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000
FXUS61 KBUF 311139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE HURON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY RAIN SHOWERS
BLOSSOMING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH ACTIVITY EXPANDING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY. COOL AIR ALOFT OVER THE
WARMER LAKES IS BRINGING ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS MORNING TO ENHANCE
THESE SHOWERS OVER THE WATER BODIES. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN STRATUS WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE.
THIS WILL KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK RATHER CLOUDY...WHILE A FEW BREAKS
ARE POSSIBLE TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE 1.5 PV
SURFACE...A SPLIT IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS SEEN...WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN US...WHILE A DOWNWARD INTRUSION
OF ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAK LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENING. TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CENTER THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE WILL FIND LIKELY SHOWERS REACHING WNY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST...WHICH WILL
LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR SHOWERS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
LARGELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
THIS SECONDARY...DEEPENING ATLANTIC COASTLINE LOW WILL FOCUS LOW
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALOFT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL FALLING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS LIQUID.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER THICK THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SMALL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BEST THEIR MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A
FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WARMEST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TO
THE SW OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE YET STILL WARM
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 12Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.
WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE A DECK OF STRATUS HAS
LOWERED TO MVFR OVER THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
FARTHER NORTHWARD...AND DAYTIME MIXING INCREASES.

WILL CONTINUE THE VCSH AND ADD -DZ TO THE KBUF/KIAG TAFS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING FOR THESE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH SHOWERS ENDING AS THEY LIFT NORTHWARD.

LATER IN THE DAY THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE WARM FRONT`S PARENT LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PLACED IN THESE TAFS...WHILE
HOLDING JUST A VCSH FOR THE KART TERMINAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM AND INTENSIFY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...COMBINED
WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FARTHER WESTWARD.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
MAY ALSO BRING IFR CIGS FOR KROC...IN ADDITION TO KIAG AND KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKES.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THIS WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
FIRST ON LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE
ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310833
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
433 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DISPLAYS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS BLOSSOMING THIS MORNING OVER LAKE ERIE...WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY EXPANDING TOWARDS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY. COOL AIR ALOFT OVER THE WARMER LAKES IS BRINGING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY THIS MORNING TO ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS OVER THE WATER
BODIES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN STRATUS WHILE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO INCREASE. THIS WILL
KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK RATHER CLOUDY...WHILE A FEW BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE TO AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BASE OF A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DROP
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN US BY SATURDAY MORNING. ON THE 1.5 PV
SURFACE...A SPLIT IN THIS SHORTWAVE IS SEEN...WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN EASTERN US...WHILE A DOWNWARD INTRUSION
OF ENERGY LINGERS OVER THE CANADIAN NIAGARA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE THE SURFACE LOW
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH THE WEAK LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE WESTERN HALF
OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS
FORMS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE OVERNIGHT...WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENING. TRACKING THE SURFACE LOW...WHICH WILL CENTER THE BETTER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WE WILL FIND LIKELY SHOWERS REACHING WNY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS REMAINING
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. TOWARDS THE EAST...WHICH WILL
LARGELY REMAIN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCES OF THE SURFACE LOW TODAY...
LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FOR SHOWERS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY
LARGELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL PV INTRUSION/ENERGY ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVERNIGHT. A STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
THIS SECONDARY...DEEPENING ATLANTIC COASTLINE LOW WILL FOCUS LOW
LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN END OF THE
LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH LIFT ALOFT WILL BRING CATEGORICAL LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TOWARDS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK ZONES LATER OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALL FALLING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WILL REMAIN AS LIQUID.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN RATHER THICK THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING SUN ANGLE WILL PROVIDE FOR A SMALL DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY BEST THEIR MORNING
TEMPERATURES BY 5-10 DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A
FEW 50S ARE POSSIBLE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP OFF
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WARMEST AREAS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE TO
THE SW OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE YET STILL WARM
LAKE ONTARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF CHILLY AND WET AS A COMPLEX LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON OUR REGION WITH AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL DRIVE OUR
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
COOL FROM WEST TO EAST. THE NAM/SREF TEND TO BE WARMER THAN GFS/RGEM
GUIDANCE...BUT USING A CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
-3C TO -5C SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO MIX
WITH SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW
700MB...PRIMARILY FROM UPSLOPING AND MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WITH
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ANY ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY WOULD BE LIGHT AND CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM
CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL...WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE KEEPING THE SURFACE TO
700MB COLUMN MOIST. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HINDER SNOW
WITH MOST OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE DRY. IT MAY BE JUST COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS...OR PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WHERE THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHTLY LONGER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL LOW. AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN...LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT ON SUNDAY...EVOLVING INTO
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS. IT STILL APPEARS ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A FEW ICY SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT IF THERE ARE ANY WET SPOTS
FROM PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING FAIR
WEATHER AND GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD LAST MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS WITH COOL AIR ALOFT RESULTING IN LAKE
ENHANCED STRATUS. SOME BREAKS OF SUN ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE LAKES AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL CHILLY...ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. FLOW BACKING TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY
AND BY TUESDAY MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS
A 60 DEGREE READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY
WARMER SPOTS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN WESTERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND RETURN
FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

00Z/12Z MODEL ECMWF/GFS/GGEM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT FOR THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...WITH SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPING A
FRONTAL WAVE WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE
PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND USE A MULTI-MODEL
BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A WEALTH OF STRATUS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN INTO
HIGH END MVFR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND ALSO LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING OF CIGS. WILL PLACE A VCSH IN THE KBUF/KIAG
TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THESE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

LATER IN THE DAY THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE WARM FRONT`S PARENT LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PLACED IN THESE TAFS...WHILE
HOLDING JUST A VCSH FOR THE KART TERMINAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM AND INTENSIFY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...COMBINED
WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FARTHER WESTWARD.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
MAY ALSO BRING IFR CIGS FOR KROC...IN ADDITION TO KIAG AND KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
END OF LAKE ERIE TODAY WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO THE LAKES.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE
THIS WEEKEND...AND NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THIS LOW WILL INCREASE
FIRST ON LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY MORNING ON LAKE
ERIE.

IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 4 TO 7 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHILE WAVES WILL BE GREATEST ON THE
WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
ERIE...HAVE ISSUED SCA FOR THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE AS WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD TOP SCA
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY TO LATER THIS
WEEKEND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SCA CONDITIONS
TO THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310604
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO TODAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DRAWS CLOSER TOWARDS LAKE ERIE. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EARLY MORNING IS ALLOWING FOR
PLENTY OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO IS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EARLY MORNING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NIGHT NEAR LAKE ERIE AND ALSO ONTARIO...WITH
LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS
YIELDING THESE RAIN SHOWERS. FARTHER INLAND WITH LESS LIFT...EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL
TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE
HILLS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 06Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH A WEALTH OF STRATUS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN INTO
HIGH END MVFR THIS MORNING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE NEAR LAKE
ERIE AND ALSO LAKE ONTARIO WHERE A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE VICINITY OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY YIELD A FEW SHOWERS IN
ADDITION TO THE LOWERING OF CIGS. WILL PLACE A VCSH IN THE KBUF/KIAG
TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THESE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

LATER IN THE DAY THESE RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE WARM FRONT`S PARENT LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE ERIE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PLACED IN THESE TAFS...WHILE
HOLDING JUST A VCSH FOR THE KART TERMINAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SETTLE
TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW PRESSURE OVER
LAKE ERIE WILL REFORM AND INTENSIFY EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW SURFACE PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION...COMBINED
WITH THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT...AGAIN MOST LIKELY FARTHER WESTWARD.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. COOLER AIR FLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY FORM MVFR AND LATER
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. CLIMATOLOGY PLACES IFR AT BETTER
THAN 50 PERCENT FOR KJHW...WHILE THE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
MAY ALSO BRING IFR CIGS FOR KROC...IN ADDITION TO KIAG AND KBUF.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND
FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310220
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A WEALTH OF STRATUS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BENEATH AN INCREASING DECK OF HIGH CIRRUS
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN
THESE AREAS AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS APPROACHING OUR REGION YET...SO ANY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN A WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LOCKED IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS
NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL
TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE
HILLS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE. OVERNIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER LAKES.
THE ADDED WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION...BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR GIVEN THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

ON FRIDAY A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR
CIGS EARLY SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DURING
THE AFTERNOON WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND LAKE ERIE. CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FROM AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRODUCE MORE NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP
TO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 302344
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES WHERE A SUCKER HOLE WILL GIVE A FEW HOURS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BEFORE FILLING BACK IN. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING. NOTE THAT BOTH THE KBUF AND KTYX RADARS SHOW WIDESPREAD
WEAK RADAR RETURNS SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT THESE ARE NOT
METEOROLOGICAL. IT APPEARS TO BE BIOLOGICAL BASED ON DUAL-POL RADAR
CHARACTERISTICS...PROBABLY MIGRATING WATERFOWL.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SET TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE WITH PLENTY
OF CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
AS WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS
THE ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PROVINCE.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NY. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL
TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. THE DIURNAL RANGE
IN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 10 DEGREES...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S IN THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE
HILLS FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DECK OF CLOUDS IN THE
3500-5000 FOOT RANGE. OVERNIGHT WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE
SOMEWHAT AS AN ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER LAKES.
THE ADDED WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING
SHOULD SUPPORT CIGS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN MANY AREAS. A
FEW LIGHT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE AND
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION...BUT VSBY
SHOULD REMAIN VFR GIVEN THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS
ACTIVITY.

ON FRIDAY A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAINLY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. MVFR
CIGS EARLY SHOULD TREND TO MAINLY VFR BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. DURING
THE AFTERNOON WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND LAKE ERIE. CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT FROM AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD PRODUCE MORE NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP
TO MVFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS...WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARD EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH MVFR DETERIORATING TO IFR.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EAST
HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 301957
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
357 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED AREAS
OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USHERING
IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...IS PROMOTING A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SET TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE WITH A SOUTHERLY FETCH...AND WE EXPECT
TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE LESS THAN 10 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF MVFR
THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL LIKELY SEE
FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THESE SITES SHOULD FAVOR VFR.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...AND WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH WINDS OVER 20KTS COMMON ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET...ESPICALLY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LOZ030-042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED AREAS
OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USHERING
IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE...IS PROMOTING A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SET TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA IS PUSHING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE WITH A SOUTHERLY FETCH...AND WE EXPECT
TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY MORNING.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SPLITTING SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN
VORTICITY MAX DIGGING INTO THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING OUR AREA UNDER
WEAK / SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. WE WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DECENT MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. OUR BEST CHANCE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF
WELL-DEFINED FORCING...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...WITH PROGRESSIVELY LESS RAINFALL TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY
DROPPING OFF EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND THE ROCHESTER AREA.

TEMPERATURE VARIANCE WILL BE VERY LOW BETWEEN TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AS CLOUD COVER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM RISING MUCH DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE LESS THAN 10 DEGREES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
30S AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
IT WILL BE A WET START TO THE WEEKEND...AT LEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK AND PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE
WAKE OF A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OROGRAPHIC LIFT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED LIFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN THE -2C TO -4C
RANGE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ADD LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE MIX...IT WILL NOT LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH TO FACILITATE A
TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. RATHER...WESTERN NEW YORK CAN EXPECT A
GENERAL LIGHT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY UNDER
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW...AND AS SUCH ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE AND MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY
MILD MARITIME AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THAT WILL KEEP LOWS FROM
DROPPING OUT OF THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
PLAINS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.

THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE COMBINATION OF
NIGHTFALL AND THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AIR. HOWEVER THE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT WILL BE THE DRY AIR ALOFT THAT WILL BE ACCOMPANYING THIS
COLD PUSH. AS THE AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DRIES OUT...THERE
IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE ANY UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS PETER OUT INTO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR POSSIBLY JUST
LAKE-INDUCED STRATUS WITH NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD FIZZLE OUT SUNDAY MORNING
AS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL OVERCOME ANY LAKE
ENHANCEMENT...THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO
GO AROUND ON WHAT WILL OTHERWISE BE A DRY AND CHILLY DAY WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE LAKES AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY
STAY LOCKED IN THE UPPER 30S. WE CAN THEN EXPECT ONE MORE NIGHT OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT
WEEK

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A COOL AND SHOWER WEEKEND...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
WILL TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND MORE MILD REGIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE
NEW WEEK. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF STEEP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL
BE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...PUSHING
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK MONDAY AND BY TUESDAY
MANY AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S WITH PERHAPS A 60 DEGREE
READING OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES. ALTHOUGH THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL PUT AN END TO ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD
COVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO GO
AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY COURTESY OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT.

AFTER A DRY START TO THE WEEK...WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW LIFT FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC...IT WILL DRAG A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE INDICATING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION...HOWEVER THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FRONTOGENETIC AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
AND RETURN FLOW SUPPLYING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOWER LAKES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS BRINGS A FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NEW YORK THAT SLOWS UP THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SPEEDS THE FRONT THROUGH WITH A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES...WILL JUST COVER THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME BEING AND KEEP TEMERPATURES RIGHT AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE AWASH IN A MILD PACIFIC
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE OF MVFR
THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA.
TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL LIKELY SEE
FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
THESE SITES SHOULD FAVOR VFR.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER
LAKE ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...AND WILL SPREAD WEST ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301750
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE
OF MVFR THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL
LIKELY SEE FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO FALL THIS MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD. GIVEN THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO...THUS NO MORE ADVISORIES REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301750
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
150 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...CIGS REMAIN WITHIN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ON EITHER SIDE
OF MVFR THRESHOLDS AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA. TAF SITES NEAREST THE LAKES...KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART...WILL
LIKELY SEE FREQUENT CHANGES BETWEEN VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIGHT
WINDS AND TRAPPED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY MVFR CIGS
AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO FALL THIS MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD. GIVEN THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO...THUS NO MORE ADVISORIES REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301452
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1052 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED
AREAS OF CLOUDINESS INLAND FROM THE LAKES THROUGH THE DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 15Z LARGELY LOW END VFR CIGS...AND SOME EMBEDDED MVFR
CIGS...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
THIS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME...THUS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TAF
SITES.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN
LARGELY MVFR/VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO TO FALL THIS MORNING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 3 FEET...AND
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD. GIVEN THESE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO...THUS NO MORE ADVISORIES REMAIN AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...CHURCH/THOMAS
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301137
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY BROKEN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH JUST SPOTTY
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE AND WEAKEN SE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS LAKE PARAMETERS
BECOME POORER...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE VALUES FALL
AND LESS SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO
END BY NOONTIME.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES...AND
THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER TODAY.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THROUGH THE DAY.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 12Z LARGELY LOW END VFR CIGS...AND SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER SOME IFR CIGS ARE FOUND. EXPECT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THIS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW.

A FEW PASSING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL LIKELY ONLY IMPACT KJHW TERMINAL...AND AT THAT ONLY A
VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF ACTIVITY FOR THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME...AND SIDE TOWARDS VFR WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN
LARGELY MVFR/VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE TO FALL...WITH WAVES NOW 4 FEET AND
UNDER. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CANCEL THE SCA HERE.

ON LAKE ONTARIO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WINDS AND WAVES ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS. WHILE THE WINDS ARE WEAKENING SOME...WAVES STILL 4 TO 5
FEET WILL MAINTAIN SCA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 300824
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
424 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST
ONE IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM OUR REGION TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND...AND MORE POTENT IS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY BROKEN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
AND WEAKEN SE OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME
POORER...LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE VALUES FALL AND LESS
SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECT MUCH OF THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO END BY
NOONTIME.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON IR IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL LEAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY FOR
OUR REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE LAKESHORES ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON.

UNDER THESE CLOUDS HIGHS TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 WITH MOST
AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY THE SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER
MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THIS SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A
BOUNDARY FOR WHICH SOUTHERLY...AND INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW WILL
PRODUCE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TOWARDS
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

THOUGH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEEPENING AT THE
SURFACE...IT WILL NOT BE TO DEEP...WITH A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE
REMAINING ABOVE 1000MB. THIS WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY
GUSTY WINDS...RATHER JUST A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THAT WILL BACK TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THIS LIGHT WIND TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND INLAND SOUTHERN TIER...WHILE REMAINING AROUND 40 NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE REMAINS LITTLE QUESTION THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. 00Z MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
ON FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE
CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER THE UNUSUAL NORTH
TO SOUTH TRACK WILL KEEP OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE 850MB TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED FROM -1
TO -2C WHICH SHOULD BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH WEAK LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX SURFACE MAP THIS
WEEKEND HOWEVER FOR OUR REGION THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE QUITE SIMPLE
WITH A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION FROM THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO LIFT GENERATED
BY UPSLOPE AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT. CONSENSUS QPF CONTINUES TO BE LIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LARGELY REMAIN TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW
ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE
TO OUR EAST WHICH WILL FILTER IN COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AWAY FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS MAY BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM
COOLER AIR ALOFT...BUT EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...FROM A COMBINATION OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING.
HOWEVER...ANY AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ALTHOUGH 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...NAM
BUFKIT SHOWS DRY AIR ABOVE -10C WHICH SUGGESTS A LIMITED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MOISTURE MAY ONLY BE ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCED
STRATUS.

AS ADVERTISED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S. THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS INTO
THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH UPPER 20S INLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60S. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A CONSENSUS TIMING OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FOR WEDNESDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z LARGELY LOW END VFR CIGS...AND SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER SOME IFR CIGS ARE FOUND. EXPECT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THIS NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW.

A FEW PASSING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL LIKELY ONLY IMPACT KJHW TERMINAL...AND AT THAT ONLY A
VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF ACTIVITY.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME...AND SIDE TOWARDS VFR WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN
LARGELY MVFR/VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED FOR
WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ERIE TO FALL...WITH WAVES NOW 4 FEET AND
UNDER. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL CANCEL THE SCA HERE.

ON LAKE ONTARIO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WINDS AND WAVES ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS. WHILE THE WINDS ARE WEAKENING SOME...WAVES STILL 4 TO 5
FEET WILL MAINTAIN SCA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 300551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY BROKEN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SE
OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATE OVERNIGHT
AS LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS WEAKEN...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. UNDER A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS START TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORES. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -3C WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE YOUR
TYPICAL CLIPPER AS FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL AND INFLUENCED BY STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND ARE LOOKING
DIMMER AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF PLACING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF
MILDER MARITIME AIR FLOWING OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS NOW RUNNING AROUND -2C...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
WELL INTO THE 40S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MILDER MARITIME AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE SUB-FREEZING...LOW LEVEL
READINGS APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES TO PUSH THE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE TO
THE SURFACE...A NECESSARY PRE-REQUISUTE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
NONETHELESS...IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR
NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY AMOUNTING TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING OF WET SNOW. AS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING AND ALSO WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LAKE
INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. AS WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE RACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AS OUR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK..WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING
SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LATITUDINAL AXIS OF THE LAKE AND AN INCREASING
DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE ME WAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS A COLD
RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN SATURDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...AT THAT POINT THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRYING TO THE POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...WINTER`S CHILL WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH
READINGS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AS WARM AIR SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF OUR FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 06Z LARGELY LOW END VFR CIGS...AND SOME EMBEDDED MVFR CIGS ARE
FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW. ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE INLAND SOUTHERN TIER SOME IFR CIGS ARE FOUND. EXPECT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THIS NORTHWEST
UPSLOPE FLOW.

A FEW PASSING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL LIKELY ONLY IMPACT KJHW TERMINAL...AND AT THAT ONLY A
VCSH WILL BE INCLUDED DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF ACTIVITY.

THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY THIN
THROUGH THE DAYTIME...AND SIDE TOWARDS VFR WITH THE DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH AGAIN
LARGELY MVFR/VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REACH FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AROUND 9-15Z TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE AND THURSDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A COASTAL LOW TO FORM A DEEP
NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOWER LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 300222
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1022 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING A WEAKENING AREA OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE EASTERN END OF
THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO BEFORE ENDING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER EXPECT SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND SHORTENS THE
EFFECTIVE FETCH.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS IS FOUND FROM OSWEGO
COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDNIGHT HOUR BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...FORCING ACTIVITY TO BREAK UP INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
SPREAD OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE. LATE TONIGHT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE ROCHESTER
AREA.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE PRODUCED.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS START TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORES. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -3C WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE YOUR
TYPICAL CLIPPER AS FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL AND INFLUENCED BY STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND ARE LOOKING
DIMMER AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF PLACING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF
MILDER MARITIME AIR FLOWING OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS NOW RUNNING AROUND -2C...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
WELL INTO THE 40S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MILDER MARITIME AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE SUB-FREEZING...LOW LEVEL
READINGS APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES TO PUSH THE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE TO
THE SURFACE...A NECESSARY PRE-REQUISUTE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
NONETHELESS...IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR
NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY AMOUNTING TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING OF WET SNOW. AS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING AND ALSO WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LAKE
INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. AS WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE RACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AS OUR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK..WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING
SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LATITUDINAL AXIS OF THE LAKE AND AN INCREASING
DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE ME WAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS A COLD
RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN SATURDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...AT THAT POINT THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRYING TO THE POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...WINTER`S CHILL WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH
READINGS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AS WARM AIR SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF OUR FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE ARE WEAKENING LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR VSBY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH A FEW
BRIEF WINDOWS OF MVFR IN THE REMAINING HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. A PLUME OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO A FEW SHOWERS ARE
FOUND FROM OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHWEST...AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. UPSLOPE FLOW
AND MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR CIGS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON THURSDAY ANY REMAINING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE AND THURSDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A COASTAL LOW TO FORM A DEEP
NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOWER LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 292351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...USHERING IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG
WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN ON THE HILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A DECENTLY ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE PUSHING BODILY INLAND ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EVEN INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THIS
LAKE BAND HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG AN
ADVANCING TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
MORE ORGANIZED LOOK OF THE BAND TO BE SHORT LIVED AS IT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING. VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
BREAK IT APART INTO WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MIDNIGHT.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO NOTHING MUCH IS OCCURRING YET...BUT THIS SHOULD
CHANGE AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH CROSSES THE EASTERN END OF THE
LAKE. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING
THE MID EVENING THEN PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LAKE AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND BREAK APART. VEERING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY FROM MONROE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT.

