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000
FXUS61 KBUF 251830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOL
AND DRY WITH BRISK WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE SUNSHINE AND NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS NORTH OF
THE FINGER LAKES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHER
ONTARIO. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK...PLACING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INDEED MODEL PROGS PLACES THE SHARPEST DPVA
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT
HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. HENCE...EXPECT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE LARGELY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN
FACT..GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER
DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOIST IMPORTANTLY
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST ON OUR
DOORSTEP...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO 40KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS FUNNEL
DOWN LAKE ERIE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS
WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOL
AND DRY WITH BRISK WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE SUNSHINE AND NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS NORTH OF
THE FINGER LAKES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHER
ONTARIO. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK...PLACING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INDEED MODEL PROGS PLACES THE SHARPEST DPVA
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT
HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. HENCE...EXPECT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE LARGELY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN
FACT..GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER
DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOIST IMPORTANTLY
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ALMOST ON OUR
DOORSTEP...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS TO 40KT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS SOUTHWEST WINDS FUNNEL
DOWN LAKE ERIE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS
WILL THEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COOL
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251558
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOL
AND DRY WITH BRISK WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE SUNSHINE AND NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS NORTH OF
THE FINGER LAKES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHER
ONTARIO. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK...PLACING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INDEED MODEL PROGS PLACES THE SHARPEST DPVA
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT
HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. HENCE...EXPECT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE LARGELY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN
FACT..GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER
DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOIST IMPORTANTLY
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LAKE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS WINDS
FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 18Z AND
RAPIDLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND
00Z SUN. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251536
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1136 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL.
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO `BLOSSOM` NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LAKE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS WINDS
FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 18Z AND
RAPIDLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND
00Z SUN. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251106
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL.
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO `BLOSSOM` NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
WRN NEW YORK.

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY TODAY AS WELL WITH SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251106
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
706 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL.
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO `BLOSSOM` NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
WRN NEW YORK.

A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHEAST AND
CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE
DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY TODAY AS WELL WITH SOUTHWEST
SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250814
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
414 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOLER WITH BRISK WINDS. A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR WEATHER DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY
AS A VERY ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL CHARGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG H25 JET OF 145KTS (RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE IN A 10-20 YR PERIOD) WILL ACCOMPANY THE DIGGING
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...LEADING TO A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
EVENTUAL CLOSED LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT FOR THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS WAS EXCELLENTLY DESCRIBED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHARP MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.
PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE
THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME TOGETHER WITH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A 3 HOUR
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS
TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG FORCING
MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY TODAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF LAKE
ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER WHERE
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE
35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDY...THE STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT A NARROW
TONGUE OF 7/8C H85 TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
AFTERNOON TEMPS OF 60 TO 65...WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH CHILLIER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. H85 TEMPS WILL DROP TO ARND -1C AND
THIS WILL BE ESTABLISH ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF THE TUG HILL.
THE MESOSCALE BASED PCPN WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PASSING OF A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO `BLOSSOM` NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE THOUSAND ISLANDS.
WHILE THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV 10K FT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH
ZONE TO PRODUCE SOME WET FLAKES. THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE
PROFILE THOUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH ABV FREEZING TO ALLOW ANY SNOW
TO MELT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE SOME WET
SNOW COULD MIX IN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FROM ADDING THIS TO THE
PACKAGE.

OFF LK ERIE...THERE WILL BE A SERIOUS LACK OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ABV
5K FT SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD
COVER. ELSEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...TONIGHT WILL FEATURE BRISK
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW/KELZ).

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY AS WELL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF
SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250558
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY
DAYBREAK. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY BEFORE A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN FEATURED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD
SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER THANKS TO THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL
MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

IN THE HOURS FOLLOWING DAYBREAK...THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING NORTHWARDS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE DAWN HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER (KJHW/KELZ).

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND CROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE BULK OF THE DAY...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS
DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

IT WILL BECOME RATHER WINDY AS WELL DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE TAF
SITES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK. THERE WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LK ONTARIO THOUGH...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KART AND KGTB.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
         THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250257
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT.
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHING EAST
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THEN FEATURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER THANKS TO THE
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER
40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
LATE THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING
CROSSING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS WNY WITH THE LEADING EDGE EVENTUALLY REACHING ART/CNY BY
09Z. ACROSS FAR WNY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CIGS AT KBUF/KROC/KJHW
WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER 10Z AND AT KART AFTER 12Z.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE SHOWERS WILL HELP CIGS REBOUND TO VFR...BUT A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY
MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
806 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES THIS
EVENING. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE. THIS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AND INTO
WESTERN NY AFTER 01Z AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN FEATURED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE
OCTOBER THANKS TO THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S
IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING IS SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. THIS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS WNY THE AREA AFTER
01Z EVENTUALLY REACHING ART/CNY BY 09Z. ACROSS FAR WNY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT CIGS AT KBUF/KROC/KJHW WILL DROP TO MVFR AFTER 10Z AND
AT KART AFTER 12Z.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL CROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A
FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THESE SHOWERS WILL HELP CIGS REBOUND TO VFR...BUT A PERIOD
OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY
MAINLY VFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. THE NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN
ANY HEAVIER AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT 15-20 KNOTS ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF BOTH LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. THESE CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING BACK DOWN BY 11PM THIS
EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH WINDS AND WAVES AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT
         MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ044-045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A PATCH OF THICKER
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS CROSSING WESTERN NY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND THIN OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
LOWER CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TOO SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY.

OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A TRANQUIL AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY
CLEAR EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND INTO WESTERN NY...WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUPPORTED
BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY
SKC.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING
BACK DOWN THIS EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241952
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST
COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A COOLER AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY
BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND ARRIVES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING A PATCH OF THICKER
CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS CROSSING WESTERN NY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND THIN OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
LOWER CLOUD COVER FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS TOO SHOULD THIN OUT DURING THE
EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY.

OTHERWISE A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER LAKES
THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE A TRANQUIL AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY
CLEAR EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND INTO WESTERN NY...WITH THICKENING CLOUD COVER SUPPORTED
BY INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR LATE OCTOBER...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 40S IN THE COOLER MORE SHELTERED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. THE TUG HILL MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

SATURDAY MORNING THE AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST AND QUICKLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MID
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

DURING THE AFTERNOON A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TOWARDS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
CROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG
DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150+ KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET AND AREA OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1 INCH JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MORE THAN AMPLE FOR LATE FALL. THIS SHOULD ALL COME
TOGETHER WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
THE LIFTED INDEX DROPS TO -1C TO -3C DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THIS MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH STRONG FORCING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO REMAIN WIDELY
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
BENEATH THE FRONTAL INVERSION.

A BRIEF WINDOW OF 850MB TEMPS AROUND +7C JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS...IN THE MID 60S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME OF THE WARMER
SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 60S. IT WILL BECOME QUITE WINDY ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO
ROCHESTER WHERE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SCHEMES SUGGEST GUSTS IN
THE 35-40 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS TWO SHORTWAVES...A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF LAKE  WINNIPEG...AND A
SECOND MORE BROAD WAVE JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE KEY OVER THIS UPCOMING TIMEFRAME.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY...WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY THE
SATURDAY EVENING...THE START OF THIS TIME PERIOD. ALOFT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE WAVE STILL CROSSING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. ANY
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY WILL END EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA WILL DROP TO AROUND
-1C OVER LAKE ONTARIO...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER LAKE ERIE. THE
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL BE UP TO 10-12K FEET AND THERE
WILL ALSO BE LITTLE WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL AID TO DEVELOP A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVERNIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE GREATER AMBIENT SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
RESIDES.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
FALL APART THROUGH THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE
SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST.

THE CORE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET AND
DRY CONDITIONS. LATER MONDAY MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MAY BRING A SHOWER FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD TO
BRUSH BY FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL NOW BE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WHERE IT WILL CARRY AND DEEPEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FROM NEAR IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRENGTHENING ON THIS DEEPENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AND LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND AREAS JUST TO THE EAST AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION.

AFTER THIS WARM FRONT PASSES...AND WITH DAYTIME MIXING THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER THE
SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGH
CHANCES POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...AND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS A FEW
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
MAINLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ON A WESTERLY FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL START AROUND NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL THIS TIME PERIOD...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH
THE 40S...WITH WARMEST AREAS UNDER LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SUNDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...AND THAT AT LOW TO MID 50S.

AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION AND SKIES CLEAR...SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AGAIN WARMEST
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SOME LINGER LOW CLOUDS
WILL RESIDE.

GRADUALLY WARMING MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW
70S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE MODELS QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION...NEAR RECORD WARMTH SEEMS LESS LIKELY NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN TUESDAY...WITH MID 50S COMMON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A WINDIER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAKE
INDUCED RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO
TOWARD JAMESTOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY...WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 5K
FEET. THUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
LOW...AND HAVE LEFT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY SHIFTS NORTH AND EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY
SKC.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST HALF
OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS AND WAVES COMING
BACK DOWN THIS EVENING. ON LAKE ERIE CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING JUST BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE LOWER LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE ON BOTH LAKES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
THEN BECOME WEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE
FURTHER TO 30 KNOTS ON LAKE ONTARIO DURING THAT TIME FRAME AS COLD
AIR DEEPENS AND PROMOTES STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE LOWER LAKES BY MONDAY AND BRING AN END TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY
         FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241753
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING FULL SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE WITH SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LOWER CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE EAST
COAST STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CLIP MAINLY EASTERN LEWIS COUNTY WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. A PATCH OF
THICKER CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER VFR LEVEL CLOUDS FROM A
COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND TUG
HILL REGION AT TIMES. OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY
SKC.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER MICHIGAN
WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THIS WILL SPREAD A DECK OF
LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE REGION WITH A MIX OF LOW END VFR AND MVFR
CIGS. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST AND BREAK UP
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR. DURING THE AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT AND POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SHOWERS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. CIGS WILL
INITIALLY BE VFR AS THE SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. VSBY SHOULD STAY MAINLY VFR
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE
NORTH COUNTRY MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER
AND MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241442
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTY...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG
ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE CIRRUS UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE
ERIE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...BUT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL STILL FILTER THROUGH THE CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY. THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE
PLAY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NY...AND SOME LOWER VFR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241442
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS
LINGERING ACROSS GENESEE AND ORLEANS COUNTY...WITH SOME VALLEY FOG
ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE CIRRUS UPSTREAM ACROSS LAKE
ERIE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...BUT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WILL STILL FILTER THROUGH THE CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE EAST COAST SYSTEM WILL CLIP LEWIS
COUNTY. THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN A SQUEEZE
PLAY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WITH NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE.

WITH THE SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FEW PATCHES OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOME
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL
IFR THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE BURNING OFF.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH SOME CIRRUS LEVEL
CLOUDINESS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NY...AND SOME LOWER VFR LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE FINGER
LAKES EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE TODAY...AS ANY
PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXES
OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS OVER THE FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDE OFF TO OUR EAST AS THEIR PARENT SURFACE LOW
FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE/
DRIER AIR RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH THE
INCREASING SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND
+9C...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
THE WARMEST TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE TODAY...WITH ANY EARLY
MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MIXING OUT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING THIS MORNING...AND LEFTOVER LOW AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY RECEDING OFF TO OUR EAST
AS THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR
REGION.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR OR EVEN MVFR CLOUD COVER OVER
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240802
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
402 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE GENESEE
VALLEY EASTWARD GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL THEN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 08Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DICHOTOMY
IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BUFFALO CWA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THE
GENERAL RULE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS FOUND FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. WITHIN THIS
LATTER AREA...AREA RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...
WHERE A SWATH OF MORE LIMITED LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO BRUSH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
FURTHER UPSLOPING/NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP/EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AS
THEY ARE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE LARGER SWATH OF CLOUDS PERHAPS
SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE COASTAL LOW DRIFTS
A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY...AND A SLOW BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AREAWIDE...AS ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER MIXES OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND THE LEFTOVER
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS RECEDE EAST OF THE AREA
AS THEIR PARENT SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
RIDGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE. WITH THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND 925 MB TEMPS RUNNING BETWEEN +6C AND +9C...HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD LARGELY REACH INTO THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE TODAY...WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPS FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND THE WARMEST
TEMPS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARMER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OR SO
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING LOW CLOUDS OVER TIME...
WITH THIS TREND MOST PRONOUNCED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OTHERWISE...THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 40S. THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE...WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP READINGS
FROM FALLING BELOW THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE COUNTRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...AND AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OFF BRITISH COLUMBIA
WILL BE THE LATEST TO SUPPORT THIS PATTERN...AS IT WILL DIRECT A
DEEP PACIFIC FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE LOWER 48. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ANY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED
UP IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC.

MEANWHILE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AS A DIRECT RESULT OF A VERY POTENT UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST DURING REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE OVERALL FLOW PROGRESSIVE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THIS RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MORE ON THIS IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

A PAIR OF POTENT SHORTWAVES RACING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN A
130KT H25 JET WILL DIG OUT A FRESH LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC AS WE OPEN THIS PERIOD ON SATURDAY. A
CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
IN THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE DAY SHOULD BE
LARGELY PCPN FREE WITH ONLY SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WITH
QPF GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE ACTIVITY COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY (NORTH OF TUG). WILL
LEAVE LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THAT AREA. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH 50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SOMEWHAT CHILLY AIR WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OUR
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS
WILL DROP BELOW ZERO C AND THIS WILL SET UP ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE LAKES TO GENERATE SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. THE
BULK OF THESE WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ABUNDANT. OVER LAKE ERIE...A SERIOUS LACK OF
MOISTURE ABV 5K FT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY LAKE DRIVEN SHOWERS...
ALTHOUGH FAIRLY STRONG CHANNELLED VORTICITY OVER THE REGION COULD
HELP TO GENERATE SOME SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE NIGHT. MIN TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 40S.

IT WILL BE BRISK AND COOL ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AS WE WILL
FIND OURSELVES SANDWICHED BETWEEN DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A VERY COOL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR (ALBEIT
PACIFIC MODIFIED) OVER OUR REGION WITH MOST AREAS EXPERIENCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LK ONTARIO WHERE
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE CORE OF A STRONG UL JET.
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE TUG FROM CONTINUED
MESOSCALE LAKE DRIVEN PROCESSES...WHICH BY THE WAY WILL WEAKEN AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL THEN NOSE NORTH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ENSURE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH ANY LINGERING NUISANCE LAKE RAIN SHOWERS ENDING
EAST OF LK ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S.

ON MONDAY...BROAD RIDGING WILL CROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE
ENSUING WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR REGION WILL GENERATE SOME HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...BUT A WEALTH OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN A NICE DRY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE...SINUSOIDAL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THIS PERIOD...AND THIS WILL ENSURE THAT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE WARMEST DAY
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN A BROAD
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL PUMP ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR
ACROSS OUR REGION.

H85 TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO ARND 12C BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...
AND WHEN FULLY MIXED...THIS WOULD SUPPORT NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. RECORDS FOR TUESDAY INCLUDE BUF 74 IN 1946...
ROC 76 IN 1984...AND WATERTOWN 75 ALSO IN 1984. THERE WILL BE A COLD
FRONT BEARING DOWN ON THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SCREECHING HALT TO
THE SOARING TEMPS. THE FRONT IS SOME 3-6 HOURS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES.

SHOWERS FROM THE FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN
SET UP THE CHANCE FOR A MINIMAL LAKE RESPONSE WITH SOME SHOWERS EAST
OF LK ONTARIO.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A POOL OF PACIFICALLY
MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR WILL GLANCE BY TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COOL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 08Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DICHOTOMY
IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THE GENERAL
RULE ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOUND FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. WITHIN THIS LATTER AREA...
LOWER-END VFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOMINANT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...
WHERE A SWATH OF MORE LIMITED IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO BRUSH ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS...
FURTHER UPSLOPING/NOCTURNAL COOLING MAY HELP THESE LOWER CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP/EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AS
THEY ARE THROUGH SUNRISE...WITH THE LARGER SWATH OF CLOUDS PERHAPS
SHIFTING A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE COASTAL LOW DRIFTS
A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY...AND A SLOW BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPS TO SPREAD SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EASTWARD INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AREAWIDE...WITH ANY EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER MIXING OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND LEFTOVER
CEILINGS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY FINALLY RECEDING
EAST OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN TURN...THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...WITH
SOME MVFR CIGS PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS...A MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY
TODAY AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...BEFORE WEAKENING
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WHILE IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END
ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AREAWIDE.

OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES
REGION...AND SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SOLID ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES...BEGINNING SATURDAY
MORNING ON LAKE ERIE...AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR










000
FXUS61 KBUF 240613
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
213 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE
DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE
FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT
AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS
WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN
NATURE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE DICHOTOMY IN CLOUD COVER...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO
THE MID 40S FURTHER EAST.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD. IN THIS LATTER REGION...LOWER-END VFR
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOMINANT...SAVE FOR SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.

THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE WINDS...THIS WILL HELP THE
DRIER AIR CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TO ADVECT A LITTLE
FURTHER EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND PERHAPS EVEN THE
FAR WESTERN FINGER LAKES. FURTHER EAST...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH VFR/MVFR CIGS PERSISTING.

THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT IS OVER FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...WHERE THE CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
GREATER AMOUNTS OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME IFR PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS. AT PRESENT...
IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SUCH DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE NARROWER T-TD SPREADS ACROSS THAT
AREA...WHILE AREAS FURTHER TO NORTH WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG GIVEN BOTH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR...AND THE FACT THAT WINDS
WILL BE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THUS LESS UPSLOPE IN
NATURE.

ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE...WITH ANY
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS MIXING OUT WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AND
LEFTOVER CEILINGS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY FINALLY
RECEDING EAST OF THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH THEIR PARENT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED RIDGING WILL SLIDE FROM
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEW YORK. ON ITS BACKSIDE...THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WESTERLY THROUGH THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THIS WILL HELP ADVECT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
IN TURN...THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN LOWER-END VFR CLOUD
COVER OVER TIME...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS PERHAPS EVEN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR










000
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES...AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EAST OF BUFFALO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WINDS PREVENT GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR
FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER DUE TO COOLING AND A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 02Z...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT ART LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1K FT ACROSS
NW PA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE COULD SPREAD
INTO JHW OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS OR
FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BUF/IAG HOWEVER WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL
KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LOW
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240243
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1043 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING
AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING JUST A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SPRINKLES...AREAS EAST OF ROCHESTER WILL MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. POPS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

EAST OF BUFFALO...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WHICH HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A BIT. 11U-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW PA AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
INCREASES BUT WINDS PREVENT GROUND FOG FROM FORMING. IT IS ALSO
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NAM/RUC BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND THE HRRR
FORECAST SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER DUE TO COOLING AND A MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 02Z...WITH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETREAT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS AT ART LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT
AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERHAPS THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS OR FOG TO DEVELOP IN WESTERN AREAS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED
OUT. 11-3.9U SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1K FT ACROSS
NW PA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. THESE COULD SPREAD
INTO JHW OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PATCHY STRATUS OR
FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR BUF/IAG HOWEVER WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL
KEEP THIS OUT OF THE TAF GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION. LOW
MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240003
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
803 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING
ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW HAS PUSHED SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS INTO
NORTHERN NEW YORK...BUT SHOWERS HAVE FALLEN APART AS THEY
ENCOUNTER DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL
BE DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES THIS EVENING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. CLOUDS WILL SPREAD TO THE WEST THIS
EVENING BEFORE RETREATING LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. HAVE SCALED BACK POPS FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE AS RADAR DISPLAYS RATHER SPARSE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SHOWERS ENDING
AND A GENERAL WEST TO EAST CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. NAM/RUC BUFKIT SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WESTERN AREAS
WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH A
MODEST FLOW...THIS COULD JUST MIX OUT...OR THERE COULD BE PATCHY
AREAS OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO SOME
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG ELSEWHERE
DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM OHIO ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING TO SPREAD FROM W-E. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE IS A SHARP CLEARING LINE JUST WEST OF ROC AT 00Z. THIS WILL
MEANDER THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FT AT ROC...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECT
BUF/IAG/JHW TO ALSO BE VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. AFTER
THAT...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE. COVERAGE OF THIS SHOULD
BE SPARSE...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE FOR ANY GIVEN TAF LOCATION...BUT
IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBY IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z AT
BUF/IAG/JHW. LOW MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

AT ART...MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER WILL LINGER THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND ALLOWS DRIER AIR TO RAISE CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED
THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO BE DROPPED. AFTER
THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/CHURCH/JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 231940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW IS PUSHING AN
ENHANCED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO LEWIS COUNTY...FROM EAST TO WEST...AND THIS WESTWARD
PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL BACK OUT TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SHARP CUT-OFF IN CLOUD COVER REMAINS
IN PLACE NEAR ROCHESTER...WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST AND OVERCAST
SKIES TO THE EAST. THIS CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CAPE COD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY...A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW IS PUSHING AN
ENHANCED BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK INTO THE
AREA EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. RADAR IMAGERY AS OF 19Z SHOWS SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO LEWIS COUNTY...FROM EAST TO WEST...AND THIS WESTWARD
PUSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
THE PRECIPITATION WILL PULL BACK OUT TO THE EAST. DRIER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE EASTWARD RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES. A SHARP CUT-OFF IN CLOUD COVER REMAINS
IN PLACE NEAR ROCHESTER...WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST AND OVERCAST
SKIES TO THE EAST. THIS CLOUD COVER...LIKE THE PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED BACK TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CLEAR FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE LIGHTER WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF GENESEE VALLEY WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE FOUND ALOFT OVER OUR
REGION...WHICH WILL LIE BETWEEN A CUT OFF LOW EXITING OFF THE
ATLANTIC CANADA COASTLINE AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THIS RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR DRY
CONDITIONS...THOUGH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AS WE WARM
ALOFT...AND MOISTURE INCREASES.

WE MAY START TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR LAKE ERIE SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY WILL BE TOWARDS
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AREAS NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES
AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN ONTARIO/NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH THE DAY.
GREATEST LIFT AND LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIE NORTHWARD CLOSER
TO THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WITH LOW CHANCES POPS DOWN
NEAR THE STATE LINE.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DROP ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE JUST ENOUGH UNSTABLE (-1C 850 HPA) AND WITH A
GREAT ENOUGH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL (15K FEET) TO GENERATE A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR LAKE ERIE
AMBIENT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY JUST PRODUCE CLOUDS...WITH NO
BANDS OF RAIN. IN ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE...THERE WILL
LINGER ENOUGH LIFT UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO STILL GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SYNOPTIC SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

AS LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME POORER...AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING THE BAND OF RAIN OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL FALL APART THROUGH
THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP TOWARDS WESTERN
NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

A BIT OF WARMTH WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COOLER DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOW TO MID
40S...WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
GO CALM. IN FACT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE 30S THAN 40S DEGREE
READINGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD REMAIN FAIR AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS FAR ENOUGH WESTWARD JUST KEEP OUR AREA DRY. WITH OUR AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT...A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD WARMTH WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE NEAR AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT
ABUNDANT DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST HIGH CHANCE POPS ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AT THIS TIME.

BEHIND THE FRONT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW WITH 850 HPA DROPPING
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE ANOTHER
LAKE RESPONSE OFF BOTH LAKES WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRING CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL
WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...CHURCH/JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231735
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES WEST OF KROC. KROC WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF A
SCT-BKN 4-6K FOOT CLOUD DECK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KART WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
LOW WITH VFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO MVFR BY
THIS EVENING. NORTHERLY COMPONENT WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS
SOME LOW RISK THAT MVFR CIGS MAY NUDGE WESTWARD ENOUGH TO REACH
KROC...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN AT KART...
POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER TO IFR FOR A TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR/TMA
MARINE...JJR






000
FXUS61 KBUF 231432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231432
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH/JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME IFR STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND/OR MIX OUT
OVER TIME.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN A CONTINUED 40-45 KNOT
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT 2 KFT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
549 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
549 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER
EARLY MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF LK
ONTARIO AND IN SOME OF THE DEEPER SRN TIER VALLEYS WHERE READINGS
WILL SETTLE INTO THE 30S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...
GIVEN THE LACK OF `COLD` AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN LATITUDES OF NORTH
AMERICA...IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH HALLOWEEN AND INTO THE START OF NOVEMBER. IN FACT...
IF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE MERCURY
COULD CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER EARLY
MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
417 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY AND FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE
SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
NOVA SCOTIA. WHILE THE WORST EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL
TO OUR EAST...MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND ITS
WESTERN PERIPHERY SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FURTHER TO THE WEST...SHOWER CHANCES SHOULD
DROP OFF SHARPLY WITH INCREASING WESTWARD EXTENT...WITH AREAS FROM
THE GENESEE VALLEY/WESTERNMOST FINGER LAKES WESTWARD LIKELY TO
REMAIN TOTALLY DRY.

IN TERMS OF THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...THIS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WESTWARD...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
A SHARP GRADIENT SEPARATING THESE CLOUDS FROM MOSTLY SUNNY/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER/WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. DEPENDENT UPON THE EROSION OF ANY CURRENT LEFTOVER
LOW CLOUDS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD ALSO SEE SOME
AREAS OF FOG TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A NOTABLE EAST-WEST GRADIENT IN HIGHS
TODAY GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRECIP CHANCES AND
SKY COVER...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS /M-U40S/ FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE WARMEST TEMPS /U50S/ ACROSS
FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL THEN FALL TO THE 40-45
DEGREE RANGE...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS FOUND ACROSS THE NORMALLY
COOLER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES. MUCH OF THE
CREDIT FOR THE LACK OF COLD  WEATHER WILL BE GIVEN TO A DEEP PACIFIC
BASED ZONAL FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY...WHICH WILL BLOCK ANY REAL COLD
AIR FROM PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

ONE CAN TELL THAT THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR AWHILE...AS
THERE IS REALLY NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE IN NORTH AMERICA. THE ZERO H85
ISOTHERM IS LARGELY NORTH OF 60N LATITUDE. IN ANY CASE...THIS
PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 140KT H25 JET
THAT WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE WESTERN CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE THIS
WILL INITIALLY HELP TO FLOOD THE LOWER 48 WITH MILD PACIFIC AIR...
THE ENERGY WITHIN THIS JET WILL ULTIMATELY SPAWN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE WEEKEND. UNLIKE THIS PAST UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION THOUGH...THIS NEXT FEATURE WILL HAVE A SHORT DURATION
IMPACT ON OUR REGION. GETTING INTO THE DETAILS...

ON FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SLOWLY PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHILE SURFACE BASED
RIDGING WILL WORK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH A LEFTOVER EARLY
MORNING SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A WEAK RIDGE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 140KT
H25 JET WILL PLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ENSUING WARM
ADVECTIVE PATTERN WILL HELP TO HOLD UP OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

ON SATURDAY...THE POWERFUL H25 JET (+3 STD) AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THAT WILL GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH...WILL FALL EAST OF LK
ONTARIO. WILL RAISE POPS TO HIGH LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND
KEEP CHC POPS ELSEWHERE WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

MUCH COOLER...ALBEIT IT PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR WILL THEN CHARGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRESH AIRMASS WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE VCNTY OF -1C WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LAKE
RESPONSE EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WHILE CHANNELLED VORTICITY WITHIN A
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME NUISANCE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH SHOULD BE PCPN FREE.

ON SUNDAY...A BROAD RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE NATIONS MID
SECTION WHILE A MATURE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TEMPORARILY ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
REGION WITHIN A DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH DISORGANIZED LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS BEING CONCENTRATED EAST OF LK ONTARIO. WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO CONTEND
WITH...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY PCPN. TEMPS SUNDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO COLD AIR IN SIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL AVERAGE A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL LATE
OCTOBER VALUES DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION...A
RELATIVELY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW HAS DOMINATED THE PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK TO TEN DAYS. THE RESULT OF THIS
HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE LACK OF ANY COLD AIR...EVEN OVER THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF CANADA. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE LOWER 48
DURING THIS PERIOD...SO TOO WILL THE WARMTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 50S FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S FOR MANY AREAS AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE EVENT ON TUESDAY.

THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE UPCOMING STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A
PAIR OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY ROTATING ABOUT A DEEP CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE POTENT BUNDLES OF ENERGY WILL
SLAM INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WHILE A BROAD
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL PUSH OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW
WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE FINE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS
FOR OUTDOOR FALL ACTIVITIES.

ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH...A CUTTER STORM LIFTING NORTH FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SLING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL END OUR STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WHILE PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
MORNING...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z-13Z ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH 12Z-13Z THIS MORNING GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM OUR AREA TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN...WHICH
WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES IN THIS REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AFTER THAT...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER LAKES AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230603
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
203 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 06Z...DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
COASTAL LOW HAS LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED CLEARING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS NOW
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER/INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES AND RECEDING SOUTHWARD. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...
EXPECT EVEN THESE LATTER AREAS TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG SUBSEQUENTLY
DEVELOPING GIVEN ALREADY NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

MEANWHILE...FURTHER EAST PARTIAL CLOUD COVER IS FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE COASTAL
SYSTEM...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE AT LEAST SOME AGAIN ACROSS THIS
REGION AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO REACHING LEWIS COUNTY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. TOMORROW
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER FARTHER WESTWARD
50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE TAF PERIOD...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WHILE THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY LATER THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING...BY AND LARGE MAINLY DRY VFR WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. AN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH 12-13Z THURSDAY...WHERE SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG/VERY LOW
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE SOME CLEARING DEVELOPS.

ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY /INCLUDING KART/...LLWS WILL LINGER THROUGH
12Z-13Z THURSDAY GIVEN CONTINUED 45 KT WINDS AT 2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230330
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1130 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD LATE THIS
EVENING. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH A SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THIS LOW EXITING SOUTH
OF OUR CWA. AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER
AIR TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE ARE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT
EVENTUALLY PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY
MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 03Z...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST TAF SITES. A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER
CIGS IS STILL POSSIBLE AT JHW. ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. VWP SHOWS 45 KT
WINDS AT 2K FT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LLWS IN THE ART TAF. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CLIPPING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 01Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS REACHED ROC/JHW...AND RAISED CIGS TO MVFR AT THESE
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT JHW. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230132
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
932 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING.
OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CLIPPING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AFTER THIS...SATELLITE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTH...WHICH SHOULD KEEP WESTERN NEW YORK DRY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE PIVOT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AROUND THIS SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

DRIER AIR ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS HAS HELPED REDUCE FOG ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEANWHILE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST A PARTIAL CLEARING
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER LATER TONIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPING SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 01Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DRIER AIR
HAS REACHED ROC/JHW...AND RAISED CIGS TO MVFR AT THESE
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER A PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT JHW. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 222345
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
745 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGIONS. ANOTHER FASTER MOVING SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS...BEFORE SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EARLY THIS EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF
CAPE COD. OUR REGION IS ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO PERIODICALLY
CLIP EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN DRY.
AT 700 PM...RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SHOULD PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE NEXT WAVE IN TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. 18Z
RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM AND THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR KEEP MOST OF
THE QPF TO OUR EAST...OUTSIDE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ALREADY CLIPPING
LEWIS COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK
AS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE SAME AREA. OTHERWISE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME FOG ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...HOWEVER IR SATELLITE SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR WORKING IN WHICH MAY HELP DISSIPATE SOME OF THE FOG LATE
TONIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW EXPECT THE RAIN SHOWERS TO THE EAST TO FILL WESTWARD
SOME AS LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ADDED CONVERGENCE INCREASES.
YET...WESTWARD TO ABOUT THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUTOFF TO THE PRECIPITATION WITH AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE
VALLEY AGAIN LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY TOMORROW.

ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD FILL IN WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
LAKES. INTERIOR SECTIONS MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
WHEN DRIER AIR FINALLY HELPS MIX OUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THICK THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...THOUGH THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH DRY AIR REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK FOR PERIODS OF
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT FALLING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER WHICH CLEAR OUT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. HOWEVER
FARTHER WESTWARD 50S WILL BE FOUND...AND POTENTIALLY MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK IF A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE DEEP COASTAL LOW OFF CAPE COD. THE
LOW WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY.
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
LOW IN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY MAINTAINING WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RENEWED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 50S FRIDAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...BUT
HAVING A MUCH BETTER RUN AT THE 60S SATURDAY IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND LOW CLOUD COVER LESSENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A POTENT FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN
ONTARIO WILL IMPACT THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF
THE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM ALL AREAS
COULD SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE THE AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A
COLD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.
CRITICAL TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...BUT OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
A BIT OF SNOW MIXING IN VERY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW LATER SUNDAY AS RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. IN FACT...SOME AREAS
MAY BE BASKING IN THE LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.

PATTERN BECOMES UNSETTLED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS TROUGHING
ALOFT EXPANDS FROM THE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL
WORK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR AND
MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH ANY SHORTWAVES WORKING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH PROBABLY TOUCHING OFF
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 23Z DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN NORTHWEST OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH IS
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. FOR BUF/IAG THIS WILL PROBABLY BRING VFR WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ITS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THIS DRIER AIR REACHES JHW...WITH
FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING...AND POSSIBLY THE REST OF THE NIGHT DEPENDING HOW
PERSISTENT LOW MOISTURE REMAINS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT ON THURSDAY AS
DRIER AIR FINALLY MIXES IN. BUF/IAG/JHW/ROC SHOULD ALL IMPROVE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

FOR ART...EXPECT PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS. BASED ON RUC/NAM
FORECASTS...HAVE ADDED LLWS TO ART WHERE A 40KT NE FLOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND TO LAST OVERNIGHT.
PERIODIC BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR SHOWERS/CIGS
LIKELY AT ART.
SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
ALLOWED US TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THERE. MEANWHILE A
BRISK FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO THIS
EVENING...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS WILL PICK UP TO STRONG
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NEAR 30 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
BASED ON THIS HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINES A BIT LONGER FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINES.

ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH WINDS AND WAVES
AGAIN RISING TO ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







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