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000
FXUS61 KBUF 272026
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE STATE FOR PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A THREAT FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW
WITH LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOGETHER WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THE STORM THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE FLURRIES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A 2000FT CAP UNDER
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  MANY AREAS ARE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES...AND EXPECT ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF WESTERN NY EARLY. WITH FRESH SNOW-PACK...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TOGETHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DECOUPLING
WIND FIELD ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
WESTERN NY.  WILL THEREFORE DROP LOWS BELOW NEARLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE WELL INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES AND 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER/EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF NYS WEDNESDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF WNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL
BRIEFLY PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW ZERO. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...AND ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RISE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL QPF SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOW
TRACK TO OUR NORTH...AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
INITIAL PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALSO PROVIDING ASCENT.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. A SURGE OF MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AIDED BY SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S FOR AWHILE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY
WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION INITIALLY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY...WITH
ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PROVIDING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF ADDED LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOMEWHAT COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW THE GREATER SNOW
AMOUNTS TO FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ALSO
THE TUG HILL REGION. THIS MAY BRING TOTALS INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE...WITH MOST OF THAT COMING THURSDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING TEMPS TO DROP SHARPLY FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS MAY STILL BE IN THE 20S
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE TEENS AND
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE RESPONSE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF
CONNECTIONS TO UPSTREAM LAKES SHOULD KEEP THIS RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR MULTI-BANDS OVER A WIDE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW LIKELY TO BE FOUND FROM THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

LIMITED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD
TEMPS MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND PROVIDE
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE.
THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OUR
ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL
OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED
AND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURS
DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY UNDER A WEAK NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  VFR EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WNY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW BY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  WIND DIRECTION
WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF








000
FXUS61 KBUF 272026
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO WESTERN NEW YORK ON
THURSDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY
AND CROSS THE STATE FOR PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A THREAT FOR MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THE LOW
WITH LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOGETHER WITH BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
AREA-WIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THE STORM THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE FLURRIES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A 2000FT CAP UNDER
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  MANY AREAS ARE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES...AND EXPECT ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF WESTERN NY EARLY. WITH FRESH SNOW-PACK...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER TOGETHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DECOUPLING
WIND FIELD ALOFT AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...EXPECT
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
WESTERN NY.  WILL THEREFORE DROP LOWS BELOW NEARLY ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE WELL INLAND...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES AND 0 TO 10 BELOW ZERO OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER/EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD OR JUST SOUTH OF NYS WEDNESDAY FOR
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ALL OF WNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
QUICKLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL
BRIEFLY PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DURING THE
EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME EARLY RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS IN MOST AREAS WITH THE
COLDER SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND TUG HILL REGION POSSIBLY DROPPING
BELOW ZERO. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS...AND ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO RISE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. OVERALL MODEL QPF SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LOW
TRACK TO OUR NORTH...AND THE RELATIVELY WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.
AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE
SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IN THE FORM OF DPVA AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
INITIAL PUSH OF LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALSO PROVIDING ASCENT.
THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SNOW DURING THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST. A SURGE OF MILDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH
THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AIDED BY SSW
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S FOR AWHILE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY
WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION INITIALLY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY...WITH
ANOTHER MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PROVIDING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF ADDED LIFT FROM UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOMEWHAT COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALLOW THE GREATER SNOW
AMOUNTS TO FOCUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ALSO
THE TUG HILL REGION. THIS MAY BRING TOTALS INTO THE 3-5 INCH RANGE
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE
THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES INITIALLY SHOULD KEEP AMOUNTS IN THE 1-3
INCH RANGE...WITH MOST OF THAT COMING THURSDAY NIGHT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
SURFACE LOW...WITH COLD ADVECTION FORCING TEMPS TO DROP SHARPLY FROM
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS MAY STILL BE IN THE 20S
BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH THE TEENS AND
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE RESPONSE WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF
CONNECTIONS TO UPSTREAM LAKES SHOULD KEEP THIS RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FAVOR MULTI-BANDS OVER A WIDE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW LIKELY TO BE FOUND FROM THE
EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO COUNTY. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE
FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THESE AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

LIMITED NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS
EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD
TEMPS MAY PRODUCE ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND CHILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW MAY STILL SUPPORT A FEW LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES AND PROVIDE
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.

THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF TAKE A SURFACE LOW FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY TO TO THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
MONDAY AS A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACT AND PHASE.
THIS TRACK AND STREAM INTERACTION WOULD PRODUCE A SOLID SHIELD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...INCLUDING OUR
ENTIRE REGION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL
OF SPREAD AMONGST THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME MEMBERS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM SUPPRESSED
AND WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA...AND SOME WITH TIMING ALMOST 24 HOURS
DIFFERENT THAN THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THIS ENSEMBLE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE TIME RANGE...THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE. NONETHELESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY RANGE.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WNW FLOW LAKE EFFECT EVENT...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BEING 7 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NY UNDER A WEAK NORTHERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  VFR EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WNY
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW BY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST.  WIND DIRECTION
WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH
BY THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...ZAFF









000
FXUS61 KBUF 271737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1237 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON FROM A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THE STORM THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE FLURRIES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A 2000FT CAP UNDER
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  MANY AREAS ARE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES...AND EXPECT ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF WESTERN NY.

WILL HAVE TO WORK ON TONIGHT TEMPS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH IN
SEVERAL AREAS.  WITH SOME FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
PATTERN IS RIPE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE MOST SNOW WAS OBSERVED.  HIGH PRESSURE DOES
NOT QUITE MOVE OVERHEAD...RATHER IT ENDS UP OVER THE OH VALLEY BY
WED AM...SO LOW TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A GAME BETWEEN RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT MIXING FROM NORTHERLY FLOW.  GUT INSTINCT...GO
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON WED AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 271737
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1237 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON FROM A NORTHERLY FLOW OFF
OF LAKE ONTARIO.  OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLURRIES ARE ALL THAT REMAIN FROM THE STORM THAT CONTINUES TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  THE FLURRIES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO A VERY
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH A 2000FT CAP UNDER
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.  MANY AREAS ARE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AS SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES...AND EXPECT ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD OVER THE INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF WESTERN NY.

WILL HAVE TO WORK ON TONIGHT TEMPS AS THEY ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH IN
SEVERAL AREAS.  WITH SOME FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES...THE
PATTERN IS RIPE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE MOST SNOW WAS OBSERVED.  HIGH PRESSURE DOES
NOT QUITE MOVE OVERHEAD...RATHER IT ENDS UP OVER THE OH VALLEY BY
WED AM...SO LOW TEMP FORECAST WILL BE A GAME BETWEEN RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LIGHT MIXING FROM NORTHERLY FLOW.  GUT INSTINCT...GO
LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON WED AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR IN SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...INCREASING CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH/ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 271447
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WESTERN MOVING WAVE...POSSIBLY BEST SEEN IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LIFT OVER WESTERN NY WITH LIGHT SNOW THE RESULT FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...SUBSIDENCE AND LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GIVING THIS
SECTION OF NY A SUNNY MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS LINGER FURTHER SOUTH AND
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NOR-EASTER
STILL AFFECTING AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE WESTWARD MOVING WAVE TO
AFFECT WESTERN NY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT/MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS.

LAKE EFFECT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME AS
SUBSIDENCE HINDERS ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE REMOVED
THIS THREAT BASED OFF OF MORNING OBSERVATIONS.  13Z AMDAR DATA AT
KROC SHOWS A VERY LOW CAP AT ABOUT 2000FT...SIMILAR TO 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING.  MEANWHILE TOWARD KSYR SHOWS AN INVERSION FROM THE GROUND
UP.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND FOR ALL SITES
AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 271447
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
947 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WESTERN MOVING WAVE...POSSIBLY BEST SEEN IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE LIFT OVER WESTERN NY WITH LIGHT SNOW THE RESULT FOR AREAS
ROUGHLY WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...SUBSIDENCE AND LACKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GIVING THIS
SECTION OF NY A SUNNY MORNING.  LOW CLOUDS LINGER FURTHER SOUTH AND
INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION...WITH HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE NOR-EASTER
STILL AFFECTING AREAS FURTHER TO THE EAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY EXPECT THE WESTWARD MOVING WAVE TO
AFFECT WESTERN NY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...WITH LIGHT/MEAGER
ACCUMULATIONS.

LAKE EFFECT SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS NEGLIGIBLE AT THIS TIME AS
SUBSIDENCE HINDERS ANY DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE REMOVED
THIS THREAT BASED OFF OF MORNING OBSERVATIONS.  13Z AMDAR DATA AT
KROC SHOWS A VERY LOW CAP AT ABOUT 2000FT...SIMILAR TO 12Z KBUF
SOUNDING.  MEANWHILE TOWARD KSYR SHOWS AN INVERSION FROM THE GROUND
UP.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND FOR ALL SITES
AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH/ZAFF
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH










000
FXUS61 KBUF 271152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...SOME IFR VSBYS TOO. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT MOST SITES BUT KROC MAY
HAVE IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
FOR ALL SITES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 271152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY LOWER MVFR OR MARGINAL IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...SOME IFR VSBYS TOO. KART REMAINS OUT OF THE FRAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AT MOST SITES BUT KROC MAY
HAVE IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH 20Z. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
FOR ALL SITES AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270828
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270828
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
328 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

BY DAYBREAK TODAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH
LEWIS COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW AS THE WESTWARD DEFORMATION ZONE
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO EVEN A LESSER EXTENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. OFF LAKE ONTARIO...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OMEGA REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS
COUNTY THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY. THE CAPPING
INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS. LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED
IN PLACE BELOW THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE
LAKES ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY AND WILL
TAKE ITS CLOUD COVER WITH IT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL SEE A CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS FALLING TO THE LOWER SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
ZERO TO 5 BELOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL FACTORS WILL ALIGN TO PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE
INCLUDE...VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE WEAKENING AND DEPARTING ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW...CONFLUENCE
ALOFT...AND BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS DUE TO THE STOUT SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. GIVEN THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRYNESS OF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO
SUNNY SKIES WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND EMERGING WARM
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME ACTIVE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE IS EXPECTED WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT STILL
LOOKING ON TARGET WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 270501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH PATCHY MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS
WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT MAINLY IN BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS
AREA WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM BEING
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...AND A
WEAK WAVE EXPANDING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGES
OF THIS FAVORED ZONE...FROM BUFFALO TO JAMESTOWN AND FROM ROCHESTER
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA
REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 270501
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1201 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...WITH PATCHY MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS
WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT MAINLY IN BETWEEN BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER. THIS
AREA WILL SEE THE FOCUS OF SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM BEING
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN A WEAK WAVE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...AND A
WEAK WAVE EXPANDING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COASTAL LOW. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EDGES
OF THIS FAVORED ZONE...FROM BUFFALO TO JAMESTOWN AND FROM ROCHESTER
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA
REMAIN SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY
THROUGH ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA
RIDGE. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 2
INCHES FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LARGELY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LIGHT SNOW IMPACTING
KROC/KIAG/KBUF/KJHW. KART REMAINS NORTH OF THE SNOW IN THE DRIER
AIR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AS SNOW DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND
FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...EXPECT THE CLOUD
DECK WILL LOWER...BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO
KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KJHW. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AT KROC/KJHW WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 262354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT
HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA REMAIN
SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH
ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES
FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 262354
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
654 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AS
IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING. A STEADY
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN THE
FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS SUPPLYING
A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THAT
HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
LAKE ERIE WHERE THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OMEGA REMAIN
SUFFICIENT WITH THE NORTH WIND ACROSS THE LAKES TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLEANS COUNTY THROUGH
ROCHESTER AND INTO WAYNE COUNTY...AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS RATHER LOW...AROUND 5KFT...BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO PLACE THE LAYER IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS ARE WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES
FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE BELOW
THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...WITH SOME HELP FROM THE LAKES ADDING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 262025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN






000
FXUS61 KBUF 262025
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONG COASTAL LOW MAY BRUSH
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK DEFORMATION
LINGER. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COASTAL
LOW BEGINS TO MAKE PROGRESS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
MAINE. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR...WITH AN INCH OR SO
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IT WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH A SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 3K FEET PREVENTING ANY LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO DESPITE
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY PRODUCE SOME STRATUS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE COASTAL LOW WILL DRAG DOWN COLD AIR INTO OUR REGION...
WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL BE
EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING EVEN PROVIDING A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY SO...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S IN MOST
AREAS AND TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE EAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A WEST TO
EAST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT BUT ANY SNOW SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOWFALL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE 12Z ECMWF
REMAINS A FEW HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT WITH THE SAME GENERAL
PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT PRODUCING ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL SOME VARIATION IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM RUN TO RUN
AND AMONGST VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...BUT IN GENERAL THIS LOOKS
LIKE ANOTHER MINOR EVENT WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ON FRIDAY A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING THE REGION AGAIN BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASCENT FROM THE
LOW MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE SNOW
SHOWERS...AND A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME LIMITED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SHORT FETCH AND LACK OF UPSTREAM LAKE
CONNECTIONS COMBINED WITH A DRYING AIRMASS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP LAKE EFFECT SNOW RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP THROUGH THE TEENS ON
FRIDAY WITH MODERATELY STRONG COLD ADVECTION...THEN DROP TO NEAR
ZERO ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
BRINGS ANOTHER WELL DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
THOUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ESSENTIALLY LACKING THIS SYSTEM...INSTEAD PLACING MORE
EMPHASIS ON A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHICH WOULD REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH
OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ALLOW
THESE TWO SYSTEMS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASE...CREATING A STRONGER
SYSTEM WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOW. GIVEN THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY...FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE OR TWO
DAYS OF VERY COLD WEATHER POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH EXACTLY
WHICH DAY IS COLDEST DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION ENDS UP
VERIFYING.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN







000
FXUS61 KBUF 262023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN









000
FXUS61 KBUF 262023
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD BY TUESDAY EVENING.
A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PATCHY MODERATE SNOW IN
THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA IS
SUPPLYING A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THAT HAS LIMITED THE SNOW FROM MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES.
AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE WITH AN
INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAY BRUSH LEWIS
COUNTY ON TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE REGION WILL SEE A DIMINISHING
TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...WITH CIGS OF 1-3K
FT AND VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LIGHT
SNOW WITH CIGS 3-5K FT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW.
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KNOTS AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF
THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SLACKEN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN








000
FXUS61 KBUF 261759
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1259 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NY
AND THE FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW FROM
MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH JUST
CONTINUED THICKENING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT
SOUTHERLY 850MB LLJ. ALSO...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT
REGIONS OF TWO JET STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST.


SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS OF 1-3K FT AND IFR VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LIGHT SNOW WITH MAINLY LOWERING
CIGS. MVFR CEILING AND MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/WCH
NEAR TERM...AR/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/WCH
MARINE...AR/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 261759
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1259 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NY
AND THE FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST
FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW FROM
MAKING ITS WAY INTO JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES...WITH JUST
CONTINUED THICKENING LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NY
AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...BEING SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT
SOUTHERLY 850MB LLJ. ALSO...A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT
REGIONS OF TWO JET STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST.


SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
NY...EXPECT MVFR CIGS OF 1-3K FT AND IFR VSBY OF 1-2 SM. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE KART WILL
BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS LIGHT SNOW WITH MAINLY LOWERING
CIGS. MVFR CEILING AND MVFR/IFR VSBY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/WCH
NEAR TERM...AR/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/WCH
MARINE...AR/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 261357
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
857 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A STEADY LIGHT SNOW IN MOST
AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD SURFACE LOW FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO NORTH CAROLINA THIS
MORNING WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES EARLY THIS AFETRNOON
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND
FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS.

WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST..

RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE FINGER LAKES AT 1330Z. THE SNOW WILL REACH
THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER 14Z-15Z...THEN
SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 16Z-17Z. A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO 1-2SM...WITH CIGS 1-3K FT. THE SNOW WILL HAVE
A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
INCLUDING KART THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MVFR CEILING AND
MVFR/IFR VSBY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANKLIN/WCH
NEAR TERM...FRANKLIN/WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...FRANKLIN
MARINE...FRANKLIN/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 261153
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EXPECT IS
TO SLOWLY FILL IN AND BUILD NORTHWARD.

SURFACE LOW FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL JUMP TO
OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB JET FROM
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS WELL...WITH
COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET STREAKS TO OUR
WEST AND EAST..

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES TODAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NEAR
THE PA STATE LINE...AND IS EXPECTED MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW
BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN
EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MVFR CEILING AND MVFR/IFR VSBY PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 261153
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
653 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EXPECT IS
TO SLOWLY FILL IN AND BUILD NORTHWARD.

SURFACE LOW FROM WEST VIRGINIA TO SOUTH CAROLINA WILL JUMP TO
OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB JET FROM
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS WELL...WITH
COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET STREAKS TO OUR
WEST AND EAST..

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES TODAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT WEST OF
THE FINGER LAKES...AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO SHORE
WITH AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SNOW WILL IS BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER NEAR
THE PA STATE LINE...AND IS EXPECTED MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW
BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...BUT WITH MVFR CIGS.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN
EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MVFR CEILING AND MVFR/IFR VSBY PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
MID APPALACHIANS AND RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 260827
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE CAPPED OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE FREE
FALLING TEMPS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TEENS AND
THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO JUST BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THICKER
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO ENCROACH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER AS THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE  MIDDLE APPALACHIANS GATHERS ENERGY
AND MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP TO
OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB JET
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST..

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING
NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE
SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 260827
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE CAPPED OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE FREE
FALLING TEMPS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TEENS AND
THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO JUST BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THICKER
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO ENCROACH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER AS THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE  MIDDLE APPALACHIANS GATHERS ENERGY
AND MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP TO
OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB JET
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST..

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING
NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE
SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 260827
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
327 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
TODAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE CAPPED OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE FREE
FALLING TEMPS WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER TEENS AND
THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO JUST BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THICKER
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW STARTING TO ENCROACH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIER AS THE SYSTEM ENTERING THE  MIDDLE APPALACHIANS GATHERS ENERGY
AND MOVES TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP TO
OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY 850MB JET
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER
LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...WITH COMBINED INFLUENCES OF LEFT EXIT REGIONS OF TWO JET
STREAKS TO OUR WEST AND EAST..

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. 00Z GFS AND 03Z SREF HAVE A
MORE WESTWARD BIAS THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO WILL EXPECT MORE SNOW
TO IMPACT THE BUF AND ROC AREAS AS WELL AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE
BACKS WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS UNDER
A PERSISTENT COLD NORTHEAST FLOW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR ZERO EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY 12Z TUESDAY THE COASTAL STORM WILL BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
COD NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW
BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND EXPANDING SURFACE HIGH FROM NORTHERN
ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO CONTINUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WILL BRING A COLD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ABOVE TO SOME LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE NUMBERS BELOW ZERO.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANTICIPATING SOME DEGREE OF DIURNAL RESPONSE
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING
NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE
SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 260502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1202 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING
LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW
ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
NUMBERS JUST SHY OF CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING
OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER TYPE-B EAST
COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT...A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY.
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING
NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE
SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 260502
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1202 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO MUCH OF THE
REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING
LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW
ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
NUMBERS JUST SHY OF CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE REDEVELOPING
OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER TYPE-B EAST
COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT...A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.
INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY.
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH THIN
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

EARLY MONDAY MORNING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING
NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY 14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE
SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE
NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS
BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 260329
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING
LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW
ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
NUMBERS JUST SHY OF CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER
TYPE-B EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY.
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH HIGH THIN CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING KJHW 08Z-10Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY
14Z-16Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING
KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 252332
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING
LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW
ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
NUMBERS JUST SHY OF CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER
TYPE-B EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY.
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH HIGH THIN CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING KJHW 05Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY
13Z-15Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING
KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 252332
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE
THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER.
THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING
LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW
ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
NUMBERS JUST SHY OF CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER
TYPE-B EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY.
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH HIGH THIN CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS...VSBY
WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING KJHW 05Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY
13Z-15Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING
KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 252046
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TAKING ITS
TOLL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN TO LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THE BRIEF CLEARING AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD
STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS
IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY
GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NUMBERS JUST SHY OF
CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER
TYPE-B EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY.
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOST AREAS TO SEE A RETURN TO VFR FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS VSBY WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING KJHW 05Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY
13Z-15Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING
KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 252046
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND SPREAD A STEADY LIGHT SNOW INTO
MUCH OF THE REGION EXCEPT THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL PRODUCE MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL OTHERWISE MISS OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW BRINGS A WIDESPREAD SNOW ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS QUICKLY
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE TAKING ITS
TOLL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN TO LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF
CLEARING THIS EVENING IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
BEFORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

THE BRIEF CLEARING AND COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW MANY AREAS TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS THIS EVENING WHILE THE SOUTHERN TIER SHOULD
STAY IN THE TEENS WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
BE MUCH COLDER WITH CLEAR SKIES LASTING LONGER AND A COLDER AIRMASS
IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO THERE. WIND CHILLS MAY
GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
FOR A SHORT TIME LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT APPEARS
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NUMBERS JUST SHY OF
CRITERIA.

OUR ATTENTION OTHERWISE TURNS TO A SYNOPTIC SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT TO THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY BEFORE
REDEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY EVENING IN A CLASSIC MILLER
TYPE-B EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS EVOLUTION. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT A WING OF WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE LOW OVER PA AND PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SNOW RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
EVENING...THEN SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. EXPECT AROUND AN INCH
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH CLOSER TO 2 INCHES
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE PA STATE LINE.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST VIRGINIA THEN JUMP
TO OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DPVA
OVERSPREAD THE COASTAL FRONT AND FORCE LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. A
BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR
REGION...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WEAK
STRETCHING DEFORMATION SUPPORTING PERSISTENT ASCENT. THE ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MODEST 30-35 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
FINGER LAKES WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME ADDED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE. A
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DPVA BY FAR WILL BE DIRECTED TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

THE SNOW WILL REACH THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR FROM BUFFALO TO
ROCHESTER BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE MORNING. A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FEED OF DRY AIR
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW AT BAY ACROSS
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES WITH JUST THICKENING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ON MONDAY FROM THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER INTO SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES AND EAST INTO THE
GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND TAPER QUICKLY TOWARDS SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY WITH 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS THERE ON THE EDGE OF THE
STEADIER SHIELD OF SNOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE TOTALS FROM TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY OF AROUND 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH
2-3 INCHES FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING COUNTIES INTO THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. TOTALS OF AROUND 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FIT IN PERFECTLY WITH THE TRIED AND
TRUSTED GARCIA METHOD...WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
ABOUT 2G/KG OF SPECIFIC HUMIDITY NEAR THE 700MB LAYER SUPPORTING
ABOUT 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. AMOUNTS LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...AND WILL FALL OVER A LITTLE LONGER PERIOD
THAN THE 12 HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A STRONG COASTAL STORM JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE WEST OF THE STORM ACROSS PA/WNY.
WHILE THE LARGEST IMPACTS FROM THE STORM WILL OCCUR WELL EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...A COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LAKE-ENHANCED NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. 12Z BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A
MORE FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILE ALOFT ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WHICH REMOVES THE THREAT FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

AS THE COASTAL STORM SHIFTS JUST EAST OF CAPE COD ON TUESDAY 12Z
GFS/ECWMF MODELS SHOW THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORM CROSSING THE
NORTH COUNTY WHILE THE 12Z NAM KEEPS THIS FURTHER EAST. HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FAVORING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHILE FURTHER WEST A
CONTINUING NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE SNOW ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. WEAK LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT REMAIN UNDER 5KFT WITH A
DEEP ISOTHERMAL CAPPING INVERSION ALOFT. THIS ALONG WITH A CROSS
LAKE FETCH WILL KEEP ANY LAKE ENHANCEMENT WEAK. A BLEND OF MODEL QPF
SEEMS COMBINED WITH AN AVERAGE 15:1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIO YIELDS 1-2
INCHES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTY WITH 2-3
INCHES FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND GENESEE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AT
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT ONLY WARMING 5-10
DEGREES ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO FILL AS ITS
RAPIDLY SHIFTS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF WEST
TO EAST. WEDNESDAY A NARROW WEDGE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH
ACROSS NEW YORK BEHIND THE COASTAL STORM SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER
AND SOME DECENT SUNSHINE. AFTER A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THEN
SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME WEAK WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP
BOOST TEMPS TOWARD THE LOW 20S WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL TOPPING OUT
BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM PUSHING TOWARD CHICAGO MAY
BRING A SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO
SHIFT ACROSS NEW YORK AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN THE
THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS LOW CENTER TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF NEW
YORK WITH SUB-FREEZING VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL START THE WEEKEND
SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSING BY THEN
12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST TO OPEN FEBRUARY. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS -25C 850MB AIR
USHERED IN WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE 12Z
GFS DELAYS THIS COLDEST AIR UNTIL TUESDAY BEHIND AN EARLY WEEK GREAT
LAKES CUTTER. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC AND SURROUNDING OFFICES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WIN OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW
MOST AREAS TO SEE A RETURN TO VFR FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS VSBY WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING KJHW 05Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY
13Z-15Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING
KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE
EAST COAST...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
PRODUCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM ABOUT SODUS BAY WESTWARD FROM LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY
         FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 251753
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1253 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL SLOWLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT EVEN THE
FLURRIES TO BE GONE IN A FEW HOURS. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL HANG ON
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN MANY AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT LATE. THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE OTHER HAND WILL SEE A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NORTHERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
AND FLURRIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES WILL QUICKLY END BY MID AFTERNOON WITH
CIGS STARTING TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAVE MANY AREAS MAINLY VFR FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER NEAR THE PA STATE LINE...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS VSBY WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
INCLUDING KJHW 05Z-07Z...THEN SPREADING NORTH TO KBUF-KROC BY
13Z-15Z. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH VSBY VARYING BETWEEN 1-3 MILES. THE SNOW WILL HAVE A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE...AND PROBABLY NOT REACH THE NORTH COUNTRY INCLUDING
KART THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SHORTLY
AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW...WITH IFR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW.
TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.
FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF IFR
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CONDITIONS ARE NOW BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN
RE-DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM
SODUS BAY WESTWARD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 251530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL SLOWLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
RAPIDLY BLOSSOMING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES DESPITE A LOWERING INVERSION AND DRYING LOW
LEVELS. CONDITIONS BECOME STEADILY LESS FAVORABLE AS THE DAY GOES
ON...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ACCUMULATION IN A FEW SPOTS. EXPECT THIS TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
AND END THIS AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CRASH...AND THE
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
OTHERWISE AFTER SOME CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT
STRATUS IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING INTO ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AGAIN. SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THIS HAS SOME STAYING
POWER...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH SUNSHINE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON
FROM OSWEGO COUNTY WESTWARD. THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH
AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT STRATUS. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF MVFR OR LOCAL IFR VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT NOON BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE
FLURRIES WILL END LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO DRY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1030 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL SLOWLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
RAPIDLY BLOSSOMING FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND THE
NORTHERN FINGER LAKES DESPITE A LOWERING INVERSION AND DRYING LOW
LEVELS. CONDITIONS BECOME STEADILY LESS FAVORABLE AS THE DAY GOES
ON...SO EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A DUSTING TO AN INCH
ACCUMULATION IN A FEW SPOTS. EXPECT THIS TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES
AND END THIS AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CRASH...AND THE
LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE LOWER LAKES.
OTHERWISE AFTER SOME CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT
STRATUS IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING INTO ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AGAIN. SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THIS HAS SOME STAYING
POWER...SO DONT EXPECT MUCH SUNSHINE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON
FROM OSWEGO COUNTY WESTWARD. THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH
AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT STRATUS. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH AREAS OF MVFR OR LOCAL IFR VSBY
THROUGH ABOUT NOON BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED FLURRIES. THE
FLURRIES WILL END LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE EVENING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO DRY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL SLOWLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THERE MAY STILL BE A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND FROM
THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY THROUGH
MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND END THIS AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CRASH...AND THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE LOWER LAKES. OTHERWISE AFTER SOME
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT STRATUS IS RAPIDLY
EXPANDING INTO ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AGAIN. SATELLITE
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THIS HAS SOME STAYING POWER...SO DONT EXPECT
MUCH SUNSHINE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD. THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE OTHER HAND WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH
AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT STRATUS. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY
MAINLY VFR IN MOST AREAS. THE FLURRIES WILL END THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...WCH






000
FXUS61 KBUF 251438
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
938 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES WILL SLOWLY END THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE WEEK AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THERE MAY STILL BE A LIGHT
DUSTING OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AND FROM
THE EASTERN SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER TO WESTERN OSWEGO COUNTY THROUGH
MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS TO TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES AND END THIS AFTERNOON
AS INVERSION HEIGHTS QUICKLY CRASH...AND THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE LOWER LAKES. OTHERWISE AFTER SOME
CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING...LAKE EFFECT STRATUS IS RAPIDLY
EXPANDING INTO ALL AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AGAIN. SATELLITE
TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THIS HAS SOME STAYING POWER...SO DONT EXPECT
MUCH SUNSHINE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD. THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE OTHER HAND WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY WITH
AN AREA OF LAKE EFFECT STRATUS. SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY
MAINLY VFR IN MOST AREAS. THE FLURRIES WILL END THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS SLOWLY SCATTERING OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WCH
MARINE...WCH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 251221
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY TODAY AND EXPECT THE FRONT TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA 12Z TO 15Z. THE TEMPERATURE
THROUGH THE DAY WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING
READINGS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR ALONG AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AND THE COLDER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY
SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES.
ALTHOUGH THE MOIST AIRMASS IS VERY SHALLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 2000FT
TO 2500FT...THE AIR TEMP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE RIGHT AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER...AND STRONG DRYING SUBSIDENCE
ABOVE THAT. THIS LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT.

BY AFTERNOON THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH. LOW
STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW...AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE SURFACE WINDS
BECOME DIVERGENT AND OFFSET THE UPSLOPE ALLOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD DECK.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...THE EXCEPTION BEING KJHW WHERE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE MAY BE FLURRIES
FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250840
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY...SURFACE OBS SHOW
IT TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AT 06Z. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA 12Z TO 15Z. THE
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING
READINGS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR ALONG AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AND HE COLDER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY SHALLOW
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MORESO
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH THE MOIST AIRMASS IS VERY SHALLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 2000FT
TO 2500FT...THE AIR TEMP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE RIGHT AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER...AND STRONG DRYING SUBSIDENCE
ABOVE THAT. THIS LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO
WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
DURING THE MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... MAINLY FROM THE
GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW...AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE
SURFACE WINDS BECOME DIVERGENT AND OFFSET THE UPSLOPE ALLOWING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH










000
FXUS61 KBUF 250840
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EARLY TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END BY THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY TODAY...SURFACE OBS SHOW
IT TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO AT 06Z. EXPECT THE
FRONT TO COMPLETELY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA 12Z TO 15Z. THE
TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL VARY LITTLE FROM THE EARLY MORNING
READINGS...MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR ALONG AND FOLLOWING THE FRONT. THE NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION AND HE COLDER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY SHALLOW
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...MORESO
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH THE MOIST AIRMASS IS VERY SHALLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 2000FT
TO 2500FT...THE AIR TEMP WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE RIGHT AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER...AND STRONG DRYING SUBSIDENCE
ABOVE THAT. THIS LAKE EFFECT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY
OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO
WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
DURING THE MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH... MAINLY FROM THE
GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW...AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS THE
SURFACE WINDS BECOME DIVERGENT AND OFFSET THE UPSLOPE ALLOWING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK.

A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WILL
BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND CHANCES TO LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL RESUPPLY COLD AIR AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE
DRAPED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIAS WILL SLIDE EAST OFF THE
ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TRANSFORM ITSELF INTO A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
WINTER STORM AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE WORST
EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR EAST...OUR WEATHER
WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY QUIET EITHER...AS A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP INTO OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY...BEFORE
SLOWLY FADING OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW BECOMES THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS IN FACT TRENDED
A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WOULD NOW SUGGEST THAT MOST AREAS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SEE A LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE ACCORDINGLY BUMPED UP BOTH
POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
HIGHEST OF BOTH FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES...WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
OVERALL MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WHERE SOME LOW-END
ADVISORY-TYPE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT.

WHILE SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALSO STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND THE EDGES OF THE INVERTED TROUGH /WHERE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE
QUITE AS DEEP/ BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AT THIS JUNCTURE MODEL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD LARGELY BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE...AND AS SUCH HAVE CONTINUED
WITH THIS IN THE GOING FORECAST.

DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY...THE COASTAL WINTER STORM WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...
WHILE LIKELY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK. WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SAFELY TO OUR EAST...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 00Z
GFS/GLOBAL GEM AND ECMWF ALL NOW AGREE ON WRAPPING THE WESTERNMOST
PORTIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOWS BACK INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD DURING TUESDAY...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE WEST...A GENERAL NORTHERLY FLOW OF
SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT OR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY
PULLS FURTHER AWAY...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE WILL AVERAGE SOLIDLY BELOW
NORMAL RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 10 ABOVE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY AND QUIET DAY ON WEDNESDAY...
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOKS TO PASS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS AS IF IT MAY
BRING ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL TO OUR REGION...
THOUGH HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVEN CONTINUED NOTEWORTHY DIFFERENCES IN TIMING SEEN IN THE
00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...AN
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL PROBABLY GENERATE AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RECOVER BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THURSDAY...BEFORE READINGS FALL OFF AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT INTO THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT AN EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS IS POISED TO SWEEP INTO
OUR REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM...WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO BETWEEN MINUS 25
AND MINUS 30 CELSIUS NEXT WEEK SUNDAY. SHOULD THIS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE START OF FEBRUARY SHOULD FEATURE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES...AND PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON TO
DATE. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLIES WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND
WAVES DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
         LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1153 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1004 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS EXPECTED...FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS TRANSITIONED OVER TO LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEPENING MOISTURE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS ALLOWED
FOR SATURATION INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...THUS ENDING THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AND UPSTREAM OBS IN CANADA SUGGEST THIS DEEPER MOISTURE...AND THUS
SNOW P-TYPE...WILL PERSIST FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. HAVE DECIDED TO
DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. WHILE THE
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...EXPECT UNTREATED ROADS TO REMAIN
VERY SLICK OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW COATING ON TOP
OF ANY ICE ON THE ROAD SURFACE.

THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE
RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE
LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH LAKE ERIE
NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL THIN AND
SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE AND LATENT
HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT HAS LARGELY
PASSED AT THIS POINT...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
655 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE FLURRIES AND AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND CHANGE EVERYTHING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH 11 PM FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING VERY SLICK ROAD
WAYS...AND WE HAVE HEARD COUNTLESS REPORTS OF ACCIDENTS ACROSS THE
AREA DUE TO THIS FREEZING DRIZZLE.

THE 00Z BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE IS BECOMING DEEPER
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAD PROMISED...WITH THE PROFILE NEARLY
SATURATED UP TO ABOUT -15C. THIS SEEMS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN ON IR IMAGERY MOVING IN FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK. PRECIPITATION TYPE HERE AT KBUF HAS BEEN SLUGGISH TO
RESPOND TO THIS INCREASING MOISTURE...AND A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL REMAINS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THAT WE WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION OVER TO ALL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREAS FROM
ROCHESTER ACROSS TO WATERTOWN WILL CONTINUE TO SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL THIS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS EASTWARD.

OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS FORCING EVERYTHING TO
CHANGE BACK TO JUST SNOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LAKE RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS RISING TO
AROUND 7K FEET FOR A FEW HOURS. THE MOST PERSISTENT SNOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FOUND EAST OF THE LAKES FROM A COMBINATION OF WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND MORE IMPORTANTLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. NOTE THAT EVEN THOUGH
LAKE ERIE NOW HAS PLENTY OF ICE COVER...THE EASTERN BASIN IS STILL
THIN AND SLUSHY...WHICH STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME TRANSFER OF SENSIBLE
AND LATENT HEAT TO THE ATMOSPHERE.

BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A BROKEN BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH AND ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOME
AREAS. SUNDAY MORNING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL QUICKLY
DROP AS THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT...FORCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE TO WEAKEN TO FLURRIES BY LATE MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH...
MAINLY FROM THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA INTO THE FINGER LAKES.

BY AFTERNOON EVEN THE FLURRIES SHOULD END AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
CRASH. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OFF THE LAKE. THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING SOME CLEARING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NO OFF-LAKE FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID
20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL DROP SHARPLY LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND NOT BOTTOM OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE
MORNING SUNDAY BEFORE RECOVERING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAVE TEMPS IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CUT SOUTH OF NEW YORK SUNDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SHIELDS THE FORECAST
AREA FROM ITS IMPACTS. COLD AIR BROUGHT SOUTH BY THE ARCTIC HIGH
WILL ENSURE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND WELL BELOW ZERO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE NORTH COUNTY WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES WITH THE BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS.

ON MONDAY THE CLIPPER WILL SHIFT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST FROM THIS COASTAL STORM ACROSS
PA/NY AND BENEATH A NEGATIVELY TILTING 500MB TROUGH. VERTICAL
MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTIFUL MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
COMBINE WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT TO INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
PUSHING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER
LAKES AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO CLOSEST TO THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
INTERSECTING THE FAVORED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. THESE
REGIONS COULD PICK UP 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOW
RATIOS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER MOISTURE PROFILES
ARE QUITE A BIT THINNER AND DISPLACED BENEATH THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS SET UP MAY BRING A RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C WITHIN THE CLOUD
LAYER MAY ONLY SUPPORT SUPER-COOLED DROPLETS. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW AS
A P-TYPE FOR NOW WITH JUST A MENTION OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE HERE IN
THE DISCUSSION BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSER AS WE ROLL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO FILL AS IT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A NORTH
WIND AND SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL LEAVE A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS LOOK TO REACH BELOW ZERO
AGAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DRIFT ACROSS NEW
YORK ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS NOW
FORECAST TO CUT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS
MODELS SHOWING A TRACK TO OUR NORTH. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK ALONG WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PICKED UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES HAS BROUGHT AND
INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY. SNOW MAY
LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW CUTS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE. A TRAILING SURFACE HIGH SHOWN BY THE 12Z GFS AND
ECWMF WOULD BRING A COLD BUT DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND.

ARRIVAL OF THE THE SHARPER ARCTIC AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING IN
THE LONG TERM HAS NOW BEEN PUSHED BACK TIL MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE
USHERED SOUTH BY YET ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF LOWER END MVFR AND IFR WITHIN A LOW
STRATUS DECK...WITH IFR FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO
EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANING OVER TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBY BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL RUN MVFR ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IFR ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING TO MAINLY VFR LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING...THEN MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW AND ASSOCIATED IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE LOWER LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AND WAVES
DIMINISHING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









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