Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBUF 040804
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ASSURE THAT OUR REGION WILL HAVE FAIR
WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT WILL START TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED LATER NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THURSDAYS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
BEFORE THE MEANDERING FRONT MOVES TOO FAR SOUTH THOUGH...A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL REINFORCE
FAIR WEATHER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS
PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME.

H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS C EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHERE NOTABLY LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE...TO THE UPPER
TEENS C OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE (DUNKIRK/FREDONIA/WESTFIELD)...WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER MANY OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE DRAPED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SETTLING A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WE CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MIDSUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT
ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
ANY CONVECTION. THUS...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG...AT THIS POINT DO NOT FORESEE
ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

LOOKING A BIT MORE SPECIFICALLY AT FORECAST TEMPERATURES...850 MB
READINGS INITIALLY BETWEEN +15C AND +17C ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB TO
THE +17C/+18C RANGE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY CLIMBING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
BY MONDAY...WHEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASING ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STATED...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
ALSO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WAVES ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEIR CONSEQUENT INFLUENCE ON ITS TIMING.

LOOKING A BIT MORE CLOSELY AT THE DETAILS...THE 00Z GFS/GEM BOTH
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY IMPINGE UPON OUR
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHERE IT THEN
STALLS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT...WITH THE BOUNDARY THEN
FINALLY CROSSING OUR REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...AND
NOW JUST SUGGESTS A SIMPLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN BOTH THE DISCREPANCIES NOTED ABOVE AND THE UNSUPRISING
DIFFICULTIES THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING IN PINNING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. MUCH LIKE OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...HAVE DEPICTED AN
INITIAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE POSSIBLE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE
NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WERE THE
00Z ECMWF TO VERIFY...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY TURN
OUT TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND
ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE SRN TIER (INCL KJHW AND KELZ).

THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z OR
SO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THEN SUPPLYING
FAIR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VFR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND
FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS THE NIGHT
MATURES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVN/EARLY AM FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO PROMOTING SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
IRONDEQUOIT BAY. WINDS AND WAVE HGTS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THAT AREA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 040804
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ASSURE THAT OUR REGION WILL HAVE FAIR
WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT WILL START TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED LATER NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THURSDAYS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
BEFORE THE MEANDERING FRONT MOVES TOO FAR SOUTH THOUGH...A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL REINFORCE
FAIR WEATHER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS
PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME.

H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS C EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHERE NOTABLY LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE...TO THE UPPER
TEENS C OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE (DUNKIRK/FREDONIA/WESTFIELD)...WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER MANY OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE DRAPED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SETTLING A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WE CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MIDSUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT
ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
ANY CONVECTION. THUS...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG...AT THIS POINT DO NOT FORESEE
ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

LOOKING A BIT MORE SPECIFICALLY AT FORECAST TEMPERATURES...850 MB
READINGS INITIALLY BETWEEN +15C AND +17C ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB TO
THE +17C/+18C RANGE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY CLIMBING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
BY MONDAY...WHEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASING ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STATED...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
ALSO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WAVES ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEIR CONSEQUENT INFLUENCE ON ITS TIMING.

LOOKING A BIT MORE CLOSELY AT THE DETAILS...THE 00Z GFS/GEM BOTH
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY IMPINGE UPON OUR
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHERE IT THEN
STALLS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT...WITH THE BOUNDARY THEN
FINALLY CROSSING OUR REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...AND
NOW JUST SUGGESTS A SIMPLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN BOTH THE DISCREPANCIES NOTED ABOVE AND THE UNSUPRISING
DIFFICULTIES THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING IN PINNING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. MUCH LIKE OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...HAVE DEPICTED AN
INITIAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE POSSIBLE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE
NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WERE THE
00Z ECMWF TO VERIFY...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY TURN
OUT TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND
ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE SRN TIER (INCL KJHW AND KELZ).

THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z OR
SO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THEN SUPPLYING
FAIR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VFR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND
FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS THE NIGHT
MATURES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVN/EARLY AM FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO PROMOTING SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
IRONDEQUOIT BAY. WINDS AND WAVE HGTS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THAT AREA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 040804
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
404 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD
FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ASSURE THAT OUR REGION WILL HAVE FAIR
WARM WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT WILL START TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED LATER NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THURSDAYS WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
BEFORE THE MEANDERING FRONT MOVES TOO FAR SOUTH THOUGH...A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL REINFORCE
FAIR WEATHER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS
PROMOTING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME.

H85 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS C EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHERE NOTABLY LOWER DEW POINTS WILL BE IN PLACE...TO THE UPPER
TEENS C OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH AN
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPS
NEAR THE LAKE ERIE SHORE (DUNKIRK/FREDONIA/WESTFIELD)...WHERE
READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S F.

TONIGHT...THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S OVER MANY OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES TO
THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
THE PAST WEEK OR SO...VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE DRAPED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SETTLING A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTH BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...WE CAN
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY...ALONG WITH CONTINUED MIDSUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES.

WHILE IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIP ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK ON SATURDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT
ZONE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THIS HAS BEEN DISREGARDED AS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE FAR TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT
ANY CONVECTION. THUS...OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG...AT THIS POINT DO NOT FORESEE
ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

LOOKING A BIT MORE SPECIFICALLY AT FORECAST TEMPERATURES...850 MB
READINGS INITIALLY BETWEEN +15C AND +17C ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB TO
THE +17C/+18C RANGE BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY CLIMBING TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
BY MONDAY...WHEN A FEW SPOTS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY/FINGER LAKES
COULD EVEN REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME...THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASING ACROSS OUR REGION SOMETIME DURING
THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS STATED...NOTABLE DIFFERENCES
ALSO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WAVES ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEIR CONSEQUENT INFLUENCE ON ITS TIMING.

LOOKING A BIT MORE CLOSELY AT THE DETAILS...THE 00Z GFS/GEM BOTH
SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL INITIALLY IMPINGE UPON OUR
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...WHERE IT THEN
STALLS OUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ONE OR MORE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOP AND RIPPLE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT...WITH THE BOUNDARY THEN
FINALLY CROSSING OUR REGION BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED AWAY FROM THIS IDEA...AND
NOW JUST SUGGESTS A SIMPLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

GIVEN BOTH THE DISCREPANCIES NOTED ABOVE AND THE UNSUPRISING
DIFFICULTIES THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING IN PINNING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS DISTANT VANTAGE POINT...HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. MUCH LIKE OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...HAVE DEPICTED AN
INITIAL CHANCE OF CONVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE POSSIBLE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE FRONT...
FOLLOWED BY A SECOND ROUND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE
NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE FALLING BACK TO MORE NORMAL VALUES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WERE THE
00Z ECMWF TO VERIFY...TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY COULD ACTUALLY TURN
OUT TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THOSE ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND
ACROSS A LARGE SECTION OF THE SRN TIER (INCL KJHW AND KELZ).

THE STRATUS AND FOG FROM THE OVERNIGHT WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z OR
SO...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THEN SUPPLYING
FAIR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

VFR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND
FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN TIER AS THE NIGHT
MATURES.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVN/EARLY AM FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH THE LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO PROMOTING SOME
CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF
IRONDEQUOIT BAY. WINDS AND WAVE HGTS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THAT AREA.

THE SFC HIGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING ANCHORED OFF CAPE COD FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL
SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 040553
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG
THE EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS LED TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SOME CIRRUS BLOW-OFF
FROM CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHROUD THE SKIES THROUGH
THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE CIRRUS WILL DETER THE VALLEY FOG
FROM BECOMING THICK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...ALTHOUGH AS THE
CIRRUS THINS BY DAYBREAK...THAT FOG MAY BECOME BRIEFLY DENSE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
NEAR A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS
IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 09Z. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WATERTOWN WILL HOVER BETWEEN 2 AND 3SM IN FOG UNTIL THE LEADING
EDGE OF A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING DAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 040553
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG
THE EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS LED TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SOME CIRRUS BLOW-OFF
FROM CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHROUD THE SKIES THROUGH
THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE CIRRUS WILL DETER THE VALLEY FOG
FROM BECOMING THICK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...ALTHOUGH AS THE
CIRRUS THINS BY DAYBREAK...THAT FOG MAY BECOME BRIEFLY DENSE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
NEAR A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS
IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 09Z. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WATERTOWN WILL HOVER BETWEEN 2 AND 3SM IN FOG UNTIL THE LEADING
EDGE OF A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING DAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 040553
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG
THE EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS LED TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SOME CIRRUS BLOW-OFF
FROM CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHROUD THE SKIES THROUGH
THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE CIRRUS WILL DETER THE VALLEY FOG
FROM BECOMING THICK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...ALTHOUGH AS THE
CIRRUS THINS BY DAYBREAK...THAT FOG MAY BECOME BRIEFLY DENSE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
NEAR A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS
IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 09Z. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WATERTOWN WILL HOVER BETWEEN 2 AND 3SM IN FOG UNTIL THE LEADING
EDGE OF A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING DAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 040553
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG
THE EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION. THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC HAS ITS SIGHTS SET ON NEW ENGLAND. THIS HAS LED TO
CLEARING SKIES FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EAST TO THE ADIRONDACKS.
MEANWHILE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SOME CIRRUS BLOW-OFF
FROM CONVECTION OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SHROUD THE SKIES THROUGH
THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING. THE CIRRUS WILL DETER THE VALLEY FOG
FROM BECOMING THICK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...ALTHOUGH AS THE
CIRRUS THINS BY DAYBREAK...THAT FOG MAY BECOME BRIEFLY DENSE.

AFTER DAYBREAK...THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY
NEAR A CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS
IN LIGHT FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK...WHILE MVFR VSBYS ACROSS THE SRN TIER
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 09Z. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WATERTOWN WILL HOVER BETWEEN 2 AND 3SM IN FOG UNTIL THE LEADING
EDGE OF A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS PUSHES THROUGH AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

AS FOR THE UPCOMING DAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES...
ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON FRIDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 040311
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1111 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION NEAR OUR AREA HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OUR CWA STILL DRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THESE TRENDS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH
ONSHORE INTO THE NIAGARA REGION SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. A
PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 03Z THE MAIN CONCERN AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LIFR FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH AT JHW...WITH LIGHTER FOG/BR
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THIS SHOULD MAINLY RESULT IN MVFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER AN AREA OF STRATUS AND LOWER VSBY IS LIKELY
TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND VERY CLOSE TO IAG. ELSEWHERE
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR
HIGHER FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 040154
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION NEAR OUR AREA HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OUR CWA STILL DRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THESE TRENDS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH
ONSHORE INTO THE NIAGARA REGION SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. A
PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 02Z...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM ANY TAF SITES IN OUR CWA. THE MAIN
CONCERN...AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. FOG IS AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND CAUSE LIFR
CONDITIONS AT JHW TONIGHT...WITH LIGHTER FOG/BR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THIS SHOULD MAINLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
AN AREA OF STRATUS AND LOWER VSBY IS LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND VERY CLOSE TO IAG. ELSEWHERE THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR HIGHER FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 040154
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
954 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION NEAR OUR AREA HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH OUR CWA STILL DRY.
MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THESE TRENDS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH
ONSHORE INTO THE NIAGARA REGION SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON
THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. A
PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 02Z...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM ANY TAF SITES IN OUR CWA. THE MAIN
CONCERN...AS IT HAS BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. FOG IS AGAIN LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND CAUSE LIFR
CONDITIONS AT JHW TONIGHT...WITH LIGHTER FOG/BR EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. THIS SHOULD MAINLY RESULT IN MVFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
AN AREA OF STRATUS AND LOWER VSBY IS LIKELY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND VERY CLOSE TO IAG. ELSEWHERE THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR OR HIGHER FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 032236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE
OVERWHELMING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS ONTARIO
WEST OF TORONTO AND ACROSS WESTERN PA...WITH OUR CWA PRETTY MUCH
DRY. THE SOUTHWARD MOVING TROUGH MAY SPARK A STORM OR TWO IN FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR
EARLIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR
VSBY. A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 032236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE
OVERWHELMING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS ONTARIO
WEST OF TORONTO AND ACROSS WESTERN PA...WITH OUR CWA PRETTY MUCH
DRY. THE SOUTHWARD MOVING TROUGH MAY SPARK A STORM OR TWO IN FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR
EARLIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR
VSBY. A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 032236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE
OVERWHELMING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS ONTARIO
WEST OF TORONTO AND ACROSS WESTERN PA...WITH OUR CWA PRETTY MUCH
DRY. THE SOUTHWARD MOVING TROUGH MAY SPARK A STORM OR TWO IN FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT TO BE DRY.

EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW
STRATUS MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR
EARLIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR
VSBY. A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE
DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 031933
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE
OVERWHELMING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOCUSING MAINLY ON SUBTLE BOUNDARIES. A BAND OF SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE
INTERSECTION WILL PUSH SOUTH AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WIN OUT AND WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE
BREEZE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ALONG SUBTLE TERRAIN AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER LATE TONIGHT. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG AND INLAND
FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
PRIMARILY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR WILL LINGER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM
THE LAKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE LAKE PLAINS MORE CLEAR.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR VSBY.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 031933
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE
OVERWHELMING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOCUSING MAINLY ON SUBTLE BOUNDARIES. A BAND OF SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE
INTERSECTION WILL PUSH SOUTH AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WIN OUT AND WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE
BREEZE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ALONG SUBTLE TERRAIN AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER LATE TONIGHT. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG AND INLAND
FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
PRIMARILY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR WILL LINGER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM
THE LAKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE LAKE PLAINS MORE CLEAR.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR VSBY.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031933
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
333 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND THEN ALONG THE
EAST COAST OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK/DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH LOCAL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ARE
OVERWHELMING THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOCUSING MAINLY ON SUBTLE BOUNDARIES. A BAND OF SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF BUFFALO ALONG THE LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZE
INTERSECTION WILL PUSH SOUTH AND BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WIN OUT AND WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE
BREEZE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ALONG SUBTLE TERRAIN AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. ALL OF THE CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN MOST AREAS. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG IN
THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. THERE MAY ALSO BE AN AREA
OF ADVECTION FOG OVER LAKE ONTARIO WHICH COULD PUSH ONSHORE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. ELSEWHERE EXPECT JUST PATCHY LIGHT
FOG/BR WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. SOME LOW STRATUS
MAY ALSO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER LATE TONIGHT. A PUSH OF SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL
ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO CLEAR EARLIER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

A MINOR AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP A
LITTLE LOWER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS
AND AROUND 60 IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL GET DEEPER INTO THE AIRMASS CHANGE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S
THERE.

FRIDAY MORNING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN QUEBEC.
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THIS WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS TO FORM ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NEAR A
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY DESPITE THE WEAK TROUGH
PASSAGE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD TO START
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT A
LITTLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL VIRTUALLY GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER
WITH  TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 80S...BUT WELL BELOW RECORDS WHICH ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.

EXPECT SOME TYPICAL VALLEY FOG IN THE MORNINGS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
MARINE LOW CLOUDS/FOG AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST...THE CURRENTLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN ONTARIO MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  OVERHEAD
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED DRY SPELL WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LOOSE
ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION.

EVENTUALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL MARK AN INITIAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
HINTING A RETURN TO LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS...HARDLY FALL THOUGH.
MODEL TRENDS SEEM TO FOCUS ON THIS FOR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE A WEAK INITIAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY THAT MAY TOUCH OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL
BEFORE ANY NOTABLE COOLDOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS FEATURED A LOW
MOVING BY TO THE NORTHWEST OF KBUF /EX THE 06Z GFS/. WILL IGNORE
THESE AS THEY SEEM UNREALISTIC WHEN COMPARED TO THE FORECAST
PATTERN.  NEWER 12Z GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG AND INLAND
FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
PRIMARILY BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR WILL LINGER ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGION AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM
THE LAKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE LAKE PLAINS MORE CLEAR.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR VSBY.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PUSH OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLIES ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ONTARIO. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL THEN BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND FLAT WAVE
ACTION FOR THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE FLAT CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOR SAILORS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN TUG
HILL REGION. THE BEST STORMS BY FAR HAVE BEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN TUG
HILL REGION...WHERE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND TERRAIN HAS FOCUSED A STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. EXTENSIVE
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES PUSHING INTO MOST OF THE LAKE PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL. SOME FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE LAKE TEMP.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG AND INLAND
FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR WILL LINGER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TUG HILL REGION AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE LAKES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE LAKE PLAINS MORE CLEAR.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR VSBY.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 031737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
137 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS STARTING TO FORM ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND SOUTHERN TUG
HILL REGION. THE BEST STORMS BY FAR HAVE BEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN TUG
HILL REGION...WHERE A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND TERRAIN HAS FOCUSED A STORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. EXTENSIVE
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
FARTHER INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING
SKIES PUSHING INTO MOST OF THE LAKE PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL. SOME FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE LAKE TEMP.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXTENSIVE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG AND INLAND
FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL PRIMARILY
BE VFR...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR WILL LINGER ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TUG HILL REGION AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE LAKES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND KEEP THE LAKE PLAINS MORE CLEAR.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL ALSO DECREASE.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
AREAS OF IFR. ELSEWHERE EXPECT PATCHY LIGHTER FOG/BR WITH MVFR VSBY.
A SLIGHTLY DRIER PUSH OF LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY HELP TO CLEAR THE FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BURN
OFF BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REST OF FRIDAY WITH SCT DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031433
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TREND TOWARDS A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED SUN...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AS DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE
SHADOWS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT BECOMES ACTIVE IT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...SO EXPECT MOST OF
THE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
NYS THRUWAY.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL. SOME FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE LAKE TEMP.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DESPITE THIS
ACTIVITY...THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031433
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1033 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND ALSO OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
DURING THE AFTERNOON THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD TREND TOWARDS A MIX
OF CLOUDS AND LIMITED SUN...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE ON
THE LAKE PLAINS AS DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE
SHADOWS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.

A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE TIME THE FRONT BECOMES ACTIVE IT WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES...SO EXPECT MOST OF
THE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
NYS THRUWAY.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL. SOME FOG MAY PERSIST ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORE FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE LAKE TEMP.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY VFR.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. DESPITE THIS
ACTIVITY...THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 031147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH AREAS OF IFR.
THESE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL THIN OUT AND BE REPLACED BY
CIRRUS AND DIURNAL BASED CU.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A
WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 031147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH AREAS OF IFR.
THESE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL THIN OUT AND BE REPLACED BY
CIRRUS AND DIURNAL BASED CU.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A
WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH AREAS OF IFR.
THESE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL THIN OUT AND BE REPLACED BY
CIRRUS AND DIURNAL BASED CU.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A
WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 031147
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
747 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH ABOUT 14Z...WITH AREAS OF IFR.
THESE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL THIN OUT AND BE REPLACED BY
CIRRUS AND DIURNAL BASED CU.

AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A
WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

VFR WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE VALLEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030712
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
312 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...
AND WHILE THIS FEATURE COULD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC
WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OF AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT WIDELY
SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE DAY AS DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH SBCAPES TO BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG. THIS AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 20K AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL ELEVATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS...BUT AGAIN...COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SPOTTY. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHC POPS IN PLACE FROM CONTINUITY
WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION BEING THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY. H85 TEMPS
WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO 16C...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE
BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST AREAS
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S CERTAINLY GIVING THE AIRMASS A
SULTRY FEEL.

AS THE SFC TROUGH PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE FROM QUEBEC WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OUR
SKIES WHILE ALSO INTRODUCING A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO BETWEEN 60 AND 65
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE 50S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE WARM AND UNEVENTFUL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
AS THE AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND...AND SURFACE-BASED RIDGING INITIALLY CENTERED
OVER QUEBEC PROVINCE GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COASTLINE. OUTSIDE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEY FOG TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AT THIS POINT DO
NOT FORESEE ANY NOTEWORTHY BLEMISHES ON THE FORECAST.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...850 MB TEMPS WILL INITIALLY RANGE
BETWEEN +14C AND +16C ON FRIDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN +16C AND +17C BY SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...NIGHTTIME LOWS INITIALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH THE AXIS OF THE DOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGES
REMAINING PARKED A LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING LABOR DAY...THE
FINAL DAY OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL ALSO FEATURE DRY AND
VERY WARM WEATHER. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL ADVECT 850 MB TEMPS OF +17C TO +18C INTO OUR
REGION...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD LEAD INTO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

AFTER THAT...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE PACKAGES REMAIN IN LOOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING INTO OUR
AREA BETWEEN LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE OVER OUR REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING WEDNESDAY. IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO LOWER-END CHANCES OF CONVECTION RETURNING
FOR BOTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS
IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE BY 14Z.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...THE BULK OF
THE DAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH OVER LAKE ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
SPOTTY CONVECTION FROM THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL LEAVE A VERY WEAK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES
REMAINING IN PLACE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE FRESHENING NORTHEAST
WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO...HOWEVER WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THESE WINDS COULD MAKE FOR SOME CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF SODUS BAY...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STILL AVERAGE BELOW SCA LEVELS.

LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...FAIR DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND
NEGLIGIBLE WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030554
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORE FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
THIS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AND IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS WILL FEATURE MID SUMMER WARMTH WITH
STICKY HUMIDITY LEVELS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING THAT WOULD PUT A DENT IN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE
BY 14Z.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...THE BULK OF
THE DAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030554
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MORE FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE INITIAL DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
THIS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AND IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. OTHERWISE...
THE REMAINING PRE DAWN HOURS WILL FEATURE MID SUMMER WARMTH WITH
STICKY HUMIDITY LEVELS.

FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH OF A FOCUS
FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING THAT WOULD PUT A DENT IN THE RECENT
DRY CONDITIONS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE FOUND ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN THE
THOUSAND ISLANDS REGION AND IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SRN TIER AND
FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE
BY 14Z.

OTHERWISE FOR THURSDAY...A FEW WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK TROUGH
WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THIS ACTIVITY...THE BULK OF
THE DAY WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OUR CWA...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT BUT SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SOME SHOWERS.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03Z TAF CYCLE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWING A GENERALLY DRIER
AIR MASS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT JHW. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD ALSO FORM AS A TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT
ART...WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LOW VSBY AT BUF/IAG/ROC.

ON THURSDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MOST OF THESE LIKELY TO MISS TAF LOCATIONS. ANY
IMPACT WOULD BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS MAY START OFF IFR OR LOWER IN
SOME SPOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE AS LOW MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MIXES OUT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OUR CWA...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT BUT SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SOME SHOWERS.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03Z TAF CYCLE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWING A GENERALLY DRIER
AIR MASS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT JHW. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD ALSO FORM AS A TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT
ART...WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LOW VSBY AT BUF/IAG/ROC.

ON THURSDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MOST OF THESE LIKELY TO MISS TAF LOCATIONS. ANY
IMPACT WOULD BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS MAY START OFF IFR OR LOWER IN
SOME SPOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE AS LOW MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MIXES OUT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OUR CWA...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT BUT SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SOME SHOWERS.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03Z TAF CYCLE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWING A GENERALLY DRIER
AIR MASS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT JHW. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD ALSO FORM AS A TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT
ART...WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LOW VSBY AT BUF/IAG/ROC.

ON THURSDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MOST OF THESE LIKELY TO MISS TAF LOCATIONS. ANY
IMPACT WOULD BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS MAY START OFF IFR OR LOWER IN
SOME SPOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE AS LOW MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MIXES OUT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1044 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...RADAR SHOWS JUST A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN OUR CWA...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY. THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION WHICH WILL LEAVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION DRY.
A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION
SOMEWHAT BUT SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL DEVELOPS SOME SHOWERS.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 03Z TAF CYCLE...FOG HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWING A GENERALLY DRIER
AIR MASS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP...WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER MOST LIKELY TO
IMPACT JHW. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD ALSO FORM AS A TROUGH DROPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALSO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AT
ART...WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR LOW VSBY AT BUF/IAG/ROC.

ON THURSDAY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH MOST OF THESE LIKELY TO MISS TAF LOCATIONS. ANY
IMPACT WOULD BE BRIEF. CONDITIONS MAY START OFF IFR OR LOWER IN
SOME SPOTS...BUT THESE SHOULD IMPROVE AS LOW MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
MIXES OUT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030128
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030128
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 030128
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 030128
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
928 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN THIS PERIOD PER LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...

WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 022354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 022354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT NONE REMAINING IN OUR
CWA. THIS WILL LEAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF FROM THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT BUT THE HRRR DOES HAVE IT.
PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS HAVE SCATTERED
OUT LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG
THE LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE
EVENING PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR VSBY.
VSBY/CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR AT ART WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021953
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLASSIC WARM SEASON LOOK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG AND INLAND FROM
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND STABLE LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE BY FAR IS ALONG A WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF HAMILTON INTO NIAGARA COUNTY
WHERE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND PRODUCE A FEW SPOTTY DOWNPOURS ACROSS NIAGARA
AND POSSIBLY ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PREVENTING ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING...AND LEAVE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES
THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM
THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT PAST EXPERIENCE
HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WITH BASES IN THE 035-050 KFT RANGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR KIAG...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...
SHOULD IT FORM...WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
AT KIAG. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS ENE OF THE LAKES MORE
CLEAR.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE EVENING
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR VSBY.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021953
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY PRODUCING A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR FRIDAY WITH A
RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CLASSIC WARM SEASON LOOK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG AND INLAND FROM
THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND STABLE LAKE SHADOWS NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES. THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE BY FAR IS ALONG A WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF HAMILTON INTO NIAGARA COUNTY
WHERE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. EXPECT THIS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE AND PRODUCE A FEW SPOTTY DOWNPOURS ACROSS NIAGARA
AND POSSIBLY ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ELSEWHERE THE
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE PREVENTING ANY DEEP MOIST CONVECTION...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER.