NEITHER OF THESE BANDS WILL BE IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OFF LAKE ERIE MAY
SEE A QUICK QUARTER INCH. AFTER MIDNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS
FURTHER TO NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES DUE TO SHORT FETCH DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS START TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNNY BREAKS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LAKESHORES. 850MB TEMPS
AROUND -3C WILL ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 40S ON THE HILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE YOUR
TYPICAL CLIPPER AS FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL AND INFLUENCED BY STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND ARE LOOKING
DIMMER AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF PLACING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF
MILDER MARITIME AIR FLOWING OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS NOW RUNNING AROUND -2C...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
WELL INTO THE 40S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MILDER MARITIME AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE SUB-FREEZING...LOW LEVEL
READINGS APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES TO PUSH THE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE TO
THE SURFACE...A NECESSARY PRE-REQUISUTE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
NONETHELESS...IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR
NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY AMOUNTING TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING OF WET SNOW. AS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING AND ALSO WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LAKE
INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. AS WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE RACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AS OUR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK..WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING
SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LATITUDINAL AXIS OF THE LAKE AND AN INCREASING
DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE ME WAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS A COLD
RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN SATURDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...AT THAT POINT THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRYING TO THE POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...WINTER`S CHILL WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH
READINGS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AS WARM AIR SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF OUR FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE LAKES. OFF LAKE ERIE A
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BREAKING APART INTO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. ANY MVFR VSBY SHOULD END
BY 03Z WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE BAND. OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE TUG HILL DURING THE
MID TO LATE EVENING BEFORE PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
LAKE BY MIDNIGHT AND BREAKING APART INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS. ANY MVFR
VSBY WILL BE BRIEF HERE AS WELL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WITHIN THE MORE ORGANIZED LAKE BANDS THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY VEER TO NORTHWEST...AND
THIS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. UPSLOPE FLOW
AND MORE WIDESPREAD LAKE MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE MVFR CIGS BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON THURSDAY ANY REMAINING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES SHOULD END BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST HILLS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS OF THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW
WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT ON LAKE ERIE AND THURSDAY MORNING ON LAKE ONTARIO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A COASTAL LOW TO FORM A DEEP
NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOWER LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 292132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
532 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USHERING
IN COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY TRANSITION INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE
SEASON BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS EVENING SHOWING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
QUICKLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE
TO COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT AND
CONVERGENCE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE LOWER LAKES. THE
BAND WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM
BUFFALO TO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR...THEN PUSH INLAND
AND FALL APART BY MID EVENING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY VEERS NORTHWEST. OFF LAKE
ONTARIO NOTHING HAS FORMED YET...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BLOSSOM OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SCALE CONDITIONS SPREAD EAST.
THIS SHOULD SET UP ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THEN PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LAKE AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH VEERING LOW
LEVEL FLOW.

NEITHER OF THESE BANDS WILL BE IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS OFF LAKE ERIE MAY
SEE A QUICK QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH. AFTER MIDNIGHT BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO NORTHWEST...WITH WEAK SPRINKLES AND
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES DUE TO SHORT FETCH DESPITE COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS START TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOME VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE TO HELP TEMPERATURES AS A COLD
AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES OUT OF WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE YOUR
TYPICAL CLIPPER AS FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY
MERIDIONAL AND INFLUENCED BY STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. THE PROSPECTS FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND ARE LOOKING
DIMMER AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW
WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT
OF PLACING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF
MILDER MARITIME AIR FLOWING OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD OF
GREATEST PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
850MB TEMPS NOW RUNNING AROUND -2C...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
WELL INTO THE 40S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MILDER MARITIME AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE SUB-FREEZING...LOW LEVEL
READINGS APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES TO PUSH THE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE TO
THE SURFACE...A NECESSARY PRE-REQUISUTE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
NONETHELESS...IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR
NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY AMOUNTING TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING OF WET SNOW. AS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING AND ALSO WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LAKE
INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. AS WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE RACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AS OUR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK..WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING
SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LATITUDINAL AXIS OF THE LAKE AND AN INCREASING
DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE ME WAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS A COLD
RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN SATURDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...AT THAT POINT THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRYING TO THE POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...WINTER`S CHILL WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH
READINGS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AS WARM AIR SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF OUR FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH
BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A BRIEF MVFR TEMPO GROUP WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR THIS EVENING. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS OF MVFR.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM BY MID
EVENING...THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH LOCAL MVFR.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AS LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM LAKE
EFFECT RAIN FORM LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS
OF THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A COASTAL LOW TO FORM A DEEP
NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOWER LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 292010
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...USHERING
IN COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL POTENTIALLY TRANSITION INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE
SEASON BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM +1C THIS MORNING TO NEAR -1C THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS JUST COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A WEAK BAND RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...BASICALLY BETWEEN DUNKIRK AND
BUFFALO. EXPECT A SIMILAR BAND TO BEGIN TO FORM EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO BETWEEN 20Z AND 23Z AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THAT PORTION
OF THE AREA.

UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN WORKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHWESTERLY AND WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
THAT -2C TO -4C AIR WILL INVADE THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO THE
30S...WITH A FEW AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...LOW TO MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS WEAK UPSTREAM RIDGE
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND
BEGINS TO BACK MORE WESTERLY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ANY WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS START TO WIND DOWN AS EARLY
AS MIDDAY WITH A MUCH GREATER DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON.
SOME VERY LIMITED SUNSHINE FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE TO HELP TEMPERATURES AS A COLD
AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE OPEN THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE DIVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OUT
OF WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE YOUR TYPICAL CLIPPER AS
FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL BE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL AND INFLUENCED BY
STEEP RIDGING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE PROSPECTS FOR
SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN OR NORTH-CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS WEEKEND ARE LOOKING DIMMER AS THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
SUBTLE DIFFERENCE WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF MILDER MARITIME AIR
FLOWING OFF THE ATLANTIC DURING THE PERIOD OF GREATEST PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS NOW RUNNING
AROUND -2C...AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS THAT WERE MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
BRINGING COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN RAMP UP DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF INTO AN COMPACT UPPER LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN
OHIO AND WESTERN NEW YORK COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COMBINATION
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MODEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
WELL INTO THE 40S.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IT NOW APPEARS THAT MILDER MARITIME AIR WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE SUB-FREEZING...LOW LEVEL
READINGS APPEAR TO BE JUST ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH ABOVE FREEZING SUCH THAT IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR
DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES TO PUSH THE WET BULB ZERO TEMPERATURE TO
THE SURFACE...A NECESSARY PRE-REQUISUTE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.
NONETHELESS...IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING AT LEAST A
RAIN-SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR
NOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY AMOUNTING TO NOT MUCH MORE THAN A COATING OF WET SNOW. AS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CARRY ONLY CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE AREA WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE DEEPER
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND FORCING AND ALSO WILL NOT BE SUBJECT TO LAKE
INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW. AS WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

THE RACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION AS OUR UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST AND COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH FROM CANADA AS NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE LIMITED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK..WITH THE LIMITING FACTORS BEING
SHORT FETCH ACROSS THE LATITUDINAL AXIS OF THE LAKE AND AN INCREASING
DEARTH OF MOISTURE ALOFT. WHILE ME WAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL ENTIRELY AS A COLD
RAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN SATURDAY EVENING AS
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...AT THAT POINT THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE DRYING TO THE POINT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. WITH COLD AND DRY AIR DESCENDING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH...WINTER`S CHILL WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 20S INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH
READINGS RUNNING IN THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY STILL BE DEALING WITH THE EFFECTS OF
A DEEP COASTAL LOW SUNDAY...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL
BE ENTERING A PERIOD OF BENIGN WEATHER AS A STEEP RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY ON SUNDAY AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY...THE
REGION SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO THE
EAST COAST...OPENING UP THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO WARM SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW. ALAS THE MILD WEATHER WILL COME AT A PRICE AS WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS WE MOVE DEEPER INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS
IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENTS TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
NATION`S MID-SECTION AS WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. ENCOUNTERS MILDER PACIFIC AIR ADVECTING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT BASIN. TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 60S AS WARM AIR SURGES POLEWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF OUR FORECAST
PERIOD...TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BRUSH BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A VCSH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT
LIKELY NOT UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGN.
THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AS LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM LAKE
EFFECT RAIN FORM LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS
OF THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ENERGY FROM THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH A COASTAL LOW TO FORM A DEEP
NORTHEAST COASTAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY
COMPONENT WINDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOWER LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 291731
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
131 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROPPING FROM AROUND 0 TO
+6C (WEST TO EAST) TO -4 TO -2C BY THE CLOSE OF TONIGHT. THIS COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CREATE LAKE INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. AN
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE UNSTABLE LAKE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM AN NEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WHILE OVERALL
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
(AROUND 9K FEET AND 250-500 J/KG) THEY SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATE TO
PRODUCE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WITHIN AN ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TODAY...AND STARTING LATER IN THE DAY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF LIKELY POPS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA OFF LAKE ERIE...AND LATER IN THE
DAY/EVENING TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THESE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO
PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BANDS ACROSS SKI COUNTRY/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE...AND
DROPPING FROM THE CENTRAL TUG HILL REGION DOWN TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THESE MODEST LAKE PARAMETERS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TEND TO FAVOR LIGHTER
MULTI BANDED LAKE BAND STRUCTURES WILL SUPPORT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS
TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ONLY PARTIALLY CLEAR
TODAY...AND THIS CLEARING WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT BANDS.
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD...NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO THE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STILL
WARM LAKE ONTARIO PROVIDING FOR LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT ONLY WILL TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL TREND LOWER AND LOWER RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT WILL EVEN GET THEIR FIRST CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW...BUT THAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN THE DIRECTION
OF OUR TEMPERATURES.

A SAPLESS LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
MORNING WILL GATHER SOME VIGOR AND MOMENTUM AS IT WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE BACKSIDE SIDE OF AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED
BY A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ONE THAT WILL
COME AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TWO WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WILL SEND A SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF JUST -10 TO
-15C IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY TRUE COLD
AIR TO SPEAK OF. WITHOUT ANY SNOWCOVER THIS AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
MODIFY AS IT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH...AND THE BULK OF IT WILL PASS BY
ACROSS QUEBEC ANYWAY.

