANGING FROM 65 TO AS HIGH AS 70 (SRN
TIER AND GEN VALLEYS).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY INTO THIS
EVENING AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIZZLE OR
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS EVENING OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY
INITIALLY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE SURFACE REFLECTION
TAKES SHAPE OVERNIGHT. NEARLY ALL 12Z GUIDANCE ALONG WITH HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY RAMP UP PROBABILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE
40S OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE MONDAY WITH MOST HIGHS IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY 00Z MONDAY...THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SECOND ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DUE TO AFFECT OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL HAVE SLID EASTWARD TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...WITH
THE TRAILING EDGE OF ITS RAIN SHIELD ALREADY HAVING RECEDED INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK. THUS...EXPECT OUR AREA TO BE PRECIPITATION-FREE
BY THE TIME WE REACH SUNSET...THOUGH PLENTY OF LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN PLACE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE PLAINS.

AS MONDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER AIR
WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WHILE YET
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLES ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND
DELMARVA REGION. THIS LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD THUS REMAIN ON A FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TRACK TO KEEP ITS ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD CONFINED TO
OUR SOUTHEAST... THUS THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL
DRYING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALSO HELPING TO DRIVE THE
LIMITED CLEARING FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER INLAND...THOUGH
SKIES WILL LIKELY STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. TEMPERATURE-
WISE...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

ON TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH
THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH SLIDING EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE...AND THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY DROPPING ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA. IN BETWEEN...
OUR REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPENSATING ZONE OF RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED
FAIR/DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN SUNSHINE AS
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LINGERING LOWER CLOUD COVER. MEANWHILE... 850 MB TEMPS OF +2C TO
+4C SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WHICH
IS DEAD-ON AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE AREA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SQUEEZED
BETWEEN THE LINGERING SURFACE WAVE/FRONTAL ZONE JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST... AND THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ATTENDANT
FRONTAL SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH A NARROWING COMPENSATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE/RELATIVELY DRIER AIR REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. OVERALL PATTERN RECOGNITION AND PAST
EXPERIENCE BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE ALSO
CASTING CONSIDERABLE DOUBT UPON THE PRECIP BEING SPIT OUT BY THE
CANADIAN GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM...WHICH LOOKS PARTICULARLY
OVERDONE. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PULL POPS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT BACK INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS FOR
TEMPS...LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...OR A LITTLE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

AFTER THAT...THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DECIDED TURN TO MORE UNSETTLED AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WEATHER AS
PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION... AND BECOMES THE EASTERN COMPONENT OF A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WILL ENCOURAGE THE GRADUAL
MERGING OF THE GREAT LAKES AND COASTAL SURFACE WAVES INTO A
SINGLE...BUT ALSO RATHER BROAD AND DIFFUSE LOW THAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THE
EASTERN SEABOARD.

AS THE ABOVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE...THE COMBINATION OF THE MERGING
SURFACE FEATURES...SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH...AND SLOWLY COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC
OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN
PINNING DOWN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES
DRIVING ANY SUCH SHOWERS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE IN THIS KIND OF
PATTERN...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH
BROADBRUSH HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN FREE PERIODS.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...850 MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +2C TO +4C
RANGE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOW COOLING OF OUR
AIRMASS RESULTS IN READINGS PULLING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
FOR THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE WARM FRONT ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
TONIGHT. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIT FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING
ON THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH WAVE HEIGHT AROUND 3 FEET.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011728
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY INTO THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RETREATS...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z
4KM NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN
MCV 24 HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN
FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR/IFR FOR MOST SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TIER. UNCERTAINTY AND EXPECTED SPARSE COVERAGE HAS
PRECLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRESH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD
IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011420
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF RAIN IS NOW CLEARING THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 11Z WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION NEAR
LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN A MIX OF
LOWER END MVFR FOR MOST SITES WITH IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK THROUGH NOON WITH SOME
DRY TIME OUTSIDE OF STRAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR A STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS
MAY IMPACT KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH/TMA
MARINE...SMITH/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011056
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
656 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND
OF RAIN IS NOW CLEARING THE FAR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT 11Z WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION NEAR
LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS HAVE LOWERED TO A
MIX OF LOWER END OF MVFR FOR MOST SITES WITH IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BACK EDGE OF THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN WILL SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING WITH SOME DRY TIME OUTSIDE OF
STRAY/SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE
NY/PA BORDER AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR A STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS
MAY IMPACT KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
VCTS IN THE TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY LOWER CIGS TO IFR FOR MOST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 010855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
OCCURRING AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS NEAR ERIE AT 09Z
WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHIFTING
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 010855
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
455 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS
OCCURRING AS MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE
RAIN TO CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS FIRST ROUND OF RAIN IS NEAR ERIE AT 09Z
WHICH SHOULD REACH FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE THE SHIFTING
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR LUNCHTIME. TOTAL RAINFALL LOOKING LIKE A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE RUNNING IN THE
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOST OF DAYTIME HEATING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE M/U50S FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AFTER
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW CHANCE POPS BECAUSE WE CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SCATTERED/STRAY SHOWERS IN MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AS A SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX. HAVE INCLUDED CAT POPS
ACROSS MOST MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY ARRIVE BY 12Z MONDAY. WHILE LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH THIS SECOND WAVE OF RAIN...THE 00Z 4KM
NAM AND NSSL-WRF BOTH SHOW A SIGNATURE OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX TRACKING ALONG THE NY/PA LINE. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEATURE SUCH AS AN MCV 24
HOURS OUT BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN FOLLOWING MODEL
RUNS. TEMPS WILL AGAIN SLIP BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WORK WEEK AS A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEW YORK STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGHING
ORIENTED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY SEEING AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL SHOULD QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE SHORTWAVE
RAPIDLY TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE PICTURE...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT EVEN AS THINGS DRY OUT. THE CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT CROSSES THE AREA...AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE MAY
INTERACT WITH LIMITED LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TO SPARK A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ANY CLEAR FOCUSED LIFT...WILL STICK WITH
LOW CHANCE POPS. LESS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
850MB TEMPS SHOULD PRODUCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL RUN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S WITH READINGS AROUND 60 ION THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD YIELD
COMPARATIVELY WARMER READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA
BECOMES SHARPLY MERIDIONAL. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE ROCKIES WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE
TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN SHIELD WILL
PROCEED TO CARVE A SHARP TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERING JUST OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DEPRIVE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE...SO AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SCATTERED AT BEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING IN TERMS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF INTO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS
NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGHING IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AND A MID-LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INCREASING
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THE 00Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS COME IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE COLDEST AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL NO
LONGER APPEARS TO BE A CONCERN.

COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ENCOUNTERS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SUBSEQUENTLY LINGERS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE HEAVILY MODIFIED MARITIME
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD IN SPITE OF
THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 010628
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
228 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TONIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADARS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS OCCURRING AS
MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT
SHIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECTING THE RAIN TO CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF ON THE BACK EDGE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ONLY SLIPPING INTO THE 40S.

WHILE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH OF THE
NY/PA LINE...ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE
LIFT CONTRIBUTING TO CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MESO-MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY IN THE FORM
OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO
HIGHLIGHT A LIKELY AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TRIGGER
FOR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK LOW TRACKING TOWARD NORTHEAST PA.
BULK SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REACH 40-50KTS HERE WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MAX OUT IN THE
M/U50S FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK WITH U40S/L50S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE
CROSSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE
LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND
LARGE- SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH
IN TURN WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD A BAND OF STEADY RAIN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO THE
LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY TOWARD THE NY/PA BORDER AS
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS NEAR THE STALLED WARM FRONT. THIS MAY IMPACT
KJHW BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS IN THE
TAF.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
AGAIN LOWER CIGS TO MVFR FOR MOST WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20
KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATER THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE DAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM TONIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
         EVENING FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH/TMA
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WCH
MARINE...SMITH/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 010233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN EDGING NORTH TOWARD
WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. RAIN HAS STARTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AS OF 02Z/10PM... AND IS EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG A BUF-ROC
LINE...THEN OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT THE
ONSET OF RAIN WILL COOL THE AIR THROUGH EVAPORATION AND LOWER THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE 40S.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT A COOLER EASTERLY WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...GENERALLY 02Z-04Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO 04Z- 06Z BUF-ROC AND ABOUT 08Z FOR HE NORTH
COUNTRY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
LOWER FURTHER TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS
THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY AND DESTABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 010025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
825 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN EDGING NORTH TOWARD
WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO START ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG A
BUF-ROC LINE...AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS
AT THE ONSET OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE
40S

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT A COOLER EASTERLY WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...GENERALLY 02Z-04Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO 04Z- 06Z BUF-ROC AND ABOUT 08Z FOR HE NORTH
COUNTRY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
LOWER FURTHER TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS
THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY AND DESTABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 010025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
825 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN EDGING NORTH TOWARD
WESTERN NY THIS EVENING. EXPECT RAIN TO START ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER...AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG A
BUF-ROC LINE...AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWER DEWPOINTS
AT THE ONSET OF RAIN WILL LOWER THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE
40S

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ENCROACHING SURFACE LOW WILL BOOST TEMPS TO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN NY...BUT A COOLER EASTERLY WIND FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL HOLD HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD
AND STEADY RAIN TO THE REGION...GENERALLY 02Z-04Z ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO 04Z- 06Z BUF-ROC AND ABOUT 08Z FOR HE NORTH
COUNTRY. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND
LOWER FURTHER TO THE LOWER END OF MVFR SCALE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT IFR TO LIFR AT JHW AND ACROSS
THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
MOVES INTO WESTERN NY AND DESTABILIZES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...WILL
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR
NOW.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301932
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
332 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE
ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES...IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SHRINKING
WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG WING OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 00Z...AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE
WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGING ON THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL LIFTING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IT WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
TYPICAL TWIN CLOSED LOWS NEAR EACH COAST. FOR OUR CONCERNS...THE
DEEPLY STACKED LOW IN THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA OR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD. THIS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLES...AND IS NOW BEING ADVERTISED BY THE BULK OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NO ONE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. NOTE THAT I AM USING THE TERM PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN JUST
RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS A LITTLE `COLDER` WITH ITS GENERAL SOLUTION
THAN ITS NORTH AMERICAN COUNTERPART (GFS). THIS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY NIGHT(S) WHEN H85 TEMPS OVER OUR REGION ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO ZERO (C). IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO
ENVISION SOME WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THIS SOLUTION.
THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS SUCH
ANOMALOUS MAY SNOWFALL...SO IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS
DEVELOPS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WILL NOT ACTUALLY
INTRODUCE SNOW TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT RATHER JUST BRING
IT UP IN THIS DISCUSSION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301852
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
252 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A SOLID RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
HEADING INTO TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR LOOP DISPLAYING A CLEAR SIGNAL OF
DEEP LAYER NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT LODGED WITHIN THE
ATTENDANT STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES...IMMEDIATELY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW/HEIGHT FALLS NOW LIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

RAPID ADVANCEMENT OF HIGH CLOUD COMBINED WITH PESKY LINGERING
STRATUS WILL KEEP SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SHRINKING
WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AXIS LOCKED ALONG AN EMERGING STRONG WING OF
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
ADVANCE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AFTER 00Z...AHEAD OF ADVANCING SURFACE
WARM FRONT. ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS COMING FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING IMPINGING ON THE REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF RAINFALL LIFTING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HINTING AT DIMINISHING STABILITY BEHIND THE
NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH A POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOOKING
AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF A HALF INCH CERTAINLY IN PLAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY EVENING...THE INITIAL SURFACE WAVE WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SOME
LINGERING RAIN WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY... WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND MUCH WEAKER LARGE-
SCALE LIFT...AND THUS IN A RELATIVE LULL IN THE PRECIP WITH JUST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND INITIALLY.

ALL OF THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH...AS
ANOTHER VIGOROUS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
QUICKLY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NEW YORK STATE...WITH THIS FEATURE ULTIMATELY ABSORBING THE
INITIAL LOW AND REACHING CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND AN ATTENDANT IMPRESSIVE LOW-MID LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT BACK ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH IN TURN WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD FROM LOW LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL.

AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SECOND SURFACE
LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES RAPIDLY BUILDING
EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION IN THEIR WAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE DAY QUICKLY TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL MANAGE TO HANG ON
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS STATED...CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART GIVEN BOTH FAIRLY PLENTIFUL LINGERING
MOISTURE AND A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE ONLY RETURNING TO AREAS FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.

USING A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS A GUIDE...IT APPEARS THAT OUR
REGION WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ANOTHER ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL OUT OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. AS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP EXPECTED
SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALLER DIURNAL RANGE IN READINGS THAN WHAT
MIGHT BE TYPICALLY EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED DIRECTLY
UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA REGION...AND A
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLIDING
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND ZONE OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD LARGELY TEND KEEP OUR
REGION QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY... THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WERE THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ITS NORTHERN FRINGES COULD
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FOR AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ON
TUESDAY.

FINALLY...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DEEPENING
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH ITS
ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE WAVE AND TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION AND GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED SYSTEM SITUATED
ALONG/NEAR THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR AREA...THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURNING TO OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS
FOR OUR REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND
THIS WILL EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...THEN THE
FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM SYSTEM
LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW WILL STALL OR SLOWLY
RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN LOCK ONTO MORE
DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301730
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES THERE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE WIND COMPONENT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES
IN CANADIAN WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
NOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK ACROSS THE LAKES.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA/WOOD





000
FXUS61 KBUF 301730
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER
OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE COMING
WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN END OF HUDSON BAY WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORRIDOR.
UNFORTUNATELY A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
ATLANTIC ON EASTERLY 850-925MB FLOW REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THIS
HIGH AND IS ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF NEW YORK STATE AND PENNSYLVANIA.
WHILE THIS MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX OUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WHICH IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. SKIES THERE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF DEPRESSING
TEMPERATURES AND HAVE GONE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WHERE HIGHS WILL LIMP INTO THE MID 50S. EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO THE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.

EXPECT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING TO THE DOORSTEP OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SOLID
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A 30KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
PRODUCE A ZONE OF FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS EMBEDDED THEREIN AS IT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MANY
AREAS FORECAST TO RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
CLOUDS/RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY
TIMEFRAME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY 00Z MODELS TO TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. A
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE WORKING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK
SUNDAY MORNING FORCED BY LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HAVE BUMP
POPS UP TO 100 PERCENT ALONG THIS EAST/NORTHEAST ADVANCING BOUNDARY.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SPREAD NORTH OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S WITH SOME SUN INCREASING INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE NY/PA STATE LINE. HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS
WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SYNOPTIC SCALE
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING AND OCCLUDING LOW. SURFACE HIGHS
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TOWARD THE PA LINE RUNNING NEAR OR ABOVE 60.

THE OCCLUDED UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED VORT MAX WILL SHIFT
OVER NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LIKELY PERIOD OF
RAIN/SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT A CHANCE OF WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON MONDAY
TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
JET EXITS INTO NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 40S
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS THEN WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE L/M
50S ON MONDAY IN COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW WHERE 850MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND 0C. RIDGING FROM EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY PROVIDING FOR DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL PUSH
A LITTLE LOWER IN THE COOL AND DRY AIR MONDAY NIGHT THEN WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF A STORM SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP BOOST HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE U50S/L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COOLER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE EAST COAST. 00Z MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES BY LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR WARM WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. H85 TEMPS FOR OUR
REGION WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS...AND THIS WILL
EQUATE TO TEMPERATURES THAT WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL
EARLY MAY VALUES.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF SHOW
SEVERAL WET PERIODS THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WILL ALL BE LED IN BY A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION...THEN THE FRONT WILL BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A COMPLEX
COASTAL STORM SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH MODELS SHOW
WILL STALL OR SLOWLY RETROGRADE WEST DUE TO A BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. TIMING AND MORE SPECIFIC LOCATION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO BROAD BRUSH
CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FLAVOR UNTIL MESO-MODELS CAN
LOCK ONTO MORE DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LAYER OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KIAG/KBUF/KROC AND KART
AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 22Z ONWARDS
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. ANY IMPROVEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN WORKS ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LIKELY. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TRACKS TOWARDS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHENS TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS...WAVES WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET ON THE WEST END
OF LAKE ONTARIO SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER THE WIND COMPONENT IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE EASTERLY ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHEST WAVES
IN CANADIAN WATERS AND WILL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
NOW.

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LOW AND THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO THE EAST END OF LAKE
ERIE SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAVES DIMINISH MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK ACROSS THE LAKES.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN WAVES TO 4 FEET ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS ON THAT LAKE DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT. A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...RSH/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA/WOOD





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities