Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KBUF 251937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EXPAND BACK WESTWARD OVER TIME. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REACH
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW/WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A THICKER
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS STARTING TO ERODE AND
EVOLVE INTO A CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND GIVE WAY TO LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL ELONGATE IN AN EAST/WEST FASHION...WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AT FIRST...BUT SHOULD INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO DPVA
AHEAD OF SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE ADVANCING TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VERY WEAK OWING TO THE LIGHT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD. WITH THIS IN MIND THE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN ON SUNDAY IS LOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
PRODUCING STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. THIS WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. ON
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S ON THE HILLS. THE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LAKE ERIE SHORE SOUTHWEST OF
BUFFALO WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOME CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERAL ASSENT IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL FURTHER
RESULT IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED SOME BY THE
COOL AIRMASS /WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C/ CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LAKE PLAINS...TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ALONG
THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE
MOIST PROFILES AND THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETREATS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB AIR /  UP TO +2C / ADVECTING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKENED INSTABILITY / RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASED MOISTURE...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS PUSHING TO AROUND 60 IN THE LAKE PLAINS...AND
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND WILL FINALLY DEPART OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH A CUTOFF LOW EXITING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT
ENDS...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS INTERACTION DIFFERENTLY
INCLUDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS THE FEATURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THAT SAID...THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE...LEAVING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
THUS EVEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK WOULD LIKELY ONLY SET HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S...RATHER THAN THE 40S/30S. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE VERY LACKING AND DISORGANIZED...AND
THUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OR SCATTERED IN NATURE.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER WEEKEND AS COLDER
AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-7K FOOT RANGE WITH THIS.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE STALLED LOW ELONGATES AND
EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VSBY REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 251937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EXPAND BACK WESTWARD OVER TIME. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REACH
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW/WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A THICKER
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS STARTING TO ERODE AND
EVOLVE INTO A CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND GIVE WAY TO LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL ELONGATE IN AN EAST/WEST FASHION...WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AT FIRST...BUT SHOULD INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO DPVA
AHEAD OF SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE ADVANCING TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VERY WEAK OWING TO THE LIGHT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD. WITH THIS IN MIND THE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN ON SUNDAY IS LOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
PRODUCING STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. THIS WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. ON
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S ON THE HILLS. THE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LAKE ERIE SHORE SOUTHWEST OF
BUFFALO WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOME CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERAL ASSENT IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL FURTHER
RESULT IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED SOME BY THE
COOL AIRMASS /WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C/ CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LAKE PLAINS...TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ALONG
THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE
MOIST PROFILES AND THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETREATS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB AIR /  UP TO +2C / ADVECTING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKENED INSTABILITY / RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASED MOISTURE...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS PUSHING TO AROUND 60 IN THE LAKE PLAINS...AND
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND WILL FINALLY DEPART OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH A CUTOFF LOW EXITING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT
ENDS...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS INTERACTION DIFFERENTLY
INCLUDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS THE FEATURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THAT SAID...THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE...LEAVING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
THUS EVEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK WOULD LIKELY ONLY SET HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S...RATHER THAN THE 40S/30S. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE VERY LACKING AND DISORGANIZED...AND
THUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OR SCATTERED IN NATURE.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER WEEKEND AS COLDER
AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-7K FOOT RANGE WITH THIS.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE STALLED LOW ELONGATES AND
EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VSBY REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 251937
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
337 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND EXPAND BACK WESTWARD OVER TIME. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS BY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REACH
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A NARROW/WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. A THICKER
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS STARTING TO ERODE AND
EVOLVE INTO A CUMULUS FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING.

TONIGHT THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND GIVE WAY TO LOW
LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE WILL ELONGATE IN AN EAST/WEST FASHION...WITH A MID LEVEL
TROUGH DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. UPSTREAM TRENDS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PATCHY AT FIRST...BUT SHOULD INCREASE MORE SUBSTANTIALLY IN COVERAGE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN A
FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER...AND ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND LIMITED TO DPVA
AHEAD OF SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE ADVANCING TROUGH. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE VERY WEAK OWING TO THE LIGHT LOW AND MID
LEVEL WIND FIELD. WITH THIS IN MIND THE CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
RAIN ON SUNDAY IS LOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING
PRODUCING STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN. THIS WILL
SUPPORT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND UPPER
20S IN THE COOLER INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL REGION. ON
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO THE LOWER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
SOME UPPER 40S ON THE HILLS. THE COOLEST AREAS WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND THE LAKE ERIE SHORE SOUTHWEST OF
BUFFALO WITH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOME CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERAL ASSENT IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED MONDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL FURTHER
RESULT IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF POP UP SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE LIMITED SOME BY THE
COOL AIRMASS /WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C/ CLOUD COVER AND
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LAKE PLAINS...TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.

CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S ALONG
THE LAKE PLAINS TO THE MID 30S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GIVEN THE
MOIST PROFILES AND THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETREATS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER 850 MB AIR /  UP TO +2C / ADVECTING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH LESS NUMEROUS ON TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKENED INSTABILITY / RISING HEIGHTS AND DECREASED MOISTURE...BUT A
FEW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RUN A BIT WARMER THAN
MONDAY...WITH HIGHS PUSHING TO AROUND 60 IN THE LAKE PLAINS...AND
MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE
TUG HILL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND WILL FINALLY DEPART OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH A CUTOFF LOW EXITING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT
ENDS...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HANDLE THIS INTERACTION DIFFERENTLY
INCLUDING THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT AS THE FEATURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST. THAT SAID...THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A WEAKER NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE...LEAVING THE COLDER AIR LOCKED UP NORTH ACROSS CANADA.
THUS EVEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK WOULD LIKELY ONLY SET HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S...RATHER THAN THE 40S/30S. DYNAMICS
WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE VERY LACKING AND DISORGANIZED...AND
THUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT OR SCATTERED IN NATURE.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS TO BUILD A RIDGE ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH SOME NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARMER WEEKEND AS COLDER
AIR WILL BE SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-7K FOOT RANGE WITH THIS.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE STALLED LOW ELONGATES AND
EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VSBY REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE LOWER LAKES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY WAVE ACTION...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 251725
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
125 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
IN CONTROL TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE AREA UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH BRUSHED THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE MID
AND LATE MORNING HAVE QUICKLY THINNED...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE THICKER MID
LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND
LEWIS COUNTIES.