GETTING BACK TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
OVERALL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION...THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL LOWER THE 1.5PV SFC TO ARND
800MB BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. WITH THE HELP OF THE WARMER WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...A WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE
MICHIGAN STRAITS. THE NEARLY OPEN SFC WAVE WILL THEN TAKE AN UNUSUAL
PATH TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AFTER WHICH TIME IT WILL
TRANSFER WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IT HAS TO THE COAST WHERE CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.

THE FIRST REAL NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS WHOLE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE ENSUING
BOMBOGENESIS. WHILE THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS NEWSWORTHY STORM WILL BE
MINIMAL ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ONLY PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT OF
HOW MUCH WIND OUR EASTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE AND THE EXTENT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
EXTENT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES AT PARTLY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY
WHILE LIGHT NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LK ONTARIO. A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND A
PALTRY CAP OF JUST 6K FT WILL INHIBIT ANY REAL NOTABLE LAKE
RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE...SOME SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT CLOSE TO
THE LAKES TOWARDS MORNING.

THE SFC WAVE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 110KT H25
WILL STREAK SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA OF LIFT
PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL SKIRT THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE IT JUST HAPPENS THAT THE GREATEST HGT FALLS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY
FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. EVEN WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST COMMON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
SFC WAVE WILL BE HANDED OFF TO THE COAST WHERE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE IN THE MAKING. A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PARTLY BEING FED BY A DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SEMBLANCE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
LEAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TEMPERATURES AT
CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...BUT THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST LOOKS TOO
`WARM` TO SUPPORT MORE THAN WET FLAKES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
YES...THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO HELP WITH KEEPING THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED ATLANTIC AIRMASS
WILL NOT OFFER A LOT OF `ROOM` FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
COOLING DUE TO MELTING. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH...SO AM NOT
RULING OUT MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE A THE DEEPENING NOR`EASTER OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE A CHILLY
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
OVER OUR REGION WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CHILLY FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL THEN BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6C...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPS IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET COULD GET HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE SOME OF
THE PCPN BACK TO LIQUID DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY BE THE PERIOD WHERE ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY
AREAS...CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S (ELEVATIONS) TO LOWER 40S (LK PLAINS).

AS RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NOR`EASTER CHUGS FURTHER UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE STRIPPED AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
THOUGH...SO SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED...ALBEIT IT TOO A LESSER
EXTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVY PATTERN FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
DE-AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC MODIFIED
AIR TO FLOOD THE COUNTRY. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB AS A
RESULT...WITH MERCURY READINGS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...AND
THUS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THIS PACIFIC WARMTH IN
THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE 6 TO 10...AND 8 TO
14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE A CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PROMOTE DRY FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT WILL THEN OFFER THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COOL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BRUSH BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A VCSH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT
LIKELY NOT UNTIL TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGN.
THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AS LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM LAKE
EFFECT RAIN FORM LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RUSH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...MAINTAINING 4+ FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ERIE...WHILE WAVES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE WINDS...VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 291451
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROPPING FROM AROUND 0 TO
+6C (WEST TO EAST) TO -4 TO -2C BY THE CLOSE OF TONIGHT. THIS COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CREATE LAKE INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. AN
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE UNSTABLE LAKE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM AN NEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WHILE OVERALL
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
(AROUND 9K FEET AND 250-500 J/KG) THEY SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATE TO
PRODUCE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WITHIN AN ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TODAY...AND STARTING LATER IN THE DAY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF LIKELY POPS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA OFF LAKE ERIE...AND LATER IN THE
DAY/EVENING TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THESE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO
PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BANDS ACROSS SKI COUNTRY/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE...AND
DROPPING FROM THE CENTRAL TUG HILL REGION DOWN TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THESE MODEST LAKE PARAMETERS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TEND TO FAVOR LIGHTER
MULTI BANDED LAKE BAND STRUCTURES WILL SUPPORT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS
TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ONLY PARTIALLY CLEAR
TODAY...AND THIS CLEARING WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT BANDS.
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD...NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO THE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STILL
WARM LAKE ONTARIO PROVIDING FOR LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT ONLY WILL TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL TREND LOWER AND LOWER RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT WILL EVEN GET THEIR FIRST CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW...BUT THAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN THE DIRECTION
OF OUR TEMPERATURES.

A SAPLESS LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
MORNING WILL GATHER SOME VIGOR AND MOMENTUM AS IT WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE BACKSIDE SIDE OF AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED
BY A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ONE THAT WILL
COME AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TWO WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WILL SEND A SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF JUST -10 TO
-15C IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY TRUE COLD
AIR TO SPEAK OF. WITHOUT ANY SNOWCOVER THIS AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
MODIFY AS IT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH...AND THE BULK OF IT WILL PASS BY
ACROSS QUEBEC ANYWAY.

GETTING BACK TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
OVERALL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION...THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL LOWER THE 1.5PV SFC TO ARND
800MB BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. WITH THE HELP OF THE WARMER WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...A WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE
MICHIGAN STRAITS. THE NEARLY OPEN SFC WAVE WILL THEN TAKE AN UNUSUAL
PATH TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AFTER WHICH TIME IT WILL
TRANSFER WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IT HAS TO THE COAST WHERE CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.

THE FIRST REAL NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS WHOLE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE ENSUING
BOMBOGENESIS. WHILE THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS NEWSWORTHY STORM WILL BE
MINIMAL ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ONLY PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT OF
HOW MUCH WIND OUR EASTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE AND THE EXTENT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
EXTENT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES AT PARTLY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY
WHILE LIGHT NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LK ONTARIO. A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND A
PALTRY CAP OF JUST 6K FT WILL INHIBIT ANY REAL NOTABLE LAKE
RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE...SOME SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT CLOSE TO
THE LAKES TOWARDS MORNING.

THE SFC WAVE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 110KT H25
WILL STREAK SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA OF LIFT
PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL SKIRT THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE IT JUST HAPPENS THAT THE GREATEST HGT FALLS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY
FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. EVEN WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST COMMON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
SFC WAVE WILL BE HANDED OFF TO THE COAST WHERE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE IN THE MAKING. A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PARTLY BEING FED BY A DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SEMBLANCE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
LEAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TEMPERATURES AT
CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...BUT THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST LOOKS TOO
`WARM` TO SUPPORT MORE THAN WET FLAKES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
YES...THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO HELP WITH KEEPING THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED ATLANTIC AIRMASS
WILL NOT OFFER A LOT OF `ROOM` FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
COOLING DUE TO MELTING. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH...SO AM NOT
RULING OUT MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE A THE DEEPENING NOR`EASTER OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE A CHILLY
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
OVER OUR REGION WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CHILLY FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL THEN BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6C...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPS IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET COULD GET HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE SOME OF
THE PCPN BACK TO LIQUID DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY BE THE PERIOD WHERE ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY
AREAS...CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S (ELEVATIONS) TO LOWER 40S (LK PLAINS).

AS RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NOR`EASTER CHUGS FURTHER UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE STRIPPED AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
THOUGH...SO SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED...ALBEIT IT TOO A LESSER
EXTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVY PATTERN FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
DE-AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC MODIFIED
AIR TO FLOOD THE COUNTRY. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB AS A
RESULT...WITH MERCURY READINGS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...AND
THUS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THIS PACIFIC WARMTH IN
THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE 6 TO 10...AND 8 TO
14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE A CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PROMOTE DRY FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT WILL THEN OFFER THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...A SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A VCSH WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER
AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE
ERIE DROPPING SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGN.
THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AS LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM LAKE
EFFECT RAIN FORM LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE THROUGH THURSDAY. BEHIND THIS LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RUSH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...MAINTAINING 4+ FOOT WAVE
HEIGHTS ON LAKE ERIE...WHILE WAVES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
LAKE ONTARIO. THESE WINDS...VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND
WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS/TMA
MARINE...THOMAS/TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 291139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR JAMES
BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY THE REGION DRY THIS MORNING POST COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROPPING FROM AROUND 0 TO
+6C (WEST TO EAST) TO -4 TO -2C BY THE CLOSE OF TONIGHT. THIS COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CREATE LAKE INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. AN
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE UNSTABLE LAKE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM AN NEARING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. WHILE OVERALL
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
(AROUND 9K FEET AND 250-500 J/KG) THEY SHOULD REMAIN ADEQUATE TO
PRODUCE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WITHIN AN ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TODAY...AND STARTING LATER IN THE DAY OFF LAKE
ONTARIO. AS WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF LIKELY POPS JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA OFF LAKE ERIE...AND LATER IN THE
DAY/EVENING TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST
THESE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FAR INLAND INTO THE
FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NEW YORK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO
PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BANDS ACROSS SKI COUNTRY/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE...AND
DROPPING FROM THE CENTRAL TUG HILL REGION DOWN TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THESE MODEST LAKE PARAMETERS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TEND TO FAVOR LIGHTER
MULTI BANDED LAKE BAND STRUCTURES WILL SUPPORT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS
TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ONLY PARTIALLY CLEAR
TODAY...AND THIS CLEARING WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT BANDS.
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD...NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO THE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STILL
WARM LAKE ONTARIO PROVIDING FOR LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT ONLY WILL TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL TREND LOWER AND LOWER RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT WILL EVEN GET THEIR FIRST CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW...BUT THAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN THE DIRECTION
OF OUR TEMPERATURES.

A SAPLESS LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
MORNING WILL GATHER SOME VIGOR AND MOMENTUM AS IT WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE BACKSIDE SIDE OF AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED
BY A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ONE THAT WILL
COME AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TWO WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WILL SEND A SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF JUST -10 TO
-15C IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY TRUE COLD
AIR TO SPEAK OF. WITHOUT ANY SNOWCOVER THIS AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
MODIFY AS IT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH...AND THE BULK OF IT WILL PASS BY
ACROSS QUEBEC ANYWAY.

GETTING BACK TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
OVERALL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION...THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL LOWER THE 1.5PV SFC TO ARND
800MB BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. WITH THE HELP OF THE WARMER WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...A WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE
MICHIGAN STRAITS. THE NEARLY OPEN SFC WAVE WILL THEN TAKE AN UNUSUAL
PATH TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AFTER WHICH TIME IT WILL
TRANSFER WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IT HAS TO THE COAST WHERE CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.

THE FIRST REAL NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS WHOLE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE ENSUING
BOMBOGENESIS. WHILE THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS NEWSWORTHY STORM WILL BE
MINIMAL ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ONLY PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT OF
HOW MUCH WIND OUR EASTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE AND THE EXTENT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
EXTENT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES AT PARTLY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY
WHILE LIGHT NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LK ONTARIO. A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND A
PALTRY CAP OF JUST 6K FT WILL INHIBIT ANY REAL NOTABLE LAKE
RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE...SOME SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT CLOSE TO
THE LAKES TOWARDS MORNING.

THE SFC WAVE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 110KT H25
WILL STREAK SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA OF LIFT
PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL SKIRT THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE IT JUST HAPPENS THAT THE GREATEST HGT FALLS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY
FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. EVEN WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST COMMON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
SFC WAVE WILL BE HANDED OFF TO THE COAST WHERE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE IN THE MAKING. A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PARTLY BEING FED BY A DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SEMBLANCE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
LEAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TEMPERATURES AT
CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...BUT THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST LOOKS TOO
`WARM` TO SUPPORT MORE THAN WET FLAKES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
YES...THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO HELP WITH KEEPING THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED ATLANTIC AIRMASS
WILL NOT OFFER A LOT OF `ROOM` FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
COOLING DUE TO MELTING. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH...SO AM NOT
RULING OUT MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE A THE DEEPENING NOR`EASTER OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE A CHILLY
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
OVER OUR REGION WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CHILLY FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL THEN BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6C...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPS IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET COULD GET HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE SOME OF
THE PCPN BACK TO LIQUID DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY BE THE PERIOD WHERE ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY
AREAS...CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S (ELEVATIONS) TO LOWER 40S (LK PLAINS).

AS RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NOR`EASTER CHUGS FURTHER UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE STRIPPED AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
THOUGH...SO SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED...ALBEIT IT TOO A LESSER
EXTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVY PATTERN FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
DE-AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC MODIFIED
AIR TO FLOOD THE COUNTRY. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB AS A
RESULT...WITH MERCURY READINGS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...AND
THUS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THIS PACIFIC WARMTH IN
THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE 6 TO 10...AND 8 TO
14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE A CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PROMOTE DRY FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT WILL THEN OFFER THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 12Z THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW WELL EAST OF OUR AREA
WITH ALL 5 TAF SITES IN THE CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES FOR
THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS OR SO. THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS COLD AIR
DEEPENS...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH BY THE KBUF
AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A VCSH WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND A
SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGN.
THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

BY LATE TONIGHT SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AS LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MOISTURE FROM LAKE
EFFECT RAIN FORM LOWER CEILINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW REACHED THE JAMES BAY REGION THIS EARLY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
THROUGH TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL RUSH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...MAINTAINING 4+ FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE
ERIE...WHILE WAVES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON LAKE ONTARIO.
THESE WINDS...VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 290916
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
516 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR JAMES
BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY THE REGION DRY THIS MORNING POST COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROPPING FROM AROUND 0 TO
+6C (WEST TO EAST) TO -4 TO -2C BY THE CLOSE OF TONIGHT. THIS COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CREATE LAKE INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. AN
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE UNSTABLE LAKE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE
OVERALL LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE (AROUND 9K FEET AND 250-500 J/KG) THEY SHOULD REMAIN
ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WITHIN AN
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TODAY...AND STARTING LATER IN
THE DAY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF
LIKELY POPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA OFF LAKE
ERIE...AND LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION.
THE RELATIVELY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXTEND
FAR INLAND INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO
PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BANDS ACROSS SKI COUNTRY/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE...AND
DROPPING FROM THE CENTRAL TUG HILL REGION DOWN TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THESE MODEST LAKE PARAMETERS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TEND TO FAVOR LIGHTER
MULTI BANDED LAKE BAND STRUCTURES WILL SUPPORT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS
TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ONLY PARTIALLY CLEAR
TODAY...AND THIS CLEARING WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT BANDS.
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD...NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO THE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STILL
WARM LAKE ONTARIO PROVIDING FOR LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT ONLY WILL TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL TREND LOWER AND LOWER RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT WILL EVEN GET THEIR FIRST CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW...BUT THAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN THE DIRECTION
OF OUR TEMPERATURES.

A SAPLESS LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
MORNING WILL GATHER SOME VIGOR AND MOMENTUM AS IT WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE BACKSIDE SIDE OF AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED
BY A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ONE THAT WILL
COME AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TWO WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WILL SEND A SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF JUST -10 TO
-15C IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY TRUE COLD
AIR TO SPEAK OF. WITHOUT ANY SNOWCOVER THIS AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
MODIFY AS IT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH...AND THE BULK OF IT WILL PASS BY
ACROSS QUEBEC ANYWAY.

GETTING BACK TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
OVERALL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION...THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL LOWER THE 1.5PV SFC TO ARND
800MB BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. WITH THE HELP OF THE WARMER WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...A WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE
MICHIGAN STRAITS. THE NEARLY OPEN SFC WAVE WILL THEN TAKE AN UNUSUAL
PATH TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AFTER WHICH TIME IT WILL
TRANSFER WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IT HAS TO THE COAST WHERE CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.

THE FIRST REAL NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS WHOLE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE ENSUING
BOMBOGENESIS. WHILE THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS NEWSWORTHY STORM WILL BE
MINIMAL ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ONLY PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT OF
HOW MUCH WIND OUR EASTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE AND THE EXTENT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
EXTENT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES AT PARTLY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY
WHILE LIGHT NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LK ONTARIO. A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND A
PALTRY CAP OF JUST 6K FT WILL INHIBIT ANY REAL NOTABLE LAKE
RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE...SOME SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT CLOSE TO
THE LAKES TOWARDS MORNING.

THE SFC WAVE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 110KT H25
WILL STREAK SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA OF LIFT
PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL SKIRT THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE IT JUST HAPPENS THAT THE GREATEST HGT FALLS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY
FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. EVEN WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST COMMON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
SFC WAVE WILL BE HANDED OFF TO THE COAST WHERE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE IN THE MAKING. A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PARTLY BEING FED BY A DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SEMBLANCE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
LEAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TEMPERATURES AT
CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...BUT THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST LOOKS TOO
`WARM` TO SUPPORT MORE THAN WET FLAKES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
YES...THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO HELP WITH KEEPING THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED ATLANTIC AIRMASS
WILL NOT OFFER A LOT OF `ROOM` FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
COOLING DUE TO MELTING. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH...SO AM NOT
RULING OUT MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE A THE DEEPENING NOR`EASTER OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE A CHILLY
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
OVER OUR REGION WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CHILLY FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL THEN BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6C...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPS IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET COULD GET HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE SOME OF
THE PCPN BACK TO LIQUID DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY BE THE PERIOD WHERE ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY
AREAS...CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S (ELEVATIONS) TO LOWER 40S (LK PLAINS).

AS RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NOR`EASTER CHUGS FURTHER UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE STRIPPED AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
THOUGH...SO SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED...ALBEIT IT TOO A LESSER
EXTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVY PATTERN FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
DE-AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC MODIFIED
AIR TO FLOOD THE COUNTRY. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB AS A
RESULT...WITH MERCURY READINGS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES...AND
THUS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THIS PACIFIC WARMTH IN
THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE 6 TO 10...AND 8 TO
14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE A CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PROMOTE DRY FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT WILL THEN OFFER THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING EAST WITH ALL 5
TAF SITES IN THE CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...A
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A
VCSH WILL BE IN PLACE. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGN.
THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW REACHED THE JAMES BAY REGION THIS EARLY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
THROUGH TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL RUSH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...MAINTAINING 4+ FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE
ERIE...WHILE WAVES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON LAKE ONTARIO.
THESE WINDS...VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 290754
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR JAMES
BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES THIS MORNING.

REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY THE REGION DRY THIS MORNING POST COLD FRONT.

COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE TIME
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROPPING FROM AROUND 0 TO
+6C (WEST TO EAST) TO -4 TO -2C BY THE CLOSE OF TONIGHT. THIS COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO CREATE LAKE INSTABILITY THIS MORNING. AN
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST WIND OVER THE UNSTABLE LAKE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE
OVERALL LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND CAPE ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE (AROUND 9K FEET AND 250-500 J/KG) THEY SHOULD REMAIN
ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WITHIN AN
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE TODAY...AND STARTING LATER IN
THE DAY OFF LAKE ONTARIO. WILL CONTINUE WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF
LIKELY POPS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND BATAVIA OFF LAKE
ERIE...AND LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION.
THE RELATIVELY STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW...SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXTEND
FAR INLAND INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACT TO
PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BANDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WOULD PLACE THE
BANDS ACROSS SKI COUNTRY/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE...AND
DROPPING FROM THE CENTRAL TUG HILL REGION DOWN TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THESE MODEST LAKE PARAMETERS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...AND EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE TO THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
RAIN. THIS...COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TEND TO FAVOR LIGHTER
MULTI BANDED LAKE BAND STRUCTURES WILL SUPPORT JUST LOW CHANCE POPS
TO CLOSE OUT THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ONLY PARTIALLY CLEAR
TODAY...AND THIS CLEARING WILL BE AWAY FROM LAKE EFFECT BANDS.
TONIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COLD...NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH
THE 50S. WARMEST SPOTS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF TO THE 30S...WITH A FEW AREAS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE STILL
WARM LAKE ONTARIO PROVIDING FOR LOWS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NOT ONLY WILL TEMPERATURES AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY WILL TREND LOWER AND LOWER RIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT WILL EVEN GET THEIR FIRST CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE SNOW...BUT THAT IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN THAN THE DIRECTION
OF OUR TEMPERATURES.

A SAPLESS LOOKING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS
MORNING WILL GATHER SOME VIGOR AND MOMENTUM AS IT WILL DIG SOUTH
INTO THE BACKSIDE SIDE OF AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS PROCESS WILL BE AIDED
BY A BURGEONING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...ONE THAT WILL
COME AS A RESULT OF ANOTHER DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST
COAST. THE RESULTING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TWO WAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WILL SEND A SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...BUT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST H85 TEMPS OF JUST -10 TO
-15C IN THE VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY...THERE REALLY IS NOT ANY TRUE COLD
TO SPEAK OF. WITHOUT ANY SNOWCOVER...THIS AIRMASS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
MODIFY AS IT SETTLES TO THE SOUTH...AND THE BULK OF IT WILL PASS BY
ACROSS QUEBEC ANYWAY.

GETTING BACK TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE THE
OVERALL PATTERN OVER OUR REGION...THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
INTENSIFY TO THE POINT WHERE IT WILL LOWER THE 1.5PV SFC TO ARND
800MB BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS WAY TO THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY. WITH THE HELP OF THE WARMER WATERS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...A WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE
MICHIGAN STRAITS. THE NEARLY OPEN SFC WAVE WILL THEN TAKE AN UNUSUAL
PATH TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE...AFTER WHICH TIME IT WILL
TRANSFER WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IT HAS TO THE COAST WHERE CYCLOGENESIS
FROM THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.

