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000
FXUS61 KBUF 290254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET
UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 03Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT
BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/TMA
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 290254
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1054 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH LINGERING SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET
UP THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A FEW DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 03Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT
BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/TMA
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 282356
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
756 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES ITS WAY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY FLOW BRINGING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/TMA
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 282353
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 282353
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
753 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RAINFALL THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS VARIED WIDELY FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...TO AROUND AN INCH NEAR LAKE ERIE
AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE
GENESEE VALLEY. FOR OUR CLIMATE STATION IN ROCHESTER NEW YORK THIS
TWO- DAY RAINFALL EVENT HAS BROUGHT SOME NOTE WORTHY CLIMATE
STATS.

EVENT RAINFALL SUNDAY AND THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY TOTALED 3.84 INCHES OF
RAIN IN ROCHESTER. THERE WAS 1.42 INCHES OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...AND A DAILY
RECORD OF 2.42 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY.

THIS 2-DAY OR "48-HOUR" EVENT TOTAL OF 3.84 INCHES PLACES 6TH
WETTEST OF ALL 2-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY. BELOW
ARE THE TOP WETTEST 2-DAY TOTALS IN ROCHESTER`S HISTORY WHICH DATES
BACK TO 1871.


1   4.96 INCHES     OCTOBER 19-20 1873
2   4.21 INCHES     AUGUST 27-28 1871
3   4.20 INCHES     JUNE 6-7 1980
4   4.19 INCHES     AUGUST 28-29 1893
5   3.85 INCHES     MAY 16-17 1974
6   3.84 INCHES     JULY 27-28 2014


THE RECENT RAINS HAVE ALSO BUMPED ROCHESTER INTO A TOP 5 WETTEST
JULY ON RECORD. BELOW ARE A LISTING OF THE TOP 5 WETTEST JULYS ON
RECORD FOR ROCHESTER NEW YORK:

RANK    PRECIPITATION   YEAR
         (INCHES)

1       9.70            1947
2       8.08            1945
3       8.02            2006
4       7.51            2014
5       6.37            1897

THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS REMAINING IN JULY...THUS THE FINAL JULY
2014 PRECIPITATION TOTAL MAY INCREASE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 282337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA





000
FXUS61 KBUF 282337
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
737 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AT 00Z. CIGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
RISE THIS EVENING WITH MOST LOCATIONS AT 4K-6K FEET. MOST CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU
WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A WEAKER FLOW IS FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN/TMA






000
FXUS61 KBUF 282112
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 21Z. WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOB 2K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 2-4SM IN RA EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CIGS WILL RISE
TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING... AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN





000
FXUS61 KBUF 282112
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 21Z. WIDESPREAD CIGS
AOB 2K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 2-4SM IN RA EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CIGS WILL RISE
TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING... AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS. SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/TMA
MARINE...FRANKLIN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 281951
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 281951
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
351 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SPOTTY SHOWERS.

A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/RGEM GUIDANCE FORECAST A VORTICITY
MAX WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THIS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THE IMPULSE ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS ALSO WILL HELP ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ON LAKE
ERIE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST OF THE LAKE. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...COMBINING WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S
IN MOST AREAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IMPULSES...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A WEAKER
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW CHANCE POPS.
ALL AND ALL...SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE RATHER SPOTTY AND
LIGHT...WITH QPF AVERAGING LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH (2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL) AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND OPEN UP TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOW SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH THESE FEATURES WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER
THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AS THE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND 500H HEIGHTS RISE SO WILL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR CLIMO
OVER THE WEEKEND...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 281901
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 281901
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
301 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND. REMAINING FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE
CANCELED.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AT 19Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS
AOB 1K FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS...AND AROUND 30 KNOTS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO...WILL
DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER EAST. SMALL
CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 281721
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN OF VARYING INTENSITY. PATCHY HEAVY RAIN FROM FINGER LAKES TO
NORTH COUNTRY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING
OVER THE AREA.  EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ERIE WITH WESTERLY
FLOW BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LOW CLOUDS/VALLEY FOG.

TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF KITH AT 17Z. WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA IN FINGER LAKES
AND NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD...CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.  SCATTERED CU WITH 4-5K FT BASES ON TUESDAY.

NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 25 KNOTS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST.  WESTERLY
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ERIE AND THE
NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003-004-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 281612
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1212 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER COUNTIES.  WILL KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
MONROE...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RIGHT UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO COUNTY. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS EAST LATER
TODAY...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE.

LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A
HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED INCH PLUS AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER LOW.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA BR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 4-5K FT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.

CEILING WILL RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS
DRIER FILTERS IN...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE
COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003-004-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 281612
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1212 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.
A COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER COUNTIES.  WILL KEEP THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR
MONROE...LIVINGSTON...ONTARIO...AND WAYNE COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RIGHT UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO COUNTY. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS EAST LATER
TODAY...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE.

LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A
HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED INCH PLUS AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER LOW.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA BR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 4-5K FT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.

CEILING WILL RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS
DRIER FILTERS IN...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE
COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ003-004-013-
     014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 281339
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RIGHT UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO COUNTY. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS EAST LATER
TODAY...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE.

LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A
HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED INCH PLUS AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER LOW.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA BR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 4-5K FT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.

CEILING WILL RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS
DRIER FILTERS IN...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE
COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 281339
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
939 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO BE MAINLY RIGHT UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW NOW OVER ONTARIO COUNTY. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS EAST LATER
TODAY...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE.

LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A
HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH ISOLATED INCH PLUS AMOUNTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER LOW.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1K FT WITH VSBYS 1-3SM IN +RA BR ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...WITH CEILINGS RISING TO 4-5K FT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.

CEILING WILL RISE TO 4-5K FT ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AS
DRIER FILTERS IN...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE
COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO 1-2K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/JM
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN/JM
MARINE...FRANKLIN/JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 281224
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
824 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE MAINLY RIGHT UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THIS
FEATURE PULLS EAST LATER TODAY...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE.

LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NY THIS MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL REPLACE THE MORE
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE TYPE WEATHER OCCURRING THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A
MORE GENERAL STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH AN INCH PLUS
ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST...MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. THIS
WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE REGION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY
LATE MONDAY.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE REGION DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RAIN...AND A COOL
MOIST NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY BEING FOUND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING AS DRIER FILTERS IN...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY BRING A ROUND
OF MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS BACK IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...IF THINGS IMPROVE TO VFR HERE AT ALL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 281224
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
824 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING AREAS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH VARYING INTENSITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE IS
ALSO SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE MAINLY RIGHT UNDER AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. AS THIS
FEATURE PULLS EAST LATER TODAY...THUNDER CHANCES WILL DECREASE.

LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION AXIS WILL PIVOT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NY THIS MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOT
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL REPLACE THE MORE
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE TYPE WEATHER OCCURRING THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A
MORE GENERAL STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH AN INCH PLUS
ACROSS AREAS THAT SEE THE HEAVIEST...MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL. THIS
WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE REGION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY
LATE MONDAY.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 12Z...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH IF
NOT ALL OF THE REGION DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF RAIN...AND A COOL
MOIST NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY BEING FOUND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KBUF AND KIAG.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS THIS
EVENING AS DRIER FILTERS IN...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE COOL MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROBABLY BRING A ROUND
OF MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS BACK IN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...IF THINGS IMPROVE TO VFR HERE AT ALL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 280920
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...STRETCHING WEST OUT OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THESE AREAS
CAN EXPECT AN INITIAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LULL IN PRECIP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN NEW
YORK. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FILLED BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION
AXIS NOW PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
REPLACE EARLY MORNING SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A STEADY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH AN INCH PLUS IN AREAS THAT SEE
HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF
THE REGION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 09Z AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE NOW
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION....INCLUDING THE KART
TERMINAL. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FILLED BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BEHIND THAT INITIAL WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO THE PRECIP AND COOL MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL HELP KEEP
MOST AREAS BELOW VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
COME BACK IN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS AND
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL
PROBABLY BRING A ROUND OF MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE KJHW
TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES..

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 280920
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY
RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. RAIN
WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A COOLER PATTERN
WILL THEN SET UP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE NOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...STRETCHING WEST OUT OVER LAKE ONTARIO. THESE AREAS
CAN EXPECT AN INITIAL HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LULL IN PRECIP OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS NOW PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN NEW
YORK. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FILLED BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN NEW
YORK IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. LEADING EDGE OF DEFORMATION
AXIS NOW PIVOTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL
MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK THROUGH MID MORNING...THEN INTO
NORTHCENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW ROUNDING THE BOTTOM
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
REPLACE EARLY MORNING SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A STEADY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...WITH AN INCH PLUS IN AREAS THAT SEE
HEAVIER RAIN FOR THE LONGEST PERIOD OF TIME. THIS WILL GIVE MUCH OF
THE REGION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREA WIDE...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER
GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULYS IN
RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT
ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER OF THE NATION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BRING
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
LAKE RESPONSE WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BOTH
LAKES AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LOOKING AT THE DETAILS...TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD START DRY WITH AN
AREA OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER UPSTATE NY. DEEPER
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO
WESTERN NY DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY
CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO THE SHOWERS EAST
AND NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS WESTERN NY AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME
ISOLATED AS DEEPER MOISTURE PULLS AWAY...ALTHOUGH WITH LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY A FEW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SUMMER...WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY ONLY INTO THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOW ELEVATIONS AND MID TO
UPPER 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AROUND 70 ON THE HILLS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER
50S IN THE COOLER INLAND AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE AIRMASS MODIFIES AND THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL OUT.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 09Z AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL WAVE NOW
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION....INCLUDING THE KART
TERMINAL. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REALLY FILLED BACK IN ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK BEHIND THAT INITIAL WAVE EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
THANKS TO THE PRECIP AND COOL MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL HELP KEEP
MOST AREAS BELOW VFR THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
COME BACK IN BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR MOST AREAS AND
SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF LAKE ERIE WILL
PROBABLY BRING A ROUND OF MVFR/SPOTTY IFR CONDITIONS TO THE KJHW
TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOW IN PLACE WITH A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR BOTH LAKES..

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 280617
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
217 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NYS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION ON EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS TONIGHT SHOWING AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE
CELLS WILL BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. WESTERN NY IS NOW IN A
BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STEADY
RAIN TO PICK BACK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS DEFORMATION AXIS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...GIVING MUCH OF THE REGION ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FOR A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD. OF COURSE LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES+ ARE LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING CELLS...AS WELL AS SOME AREAS NOT TOPPING THE ONE INCH MARK
DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF CONVECTION EARLY ON.

BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW MONDAY MORNING MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL
TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 06Z HEAVIEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS HEAVIER
ACTIVITY WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHEN THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE KROC TERMINAL...THEN LATE TONIGHT AT KART.
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO
THE KIAG AND KBUF TERMINALS. EXPECT KJHW TO NOT BE FAR BEHIND. WINDS
ARE CALM THERE NOW...BUT COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ENSUE THERE
AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/JM/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 280617
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
217 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NYS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO EASTERN NYS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION ON EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS TONIGHT SHOWING AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE
CELLS WILL BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. WESTERN NY IS NOW IN A
BIT OF A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT STEADY
RAIN TO PICK BACK UP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN NY AS DEFORMATION AXIS NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
PIVOTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY WILL
RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH...GIVING MUCH OF THE REGION ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FOR A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD. OF COURSE LOCALIZED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES+ ARE LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING CELLS...AS WELL AS SOME AREAS NOT TOPPING THE ONE INCH MARK
DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF CONVECTION EARLY ON.

BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW MONDAY MORNING MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL
TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 06Z HEAVIEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY AND EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS HEAVIER
ACTIVITY WILL PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WHEN THIS
ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS THE KROC TERMINAL...THEN LATE TONIGHT AT KART.
COOL...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS TO
THE KIAG AND KBUF TERMINALS. EXPECT KJHW TO NOT BE FAR BEHIND. WINDS
ARE CALM THERE NOW...BUT COOL AND MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW ENSUE THERE
AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY
FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/JM/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 280251
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REACHING EASTERN NEW YORK STATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING DISPLAY AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER JUST NOW EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND INTO THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THESE CELLS WILL BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EXPAND EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
CONVERGENT WINDS FORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FOUND ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT WESTERN NEW YORK THIS LATE EVENING. THE MAIN SPOKE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH UPWARD LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE MODERATE RAIN THAN HEAVY
RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST TO SLOWLY ROTATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE BAND OF RAIN AND WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRID FOR NOW. THIS BAND OF RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
WILL BRING A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOCALIZE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ABOUT
SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THERE LIKELY WILL BE STEADY
RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK
AS A DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW. ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE
INCH...GIVING MUCH OF THE REGION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FOR A
12-18 HOUR PERIOD. OF COURSE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES+
ARE LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING CELLS...AS WELL AS
SOME AREAS NOT TOPPING THE ONE INCH MARK DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF
CONVECTION.

BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW MONDAY MORNING MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL
TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FOUND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...ADVANCING
EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THESE SEGMENTS AS
THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND FLUCTUATE INTO IFR
OR LOWER RANGE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN THESE HEAVIER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THUNDER. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR
ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 280251
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1051 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REACHING EASTERN NEW YORK STATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS THIS EVENING DISPLAY AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER JUST NOW EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA
RIVER AND INTO THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORMING ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OF NORTHERLY WINDS FROM ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THESE CELLS WILL BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EXPAND EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
CONVERGENT WINDS FORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FOUND ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT WESTERN NEW YORK THIS LATE EVENING. THE MAIN SPOKE OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH UPWARD LIFT AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS NOW ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS MORE MODERATE RAIN THAN HEAVY
RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

EXPECT THIS BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR WEST TO SLOWLY ROTATE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION RATES OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE BAND OF RAIN AND WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRID FOR NOW. THIS BAND OF RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE
AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER
WILL BRING A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOCALIZE HIGHER AMOUNTS.

THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ABOUT
SOUTHERN CENTRAL NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THERE LIKELY WILL BE STEADY
RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND DAYBREAK
AS A DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN FALLS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW. ADDITIONAL RAIN MONDAY WILL RANGE BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE
INCH...GIVING MUCH OF THE REGION ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN FOR A
12-18 HOUR PERIOD. OF COURSE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES+
ARE LIKELY WITHIN HEAVIER AND POSSIBLE TRAINING CELLS...AS WELL AS
SOME AREAS NOT TOPPING THE ONE INCH MARK DUE TO THE SCATTEREDNESS OF
CONVECTION.

BEHIND THIS SURFACE LOW MONDAY MORNING MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
CWA. COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THESE
READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE FALLISH FEEL
TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT DECADES FOR BOTH
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING EXTREME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FOUND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...ADVANCING
EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THESE SEGMENTS AS
THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND FLUCTUATE INTO IFR
OR LOWER RANGE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN THESE HEAVIER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THUNDER. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR
ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 280005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REACHING EASTERN NEW YORK STATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...AS STEADIER
RAINS MOVE DEEPER INTO WESTERN NEW YORK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH MOST MESOSCALE 12Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO FORECAST LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE
THESE AMOUNTS WILL FALL...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF AN
OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC EVENT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH STRETCHING FROM JAMES BAY TO LAKE
HURON THIS EVENING WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT...AND
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TAKE ROUGHLY A SIMILAR TRACK.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFFLUENCE WILL ALIGN WITH DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THIS...SUBTLE LOW AND MID LEVEL BOUNDARIES
WILL FOCUS RAINFALL...AND IT WILL BE THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH
COULD PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2 INCH THRESHOLD.

HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL BE...SINCE IT IS ONLY
LIKELY TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT LOCATION OF
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE ARE URBAN AREAS AND THE
BUFFALO CREEKS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REACH FLOOD STAGE IF RAINFALL
TOTALS TOP 2 INCHES. LARGER BASINS ARE LESS LIKELY TO FLOOD...SINCE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SMALL TO FILL A LARGER
BASIN SUCH AS THE GENESEE RIVER. ALSO...MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE
AT FAIRLY LOW FLOWS TO START WITH.

EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH ROCHESTER
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT TERRIBLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATER TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS A
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE NOW EASTWARD
SURFACE LOW.

THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COOLER AIR AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
FOUND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...ADVANCING
EASTWARD TOWARDS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THESE SEGMENTS AS
THEY CONTINUE EASTWARD WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 15
HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND FLUCTUATE INTO IFR
OR LOWER RANGE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME WITHIN THESE HEAVIER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND THUNDER. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT
EXPECT IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

RAIN WILL EXIT EASTWARD TOMORROW WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS FLOW WILL SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES FOR
ALL OF LAKE ONTARIO....LAKE ERIE AND THE NIAGARA RIVER FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR
MID-WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
WATERSPOUTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271947
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REACHING EASTERN NEW YORK STATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMAINDER THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH 700 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS STEADIER
RAINS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH MOST MESOSCALE 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FORECAST LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL FALL...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF
AN OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC EVENT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TAKE ROUGHLY A
SIMILAR TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFFLUENCE WILL ALIGN
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THIS...SUBTLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS RAINFALL...AND IT WILL BE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH COULD PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2 INCH
THRESHOLD. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TOO DEEP
WITH THE SURFACE LOW. 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES REFLECT 00/06Z GUIDANCE AND
PUT THE BULLS-EYE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR TENDING TO SUPPORT THESE SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THIS...HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL BE...SINCE IT IS ONLY LIKELY TO
IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE IS URBAN AREAS AND THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REACH FLOOD STAGE IF RAINFALL
TOTALS TOP 2 INCHES. LARGER BASINS ARE LESS LIKELY TO FLOOD...SINCE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SMALL TO FILL A LARGER
BASIN SUCH AS THE GENESEE RIVER. ALSO...MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE
AT FAIRLY LOW FLOWS TO START WITH.

EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST TO BUFFALO LATE THIS EVENING AND ROCHESTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT TERRIBLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATER TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS A
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COOLER AIR AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING
STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING FROM SW- NE AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP
A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD POSSIBLY. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO THE
NAM/RGEM ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. EVEN LAKE
ERIE BEARS WATCHING...WITH WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 271947
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...REACHING EASTERN NEW YORK STATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL LAST INTO MONDAY AND THEN A COOLER
PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE REMAINDER THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK
WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE THROUGH 700 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS STEADIER
RAINS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH MOST MESOSCALE 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FORECAST LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL FALL...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF
AN OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC EVENT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TAKE ROUGHLY A
SIMILAR TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFFLUENCE WILL ALIGN
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THIS...SUBTLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS RAINFALL...AND IT WILL BE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH COULD PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2 INCH
THRESHOLD. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TOO DEEP
WITH THE SURFACE LOW. 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES REFLECT 00/06Z GUIDANCE AND
PUT THE BULLS-EYE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH THE LATEST RUNS
OF THE HRRR TENDING TO SUPPORT THESE SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THIS...HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL BE...SINCE IT IS ONLY LIKELY TO
IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE IS URBAN AREAS AND THE BUFFALO
CREEKS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REACH FLOOD STAGE IF RAINFALL
TOTALS TOP 2 INCHES. LARGER BASINS ARE LESS LIKELY TO FLOOD...SINCE
THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO BE TOO SMALL TO FILL A LARGER
BASIN SUCH AS THE GENESEE RIVER. ALSO...MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE
AT FAIRLY LOW FLOWS TO START WITH.

EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST TO BUFFALO LATE THIS EVENING AND ROCHESTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WINDS ALOFT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND NOT TERRIBLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LATER TONIGHT...INSTABILITY WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS A
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CAUSE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. COOLER AIR AND
CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON MONDAY...WHICH IS
UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COOL AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS ANY
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE OTHER THAN A THIN LAYER OF LAKE INDUCED
STRATOCU TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. EXPECT A COOL
AND DRY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL PLATEAU...TO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.

IT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS N THE MID/UPR 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND LOWER TERRAIN.
HOWEVER...THE WARMER SURFACE TEMPS COINCIDE WITH A COOLING ALOFT TO
AROUND +5C AT 850MB AS THE AXIS OF THE PERSISTENT CANADIAN TROUGH CROSSES
THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD THE CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS ON TUESDAY
WITH SOME NIGHTTIME LAKE EFFECT RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVEN THE
ISOLATED RISK OF WATERSPOUTS.

THE LOW CHANCE OF DIURNAL CYCLE SHOWERS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROTATES ANOTHER SPOKE OF VORTICITY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BUMP UP ANOTHER NOTCH...TO THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S...SO WILL BRING BACK A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850MB TEMPS WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO EXCLUDE
THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE LESS COOL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION...AND A LOW CHANCE OF AN
OVERNIGHT SHOWER AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATE
DURING MIDWEEK WILL SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY AND RETREAT INTO QUEBEC BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO NIL POPS ON THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE FROM MID
70S THURSDAY TO THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO
SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING
STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING FROM SW- NE AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP
A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD POSSIBLY. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO THE
NAM/RGEM ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. EVEN LAKE
ERIE BEARS WATCHING...WITH WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS FROM
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COOLER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
MAY CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
700 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS STEADIER
RAINS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH MOST MESOSCALE 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FORECAST LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL FALL...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF
AN OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC EVENT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TAKE ROUGHLY THE
SAME TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFLUENCE WILL ALIGN
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS
OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THIS SUBTLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS THIS MOISTURE...AND IT WILL BE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2 INCH
THRESHOLD. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TOO
DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES REFLECT 00/06Z
GUIDANCE AND PUT THE BULLS-EYE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR TENDING TO SUPPORT THESE SOLUTIONS.
BASED ON THIS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL
BE...SINCE IT IS ONLY LIKELY TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION.
FORECAST FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE IS
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REACH
FLOOD STAGE IF RAINFALL TOTALS TOP 2 INCHES. LARGER BASINS ARE
LESS LIKELY TO FLOOD...SINCE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO
BE TOO SMALL TO FILL A LARGER BASIN SUCH AS THE GENESEE RIVER.
ALSO...MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE AT FAIRLY LOW FLOWS TO START WITH.

EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST TO BUFFALO LATE THIS EVENING AND ROCHESTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WILL END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE
SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING
STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING FROM SW- NE AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP
A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD POSSIBLY. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME MODEST
CHOP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO THE
NAM/RGEM ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. EVEN
LAKE ERIE BEARS WATCHING...WITH WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 271830
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS FROM
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COOLER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE REMAINDER THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT WHICH IS ROUGHLY ALIGNED
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
MAY CLIP THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH
700 PM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...AS STEADIER
RAINS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH MOST MESOSCALE 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO FORECAST LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING EXACTLY WHEN AND
WHERE THESE AMOUNTS WILL FALL...GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OF
AN OTHERWISE SYNOPTIC EVENT.

AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES...WITH THIS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TAKE ROUGHLY THE
SAME TRACK. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND DIFLUENCE WILL ALIGN
WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS
OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THIS SUBTLE LOW AND MID
LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS THIS MOISTURE...AND IT WILL BE THESE
MESOSCALE FEATURES WHICH PUSH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 2 INCH
THRESHOLD. 12Z RUNS OF THE NAM/RGEM HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEAST WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TOO
DEEP WITH THE SURFACE LOW. 09Z SREF ENSEMBLES REFLECT 00/06Z
GUIDANCE AND PUT THE BULLS-EYE ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR TENDING TO SUPPORT THESE SOLUTIONS.
BASED ON THIS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN...BUT DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL
BE...SINCE IT IS ONLY LIKELY TO IMPACT A PORTION OF THE REGION.
FORECAST FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FLOOD WATCH. THE AREA MOST VULNERABLE IS
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND URBAN AREAS...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY REACH
FLOOD STAGE IF RAINFALL TOTALS TOP 2 INCHES. LARGER BASINS ARE
LESS LIKELY TO FLOOD...SINCE THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO
BE TOO SMALL TO FILL A LARGER BASIN SUCH AS THE GENESEE RIVER.
ALSO...MOST RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE AT FAIRLY LOW FLOWS TO START WITH.

EXPECT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND SUNSET...THEN SLOWLY SPREAD
NORTHEAST TO BUFFALO LATE THIS EVENING AND ROCHESTER AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE
IN PLACE...WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS TO LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COOLER AIR AND CLOUDS KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON
MONDAY...WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING
WILL END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW
REGIME. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE
SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING
STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT
CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING FROM SW- NE AS
THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP
A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD POSSIBLY. CIGS WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/MVFR LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME MODEST
CHOP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PIVOT SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND THEN WILL
STRENGTHEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ESTABLISH A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT EVEN SO THE
NAM/RGEM ARE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SUPPORTS SMALL CRAFT
HEADLINES FOR LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE LOWER NIAGARA RIVER. EVEN
LAKE ERIE BEARS WATCHING...WITH WINDS/WAVES LIKELY TO APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAKER FLOW FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271435
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS FROM
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COOLER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE...WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG A SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR SITS BACK JUST TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD
END SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A
PRETTY NICE DAY FROM MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE HELP OF SUBTLE
INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE HRRR
MODEL...AMONG OTHER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS RAINFALL INTO FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK JUST BEFORE SUNSET...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE THIS. SPC DOES
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE
REMAINING ACROSS AREAS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. BEST SHEAR IS
STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THERE WILL BE MARGINAL
SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF NYS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE JUST YET...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NYS. THAT SAID...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING
TWO PLUS INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CARRY OVER
INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS OF LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND TIMING ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

A POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ESE AND REACH THE LOWER
LAKES BY 12Z MON. STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL PASS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 70+ KNOT JET OVER QUEBEC AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80+ KNOT
JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS THROUGH THE
LAKES A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER PA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION MAY MODULATE THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW...
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A NOTABLE AXIS OF STRONG STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE NAM IS BY FAR STRONGEST...DUE TO ITS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION AND POTENTIALLY SOME GRIDSCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS ALLOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NAM...WITH THE 00Z RUN PLACING THIS
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
VARIOUS RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE PLACEMENT TO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS COME IN DEEPER AND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NY.

PWAT WILL RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY ARE
VERY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER AND MAY BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF TURNING A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN NY...THE GENESEE
VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS
GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST FORCING. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY RESPONDING CREEKS AS WELL IF BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REACHES 2 INCHES.

FOLLOWING THE SOAKING RAIN THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING AXIS OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY COOL FOR MID SUMMER...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL
END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...RESULTING IN PATCHY MVFR CIGS...BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TOWARD AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING
EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD
POSSIBLY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. IMPROVEMENT MAY SEEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME MODEST
CHOP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ON
MONDAY MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM






000
FXUS61 KBUF 271435
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1035 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS FROM
EASTERN MICHIGAN TO NEW YORK STATE. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
WILL LAST INTO MONDAY BEFORE A COOLER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME
TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE...WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG A SUBTLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR SITS BACK JUST TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD
END SHOWERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A
PRETTY NICE DAY FROM MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE HELP OF SUBTLE
INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT. THIS IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE HRRR
MODEL...AMONG OTHER GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS RAINFALL INTO FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK JUST BEFORE SUNSET...WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE THIS. SPC DOES
HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE
REMAINING ACROSS AREAS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. BEST SHEAR IS
STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THERE WILL BE MARGINAL
SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF NYS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE JUST YET...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IT WILL
BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS WESTERN NYS. THAT SAID...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING
TWO PLUS INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CARRY OVER
INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS OF LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND TIMING ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

A POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ESE AND REACH THE LOWER
LAKES BY 12Z MON. STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL PASS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 70+ KNOT JET OVER QUEBEC AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80+ KNOT
JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS THROUGH THE
LAKES A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER PA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION MAY MODULATE THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW...
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A NOTABLE AXIS OF STRONG STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE NAM IS BY FAR STRONGEST...DUE TO ITS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION AND POTENTIALLY SOME GRIDSCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS ALLOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NAM...WITH THE 00Z RUN PLACING THIS
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
VARIOUS RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE PLACEMENT TO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS COME IN DEEPER AND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NY.

PWAT WILL RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY ARE
VERY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER AND MAY BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF TURNING A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN NY...THE GENESEE
VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS
GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST FORCING. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY RESPONDING CREEKS AS WELL IF BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REACHES 2 INCHES.

FOLLOWING THE SOAKING RAIN THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING AXIS OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY COOL FOR MID SUMMER...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL
END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...RESULTING IN PATCHY MVFR CIGS...BUT THESE SHOULD LIFT AND
SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT TOWARD AND TRACK SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING STEADY AND SOMETIMES HEAVY RAINFALL TO
THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CIGS/VSBY TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING FROM SW-NE AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE
STRENGTHENING LOW WILL SET UP A NE FLOW...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING
EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD
POSSIBLY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. IMPROVEMENT MAY SEEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS TODAY...WITH SOME MODEST
CHOP ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF BOTH LAKES...BUT WAVES SHOULD
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ON
MONDAY MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...APFFEL/JM
MARINE...APFFEL/JM





000
FXUS61 KBUF 271215
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
815 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF TODAY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE LATE SUNDAY...LASTING RIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER
PATTERN WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY SHOWING THE LAST OF THE STEADY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NOW EXITING EAST ACROSS LEWIS COUNTY ALONG WITH THE
SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE
SUNDAY OVERALL AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND
WITH THE HELP OF SUBTLE INDUCED RIDGING ALOFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT THERE AS
WELL.  LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS
WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS AREAS TOWARD
THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. BEST SHEAR IS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS THERE WILL BE MARGINAL SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF NYS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE JUST YET...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN NYS. THAT SAID...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING TWO PLUS
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CARRY OVER
INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS OF LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND TIMING ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

A POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ESE AND REACH THE LOWER
LAKES BY 12Z MON. STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL PASS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 70+ KNOT JET OVER QUEBEC AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80+ KNOT
JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS THROUGH THE
LAKES A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER PA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION MAY MODULATE THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW...
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A NOTABLE AXIS OF STRONG STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE NAM IS BY FAR STRONGEST...DUE TO ITS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION AND POTENTIALLY SOME GRIDSCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS ALLOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NAM...WITH THE 00Z RUN PLACING THIS
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
VARIOUS RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE PLACEMENT TO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS COME IN DEEPER AND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NY.

PWAT WILL RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY ARE
VERY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER AND MAY BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF TURNING A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN NY...THE GENESEE
VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS
GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST FORCING. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY RESPONDING CREEKS AS WELL IF BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REACHES 2 INCHES.

FOLLOWING THE SOAKING RAIN THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING AXIS OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY COOL FOR MID SUMMER...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL
END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 12Z SCATTERED MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY
PRODUCING SOME RESIDUAL MAINLY MVFR/ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. EXPECT PERIODIC MVFR/IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WITH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS
WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY FROM VERY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. IMPROVEMENT MAY SEEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20KT RANGE OVER EASTERN LAKE ERIE
THROUGH MID MORNING...BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 10-15KT RANGE
BY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP WAVES JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...TOPPING OUT JUST OVER 3 FEET. ONLY RESIDUAL
LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO THIS MORNING. BEYOND THIS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE
ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ON
MONDAY MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 270920
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS AREAS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD. AFTER THESE
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE EAST MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR THE
BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY...LASTING RIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE SUNDAY OVERALL AS WE
WILL IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND SUBTLE INDUCED RIDGING
ALOFT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS
WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS AREAS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. BEST
SHEAR IS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES
AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF NYS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE JUST YET...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN NYS. THAT SAID...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING TWO PLUS
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CARRY OVER
INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS OF LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND TIMING ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

A POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ESE AND REACH THE LOWER
LAKES BY 12Z MON. STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL PASS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 70+ KNOT JET OVER QUEBEC AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80+ KNOT
JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS THROUGH THE
LAKES A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER PA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION MAY MODULATE THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW...
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A NOTABLE AXIS OF STRONG STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE NAM IS BY FAR STRONGEST...DUE TO ITS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION AND POTENTIALLY SOME GRIDSCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS ALLOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NAM...WITH THE 00Z RUN PLACING THIS
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
VARIOUS RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE PLACEMENT TO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS COME IN DEEPER AND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NY.

PWAT WILL RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY ARE
VERY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER AND MAY BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF TURNING A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN NY...THE GENESEE
VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS
GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST FORCING. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY RESPONDING CREEKS AS WELL IF BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REACHES 2 INCHES.

FOLLOWING THE SOAKING RAIN THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING AXIS OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY COOL FOR MID SUMMER...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL
END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 09Z SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN NY PRODUCING SOME RESIDUAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT
PERIODIC IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z BEFORE
A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY FROM VERY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. IMPROVEMENT MAY SEEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREA OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING...TAKING ANY LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS WITH IT. BEYOND THIS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ON
MONDAY MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM









000
FXUS61 KBUF 270920
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
520 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY
ACROSS AREAS FROM THE FINGER LAKES REGION EASTWARD. AFTER THESE
SHOWERS EXIT TO THE EAST MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR THE
BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY...LASTING RIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MUCH COOLER PATTERN WILL THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY SHOWING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A PRETTY NICE SUNDAY OVERALL AS WE
WILL IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...AND SUBTLE INDUCED RIDGING
ALOFT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS
WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION.
HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS AREAS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA LINE. BEST
SHEAR IS STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THERE WILL BE
MARGINAL SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES
AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS A
COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF NYS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND FLOODING. NOT EXACTLY SURE WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL BE JUST YET...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN NYS. THAT SAID...HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING TWO PLUS
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE MILD SIDE FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ONGOING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AND CARRY OVER
INTO MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FINER
DETAILS OF LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LOCATIONS...AND TIMING ARE STILL
SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WHICH HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.

A POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING
INTO WISCONSIN THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE ESE AND REACH THE LOWER
LAKES BY 12Z MON. STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WILL PASS
OVER THE LOWER LAKES MONDAY MORNING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A 70+ KNOT JET OVER QUEBEC AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80+ KNOT
JET OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COMBINING TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. AS THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIGS THROUGH THE
LAKES A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER PA.
THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN PA MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION MAY MODULATE THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW...
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A NOTABLE AXIS OF STRONG STRETCHING
DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE NAM IS BY FAR STRONGEST...DUE TO ITS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION AND POTENTIALLY SOME GRIDSCALE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. THIS ALLOWS AN IMPRESSIVE NARROW BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NAM...WITH THE 00Z RUN PLACING THIS
BAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE NAM HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT
VARIOUS RUNS HAVE SHIFTED THE PLACEMENT TO DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. THE
NEW 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION HAS COME IN DEEPER AND WETTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NY.

PWAT WILL RUN AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR MID SUMMER...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICS COMING INTO PLAY ARE
VERY STRONG FOR MID SUMMER AND MAY BE MORE THAN CAPABLE OF TURNING A
PWAT OF 1.5 INCHES INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE
WILL HOIST A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN NY...THE GENESEE
VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN/NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IS
GIVEN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST FORCING. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR GENERAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS AND
POSSIBLY SOME OF THE MORE RAPIDLY RESPONDING CREEKS AS WELL IF BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL REACHES 2 INCHES.

FOLLOWING THE SOAKING RAIN THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...THE SURFACE
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING AXIS OF DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST...WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN MUCH
OF THE DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY COOL FOR MID SUMMER...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY EVENING WILL
END. THERE MAY BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AT FIRST BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW...BUT THEN SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUD
COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE SHORT
FETCH AND LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING.

ON TUESDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE NEXT LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND UPPER LAKES TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED ASCENT OVER THE LOWER
LAKES. COLD AIR ALOFT AND WEAK LAKE AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE
ZONES MAY SUPPORT A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND FROM THE LAKESHORES. IT WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE VERY LOW 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND MID 60S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DIURNAL SHOWERS SHOULD END DURING THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WESTERN NY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. A
CYCLONIC SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFYING AND RETREATING
INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
ALLOW A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS TO
CROSS THE REGION. EACH ONE OF THESE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
WELL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COOL AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
AROUND 70 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY RELAX ITS GRIP BY FRIDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THIS SHOULD FINALLY
BRING A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MOVING BACK CLOSER
TO AVERAGE. THE SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BUT A
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY FORCE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO OUR REGION WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 09Z SCATTERED IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER IS STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN NY PRODUCING SOME RESIDUAL IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECT
PERIODIC IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z BEFORE
A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN
NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY FROM VERY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. IMPROVEMENT MAY SEEN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREA OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST THIS MORNING...TAKING ANY LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS WITH IT. BEYOND THIS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW ON
MONDAY MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>004-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270553
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ONE TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE OTHER MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY INDUCING A TEMPORARY AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR NOW. EXPECT AS THE DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL RESERVE THE LIKELY POPS TO
THE EAST WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES...WHILE LEAVING JUST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
EXPECT THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGELY BE EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS BEHIND ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 05Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING
THE KJHW TERMINAL. THIS REGION IS BEING IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF AN EASTWARD MOVING AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY BRING A BRIEF
UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 270553
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
153 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ONE TO
THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE OTHER MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS MOST LIKELY INDUCING A TEMPORARY AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR NOW. EXPECT AS THE DISTURBANCE TO
THE SOUTHEAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL RESERVE THE LIKELY POPS TO
THE EAST WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES...WHILE LEAVING JUST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
EXPECT THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGELY BE EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS BEHIND ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 05Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING
THE KJHW TERMINAL. THIS REGION IS BEING IMPACTED BY THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF AN EASTWARD MOVING AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR/IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY BRING A BRIEF
UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JM/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...JM/THOMAS
MARINE...JM/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS ARE PRETTY QUIET AT THIS HOUR...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS SLOWLY PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL RESERVE THE LIKELY POPS TO
THE EAST WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES...WHILE LEAVING JUST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
EXPECT THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGELY BE EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS BEHIND ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY
WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS CROSSING THE SE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER
TO IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT
OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 270236
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1036 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
REGIONAL RADARS ARE PRETTY QUIET AT THIS HOUR...WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS SLOWLY PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION.
EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE STRETCHES FROM GEORGIAN BAY TO
WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. WILL RESERVE THE LIKELY POPS TO
THE EAST WHERE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES...WHILE LEAVING JUST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT
EXPECT THE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LARGELY BE EAST
OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NYS BEHIND ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY
WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS CROSSING THE SE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER
TO IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT
OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270014
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
814 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN BATCH OF WEAK SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
THUS FAR NOT PRODUCED ANY LIGHTNING...AND WITH WEAKENING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS REACH THE EASTERN SHORE...AND
THEN INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE IS NOW TRIGGERING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN PA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE COMPLEX IN ITS CURRENT STATE
LIKELY TO MISS OUR CWA. HOWEVER THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT EFFECTS THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH
WILL HAVE ON THIS THETA-E PLUME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIKELY
POPS LATER TONIGHT IN RESPECT TO THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD BE THAT THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH NEW STORMS NOT DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWARD
SIDE OF THE COMPLEX.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY
WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS CROSSING THE SE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER
TO IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT
OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270014
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
814 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A QUIETER PERIOD WILL THEN ENSUE
FOR THE BETTER PART OF SUNDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED STORMS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROKEN BATCH OF WEAK SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
THUS FAR NOT PRODUCED ANY LIGHTNING...AND WITH WEAKENING DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...THE LACK OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS REACH THE EASTERN SHORE...AND
THEN INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AT 850 HPA AND 700 HPA A SHORTWAVE IS NOW TRIGGERING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN PA. THIS ACTIVITY
IS DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE COMPLEX IN ITS CURRENT STATE
LIKELY TO MISS OUR CWA. HOWEVER THIS SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT EFFECTS THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH
WILL HAVE ON THIS THETA-E PLUME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LIKELY
POPS LATER TONIGHT IN RESPECT TO THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION. IT COULD BE THAT THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH NEW STORMS NOT DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWARD
SIDE OF THE COMPLEX.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE LOW TO MID 60S.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
HIGHER UP A 100 KNOT JET AT 250 HPA WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE
CORN BELT STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS JET STRUCTURE WILL
PLACE THE FAVORABLE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT QUAD OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. BOTH AND SHORTWAVE AND JET STRUCTURE WILL BE PROVIDING
PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEFORMATION
ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING RAIN POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70. THESE READINGS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF MID SEPTEMBER GIVING THE
FALLISH FEEL TO THE AIR. HOWEVER ABOUT HALF OF JULY`S IN RECENT
DECADES FOR BOTH BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER HAVE AT LEAST ONE DAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S...SO THIS COOL COUPLE OF DAYS ARE NOT ANYTHING
EXTREME.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE
COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7
TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS
CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
WILL INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. INITIALLY
WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS CROSSING THE SE LAKE ONTARIO REGION...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
VFR AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...FALLING VSBYS IN RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER
TO IFR BRIEFLY AT ANY AIRFIELD.

BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE SOME
FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FOR THE
KJHW TERMINAL. ELSEWHERE PERIODIC MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z.

SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY DRY ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS WITH NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN NUMBERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT TO BE SEEN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY
BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN BOTH WIND SPEED AND WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND WAVES 1 FOOT
OR LESS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE
EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...JM/THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 261949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN FOLLOWING A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL
BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH THIS LOW ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW...REACHING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE.

THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HINGE ON SUBTLE CONVECTIVE
WAVES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT IN
TIME. THIS SAID...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON
THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM...WITH QPF FORECASTS APPEARING
REASONABLE BUT PERHAPS A BIT TOO SLOW. OUR FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
FASTER OF THIS GUIDANCE (NAM/HRRR) WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH
UPSTREAM TRENDS AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
TIME...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT STILL LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE MORE SPOTTY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO EXIT TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS AND KEEP THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA DRY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WITH
THE EXTENT DEPENDENT ON MUCH CLEARING THERE IS BEHIND THE SHOWERS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOWN TOWARD
THE PA STATE LINE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN ONLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. AFTER THIS...EXPECT
DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE WORST
CONDITIONS AT JHW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...WHILE ELSEWHERE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 261949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN FOLLOWING A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL
BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WITH THIS LOW ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW...REACHING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE.

THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HINGE ON SUBTLE CONVECTIVE
WAVES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT IN
TIME. THIS SAID...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON
THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM...WITH QPF FORECASTS APPEARING
REASONABLE BUT PERHAPS A BIT TOO SLOW. OUR FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE
FASTER OF THIS GUIDANCE (NAM/HRRR) WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH
UPSTREAM TRENDS AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
TIME...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT STILL LAST LONG
ENOUGH TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE MORE SPOTTY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS A SECONDARY WAVE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO EXIT TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS AND KEEP THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA DRY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS WITH
THE EXTENT DEPENDENT ON MUCH CLEARING THERE IS BEHIND THE SHOWERS.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY WILL TURN OUT TO BE DRY. MODEL
CONSENSUS FORECASTS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TO BE EXITING EAST MONDAY
MORNING...WITH SUBTLE RIDGING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS LIKELY TO
DRY THINGS OUT. LATER IN THE DAY..MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS
APPROACH...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE VAST MAJORITY OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT REACH WESTERN NEW YORK UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...BUT THIS TOO IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LAKESHORES AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOWN TOWARD
THE PA STATE LINE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN ONLY VFR CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. AFTER THIS...EXPECT
DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT THE WORST
CONDITIONS AT JHW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...WHILE ELSEWHERE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 261810
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
210 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN FOLLOWING A BRIEF
BREAK IN THE ACTION SUNDAY MORNING...A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL
BRING A ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON THERE IS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE UPPER LAKES WITH THIS LOW ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ALOFT. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM THIS LOW...REACHING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO
AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE.

THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD WILL HINGE ON SUBTLE CONVECTIVE
WAVES...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST ESPECIALLY FURTHER OUT IN
TIME. THIS SAID...MOST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE PICKS UP ON
THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM...WITH QPF FORECASTS APPEARING
REASONABLE BUT PERHAPS A BIT TOO SLOW. OUR FORECAST WILL FOLLOW
THE FASTER OF THIS GUIDANCE (NAM/HRRR) WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH
UPSTREAM TRENDS AT THIS TIME. THIS WOULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME...TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
THIS SHOULD WEAKEN BUT STILL LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION IN THE 9 PM TO 3 AM TIMEFRAME. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BE MORE SPOTTY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT TO EXPAND
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WHERE THERE STILL
SHOULD BE SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE. EXPECT ALL OF THIS TO EXIT TO
THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHOULD PROMOTE SOME DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS AND KEEP THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA DRY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL DROP INTO THE 60S
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS WITH THE EXTENT DEPENDENT ON MUCH CLEARING THERE IS
BEHIND THE SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOWN TOWARD
THE PA STATE LINE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM W-E
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THESE SHOULD GENERALLY RESULT IN ONLY VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. AFTER
THIS...EXPECT DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE WORST CONDITIONS AT JHW...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY...WHILE ELSEWHERE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
LOW MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT LARGELY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME
CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH LAKES...BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL






000
FXUS61 KBUF 261429
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT TIMES BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT ALOFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURE TO SUPPORT ANY ASCENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL CLOUD DECK. GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN STRONGER CHANNELLED FLOW COMING UP THE LAKE PLAIN AND
WEAKER...SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INLAND. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY...WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO
WESTERN NY...WITH WARM FRONTAL CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND
+12C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL IMPROVE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMA WITH DPVA
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAXIMIZE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

CLOUD COVER AND MIXING ALONG WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOWN TOWARD
THE PA STATE LINE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT ART...BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS BELOW
VFR.

BY LATE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BEHIND THE THICKER WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FORM FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN SLOWLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE AT FIRST. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM
MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT BY IN LARGE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBY.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS...MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 261429
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT TIMES BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM FRONT ALOFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES NEAR AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THIS SUBTLE FEATURE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURE TO SUPPORT ANY ASCENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SLOWLY
DESTABILIZE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH SOME
SUNSHINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL CLOUD DECK. GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN STRONGER CHANNELLED FLOW COMING UP THE LAKE PLAIN AND
WEAKER...SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INLAND. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY...WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO
WESTERN NY...WITH WARM FRONTAL CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE 12Z BUFFALO SOUNDING IS LINE WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND
+12C. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL IMPROVE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMA WITH DPVA
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAXIMIZE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

CLOUD COVER AND MIXING ALONG WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOWN TOWARD
THE PA STATE LINE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
POSSIBLY IMPACT ART...BUT ARE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS BELOW
VFR.

BY LATE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BEHIND THE THICKER WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FORM FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN SLOWLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE AT FIRST. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM
MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT BY IN LARGE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBY.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS...MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 261144
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
744 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT TIMES BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH A MORE NOTABLE AREA OF
SHOWERS ENTERING WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO JUST EAST OF TORONTO. THESE
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PRODUCE A
FEW SPRINKLES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. IF THE BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER LAKE
ONTARIO HOLDS TOGETHER IT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING NEAR ROCHESTER DURING THE MID
TO LATE MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON WHAT REMAINS OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE TO SUPPORT ANY ASCENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL CLOUD DECK. GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN STRONGER CHANNELLED FLOW COMING UP THE LAKE PLAIN AND
WEAKER...SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INLAND. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY...WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO
WESTERN NY...WITH WARM FRONTAL CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL IMPROVE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMA WITH DPVA
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAXIMIZE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

CLOUD COVER AND MIXING ALONG WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DOWN TOWARD
THE PA STATE LINE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY
APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL
MONITORED CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS MORNING
AND THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS WESTERN NY THIS
MORNING...WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATER THIS
MORNING EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT...BUT CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN
VFR.

BY LATE AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BEHIND THE THICKER WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FORM FIRST ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN SLOWLY
EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE AT FIRST. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR STORM
MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT BY IN LARGE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME. THE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS MAY PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBY.

BEHIND THIS AREA OF SHOWERS...MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS AS STRATUS DEVELOPS. THIS MAY
PRODUCE SOME MVFR ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 260845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND
OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT TIMES BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME WILL BE
RAIN FREE. ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AFTER A WARM AND MUGGY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS
EXITING THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH VERY LITTLE AT ALL NOTED
UPSTREAM. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THETA-E
ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR SCATTERED SPRINKLES IN A FEW SPOTS...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD STAY RAIN FREE.

BY THIS AFTERNOON WHAT REMAINS OF THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE TO SUPPORT ANY ASCENT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
SLOWLY DESTABILIZE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL CLOUD DECK. GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TYPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...ALONG THE BOUNDARY
BETWEEN STRONGER CHANNELLED FLOW COMING UP THE LAKE PLAIN AND
WEAKER...SLIGHTLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INLAND. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

ELSEWHERE IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY...WITH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO SOME
SUNSHINE FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO
WESTERN NY...WITH WARM FRONTAL CLOUD COVER LINGERING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. 850MB TEMPS OF AROUND +12C WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID TO UPPER
70S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT WILL IMPROVE AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMA WITH DPVA
PROVIDING A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT.
FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD MAXIMIZE EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS THERE...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

CLOUD COVER AND MIXING ALONG WITH A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY
AIRMASS WILL KEEP LOWS ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND LOWER 60S IN THE COOLER SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY A WEAK AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. WITH A LACK OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WOULD EXPECT NO MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...SPC CURRENTLY HAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A LESSER
RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...HOWEVER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY IN THE
25-30KT RANGE WILL BE A REAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP. COUPLE THIS WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DAY APPEARS THAT
IT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. AS ALWAYS THIS SITUATION WILL MONITORED
CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST
SUMMER-LIKE DAY FOR A WHILE TEMPERATURE WISE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE MARKED BY POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALLING ACROSS SOME PORTION OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE
TRANSITION TO A MUCH COOLER PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL LESSEN AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AS MORE
STABLE AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN PA. AT THE SAME
TIME A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING PLENTY OF LIFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. A
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL ALSO SET UP JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
FALL...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NEW YORK STATE/NORTHERN PA. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WELL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION. TEMPERATURE WISE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MONDAY COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER
MUCH ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

AFTER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY NIGHT THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. THE BIG
CHANGE HERE WILL BE IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. THE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS WILL BE REALIZED WHEN YOU WAKE UP TUESDAY MORNING TO LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE MID
50S NEAR THE LAKE SHORES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST TO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT...THEN TO
THE REST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT...BUT CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BEHIND THE THICKER
WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FORM FIRST ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN
SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE AT FIRST. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT BY IN LARGE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME CHOPPY WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF BOTH
LAKES...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW MAY
BRING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 260535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION...PAVING THE WAY FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE WEE
HOURS OF THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT ALOFT.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY CROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE MILDER AS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AS WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO ADVECT
NORTHWARDS...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. LOOK
FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH READINGS CRACKING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A POTENTIAL TRIGGER
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE ELECTED TO
SCALE BACK POPS TO CHANCE/SCATTERED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING SATURDAY NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE CARRIED NORTHWARD AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NEAR LAKE HURON TO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIKELIEST AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTLE WARM BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE
PUSHING FROM SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
CANADA. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD POPS HERE TO LOW
LIKELY...WITH CHANCE POPS REMAINING TOWARDS THE STATE LINE. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT TO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND
GENESEE VALLEY.

ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TIMING THE ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE HARD AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE
MORNING...AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...AFTERNOON SUN IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF CLEARING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MAY CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AS MOISTURE RETURNS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPWARD LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WILL CREATE ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE LINE MEETING A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANAD. A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALONG WITH THE BETTER KINEMATICS WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE
GREATEST AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LESSER...BUT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

ON MONDAY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS A
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THOUGH SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FALL TO JUST
BELOW 10C...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MONDAY NIGHT SOME CLEARING WILL BRING A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND THE INTERIOR NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST TO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT...THEN TO
THE REST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT...BUT CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BEHIND THE THICKER
WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FORM FIRST ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN
SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE AT FIRST. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT BY IN LARGE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE WEAKENING THIS EVENING AS LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS END
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/WOOD
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD






000
FXUS61 KBUF 260535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST COAST AND A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION...PAVING THE WAY FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY DURING THE WEE
HOURS OF THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT ALOFT.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY CROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE MILDER AS COMPARED TO
LAST NIGHT AS WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO ADVECT
NORTHWARDS...ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST. LOOK
FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE LAKES TO
THE LOWER 50S IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY.

THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 70S...WITH READINGS CRACKING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN THE
GENESEE VALLEY. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A POTENTIAL TRIGGER
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IT APPEARS THAT THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO.
GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...HAVE ELECTED TO
SCALE BACK POPS TO CHANCE/SCATTERED FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING SATURDAY NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL BE CARRIED NORTHWARD AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NEAR LAKE HURON TO FAR SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITHIN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIKELIEST AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTLE WARM BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE
PUSHING FROM SOUTH OF THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
CANADA. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT WILL HOLD POPS HERE TO LOW
LIKELY...WITH CHANCE POPS REMAINING TOWARDS THE STATE LINE. THIS
WARM FRONT WILL BRING A MILD NIGHT TO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
RANGING THROUGH THE 60S...WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND
GENESEE VALLEY.

ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT
WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. TIMING THE ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE HARD AS THE FRONT SLIDES THROUGH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE
MORNING...AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID...AFTERNOON SUN IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF CLEARING BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY MAY CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AS MOISTURE RETURNS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPWARD LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
WILL CREATE ASCENT THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. AT THE SURFACE A
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE STATE LINE MEETING A NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANAD. A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IN THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALONG WITH THE BETTER KINEMATICS WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE
GREATEST AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A LESSER...BUT STILL
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.

ON MONDAY THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EASTWARD AS A
SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH
THE DAY...AND THOUGH SOME SUNSHINE MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY
IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA FALL TO JUST
BELOW 10C...WHICH WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MONDAY NIGHT SOME CLEARING WILL BRING A
CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...AND UPPER 40S ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND THE INTERIOR NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AN ANOMALOUSLY -3 STANDARD DEVIATION
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN
US...WITH A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR COOL AUTUMN LIKE FEEL TO THE AIR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE COOLEST DAY LIKELY TUESDAY WHERE MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. THE COOL 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 7 TO 8C ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT RAIN...AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR WATER SPOUTS ON THE LAKES.

SOME WARMING MID TO END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH HIGHS WILL ONLY
MODERATE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...STILL SOME 5 DEGREES OR MORE
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AND SUNSHINE WILL
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THICKENING AND GRADUALLY
LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST TO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT...THEN TO
THE REST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES MAY
ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT...BUT CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR.

BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES BEHIND THE THICKER
WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FORM FIRST ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THEN
SLOWLY EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER SPARSE AT FIRST. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
STORM MAY CONTAIN LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...BUT BY IN LARGE
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE TIME.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR MUCH OF THE TIME WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
AT TIMES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR.
MONDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
IMPROVEMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE WEAKENING THIS EVENING AS LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS END
WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE WILL RETURN AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS/WOOD
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS/WOOD
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS/WOOD







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