FOLLOWING A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE NORTHERLY GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PUSH LAKE COOLED AIR INLAND A FEW MILES. THE GRADIENT WIND IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN BUFFALO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHWEST AT THE END LAKE
ERIE. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TO KEEP ALL THE LAKESHORES IN THE LOWER
40S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES
FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEEPER MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW STALLED OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR IN THE 4-7K FOOT RANGE WITH THIS.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE STALLED LOW ELONGATES AND
EXPANDS BACK TO THE WEST...WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. A FEW
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
VSBY REMAINING VFR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 251428
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
IN CONTROL TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE AREA UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER LAKE ERIE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATER TODAY.

AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES AFTER MORNING
SUNSHINE.

FOLLOWING A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE NORTHERLY GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PUSH LAKE COOLED AIR INLAND A FEW MILES. THE GRADIENT WIND IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN BUFFALO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHWEST AT THE END LAKE
ERIE. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TO KEEP ALL THE LAKESHORES IN THE LOWER
40S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT BASES SHOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH A PATCHY
STRATO-CU DECK LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AGAIN CLOUD BASES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY ABOVE 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 251428
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN FIRMLY
IN CONTROL TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE AREA UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE LATE THIS MORNING WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL CLOUD OVER LAKE ERIE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER LATER TODAY.

AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND QUEBEC WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES AFTER MORNING
SUNSHINE.

FOLLOWING A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE NORTHERLY GRADIENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PUSH LAKE COOLED AIR INLAND A FEW MILES. THE GRADIENT WIND IS LIGHT
ENOUGH TO ALLOW A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN BUFFALO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHWEST AT THE END LAKE
ERIE. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TO KEEP ALL THE LAKESHORES IN THE LOWER
40S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...BUT BASES SHOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH A PATCHY
STRATO-CU DECK LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AGAIN CLOUD BASES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY ABOVE 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 251107
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
707 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN CONTROL TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH A BIT...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY IN MOST AREAS.

FOLLOWING A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED. THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO) SHOULD BE
NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT BASES SHOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH A PATCHY
STRATO-CU DECK LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AGAIN CLOUD BASES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY ABOVE 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 251107
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
707 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN CONTROL TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH A BIT...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY IN MOST AREAS.

FOLLOWING A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED. THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO) SHOULD BE
NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT BASES SHOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH A PATCHY
STRATO-CU DECK LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AGAIN CLOUD BASES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY ABOVE 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251107
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
707 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN CONTROL TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH A BIT...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY IN MOST AREAS.

FOLLOWING A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED. THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO) SHOULD BE
NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT BASES SHOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH A PATCHY
STRATO-CU DECK LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AGAIN CLOUD BASES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY ABOVE 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 251107
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
707 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY IN CONTROL TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING...WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH A BIT...BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY IN MOST AREAS.

FOLLOWING A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED. THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO) SHOULD BE
NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD A BIT
NORTH INTO THE AREA TODAY...BUT BASES SHOULD BE WELL IN THE VFR
CATEGORY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH A PATCHY
STRATO-CU DECK LIKELY TO FORM LATE TONIGHT. AGAIN CLOUD BASES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY ABOVE 3K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250742
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL GET OFF TO A CHILLY START WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 20S DUE TO THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE BACK EDGE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A JET STREAK WHICH IS PASSING
SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE THIS...THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE THE WEAK
GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED. THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO)
SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250742
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
342 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL GET OFF TO A CHILLY START WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 20S DUE TO THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN CONTROL. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THE BACK EDGE OF A DEPARTING UPPER LOW
AND SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM A JET STREAK WHICH IS PASSING
SOUTH OF THE CWA. DESPITE THIS...THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN MOST AREAS. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE SHORES WHERE THE WEAK
GRADIENT FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED. THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES (INCLUDING DOWNTOWN BUFFALO)
SHOULD BE NOTABLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER DUE TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY GOOD TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE NORTHEAST
THIS PAST WEEK WILL WOBBLE WESTWARD AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RETROGRADE THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WESTWARD SOME SUNDAY SUCH THAT
CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. A RAIN SHOWER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THAT LIGHT SHOWERS (LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/LIMITED SNOW) WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD.

ON MONDAY A MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS/UPSLOPE
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH NORTHERLY THIS FLOW WILL ACTUALLY
BE A WARMING/ISENTROPIC LIFT FLOW AS A TROWEL SIGNATURE WILL LIE
OVERHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE NORTH FACE OF THE TUG HILL. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY RAIN SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNSHINE
ON SUNDAY WILL AID IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S...WHILE
A WARMING AIRMASS MONDAY WILL ALSO SEND HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BOTH NIGHTS FROM THE MID 30S TO THE
LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY THE LONG LIVED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW
WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND A CUT-OFF LOW
DRIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER
AIRMASS IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT
WARMER TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE
WEEK AS THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS
REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...THE EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND WAVES
TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BROADENS
ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...CHURCH/THOMAS
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT
BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT
BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 250535
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
135 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STALLED VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLIP WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BUT THIS WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL IMPACT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH SOME OF
THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER 30S
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT
BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY NEAR ART WHICH IS CLOSER TO A DEPARTING
UPPER LOW...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN 4-6KT AND IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH WITH A SCT-
BKN AOA 10K FT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES TODAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 250227
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY...WITH ONE LAST PATCH OF PESKY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH LIVINGSTON
AND ONTARIO COUNTIES CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS A DIFFERENT STORY STILL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NY OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ASCENT AS NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. RADAR EVEN SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 250227
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NY...WITH ONE LAST PATCH OF PESKY CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
FINGER LAKES. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE WITH LIVINGSTON
AND ONTARIO COUNTIES CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE NORTH
COUNTRY IS A DIFFERENT STORY STILL IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
STALLED VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NY OVERNIGHT WITH WEAK ASCENT AS NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
ROTATE AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW. A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE APPARENT
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. RADAR EVEN SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ADIRONDACKS...AND THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE GRIDDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE THIS EVENING WITH NO CHANGES WARRANTED.

A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS NOW DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE
THE LAST TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 242355
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
PERSISTENT LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NY THIS EVENING. A PESKY AREA OF CLOUD COVER EXTENDING FROM THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER EAST TO ROCHESTER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES WILL
HANG ON FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER LAKES. CLOUDS
WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO DISLODGE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THAT
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AREAS CLOSER TO LAKE ONTARIO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
CLEARING.

OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THE CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS IN
THIS COLD/DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S IN MOST INLAND AREAS...WITH
SOME OF THE COOLEST SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS. ONLY THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL STAY IN THE LOWER
30S OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

ON SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BRUSH THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY POP DURING
THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE MORE PERSISTENT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE MARITIMES LOW. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN AT BEST...WITH SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LIKELY STAYING
MOSTLY CLOUDY.

850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -3C OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT LOW
50S IN MOST AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES...WITH SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE
IN THE TYPICALLY WARMER VALLEYS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER. GRADIENT ONSHORE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKESHORES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S...AND A LOCAL LAKE BREEZE MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEAR
BUFFALO AND KEEP DOWNTOWN COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BRUSH THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE LOW. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH A FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT
ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM THE LAKES...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLIES ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WINDS AND WAVES
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BY
LATE EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE THE LAST
TO SEE LESSENING WIND AND WAVE ACTION...BUT EVEN HERE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING LIGHTER WINDS AND
WAVES FOR SATURDAY WITH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING. NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS PESKY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES BROADENS ITS INFLUENCE AGAIN...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
LOW  OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIX WINS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE...DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241921
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
321 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE
LOW  OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY SHOULD MAINTAIN NEARLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A DRY ADIABATIC SOUNDING IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE AVAILABLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT IN STORE AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN
A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND A SPOKE OF UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND.

THE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...SPINNING SOME WEAK LIFT AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BY LATE SUNDAY. NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT IN THE TYPICAL UPSLOPE
FLOW LOCATIONS...MAKING RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY THERE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS...850 MB TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY / UP TO AROUND -2 C/ AND SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND DISORGANIZED LIFT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW RETROGRADES BACK INTO
NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR PERSISTENCE ON MONDAY WITH
THE SAME AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY TUESDAY...THE NUISANCE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
FINALLY MAKE ITS DEPARTURE AS INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAIN KICKS IT EASTWARD. THIS WILL MARK A SLOW WARMING
TREND BACK INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN ON HOW
A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MID-WEEK. EITHER WAY...THE COLDER AIRMASS
IS LOCKED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CANADA AND WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES. COOLER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF COMEBACK BY LATE WEEK AS
THE SHORTWAVE/CUT-OFF LOW SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLDER AIR LOCKED TO THE NORTH. OUTSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE
EXTENDED SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FLOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WILL MIX WINS DOWN TO THE SURFACE OF
LAKE ONTARIO SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE LAKE...DIMINISHING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241807
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241807
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241807
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE WESTERN AREAS. WILL SEE
A CONTINUED EROSION OF THE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
WILL LEAD TO AND END OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE DAY. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST AS WELL WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE COOLER TREND OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE.
BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS TODAY...RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE
WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING HILLS. THIS SHOULD
OUTWEIGH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS IN TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE IN THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WHERE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED. THIS AREA WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241518
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUE AT LATE MORNING...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND WITH TIME. WILL KEEP FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD DIMINISH THE PRECIP
FURTHER. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 241518
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1118 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE LAKE ONTARIO BASIN AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY CONTINUE AT LATE MORNING...BUT ARE SHOWING A WEAKENING
TREND WITH TIME. WILL KEEP FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS IN THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR SHOULD DIMINISH THE PRECIP
FURTHER. LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 241111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
711 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ROC THROUGH THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E
TODAY...THOUGH THIS PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOWED BY DIURNAL LAKE
INDUCED CUMULUS WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING. CIGS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 241036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 241036
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS ALSO APPEARS TO BE
TAPPING INTO SOME MOISTURE OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY. THIS IS CAPTURED BY
MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND SHOULD ENHANCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS THIS FOCUSING ON OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE THIS DRIER AIR
WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240725
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AT 300 AM. THIS IS CAPTURED BY MOST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE TUG HILL WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE
THIS DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240725
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
325 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR MAINE. RADAR/SATELLITE SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPPING ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AT 300 AM. THIS IS CAPTURED BY MOST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE (NAM/RGEM/WRF/ARW)...AND IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
THIS COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO TO SOME AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE TUG HILL WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST OF THIS IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR
BUILDING INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. FLURRIES SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST OF ROCHESTER WHERE
THIS DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN A PARTIAL CLEARING. WINDS/CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THROUGH MID-MORNING.

SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES EVEN IN THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXIT OF THE
DISTURBANCE LATE THIS MORNING. PARTIAL MORNING SUNSHINE IS LIKELY TO
FILL IN WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE DRIER LOW-MID
LEVEL AIR FINALLY WINS OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW.

MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS TOO WARM YESTERDAY...AND THIS TREND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SAME UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE. BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
TODAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS...THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND WYOMING
HILLS WHERE THERE STILL MAY BE A SNOW PACK. THIS SHOULD OUTWEIGH THE
WARMER AIR ALOFT...AND ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN
TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE SUNNIER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS AS
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NARROW SWATH OF DRIER AIR PROMOTES
A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...THOUGH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE LURKING
NEARBY...TO OUR EAST UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...AND TO OUR
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MIDWEST WHERE A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND PASSING
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RESIDE. THOUGH OUR AIRMASS SATURDAY IS
ARRIVING FROM JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AMPLE LATE APRIL SUNSHINE
SHOULD SEND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...WITH A FEW SPOTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MIDWEST DIVES SOUTH OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD...WITH A SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW BRINGING
LIFT AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE GREATER IN NUMBER AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RETURNS BACK
TO THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER (LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN...HIGHER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW) REGION-WIDE.

AS THE COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS MODIFIES OVER TIME...AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRINGS ATLANTIC SOURCED AIR WESTWARD DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY EVEN THOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE
30S. WINDS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL VERY GRADUALLY GIVEWAY TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL LAKES. EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING.
CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FT WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IS AT
ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR MAINE WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE BUT JUST
SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON LAKE ERIE TODAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME RECENT EXPANSION TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. A HINT OF LAKE
EFFECT IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS MAY SEE SOME
MINOR UPTICK OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE WORKING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOWED BY MOISTURE OFF
THE LAKES...BUT IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO FLURRIES ONCE IT
REACHES.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL VERY GRADUALLY
GIVEWAY TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
LAKES. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FEET WITH VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IS AT ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON LAKE ERIE SO WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL FINALLY
DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME RECENT EXPANSION TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. A HINT OF LAKE
EFFECT IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS MAY SEE SOME
MINOR UPTICK OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE WORKING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOWED BY MOISTURE OFF
THE LAKES...BUT IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO FLURRIES ONCE IT
REACHES.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL VERY GRADUALLY
GIVEWAY TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
LAKES. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FEET WITH VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IS AT ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON LAKE ERIE SO WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL FINALLY
DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME RECENT EXPANSION TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. A HINT OF LAKE
EFFECT IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS MAY SEE SOME
MINOR UPTICK OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE WORKING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOWED BY MOISTURE OFF
THE LAKES...BUT IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO FLURRIES ONCE IT
REACHES.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL VERY GRADUALLY
GIVEWAY TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
LAKES. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FEET WITH VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IS AT ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON LAKE ERIE SO WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL FINALLY
DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240549
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
149 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME RECENT EXPANSION TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. A HINT OF LAKE
EFFECT IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS MAY SEE SOME
MINOR UPTICK OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE WORKING INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS DRIER
AIR BUILDS IN. THIS CLEARING LINE WILL BE SLOWED BY MOISTURE OFF
THE LAKES...BUT IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO FLURRIES ONCE IT
REACHES.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL VERY GRADUALLY
GIVEWAY TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL
LAKES. EXPECT LINGERING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO ERODE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH MID-MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROBABLY FILL IN TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS...BUT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN MOST AREAS BY THIS
EVENING. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY RUN 4-5K FEET WITH VFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IS AT ART...WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF ON LAKE ERIE SO WE HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS
QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON
LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL FINALLY
DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME RECENT EXPANSION TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER WEST...
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WERE MORE PERSISTENT
EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. A HINT OF
LAKE EFFECT IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS MAY SEE
SOME MINOR UPTICK OVERNIGHT.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME RECENT EXPANSION TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER WEST...
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WERE MORE PERSISTENT
EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. A HINT OF
LAKE EFFECT IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS MAY SEE
SOME MINOR UPTICK OVERNIGHT.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240229
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL PERSISTING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
SOME RECENT EXPANSION TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION. FARTHER WEST...
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WERE MORE PERSISTENT
EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. A HINT OF
LAKE EFFECT IS NOTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND THIS MAY SEE
SOME MINOR UPTICK OVERNIGHT.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240106
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
906 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL FOUND EAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL LAYOUT OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 240106
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
906 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL FOUND EAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL LAYOUT OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE. EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART. 18Z GUIDANCE
SHOWING A 500MB VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF A RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW. LOW POPS REMAIN FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD AN INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC
FORCING OCCUR THEN POPS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 240005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL FOUND EAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL LAYOUT OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 240005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL FOUND EAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL LAYOUT OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 240005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL FOUND EAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL LAYOUT OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 240005
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
805 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL MOVE INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL STILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THIS LOW
MOVES FURTHER AWAY OVER THE WEEKEND THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. A
MORE NOTABLE WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED SNOW
SHOWERS IS STILL FOUND EAST OF LAKE ERIE FROM SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING
COUNTIES DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. A STEADY AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
ALSO FOUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY. EXPECT THIS SAME GENERAL LAYOUT OF FLURRIES
AND SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AS MOIST CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT
WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -10C SUPPORTING LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 5K FEET. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL
COATING OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN MORE PERSISTENT BANDS. LATE
TONIGHT THE DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EXIT AS THE SURFACE AND MID
LEVEL LOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING...SOME AREAS MAY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES TONIGHT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON KBUF RADAR OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING...AND THE AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
WNW FLOW WILL FAVOR AREAS FROM NEAR WEBSTER EAST ACROSS WAYNE COUNTY
WITH A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES TO THE MID 20S INLAND. THE ONLY THING
PREVENTING COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZE.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW
LESS DEPTH TO THE MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
LAKES AND FAR WESTERN NY WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA MAINLY
DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRAY FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONGOING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
ODD BREAKS OF SUN. 850MB TEMPS ONLY RECOVER TO AROUND -8C BY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
HIGHS TODAY...WITH LOWER 40S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AND MID 30S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
MAINTAIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES...WITH MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT...AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY/BRIEF IFR VSBY IN SOME AREAS...ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THIS WILL AVOID THE TAF SITES. AT THE TAF SITES EXPECT JUST
A FEW FLURRIES WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY. CIGS WILL REMAIN LOWER END VFR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALSO EAST OF THE LAKES. SOME SPOTTY IFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON FRIDAY THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW WILL PULL A LITTLE FARTHER
AWAY...WITH MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR/IFR VSBY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT PLENTY
OF CLOUD COVER WITH VFR CIGS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN PERSISTENT MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ON LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DROP OFF SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BUT WILL STILL PRODUCE AT
LEAST 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES. FOR NOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS
THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY IF
FUTURE WIND AND WAVE FORECASTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGHER. THESE WINDS
AND WAVES WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 231948
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION OF THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WITH THE
FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK
STATE. THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF
-8C TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE WESTERN
REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW LESS DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LAKES AND FAR WESTERN
NY...OTHERWISE STILL EXPECT ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...PARTLY DUE TO UPSLOPE
LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MORNING AS ONE LAST LOBE OF VORTICITY PASSES
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RISE
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S AS 850MB TEMPS EASE A BIT TO ABOUT -6C AND
SURFACE ADVECTION IS NEUTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WILL MAINTAIN
A COLD FLOW CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHICH
ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJW WHERE MVFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST...LAKE ERIE
THIS EVENING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/WCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231948
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
348 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CIRCULATION OF THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WITH THE
FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW YORK
STATE. THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF
-8C TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE A LITTLE TO THE EAST ACROSS
MAINE WITH A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE WESTERN
REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. FORECAST PROFILES SHOW LESS DEPTH TO THE
MOISTURE ALOFT AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE LAKES AND FAR WESTERN
NY...OTHERWISE STILL EXPECT ONLY PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF WESTERN NY AND THE NORTH COUNTRY...PARTLY DUE TO UPSLOPE
LIFT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY. WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MORNING AS ONE LAST LOBE OF VORTICITY PASSES
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RISE
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S AS 850MB TEMPS EASE A BIT TO ABOUT -6C AND
SURFACE ADVECTION IS NEUTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE BRACKETED BY
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS. THE FIRST IS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A BAND OF CONVERGENT
AND CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BE FOUND IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WITH A CORRESPONDING NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLENTY OF CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND A
DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LINGERING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AROUND -5C...WILL
TRANSLATE TO ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE LAKES...WITH READINGS HOVERING NEAR FREEZING NEAR THE
LAKES. THE SUNSHINE AND DIMINISHING COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
50S...THOUGH THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DECENT LAKE
BREEZE THAT WILL RESULT IN COOLER READINGS NEAR THE LAKES.

WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE OHIO VALLEY LOW SLIDES BY TO OUR
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD BE HAD ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODIFIED AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE WARMER READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST TO THE CHAMPLAIN/HUDSON
VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY
AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADVECTION TO
SPEAK OF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN CLOSE TO SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT`S READINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY ON THE
DETAILS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS IS THAT THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND
GRADUALLY RETREAT OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THE REGION COUPLED WITH A
MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WRAPPING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST...EXPECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN DIABATIC HEATING
WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

BY WEDNESDAY CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED DUE TO
DISAGREEMENTS ON THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS REGARDING THIS
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY INSTEAD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE IF THE TROUGH IS SLOWER/STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED AND WE INSTEAD FALL UNDERNEATH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INSTEAD.
OTHERWISE...WITH THE GRADUAL RETREAT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WITH HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 50S...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE 60S BY
WEDNESDAY...WHILE LOWS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WILL MAINTAIN
A COLD FLOW CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHICH
ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJW WHERE MVFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST...LAKE ERIE
THIS EVENING TO THE LAKE ONTARIO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS/WCH










000
FXUS61 KBUF 231811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST
OF MAINE...WITH THE FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S AS MOST COMMON
HIGH TEMPS...AND ONLY LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT.

THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C
TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WILL MAINTAIN
A COLD FLOW CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHICH
ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJW WHERE MVFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST
OF MAINE...WITH THE FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S AS MOST COMMON
HIGH TEMPS...AND ONLY LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT.

THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C
TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WILL MAINTAIN
A COLD FLOW CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHICH
ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJW WHERE MVFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST
OF MAINE...WITH THE FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S AS MOST COMMON
HIGH TEMPS...AND ONLY LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT.

THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C
TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WILL MAINTAIN
A COLD FLOW CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHICH
ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJW WHERE MVFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231811
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST
OF MAINE...WITH THE FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S AS MOST COMMON
HIGH TEMPS...AND ONLY LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT.

THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C
TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST OF MAINE...WILL MAINTAIN
A COLD FLOW CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHICH
ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS FOR EACH TAF SITE. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE VFR RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJW WHERE MVFR CEILING IS
EXPECTED AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231453
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1053 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ALOFT HAVE PRODUCED SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS THE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW TO BE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC...JUST WEST
OF MAINE...WITH THE FLOW OF COLDER AIR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF
THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 30S AS MOST COMMON
HIGH TEMPS...AND ONLY LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU WHERE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT.

THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -8C
TO -10C TODAY DROPPING A BIT TO -10C TO -12C TONIGHT. ANOTHER
BOUNDARY LAYER TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAX ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH THE MOST AFFECT AREA TO BE THE NORTH COUNTRY...AIDED
BY  UPSLOPE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND EVEN A SMALL CONTRIBUTION OR INSTABILITY
FROM EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE EFFECT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 20S INLAND AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOW
30S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS AND SHORE AREAS OF THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 15Z. THERE MAY BE SPARSE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IMPACT THE ART TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231334
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
SUBTLE FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT
NIGHT THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE
DAYTIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH
IT IS UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THIS COLD CAN PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOST EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WYOMING HILLS...WITH THIS MOVING EAST QUICKLY. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO THESE AREAS...AND ALSO TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. AFTER
MID TO LATE MORNING THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
RADIATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE SPARSE
IN COVERAGE WITHOUT THE DISTURBANCE...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH FORM ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
E-NE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 15Z. THERE MAY BE SPARSE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IMPACT THE ART TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231334
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
934 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
SUBTLE FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT
NIGHT THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE
DAYTIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH
IT IS UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THIS COLD CAN PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOST EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WYOMING HILLS...WITH THIS MOVING EAST QUICKLY. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO THESE AREAS...AND ALSO TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. AFTER
MID TO LATE MORNING THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
RADIATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE SPARSE
IN COVERAGE WITHOUT THE DISTURBANCE...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH FORM ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
E-NE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEMS...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. THOUGH THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 15Z. THERE MAY BE SPARSE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IMPACT THE ART TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS










000
FXUS61 KBUF 231108
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
SUBTLE FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT
NIGHT THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE
DAYTIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH
IT IS UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THIS COLD CAN PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOST EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WYOMING HILLS...WITH THIS MOVING EAST QUICKLY. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO THESE AREAS...AND ALSO TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. AFTER
MID TO LATE MORNING THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
RADIATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE SPARSE
IN COVERAGE WITHOUT THE DISTURBANCE...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH FORM ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
E-NE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEM...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 15Z. THERE MAY BE SPARSE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IMPACT THE ART TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 231108
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
SUBTLE FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT
NIGHT THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE
DAYTIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH
IT IS UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THIS COLD CAN PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOST EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WYOMING HILLS...WITH THIS MOVING EAST QUICKLY. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO THESE AREAS...AND ALSO TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. AFTER
MID TO LATE MORNING THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
RADIATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE SPARSE
IN COVERAGE WITHOUT THE DISTURBANCE...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH FORM ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
E-NE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEM...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 15Z. THERE MAY BE SPARSE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IMPACT THE ART TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS






000
FXUS61 KBUF 231108
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
SUBTLE FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW.
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT
NIGHT THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE
DAYTIME THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH
IT IS UNCOMMON FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THIS COLD CAN PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MOST EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PIVOTING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE
AND WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS THE STEADIEST
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WYOMING HILLS...WITH THIS MOVING EAST QUICKLY. THIS MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO THESE AREAS...AND ALSO TO THE
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS. AFTER
MID TO LATE MORNING THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOLAR
RADIATION THROUGH THE CLOUDS. SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE MORE SPARSE
IN COVERAGE WITHOUT THE DISTURBANCE...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS WHICH FORM ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
E-NE OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEM...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1-2SM IN STEADIER SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 15Z. THERE MAY BE SPARSE SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AND IMPACT THE ART TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY
IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY SUBTLE
FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT NIGHT
THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE DAYTIME
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCOMMON
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS COLD CAN
PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD
EXIT EAST BY DAYBREAK. THEN ANOTHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING
ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS IS CAPTURED BY A CONSENSUS
OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE BEST QPF FROM W-E ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SKI COUNTRY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEM...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1/2SM TO 2SM IN STEADIER
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH IS PICKED UP BY MOST
GUIDANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY (ART) THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY SUBTLE
FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT NIGHT
THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE DAYTIME
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCOMMON
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS COLD CAN
PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD
EXIT EAST BY DAYBREAK. THEN ANOTHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING
ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS IS CAPTURED BY A CONSENSUS
OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE BEST QPF FROM W-E ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SKI COUNTRY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEM...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1/2SM TO 2SM IN STEADIER
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH IS PICKED UP BY MOST
GUIDANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY (ART) THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY SUBTLE
FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT NIGHT
THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE DAYTIME
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCOMMON
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS COLD CAN
PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD
EXIT EAST BY DAYBREAK. THEN ANOTHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING
ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS IS CAPTURED BY A CONSENSUS
OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE BEST QPF FROM W-E ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SKI COUNTRY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEM...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1/2SM TO 2SM IN STEADIER
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH IS PICKED UP BY MOST
GUIDANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY (ART) THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230815
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BEFORE IT GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE MAINE COAST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY THE
WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH SOME SUN AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND SOME SHOWERS. LIFT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY SUBTLE
FEATURES FROM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER LOW. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE -7C TO -11C DURING THE PERIOD. AT NIGHT
THIS IS COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DURING THE DAYTIME
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INITIALLY MELT THE SNOW UNTIL EVAPORATIVE
COOLING CHANGES PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCOMMON
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS COLD CAN
PRODUCE SOME MODEST LAKE ENHANCEMENT. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MOST
EVIDENT OFF LAKE ERIE WHERE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COLDEST.

IR SATELLITE SHOWS ONE DISTURBANCE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD
EXIT EAST BY DAYBREAK. THEN ANOTHER SUBTLE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING
ACROSS EASTERN MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS IS CAPTURED BY A CONSENSUS
OF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE BEST QPF FROM W-E ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS MAY BRING AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW...MAINLY TO GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SKI COUNTRY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LESS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY PRODUCE SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO AND LAKE ERIE.

THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL BRING IN
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN PORTIONS TONIGHT WHICH WILL
CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER OFF IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE (00Z NAM/ARW/WRF/RGEM) SHOWS QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
HOWEVER TIMING VARIES A BIT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITION
OF THE UPPER LOW. ALSO...THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SOME
UPSLOPING BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT AND BRING AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
SUPPORTS COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
COOLER RGEM/SREF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WHERE A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD
KEEP MOST AREAS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SQUEEZE
BETWEEN TWO STORM SYSTEM...THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR EAST
OVER NEW ENGLAND...AND A MIDWEST STORM SYSTEM. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LEAVE WNY DRY...WHILE OUR EASTERN ZONES MAY SEE A
PASSING SHOWER OF SNOW OR RAIN FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY.

FOR FRIDAY...THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WEAKENING...A STRONG ENOUGH
OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH STILL
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER FROM
LINGERING MOISTURE.

ON SATURDAY THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION...BUT INCREASE SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. GREATEST SUNSHINE WILL LIKELY BE
ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHILE OUR
WESTERN AND EASTERN ZONES ARE BRUSHED BY PASSING CLOUDS FROM NEARBY
STORM SYSTEMS.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S...OR ABOUT 15F DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. ON SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MOST AREAS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH PASSING SHORTWAVES
AROUND THE LOW TRACKING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS FAR WEST AS OUR REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
FORTUNATELY...AS THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A HIT.
INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...WHICH
WILL FALL JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1/2SM TO 2SM IN STEADIER
SNOW SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST
CHANCE APPEARS TO BE WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH IS PICKED UP BY MOST
GUIDANCE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND
15Z. THERE MAY BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY (ART) THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INDIVIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN A PERSISTENT WESTERLY COMPONENT FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF THIS WEEKEND WHEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL
THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM WEST TO EAST AS OUTLINED BELOW.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS/WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230548
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
148 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES
UPON NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
FALLING AS SNOW. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS UNDERWAY...WITH PERSISTENT AREAS OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES. IT IS VERY UNCOMMON TO HAVE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL... BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED. 850MB TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND -10C OVERNIGHT WILL SUPPORT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
OF AROUND 5K FEET...ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SOME OF
THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS TO GROW TALLER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...A BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BRIEFLY HEAVY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISORGANIZED GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY MAY SEE TOTALS OF A
SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ON THE GRASS...BUT SOME
ROADS MAY BECOME SLUSHY AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT PRECIP EAST OF THE LAKE
ALSO APPEARS LAKE ENHANCED. THIS IS STILL RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL IS LIKELY WET SNOW. THIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS PICKING UP AROUND AN
INCH OF SLUSH.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY
AND MAINTAIN COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -9C OR
SO...NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN LATE APRIL. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT BEST
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT 18Z AND 21Z GUIDANCE.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY
TO NOVA SCOTIA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG
IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...ULTIMATELY CARRYING IT BACK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE DIVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY ACUTE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE WILL YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH INLAND AREAS DIPPING AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S. A REASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH 20S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CHILLY READINGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS INLAND WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE 30S. AGAIN...CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE COLDEST
AIR WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S NEAR THE LAKES AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE
A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING
SKIES AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COUNTERACT THE ONGOING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...AS
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH OF A HIT. INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S...IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS
ACROSS QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL PRIMARILY BE
VFR CONDITIONS...BUT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY LOWER
CONDITIONS WITH VSBY 1/2SM TO 2SM IN STEADIER SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
WITH AN IMPULSE WHICH IS PICKED UP BY MOST GUIDANCE THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THERE MAY
BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
(ART) THIS EVENING. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SNOW
SHOWERS IS LOW...BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.

ON LAKE ERIE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND
REMAIN UP ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH/APFFEL
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230234
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES
UPON NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SNOW PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NY...WHILE RAIN IS STILL PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY. OVERNIGHT WITH ONGOING
COLD ADVECTION EXPECT PTYPE TO BECOME MAINLY SNOW IN MOST AREAS.
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS UNDERWAY...WITH PERSISTENT AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EAST OF
BOTH LAKES. IT IS VERY UNCOMMON TO HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...
BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED. 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF AROUND 5K FEET...ALTHOUGH
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
TO GROW TALLER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...A BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BRIEFLY HEAVY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISORGANIZED GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY MAY SEE TOTALS OF A
SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ON THE GRASS...BUT SOME
ROADS MAY BECOME SLUSHY AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT PRECIP EAST OF THE LAKE
ALSO APPEARS LAKE ENHANCED. THIS IS STILL RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL IS LIKELY WET SNOW. THIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS PICKING UP AROUND AN
INCH OF SLUSH.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY
AND MAINTAIN COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -9C OR
SO...NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN LATE APRIL. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT BEST
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT 18Z AND 21Z GUIDANCE.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY
TO NOVA SCOTIA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG
IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...ULTIMATELY CARRYING IT BACK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE DIVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY ACUTE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE WILL YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH INLAND AREAS DIPPING AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S. A REASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH 20S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CHILLY READINGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS INLAND WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE 30S. AGAIN...CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE COLDEST
AIR WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S NEAR THE LAKES AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE
A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING
SKIES AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COUNTERACT THE ONGOING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...AS
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH OF A HIT. INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S...IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER AND A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL BE MOST FAVORED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY THEN FOCUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH WET SNOW AND SNOW PELLETS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO
AREAS FROM KROC TO KDSV AS WELL BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY VFR...BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR VSBY. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.

ON LAKE ERIE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND
REMAIN UP ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 230234
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1034 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES
UPON NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SNOW PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MUCH OF WESTERN NY...WHILE RAIN IS STILL PREDOMINANT
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL NY. OVERNIGHT WITH ONGOING
COLD ADVECTION EXPECT PTYPE TO BECOME MAINLY SNOW IN MOST AREAS.
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
IS UNDERWAY...WITH PERSISTENT AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EAST OF
BOTH LAKES. IT IS VERY UNCOMMON TO HAVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN APRIL...
BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED. 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -10C OVERNIGHT
WILL SUPPORT EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS OF AROUND 5K FEET...ALTHOUGH
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
TO GROW TALLER.

OFF LAKE ERIE...A BROKEN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE BRIEFLY HEAVY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN DISORGANIZED GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE BOSTON HILLS AND WYOMING COUNTY MAY SEE TOTALS OF A
SLUSHY 1-2 INCHES. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ON THE GRASS...BUT SOME
ROADS MAY BECOME SLUSHY AT TIMES DURING THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...AN AREA OF PERSISTENT PRECIP EAST OF THE LAKE
ALSO APPEARS LAKE ENHANCED. THIS IS STILL RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL IS LIKELY WET SNOW. THIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE TUG
HILL AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS PICKING UP AROUND AN
INCH OF SLUSH.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY
AND MAINTAIN COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -9C OR
SO...NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN LATE APRIL. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT BEST
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT 18Z AND 21Z GUIDANCE.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY
TO NOVA SCOTIA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG
IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...ULTIMATELY CARRYING IT BACK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE DIVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY ACUTE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE WILL YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH INLAND AREAS DIPPING AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S. A REASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH 20S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CHILLY READINGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS INLAND WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE 30S. AGAIN...CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE COLDEST
AIR WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S NEAR THE LAKES AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE
A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING
SKIES AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COUNTERACT THE ONGOING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...AS
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH OF A HIT. INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S...IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER AND A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL BE MOST FAVORED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY THEN FOCUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH WET SNOW AND SNOW PELLETS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO
AREAS FROM KROC TO KDSV AS WELL BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY VFR...BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR VSBY. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.

ON LAKE ERIE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND
REMAIN UP ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 230121
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
921 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES
UPON NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION...WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NY TO CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS TO MOVE
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PTYPE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW PELLETS THIS EVENING...WITH
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO
WET SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. PTYPE
IS ALREADY MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AND THIS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TO PRODUCE A COATING TO HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES ON THE HILLS.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY
AND MAINTAIN COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -9C OR
SO...NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN LATE APRIL. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT BEST
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT 18Z AND 21Z GUIDANCE.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY
TO NOVA SCOTIA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG
IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...ULTIMATELY CARRYING IT BACK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE DIVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY ACUTE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE WILL YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH INLAND AREAS DIPPING AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S. A REASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH 20S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CHILLY READINGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS INLAND WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE 30S. AGAIN...CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE COLDEST
AIR WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S NEAR THE LAKES AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE
A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING
SKIES AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COUNTERACT THE ONGOING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...AS
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH OF A HIT. INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S...IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER AND A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL BE MOST FAVORED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY THEN FOCUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH WET SNOW AND SNOW PELLETS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO
AREAS FROM KROC TO KDSV AS WELL BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY VFR...BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR VSBY. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.

ON LAKE ERIE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND
REMAIN UP ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230121
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
921 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES
UPON NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION...WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NY TO CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS TO MOVE
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PTYPE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW PELLETS THIS EVENING...WITH
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO
WET SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. PTYPE
IS ALREADY MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AND THIS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TO PRODUCE A COATING TO HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES ON THE HILLS.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY
AND MAINTAIN COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -9C OR
SO...NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN LATE APRIL. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT BEST
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT 18Z AND 21Z GUIDANCE.

AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY
TO NOVA SCOTIA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG
IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...ULTIMATELY CARRYING IT BACK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE DIVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY ACUTE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE WILL YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH INLAND AREAS DIPPING AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S. A REASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH 20S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CHILLY READINGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS INLAND WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE 30S. AGAIN...CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE COLDEST
AIR WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S NEAR THE LAKES AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE
A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING
SKIES AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COUNTERACT THE ONGOING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...AS
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH OF A HIT. INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S...IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER AND A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL BE MOST FAVORED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY THEN FOCUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH WET SNOW AND SNOW PELLETS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO
AREAS FROM KROC TO KDSV AS WELL BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY VFR...BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR VSBY. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.

ON LAKE ERIE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND
REMAIN UP ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043-044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 222351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES
UPON NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION...WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NY TO CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS TO MOVE
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PTYPE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW PELLETS THIS EVENING...WITH
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO
WET SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. PTYPE
IS ALREADY MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AND THIS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TO PRODUCE A COATING TO HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES ON THE HILLS.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY
AND MAINTAIN COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -9C OR
SO...NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN LATE APRIL. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT BEST
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY
TO NOVA SCOTIA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG
IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...ULTIMATELY CARRYING IT BACK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE DIVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY ACUTE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE WILL YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH INLAND AREAS DIPPING AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S. A REASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH 20S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CHILLY READINGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS INLAND WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE 30S. AGAIN...CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE COLDEST
AIR WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S NEAR THE LAKES AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE
A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING
SKIES AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COUNTERACT THE ONGOING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...AS
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH OF A HIT. INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S...IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER AND A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL BE MOST FAVORED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY THEN FOCUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH WET SNOW AND SNOW PELLETS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO
AREAS FROM KROC TO KDSV AS WELL BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY VFR...BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR VSBY. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.

ON LAKE ERIE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND
REMAIN UP ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 222351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY SPIRAL ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE FOR COOL...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FOCUSES
UPON NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS SUNSHINE INCREASES AND
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION...WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN NY TO CENTRAL LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE
MID LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECT THE MOST PERSISTENT SHOWERS TO MOVE
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER
LAKES THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PTYPE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW PELLETS THIS EVENING...WITH
ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING MIXED WITH AND CHANGING TO
WET SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. PTYPE
IS ALREADY MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER...AND THIS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
TO PRODUCE A COATING TO HALF INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES ON THE HILLS.

EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH
UPPER 20S ON THE HILLS.

THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY
AND MAINTAIN COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING THE AIRMASS IS ACTUALLY COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -9C OR
SO...NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN LATE APRIL. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM EASTERN WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES DURING
THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON COLD AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN SUPPORT STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION...AND PREDOMINANTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND MORE ORGANIZED ASCENT WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
THURSDAY...SO EXPECT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO BE LESS THAN RECENT
DAYS. THE BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FOUND ACROSS
THE TUG HILL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S AT BEST
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL MIGRATE FROM THE OTTAWA VALLEY
TO NOVA SCOTIA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. A STRONG
IMPULSE OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...ULTIMATELY CARRYING IT BACK OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM KEEPING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THROUGH THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.
OTHERWISE...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE DIVERGENCE WILL
PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...RESULTING IN WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY END TO THE WEEK WITH
INCREASING SUNSHINE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
COLD AIR ALOFT...WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY ACUTE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -10C RANGE WILL YIELD LOWS IN
THE LOW 30S NEAR THE LAKESHORES WITH INLAND AREAS DIPPING AS LOW AS
THE MID 20S. A REASONABLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH ONGOING COLD ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL...RESULTING IN WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS COLDER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH 20S NEAR THE LAKES. THE CHILLY READINGS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY WITH READINGS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS INLAND WILL
REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE 30S. AGAIN...CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE 30S.

AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION...TAKING THE COLDEST
AIR WITH IT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MID 30S NEAR THE LAKES AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. INCREASING SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW MANY
AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY...EXCEPT NEAR THE LAKES WHERE
A ROBUST LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S. SATURDAY
NIGHT`S TEMPERATURES WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLEARING
SKIES AND ASSOCIATED RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL COUNTERACT THE ONGOING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE COMING WEEK. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS IT
RETROGRADES FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS THE ADIRONDACKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY AS ATLANTIC
MOISTURE WRAPS BACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. FORTUNATELY...AS
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE ATLANTIC-SOURCED...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH OF A HIT. INDEED...WE SHOULD SEE A EVER SO SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THIS HEAVILY MODIFIED AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S...IN OTHER WORDS...CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STALLED SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
THE SYSTEM AND CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
WEALTH OF CLOUD COVER AND A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS. THE MVFR CIGS
WILL BE MOST FAVORED THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY THEN FOCUS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.

NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MIXED WITH WET SNOW AND SNOW PELLETS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CROSS WESTERN NY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD INTO
AREAS FROM KROC TO KDSV AS WELL BY MID TO LATE EVENING. MOST OF THIS
WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP VSBY VFR...BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCAL MVFR VSBY. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER SURFACE TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH
FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF IFR VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH
LOCAL MVFR VSBY IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE FAVORED PRECIP TYPE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE TIME.

ON LAKE ERIE THE 20-25 KNOT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TEMPORARILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WHILE WINDS ON LAKE ONTARIO INCREASE AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES MORE WELL ALIGNED WITH THE LONG AXIS OF
THE LAKE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY ON LAKE ERIE...AND
REMAIN UP ON LAKE ONTARIO.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON LAKE ERIE. WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LOZ044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/WCH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities