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000
FXUS61 KBUF 040406
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PAST 18
HOURS...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST. WHILE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...NEW ICE RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LEFTOVER POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES THOUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE IN THAT AREA UNTIL 4 AM.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE MERCURY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN
MOST AREA OVERNIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 40 OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THE LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WILL THEN START A TREND OF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE NY NEARSHORES OF LK ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 040406
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PAST 18
HOURS...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST. WHILE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...NEW ICE RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LEFTOVER POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES THOUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE IN THAT AREA UNTIL 4 AM.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE MERCURY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN
MOST AREA OVERNIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 40 OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THE LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WILL THEN START A TREND OF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE NY NEARSHORES OF LK ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 040406
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PAST 18
HOURS...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST. WHILE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...NEW ICE RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LEFTOVER POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES THOUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE IN THAT AREA UNTIL 4 AM.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE MERCURY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN
MOST AREA OVERNIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 40 OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THE LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WILL THEN START A TREND OF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE NY NEARSHORES OF LK ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 040406
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1106 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE PAST 18
HOURS...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION HAS NOW PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST. WHILE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...NEW ICE RELATED PROBLEMS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME LEFTOVER POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE FINGER LAKES THOUGH...SO WILL LEAVE THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE IN THAT AREA UNTIL 4 AM.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...THE MERCURY WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN
MOST AREA OVERNIGHT TO AS HIGH AS 40 OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
THE LOW TO MID 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WILL THEN START A TREND OF LOWERING
TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...IFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF A STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL JUSTIFY KEEPING A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE NY NEARSHORES OF LK ONTARIO.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID WEST AND OHIO VALLEY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 040010
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...BUT DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOW THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS PUSHING OFF TO OUR
EAST. AS OF 00Z...SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE STEADY PRECIPITATION WAS PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF WET SNOW AND SLEET EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LATTER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO ELEVATE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...NEAR SFC
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY 06Z.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL USHER THE NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO WARMER AIR
FLOWING OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (MIXED PCPN EAST OF LK ONTARIO) EARLY...THE PCPN
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN
BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KBUF 040010
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...BUT DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOW THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS PUSHING OFF TO OUR
EAST. AS OF 00Z...SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE STEADY PRECIPITATION WAS PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF WET SNOW AND SLEET EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LATTER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO ELEVATE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...NEAR SFC
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY 06Z.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL USHER THE NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO WARMER AIR
FLOWING OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (MIXED PCPN EAST OF LK ONTARIO) EARLY...THE PCPN
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN
BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KBUF 040010
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
710 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES PRODUCED
WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...BUT DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO SOME ALL TOO FAMILIAR FRIGID WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM PRODUCED A WIDE VARIETY OF ACCUMULATING
WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT NOW THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION IS PUSHING OFF TO OUR
EAST. AS OF 00Z...SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES WHILE STEADY PRECIPITATION WAS PRIMARILY IN THE
FORM OF WET SNOW AND SLEET EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS LATTER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS MODERATELY STRONG WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO ELEVATE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. IN FACT...NEAR SFC
TEMPS WILL APPROACH 40 ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY 06Z.

LATER TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL USHER THE NEXT BATCH OF COLDER AIR
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WITH ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE VERY BRIEF BOUT OF MILDER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY
TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC. AFTER MORNING HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
SINK BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.

THE SLOW RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY MAINLY PCPN FREE CONDITIONS...EXCEPT LEFTOVER MORNING SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX STORM
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS OF IFR VSBYS DUE TO WARMER AIR
FLOWING OVER A DEEP SNOWPACK. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (MIXED PCPN EAST OF LK ONTARIO) EARLY...THE PCPN
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE MID WESTERN
STATES.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN
BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KBUF 032103
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AND REGION WILL BRIEFLY ENCOUNTER MILDER AIR. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MORNING. ANOTHER POLAR HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK AND KEEP COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
REGION.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE OVERNIGHT WARMER AIR WILL MAKE A BRIEF APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL POLARIZATION RADAR
SHOW MIXED PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TO ABOVE FREEZING AND THEN
DROP TOWARD MORNING. HAVE USED THE MAV GUIDANCE WITH SOME CHANGES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

SYNOPTICALLY DURING THIS PERIOD ANOTHER COLD HIGH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE ICE FREE AREA ON LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO THE 4-6KFT RANGE WHICH MAY SUPPORT MINOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE
OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE FRIGID AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
-20C. SOME WARMING CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE ADVANCE OF WARM AIR
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE INITIAL ADVANCE OF SNOW WHICH WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIX PRECIPITATION AND TO JUST PLAIN RAIN FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
HAVE REACHED ALL THE WESTERN TAF SITES FROM ROC TO JHW AND POINTS
WEST. WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ALREADY AT
ERI HAVE USED THE HOURLY SSEO AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR GUIDANCE ON
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE
HAVING TROUBLE WARMING OVER OHIO AND PA SO SOME DELAY IN RISING
ABOVE FREEZING MAY BE WARRANTED OVER NY. NEAR ART CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PREVENT A COMPLETE CHANGE TO JUST
RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LAKE ERIE BEING
SNOW AND ICE COVERED TYPICAL WARMING FROM THAT DIRECTION MAY BE
MUTED THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE SOMEWHAT MILD AND
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AND ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO MVFR.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

SEVERAL HOURS OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN
BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS
LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.



&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KBUF 031823
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
123 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MORNING UPDATE. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
EXTENDING FROM CHI TO NEAR NYC ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 300 MB JET
CORE OF AROUND 130 KT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO NEAR FAR
SW NEW YORK STATE. MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS WEST. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
PLAIN TO CHANGE ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN TOWARD EVENING OVER
AND SOUTHWEST OF BUF. THE CHANGE TO ALL RAIN MAY EXTEND EAST OF
ROC ALONG THE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE THIS EVENING WHILE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAY REMAIN MIXED NEAR
ELZ. MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO
LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN CO THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS SHOWING UP NICELY IN THE FORM OF A BROAD
SWATH OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN FACT THE HIGH
CLOUDS FORMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR WNY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
SUNRISE.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY AROUND
NOONTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE ADVANCE OF WARM AIR
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE INITIAL ADVANCE OF SNOW WHICH WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIX PRECIPITATION AND TO JUST PLAIN RAIN FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
HAVE REACHED ALL THE WESTERN TAF SITES FROM ROC TO JHW AND POINTS
WEST. WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ALREADY AT
ERI HAVE USED THE HOURLY SSEO AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR GUIDANCE ON
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE
HAVING TROUBLE WARMING OVER OHIO AND PA SO SOME DELAY IN RISING
ABOVE FREEZING MAY BE WARRANTED OVER NY. NEAR ART CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PREVENT A COMPLETE CHANGE TO JUST
RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LAKE ERIE BEING
SNOW AND ICE COVERED TYPICAL WARMING FROM THAT DIRECTION MAY BE
MUTED THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE SOMEWHAT MILD AND
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AND ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO MVFR.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-
     002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KBUF 031823
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
123 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MORNING UPDATE. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
EXTENDING FROM CHI TO NEAR NYC ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 300 MB JET
CORE OF AROUND 130 KT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO NEAR FAR
SW NEW YORK STATE. MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS WEST. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
PLAIN TO CHANGE ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN TOWARD EVENING OVER
AND SOUTHWEST OF BUF. THE CHANGE TO ALL RAIN MAY EXTEND EAST OF
ROC ALONG THE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE THIS EVENING WHILE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAY REMAIN MIXED NEAR
ELZ. MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO
LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN CO THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS SHOWING UP NICELY IN THE FORM OF A BROAD
SWATH OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN FACT THE HIGH
CLOUDS FORMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR WNY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
SUNRISE.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY AROUND
NOONTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE ADVANCE OF WARM AIR
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE INITIAL ADVANCE OF SNOW WHICH WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MIX PRECIPITATION AND TO JUST PLAIN RAIN FOR
A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW ARE ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
HAVE REACHED ALL THE WESTERN TAF SITES FROM ROC TO JHW AND POINTS
WEST. WITH RAPID WARMING ALOFT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ALREADY AT
ERI HAVE USED THE HOURLY SSEO AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR GUIDANCE ON
TIMING THE PRECIPITATION CHANGE, THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TO BE
HAVING TROUBLE WARMING OVER OHIO AND PA SO SOME DELAY IN RISING
ABOVE FREEZING MAY BE WARRANTED OVER NY. NEAR ART CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PREVENT A COMPLETE CHANGE TO JUST
RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LAKE ERIE BEING
SNOW AND ICE COVERED TYPICAL WARMING FROM THAT DIRECTION MAY BE
MUTED THIS EVENING. EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO BE SOMEWHAT MILD AND
JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AND ALLOW CIGS TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TO MVFR.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-
     002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KBUF 031526
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MORNING UPDATE. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
EXTENDING FROM CHI TO NEAR NYC ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 300 MB JET
CORE OF AROUND 130 KT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO NEAR FAR
SW NEW YORK STATE. MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS WEST. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
PLAIN TO CHANGE ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN TOWARD EVENING OVER
AND SOUTHWEST OF BUF. THE CHANGE TO ALL RAIN MAY EXTEND EAST OF
ROC ALONG THE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE THIS EVENING WHILE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAY REMAIN MIXED NEAR
ELZ. MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO
LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN CO THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS SHOWING UP NICELY IN THE FORM OF A BROAD
SWATH OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN FACT THE HIGH
CLOUDS FORMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR WNY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
SUNRISE.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY AROUND
NOONTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING FIRST A BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO ARRIVE ACROSS
KJHW/KBUF/KIAG BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z...KROC/KART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT ONLY BRING MILDER AIR
NORTHWARD...BUT ALSO BRING POSSIBLE LLWS. WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE
WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT WOULD
MINIMIZE THE LLWS POTENTIAL.

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD
WILL TRANSITION THIS SNOW OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LATER THIS
EVENING PLAIN RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION...TO MVFR NEAR THE LAKES AND IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MVFR WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-
     002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS61 KBUF 031526
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1026 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MORNING UPDATE. WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS UNDER WAY ACROSS THE REGION IN
RESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
EXTENDING FROM CHI TO NEAR NYC ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 300 MB JET
CORE OF AROUND 130 KT. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A RATHER
EXTENSIVE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN INDIANA TO NEAR FAR
SW NEW YORK STATE. MIXED PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-90 THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND POINTS WEST. CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE
PLAIN TO CHANGE ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO RAIN TOWARD EVENING OVER
AND SOUTHWEST OF BUF. THE CHANGE TO ALL RAIN MAY EXTEND EAST OF
ROC ALONG THE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE THIS EVENING WHILE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAY REMAIN MIXED NEAR
ELZ. MADE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO
LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN CO THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD
BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS SHOWING UP NICELY IN THE FORM OF A BROAD
SWATH OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN FACT THE HIGH
CLOUDS FORMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE PUSHING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS FAR WNY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE
SUNRISE.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY AROUND
NOONTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING FIRST A BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO ARRIVE ACROSS
KJHW/KBUF/KIAG BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z...KROC/KART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT ONLY BRING MILDER AIR
NORTHWARD...BUT ALSO BRING POSSIBLE LLWS. WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE
WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT WOULD
MINIMIZE THE LLWS POTENTIAL.

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD
WILL TRANSITION THIS SNOW OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LATER THIS
EVENING PLAIN RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION...TO MVFR NEAR THE LAKES AND IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MVFR WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-
     002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS61 KBUF 031154
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER
NORTHERN CO THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS
SHOWING UP NICELY IN THE FORM OF A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN FACT THE HIGH CLOUDS FORMING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
FAR WNY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY AROUND
NOONTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING FIRST A BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO ARRIVE ACROSS
KJHW/KBUF/KIAG BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z...KROC/KART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT ONLY BRING MILDER AIR
NORTHWARD...BUT ALSO BRING POSSIBLE LLWS. WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE
WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT WOULD
MINIMIZE THE LLWS POTENTIAL.

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD
WILL TRANSITION THIS SNOW OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LATER THIS
EVENING PLAIN RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION...TO MVFR NEAR THE LAKES AND IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MVFR WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
THIS EVENING. BASIN QPF RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO-TENTHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES TO
AS MUCH AS ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK OF 1-2
FEET CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY ABSORB THE MAJORITY OF THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH NO
PROBLEM. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT BEFORE SINKING
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THAW SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIMITED ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE RISK OF ANY ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A RISK OF PONDING OF
WATER WHERE DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY SNOW TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 031154
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER
NORTHERN CO THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS
SHOWING UP NICELY IN THE FORM OF A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN FACT THE HIGH CLOUDS FORMING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
FAR WNY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY AROUND
NOONTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING FIRST A BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO ARRIVE ACROSS
KJHW/KBUF/KIAG BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z...KROC/KART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT ONLY BRING MILDER AIR
NORTHWARD...BUT ALSO BRING POSSIBLE LLWS. WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE
WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT WOULD
MINIMIZE THE LLWS POTENTIAL.

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD
WILL TRANSITION THIS SNOW OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LATER THIS
EVENING PLAIN RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION...TO MVFR NEAR THE LAKES AND IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MVFR WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
THIS EVENING. BASIN QPF RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO-TENTHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES TO
AS MUCH AS ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK OF 1-2
FEET CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY ABSORB THE MAJORITY OF THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH NO
PROBLEM. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT BEFORE SINKING
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THAW SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIMITED ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE RISK OF ANY ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A RISK OF PONDING OF
WATER WHERE DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY SNOW TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 031154
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER
NORTHERN CO THIS MORNING WHILE A BROAD BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS
SHOWING UP NICELY IN THE FORM OF A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUD COVER
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN FACT THE HIGH CLOUDS FORMING THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. AS CLOUDS THICKEN THROUGH THE MORNING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
FAR WNY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY AROUND
NOONTIME AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC
UPLIFT BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL
PROFILES WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 12Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING FIRST A BURST OF
SNOW WITH IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO ARRIVE ACROSS
KJHW/KBUF/KIAG BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z...KROC/KART BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z.

A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL NOT ONLY BRING MILDER AIR
NORTHWARD...BUT ALSO BRING POSSIBLE LLWS. WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME MIXING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE
WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT WOULD
MINIMIZE THE LLWS POTENTIAL.

AFTER A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW WARMER AIR ADVANCING NORTHWARD
WILL TRANSITION THIS SNOW OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND LATER THIS
EVENING PLAIN RAIN. THERE MAY BE A MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS.

COLDER AIR WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CHANGE THE RAIN BACK TO SNOW. ADDITIONALLY CLOUDS WILL LOWER ACROSS
THE REGION...TO MVFR NEAR THE LAKES AND IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE VEERING AROUND TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THURSDAY...MVFR WITH
A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
THIS EVENING. BASIN QPF RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO-TENTHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES TO
AS MUCH AS ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK OF 1-2
FEET CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY ABSORB THE MAJORITY OF THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH NO
PROBLEM. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT BEFORE SINKING
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THAW SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIMITED ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE RISK OF ANY ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A RISK OF PONDING OF
WATER WHERE DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY SNOW TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 030835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN CO THIS
MORNING WHILE A BROAD BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS SHOWING UP NICELY IN
THE FORM OF A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN
FACT THE HIGH CLOUDS FORMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE
PUSHING INTO WNY EARLY THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WNY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE TEENS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OVERHEAD.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT
BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH CIGS LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
AROUND/AFTER 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIP THERE TO
REVERT BACK TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
THIS EVENING. BASIN QPF RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO-TENTHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES TO
AS MUCH AS ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK OF 1-2
FEET CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY ABSORB THE MAJORITY OF THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH NO
PROBLEM. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT BEFORE SINKING
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THAW SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIMITED ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE RISK OF ANY ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A RISK OF PONDING OF
WATER WHERE DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY SNOW TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 030835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 30S TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WINTRY MIX WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BRINGING SNOW...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON CHANGING OVER TO RAIN TONIGHT. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THERE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING UP TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY HELPING
TO DRIVE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
BY THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT THE
MUCH ANTICIPATED COLORADO LOW IS TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTHERN CO THIS
MORNING WHILE A BROAD BAND OF WARM ADVECTION IS SHOWING UP NICELY IN
THE FORM OF A BROAD SWATH OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS OH/W PA. IN
FACT THE HIGH CLOUDS FORMING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND ARE
PUSHING INTO WNY EARLY THIS MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS FAR WNY REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BACK INTO THE TEENS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OVERHEAD.

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO FAR SW NY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A ZONE OF DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT
BEING SUPPORTED BY A 50 TO 70KT 850MB JET ARRIVES. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL INITIALLY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW TO START
WITH...HOWEVER AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ALOFT ABOVE A STUBBORN
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE LAYER WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD RISK FOR
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PWATS
CLIMBING IN EXCESS OF 0.75"...QPF RANGING FROM A COUPLE OF TENTHS TO
A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...DISTRIBUTED ACROSS
SEVERAL PRECIP TYPES DEPENDING ON ELEVATION AND TIMING. IN GENERAL
MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO OF WET SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN.
DOWNSLOPING UNDER BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
ALONG LAKE ERIE...ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...NORTH OF THE FINGER
LAKES TO AROUND A TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP WHILE AMOUNTS ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE FINGER LAKES MAY
RUN AS HIGH AS A THIRD OF AN INCH OR MORE. AGAIN...GIVEN THAT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOVER NEAR/JUST BELOW
FREEZING...MUCH OF THIS PRECIP IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING IN WHAT COULD SHAPE UP TO BE A VERY
HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE THIS EVENING INDEED. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR ALL OF THESE HAZARDS.

COLDER ANTECEDENT AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY COMBINED
WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
GREATER SNOWFALL TOTALS TO START WITH...GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES WITH 2-4
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL INITIALLY. HOWEVER EVEN THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BY THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIP SWAPPING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME. EVENTUALLY
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...BY THIS POINT MORE OF AN
OPEN WAVE...PASSES ACROSS GEORGIAN BAY AND THE OTTAWA VALLEY. THIS
WILL ALLOW LINGERING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN WITH PRECIP
MIXING BACK INTO SNOW OR PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE TUG HILL WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE
FREEZING MARK AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY REVERT BACK TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL
INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING COLDER AIR MASS WILL
CHANGE ANY PRECIPITATION WHICH REMAINS BACK OVER TO SNOW.

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITHIN A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS RISING TO 6-8KFT
FOR A PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...SUPPORTING AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS FOR AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DOWNWIND OF THE OPEN WATER.

THURSDAY WILL BE A COLD DAY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 20 WITH
A DEEP POOL OF ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL NEW
YORK. WIND CHILL VALUES LIKELY AS COLD AS 5 BELOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH CIGS LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN
AROUND/AFTER 00Z. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE
SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY CAUSE PRECIP THERE TO
REVERT BACK TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY. FRESH
WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REST OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND LASTING THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE
SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN
PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
PRECIPITATION STARTING AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN AND EVENTUALLY RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY
THIS EVENING. BASIN QPF RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO-TENTHS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES TO
AS MUCH AS ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWPACK OF 1-2
FEET CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
LIKELY ABSORB THE MAJORITY OF THE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WITH NO
PROBLEM. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT BEFORE SINKING
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS THAW SHOULD BE
BRIEF AND LIMITED ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE RISK OF ANY ICE JAM
FLOODING AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A RISK OF PONDING OF
WATER WHERE DRAINS ARE BLOCKED BY SNOW TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...WOOD










000
FXUS61 KBUF 030632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES
FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 030632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES
FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBUF 030632
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
132 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND/AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE...RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES
FRESHEN AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE
NORTH OF THE LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
         WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD



WOOD







000
FXUS61 KBUF 030403
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
BEING NEEDED AT THAT TIME. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN
AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 030403
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1103 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY
BEING NEEDED AT THAT TIME. FRESH WESTERLIES WILL DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LASTING ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY...PROVIDING A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES FRESHEN
AGAIN FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 030026
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
726 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER IS WANING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR ARE WORKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...POTENTIALLY AS LOW
AS THE SINGLE DIGITS IN PLACES BY MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WARM ADVECTIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS THESE WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RETARD
ANY TEMPERATURE FALLS SHOULD THEY ARRIVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED.

FOR TUESDAY...A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
MOISTURE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY
EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA
WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN.
EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO
REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND DIMINISHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH CIGS LOWERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...THOUGH REMAINING IN VFR RANGE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. BY 18Z HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR
AND POSSIBLY TO IFR AS -SN DEVELOPS AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER A MIX OF -SN/PL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN AROUND 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO SNOW LATE. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...THE
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 022024
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A LITTLE OPEN WATER ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS WITHIN A COLD AIRMASS CREATING SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THIS LIGHT SNOW...AIDED BY ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS REACHED A PORTION OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND THEN INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK STATE FALLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS LATE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS HIGH
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE LIGHT SNOWS
FALLING ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. AS WE
HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...A DEEP SNOWPACK WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS...EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT CAN ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL IN THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
THE REGION TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...AND BELOW ZERO
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS CLOUDS RETURN TO WESTERN NEW YORK WITHIN A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS DAWN. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.

A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO
SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH
OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...THE
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 022024
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATER
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS A STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A BRIEF
PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A LITTLE OPEN WATER ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF LAKES SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS WITHIN A COLD AIRMASS CREATING SOME LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
THIS LIGHT SNOW...AIDED BY ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO HAS REACHED A PORTION OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND THEN INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ADDITIONAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK STATE FALLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS LATE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS HIGH
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE LIGHT SNOWS
FALLING ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. AS WE
HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...A DEEP SNOWPACK WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS...EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT CAN ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL IN THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
THE REGION TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT...AND BELOW ZERO
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS CLOUDS RETURN TO WESTERN NEW YORK WITHIN A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARDS DAWN. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT...ALLOWING
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW.

A COLORADO LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING
TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET OF 60 KNOTS WILL BRING BOTH MILDER TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MOISTURE LIFTED
ISENTROPICALLY...WHICH WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...FIRST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW...INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 850 HPA WILL TRANSITION THE SNOW OVER TO
SLEET...AND THEN FREEZING RAIN. EXPECT THE NORTHERN REACH OF THE
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO REACH NEAR THE NYS THRUWAY. NORTH
OF THE THRUWAY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN SNOW...OR A SNOW/SLEET
MIXTURE THROUGH THE DAY.

AS TEMPERATURES WARM THE SNOW LIQUID RATIO WILL BE FALLING...SUCH
THAT A 8 TO 10:1 RATIO YIELDS ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK...AND LESSER AMOUNTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE SNOW
WILL START LATER.

WARMING TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH NEAR FREEZING ACROSS
WNY...WHILE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WILL REMAIN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LAKES TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE PRIMARY FORCING BEING
STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRIVEN BY A 50+ KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A DEEPER FIELD OF
MOISTURE AS GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL BRING A SOLID...
ALBEIT BRIEF PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD STEADY PRECIP LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

THE INITIAL SNOW WHICH DEVELOPS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE ALREADY CHANGED TO FREEZING RAIN
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE SLEET ACROSS WESTERN NY BY EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SNOW MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING...BUT EVEN HERE SOME MIX IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE NOSE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A BRIEF...STRONG
PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT...FIRST IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CHANGE THE FREEZING RAIN TO
JUST PLAIN RAIN OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW SPOTS IN LEWIS
COUNTY AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK...AND KEEP A MIX OF EVEN JUST SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. ONE NOTE WITH THIS SETUP...THE GROUND IS VERY COLD SO THERE
MAY STILL BE FREEZING RAIN FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER THE AIR
TEMPERATURE RISES ABOVE FREEZING...WITH GROUND TEMPS OFTEN LAGGING
BEHIND THE AIR TEMPS WHEN IT HAS BEEN THIS COLD FOR THIS LONG.

TOTAL SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER...WITH 2-4 INCHES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY UP TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL WITH A LATER
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ICE AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY RUN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...EXCEPT UP TO A QUARTER
INCH IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WHERE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE. WITH THIS IN MIND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE UP FOR THE ENTIRE CWA MAINLY FOR THE MIX.

RAIN AMOUNTS FOLLOWING THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH AT MOST. THE DEEP SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TEND TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN...LIMITING RUNOFF. IT WILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH
PERIOD OF TIME TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY FLOODING OR ICE JAMS...THE
CREEK ICE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN DYNAMICS SPREAD INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THIS WILL LEAVE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LATE...WITH MODERATE COLD ADVECTION
BRINGING FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIP THAT
REMAINS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 30S AND INTO THE 20S ON
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY TO BORDERLINE WINDY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS MUCH COLDER AIR FLOODS
BACK INTO THE REGION. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISE TO AROUND
8K FEET ON THURSDAY...BUT DIURNAL INFLUENCES OF THE STRONG MARCH SUN
ANGLE AND NORTHWEST FETCH SHOULD KEEP THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. IN
ADDITION TO LAKE EFFECT...EXPECT MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKES TO
COMBINE WITH THE STRONG MARCH SUN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IN MANY AREAS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE AS IT SAGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID TEENS...WITH SOME OF THE HILLS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT
OF THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE COLDER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. AT LEAST SOME LIMITED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS AND DRYING LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA...ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN. A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AND REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...ON FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE AREA
DRY...ALTHOUGH WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY STILL PRODUCE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKE.

ON SATURDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.

LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING A
TROUGH INTO THE WEST COAST...FORCING STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
AND WARM ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY AROUND MARCH
11TH OR 12TH. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. BEYOND THAT...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MORE OF A TYPICAL
MARCH PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH SWINGS UP AND DOWN IN TEMPERATURE AS
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NATION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY
MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERLY WIND OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MAINTAIN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THE WESTERN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TONIGHT. AFTER WINDS DIMINISH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES...THE
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY SUCH THAT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021800
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
100 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH IS DROPPING ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND IS SPREADING SNOW FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION
WITH THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PRESS
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. DAYTIME MIXING COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY HIGH AND
EAST COAST LOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WIND...AT TIMES GUSTY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OPEN AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND RUNNING THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS WNY...AND 09Z WEDNESDAY EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH A +150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PUSH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH
OF PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR KJHW. STILL LINGERING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE INLAND SOUTHERN
TIER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL IMPROVE FLIGHT CONDITIONS
BACK TO VFR...WHILE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AND THE BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL.

A QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW...AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE MIDWEST MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER BEFORE THE TAF CYCLE ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...BREEZY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW LIKELY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ003>005-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 021448
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH
AND EAST OF BUFFALO...WHILE SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOWS ARE
FALLING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THERE LAKE CONNECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES...AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST
REACHES THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. THOUGH THE SNOW WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH-SOUTH ROADS IN OPEN AREAS. BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH FALLING
SNOW MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID DAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY.

OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 021448
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH
AND EAST OF BUFFALO...WHILE SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOWS ARE
FALLING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THERE LAKE CONNECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES...AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST
REACHES THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. THOUGH THE SNOW WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH-SOUTH ROADS IN OPEN AREAS. BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH FALLING
SNOW MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID DAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY.

OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021448
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH
AND EAST OF BUFFALO...WHILE SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOWS ARE
FALLING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THERE LAKE CONNECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES...AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST
REACHES THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. THOUGH THE SNOW WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH-SOUTH ROADS IN OPEN AREAS. BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH FALLING
SNOW MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID DAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY.

OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 021448
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
948 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADARS THIS MORNING DISPLAY SNOW TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH
AND EAST OF BUFFALO...WHILE SLIGHTLY MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOWS ARE
FALLING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOWS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THERE LAKE CONNECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MIDDAY HOURS AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES...AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST
REACHES THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER. THOUGH THE SNOW WILL END ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND WILL BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTH-SOUTH ROADS IN OPEN AREAS. BLOWING SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW YORK. THIS FEATURE
MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR JEFFERSON COUNTY AND
THE WESTERN FOOT HILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...THOUGH FALLING
SNOW MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES FOR A TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID DAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY.

OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 021200
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
700 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS HELPING TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER RAPIDLY IN QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL AN INCH THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BECOME DRY AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID DAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY.

OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 021200
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
700 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS HELPING TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER RAPIDLY IN QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL AN INCH THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BECOME DRY AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MID DAY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY.

OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS
OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS HELPING TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER RAPIDLY IN QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL AN INCH THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BECOME DRY AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT
SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS HELPING TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER RAPIDLY IN QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL AN INCH THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BECOME DRY AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT
SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS HELPING TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER RAPIDLY IN QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL AN INCH THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BECOME DRY AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT
SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 020921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
421 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY
CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS IS HELPING TO BRIEFLY ENHANCE
THE ONGOING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. A QUICK INCH OR SO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES...BUT INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER RAPIDLY IN QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL AN INCH THIS MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BECOME DRY AS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE SEEN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20 ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ALONG WITH SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT BEFORE ROBUST
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND A GENERAL LACK OF AMPLITUDE
WILL KEEP THIS NEXT EVENT FROM BEING A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE GUARANTEED TO GET SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ADD TO OUR LONG WINTER WOES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED.

THE SPLIT JET WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. PACIFIC BASED ENERGY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
THIS TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH A
+150KT H25 JET RACING THIS INITIAL IMPULSE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE 1000MB
OPEN WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH STRONGER
NORTHERN BRANCH STORM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
WHOLE SCENARIO...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY/EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. HEREIN LIES THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF
PRECIPITATION.

WET SNOW WILL BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AS MILDER AIR OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL LIFT UP AND OVER THE RELATIVELY COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AFTER A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW...THE VERY STRONG PUSH OF WARMER AIR WILL CHANGE THE
PCPN TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY BEFORE THIS
CHANGE OVER OCCURS. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST WITH
THIS CHANGEOVER AS IT SEEMS TO EXAGGERATE THE EXTENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR IN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. IN ANY CASE...
MOST SITES WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE AT LEAST A
PARTIAL CHANGE OVER BY THE END OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SRN TIER WHERE FREEZING RAIN COULD BE THE PRIMARY P-TYPE BY DINNER
TIME. NR SFC TEMPS BY THIS POINT WILL RANGE FROM 32 NEAR LAKE ERIE
TO THE MID 20S EAST OF LK ONTARIO.

DESPITE THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT SFC FEATURE TO FOCUS THE PCPN...
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED BY 60KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY GENERAL FORCING FROM AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
175KT H25 TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PCPN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE ANY SNOW TO A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE PCPN COMPLETELY TURNING OVER TO JUST RAIN
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE NR SFC TEMPS COULD CLIMB OVERNIGHT
TO NEAR 40 F. QPF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A QUARTER
INCH...WITH THE BULK OF THAT COMING AS RAIN OR AN ICY MIX. WHILE
THIS WILL NOT BE THE MOST FAVORABLE WEATHER FOR TRAVEL...THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED BY AN IMPRESSIVE SNOWPACK...
WHICH IS NEAR RECORD DEPTHS IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WAS SOME EARLIER DISCUSSION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE MAIN PARENT LOW CROSSES JAMES BAY TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CHARGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE WILL
BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THIS WILL
NOT BE A HIGH WIND EVENT. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE ISALLOBARIC COUPLET
WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH AND THERE WILL BE A GENERAL LACK OF ANY
STRONG H925-85 WINDS OR INTRUSIVE PV ANOMALIES WITHIN THE COLD
ADVECTION TO MIX ANY SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP
WINDS FROM EXCEEDING MORE THAN 35 KNOTS OR SO.

IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...NOTABLY DRIER
AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE BULK OF
THE PCPN WHILE PULLING THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER OUR BRIEF SPELL OF
MILDER WEATHER. ANY LEFTOVER MIXED SHOWERS EARLY WILL CHANGE TO JUST
SCATTERED NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS AS AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN THE
30S...TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY DROP BACK THROUGH THE 20S.

THE COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKES SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHILE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE FAMILIAR
TERRITORY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS.

ON THURSDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WHILE A DRY SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. IT WILL
BE COLD ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOPPING OUT IN THE TEENS.
NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE SOME 20 DEGREES HIGHER...
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHOW A SLOW
IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
MID DAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT
SNOW WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO
TODAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 020445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1145 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND
THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 020445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1145 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND
THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 020445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1145 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND
THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 020445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1145 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX AND
THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER
IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 020226
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
926 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRY AIR SURGING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK HAS ALLOWED SNOW TO DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS OHIO AND WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING UPSTREAM TO INVIGORATE
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LEWIS COUNTY REMAINS
UNDER AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS A WEAKENING BATCH OF 1 TO 2 SM VISBY
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND COULD STILL PICK
UP SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TUG HILL.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 020226
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
926 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRY AIR SURGING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK HAS ALLOWED SNOW TO DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS OHIO AND WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING UPSTREAM TO INVIGORATE
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LEWIS COUNTY REMAINS
UNDER AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS A WEAKENING BATCH OF 1 TO 2 SM VISBY
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND COULD STILL PICK
UP SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TUG HILL.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 020226
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
926 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PA AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.
DRY AIR SURGING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER OF
NEW YORK HAS ALLOWED SNOW TO DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ACROSS OHIO AND WV/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGEST THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING UPSTREAM TO INVIGORATE
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THUS HAVE DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. LEWIS COUNTY REMAINS
UNDER AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AS A WEAKENING BATCH OF 1 TO 2 SM VISBY
SNOW CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND COULD STILL PICK
UP SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TUG HILL.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REMAINING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED
BEFORE SUNRSISE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND
QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH
IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NOW WILL SHOW A
SLOW IMPROVING TREND TOWARD MORE MVFR TYPE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 012014
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SO FAR SNOW PRODUCTION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY LACKLUSTER AS
THE INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING LARGELY FELL APART TO FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BUT EVEN THERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIGHT. THIS IS CHANGING NOW AS A MORE COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE STREAKS
ENE INTO OUR REGION.

THIS EVENING THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER AS A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
MID LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF A 60 KNOT 700MB JET.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...EXPECT THE STEADIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE UNDER-PERFORMING SNOW
TODAY WE HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS...
WITH TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR TO
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND EVEN A LITTLE UNDER 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER PICKED UP MORE INITIALLY
WITH THE FIRST BATCH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ALSO DO BEST WITH THE
SECOND WAVE SO TOTALS MAY STILL REACH THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THERE.
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 3-5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THESE TWO AREAS
TO COVER THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT
THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008-
     019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 012014
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
314 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SO FAR SNOW PRODUCTION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY LACKLUSTER AS
THE INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING LARGELY FELL APART TO FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BUT EVEN THERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIGHT. THIS IS CHANGING NOW AS A MORE COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE STREAKS
ENE INTO OUR REGION.

THIS EVENING THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER AS A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
MID LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF A 60 KNOT 700MB JET.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...EXPECT THE STEADIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE UNDER-PERFORMING SNOW
TODAY WE HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS...
WITH TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR TO
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND EVEN A LITTLE UNDER 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER PICKED UP MORE INITIALLY
WITH THE FIRST BATCH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ALSO DO BEST WITH THE
SECOND WAVE SO TOTALS MAY STILL REACH THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THERE.
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 3-5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THESE TWO AREAS
TO COVER THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT
THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHALLOW 500MB RIDING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLORADO LOW WILL
RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VIGOROUS VORT MAX ALOFT EJECTING OUT OF PARENT
WEST COAST TROUGH. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL START AS A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON...12Z MODELS SHOW A WEDGE OF
WARM AIR WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERRIDING STILL SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WOULD BRING A CHANGEOVER TO AN
ICY MIX FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.

THE 12Z NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SURGING A THICKER LAYER OF WARM
AIR NORTHWARD WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT. HAVE TAKEN A BLENDED APPROACH FOR THE CURRENT
WARM LAYER TEMPERATURES. IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERNS THE WARM AIR
ALMOST ALWAYS COMES IN FASTER THAN THE MODELS SHOW. HAVE FEATURED A
PERIOD OF SNOW MIXING WITH SLEET THEN CHANGING OVER TO A FEW HOURS
OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE A CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT AND MIX WITH SLEET WILL YIELD LOW END SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS
CLOSER TO 10:1 OR LESS. THIS THINKING COMBINED WITH BLEND OF MODEL
QPF YIELDS 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
AROUND A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH A
LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH FUTURE UPDATES. SURFACE TEMPS WILL RISE
FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ONCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO PLAIN RAIN A BLEND OF 01/12Z
MODEL QPF IS LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS WITH A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH OF LIQUID. THE CURRENT SNOW PACK WILL ABSORB THIS RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE THREAT OF ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE FEW HOURS OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH FOR ANY THREAT OF
A SIGNIFICANT THAW AS COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY ARRIVE BACK ACROSS NEW
YORK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE MATURE LOW WILL SHIFT JUST NORTHWEST OF WESTERN NEW YORK ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE TRACK OF THIS
DEEPENING LOW CUTTING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST IS FAVORABLE FOR HIGH
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A STRONG INVERSION WITH WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CUT OFF THE STRONG 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND PREVENT
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. A SHORT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND
GUST SHOULD ONLY REACH 30-40 KNOTS AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID 20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS
WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE RETURN OF COLD AIR CROSSING LAKE
ONTARIO LOOKS TO PRODUCE A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE AS LINGERING MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS RISE TO NEAR 8KFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY. 12Z GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WORKING ALONG A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH BUT FELL THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM REACHING
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
LINGER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. LATER FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE SHOWING A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHOT AT GOING SUB-ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN TIER. IF ENOUGH SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
PARADE OF SHORTWAVES NEXT WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008-
     019>021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042-
         043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011902
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SO FAR SNOW PRODUCTION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY LACKLUSTER AS
THE INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING LARGELY FELL APART TO FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BUT EVEN THERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE STREAKS ENE INTO OUR REGION.

THIS EVENING THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER AS A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
MID LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF A 60 KNOT 700MB JET.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...EXPECT THE STEADIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE UNDER-PERFORMING SNOW
TODAY WE HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS...
WITH TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR TO
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND EVEN A LITTLE UNDER 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER PICKED UP MORE INITIALLY
WITH THE FIRST BATCH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ALSO DO BEST WITH THE
SECOND WAVE SO TOTALS MAY STILL REACH THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THERE.
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 3-5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THESE TWO AREAS
TO COVER THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT
THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE
SUBSIDENCE BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK ENDS THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MONDAY FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008-
     019>021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011902
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SO FAR SNOW PRODUCTION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY LACKLUSTER AS
THE INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING LARGELY FELL APART TO FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BUT EVEN THERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE STREAKS ENE INTO OUR REGION.

THIS EVENING THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER AS A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
MID LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF A 60 KNOT 700MB JET.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...EXPECT THE STEADIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE UNDER-PERFORMING SNOW
TODAY WE HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS...
WITH TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR TO
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND EVEN A LITTLE UNDER 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER PICKED UP MORE INITIALLY
WITH THE FIRST BATCH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ALSO DO BEST WITH THE
SECOND WAVE SO TOTALS MAY STILL REACH THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THERE.
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 3-5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THESE TWO AREAS
TO COVER THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT
THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE
SUBSIDENCE BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK ENDS THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MONDAY FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008-
     019>021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011902
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING ON MONDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO A
WINTRY MIX AND THEN TO RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF PUSH OF WARMER
AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SO FAR SNOW PRODUCTION FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN VERY LACKLUSTER AS
THE INITIAL BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING LARGELY FELL APART TO FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW.
THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BUT EVEN THERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIGHT. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
COHERENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND LAKE ERIE STREAKS ENE INTO OUR REGION.

THIS EVENING THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER AS A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND SOME SOUTHERN
STREAM ENERGY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAROCLINIC WAVE MOVING FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE
MID LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER THIS EVENING WITH SOME ADDED CONVERGENCE AND
LIFT NEAR THE NOSE OF A 60 KNOT 700MB JET.

GIVEN THE ABOVE...EXPECT THE STEADIEST SNOW TO FALL FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...AND EARLY EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AS
THE BEST DYNAMICS PASS OVERHEAD. GIVEN THE UNDER-PERFORMING SNOW
TODAY WE HAVE CONTINUED A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SNOW AMOUNTS...
WITH TOTALS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR TO
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND EVEN A LITTLE UNDER 2 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER PICKED UP MORE INITIALLY
WITH THE FIRST BATCH THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD ALSO DO BEST WITH THE
SECOND WAVE SO TOTALS MAY STILL REACH THE 3-5 INCH RANGE THERE.
UPSLOPE FLOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND SOUTHWEST
FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ALSO PRODUCE 3-5 INCH TOTALS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN THESE TWO AREAS
TO COVER THE GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE BETTER DYNAMICS PULL INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING SOME WEAK UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON
HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE...BUT
THE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AND QUICKLY DRYING AIRMASS WILL LIMIT
THIS. THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO AN INCH IN SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMING DRY.
SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIMITED SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING LIKELY THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 20
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO BORDERLINE
WINDY ON MONDAY AS WELL...WHICH WILL PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING SNOW IN
OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE
SUBSIDENCE BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK ENDS THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MONDAY FROM THE MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY DEEPENING ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
DEEPENING COASTAL LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE
OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
LOWER LAKES.

ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON THE OPEN PORTION OF LAKE ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS COLDER AIR COMES RUSHING
BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008-
     019>021.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 011747
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1247 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WHICH MOVED INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK HAS ALL BUT FALLEN
APART...WITH JUST FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE SNOW IS A LITTLE STEADIER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT EVEN THERE RATES ARE LIGHT. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...AND THIS
SHOULD MOVE ENE AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40+ KNOT 700MB JET. THIS WILL BRING THE PERIOD
OF STEADIEST SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED AMOUNTS
IN THE 3 TO 5 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AMOUNTS MAY ALSO
REACH 3-5 INCHES. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS COUNTY TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 011747
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1247 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WHICH MOVED INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK HAS ALL BUT FALLEN
APART...WITH JUST FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE SNOW IS A LITTLE STEADIER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT EVEN THERE RATES ARE LIGHT. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...AND THIS
SHOULD MOVE ENE AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40+ KNOT 700MB JET. THIS WILL BRING THE PERIOD
OF STEADIEST SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED AMOUNTS
IN THE 3 TO 5 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AMOUNTS MAY ALSO
REACH 3-5 INCHES. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS COUNTY TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011747
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1247 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD AREA OF MAINLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
WHICH MOVED INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK HAS ALL BUT FALLEN
APART...WITH JUST FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE SNOW IS A LITTLE STEADIER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO BUT EVEN THERE RATES ARE LIGHT. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW
A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...AND THIS
SHOULD MOVE ENE AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40+ KNOT 700MB JET. THIS WILL BRING THE PERIOD
OF STEADIEST SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
ONLY SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED AMOUNTS
IN THE 3 TO 5 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AMOUNTS MAY ALSO
REACH 3-5 INCHES. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS COUNTY TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING HAS BECOME VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE...WITH
MANY AREAS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR EVEN VFR VSBY. CIGS ARE A MIX OF
MVFR AND VFR SO FAR. THIS BREAK WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
STEADIER SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND LAKE ERIE SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS
EVENING WITH IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE LOW
LEVELS MORE FULLY SATURATE WITH THE STEADIER LIGHT SNOW. OVERNIGHT
THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH VSBY IMPROVING FROM
IFR TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH LOCAL IFR VSBY. OTHERWISE ANY LIGHT SNOW
WILL END WITH VFR VSBY BY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH AREAS OF MVFR LINGERING ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
DEVELOPING THEN QUICKLY CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011520
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN OHIO NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NY...WITH LIGHT SNOW NOW ALSO STARTING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH
MOST OF TODAY...WITH SOME UPTICK EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AS A PERIOD OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT BEGINS.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK
STATE BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND
SOUTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AMOUNTS MAY ALSO
REACH 4-6 INCHES. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEWIS COUNTY TO
COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH VSBYS DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS WILL BE A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR THROUGH
MIDDAY. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO
SATURATE CIGS SHOULD DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR...WITH IFR BECOMING MORE
LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY
MIX DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO RAIN. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FEBRUARY 2015 IS NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS...AND WHAT A MONTH IT WAS.
IT WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE COLDEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD...BUT THE
COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD FOR THE REGION. THERE WAS ALSO
ABUNDANT SNOWFALL AND WIND...MAKING FOR A PARTICULARLY HARSH WINTER
MONTH. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS FOR OUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES.

BUFFALO...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
10.9F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.4F BELOW NORMAL. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 11.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

BUFFALO HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL BELOW
ZERO. THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 11 SET IN 1934. THERE HAVE BEEN 11 DAYS BELOW
ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW
ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 19 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 21.6F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1917-1918 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.3F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 46.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE THIRD
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 54.2 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 103 INCHES...WHICH
IS 24.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

ROCHESTER...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF
12.2F WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 14.2F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.6F SET BACK IN FEBRUARY OF 1934.

ROCHESTER HAD 10 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS TIES 1979 FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THERE HAVE BEEN 12 DAYS
BELOW ZERO SO FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF
BELOW ZERO DAYS FOR A WINTER IS 15 IN THE WINTER OF 1884-1885.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.0F...WHICH
RANKS AS THE 13TH COLDEST IN HISTORY. THE COLDEST WAS THE WINTER OF
1903-1904 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.6F.

SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WAS 45.2 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS THE FOURTH
MOST ON RECORD. THE SNOWIEST FEBRUARY WAS IN 1958 WITH 64.8 INCHES.
FOR THE SEASON THROUGH FEBRUARY 28TH WE STAND AT 88.6 INCHES...WHICH
IS 9.7 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THAT DATE.

WATERTOWN...

NOTE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1950.

COLDEST CALENDAR MONTH ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 6.1F
WHICH IS AN ASTOUNDING 15.0F BELOW NORMAL. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 6.4F SET BACK IN DECEMBER OF 1989.

WATERTOWN HAD 20 DAYS IN FEBRUARY WHERE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FELL
BELOW ZERO. THIS SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE MONTH. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS 16 DAYS IN 1978. THERE HAVE BEEN 35 DAYS BELOW ZERO SO
FAR IN THE WINTER OF 2014-2015. THE RECORD NUMBER OF BELOW ZERO DAYS
FOR A WINTER IS 41 IN THE WINTER OF 1993-1994.

METEOROLOGICAL WINTER COMPRISING THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...JANUARY...
AND FEBRUARY ENDED WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F...WHICH TIES
AS THE 10TH COLDEST IN HISTORY WITH 1968-1969. THE COLDEST WAS THE
WINTER OF 1969-1970 WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 14.7F.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 011120
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
620 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE SNOW
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SIGNIFICANT WEDGE OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL KEEP SNOWFALL INTENSITY RELATIVELY LIGHT AT FIRST. ONCE
COLUMN SATURATION OCCURS INTENSITY LEVELS WILL PICK UP WITH A
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD
DENDRITES.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
FROM MID DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE
BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS.
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY
MIX DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX
CHANGING TO RAIN. BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR REGION WILL SEE THE FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A MONTH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR TO ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. A BRIEF
SURGE OF NEAR SURFACE WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE COLD AIR COMES RUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE HALF TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT WILL
FALL IN SOME SORT OF FROZEN WINTRY PRECIP. THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HELP TO
REDUCE RUNOFF. ALL OF THE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE VERY
EXTENSIVE ICE PACK...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO ALLOW THE ICE TO BREAK
UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS...FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOCKING STORM
DRAINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 010808
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE SNOW
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SIGNIFICANT WEDGE OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL KEEP SNOWFALL INTENSITY RELATIVELY LIGHT AT FIRST. ONCE
COLUMN SATURATION OCCURS INTENSITY LEVELS WILL PICK UP WITH A
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD
DENDRITES.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
FROM MID DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE
BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY AROUND 09Z OR SO WITH VSBY
DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH VSBY COMING
DOWN TO IFR AS IT DOES SO. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR REGION WILL SEE THE FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A MONTH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR TO ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. A BRIEF
SURGE OF NEAR SURFACE WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE COLD AIR COMES RUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE HALF TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT WILL
FALL IN SOME SORT OF FROZEN WINTRY PRECIP. THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HELP TO
REDUCE RUNOFF. ALL OF THE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE VERY
EXTENSIVE ICE PACK...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO ALLOW THE ICE TO BREAK
UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS...FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOCKING STORM
DRAINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 010808
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE SNOW
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SIGNIFICANT WEDGE OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL KEEP SNOWFALL INTENSITY RELATIVELY LIGHT AT FIRST. ONCE
COLUMN SATURATION OCCURS INTENSITY LEVELS WILL PICK UP WITH A
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD
DENDRITES.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
FROM MID DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE
BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY AROUND 09Z OR SO WITH VSBY
DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH VSBY COMING
DOWN TO IFR AS IT DOES SO. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR REGION WILL SEE THE FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A MONTH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR TO ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. A BRIEF
SURGE OF NEAR SURFACE WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE COLD AIR COMES RUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE HALF TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT WILL
FALL IN SOME SORT OF FROZEN WINTRY PRECIP. THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HELP TO
REDUCE RUNOFF. ALL OF THE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE VERY
EXTENSIVE ICE PACK...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO ALLOW THE ICE TO BREAK
UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS...FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOCKING STORM
DRAINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010808
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE SNOW
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SIGNIFICANT WEDGE OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL KEEP SNOWFALL INTENSITY RELATIVELY LIGHT AT FIRST. ONCE
COLUMN SATURATION OCCURS INTENSITY LEVELS WILL PICK UP WITH A
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD
DENDRITES.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
FROM MID DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE
BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY AROUND 09Z OR SO WITH VSBY
DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH VSBY COMING
DOWN TO IFR AS IT DOES SO. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR REGION WILL SEE THE FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A MONTH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR TO ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. A BRIEF
SURGE OF NEAR SURFACE WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE COLD AIR COMES RUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE HALF TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT WILL
FALL IN SOME SORT OF FROZEN WINTRY PRECIP. THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HELP TO
REDUCE RUNOFF. ALL OF THE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE VERY
EXTENSIVE ICE PACK...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO ALLOW THE ICE TO BREAK
UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS...FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOCKING STORM
DRAINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010808
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING TO NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT AND BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TO THE REGION. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPING UP IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING UPTICK IN MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ANCHORING THE EXPANSION OF LIGHT SNOW AS EXPECTED.
REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION OF LIGHT
SNOW EXPANDING ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE SNOW
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SIGNIFICANT WEDGE OF DEPARTING LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL KEEP SNOWFALL INTENSITY RELATIVELY LIGHT AT FIRST. ONCE
COLUMN SATURATION OCCURS INTENSITY LEVELS WILL PICK UP WITH A
FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE REGIME BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD
DENDRITES.

STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
FROM MID DAY INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
JET STREAK. THIS WILL LARGELY OCCUR SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK STATE
BORDER. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
ENHANCED FORCING TO SEE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWS. WHILE MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...ENHANCED
AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 6 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW SHIELD TO
SLOWLY PULL TO THE EAST.

DESPITE THE SNOW...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD COMPARED
TO RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK INTO
MONDAY AS MOISTURE AND COLD AIR CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE BACK
SIDE THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...SHIFTING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
TO NEWFOUNDLAND. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL HAVE SNOW CHANCES
LONGEST AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM A 500MB TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
VORT MAX PASS TO OUR EAST. QUICKLY THINNING MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
LEAD UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
A FEW TENTHS ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES REGION.

SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY EVENING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE THE SUBSIDENCE
BROUGHT ON BY A SURFACE HIGH PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK ENDS
THIS THREAT. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM THE
MID 20S INTO THE TEENS THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS FOR
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER BUT WARMER STORM QUICKLY APPROACHES FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLORADO LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN WHILE CUTTING
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD A PLUME OF WARM MOIST GULF SOURCED AIR NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIP WILL BE STARTING AS A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVEN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WARMER AIR ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CHANGE A FAIR
PORTION OF THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME
SNOW/SLEET/FRZG RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE TRANSITION FROM FROZEN TO
LIQUID PRECIP AND SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE SNOW OR A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPS WILL RISE FROM THE 20S LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NEW YORK WEST OF
THE GENESEE VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ON A DOWNWARD SLIDE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...CHANGING THE PRECIP BACK FROM COLD
RAIN TO WET SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S EARLY IN THE MORNING TO THE MID
20S BY THE END OF THE ACROSS WESTERN NY...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY
WILL HAVE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPS FALLING TO
LOWER 30S LATE IN THE DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT AND TEMPS WILL FALL BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS WITH
SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO TO CENTRAL NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL STATES TO THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN OPEN CHANNEL OF COLD AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER ACROSS THE REGION. A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY AS
MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED EAST AND SOUTH OF NEW YORK
ON WEDNESDAY COULD STALL ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THURSDAY. A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MOISTURE FEED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH MAY TRY TO
WORK NORTH ALONG THE FRONT WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW EXTENDS INTO
OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKING EAST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR NOW A WEEK OUT.

THE COLD AIR FILTERING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES SOME 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 20 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT. IF ENOUGH
SOUTHERLY AIR CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLY CLIPPER LOW NEXT
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COULD PUSH BACK TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER BY AROUND 09Z OR SO WITH VSBY
DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH VSBY COMING
DOWN TO IFR AS IT DOES SO. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY SATURATE THE LOW
LEVELS WITH CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOME IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR IN WIDESPREAD SNOW.
MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS...THEN IMPROVING TO
VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR LATE WITH A WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN.
BECOMING WINDY.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT STILL HAVE OPEN WATER.

ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OUR REGION WILL SEE THE FIRST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN OVER
A MONTH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A MODERATELY STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CUTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING A
BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR TO ENTER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
A WINTRY MIX INITIALLY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WARM
AIR ALOFT MOVES IN OVER STUBBORN COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. A BRIEF
SURGE OF NEAR SURFACE WARMING JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CHANGE ALL THE PRECIP OVER TO RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE COLD AIR COMES RUSHING BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

QPF POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN THE HALF TO THREE
QUARTER OF AN INCH RANGE...BUT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THAT WILL
FALL IN SOME SORT OF FROZEN WINTRY PRECIP. THE DEEP SNOWPACK WILL
LIKELY ABSORB A GOOD PORTION OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND HELP TO
REDUCE RUNOFF. ALL OF THE AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS HAVE VERY
EXTENSIVE ICE PACK...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME TO ALLOW THE ICE TO BREAK
UP AND BEGIN TO MOVE.

GIVEN THE ABOVE EXPECTATIONS...FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW FOR
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THE ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE MAY BE MINOR FLOODING
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOW IS BLOCKING STORM
DRAINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019>021.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WCH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK









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