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000
FXUS61 KBUF 261607
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS A NOR`EASTER
STILL BRINGS ITS IMPACT LARGELY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE...WHILE
JUST BRUSHING BY OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 261607
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1107 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS A NOR`EASTER
STILL BRINGS ITS IMPACT LARGELY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE...WHILE
JUST BRUSHING BY OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF THE TIME OVER
THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PUSHES OF COLDER AIR AT
TIMES AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS AMPLIFY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...BUT
THESE COLD PERIODS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...ONLY LASTING FOR A FEW DAYS
AT A TIME...AND WILL BE OUTNUMBERED BY MILD DAYS.

LOOKING AT THE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN...A POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION /NAO/ WILL PERSIST INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER
BASED ON THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC IN SUCH A PATTERN WILL PREVENT ANY COLD FROM LOCKING
IN OVER THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE UNITED STATES. THE PACIFIC
NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN /PNA/ WILL REMAIN NEGATIVE THROUGH THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF DECEMBER...BEFORE TRENDING POSITIVE BASED ON GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS TOO WILL PREVENT COLD FROM LOCKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR MORE THAN A FEW DAYS AT A TIME.

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /MJO/ MAY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
DRIVING PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH MID DECEMBER. ANALYSIS OVER THE PAST
WEEK HAS SHOWN A MODERATELY STRONG MJO EVENT DEVELOPING OVER THE
INDIAN OCEAN. A GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE
PLOT SHOWS THIS MJO ORBITING THROUGH PHASE 4 AND 5 DURING THE FIRST
WEEK IN DECEMBER AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. A LOOK AT COMPOSITE CHARTS OF PAST EVENTS FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED
STATES DURING PHASE 4 THROUGH 6 OF THE MJO.

EVENTUALLY AS WE GET INTO THE SECOND WEEK IN DECEMBER MJO CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ORBIT THROUGH THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
WESTERN HEMISPHERE. IF THE MJO CONVECTION PERSISTS ON ITS EASTWARD
JOURNEY AND REACHES PHASE 7 OF THE WHEELER PHASE/SPACE PLOT...IT
WOULD FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MJO
ACCOMPLISHES THIS AS SUB-TROPICAL CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE PATTERN
OVER THE PACIFIC...FORCING AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTWARD EXTENSION
OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WHICH IN TURN FORCES DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. BASED ON THE FORECAST TIMING OF
THE MJO EPISODE THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR BY WEEK 2 OR 3 OF
DECEMBER AND FEED BACK INTO MORE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING AND MORE
LONG LASTING COLD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS
CLIMATE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 261438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS A NOR`EASTER
STILL BRINGS ITS IMPACT LARGELY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE...WHILE
JUST BRUSHING BY OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 261438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS A NOR`EASTER
STILL BRINGS ITS IMPACT LARGELY ALONG THE EAST COASTLINE...WHILE
JUST BRUSHING BY OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL...

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...WHICH ENDED THE
SNOW MELT RUN OFF. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 261122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
622 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED WITH
ONLY ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE STILL IN FLOOD. EVEN THIS
CREEK HAS CRESTED HOWEVER AND IS CURRENTLY ON IT`S WAY DOWN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY. IT WORTH
NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE
AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ACTION STAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 261122
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
622 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON ITS WESTERN SIDE...A STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL
WINDS AND WAVES TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED WITH
ONLY ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE STILL IN FLOOD. EVEN THIS
CREEK HAS CRESTED HOWEVER AND IS CURRENTLY ON IT`S WAY DOWN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY. IT WORTH
NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE
AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ACTION STAGE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 260938
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAVING ENDED DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DUE TO INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE/SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE PULLED ALL
POPS FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING HIGHER WAVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES UP UNTIL THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED WITH
ONLY ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE STILL IN FLOOD. EVEN THIS
CREEK HAS CRESTED HOWEVER AND IS CURRENTLY ON IT`S WAY DOWN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY. IT WORTH
NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE
AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ACTION STAGE.


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 260938
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
438 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAVING ENDED DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DUE TO INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE/SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE PULLED ALL
POPS FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE AXIS OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE REGION.
CYCLONIC WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT ABUNDANT LAKE-ENHANCED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS THERE WILL BE SOME VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WITHIN THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH A DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
FOR MOST AREAS.

THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS WE
MOVE INTO THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK...RAISING
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO AROUND 10KFT ON LAKE ERIE FOR A TIME ON
THURSDAY EVENING AND GENERATING ENOUGH OF A LAKE RESPONSE TO BRING 1
TO 3 INCHES TO THE VICINITY OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE AS WELL. AS
EXPECTED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL OVERHEAD...READINGS
WILL RUN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WE SHOULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE FLOW BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER INLAND FROM THE LAKES BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN ONCE
AGAIN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE DAY AS BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES HOWEVER TO KEEP HIGHS LIMITED
TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE FORMERLY HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN GIVING WAY TO BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION. THIS WILL
SERVE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
SATURDAY AND INTO THE 50S SUNDAY AS THE JET STREAM LIFTS NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER THIS WARMUP WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE HOWEVER AS THE REGION WILL BE ENSCONCED IN A
ZONE OF BROAD...BUT DIFFUSE...ISENTROPIC UPLIFT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND.

WE MAY SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE WARM AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THERE WILL REMAIN A LOW
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT. POPS RAMP UP SOMEWHAT BY LATER IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER SWINGING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN CANADA
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND FOCUSES ASCENT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SWING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
RETURN FOR MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH 20S MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE SOME BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING HIGHER WAVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES UP UNTIL THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOODING THREAT FOR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS LARGELY ENDED WITH
ONLY ELLICOTT CREEK NEAR WILLIAMSVILLE STILL IN FLOOD. EVEN THIS
CREEK HAS CRESTED HOWEVER AND IS CURRENTLY ON IT`S WAY DOWN. IT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE DURING THE DAY TODAY. IT WORTH
NOTING THAT SOME OF THE SLOWER RESPONDING CREEKS ACROSS THE
AREA...NAMELY TONAWANDA CREEK IN NORTHERN ERIE COUNTRY WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ACTION STAGE.


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
HYDROLOGY...WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 260835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAVING ENDED DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DUE TO INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE/SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE PULLED ALL
POPS FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
REDEVELOP LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A
1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A
WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3
INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING HIGHER WAVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES UP UNTIL THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 260835
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
335 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT
WHILE BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH
COUNTRY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAVING ENDED DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES DUE TO INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE/SHEARED LOW LEVEL FLOW...HAVE PULLED ALL
POPS FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS...AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER.

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A FULL-FLEDGED NOR`EASTER WHILE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS EVENING...THEN LIFTING
OUT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRE-THANKSGIVING
SNOWSTORM EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...ON THIS
TRACK IT WILL ONLY MANAGE TO BRUSH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK WITH MUCH LIGHTER SNOWFALL. THE BULK OF THIS WILL PRIMARILY
AFFECT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE A GENERAL 1-2" OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH UP TO 3" OR SO POSSIBLE ACROSS LEWIS
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...WHERE
ANY RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT.

AS FOR TEMPS...CLOUDY SKIES AND A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP KEEP TODAY`S HIGHS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID 30S...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
REDEVELOP LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A
1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A
WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3
INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SNOWSTORM TO NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW YORK...IT WILL ONLY
BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH LIGHTER SNOW TO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW AND ANY
ATTENDANT IFR RESTRICTIONS REMAINING CONFINED TO INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY. FURTHER WEST EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SNOW AT THE TAF SITES...WITH CIGS
RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS AND IFR/MVFR BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
IN SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/MVFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LINGERING HIGHER WAVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE LEFT THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES UP UNTIL THAT TIME.

THROUGH THE COURSE OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...FOR WHICH ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT AS OUTLINED BELOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN
CROSS THE LOWER LAKES REGION BETWEEN LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND ATTENDANT HIGHER WAVES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
         THURSDAY FOR LOZ043-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 260429
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1129 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO
QUEBEC. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE ON THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING IS
-8C...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW AN INVERSION WHICH IS JUST
ABOVE THIS. THIS INVERSION CAPS THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL...BUT HAS BEEN AMPLE FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALOFT...WITH IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND -14C WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. SO FAR WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A
FEW AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SLICK
SPOTS FROM EARLIER DRIZZLE OR SNOW. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS
IS...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH AS
925MB WINDS DROP OFF WHICH WILL LOWER THE TREAT FOR UPSLOPING.
OTHERWISE...LAKE MOISTURE HAS ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WITH MOST
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF A FEW BREAKS LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWARD.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE...WITH
LOWER (MVFR) CIGS AT JHW WHERE THERE IS A STRONGER FLOW AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NOR`EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW
MAY CLIP OUR REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO
THE EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINOR IMPACT ON OUR TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 260429
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1129 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO
QUEBEC. THE 850MB TEMPERATURE ON THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING IS
-8C...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW AN INVERSION WHICH IS JUST
ABOVE THIS. THIS INVERSION CAPS THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL...BUT HAS BEEN AMPLE FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. MOISTURE IS LIMITED ALOFT...WITH IR
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND -14C WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD
ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. SO FAR WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE A
FEW AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SLICK
SPOTS FROM EARLIER DRIZZLE OR SNOW. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS
IS...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH AS
925MB WINDS DROP OFF WHICH WILL LOWER THE TREAT FOR UPSLOPING.
OTHERWISE...LAKE MOISTURE HAS ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WITH MOST
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE OF A FEW BREAKS LAKE
ONTARIO NORTHWARD.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LAKE MOISTURE...WITH
LOWER (MVFR) CIGS AT JHW WHERE THERE IS A STRONGER FLOW AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. A NOR`EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW
MAY CLIP OUR REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO
THE EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINOR IMPACT ON OUR TAF
SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 260244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC LATE
THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
INDIANA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING IS -8C...WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW AN INVERSION WHICH IS JUST ABOVE THIS.
THIS CAPS THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL...BUT HAS BEEN AMPLE
FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED ALOFT...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND
-14C WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. SO
FAR WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. 925MB WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE UPSLOPE LIFT AND RESULT IN
LIGHTER (OR NO) PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS...BUT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN 925MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL
LEAVE THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 02Z...BUF/IAG/ROC/ART CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY...WHILE JHW WAS IFR. JHW WILL LOWER AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT
INCREASES THERE...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 4K FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NOR`EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP OUR
REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO THE
EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 260244
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
944 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC LATE
THIS EVENING WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
INDIANA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

850MB TEMPERATURES ON THE 00Z BUF SOUNDING IS -8C...WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BELOW AN INVERSION WHICH IS JUST ABOVE THIS.
THIS CAPS THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL...BUT HAS BEEN AMPLE
FOR SOME WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
IS LIMITED ALOFT...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND
-14C WHICH IS MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. SO
FAR WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY GIVEN LIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. 925MB WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE UPSLOPE LIFT AND RESULT IN
LIGHTER (OR NO) PRECIPITATION. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS...BUT
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN 925MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP OFF. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER CLOUD TOPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL
LEAVE THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR
NOW...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 02Z...BUF/IAG/ROC/ART CIGS HAD LIFTED INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY...WHILE JHW WAS IFR. JHW WILL LOWER AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT
INCREASES THERE...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS LATE
THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER THIS...EXPECT LINGERING
CIGS AROUND 4K FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NOR`EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP OUR
REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO THE
EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 260020
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING WITH
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
HAVE DROPPED TO THE SOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALSO TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
SURFACE WINDS...BUT WITH ITS EXIT AND NIGHTFALL WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OFF BOTH LAKES A WEAK LAKE
EFFECT RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP
FROM -6C TO -9C BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL BELOW
850 HPA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CAPPING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL ALSO RESIDES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE
THIS...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND -14C AND ANY
GOOD SEEDING LIKELY TO BE A BIT BELOW THAT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN SIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL...BUT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
925MB WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
UPSLOPE LIFT AND RESULT IN LIGHTER (OR NO) PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT WHEN
WINDS ARE STILL AMPLE TO AID IN UPSLOPING. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
CLOUD TOPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...HOWEVER
IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 00Z...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LIFTING CIGS
AND ENDING SHOWERS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART. LIKEWISE...JHW WILL LOWER
AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASES THERE...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER
THIS...EXPECT LINGERING CIGS AROUND 4K FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NOR`EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP OUR
REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO THE
EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 260020
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
720 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING WITH
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHILE LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS
HAVE DROPPED TO THE SOUTH. THIS TROUGH ALSO TEMPORARILY ENHANCED
SURFACE WINDS...BUT WITH ITS EXIT AND NIGHTFALL WINDS SHOULD DROP
OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OFF BOTH LAKES A WEAK LAKE
EFFECT RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP
FROM -6C TO -9C BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL BELOW
850 HPA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CAPPING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL ALSO RESIDES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS LIMITED ABOVE
THIS...WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD TOPS AROUND -14C AND ANY
GOOD SEEDING LIKELY TO BE A BIT BELOW THAT. WITH NO SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN SIGHT...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW GROWTH. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW/GRAUPEL...BUT AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING THIS
EVENING THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE.
925MB WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
UPSLOPE LIFT AND RESULT IN LIGHTER (OR NO) PRECIPITATION. WILL
KEEP THE ADVISORY AS IS...BUT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT WHEN
WINDS ARE STILL AMPLE TO AID IN UPSLOPING. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
CLOUD TOPS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL LEAVE THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...HOWEVER
IT WILL STILL BE MONITORED.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 00Z...MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO LIFTING CIGS
AND ENDING SHOWERS AT BUF/IAG/ROC/ART. LIKEWISE...JHW WILL LOWER
AS LAKE ENHANCEMENT INCREASES THERE...WITH CIGS LOWERING TO NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER
THIS...EXPECT LINGERING CIGS AROUND 4K FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A NOR`EASTER WILL TRACK TO THE EAST...AND LIGHT SNOW MAY CLIP OUR
REGION BRIEFLY. EXPECT HEAVIER SNOW TO STAY WELL TO THE
EAST...WITH THE STORM HAVING ONLY A MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR TAF LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 252210
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
510 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LESSENING THE SNOW MELT...AND REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NOR`EASTER WILL
LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS CENTRAL
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO REFLECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FUNNELING UP LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD.

THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES A WEAK LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP FROM -6C
TO -9C BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL BELOW 850
HPA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CAPPING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
ALSO RESIDES. HOWEVER THE ZONE OF GOOD SNOW GROWTH IS FOUND HIGHER
AND WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO LIFT THIS
MOISTURE UPWARD INTO THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH ZONE (-12 TO -18C LAYER)
THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT DRIZZLE (WHICH WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF BOTH LAKES) THAT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/AND
PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE. POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT EAST OF LAKE ERIE WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD THROUGH ABOUT
-6 TO -8C...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD
THROUGH ABOUT -8 TO -10C. SINCE THE COLD...AND MOIST AIR IS A LITTLE
DEEPER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT JUST DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BAND OF WEAK LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD SUCH THAT BY TIME
WE REACH FREEZING THIS EVENING JUST SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK
SURFACES RESULTING FROM THE MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
FOR SUCH WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5PM THROUGH 6 AM
TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWER. AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND WINDS VEER TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS
CHANGE SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER THE BAND CROSSES THE KIAG/KBUF
AIRFIELDS...BUT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IT MAY CLIP THE AIRFIELD WITH A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT AS WIND
SHEER INCREASES WITH THE NEARING OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
LATER OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES FOUND ACROSS THE KROC/KART
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DUNKIRK AND BUFFALO NOS WERE REPORTING WINDS NEAR 30
KTS...SO HAVE UPDATE THE NEARSHORES TO REFLECT THIS AND TO EXTEND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY A FEW HOURS. THIS SAID...MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE DRASTICALLY DIMINISHES WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO DROP OFF MARKEDLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND
8 PM ON LAKE ERIE.

A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW ON THE LAKES...AND ALSO THE NIAGARA RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUCH THAT SCA WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 252210
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
510 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LESSENING THE SNOW MELT...AND REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NOR`EASTER WILL
LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS CENTRAL
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO REFLECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FUNNELING UP LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD.

THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES A WEAK LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP FROM -6C
TO -9C BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL BELOW 850
HPA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CAPPING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
ALSO RESIDES. HOWEVER THE ZONE OF GOOD SNOW GROWTH IS FOUND HIGHER
AND WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO LIFT THIS
MOISTURE UPWARD INTO THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH ZONE (-12 TO -18C LAYER)
THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT DRIZZLE (WHICH WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF BOTH LAKES) THAT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/AND
PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE. POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT EAST OF LAKE ERIE WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD THROUGH ABOUT
-6 TO -8C...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD
THROUGH ABOUT -8 TO -10C. SINCE THE COLD...AND MOIST AIR IS A LITTLE
DEEPER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT JUST DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BAND OF WEAK LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD SUCH THAT BY TIME
WE REACH FREEZING THIS EVENING JUST SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK
SURFACES RESULTING FROM THE MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
FOR SUCH WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5PM THROUGH 6 AM
TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWER. AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND WINDS VEER TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS
CHANGE SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER THE BAND CROSSES THE KIAG/KBUF
AIRFIELDS...BUT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IT MAY CLIP THE AIRFIELD WITH A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT AS WIND
SHEER INCREASES WITH THE NEARING OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
LATER OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES FOUND ACROSS THE KROC/KART
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...DUNKIRK AND BUFFALO NOS WERE REPORTING WINDS NEAR 30
KTS...SO HAVE UPDATE THE NEARSHORES TO REFLECT THIS AND TO EXTEND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BY A FEW HOURS. THIS SAID...MESOSCALE
MODEL GUIDANCE DRASTICALLY DIMINISHES WINDS ALOFT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH WINDS LIKELY TO DROP OFF MARKEDLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND
8 PM ON LAKE ERIE.

A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW ON THE LAKES...AND ALSO THE NIAGARA RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUCH THAT SCA WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 252044
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LESSENING THE SNOW MELT...AND REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NOR`EASTER WILL
LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS CENTRAL
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO REFLECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FUNNELING UP LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD.

THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES A WEAK LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP FROM -6C
TO -9C BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL BELOW 850
HPA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CAPPING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
ALSO RESIDES. HOWEVER THE ZONE OF GOOD SNOW GROWTH IS FOUND HIGHER
AND WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO LIFT THIS
MOISTURE UPWARD INTO THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH ZONE (-12 TO -18C LAYER)
THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT DRIZZLE (WHICH WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF BOTH LAKES) THAT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/AND
PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE. POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT EAST OF LAKE ERIE WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD THROUGH ABOUT
-6 TO -8C...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD
THROUGH ABOUT -8 TO -10C. SINCE THE COLD...AND MOIST AIR IS A LITTLE
DEEPER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT JUST DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BAND OF WEAK LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD SUCH THAT BY TIME
WE REACH FREEZING THIS EVENING JUST SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK
SURFACES RESULTING FROM THE MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
FOR SUCH WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5PM THROUGH 6 AM
TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWER. AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND WINDS VEER TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS
CHANGE SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER THE BAND CROSSES THE KIAG/KBUF
AIRFIELDS...BUT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IT MAY CLIP THE AIRFIELD WITH A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT AS WIND
SHEER INCREASES WITH THE NEARING OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
LATER OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES FOUND ACROSS THE KROC/KART
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW ON THE LAKES...AND ALSO THE NIAGARA RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUCH THAT SCA WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 252044
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LESSENING THE SNOW MELT...AND REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NOR`EASTER WILL
LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS CENTRAL
QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO REFLECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FUNNELING UP LAKE ERIE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES...AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD.

THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES A WEAK LAKE EFFECT
RESPONSE WILL BE SEEN AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA DROP FROM -6C
TO -9C BY TOMORROW MORNING. MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL BELOW 850
HPA...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE THE CAPPING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
ALSO RESIDES. HOWEVER THE ZONE OF GOOD SNOW GROWTH IS FOUND HIGHER
AND WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO LIFT THIS
MOISTURE UPWARD INTO THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH ZONE (-12 TO -18C LAYER)
THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT DRIZZLE (WHICH WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON EAST
OF BOTH LAKES) THAT WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/AND
PERHAPS EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE. POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT EAST OF LAKE ERIE WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD THROUGH ABOUT
-6 TO -8C...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WE REMAIN SATURATED UPWARD
THROUGH ABOUT -8 TO -10C. SINCE THE COLD...AND MOIST AIR IS A LITTLE
DEEPER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT JUST DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW...WHILE EAST OF LAKE ERIE THERE MAY BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BAND OF WEAK LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PUSHING SOUTHWARD SUCH THAT BY TIME
WE REACH FREEZING THIS EVENING JUST SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLICK
SURFACES RESULTING FROM THE MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.
FOR SUCH WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5PM THROUGH 6 AM
TOMORROW.

TOMORROW WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND DISRUPT ANY LAKE EFFECT BANDS
OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. A NORTHEAST WIND EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY LINGER
A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SE AND THEN SOUTHERN
SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
NOR`EASTER...A STORM WHOSE IMPACT WILL BE GREATEST TO OUR EAST.
WEDNESDAY A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ADVANCING FROM
THE CAROLINA COASTLINE NORTHEASTWARD TO OFF THE JERSEY SHORE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL
LIFT ATLANTIC MOISTURE UPWARD AND BRING SNOW WESTWARD ENOUGH SUCH
THAT THE SOUTHERN GENESEE VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE. FOR THE
JAMESTOWN...BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...WATERTOWN AREAS ONLY A DUSTING TO
COATING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS THE INLAND
SOUTHERN TIER TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORELINES.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN SHIELD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW THAT MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO PULL
EAST. COLDER AIR WILL GET PULLED DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY RIGHT WILL EFFECTIVELY RAISE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS TO ABOVE 10K FEET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO REDEVELOP
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW ALIGNS WEST NORTHWESTERLY. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING TO A 1-3/2-4 INCH ACCUMULATION.
LOW LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL A WELL ALIGNED EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT WE COULD STILL SEE A 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT MODERATING
TREND DURING THE WEEKEND. SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING MECHANISM
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS
NORTH ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. ONLY SOURCE OF
LIFT OTHER THAN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN PROVIDING SOME
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE SOME SUBTLE WEAK PERTURBATIONS WORKING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THEREFORE...THINK THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE
DRY WITH ONLY SOME LIMITED OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS.

BY EARLY NEXT NEXT...IT LOOKS AS IF THE UPPER FLOW WILL BUCKLE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SEND COLDER AIR BACK DOWN ACROSS THE REGION AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO -12C TO -14C BEHIND IT. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS PROBABLE IN FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW AREA IN THE MONDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LACKING AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER 1040 MB EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWER. AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND WINDS VEER TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS
CHANGE SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER THE BAND CROSSES THE KIAG/KBUF
AIRFIELDS...BUT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IT MAY CLIP THE AIRFIELD WITH A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT AS WIND
SHEER INCREASES WITH THE NEARING OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
LATER OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES FOUND ACROSS THE KROC/KART
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO SUBSEQUENTLY
DIMINISH. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS OUTLINED
BELOW ON THE LAKES...AND ALSO THE NIAGARA RIVER THIS EVENING BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUCH THAT SCA WILL NO LONGER BE NEEDED.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
121 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...LESSENING THE SNOW MELT...AND REDUCING THE FLOODING THREAT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A NOR`EASTER WILL
LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
WILL RETURN FOR LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IS CROSSING THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY AS THE FEATURE
PASSES THIS EVENING.

SHALLOW MOISTURE NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IN THE PRESENCE OF
850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS DEVELOPED SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT
IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO
THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO
THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES.
QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE TWO CREEKS THAT ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE THE ELLICOTT AND TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
ELLICOTT CREEK IS EXPECTED TO CREST THIS EVENING...WHILE TONAWANDA
CREEK SHOULD CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 18Z MVFR AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION. A
SOUTHWEST WIND WITHIN COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF
WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY...WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWER. AS THE COLD AIR
DEEPENS AND WINDS VEER TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ACTIVITY WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW...AND POSSIBLY FREEZING DRIZZLE. OFF LAKE ERIE THIS
CHANGE SHOULD HAPPEN AFTER THE BAND CROSSES THE KIAG/KBUF
AIRFIELDS...BUT OFF LAKE ONTARIO IT MAY CLIP THE AIRFIELD WITH A
WINTRY MIX BEFORE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.

THIS LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER OVERNIGHT AS WIND
SHEER INCREASES WITH THE NEARING OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE. A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO
LATER OVERNIGHT MAY BRING SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KROC AIRFIELD
LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

THIS SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM WILL LARGELY REMAIN EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW FLAKES FOUND ACROSS THE KROC/KART
AIRFIELDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
945 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DISPLAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW QUEBEC WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY
ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH
THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY AN ELONGATED REGION OF LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH COUNTY SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING
SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH
CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST
COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN THE
PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS KICKED OFF SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT
PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL
DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT
SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE TWO CREEKS THAT ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE THE ELLICOTT AND TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
ELLICOTT CREEK IS EXPECTED TO CREST THIS EVENING...WHILE TONAWANDA
CREEK SHOULD CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251445
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
945 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING DISPLAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER SW QUEBEC WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

BEHIND THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW WELL TO OUR EAST COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY
ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH
THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY AN ELONGATED REGION OF LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH COUNTY SOUTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING
SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH
CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST
COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN THE
PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS KICKED OFF SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT
PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL
DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT
SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE TWO CREEKS THAT ARE UNDER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE THE ELLICOTT AND TONAWANDA CREEK AT BATAVIA.
ELLICOTT CREEK IS EXPECTED TO CREST THIS EVENING...WHILE TONAWANDA
CREEK SHOULD CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251231
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A LINGERING
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY
ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH
THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH COUNTY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL ADVANCE EAST SOME
TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST FROM
THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN THE
PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS KICKED OFF SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT
PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL
DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT
SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251231
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A LINGERING
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO
FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY
ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH
THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH COUNTY SOUTHWEST ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK
LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL ADVANCE EAST SOME
TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTH AND WEST FROM
THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN THE
PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C HAS KICKED OFF SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT WHICH RADARS ARE NOW SHOWING OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT
PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL
DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF
ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT
SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OF LATE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ZONAL PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS BY SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONGER
CLIPPER. MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE LOW TRACK WELL NORTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WE
MAY SEE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS
SUB-FREEZING AIR FILTERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON NORTHERLY FLOW...TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251009
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
509 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251009
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
509 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAY`S HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN FOCUS ACROSS THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO THE BUSY TRAVEL DAY
BEFORE THANKSGIVING WILL BE ON THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
UP THE EAST COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND EASTWARD ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AND AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE ON THE VERY FRINGE OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF AROUND -9C
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO
START THE DAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAN
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING
LOW...AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO SEED THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BELOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS...ALLOWING FOR FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OPPOSED
TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THIS
SEEDING...WITH EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS OF 5KFT OR LESS...DO NOT EXPECT
TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES OR PERHAPS A LIGHT DUSTING SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION TO SPEAK OF ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
BUFFALO METRO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY
HOLIDAY AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY AND A
WEAK CLIPPER MOVING THROUGH THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
CLIPPER WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE
10KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOCUS LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS
ON THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE
700MB WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES/TOTALS WITH ONLY 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WITH ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS THE NOMINAL SYNOPTIC LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE CLIPPER WILL BE ACROSS WNY AND LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO BE TOO WEAK AND POORLY ALIGNED VERTICALLY TO
POSE MUCH OF A LAKE-EFFECT THREAT AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO
RUN WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING
THANKSGIVING DAY WITH LOW TO MID 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250942
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
442 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6C AND
-8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING
THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR
DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250942
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
442 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND
A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A FLOODING
RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN AREAS WITH RECENTLY MELTED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PACK. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES EAST OF THE LAKES.
A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY WITH JUST LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THEN  BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE EAST COAST. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 20-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED REGION
OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND LAKE ERIE. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
WEAK LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PIVOTING SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD DECK WILL
ADVANCE EAST SOME TODAY WITH CIRRUS/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ADVANCING
NORTH AND WEST FROM THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL
STORM.

THE ADDITION OF THE SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST IN
THE PRESENCE OF 850MB TEMPS OF -6C TO -8C WILL CREATE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY. THE LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS FROM BUFKIT PROFILES OF ABOUT 5KFT WITH SHALLOW
MOISTURE BELOW 5KFT IS WELL DISPLACED BELOW THE PRIME -12C TO -18C
DENDRITIC SNOW SO THIS SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP PRECIP AS EITHER LIGHT
DRIZZLE /DUE TO THE LAKE OF ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION IN THE CLOUD/ OR
SNOW FLURRIES. QPF AND LIFT SUPPORT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

TONIGHT COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. 850MB TEMPS
WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY COOL WITH MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW SO STILL
EXPECTING THE SAME CHANCES OF LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE/FLURRIES.
WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOWER LAKES. SOME LIMITED FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WITH LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WARMER
THAN -10C AND SURFACE TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WEDNESDAY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -6C AND
-8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT
STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING
THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE
PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR
DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST HAS BROUGHT MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
TODAY...BUT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE NOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAVE SLACKENED BELOW GALE FORCE SO GALES
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND NIAGARA/ST LAWRENCE RIVER TODAY AND
ENDING TONIGHT.

A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER THE
LOWER LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS A
DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER SHIFTS NORTH ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLIES WILL
FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THIS
STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250654
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A
FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY FROM THE RECENTLY MELTED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW PACK WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY WITH IMPACTS TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECASTER THEN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK EARLIER. HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 25-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME
LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE LAKE PRECIP MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN
FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN TO AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN
ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250654
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
154 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING. A
FLOODING RISK WILL CONTINUE TODAY FROM THE RECENTLY MELTED LAKE
EFFECT SNOW PACK WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. A NOR`EASTER WILL LIFT ALONG THE
COAST WEDNESDAY WITH IMPACTS TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECASTER THEN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW RETURNS LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SURFACE LOW IS SHIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSED NEW YORK EARLIER. HIGHEST
WIND GUSTS ARE 25-40KT WHICH ARE SUB-ADVISORY SO ALL WIND HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN DROPPED. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FALLING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE WARMING
AS 850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL TO -6C TO -8C BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED RIGHT AT MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TODAY.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SOME
LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS WILL KEEP THE LAKE PRECIP MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH LAYER. THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN
FLURRIES OR EVEN DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

CONCERNING FLOODING...AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE AREA
WHICH SAW LAKE EFFECT SNOW MELT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. SEE
BUFFLWBUF FOR ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE ONLY BUFFALO AREA CREEK WHICH
STILL IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING IS ELLICOTT CREEK WITH ITS CREST TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE STILL EXPECTED LATER TODAY. SEE BUFFLSBUF FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN TO AROUND 30
KTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT
DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY...THE
CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOME VCSH.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF
THE LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN
ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1202 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL DROP WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
UPDATE. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WERE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPEST
INTRUSION OF THE 1.5PVU STRATOSPHERIC LAYER. THE LACK OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD ALOFT HELD THE HIGHER WINDS JUST TO OUR WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN NY FELL JUST A LITTLE SHORT OF
WARNING SPEEDS BUT THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES DOWN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PACK SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR BROKE RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW COVER
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL
FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1202 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WILL DROP WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
UPDATE. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WERE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPEST
INTRUSION OF THE 1.5PVU STRATOSPHERIC LAYER. THE LACK OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD ALOFT HELD THE HIGHER WINDS JUST TO OUR WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN NY FELL JUST A LITTLE SHORT OF
WARNING SPEEDS BUT THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES DOWN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PACK SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR BROKE RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW COVER
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL
FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLDER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NY
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR CATEGORY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY MAY RESULT IN LIGHT DRIZZLE OR
FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THE CHANCES LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM THE BODY OF THE TAF.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ010-019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250246
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL DROP WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
UPDATE. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WERE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPEST
INTRUSION OF THE 1.5PVU STRATOSPHERIC LAYER. THE LACK OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD ALOFT HELD THE HIGHER WINDS JUST TO OUR WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN NY FELL JUST A LITTLE SHORT OF
WARNING SPEEDS BUT THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES DOWN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PACK SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR BROKE RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW COVER
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL
FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN NY AROUND 50KT AT 00Z THEN DIMINISHING TO 35-40KT
AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR
CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250246
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
946 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL DROP WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
UPDATE. THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS WERE DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEPEST
INTRUSION OF THE 1.5PVU STRATOSPHERIC LAYER. THE LACK OF THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROPOPAUSE FOLD ALOFT HELD THE HIGHER WINDS JUST TO OUR WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. WIND GUSTS ACROSS WESTERN NY FELL JUST A LITTLE SHORT OF
WARNING SPEEDS BUT THERE WERE MANY REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS AND POWER
LINES DOWN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

WILL MAINTAIN WIND ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THE
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY PACK SOME HIGHER
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR BROKE RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW COVER
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL
FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN NY AROUND 50KT AT 00Z THEN DIMINISHING TO 35-40KT
AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR
CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250019
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH WESTERN NY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND MUCH OF OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...EVEN TO THE METRO ROCHESTER AREA. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT...THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME MUCH STEEPER
AND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE RISES WILL AID IN PUSHING THESE
HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONG WIND EXPECTED MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES WERE CLOSE TO RECORDS...OR BROKE RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON
IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH READINGS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SNOW COVER
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40
DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL
FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
AND SHOULD EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY 02Z. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERN WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN NY AROUND 50KT AT 00Z THEN DIMINISHING TO 35-40KT
AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. CIGS MAY DROP TO IFR
CATEGORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH MVFR TO VFR ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-
         042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH/WCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 242049
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...IMPACTING KROC BETWEEN 21 TO 23Z AND KART BETWEEN 23
AND 01Z. EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS
THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KCLE...WHERE THE
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE COMBING TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE OF OHIO. THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LOOK ON TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEHIND THE LINE
OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE INCREASING NICELY
ACCORDING THE BUFFALO RADAR...WITH 60+ KNOTS LOCATED ABOUT 800 FEET
OFF THE SURFACE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS
PREVENTING THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GUST WITH IN THE SHOWERS IS NOT OUT
THE QUESTION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BECOME MUCH STEEPER AND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE
RISES WILL AID IN PUSHING THESE HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS
TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONG WIND
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS...AS WE PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO
LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...IMPACTING KBUF/KIAG NOW...EXPECTED NEAR KROC BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z...AND NEAR KART BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL REDUCED CIGS/VIS TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35KTS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 21Z.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 50KTS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 60KTS NO OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-
         062.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD








000
FXUS61 KBUF 242049
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS PUSHING QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD. EXPECT THIS LINE OF SHOWERS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...IMPACTING KROC BETWEEN 21 TO 23Z AND KART BETWEEN 23
AND 01Z. EXPECT BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS
THIS LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AS THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT QPF AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR KCLE...WHERE THE
STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND THE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ARE COMBING TO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE OF OHIO. THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LOOK ON TRACK THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEHIND THE LINE
OF PRECIPITATION AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CURRENTLY...WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE ARE INCREASING NICELY
ACCORDING THE BUFFALO RADAR...WITH 60+ KNOTS LOCATED ABOUT 800 FEET
OFF THE SURFACE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS IS
PREVENTING THESE WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CURRENTLY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GUST WITH IN THE SHOWERS IS NOT OUT
THE QUESTION. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BECOME MUCH STEEPER AND SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND PRESSURE
RISES WILL AID IN PUSHING THESE HIGH WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THIS
TREND WILL HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH STRONG WIND
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MANY
LOCATIONS...AS WE PUSH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND AROUND THE 40 DEGREE MARK NEAR THE LAKE SHORES AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
NOT RECOVER MUCH AT ALL FROM MONDAY NIGHTS LOWS...WITH MID 30S TO
LOW 40S COMMON. TUESDAY WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BUT WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS DEVELOP NORTHEAST AND EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO.
SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LOW LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL KEEP
THE LAKE SHOWERS MAINLY CAPPED BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
THUS EXPECT THESE LAKE SHOWERS MAY ONLY CONTAIN FLURRIES OR EVEN
DRIZZLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BETWEEN -6C AND -8C. THIS IS NOT IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT STILL COULD BE LOOKING AS SOME
ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES DURING THE TIME. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT AS MOISTURE PROFILES SHOWING MOISTURE
LIMITED TO LOWEST 5K FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IS DISPLACED
WELL BELOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING
LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE MAINTAINED THE FORECAST A
CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE RESERVED
FOR WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW WITHIN THE
SHIFTING BANDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...FOCUS TURNS TO THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL LIKELY BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO PLACE CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE
ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE TO BEST RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE A 2-4 INCHES
ACCUMULATION. AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF ROCHESTER SHOULD CATCH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES.

THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT BUT WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE REGION...
WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IN FAVORED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
FAVORED AREAS...AS A QUICK SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING IN FAVORED
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW AREAS AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE
REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES FRO -12C TO -14C. HOWEVER...BUILDING
BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING FLOW BACKS. LATEST MODEL TREND SUGGEST
THAT A STRONG WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THIS WARM
AIR SURGE OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH DEPENDING UPON THE STRENGTH OF
THE PUSH OF MILDER AIR...RAIN MAY EVEN ENTER THE PICTURE BY SUNDAY.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SNOW LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ITS
PASSAGE. LAKE RESPONSE AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIMITED WITH LARGE DRY
AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...IMPACTING KBUF/KIAG NOW...EXPECTED NEAR KROC BETWEEN 21Z
AND 23Z...AND NEAR KART BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS WILL REDUCED CIGS/VIS TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35KTS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 21Z.
HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 50KTS AND
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 60KTS NO OUT OF THE QUESTION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL REMAIN AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ010-019-
     085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-
         062.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH/WOOD









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241725
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1225 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S
SNOWSTORM ONLY ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WHILE THESE LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
EXACERBATE THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE
CURRENT FLOOD RISK REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS
BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S.
CURRENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT
ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM
GAGES ARE REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE
STARTING TO RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING
UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING
NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY
SATURATED AREAS WILL BE RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION
MAY START TO DRIVE SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING
MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS MID 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE WARMEST
AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING. A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN IN TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35KT TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM W-E BETWEEN 20Z MON AND 03Z TUE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AS NOT
TO CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND
SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF
40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION
TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-
         062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241725
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1225 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY
SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING BRINGING HIGH WINDS AND SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION. THEN
WE WILL RETURN TO MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW
BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S
SNOWSTORM ONLY ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
WHILE THESE LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY
EXACERBATE THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE
CURRENT FLOOD RISK REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS
BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 60S.
CURRENT MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT
ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND
WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM
GAGES ARE REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE
STARTING TO RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING
UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING
NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY
SATURATED AREAS WILL BE RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION
MAY START TO DRIVE SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING
MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS MID 60S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE WARMEST
AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEGREES THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING. A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN IN TEMPS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35KT TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FROM W-E BETWEEN 20Z MON AND 03Z TUE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AS NOT
TO CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND
SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF
40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION
TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001>003-007-
     010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-005-013-014-
     020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-
         062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241140
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
640 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35KT TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR
INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E
BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AS NOT TO CAUSE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION TO
MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241140
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
640 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS
STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE BEGINNING TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35KT TO INCREASE TO 40-50KT THIS AFTERNOON
AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR
INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E
BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH AS NOT TO CAUSE
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY BELOW VFR. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO
THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION TO
MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EAST OF THE
LAKES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS
EAST OF THE LAKES.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST
THREE HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL. CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP
ACROSS WNY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35-50KT. STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND
SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF
40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION
TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
540 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING
OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION THAT IMPACTED WESTERN
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AS EXPECTED...DOWNSLOPING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS HELPED DIMINISH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREAS AFFECTED BY LAST WEEK`S SNOWSTORM ONLY
ENDED UP RUNNING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. WHILE THESE
LIGHTER PRECIP TOTALS SHOULD NOT SIGNIFICANTLY EXACERBATE THE CURRENT
FLOOD RISK ACROSS BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...THE CURRENT FLOOD RISK
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK REMAINING ACROSS THE
AREA...PARTICULARLY AS THE EXPECTED WARMUP HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST WITH
AREA TEMPERATURES ALREADY WELL INTO THE 50S. CURRENT MELTING OF THE
SNOWPACK WILL ONLY ACCELERATE FROM THIS POINT ON AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
ALSO SHOT UP TOWARDS THE 50 DEGREE MARK AND WINDS ARE ALREADY
STARTING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. AREA STREAM GAGES ARE
REFLECTING THE RAPIDLY INCREASING RUNOFF AND LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
RISE QUICKLY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS. ALL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT AS LEVELS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. IN
ADDITION...SNOW CLOGGED DRAINS AND SATURATED SOIL WILL CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS AS WELL AS BASEMENTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING RISK ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DRIVING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH A 60KT 850MB JET CURRENTLY OVERHEAD WESTERN
NEW YORK. WHILE STRONG WINDS WERE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVERNIGHT...DIURNAL MIXING WILL
BRING A GOOD PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY AS STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL WINDS MOVE OVERHEAD. THE PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS COULD
REACH 60 MPH ALONG THE LAKE ERIE CORRIDOR EXTENDING EAST TO
ROCHESTER. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. IN
ADDITION...A  HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AS THAT AREA SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
GRADIENT THIS EVENING AND WILL ALSO BE AT THE RECEIVING END OF AN
OPEN DOWN-LAKE FETCH OFF LAKE ONTARIO. COUNTIES FARTHER INLAND IN
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WILL ALSO SEE STRONG
WINDS...BUT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH...AND THESE AREAS ARE UNDER
A WIND ADVISORY. IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL HAZARDS POSED BY STRONG
WINDS...THESE WINDS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TO THE HEAVY SNOW
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS AS SHALLOW ROOTED TREES WILL BE MORE
PRONE TO POTENTIALLY FALLING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES...HINDERING
SUMP PUMPS AND ENHANCING THE RISK FOR BASEMENT FLOODING.

AS THE STRONG WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...GALES PUSHING DOWN LAKE ERIE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
RAISE WATER LEVELS ON THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE TOWARDS FLOOD
STAGE...AND A LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

REGARDING EXPECTED PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE AREA...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BRUSH WESTERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS
A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAS PICKING UP AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
SO OF RAINFALL. THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WILL BE
RECEIVING. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD ADVECTION MAY START TO DRIVE SOME
VERY LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAYBREAK...HOWEVER
VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ALOFT AND MARGINALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD
KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARDS THE FREEZING MARK.

THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ALONG WITH THE STRONG
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...HOWEVER THE
WARMEST AREAS WILL ACTUALLY BE FOUND ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHERE READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAKING A SHARP DOWNWARD TURN TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST OF THE
GENESEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE RAIN HAS EXITED THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE LAST
THREE HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL. CONDITIONS REMAIN MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHILE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...GUSTS HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP
ACROSS WNY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO
DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL THEN MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF 35-50KT. STRONGEST
GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT A SUBTLE WIND
SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED STRONG GUSTS OF
40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME DETERIORATION
TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT. STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BRING
SOUTHWESTERLY GALES TO THE LAKES LATER TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
LAKES.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
WESTERLIES WILL FRESHEN ON THE LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR EAST ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241022
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
522 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE JET STREAM BUCKLES WITH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST WEEK BUT 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO
BETWEEN -6C AND -8C WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES 5-10F BELOW
NORMAL OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY.
TUESDAYS TEMPERATURE CURVE WILL BE NON-DIURNAL AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
DAY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. A LINGERING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL KEEP GUSTY SUB-ADVISORY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE BULK OF TUESDAY FINALLY TAPERING OFF TUESDAY
NIGHT.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO BETWEEN
-6C AND -8C WHICH WITH LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES OF 4C ON LAKE ERIE
AND 7C ON LAKE ONTARIO IS ONLY BORDERLINE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
TRUE LAKE EFFECT. THESE MAY HOWEVER BE JUST COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME
WEAK LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL ONLY RISE TO 5-6KFT ON LAKE ERIE AND 6-8KFT
ON LAKE ONTARIO. MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE LIMITED TO 5KFT AND LOWER
WITH THE DENDRITIC SNOW CRYSTAL ZONE DISPLACED ABOVE THE MOISTURE.
WITH INSTABILITY AND FORCING LIMITED TO OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES AND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE THAN SNOW HAVE
OPTED TO FORECAST A CHANCE OF LAKE ENHANCED LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LIGHT SNOW OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE RESERVED FOR WHEN TEMPS FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAVE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OR DRIZZLE
WITHIN THE SHIFTING BANDS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEVELOPING NOR`EASTER LIFTING ALONG THE
EAST COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF IS FURTHEST
WEST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEM ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER EAST. SUCH A
DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK STILL LEAVES MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO WHETHER OR
NOT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL SEE ANY SNOWFALL. HAVE GONE
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW FROM ROCHESTER EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
WEST WHICH COVERS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE ECMWF VERIFIES WITH A
MORE WEST TRACK. EITHER WAY THE LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO BETWEEN -10C AND -15C ALONG WITH
LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT A PASSING SURFACE TROUGH MAY ALSO BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME AREAWIDE LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE
TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE
ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING A STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TO OUR WEST WITH A COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. HAVE GONE WITH JUST BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
RISE TO THE LOWER 50S. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG
WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW
PACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-007-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ006-008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240622
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
122 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240622
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
122 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER OVERNIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THIS WARM
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS
TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. IN FACT...RADAR RETURNS CURRENTLY SHOW A MARKED
DIMINISHMENT OF RETURNS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DOWNSLOPING. DESPITE THE LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE
IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A BROAD SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND WRN/CTRL NY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS GENERALLY REMAIN
VFR WITH MVFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS CURRENTLY FALLING. THE
50-60KT LLJ DRIVING THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALSO RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD LLWS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ IS ALSO
GENERATING A NARROW AREA OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND TURBULENCE
INVOF THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE FROM KERI-KDKK.

EXPECT THE LLWS TO DIMINISH AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS WILL ONLY BE BECAUSE THE STRONG WINDS WILL
THEN MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SSW GUSTS OF
35-50KT. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR INVOF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM W-E BETWEEN 23Z MON AND 04Z TUE. EXPECT
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CONTINUED
STRONG GUSTS OF 40-50KT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH
SOME DETERIORATION TO MVFR CIGS ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FRESHEN ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LEZ020-040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
         EST TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240443
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD...THEN
WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY WILL INCREASE SURFACE
WINDS TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 50KT+. A SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES
OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF THIS
JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON MONDAY WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...AND DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE HILLS WILL
ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUD DEPTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS DOMINATING FROM
KBUF TO KART.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240328
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE WARMING WILL BE THE CONTINUED MELT
OF HEAVY SNOWPACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT...ADDING TO THE
EXCESSIVE SNOWMELT. RAIN IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. I HAVE BUMPED THE QPF UP A BIT FROM ABOUT A TENTH TO
A TENTH TO NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. STILL LOOKING AT DIMINISHED
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS LESSENING THE LOW
LEVEL LIFT.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
732 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240032
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
732 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 232059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 232059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS
ON THE NOSE OF A 60 TO 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROTECT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH
THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPING
WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE IS FOCUSED INTO THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN
INCH...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE
LIMITED RAINFALL THREAT...THE IMMENSE VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE
SNOWMELT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT FLOOD THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND
AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

MORE WARMING EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BRIEF SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS...
BEFORE AN INBOUND MID LEVEL WAVE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SIGNAL OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE TUCKED
BENEATH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW SHOWER COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY.

THE MAIN FORECAST ELEMENT OF CONCERN REMAINS THE WIND POTENTIAL AS
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES BY THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT TAKES HOLD DURING THIS TIME. GUST
POTENTIAL WILL CAPITALIZE ON A PERIOD OF STRONG 280-285K ISENTROPIC
DESCENT AND AN INCREASING MIXING POTENTIAL AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
WITH THE ADVECTIVE PROCESS. RECENT GUIDANCE MAINTAINS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE AT 925 MB. THIS WOULD INDICATE GUSTS TO 60
MPH DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WITH 50 TO 55 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GREATEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE CENTERED FROM 21Z AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS THIS PERIOD OPENS...DEEP LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FINISH
PUSHING ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROKEN/NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS AS IT CLEARS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY...WITH
STRONG DRY SLOTTING IN ITS WAKE THEN GENERALLY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTIONS
TO THIS WILL BE IN AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PREVAILING
CYCLONIC LARGE-SCALE FLOW COULD HELP TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITIONAL
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THE LAKES SHOULD DEFINITELY CONTRIBUTE
SOME MOISTURE TO HELP THESE ALONG...THESE WILL NOT BE TRULY LAKE
EFFECT IN NATURE GIVEN THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL TO -5C/-6C
BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...OR LEVELS THAT ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A PURE
LAKE RESPONSE.

OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
STRONG WINDS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT WITH 925 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS
55-60 KNOTS AND 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 65-70 KNOTS...AND STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD HELP TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY MIX THESE DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND THE
USUAL FUNNELING EFFECTS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WARNING-
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS FROM CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA...WITH SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO
POSSIBLE /THOUGH NOT AS QUITE A SURE THING/ ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. ELSEWHERE THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG...
THOUGH THESE WILL PROBABLY STILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS.

WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN MIND...A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR THE FAVORED AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHILE A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE IN PLACE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
THE STRONGEST OVERALL WINDS TO BE IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ERIE...WHERE SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING
MASSIVE SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED TREES
AND POWER OUTAGES...WHICH WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR THOSE HOPING
TO KEEP THEIR BASEMENTS DRY.

ON TUESDAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS/DEPARTS OUR REGION AND THE
OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
BREEZY TO WINDY RIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ADVISORY-TYPE GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE EARLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
CHANCES...THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH
SHOULD HELP TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...THOUGH THIS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN EXTENT DUE TO EXPECTED MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND LAKE INDUCED EQLS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. AS
A RESULT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN OF THE NUISANCE-TYPE
VARIETY. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY DRY.

ADDITIONAL NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES...BEFORE
GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE
REGION...WHILE ALSO FORCING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD TO BECOME
LIGHTER/INCREASINGLY SHEARED. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO EITHER END ALTOGETHER OR BE PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA AS
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO AN UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR LAKE
EFFECT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
TRENDING MORE AND MORE DEVELOPED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD
ULTIMATELY PRODUCE A PRE-THANKSGIVING SNOWSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE FURTHER WEST...IT
APPEARS THAT OUR REGION WILL BE MORE ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THUS SUBJECT TO MUCH LIGHTER PRECIP...THOUGH THE EXACT
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS PARTICULAR TIME. TAKING BOTH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODEL TRENDS
AND ALSO THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY INTO CONSIDERATION...FOR NOW HAVE
ELECTED TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THIS
FOUND ALONG OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY.

AS FOR TEMPS...THESE WILL AGAIN FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOLLOWING MONDAY EVENING`S FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN WILL REMAIN THERE
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COASTAL SYSTEM...A FRESH SHOT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE LOWER LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH LINGERING SYNOPTIC-SCALE
MOISTURE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
WILL LARGELY BE WESTERLY OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
NATURE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE MORE TRADITIONAL SNOW BELTS EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT JUST A GENERAL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.

ON FRIDAY...BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD FORCE ANY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE STEERING WINDS BACK AGAIN...WITH AREAS OUTSIDE OF ANY LAKE
INFLUENCES LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. AFTER THAT...THINGS GET MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
FLOPPING AROUND BETWEEN TWO GENERAL IDEAS...ONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS A
STRONG LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDING OUR AREA A
STRONG WARMUP AT SOME POINT...AND THE OTHER INDICATING A MUCH WEAKER
TROUGH PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR/MORE LAKE
EFFECT POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE DISTANT TIME FRAME...OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY AND WPC PREFERENCES...HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW ALONG WITH
THE LATTER SCENARIO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS...
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM BUFFALO TO
RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY
AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALES WILL DEVELOP ON BOTH
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT AND ONLY FALL INTO THE
MID 40S...BEFORE RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY. DEW POINTS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT
RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH AREAL
FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ019-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ006>008.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ004-
     005-013-014-020-021.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ030-042-062.
         GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231745
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1245 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 231745
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1245 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT. PATCHY MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME VFR AS THE
SHOWERS END AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH SHOWERS. VERY WINDY.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY
THIS EVENING...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THESE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT.

THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE
NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...TMA/WOOD
MARINE...TMA/WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH






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