THE FIRST REAL NOR`EASTER OF THE SEASON IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS WHOLE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THE ENSUING
BOMBOGENESIS. WHILE THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE FOR THOSE ALONG THE
COAST...THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THIS NEWSWORTHY STORM WILL BE
MINIMAL ON OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ONLY PLAY INTO THE AMOUNT OF
HOW MUCH WIND OUR EASTERN ZONES EXPERIENCE AND THE EXTENT OF
NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON THURSDAY...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
EXTENT NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SKIES AT PARTLY...IF NOT MOSTLY CLOUDY
WHILE LIGHT NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND EAST OF
LK ONTARIO. A SERIOUS LACK OF ANY MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AND A
PALTRY CAP OF JUST 6K FT WILL INHIBIT ANY REAL NOTABLE LAKE
RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC LOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE NIGHT WILL BE PCPN FREE...SOME SHOWERS COULD BREAK OUT CLOSE TO
THE LAKES TOWARDS MORNING.

THE SFC WAVE WILL TRACK FROM LAKE HURON TO LAKE ERIE DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY...WHILE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 110KT H25
WILL STREAK SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA OF LIFT
PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL SKIRT THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE IT JUST HAPPENS THAT THE GREATEST HGT FALLS
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...WITH MUCH LESS ACTIVITY
FOUND EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. EVEN WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST COMMON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM A TENTH OR TWO.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WHAT LITTLE ENERGY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
SFC WAVE WILL BE HANDED OFF TO THE COAST WHERE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE IN THE MAKING. A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT
BEHIND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PARTLY BEING FED BY A DEEPENING
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE SEMBLANCE OF A DEFORMATION ZONE
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...SO WILL
LEAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. IN REGARDS TO P-TYPE...TEMPERATURES AT
CLOUD LEVEL WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLENTY OF DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH...BUT THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST LOOKS TOO
`WARM` TO SUPPORT MORE THAN WET FLAKES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
YES...THERE COULD BE SOME DYNAMIC COOLING TO HELP WITH KEEPING THE
PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT THE NEARLY SATURATED ATLANTIC AIRMASS
WILL NOT OFFER A LOT OF `ROOM` FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING...AND AM NOT
EXPECTING THE PCPN TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
COOLING DUE TO MELTING. THIS WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH...SO AM NOT
RULING OUT MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ON SATURDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE A THE DEEPENING NOR`EASTER OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO PRODUCE A CHILLY
NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
OVER OUR REGION WILL BECOME FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE CHILLY FLOW
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH WILL THEN BE OROGRAPHICALLY LIFTED OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -6C...
THE BULK OF THE PCPN SHOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS...BUT TEMPS IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET COULD GET HIGH ENOUGH TO CHANGE SOME OF
THE PCPN BACK TO LIQUID DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY BE THE PERIOD WHERE ANY WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD TAKE PLACE...AND THIS WOULD MAINLY BE ON GRASSY
AREAS...CARS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S (ELEVATIONS) TO LOWER 40S (LK PLAINS).

AS RIDGING SLOWLY PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NOR`EASTER CHUGS FURTHER UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE BULK OF THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE STRIPPED AWAY FROM OUR
REGION. WE WILL STILL HAVE A LAKE ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE
THOUGH...SO SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED...ALBEIT IT TOO A LESSER
EXTENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WAVY PATTERN FOUND OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE WEEKEND WILL
DE-AMPLIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC MODIFIED
AIR TO FLOOD THE COUNTRY. OUR TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB AS A
RESULT...WITH MERCURY READINGS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STRONG CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MEDIUM
RANGE ENSEMBLES...AND THUS RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE...THAT THE
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH...IF
NOT ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THIS
PACIFIC WARMTH IN THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
6 TO 10...AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMP OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER.

IN TERMS OF PCPN...STRONG RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE A CHILLY NORTHERLY FLOW COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES OVER PARTS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL PROMOTE DRY FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. A PACIFIC BASED COOL FRONT WILL THEN OFFER THE CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING EAST WITH ALL 5
TAF SITES IN THE CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...A
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A
VCSH WILL BE IN PLACE. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGN.
THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE HAS NOW REACHED THE JAMES BAY REGION THIS EARLY
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
THROUGH TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS LOW...WESTERLY WINDS WILL RUSH OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...MAINTAINING 4+ FOOT WAVE HEIGHTS ON LAKE
ERIE...WHILE WAVES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON LAKE ONTARIO.
THESE WINDS...VEERING TO NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW WILL
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM
         EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 290551
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE...AND THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EARLY MORNING DISPLAY THE LAST OF THE RAIN
SHOWERS NOW EXITING LEWIS COUNTY. WITH LITTLE POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY
SEEN UPSTREAM EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN DRY AND
BREEZY UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT.

INCREASINGLY COLDER PROFILES IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND
SUBSEQUENT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
OFF LAKE ERIE. LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL RISE TO AROUND 300J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET. THESE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TAME
FOR A LAKE EFFECT RAIN SETUP...BUT ARE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS. ALL THE MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE
OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN GEM AS WELL AS ALL OUR IN-HOUSE
WORKSTATION WRF RUNS. GIVEN THE STRONG MESOSCALE MODEL SUPPORT AND
SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OFF LAKE
ERIE. BAND PLACEMENT IS MOST LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO THE CITY OF
BUFFALO AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS...EXTENDING EAST INTO
GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTIES. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW... SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL EXTEND FAR
INLAND INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SHARPLY COOLER DAY WITHIN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY AND BACK CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THE END
OF OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A
MUCH COOLER REGIME FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DROPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...PLACING IT UNDER WELL-ALIGNED
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKES AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.

850MB TEMPS RUNNING IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED CONSIDERABLY BY THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR THAT WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 5-7KFT.
NONETHELESS GIVEN THE MODEST LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY...WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND THIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE A
CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY STAYING ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A
LONG WAY TO TRAVEL FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA...AND THIS EXPLAINS THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT UNFOLD AMONGST
THE MODELS BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
WHILE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT BOTH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE HIGHER POPS AND PRECIP TYPE...THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT
THE STRONG DPVA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
WEAK LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND TRACKS OVER THE ALLEGANY
PLATEAU...THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON THE DAY...WHEN
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND
RECEIVING A COLD RAIN AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FULLY MATURE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DIVE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE SPAWNING A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. ONCE
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE SHORT
CROSS-LAKE FETCH ON ONTARIO UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX...AND THE
ENCROACHING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR THAT WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE ABILITY OF THE LAKE-EFFECT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY.

ONCE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SATURDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE A DRYING TREND UNFOLDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
LAKES WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE MODEST WARMING SUNDAY...WE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXITING EAST WITH ALL 5
TAF SITES IN THE CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS COLD AIR DEEPENS...A
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH BY THE KBUF AIRFIELD...FOR WHICH A
VCSH WILL BE IN PLACE. BEHIND A SHORTWAVE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LAKE EFFECT RAIN BAND OFF LAKE ERIE DROPPING
SOUTHWARD...AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS TO FORM...BUT LIKELY
NOT UNTIL THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALIGN.
THIS BAND LIKEWISE WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD.

CIGS WILL LARGELY BE VFR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH SOME
INSTANCES OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY LAKE EFFECT
RAIN BANDS. THESE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS DROP...AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING TO REMAIN BRISK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM
         EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 290317
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1117 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL
SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS CONSOLIDATING INTO A SOLID
FRONTAL BAND LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THIS WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR LEWIS COUNTY BY
AROUND 06Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY THEN IN MOST AREAS. FARTHER
WEST...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF MOST
OF WESTERN NY...AND THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG DRYING WILL KICK IN
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY COLDER PROFILES IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OFF LAKE ERIE. LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL RISE TO AROUND 300J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET.
THESE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TAME FOR A LAKE EFFECT RAIN SETUP...BUT
ARE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN GEM AS WELL AS
ALL OUR IN-HOUSE WORKSTATION WRF RUNS. GIVEN THE STRONG MESOSCALE
MODEL SUPPORT AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY OFF LAKE ERIE. BAND PLACEMENT IS MOST LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO
THE CITY OF BUFFALO AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS...EXTENDING
EAST INTO GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTIES. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND FAR INLAND INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SHARPLY COOLER DAY WITHIN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY AND BACK CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THE END
OF OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A
MUCH COOLER REGIME FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DROPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...PLACING IT UNDER WELL-ALIGNED
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKES AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.

850MB TEMPS RUNNING IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED CONSIDERABLY BY THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR THAT WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 5-7KFT.
NONETHELESS GIVEN THE MODEST LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY...WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND THIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE A
CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY STAYING ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A
LONG WAY TO TRAVEL FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA...AND THIS EXPLAINS THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT UNFOLD AMONGST
THE MODELS BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
WHILE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT BOTH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE HIGHER POPS AND PRECIP TYPE...THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT
THE STRONG DPVA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
WEAK LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND TRACKS OVER THE ALLEGANY
PLATEAU...THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON THE DAY...WHEN
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND
RECEIVING A COLD RAIN AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FULLY MATURE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DIVE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE SPAWNING A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. ONCE
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE SHORT
CROSS-LAKE FETCH ON ONTARIO UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX...AND THE
ENCROACHING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR THAT WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE ABILITY OF THE LAKE-EFFECT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY.

ONCE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SATURDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE A DRYING TREND UNFOLDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
LAKES WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE MODEST WARMING SUNDAY...WE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL BANDS OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY
MODERATE AND MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...
BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER IS NOW
VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE NIL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS
WESTERN NY BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT
AND LEAVING HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS.

ON TUESDAY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BECOMES JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE. SOME OF THIS
MAY CLIP KBUF FOR AWHILE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY...BUT
THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. WITHIN THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING TO REMAIN BRISK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA









000
FXUS61 KBUF 290232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL
SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS CONSOLIDATING INTO A SOLID
FRONTAL BAND LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP EAST INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION THROUGH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THIS WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOUR AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR LEWIS COUNTY BY
AROUND 06Z WITH SHOWERS ENDING BY THEN IN MOST AREAS. FARTHER
WEST...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHOWERS HAS ALREADY PUSHED EAST OF MOST
OF WESTERN NY...AND THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG DRYING WILL KICK IN
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY COLDER PROFILES IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OFF LAKE ERIE. LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL RISE TO AROUND 300J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET.
THESE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TAME FOR A LAKE EFFECT RAIN SETUP...BUT
ARE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN GEM AS WELL AS
ALL OUR IN-HOUSE WORKSTATION WRF RUNS. GIVEN THE STRONG MESOSCALE
MODEL SUPPORT AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY OFF LAKE ERIE. BAND PLACEMENT IS MOST LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO
THE CITY OF BUFFALO AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS...EXTENDING
EAST INTO GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTIES. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND FAR INLAND INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SHARPLY COOLER DAY WITHIN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY AND BACK CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THE END
OF OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A
MUCH COOLER REGIME FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DROPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...PLACING IT UNDER WELL-ALIGNED
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKES AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING
IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED CONSIDERABLY BY THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR THAT WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 5-7KFT.
NONETHELESS GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY AND
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY STAYING ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A
LONG WAY TO TRAVEL FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA...AND THIS EXPLAINS THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT UNFOLD AMONGST
THE MODELS BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
WHILE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT BOTH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE HIGHER POPS AND PRECIP TYPE...THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT
THE STRONG DPVA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
WEAK LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND TRACKS OVER THE ALLEGANY
PLATEAU...THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON THE DAY...WHEN
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND
RECEIVING A COLD RAIN AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FULLY MATURE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DIVE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE SPAWNING A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. ONCE
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE SHORT
CROSS-LAKE FETCH ON ONTARIO UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX...AND THE
ENCROACHING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR THAT WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE ABILITY OF THE LAKE-EFFECT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY.

ONCE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SATURDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE A DRYING TREND UNFOLDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
LAKES WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE MODEST WARMING SUNDAY...WE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL BANDS OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY
MODERATE AND MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...
BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER IS NOW
VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE NIL. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS
WESTERN NY BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT
AND LEAVING HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS.

ON TUESDAY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BECOMES JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE. SOME OF THIS
MAY CLIP KBUF FOR AWHILE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY...BUT
THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. WITHIN THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...WINDS WILL VEER TO WESTERLY
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING TO REMAIN BRISK. THIS WILL
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 282350
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
750 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AIR WILL
SWEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN
FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN POTENTIALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO THE FIRST SNOWFLAKES OF THE SEASON BY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE REGION
THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOCUSING ON A SERIES OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONES AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS WILL
END BY MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND SHOULD CLEAR MOST OF THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS
MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE...BUT ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER NOW APPEARS VERY
LOW BUT NOT QUITE NIL GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG DRYING WILL KICK IN
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY COLDER PROFILES IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL PRODUCE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OFF LAKE ERIE. LAKE INDUCED CAPE
WILL RISE TO AROUND 300J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET.
THESE PARAMETERS ARE RATHER TAME FOR A LAKE EFFECT RAIN SETUP...BUT
ARE PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS. ALL THE
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE OPERATIONAL NAM AND CANADIAN GEM AS WELL AS
ALL OUR IN-HOUSE WORKSTATION WRF RUNS. GIVEN THE STRONG MESOSCALE
MODEL SUPPORT AND SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY OFF LAKE ERIE. BAND PLACEMENT IS MOST LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO
THE CITY OF BUFFALO AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SUBURBS...EXTENDING
EAST INTO GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTIES. THE RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW...
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THESE SHOWERS WILL
EXTEND FAR INLAND INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND POSSIBLY EVEN CENTRAL NY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SHARPLY COOLER DAY WITHIN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY AND BACK CLOSE TO WHERE THEY SHOULD BE FOR THE END
OF OCTOBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A
MUCH COOLER REGIME FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DROPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...PLACING IT UNDER WELL-ALIGNED
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKES AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING
IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED CONSIDERABLY BY THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR THAT WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 5-7KFT.
NONETHELESS GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY AND
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY STAYING ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A
LONG WAY TO TRAVEL FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA...AND THIS EXPLAINS THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT UNFOLD AMONGST
THE MODELS BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
WHILE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT BOTH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE HIGHER POPS AND PRECIP TYPE...THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT
THE STRONG DPVA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
WEAK LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND TRACKS OVER THE ALLEGANY
PLATEAU...THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON THE DAY...WHEN
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND
RECEIVING A COLD RAIN AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FULLY MATURE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DIVE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE SPAWNING A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. ONCE
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE SHORT
CROSS-LAKE FETCH ON ONTARIO UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX...AND THE
ENCROACHING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR THAT WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE ABILITY OF THE LAKE-EFFECT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY.

ONCE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SATURDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE A DRYING TREND UNFOLDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
LAKES WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE MODEST WARMING SUNDAY...WE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND SEVERAL BANDS OF
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY
MODERATE AND MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...
BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. ANY CHANCE OF THUNDER IS NOW
VERY LOW...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE NIL. A FEW MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EVENTUALLY THE TUG HILL REGION...
BUT THIS TOO SHOULD BE BRIEF WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOWER CIGS
NOTED UPSTREAM. A DRY SLOT WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AND LEAVING HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDS.

ON TUESDAY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS ALOFT
BECOMES JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE. SOME OF THIS
MAY CLIP KBUF FOR AWHILE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY...BUT
THE MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AIRFIELD. WITHIN THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EXPECT MVFR
CIGS/VSBY WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA EXPECT MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING TO REMAIN
BRISK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA







000
FXUS61 KBUF 281935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK CURRENTLY RESIDING WITH IN
WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WITH RECORD AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS IS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND CENTRAL OHIO.
THE FRONT IS HELPING TO FUEL A FLAREUP OF SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER. FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION DOES NOT LEND A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...STRONG DRYING WILL KICK IN
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY COLDER PROFILES IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND SUBSEQUENT STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LAKE COMPONENT
ARGUE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. ANY ACTIVITY WHICH DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
FAVORED WESTERLY FLOW AREAS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A SHARPLY COOLER DAY WITHIN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE SOME 20 TO 25
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO A
MUCH COOLER REGIME FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SETS UP SHOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND THE UPPER
LEVEL JET DROPS SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC...PLACING IT UNDER WELL-ALIGNED
WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL KEEP COOL AIR FLOWING ACROSS THE LAKES AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING
IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE...TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH
TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED CONSIDERABLY BY THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR THAT WILL KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS GENERALLY AROUND 5-7KFT.
NONETHELESS GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE LAKE-INDUCED INSTABILITY AND
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...A CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OF LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE COOL AIRMASS AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THURSDAY STAYING ON THE CHILLY
SIDE...WITH HIGHS AROUND THE 50 DEGREE MARK. THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON
FRIDAY AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP OUT OF THE
CANADIAN ARCTIC AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE A
LONG WAY TO TRAVEL FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER THE BEAUFORT
SEA...AND THIS EXPLAINS THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT UNFOLD AMONGST
THE MODELS BY THE TIME THE TROUGH REACHES OUR PART OF THE WORLD.
WHILE THESE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT BOTH THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE HIGHER POPS AND PRECIP TYPE...THE GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT
THE STRONG DPVA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
WEAK LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND TRACKS OVER THE ALLEGANY
PLATEAU...THE COMBINATION OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW/MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND EASTERN
ONTARIO FRIDAY.

AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT WHILE THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY TO START THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER ON THE DAY...WHEN
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND
RECEIVING A COLD RAIN AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

THE TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FULLY MATURE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO DIVE
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST WHILE SPAWNING A
COASTAL LOW OFF THE EAST COAST. COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. ONCE
AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...MAINLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN TIER FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS TO ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE SHORT
CROSS-LAKE FETCH ON ONTARIO UNDER THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION TO ENHANCE MOISTURE FLUX...AND THE
ENCROACHING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR THAT WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE ABILITY OF THE LAKE-EFFECT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY.

ONCE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TAPER OFF SATURDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE A DRYING TREND UNFOLDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...THOUGH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE
LAKES WILL KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE MODEST WARMING SUNDAY...WE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLY WARMER BY MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST AND
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
SURFACE CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX DOWN STRONGER
WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THIS STATED...ANY STORM OR
STRONGER SHOWER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
FOR MOST PLACES AS STRONG DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING TO REMAIN
BRISK. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 281812
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
212 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
WARMTH TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE FIRST
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY...
BEFORE MOVING FURTHER ON INTO NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC DURING THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LOW WILL FINISH PUSHING
ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH OUR REGION THEN ENJOYING A BRIEF STINT WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT PLOWS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONSIDERABLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WHEN A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HELP TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH A 45-50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY COMING INTO PLAY...THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...SOME
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND WINDS GIVEN THE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR THESE WILL COME
ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES...WHERE THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL TO BORDERLINE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE
GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

BY FAR THOUGH...THE BIGGEST STORY OF ALL TODAY WILL BE THE NEAR-
RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE SHOULD BE A 4-6
HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...AND THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS SOARING TO +15C TO +19C ON A
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE STRONG LOW
LEVEL MIXING...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE GENESEE VALLEY
LIKELY GETTING AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S WITH THIS LATTER AREA
EXPERIENCING THE WARMEST OVERALL AIR AND NO MITIGATING EFFECTS FROM
THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT...THE "COOLEST" AREAS WILL BE THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AS WELL AS NIAGARA COUNTY/FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE COOLING WILL COME
INTO PLAY. EVEN IN THESE LATTER AREAS THOUGH...READINGS WILL STILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

IN TERMS OF RECORDS...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE 74
AT BUFFALO (1946)...76 AT ROCHESTER (1984)...AND 75 AT WATERTOWN
(1984)...WITH THE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ESPECIALLY ROCHESTER
APPEARING TO BE MOST IN JEOPARDY.

COUPLED WITH TODAY`S UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS
INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS FROM ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
DRY SLOTTING...SUBSIDENCE...AND GOOD COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THIS THEN GENERALLY CONTINUING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE THE OVERALL COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THOUGH THIS WOULD LIKELY BE GREATLY HINDERED BY FAIRLY LIMITED/
SHALLOW LEFTOVER MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT...WILL JUST INDICATE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
LATER ON IN THE NIGHT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OTHERWISE
DRYING OUT WITH TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL LARGELY FALL BACK TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE SPENT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
THE FIRST POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE NO MEANS BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THOUGH...AS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. LOOKING AT
WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...ITS NOT HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY.
FORTUNATELY...THE VARIOUS PACKAGES SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A COMMON
SOLUTION...FINALLY.

AN INDISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES (70N) OF THE
YUKON AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IS FORECAST TO VIGOROUSLY DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA...CARVING OUT A SHARP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE PROCESS. THIS
FORECAST WILL HINGE ON TWO FACTORS THOUGH. ONE BEING THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS DIFFICULT AT BEST
TO DEPICT IN WV IMAGERY...AND THE OTHER IS THE HANDLING OF AN
ALASKAN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK SOUTH TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IT
IS THIS SECOND FEATURE THAT WILL HELP TO PUMP UP A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
OVER THE LENGTH OF THE ROCKIES...THEREBY OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD IN THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM
HGT FIELD.

WHEN THIS IS ALL SAID AND DONE...A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL BECOME GREATLY EXAGGERATED WITH TWO DEEP
TROUGHS...ONE ON EACH COAST. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN IS FAIRLY
COMMON...AND LUCKILY FOR US...PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THIS MEANS THAT
JUST AS SURE AS WE WILL GET A SHOT OF WINTRY AIR...IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH AN EQUALLY ANOMALOUS WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW.

AS FOR THE MORE SUBTLE DETAILS...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS RIDGING...ALONG
WITH A LACK OF MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...SHOULD COUNTER-BALANCE
THE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AS H85 TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -2C WILL POUR OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVER OUR REGION...
ONLY NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WINDY AND NOTABLY COOLER WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A SOLID 20 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WHILE A CYCLONIC FLOW OF CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE LATTER WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN PLACE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WITHOUT MUCH MID LEVEL
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE THE
REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE
MERCURY ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 (MID 40S ELEVATIONS).

THE ONCE INNOCUOUS SHORTWAVE FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL HAVE
BECOME QUITE ROBUST IN ITS JOURNEY SOUTHWARDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ITS
INTENSITY WILL BE SUCH THAT IT WILL SUPPRESS THE 1.5PV SFC TO NEARLY
800MB AS IT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SPIN
UP A SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE HURON...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ALL
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE WITHIN
THIS AIRMASS BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE ITS ATTENDANT
SFC LOW WILL TAKE THE UNUSUAL TRACK FROM LK HURON TO NORTHWEST PA.
SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS AND LIFT PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF A 120KT H25 JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD COMBINE WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE FIELD TO PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...WHICH DURING
THE MORNING COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW.

AS THE VERY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO
VIRGINA FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE INTI AL SFC LOW WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITY
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A FEED OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW AND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME WET SNOW OVER THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE
TREND TOWARDS MODIFICATION. A PROGRESSIVE...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AS WE OPEN THE NEW WORK WEEK.

ON SATURDAY...THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES REMAIN AT ODDS OVER
THE STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE NOR`EASTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION WOULD BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
THAT WOULD REMAIN OVER NEW YORK. BOTH WOULD COME INTO PLAY WITH
DETERMINING HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT WE WOULD RECEIVE FROM THE ENSUING
NORTHERLY FLOW. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -8C...IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT WOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 SO IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BRISTOL HILLS.

A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POSSIBLE NOR`EASTER WINDS
UP OFF OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER ALL OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS MOST LIKELY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAIN. TEMPERATURES SAT
NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 FOR MOST SITES.

THE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA ON
SUNDAY WHILE STRONG RIDGING WILL EASE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER AIR (AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS) IS
EXPECTED TO POUR ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE THE LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACH TO WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
H85 TEMPS FORECAST TO REBOUND TO ARND 4C BY DAYS END. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS 50 F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO
DOMINATE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
SURFACE CONDITIONS AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX DOWN STRONGER
WINDS FROM ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THIS STATED...ANY STORM OR
STRONGER SHOWER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
FOR MOST PLACES AS STRONG DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

OTHERWISE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESHENING SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...WITH WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING RATHER
BRISK IN NATURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 281452
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1052 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE RECORD
BREAKING WARMTH ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...BEFORE ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ALONG WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE
SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THE STRENGTHENING
STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMES BAY...
BEFORE MOVING FURTHER ON INTO NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC DURING THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...THIS LOW WILL FINISH PUSHING
ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WITH OUR REGION THEN ENJOYING A BRIEF STINT WITHIN ITS WARM SECTOR
THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT PLOWS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONSIDERABLY BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...WHEN A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT ALONG THE
FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HELP TO GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH A 45-50 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY COMING INTO PLAY...THERE
WILL ALSO BE THE RISK OF SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...SOME
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND WINDS GIVEN THE RATHER
IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR THESE WILL COME
ACROSS AN AREA EXTENDING FROM JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE TO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES...WHERE THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A MARGINAL TO BORDERLINE
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY...AND THIS LOOKS VERY REASONABLE
GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

BY FAR THOUGH...THE BIGGEST STORY OF ALL TODAY WILL BE THE NEAR-
RECORD TO RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR. IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THERE SHOULD BE A 4-6
HOUR PERIOD OF AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE...AND THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH 925 MB TEMPS SOARING TO +15C TO +19C ON A
STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE STRONG LOW
LEVEL MIXING...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH THE GENESEE VALLEY
LIKELY GETTING AS WARM AS THE UPPER 70S WITH THIS LATTER AREA
EXPERIENCING THE WARMEST OVERALL AIR AND NO MITIGATING EFFECTS FROM
THE LAKES. AT THIS POINT...THE "COOLEST" AREAS WILL BE THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AS WELL AS NIAGARA COUNTY/FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE COOLING WILL COME
INTO PLAY. EVEN IN THESE LATTER AREAS THOUGH...READINGS WILL STILL
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHICH IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

IN TERMS OF RECORDS...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY ARE 74
AT BUFFALO (1946)...76 AT ROCHESTER (1984)...AND 75 AT WATERTOWN
(1984)...WITH THE RECORDS FOR BUFFALO AND ESPECIALLY ROCHESTER
APPEARING TO BE MOST IN JEOPARDY.

COUPLED WITH TODAY`S UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AS
INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS FROM ALOFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
DRY SLOTTING...SUBSIDENCE...AND GOOD COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
THIS THEN GENERALLY CONTINUING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...
WHERE THE OVERALL COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING...
THOUGH THIS WOULD LIKELY BE GREATLY HINDERED BY FAIRLY LIMITED/
SHALLOW LEFTOVER MOISTURE. AT THIS POINT...WILL JUST INDICATE SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES
LATER ON IN THE NIGHT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OTHERWISE
DRYING OUT WITH TIME. AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL LARGELY FALL BACK TO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED COOL AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE SPENT SETTING THE STAGE FOR
THE FIRST POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL BE NO MEANS BE A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST THOUGH...AS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
PACKAGES HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE DETAILS OF
A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. LOOKING AT
WV IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING...ITS NOT HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY.
FORTUNATELY...THE VARIOUS PACKAGES SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A COMMON
SOLUTION...FINALLY.

AN INDISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES (70N) OF THE
YUKON AND THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES IS FORECAST TO VIGOROUSLY DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS HUDSON BAY AND EASTERN CANADA...CARVING OUT A SHARP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE PROCESS. THIS
FORECAST WILL HINGE ON TWO FACTORS THOUGH. ONE BEING THE STRENGTH
AND POSITION OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS DIFFICULT AT BEST
TO DEPICT IN WV IMAGERY...AND THE OTHER IS THE HANDLING OF AN
ALASKAN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRACK SOUTH TO THE CALIFORNIA COAST. IT
IS THIS SECOND FEATURE THAT WILL HELP TO PUMP UP A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
OVER THE LENGTH OF THE ROCKIES...THEREBY OPENING THE DOOR FOR THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD IN THE WEAKENING DOWNSTREAM
HGT FIELD.

WHEN THIS IS ALL SAID AND DONE...A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL BECOME GREATLY EXAGGERATED WITH TWO DEEP
TROUGHS...ONE ON EACH COAST. THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN IS FAIRLY
COMMON...AND LUCKILY FOR US...PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE. THIS MEANS THAT
JUST AS SURE AS WE WILL GET A SHOT OF WINTRY AIR...IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH AN EQUALLY ANOMALOUS WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW.

AS FOR THE MORE SUBTLE DETAILS...
LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS RIDGING...ALONG
WITH A LACK OF MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...SHOULD COUNTER-BALANCE
THE THERMODYNAMICALLY FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS AS H85 TEMPS
OF ZERO TO -2C WILL POUR OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THIS
PATTERN WILL GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS OVER OUR REGION...
ONLY NUISANCE LAKE DRIVEN RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF BOTH
LAKES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WINDY AND NOTABLY COOLER WEDNESDAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING A SOLID 20 DEG F LOWER THAN THOSE FROM
TUESDAY.

WEAK SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
WHILE A CYCLONIC FLOW OF CHILLY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE LATTER WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS IN PLACE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WITHOUT MUCH MID LEVEL
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...QPF WILL BE MINIMAL. OTHERWISE THE
REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE
MERCURY ON THURSDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 (MID 40S ELEVATIONS).

THE ONCE INNOCUOUS SHORTWAVE FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL HAVE
BECOME QUITE ROBUST IN ITS JOURNEY SOUTHWARDS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ITS
INTENSITY WILL BE SUCH THAT IT WILL SUPPRESS THE 1.5PV SFC TO NEARLY
800MB AS IT WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SPIN
UP A SFC LOW IN THE VCNTY OF LAKE HURON...WHILE A DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ALL
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS COULD ARRIVE WITHIN
THIS AIRMASS BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

THE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHILE ITS ATTENDANT
SFC LOW WILL TAKE THE UNUSUAL TRACK FROM LK HURON TO NORTHWEST PA.
SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS AND LIFT PROVIDED UNDER THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF A 120KT H25 JET TO OUR WEST SHOULD COMBINE WITH A DEEP
MOISTURE FIELD TO PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS...WHICH DURING
THE MORNING COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME WET SNOW.

AS THE VERY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TO
VIRGINA FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE INTI AL SFC LOW WILL LOSE ITS IDENTITY
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH A FEED OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE
FLOW AND A LITTLE LOW LEVEL LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME WET SNOW OVER THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATION...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A DEFINITE
TREND TOWARDS MODIFICATION. A PROGRESSIVE...HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN
WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST TO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AS WE OPEN THE NEW WORK WEEK.

ON SATURDAY...THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES REMAIN AT ODDS OVER
THE STRENGTH OF A POSSIBLE NOR`EASTER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION WOULD BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
THAT WOULD REMAIN OVER NEW YORK. BOTH WOULD COME INTO PLAY WITH
DETERMINING HOW MUCH LAKE EFFECT WE WOULD RECEIVE FROM THE ENSUING
NORTHERLY FLOW. SINCE H85 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF -8C...IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT WOULD FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL BE ACROSS THE COUNTIES
BORDERING THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 SO IT IS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BRISTOL HILLS.

A SECOND STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POSSIBLE NOR`EASTER WINDS
UP OFF OF LONG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVER ALL OF OUR REGION WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWS MOST LIKELY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND LAKE ONTARIO LAKE PLAIN. TEMPERATURES SAT
NIGHT WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 FOR MOST SITES.

THE COASTAL STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA ON
SUNDAY WHILE STRONG RIDGING WILL EASE IN OUR DIRECTION FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. MUCH DRIER AIR (AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS) IS
EXPECTED TO POUR ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL ENCOURAGE THE LAKE EFFECT TO DIMINISH TO FLURRIES...ALTHOUGH IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY REACH TO WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF 40.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A FINE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
H85 TEMPS FORCEAST TO REBOUND TO ARND 4C BY DAYS END. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS 50 F.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS UNDER SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS TO
DOMINATE FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY SURFACE CONDITIONS
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS PARTICULAR TIME. THIS STATED...ANY STORM OR
STRONGER SHOWER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT...AND SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD
FOR MOST PLACES AS STRONG DRY SLOTTING/SUBSIDENCE AND COOLER AIR
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THE ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHERE SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT. OVERALL...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY FRIDAY...WITH
FURTHER DETERIORATION TO IFR/MVFR AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY...MVFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TO JAMES BAY TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN OUT ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

OTHERWISE...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESHENING SOUTHERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TODAY...WITH WILL VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN TO WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING RATHER
BRISK IN NATURE. THIS WILL PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-
LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...FOR WHICH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR






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