THE DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL END BY EARLY EVENING...AND LEAVE MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES
THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE ADDED BOOST OF LAKE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF FROM
THIS SOLUTION SOMEWHAT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT PAST EXPERIENCE
HAS SHOWN THAT EVEN WEAK BOUNDARIES CAN PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE WARM LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE EXPECT MORE FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LONGER SEPTEMBER NIGHTS.
MOST OF THE FOG WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...BUT MORE DENSE FOG WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS. MAY ALSO SEE
ADVECTION FOG DEVELOP OVER AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE BUFFALO AREA AND JEFFERSON COUNTY
SHORELINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY. GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
AND WEAK FORCING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE. THE
LAKE PLAINS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORE TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
ROCHESTER SHOULD SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW SPREADS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS INLAND.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND LOWER 80S ON THE HILLS. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES A LITTLE COOLER. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE MAKING FOR ANOTHER HUMID DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND DRY LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. A WEAK UPPER LOW
STALLED UNDERNEATH A LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS
MICHIGAN WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...A
SURFACE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA AND ADVECT SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

DEW POINTS WILL ALSO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 50S WHICH WILL
MAKE IT FEEL LESS HUMID. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS
WHICH SHOULD DROP TO NEAR THESE DEW POINT VALUES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHTS. FOG SHOULD FORM EACH NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR MASS
SHOULD RESULT IN LESS WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE MORE TYPICAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND MAYBE ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE MID 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD
FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON LABOR DAY INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GGEM GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH THIS AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN A BIT TOWARD MID-WEEK
THE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL FAIRLY CLOSE. CONSENSUS HAS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS LIKELY TO DROP
ACROSS OR INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY
NIGHT. THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK TOWARD THE
REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WITH BASES IN THE 035-050 KFT RANGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR KIAG...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...
SHOULD IT FORM...WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
AT KIAG. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS ENE OF THE LAKES MORE
CLEAR.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE EVENING
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR VSBY.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ON BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE LABOR
DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT WAVE ACTION
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021744
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BURN OFF BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH
BASES IN THE 035-050 KFT RANGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR KIAG...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT
FORM...WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS
ENE OF THE LAKES MORE CLEAR.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE EVENING
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR VSBY.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021744
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
144 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW STRATUS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BURN OFF BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. ELSEWHERE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH
BASES IN THE 035-050 KFT RANGE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA TO NEAR KIAG...AND ALSO ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SHOULD IT
FORM...WILL REMAIN VERY SPARSE. STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL KEEP AREAS
ENE OF THE LAKES MORE CLEAR.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME FOG AND LOW
STRATUS MAY FORM AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER LAKE ERIE AND ONTARIO...
BUT WITH LIGHT FLOW THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN OVER AND ALONG THE
LAKESHORES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. BY LATE EVENING
PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS LAND AREAS WITH MVFR/IFR
VSBY DEVELOPING. FOG WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR VSBY.

ON THURSDAY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK
TROUGH COMBINES WITH LAKE MOISTURE. THE FOG/BR WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR/IFR VSBY THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
MIXING OUT. BY AFTERNOON ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY...BUT
AGAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021435
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS AND EVEN
SOME FOG EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY MID
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND EVEN SOME FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON INCLUDING KART AS EXTENSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR KIAG AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM
KJHW TO KELZ ALONG THE TYPICAL INLAND PUSHING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY
SPARSE.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021435
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS AND EVEN
SOME FOG EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT BY MID
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL LAG BEHIND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH MIDDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND EVEN SOME FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON INCLUDING KART AS EXTENSIVE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A STEEP SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER NEAR KIAG AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER FROM
KJHW TO KELZ ALONG THE TYPICAL INLAND PUSHING LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN VERY
SPARSE.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATING OVER TIME WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING...YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 021131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATING OVER TIME WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING...YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 021131
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATING OVER TIME WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING...YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020826
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATING OVER TIME WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING...YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020826
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATING OVER TIME WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING...YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020826
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATING OVER TIME WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING...YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020826
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
426 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES COULD GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD
OTHERWISE BE RAIN FREE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL BUCKLE A LITTLE AND TURN WEAKLY
CYCLONIC TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/
COOL FRONT THAT WILL SAG IN OUR DIRECTION FROM ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ANY AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATING OVER TIME WITH INCREASING DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AREAWIDE BY LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS OUR REGION...AND THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND CONTINUED HEATING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON. JUDGING FROM
A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
WOULD BE ALONG THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF BUFFALO...AND ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. EVEN IN THESE AREAS THOUGH...COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME
LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN FREE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND +17C
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM ANY
LAKE INFLUENCES.

TONIGHT...ANY LIMITED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION STILL ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE EVENING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LARGELY FALL
APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS A RESULT...MOSTLY QUIET
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR A LARGE
CHUNK OF THE NIGHT... BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH/ COOL FRONT BEGINS SAGGING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO LATE. AT THAT POINT... THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE LIFT
FROM THESE FEATURES AND WARMTH AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
LAKE ONTARIO COULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAKE AND ITS ADJOINING
AREAS...FOR WHICH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLAY FROM
OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL...WITH THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AREAS OF FOG
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. WITH RESPECT TO
TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST EXCITING WEATHER OF THE ENTIRE
PERIOD WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM OVER
THE MIDWEST BACKS THE FLOW TO THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
TURN FORCING A BACK DOOR COOL FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. AS ELUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD
TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND FROM
THE LAKES DUE BOTH TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS
THE FACT THAT GREATER HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
NEEDED TO OVERCOME A WEAK MID-LEVEL CAP.

ANY ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UBIQUITOUS VALLEY FOG THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS TO RUN IN THE LOW 60S WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS WELL AS A FEW SHELTERED SOUTHERN TIER LOCALES DIPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S.

WHILE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO NEW YORK FROM ONTARIO BEHIND
THE FRONT SHOULD PRODUCE A SLIGHTLY COOLER END TO THE WORK WEEK ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OUT OF
CANADA AND DEWPOINTS THAT WILL RUN IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS MANY
AREAS SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY PLEASANT CONCLUSION TO THE WORK WEEK
INDEED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL BUMP DEWPOINTS UP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S AND VALLEY FOG ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE WARM AND SUNNY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL RUN IN
THE MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF
THE PERIOD FALLING ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...IN TURN ADVECTING WARMER AIR OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GENERATING DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ON
LABOR DAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES WITH MID 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO RUN IN THE 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO STILL EXIST
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EVENTUALLY
MAKES ITS WAY TO THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN FOR TUESDAY WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING DELAYED BY AT LEAST 24 HOURS. WARM AIR ADVECTING POLEWARD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY WARM SEPTEMBER
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG AND ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING/
MIXING...YIELDING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE OVER AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES
INTO OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION
RIGHT THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RESULTING IN CONTINUED
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WITH A HUMID AIRMASS
ALSO REMAINING IN PLACE...THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020557
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND SOME STRATUS. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED
IFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE ACROSS
AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES INTO
OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020557
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND SOME STRATUS. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED
IFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE ACROSS
AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES INTO
OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020557
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND SOME STRATUS. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED
IFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE ACROSS
AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES INTO
OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020557
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT...NOCTURNAL COOLING OF OUR WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL
AGAIN RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG AND SOME STRATUS. THE FOG MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN TIER
VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT LIFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS. THIS FOG WILL THEN DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF VFR...WITH LOCALIZED
IFR IN FOG THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE ACROSS
AND AROUND LAKE ONTARIO AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PRESSES INTO
OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE
IS A BIT SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH AN INVERSION AGAIN
LIKELY TO FORM THIS MAY JUST RESULT IN MORE FOG AND A BIT LESS
STRATUS. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR
THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BU THIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE IS A BIT SHALLOWER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT STILL AMPLE FOR LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO FORM. AT 02Z FOG
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FORM...AND WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE THERE
MAY BE MORE FOG TONIGHT WITH LESS PREVALENT STRATUS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. TAFS FOLLOW SIMILAR TIMING TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 020229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE
IS A BIT SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH AN INVERSION AGAIN
LIKELY TO FORM THIS MAY JUST RESULT IN MORE FOG AND A BIT LESS
STRATUS. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR
THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BU THIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE IS A BIT SHALLOWER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT STILL AMPLE FOR LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO FORM. AT 02Z FOG
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FORM...AND WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE THERE
MAY BE MORE FOG TONIGHT WITH LESS PREVALENT STRATUS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. TAFS FOLLOW SIMILAR TIMING TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE
IS A BIT SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH AN INVERSION AGAIN
LIKELY TO FORM THIS MAY JUST RESULT IN MORE FOG AND A BIT LESS
STRATUS. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR
THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BU THIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE IS A BIT SHALLOWER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT STILL AMPLE FOR LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO FORM. AT 02Z FOG
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FORM...AND WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE THERE
MAY BE MORE FOG TONIGHT WITH LESS PREVALENT STRATUS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. TAFS FOLLOW SIMILAR TIMING TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 020229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE
IS A BIT SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH AN INVERSION AGAIN
LIKELY TO FORM THIS MAY JUST RESULT IN MORE FOG AND A BIT LESS
STRATUS. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR
THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT OVERDONE...WITH
A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A
STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS
WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C
WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES BU THIS IS TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE 00Z BUF
SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE IS A BIT SHALLOWER COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT...BUT STILL AMPLE FOR LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO FORM. AT 02Z FOG
HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FORM...AND WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE THERE
MAY BE MORE FOG TONIGHT WITH LESS PREVALENT STRATUS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT. TAFS FOLLOW SIMILAR TIMING TO LAST NIGHT...WITH SUBTLE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE
IS A BIT SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH AN INVERSION AGAIN
LIKELY TO FORM THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT DO MUCH TO PREVENT AREAS OF
FOG FROM FORMING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE...WITH A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE
H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE IS A BIT SHALLOWER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...BUT
STILL AMPLE FOR LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO FORM. BASED ON THIS THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE FOG AND A BIT LESS STRATUS THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
GENERAL...TAFS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TIMING TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 012357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS MOISTURE
IS A BIT SHALLOWER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WITH AN INVERSION AGAIN
LIKELY TO FORM THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT DO MUCH TO PREVENT AREAS OF
FOG FROM FORMING. FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHERN TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS...SIMILAR TO
THAT WHICH DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY A BIT
OVERDONE...WITH A CONSENSUS SUGGESTING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS AT THE CONVERGENCE OF THE ERIE/ONTARIO LAKE
BREEZES...AND POSSIBLY A STORM ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. ANY STORMS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED IN NATURE. OTHERWISE
H8 TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING
SHOWS MOISTURE IS A BIT SHALLOWER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...BUT
STILL AMPLE FOR LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS TO FORM. BASED ON THIS THERE
MAY BE A BIT MORE FOG AND A BIT LESS STRATUS THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
GENERAL...TAFS WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR TIMING TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011904
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011904
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011904
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
304 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011831
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
231 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
EVENING SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER
AS STABLE LAKE SHADOWS SPREAD INLAND AND PROTECT MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL EASE ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK UPTICK IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING AND SOME INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FROM THE WARM LAKE WATERS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMING IN THE TYPICAL SOUTHERN
TIER RIVER VALLEYS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE
COOLER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND TUG HILL REGION. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +16C
WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND LOWER
80S ON THE HILLS. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES
COOLER.

ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WILL END BY EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING AS A PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
WESTERN AND NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY THURSDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPS
GET KNOCKED BACK A NOTCH ON NORTHEAST FLOW...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WILL BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A LITTLE EAST TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LABOR DAY MONDAY BUT STILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DRY AND VERY WARM DAY. 850MB TEMPS AROUND +15C
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BOTH DAYS AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MODERATE. SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND BOOST
850MB TEMPS TO AT LEAST +16C WITH DEEPER MIXING. THIS WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S...AND IF MIXING IS STRONG ENOUGH THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME UPSIDE POTENTIAL.

BY TUESDAY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE 12Z GFS
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A FASTER AND STRONGER FRONT ON TUESDAY...
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WEAKER...KEEPING THE FRONT ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO. FOR NOW HAVE INTRODUCED A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NEW DAY 7 FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011713
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011713
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011713
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011713
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY RAIN-FREE WITH
AREAS OF FOG EACH MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG PERSIST OVER MUCH OF OSWEGO AND
CAYUGA COUNTIES BUT THAT SHOULD ERODE BY 18Z AS DAYTIME MIXING
BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MORE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FORM OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN
TIER.

A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE EASTERN RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. OTHERWISE H8
TEMPS AROUND +20C WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND
FROM THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. MORE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL FORM AFTER 04Z AND DISSIPATE BY 16Z WEDNEDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED IFR IN FOG THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN MORNING FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION INTO
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT
IN AREAS OF FOG EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. PREVAILING SW
FLOW WILL ENHANCE LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT
CHOP ON THE EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL
REMAIN 12 KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011420
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT.

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ERODE BY 16Z AS DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS
THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011420
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT.

ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL ERODE BY 16Z AS DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS
THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY. HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 16Z LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LINGERING AT NEAR 8AM ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 930AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A
SEPARATE STATEMENT ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 930AM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS A WIDE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW REDUCED 1-2 MILE VISIBILITY. SITES WITH A BIT MORE WIND ARE
FAVORING THE STRATUS OVER FOG SUCH AS AT KBUF.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT
850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LINGER NEAR 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 011149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LINGERING AT NEAR 8AM ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 930AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A
SEPARATE STATEMENT ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 930AM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS A WIDE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW REDUCED 1-2 MILE VISIBILITY. SITES WITH A BIT MORE WIND ARE
FAVORING THE STRATUS OVER FOG SUCH AS AT KBUF.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT
850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LINGER NEAR 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 011149
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SUMMERLIKE WARMTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WORKING TOGETHER WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRAP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. KBUF 12Z RAOB SHOWS NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 2KFT THEN DRY ABOVE THAT.

HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND
CLOSER TO 60 ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS LINGERING AT NEAR 8AM ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE AREA. DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KIAG AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER BUT IS CONSIDERED FAIRLY PATCHY BASED ON SURFACE OBS
AND PEEKING AT AREA WEBCAMS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 930AM FOR NORTHERN ERIE AND NIAGARA COUNTIES WITH A
SEPARATE STATEMENT ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 930AM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER TO COVER FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS A WIDE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OBS BENEATH THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW REDUCED 1-2 MILE VISIBILITY. SITES WITH A BIT MORE WIND ARE
FAVORING THE STRATUS OVER FOG SUCH AS AT KBUF.

THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE BY MID MORNING AS
DAYTIME MIXING BREAKS THE SURFACE INVERSION. AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND
850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY TODAY. HAVE TAKEN BACK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BASED ON NEWER 00Z GUIDANCE AND STEEP INVERSION RIGHT AT
850MB WHICH MAY PREVENT THE FULL MIXING OF WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
SURFACE. HIGHS NOW FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING
BENEATH THE INVERSION SO FOG/LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
EXTENSIVE AS THEY ARE THIS MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG IN
THE FORECAST. LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKES TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR COSMETIC
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MAIN
STORY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AND HUMID AIR FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND +20C WHICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS 1 TO
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.

THIS WILL ALL TRANSLATE INTO A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY DRY...WARM AND
HUMID WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH 90 POSSIBLE IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NOT PROVIDING MUCH RELIEF ONLY SLIPPING BACK
INTO THE 60S.

12Z MODELS SHOW A SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MAY WORK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED STORMS INN OUR
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AND ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ABOVE A
700MB INVERSION. HAVE COVERED THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS LAKE INFLUENCES WOULD NOT BE A FACTOR IN
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

LATEST MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSING SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC. ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING INLAND FROM
THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF THE
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD DIRECTLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. WITH OUR AIRMASS THUS LIKELY TO BE
STRONGLY CAPPED...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HEATING CYCLE.

OTHERWISE...THE DOMINANT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO MIDSUMMER-LIKE
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AGAIN AVERAGING IN THE MID 80S...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MAINLY
RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAPPING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE. AREAS OF IFR AND LOWER FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS LINGER NEAR 12Z. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY
14-16Z THIS MORNING LEAVING SUNNY VFR SKIES GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND
OF PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS AGAIN AFTER 6Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR. LOCALIZED IFR IN PATCHY FOG.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP AREAS OF
FOG IN PLACE AT LEAST EACH MORNING. PREVAILING SW FLOW WILL ENHANCE
LAKE BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOONS...PRODUCING A LIGHT CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES...HOWEVER WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN 12
KNOTS/2FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK/TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/SMITH





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities