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000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL






000
FXUS61 KBUF 010816
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
416 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH RAIN AND SNOW
AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS
ALONG A STREAM OF CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY AND WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
CLEARING AND SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS AXIS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND DURING THE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES RISING TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S BY DAYBREAK...AND LOWER 20S EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.

THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF A SNOW FLURRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLY TODAY...AND ALSO ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.
CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ASSOCIATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
AREA DURING THE MORNING...BUT THIS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN NATURE WITH
THE BULK OF THE FORCING CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA.

DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BRING 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO
NEAR +10C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR MASS AND A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE SHADOWING ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS COULD BE
SHARPLY COOLER.

A WELL-MIXED SCENARIO WILL TRANSPORT THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
ELEVATED WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE...WHICH SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER DURING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FAST
MOVING CELLS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET/THETA-E
AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK. THIS MAY SUPPORT A WINDOW FOR THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE.

COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THESE FORCING MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.

ON FRIDAY... SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WILL KEEP
SOME THREAT FOR SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER. CORE OF THE COLDER AIR WILL RESIDE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WCH
NEAR TERM...WCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH
MARINE...WCH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL





000
FXUS61 KBUF 010633
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
233 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE MEAGER
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 010633
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
233 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CHANNELLED VORTICITY ALOFT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE MEAGER
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A LAYER OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES TO START THE DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES
TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY DEPART TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR
THE AFTERNOON. BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WCH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...WCH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010343
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEENS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE
LESS EXTENSIVE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010343
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1143 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IT WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK
AS SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
NONETHELESS THERE WILL BE PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON...TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FILTERS
ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH TEENS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL ARRIVE LATER AND BE
LESS EXTENSIVE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 010011
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
811 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC
SKIES BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE FROM 15Z WED ONWARDS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 312006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEAK CLIPPER WHICH BROUGHT SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF WITH A BROADER SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER ALSO ERODING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE NORTH COUNTY CONTINUES TO SEE SUNSHINE THROUGH A THIN
LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH PATCHY MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
VFR NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH
WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 312006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEAK CLIPPER WHICH BROUGHT SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF WITH A BROADER SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER ALSO ERODING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE NORTH COUNTY CONTINUES TO SEE SUNSHINE THROUGH A THIN
LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH PATCHY MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
VFR NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH
WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 312006
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
406 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...FAIR WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BRING RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEAK CLIPPER WHICH BROUGHT SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
EARLIER TODAY IS NOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TO THE DELMARVA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER CONTINUE TO TAPER
OFF WITH A BROADER SHIELD OF CLOUD COVER ALSO ERODING SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE NORTH COUNTY CONTINUES TO SEE SUNSHINE THROUGH A THIN
LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO PROVINCE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT BRINGING DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. RIDGING FROM THESE
APPROACHING HIGH CENTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING. FURTHER UPSTREAM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGH CENTERS...A
SUBTLE 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL FOLLOW A TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LARGELY
JUST BRING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE NY WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT
WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

ON WEDNESDAY THE WEAK CLIPPER WILL KEEP BKN/OVC SKIES TO START THE
DAY WITH A CONTINUED LOW CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEPART TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDDAY WITH ARCTIC SOURCED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
AND RISING 500MB HEIGHTS BRINGING SUNSHINE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BACKING 850MB WINDS AND SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES PEAK OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK WITH LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL SLIDE INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIFT FROM SW-NE ACROSS QUEBEC.
THIS MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO CLIP THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...THIS WILL BRING JUST SOME CLOUDS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. MODEL CONSENSUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR +10C. THE WARM AIR MASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF
WESTERN NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF
60F OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW
WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN
SIDE OF THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF
LAKE ERIE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE COOLER.

12Z QPF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THURSDAY...AND IT APPEARS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE RAIN FREE. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
RAIN SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE...BUT
INCREASING SSW WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. SPEAKING OF THE WINDS...IT WILL BE
GUSTY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS
ALOFT COULD MIX DOWN GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL
HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN
SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG... WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED
BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH OF RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.

THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT WITH AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THIS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THIS POINT WITH A CONSENSUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING...BUT A STILL A
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THE FRONT WILL STALL FURTHER NORTH. AFTER THIS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN FROM SW-NE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
DIFFICULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH IT WILL NOT BE
ALL THAT COLD TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BULK OF THE
COLDER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CANADA. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY RUN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE HIGHLIGHT...IF YOU PREFER TO VIEW IT THAT WAY...WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWSTORM AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL...OR EVEN AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THAT MATTER...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH ILLUMINATING FROM THIS RANGE.

A ROBUST PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL
ENERGIZE A SFC WAVE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WAVE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SUB 990MB LOW WHICH
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY
NIGHT...TRACKING BY TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS WOULD BE A `WARM` TRACK
FOR OUR REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENT...WE WOULD ALSO
EXPERIENCE A SWATH OF WHAT SHOULD BE AN IMPRESSIVE DEFORMATION ZONE
WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE UNUSUALLY CLOSE WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE RELATING ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THESE PACKAGES
DEPICT A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. IT CANNOT BE EMPHASIZED
ENOUGH THAT A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF 50 MILES COULD BE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A COLD RAIN EVENT AND A MEMORABLE SNOWFALL.

THAT BEING SAID...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS WE PUSH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. AS THE STRENGTHENING
STORM CROSSES INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING...COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM WITHIN
THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO ACCUMULATING SNOW. IT
WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS CHANGE OVER AND RELATION TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF ANY
IMPACT FROM THE STORM. SINCE THE CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS POINT...WILL ADDRESS THE RISK
IN AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO PRODUCT). FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...POPS WILL BE RAISED FROM LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. WHILE THERE
IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE PCPN FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PTYPE THAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED. STAY
TUNED.

AS THE DEEP STORM SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA
ON SATURDAY...EXPANSIVE SFC BASED RIDGING WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE
WIDESPREAD STEADY SNOW THAT WILL BE FOUND OVER MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BUT NOT BEFORE SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION TAKE PLACE. THE MORNING SNOW SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED
BY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH AS WELL...LIKELY MAKING THE MORNING A
DIFFICULT TIME FOR TRAVEL. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL DEFINITELY
NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY APRIL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL FLATTEN THE NOSE THE NORTHWARD EXTENDING SFC HIGH (FROM
THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS) WHILE PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION. THIS MOISTURE CHALLENGED FROPA IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANYTHING MORE THAN LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

ON EASTER SUNDAY...A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE AN EAST TO WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LURK
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE PRECEDING 8 HOURS. GUIDANCE IS
NOW SUGGESTING THAT LIFT PROVIDED BY A COUPLED 125KT H25 JET AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THAT EASTER FALLS IN EARLY APRIL...CLIMATOLOGY POINTS OUT THAT
SNOWFALL WOULD NOT BE UNCOMMON. IN FACT...SINCE THE 1870S WHEN
EASTER FALLS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...IT HAS SNOWED NEARLY A
THIRD OF THE TIME. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...THIS EASTER WILL BE
CHILLY TO SAY THE LEAST. UNLIKE LAST YEAR WHEN THE MERCURY TOPPED 70
IN MANY LOCATIONS...READINGS THIS YEAR SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S. THE LAST TIME WE HAD AN EASTER THIS CHILLY WAS IN 2008 WHEN
EASTER FELL DURING THE THIRD WEEK OF MARCH (ABOUT AS EARLY AS IT
COULD BE).

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THE SUBTLE LIFT FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF  SOME LIGHT PCPN...BUT NOTHING THAT
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
FOR MONDAY...SO EVEN IF THE PCPN WERE ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...
DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINIMAL.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FAMILIES THAT A BROAD RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO LAKE MICHIGAN.
THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STRONG WARMING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS. OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THE NOSE OF THIS WARMING
SHOULD MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MAX TEMPS PUSHING TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 50 (MID 40S NORTH
COUNTRY).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH PATCHY MVFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
VFR NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL WORK SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH
WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES BUT GENERALLY EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODEST RAINFALL COULD
POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME FLOODING. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
MELTED SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...THERE IS
STILL A SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE
INTO THE 50S AND 60S WHICH WILL PROBABLY MELT MOST OF THE REMAINING
SNOW SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN. CURRENT QPF FORECASTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT...IN
THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...IF BASINS RECEIVE MORE
THAN THIS...OR IF TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT WARMER THAN FORECAST THEN
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLOODING. MMEFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
THIS RISK AND SUGGEST THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLOODING IN THE
BLACK RIVER AND BUFFALO CREEKS BASINS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
HYDROLOGY...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 311751
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT
THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE CLIPPER IS SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE OH/PA
BORDER. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALL SHOWING
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CLIPPER IS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PA. FURTHER NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE JUST BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER TAPERING TO THIN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE WORKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRACK AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED LARGELY
JUST BRINGING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
TEENS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH IFR ONLY CONFINED TO KBFD AND EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES. VFR NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK
SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311751
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT
THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE CLIPPER IS SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE OH/PA
BORDER. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALL SHOWING
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CLIPPER IS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PA. FURTHER NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE JUST BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER TAPERING TO THIN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE WORKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRACK AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED LARGELY
JUST BRINGING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
TEENS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH IFR ONLY CONFINED TO KBFD AND EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES. VFR NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK
SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 311751
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT
THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE CLIPPER IS SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE OH/PA
BORDER. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALL SHOWING
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CLIPPER IS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PA. FURTHER NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE JUST BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER TAPERING TO THIN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE WORKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRACK AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED LARGELY
JUST BRINGING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
TEENS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH IFR ONLY CONFINED TO KBFD AND EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES. VFR NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK
SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311751
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT
THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SURFACE CLIPPER IS SHIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARENT 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE OH/PA
BORDER. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALL SHOWING
SOUTHERN TIER/FINGER LAKES SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK CLIPPER IS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT SHIFT
SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL PA. FURTHER NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE JUST BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER TAPERING TO THIN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING
THROUGH THE 30S WITH LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UPPER
30S IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.

DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW YORK THIS EVENING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ARE WORKING SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
TRACK AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE VERY LIMITED LARGELY
JUST BRINGING A PERIOD OF BKN/OVC SKIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
A LOW CHANCE OF SOME FLURRIES TOWARD THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER INTO
PA AS CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF FIELDS INDICATE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION. THE CLEARING EARLY IN THE EVENING WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
TEENS IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL SLOW THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK CLIPPER LOW IS SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST PA
THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWING SNOW IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH IFR ONLY CONFINED TO KBFD AND EAST INTO THE
FINGER LAKES. VFR NORTH AND WEST OF THESE AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK
SOUTH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING AND LIFTING OF CIGS. LATER
TONIGHT A SECOND MUCH WEAKER LOW WILL BRING BACK SOME BKN/OVC SKIES
BUT GENERALLY EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT NORTH-EASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES INTO
TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND
GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND
THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER
NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH
WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 311410
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PASSING SOUTH OF
NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. KBUF RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SNOW SNOW SHOWERS LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS.
THIS MORNINGS 12Z RAOB SHOWED A LAYER OF DRY AIR AT 800MB WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP METRO BUFFALO AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST SNOW-FREE
WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT BEING CLOUDY SKIES.

CONCERNING THE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL SNOW.
STILL EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS TO RUN IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...SUB-ADVISORY AND WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE
NY/PA LINE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LATE-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. AS SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY... LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY
COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING OUT
EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW REMAIN AT LIFR
LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT JHW
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 311410
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PASSING SOUTH OF
NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. KBUF RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SNOW SNOW SHOWERS LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS.
THIS MORNINGS 12Z RAOB SHOWED A LAYER OF DRY AIR AT 800MB WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP METRO BUFFALO AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST SNOW-FREE
WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT BEING CLOUDY SKIES.

CONCERNING THE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL SNOW.
STILL EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS TO RUN IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...SUB-ADVISORY AND WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE
NY/PA LINE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LATE-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. AS SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY... LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY
COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING OUT
EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW REMAIN AT LIFR
LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT JHW
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 311410
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PASSING SOUTH OF
NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. KBUF RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SNOW SNOW SHOWERS LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS.
THIS MORNINGS 12Z RAOB SHOWED A LAYER OF DRY AIR AT 800MB WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP METRO BUFFALO AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST SNOW-FREE
WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT BEING CLOUDY SKIES.

CONCERNING THE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL SNOW.
STILL EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS TO RUN IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...SUB-ADVISORY AND WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE
NY/PA LINE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LATE-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. AS SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY... LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY
COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING OUT
EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW REMAIN AT LIFR
LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT JHW
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311410
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE AXIS OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A WEAK CLIPPER LOW PASSING SOUTH OF
NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. KBUF RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE SNOW SNOW SHOWERS LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS.
THIS MORNINGS 12Z RAOB SHOWED A LAYER OF DRY AIR AT 800MB WHICH IS
HELPING TO KEEP METRO BUFFALO AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST SNOW-FREE
WITH THE ONLY SENSIBLE IMPACT BEING CLOUDY SKIES.

CONCERNING THE SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...THE TRACK OF THE
CLIPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL SNOW.
STILL EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS TO RUN IN THE RANGE OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...SUB-ADVISORY AND WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG THE
NY/PA LINE. THE SNOW WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
LATE-MARCH SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER...THUS
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. AS SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SNOW ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. ANY ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

NORTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER
AND THE NORTH COUNTRY... LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY
COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING OUT
EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW REMAIN AT LIFR
LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT JHW
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WORK IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS OHIO INTO
PENNSYLVANIA... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGING CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST ONTARIO WAVES
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
SHIFTING ICE ON LAKE ERIE AND THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. AS
THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH OVER NEW YORK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WINDS
WILL VEER TO NORTHERLY WITH WAVES INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ONTARIO LAKE SHORE.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/SMITH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH/SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL SEND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS PA...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT TO
WEATHER TODAY...OTHER THAN A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY AS THE
NORTHERN SHIELD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN. COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST TO THIS
MORNINGS RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS ACTUALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST AS OF 12Z. FORECAST QPF IS FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/GEM/NAM/(21Z)SREF WHICH WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN SOME 09Z HRRR...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPTURING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
NY OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH CLOSEST TO JAMESTOWN AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE PRIMED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
AT THE ONSET WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLY DAY TIMING WILL
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER / INCLUDING CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES / SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE PA BORDER.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASING HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WORKING AGAINST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. THUS ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ANY
ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES AT THAT POINT SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE / INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY /
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE
LONG GONE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING
OUT EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
/ PA NORTHERN TIER TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING AS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT JHW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 311139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL SEND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS PA...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT TO
WEATHER TODAY...OTHER THAN A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY AS THE
NORTHERN SHIELD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN. COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST TO THIS
MORNINGS RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS ACTUALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST AS OF 12Z. FORECAST QPF IS FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/GEM/NAM/(21Z)SREF WHICH WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN SOME 09Z HRRR...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPTURING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
NY OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH CLOSEST TO JAMESTOWN AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE PRIMED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
AT THE ONSET WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLY DAY TIMING WILL
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER / INCLUDING CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES / SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE PA BORDER.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASING HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WORKING AGAINST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. THUS ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ANY
ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES AT THAT POINT SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE / INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY /
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE
LONG GONE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING
OUT EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
/ PA NORTHERN TIER TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING AS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT JHW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 311139
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
739 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL SEND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS PA...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT TO
WEATHER TODAY...OTHER THAN A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY AS THE
NORTHERN SHIELD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN. COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST TO THIS
MORNINGS RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS ACTUALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST AS OF 12Z. FORECAST QPF IS FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/GEM/NAM/(21Z)SREF WHICH WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN SOME 09Z HRRR...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPTURING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
NY OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH CLOSEST TO JAMESTOWN AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE PRIMED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
AT THE ONSET WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLY DAY TIMING WILL
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER / INCLUDING CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES / SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE PA BORDER.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASING HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WORKING AGAINST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. THUS ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ANY
ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES AT THAT POINT SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE / INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY /
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE
LONG GONE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING
OUT EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
/ PA NORTHERN TIER TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING AS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT JHW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL SEND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS PA...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT TO
WEATHER TODAY...OTHER THAN A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY AS THE
NORTHERN SHIELD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN. COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST TO THIS
MORNINGS RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS ACTUALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST AS OF 08Z. FORECAST QPF IS FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/GEM/NAM/(21Z)SREF WHICH WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN SOME 05Z HRRR...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPTURING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
NY OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH CLOSEST TO JAMESTOWN AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE PRIMED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
AT THE ONSET WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLY DAY TIMING WILL
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER / INCLUDING CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES / SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE PA BORDER.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASING HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WORKING AGAINST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. THUS ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ANY
ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES AT THAT POINT SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE / INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY /
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE
LONG GONE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING
OUT EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
/ PA NORTHERN TIER TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING AS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT JHW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL SEND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS PA...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT TO
WEATHER TODAY...OTHER THAN A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY AS THE
NORTHERN SHIELD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN. COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST TO THIS
MORNINGS RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS ACTUALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST AS OF 08Z. FORECAST QPF IS FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/GEM/NAM/(21Z)SREF WHICH WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN SOME 05Z HRRR...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPTURING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
NY OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH CLOSEST TO JAMESTOWN AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE PRIMED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
AT THE ONSET WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLY DAY TIMING WILL
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER / INCLUDING CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES / SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE PA BORDER.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASING HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WORKING AGAINST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. THUS ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ANY
ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES AT THAT POINT SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE / INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY /
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE
LONG GONE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING
OUT EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
/ PA NORTHERN TIER TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING AS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT JHW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL SEND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS PA...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT TO
WEATHER TODAY...OTHER THAN A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY AS THE
NORTHERN SHIELD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN. COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST TO THIS
MORNINGS RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS ACTUALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST AS OF 08Z. FORECAST QPF IS FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/GEM/NAM/(21Z)SREF WHICH WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN SOME 05Z HRRR...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPTURING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
NY OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH CLOSEST TO JAMESTOWN AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE PRIMED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
AT THE ONSET WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLY DAY TIMING WILL
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER / INCLUDING CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES / SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE PA BORDER.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASING HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WORKING AGAINST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. THUS ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ANY
ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES AT THAT POINT SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE / INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY /
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE
LONG GONE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING
OUT EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
/ PA NORTHERN TIER TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING AS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT JHW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY COULD BRING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCTIVE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY THIS EVENING. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL SEND PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN TIER TODAY...AND WITH A COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS PA...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM BUFFALO TO ROCHESTER
AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE SENSIBLE IMPACT TO
WEATHER TODAY...OTHER THAN A MAINLY CLOUDY AND COOL DAY AS THE
NORTHERN SHIELD OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SLIDES ACROSS THE
STATE.

THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE WAVE SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN. COMPARING THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FORECAST TO THIS
MORNINGS RADAR/SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS...IT APPEARS THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD IS ACTUALLY EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE MODELS
FORECAST AS OF 08Z. FORECAST QPF IS FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/GEM/NAM/(21Z)SREF WHICH WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BY BLENDING IN SOME 05Z HRRR...WHICH
SEEMS TO BE BETTER CAPTURING THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS
NORTHERN PA...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS IN WESTERN
NY OF AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH CLOSEST TO JAMESTOWN AND THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ARE PRIMED TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW
AT THE ONSET WITH THE WARM LAYER ALOFT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH
ACROSS PA. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND THE
JAMESTOWN AREA INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS AND EARLY DAY TIMING WILL
SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...AND WOULD NOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS VERY LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
AN ADVISORY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER / INCLUDING CATTARAUGUS
AND ALLEGANY COUNTIES / SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSEST TO THE PA BORDER.
THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO INCREASING HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER WORKING AGAINST
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON PAVED SURFACES. THUS ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. AS
SNOW RATES DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY THE SNOW
ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. ANY
ACCUMULATED SNOW REMAINING ON PAVED SURFACES AT THAT POINT SHOULD
QUICKLY MELT OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE / INCLUDING BUFFALO...ROCHESTER AND THE NORTH COUNTRY /
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE THRUWAY SHOULD SEE AN
ENTIRELY DRY DAY. WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION TO CONTENT
WITH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CLOUD COVER LIKELY KEEPING MOST LOCATIONS FROM
TOUCHING 40.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE AND SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL BE
LONG GONE AND DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY CLEARING
OUT EARLY AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SOME THIN LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY MORNING ANOTHER MUCH WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. ANY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION...BUT IT WILL BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AND
WESTERN FINGER LAKES INTO WESTERN NY. THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE CLIPPER WASHES OUT AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH INCREASING
DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NY AND LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE DRIFTING TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS INITIALLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH AND FORCE RISING TEMPERATURES. A WARM
FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE NORTH COUNTRY BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...WHERE A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING THE
GROUND WITH JUST A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE WARM FRONT WILL EXIT THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY THURSDAY...LEAVING
THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE DAY. DEEP SSW FLOW WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO SOAR TO NEAR +10C. THE
COMBINATION OF A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS AND SSW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN
NY...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE LAST TIME WE SAW A HIGH TEMP OF 60F
OR HIGHER WAS NOVEMBER 30TH AT BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER. THE SSW WIND
DIRECTION WILL KEEP MOST OF THE LAKE COOLING ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF
THE BORDER...EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG THE NIAGARA RIVER OFF LAKE ERIE
AND NEAR CAPE VINCENT OFF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER.

MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN FREE...BUT ONGOING WARM ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE INITIAL MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND DPVA COULD PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET
MAX. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS...REACHING WESTERN
NY DURING THE MID EVENING THEN SPREADING EAST TO THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG...
WITH CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A 60+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. A PLUME OF
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPTURED BY THIS SYSTEM...WITH PWAT RISING
TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF QUALITY
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO
THIRD OF AN INCH OVER A FEW HOURS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ALSO SHOW
SOME LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH
AROUND 100J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND SHOWALTER INDEX NEAR 0C. WHILE
THESE INSTABILITY VALUES ARE EXTREMELY MARGINAL...IN THE PRESENCE OF
A STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD...ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /WITH OR WITHOUT
THUNDER/ ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE VERY GUSTY WINDS.

THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND A STRONG PUSH OF DRYING MOVES INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL START OFF DRY...BUT LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST FORCED BY A
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIP AGAIN LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS...AND HAS
SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z CANADIAN GEM WITH A SIMILAR TRACK AND
INTENSITY. AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH...COLDER AIR WILL
BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE JUST RIGHT THERE COULD EVEN BE
SOME ACCUMULATION.

THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING
WITH JUST A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN DROP TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS.
THIS WILL KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN
ONLY IN THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SUNDAY
DRY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.

BY MONDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF BRING A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND
WET SNOW. LOOKING A LITTLE FARTHER AHEAD...BEHIND THIS SLOWLY MOVING
BOUNDARY ANOTHER PUSH OF MUCH WARMER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE FOR AT LEAST
A DAY OR TWO AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NY SOUTHERN TIER
/ PA NORTHERN TIER TODAY. CONDITIONS AT KJHW WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER THIS MORNING AS SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT JHW WITH UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...BUT DRIER AIR WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUD
DECK.

ELSEWHERE...KIAG/KBUF/KROC/KART WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM
THE CLIPPER LOW OUTSIDE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KBUF FROM MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY... BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE
OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECT
IFR OR LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT  AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE
OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECT
IFR OR LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT  AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE
OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECT
IFR OR LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT  AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
130 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE
OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TODAY. EXPECT
IFR OR LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR
AS WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT  AND WEDNESDAY...VFR. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...CHURCH/THOMAS
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310240
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 310240
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 310240
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LIFT HAS NOW PASSED...THERE REMAINS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO
CANADA. THIS FEATURE BEFORE IT ALL TOGETHER DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE SKIES
WILL CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

AFTER MIDNIGHT WE SHALL SEE CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK. THESE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK BY DAYBREAK. THE
LEADING EDGE OF SNOW MAY ALSO REACH CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 302349
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY EVENING...WITH
RADAR DISPLAYING LINGERING RAIN/MAJORITY SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NY/PA
STATE LINE...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND THE NOW PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA...WITH THIS CLEARING EXPANDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...BUT BRIEFLY AS CLOUDS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE STATE OF OHIO FILL BACK EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 302349
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY EVENING...WITH
RADAR DISPLAYING LINGERING RAIN/MAJORITY SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NY/PA
STATE LINE...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND THE NOW PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA...WITH THIS CLEARING EXPANDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...BUT BRIEFLY AS CLOUDS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE STATE OF OHIO FILL BACK EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 302349
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY EVENING...WITH
RADAR DISPLAYING LINGERING RAIN/MAJORITY SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NY/PA
STATE LINE...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND THE NOW PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA...WITH THIS CLEARING EXPANDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...BUT BRIEFLY AS CLOUDS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE STATE OF OHIO FILL BACK EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 302349
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THIS EVENING AS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
CARRY EASTWARD WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FAST
MOVING CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY EVENING...WITH
RADAR DISPLAYING LINGERING RAIN/MAJORITY SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE NY/PA
STATE LINE...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE SETTING SUN AND THE NOW PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE. LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAY CLEARING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ONTARIO PENINSULA...WITH THIS CLEARING EXPANDING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THIS CLEARING ASSOCIATED WITH
A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT...BUT BRIEFLY AS CLOUDS NOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE STATE OF OHIO FILL BACK EASTWARD AHEAD
OF THE NEXT CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM.

TOMORROW A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. COMPARED TO EARLIER
PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY SHIFTED A BIT
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS A RESULT NOW
KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/ MOISTURE...AND
CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS
OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW
YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING
TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY
SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE
LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR
NORTH AS THE THRUWAY CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. THE
LAST DAY OF MARCH WILL END ON ANOTHER COLD NOTE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S IN MOST PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 00Z FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY RETURNING TO VFR AS RAIN AND
WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING EASTWARD.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER...LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER VSBYS WITHIN THIS SNOW...WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AS
WELL. A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE KBUF
TERMINAL...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...JJR/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT REGION OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS FUELING A
SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY PRESENTLY FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS MODEST SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
AND LARGE-SCALE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY THE MID EVENING HOURS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
GIVEN MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OUT OF
THESE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FOUND ACROSS THE
TUG HILL AND ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AFTER THAT...EXPECT DRY AND FAIR WEATHER TO LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT...BEFORE A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COMPARED
TO EARLIER PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS
A RESULT NOW KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/
MOISTURE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO
NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT
THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER
SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS
NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE READINGS WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN REMAINING CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT ROUND OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN MORE
LOCALIZED. MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS COMMONPLACE IN MANY AREAS.

THE RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT REGION OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS FUELING A
SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY PRESENTLY FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS MODEST SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
AND LARGE-SCALE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY THE MID EVENING HOURS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
GIVEN MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OUT OF
THESE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FOUND ACROSS THE
TUG HILL AND ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AFTER THAT...EXPECT DRY AND FAIR WEATHER TO LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT...BEFORE A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COMPARED
TO EARLIER PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS
A RESULT NOW KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/
MOISTURE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO
NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT
THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER
SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS
NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE READINGS WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN REMAINING CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT ROUND OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN MORE
LOCALIZED. MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS COMMONPLACE IN MANY AREAS.

THE RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301946
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER LOW WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER
RETURNS AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A BRIEF SURGE OF
MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT REGION OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS FUELING A
SECOND ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS ACTIVITY PRESENTLY FOUND
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS MODEST SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
AND LARGE-SCALE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO FAIR AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER BY THE MID EVENING HOURS SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
GIVEN MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OUT OF
THESE SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS AND MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS FOUND ACROSS THE
TUG HILL AND ADIRONDACK FOOTHILLS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

AFTER THAT...EXPECT DRY AND FAIR WEATHER TO LARGELY PREVAIL FOR THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT...BEFORE A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. COMPARED
TO EARLIER PACKAGES...THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE HAS UNIVERSALLY
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...AND AS
A RESULT NOW KEEPS ITS NARROW REGION OF MOST IMPRESSIVE LIFT/
MOISTURE...AND CONSEQUENTLY ITS GREATEST OVERALL QPF CONFINED TO
NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY-WORTHY SNOWS OUT OF THIS HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY...WITH A PERIOD OF GENERALLY
LIGHTER SNOW NOW APPEARING TO BE A MORE LIKELY OUTCOME...WITH ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AT
THAT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE ELECTED TO PRESS THE STEADIER
SNOWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FROM OUR PREVIOUS
CONTINUITY...WITH THE BULK OF ANY SNOW AND RESULTANT ACCUMULATIONS
NOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WHERE AN INCH OR
TWO COULD ACCUMULATE NEAR THE STATE LINE. ELSEWHERE...HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SNOW TO ABOUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE THRUWAY
CORRIDOR...WITH DRY/FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FURTHER NORTH.

AS FOR TEMPS...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE READINGS WITH HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN REMAINING CONFINED TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN MOST
PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE
THE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD RUN ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL BE PRECEDED BY MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL LIFT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND MAY SPARK A STRAY RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SHOULD COME WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING SOME OF THE
WARMEST AIR WESTERN NEW YORK HAS SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GUIDANCE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO 8 TO 10C...AND
DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SSW FLOW SHOULD WARM THINGS EVEN MORE IN THE
LOWER GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP 60F. THE FRONT MAY NOT FULLY CLEAR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION AND A MODEST LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO. FLOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO KEEP NIAGARA FALLS A BIT
COOLER. 12Z NAM/GFS/GGEM/ECMWF DO BRING IN MEASURABLE QPF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH WESTERN NEW YORK IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS IS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE MORE HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS DESPITE MODEL AGREEMENT FOR QPF. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BRING STEADY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH 12Z
GFS/GGEM/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD ACCESS TO MOISTURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL
AGREEMENT GAVE US CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

AFTER THIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z
GFS PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FULLY TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND THE GGEM BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL POSITION...ALL GUIDANCE LIFTS A
WAVE ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ITS POSITION OF THE
FRONT THE ECMWF A MUCH WETTER SOLUTION...WITH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT THE MOST UNCERTAIN FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS OF FRONTAL
POSITION...THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL CHANGE
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT POSSIBLY EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS OR WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AFTER THIS A FAIRLY STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEAR OUR REGION. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...IT STILL IS A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THERE IS A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT
ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POPS NEAR THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT ROUND OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN MORE
LOCALIZED. MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS COMMONPLACE IN MANY AREAS.

THE RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WESTERLIES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODEST NORTHEASTERLIES AND NORTHERLIES WILL THEN FOLLOW TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
221 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1815Z...AFTER A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IS BREAKING OUT PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY JUST NOW PUSHING INTO EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AGAIN FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THIS
EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY. PRECIP WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

AT PRESENT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL REMAINS QUITE MILD WITH
READINGS LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID 30S
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH THESE SHOULD TEND TO DROP A
LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT A RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER INCH OR SO
THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT ROUND OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN MORE
LOCALIZED. MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS COMMONPLACE IN MANY AREAS.

THE RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301821
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
221 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1815Z...AFTER A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS IS BREAKING OUT PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY JUST NOW PUSHING INTO EXTREME FAR WESTERN NEW YORK.
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS AGAIN FOUND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. THIS
EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY. PRECIP WILL LINGER THE
LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING
CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

AT PRESENT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER STILL REMAINS QUITE MILD WITH
READINGS LARGELY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH SOME MID 30S
FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH THESE SHOULD TEND TO DROP A
LITTLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND...EXPECT A RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX TO PREDOMINATE ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH SNOW MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER INCH OR SO
THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SECOND SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT ROUND OF DEEPER LIFT AND WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL BRING A
SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR
VSBYS/CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THOUGH THESE SHOULD REMAIN MORE
LOCALIZED. MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS COMMONPLACE IN MANY AREAS.

THE RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY EARLY THIS EVENING AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PROBABLY LINGER LONGER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH THIS ESPECIALLY THE CASE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

ON TUESDAY...A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AND ATTENDANT IFR CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...WHILE FURTHER NORTH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY
VFR.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING
LIKELY.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301449
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1445Z...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND A CONSEQUENT DECREASE IN LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH LUNCHTIME. MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FOUND
ACROSS THE BALANCE OF THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER INCH OR SO
THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 301449
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1445Z...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE
AND A CONSEQUENT DECREASE IN LARGE-SCALE LIFT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH LUNCHTIME. MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FOUND
ACROSS THE BALANCE OF THE REGION...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SHOULD
SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF ANOTHER INCH OR SO
THROUGH THIS SAME TIME FRAME.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND ATTENDANT MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/JJR
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/JJR
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 301138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND A
LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP NOW ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW WET SNOW
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST
PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS
WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS TO LAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 301138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND A
LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP NOW ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW WET SNOW
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST
PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS
WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS TO LAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 301138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND A
LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP NOW ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW WET SNOW
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST
PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS
WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS TO LAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 301138
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND A
LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WITH MOST
OF THE PRECIP NOW ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. A
TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW WET SNOW
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST
PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY
DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR IN MOST AREAS
WITH SOME IFR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT THIS TO LAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MVFR
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS. SOME BRIEF IFR VSBY AND CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MIXED RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR BY EARLY EVENING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODERATELY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS COMMON ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND UP TO 35 KNOTS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 300845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA AND A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 300845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA AND A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 300845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA AND A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 300845
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND BRING A FEW
WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY ON TUESDAY WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SURGE OF MUCH WARMER AIR ARRIVES
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CROSSING THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A CONCENTRATED
AREA OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP MID LEVEL VORTICITY
MAXIMA AND A LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WHILE SNOW IS ENHANCED
FOR A FEW HOURS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S.

A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC
TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK. THE TRAILING
OCCLUDED FRONT AND INITIAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THIS MORNING...LEAVING A LULL IN LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF...LEAVING MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DRY. UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY STILL PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

THIS AFTERNOON DEEPER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
AREA ALONG WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND
LOW LEVEL TROUGH. THE DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN PRECIP AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN BE FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING AND MOISTURE
ARE MAXIMIZED. THIS EVENING PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE PULL AWAY.
PRECIP WILL LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH ONGOING CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT EVEN HERE IT
SHOULD BECOME DRY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

PRECIP TYPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE VARIED TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MILD...ESPECIALLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE PLAINS OF WESTERN NY...WITH MID 30S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND BATCH OF MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIP CROSSES THE REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT A
RAIN AND WET SNOW MIX ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY...WITH SNOW MORE
PREDOMINANT ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. LATE TODAY PRECIP TYPE SHOULD
TREND TOWARDS MORE WET SNOW AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP SOME.

THE MILD TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PREVENT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IN MOST AREAS. THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER MAY SEE A SLUSHY INCH OR SO TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE ON THE
ORDER OF 2-3 INCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION GIVEN THE HIGHER QPF AND
MORE PERSISTENT SNOW IN THAT AREA.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION TONIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING FOR A FEW HOURS.
EXPECT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN MOST AREAS WITH
SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

A COMPACT CLIPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NY LATE TONIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH SOME WINTRY MIX EVEN POSSIBLE
RIGHT NEAR THE PA STATE LINE IF THE STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE...BUT HAVE SHOWN AN OVERALL NORTHWARD TREND
WITH THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS NORTHWARD TREND IS
AIDED BY THE FACT THAT THIS WAVE IS FINALLY COMING ASHORE IN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND SHOULD BE BETTER SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.
STILL THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM AND
WRF BASED MODELS REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM AND
THE ECMWF REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SPECTRUM. A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE ONTARIO...INCLUDING BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...WHILE A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER. EITHER WAY THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL ESCAPE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM...OTHER THAN PERHAPS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...AND TAPER
OFF TO CHANCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL NEED TO DIAL THIS IN BETTER AS THE TRACK OF
THE WAVE BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

TUESDAYS TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE ALSO DEPEND ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...MAKING FOR OVERALL COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO AN ALL SNOW
EVENT FOR SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER...THE MORE EXTREME NORTH SOLUTIONS
OF THE NAM/GEM SUGGEST A BRIEF WARM NOSE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
OR FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH
THIS NORTHERLY SOLUTION...AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALL AREAS SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION COOLS THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER ANY MIXED
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER COULD
SEE UP TO 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL ALSO
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT BY MID-DAY AS THE STRONG SUN ANGLE AND
MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WORK AGAINST THE SNOWFALL.

THE CLIPPER LOW QUICKLY DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTH
COUNTRY WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE EXITING LOW...AND WITH DECREASING NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD SEE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT THE COOLING AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
HOWEVER...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL LINGER WITH SOME SLIGHT DAYTIME
MODIFICATION THROUGH SOLAR INSOLATION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION PICKS UP AND THE WINDS HELP KEEP THE LOW LEVELS
MIXED. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM
ADVECTION TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S
FOR MID LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO
THE UPPER 40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY/SATURDAY FROM THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST...AS A
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE AROUND TO KICK OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES AND TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SEEN ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. GIVEN THE
REMOTE LOCATION OF THIS WAVE AND LACK OF SAMPLING...IT IS NO WONDER
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE THE STRENGTH OF THIS WAVE
AND HOW IT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE FORECAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAVE SHOWN THE BEST
AGREEMENT YET...WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN
NEW YORK BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR A
STORM SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY / SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE DETAILS OF
WHICH ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
QUEBEC TODAY AND PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE
LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FOR THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

A FAST MOVING LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE OPEN WATERS EXIST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH A
RETURN TO LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 300539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL OF THIS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT
SNOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MAY SEE A COATING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION THERE...WITH A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY
SNOW...EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT
COULD RECEIVE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL






000
FXUS61 KBUF 300539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL OF THIS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT
SNOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MAY SEE A COATING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION THERE...WITH A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY
SNOW...EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT
COULD RECEIVE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL






000
FXUS61 KBUF 300539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL OF THIS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT
SNOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MAY SEE A COATING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION THERE...WITH A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY
SNOW...EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT
COULD RECEIVE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 300539
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...MIXED WITH RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS. ALL OF THIS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AND VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE LIGHT
SNOW WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY. MAY SEE A COATING TO AN INCH ACCUMULATION THERE...WITH A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY
SNOW...EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT
COULD RECEIVE RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE LAKE SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER
SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED WET SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
MAINLY VFR VSBY...EXCEPT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING KART WHERE
MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW MAY DROP VSBY TO MVFR AND IFR. CIGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT...WITH MVFR CIGS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WET SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AREAS OF MVFR VSBY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO PULL AWAY. ALL
AREAS WILL DRY OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY VFR.

IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS
COMMON ACROSS THE REGION AND UP TO 35 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...APFFEL







000
FXUS61 KBUF 300232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOW FROM THE PENINSULA OF
ONTARIO...WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE STATE OF OHIO. THE 00Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT 650 HPA AND
BELOW...AND EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING TO THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AS
IT ENCROACHES UPON THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY A 50-60KT LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM/SREF. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MIX PRECIPITATION TO START...WITH FALLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ RATHER
MINIMAL. LIKE MANY SPRING TIME MIX PRECIPITATION EVENTS...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THIS REGION MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WELL LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE FIRST WAVE
AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE NEAR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BOSTON HILLS. THE TUG HILL REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING PORTION OF THE TUG HILL MAY PICK UP A WET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY SNOW...EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY
INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART
AIRFIELD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A LLJ REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION PRESENTLY. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER...WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A
PORTION OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

A LLJ OF REACHING NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...BRINGING MARGINAL
LLWS TO TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR STRONGER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 300232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOW FROM THE PENINSULA OF
ONTARIO...WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE STATE OF OHIO. THE 00Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT 650 HPA AND
BELOW...AND EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING TO THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AS
IT ENCROACHES UPON THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY A 50-60KT LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM/SREF. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MIX PRECIPITATION TO START...WITH FALLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ RATHER
MINIMAL. LIKE MANY SPRING TIME MIX PRECIPITATION EVENTS...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THIS REGION MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WELL LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE FIRST WAVE
AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE NEAR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BOSTON HILLS. THE TUG HILL REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING PORTION OF THE TUG HILL MAY PICK UP A WET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY SNOW...EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY
INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART
AIRFIELD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A LLJ REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION PRESENTLY. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER...WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A
PORTION OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

A LLJ OF REACHING NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...BRINGING MARGINAL
LLWS TO TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR STRONGER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 300232
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1032 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOW FROM THE PENINSULA OF
ONTARIO...WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE STATE OF OHIO. THE 00Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT 650 HPA AND
BELOW...AND EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING TO THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AS
IT ENCROACHES UPON THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY A 50-60KT LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM/SREF. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MIX PRECIPITATION TO START...WITH FALLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ RATHER
MINIMAL. LIKE MANY SPRING TIME MIX PRECIPITATION EVENTS...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THIS REGION MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WELL LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE FIRST WAVE
AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE NEAR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BOSTON HILLS. THE TUG HILL REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING PORTION OF THE TUG HILL MAY PICK UP A WET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY SNOW...EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY
INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART
AIRFIELD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A LLJ REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION PRESENTLY. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER...WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A
PORTION OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

A LLJ OF REACHING NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...BRINGING MARGINAL
LLWS TO TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR STRONGER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 292351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOW FROM THE PENINSULA OF
ONTARIO...WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE STATE OF OHIO. THE 00Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT 650 HPA AND
BELOW...AND EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING TO THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AS
IT ENCROACHES UPON THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY A 50-60KT LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM/SREF. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MIX PRECIPITATION TO START...WITH FALLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ RATHER
MINIMAL. LIKE MANY SPRING TIME MIX PRECIPITATION EVENTS...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THIS REGION MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WELL LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE FIRST WAVE
AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE NEAR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BOSTON HILLS. THE TUG HILL REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING PORTION OF THE TUG HILL MAY PICK UP A WET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY SNOW...EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY
INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART
AIRFIELD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A LLJ REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION PRESENTLY. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER...WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A
PORTION OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

A LLJ OF REACHING NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...BRINGING MARGINAL
LLWS TO TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR STRONGER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 292351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOW FROM THE PENINSULA OF
ONTARIO...WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE STATE OF OHIO. THE 00Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT 650 HPA AND
BELOW...AND EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING TO THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AS
IT ENCROACHES UPON THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY A 50-60KT LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM/SREF. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MIX PRECIPITATION TO START...WITH FALLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ RATHER
MINIMAL. LIKE MANY SPRING TIME MIX PRECIPITATION EVENTS...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THIS REGION MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WELL LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE FIRST WAVE
AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE NEAR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BOSTON HILLS. THE TUG HILL REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING PORTION OF THE TUG HILL MAY PICK UP A WET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY SNOW...EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY
INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART
AIRFIELD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A LLJ REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION PRESENTLY. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER...WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A
PORTION OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

A LLJ OF REACHING NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...BRINGING MARGINAL
LLWS TO TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR STRONGER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 292351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOW FROM THE PENINSULA OF
ONTARIO...WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE STATE OF OHIO. THE 00Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT 650 HPA AND
BELOW...AND EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING TO THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AS
IT ENCROACHES UPON THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY A 50-60KT LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM/SREF. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MIX PRECIPITATION TO START...WITH FALLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ RATHER
MINIMAL. LIKE MANY SPRING TIME MIX PRECIPITATION EVENTS...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THIS REGION MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WELL LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE FIRST WAVE
AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE NEAR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BOSTON HILLS. THE TUG HILL REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING PORTION OF THE TUG HILL MAY PICK UP A WET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY SNOW...EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY
INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART
AIRFIELD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A LLJ REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION PRESENTLY. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER...WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A
PORTION OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

A LLJ OF REACHING NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...BRINGING MARGINAL
LLWS TO TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR STRONGER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 292351
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
751 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN.
THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A
STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE NOW FROM THE PENINSULA OF
ONTARIO...WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND THE STATE OF OHIO. THE 00Z
BUFFALO SOUNDING SHOWS A WEALTH OF DRY AIR FROM ABOUT 650 HPA AND
BELOW...AND EXPECT SOME DIMINISHING TO THE SHOWERS TO THE WEST AS
IT ENCROACHES UPON THIS DRY AIRMASS.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY A 50-60KT LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM/SREF. WILL LIKELY HAVE A MIX PRECIPITATION TO START...WITH FALLING
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ RATHER
MINIMAL. LIKE MANY SPRING TIME MIX PRECIPITATION EVENTS...HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIPITATION. EXPECT THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THIS REGION MAY
REMAIN DRY UNTIL WELL LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON THE FIRST WAVE
AS THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE NEAR. THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
AGAIN BE MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
NORTH OF I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN.
EXPECT MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND BOSTON HILLS. THE TUG HILL REGION...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING PORTION OF THE TUG HILL MAY PICK UP A WET 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT.

WITH SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE MONDAY WILL BE MAJORLY SNOW...EVEN
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. AREAS THAT COULD RECEIVE
RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY WILL BE THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE LAKE
SHORES...AND THE GENESEE VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY
INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION
ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 00Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TO START
THE TAF PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS/MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NEW YORK TAF SITES...AND ALSO THE KART
AIRFIELD OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN SEVERAL ROUNDS...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF A LLJ REACHING FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK...AND THE NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED DUE TO THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION PRESENTLY. A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW SEVERAL HOURS LATER...WITH IFR EXPECTED FOR A
PORTION OF THE REGION.

SHOWERS OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY RAIN WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE...WITH IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.

A LLJ OF REACHING NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 2K FEET WILL PASS ACROSS THE
REGION WITHIN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE...BRINGING MARGINAL
LLWS TO TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER AROUND TO
WESTERLY THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN 10 KNOTS
OR STRONGER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF
WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT. THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND POSSIBLY REQUIRE
THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR SOME SITES.

AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL









000
FXUS61 KBUF 291940
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
340 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX OF WET SNOW AND RAIN
WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF
WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH FLURRIES
OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. AFTER THIS...NAM/RGEM/GFS GUIDANCE ALL SHOW A
SHARP VORT MAX DIVING ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WITH SOME RESPONSE IN
THE QPF FIELD. THIS SHOULD SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BOSTON HILLS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE UPSLOPING WILL ENHANCE LIFT. THIS COULD
BRING ANOTHER SLUSHY INCH OR TWO TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION ELSEWHERE WHERE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD TRIM
ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF
SAINT LAWRENCE WITH A WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S.

A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. AS THE TRACK IS MORE TO THE SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...IT BECOMES MORE LIKELY THAT THE PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLIPPER WILL FALL AS SNOW. EARLY MORNING SNOW
MAY GIVE WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER IN THE DAY AS THE SNOW
INTENSITY DIMINISHES AND DYNAMIC COOLING LESSENS. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND A
GOOD PORTION OF WESTERN NY...LESSENING TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. HIGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE
30S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WIND
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL DIP A BIT DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 40 BY DAYBREAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST BRING STRONG WARM ADVECTION
TO THE AREA...HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO THE MIDDLE 50S FOR MID
LOCATIONS...NEAR 60 ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND TO THE UPPER
40S EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR...NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE
DAYS...MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS. ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS...
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND POSSIBLY REQUIRE
THE INCLUSION OF LLWS FOR SOME SITES.

AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING
SSW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THIS FLOW TENDS
NOT TO MIX WINDS ALOFT TOO WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD COME
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN A WINDS SHIFT TO THE WSW. WINDS MAY
APPROACH GALES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN
WITH FORECAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL BE CLOSE...BUT EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY JUST BELOW GALE OUTSIDE OF A FEW GUSTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL APPROACH LLWS.

AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL APPROACH LLWS.

AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 291822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL APPROACH LLWS.

AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291822
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
222 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO
EASTERN NEW YORK WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE COMPLICATED TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AHEAD OF THIS A 50-60KT
LLJ WILL ENTER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS LLJ
ACROSS INDIANA...WITH THE HRRR CAPTURING THESE SHOWERS AND
ADVECTING THEM INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 10 PM. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY 12Z NAM/RGEM GUIDANCE WHICH ALSO CAPTURE THE FEATURE
AND GENERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ABOUT THE SAME TIME.

P-TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR THIS EVENT WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES AND A THE GFS/RGEM SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
NAM. AT LEAST THIS INITIAL ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW THOUGH IT
MAY START BRIEFLY AS RAIN UNTIL THE SOUNDING COOLS EVAPORATIVELY.
THIS WILL LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO AT MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS
WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE. THIS IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN BE
MARGINAL BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...BUT DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTH OF
I-90 FROM BUF-ROC MAY TIP THE SCALE IN FAVOR OF RAIN. EXPECT
MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM SSW TO WSW. IN GENERAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NEAR THE LAKES...BUT AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER...BOSTON HILLS...AND THE TUG HILL.

WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP TONIGHT...BOTH WITH THE LLJ AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG...ITS CORE IS
BETWEEN 925-850MB WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT
LIMITED DOWNSLOPE GUSTS THIS EVENING WHEN THE FLOW IS
SOUTHERLY...BUT THESE GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE CORE OF THE
LLJ SINCE WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW AND BECOME LESS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE
LAKES...HOWEVER BUFKIT SHOWS DIMINISHING WINDS ALOFT BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES...BUT DO
EXPECT PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40-45MPH RANGE WHICH IS JUST BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER. AFTER THIS...A LLJ
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM W-E LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN HOUR OR TWO OF SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD
MOSTLY FALL AS SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBY. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD KEEP
CIGS ABOVE 3K FT. WINDS ALOFT WILL APPROACH LLWS.

AFTER THIS...A FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS. THIS IS LIKELY TO
LOWER CIGS TO MVFR-IFR WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
THE LAKES...AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE MODESTLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON...IFR/MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 291421
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM...BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AHEAD OF THIS SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP A
BIT. SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY JUST ECLIPSE THE 40F MARK...WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 291421
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM...BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AHEAD OF THIS SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP A
BIT. SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY JUST ECLIPSE THE 40F MARK...WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291421
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM...BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AHEAD OF THIS SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP A
BIT. SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY JUST ECLIPSE THE 40F MARK...WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 291421
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1021 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1000 AM...BRIGHT SUNNY SKIES WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS
MICHIGAN. THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AHEAD OF THIS SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM THINGS UP A
BIT. SOME OF THE TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY
MAY JUST ECLIPSE THE 40F MARK...WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 291129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION. UNSEASONABLE COLD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE UNDER SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY JUST ECLIPSE
THE 40F MARK. THE FULL SUNSHINE WILL LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY
WITH JUST SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION. UNSEASONABLE COLD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE UNDER SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY JUST ECLIPSE
THE 40F MARK. THE FULL SUNSHINE WILL LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY
WITH JUST SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 291129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION. UNSEASONABLE COLD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE UNDER SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY JUST ECLIPSE
THE 40F MARK. THE FULL SUNSHINE WILL LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY
WITH JUST SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 291129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
729 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY AND STILL
SUPPORT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND A LIGHT MIX
OF WET SNOW AND RAIN WITH SOME MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING WET SNOW AND RAIN TO
WESTERN NY TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF WARMING ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE RIDGE PARKED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE LOWER
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION. UNSEASONABLE COLD THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE UNDER SUNSHINE...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID
30S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY WARMER LOCATIONS IN THE GENESEE VALLEY MAY JUST ECLIPSE
THE 40F MARK. THE FULL SUNSHINE WILL LAST MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY
WITH JUST SOME HIGH/THIN CIRRUS BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO PROVINCE INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE LOW TAKING A
SIMILAR TRACK. A TRAILING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT AND FOCUS A PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. AN INITIAL LEAD
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD TO BRING A BAND OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING INTO WESTERN NY AROUND MID
EVENING THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE INITIAL AREA OF PRECIP THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
LULL...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG DPVA AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND TERRAIN INDUCED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE EAST OF BOTH LAKES ERIE
AND ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT.

PTYPE WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY
MILD OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST BAND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...
ALTHOUGH A FEW RAINDROPS MAY MIX IN ON THE LEADING EDGE. EVAPORATIVE
COOLING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO FORCE ANY INITIAL RAIN/SNOW
TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN MOST AREAS. BEHIND THE INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIP LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN AGAIN LATE
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP UPWARD THROUGH
THE 30S LATE TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS ACCUMULATIONS GO...LIMITED QPF AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY SUPPORT A SLUSHY COATING IN MOST AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
SEE AN INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION.

IT WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY
TIGHTENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD. EVAPORATE COOLING
FROM THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP MAY HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EXPECT GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH TO BE COMMON
LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO WITH TYPICAL FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKES. A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF COLD
ADVECTION AND RELATIVELY POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECT MOST OF
THE STRONGER MOMENTUM TO REMAIN ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TROUGHING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WILL MAKE FOR A SHOWERY AND COOLER DAY.
STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH / AND ACROSS WESTERN NY / BY MID-DAY MONDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO REINVIGORATE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MAKE IT BRIEFLY
MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE...THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE
BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN ANY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES IN THE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS /AND DYNAMICAL COOLING/ EXPECT SNOW WILL LIKELY
BE THE DOMINATE P-TYPE...BUT WILL NOT RULE A LITTLE RAIN MIX AT
TIMES. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF LIGHT DUSTING
UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER.

WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON MONDAY...AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. A CORE OF 40 KT WINDS AT 925 - 850 MB WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND WEAK CAA...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MIX THESE
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH COULD BE MIXED DOWN THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS...AND POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE DAY BEHIND THE VORT MAX
ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON ON MONDAY.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR CONNECTION BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 20S.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE
DIVING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA. DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE MODELS ARISE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH POSITION OF THE WAVE AS
IT PASSES BY THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM REMAINS ON THE MORE
NORTHERLY EDGE OF THE MODEL SPREAD...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS ON THE
MORE SOUTHERLY EDGE OF THAT SPREAD. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK MEANS
LESS IMPACT TO THE FORECAST AREA...SUPPRESSING THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP INTO PA...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SET UP FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE TAKEN A CONSENSUS
APPROACH TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
USING A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/EC/GEM/SREF SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW END
LIKELY POPS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH IS THE ONLY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS IMPACTED BY BOTH ENDS OF THE MODEL
SPECTRUM. OTHERWISE...POPS TAPER OFF TO CHANCE TOWARD LAKE
ONTARIO...AND NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH COUNTRY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS AGAIN TRICKY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE COLD AIR TAP IS LIMITED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE A SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE...AND THUS P-TYPE MAY BECOME DEPENDED ON
RATE / DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES. THUS HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN
A RAIN / SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SOME
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID 40S ON WEDNESDAY / WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE ONLY CERTAIN DRY DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ALOFT...TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH WELL INTO 50S / IF NOT
THE LOW 60S IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE TRADE OFF FOR THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MORE
UNSETTLED BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS OVERALL TROUGHING
LOOKS LOOKS TO BE A SURE BET. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EXACT DETAILS AND TIMING OF ANY WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
DEVELOP OUT OF THIS PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST COAST TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CLEAR
SKIES. THIN HIGH CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

THIS EVENING A SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND OCCLUDED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL APPROACH THE AREA. A NARROW ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT
ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...ENTERING
WESTERN NY AROUND 02Z THEN OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH RAIN AT THE ONSET...BUT
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE ANY MIX BACK TO ALL SNOW.
THIS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF IFR VSBY...WITH CIGS INITIALLY STAYING
MAINLY VFR. LATE TONIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AGAIN BECOME MILD
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS. BY THIS
TIME THE STEADIER PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND WEAKENED...LEAVING
MORE INTERMITTENT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBY
EAST OF THE LAKES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS...WITH GUSTS OF OVER 20 KNOTS IN MOST AREAS AND
OVER 30 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE DUE TO FUNNELING DOWN THE LAKE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AREAS OF MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION AND TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH...BUT THAT WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP
THE GREATER WAVE ACTION IN THE CANADIAN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

A MODERATELY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A RAPID INCREASE
IN SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST ON MONDAY. THE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BRING AT LEAST HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO THE OPEN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING
AROUND 30 KNOTS ON BOTH LAKES. THE GFS REMAINS STRONGER THAN THE NAM
OR CANADIAN GEM GUIDANCE...AND IF IT WERE TO VERIFY LOW END GALES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY. FOR NOW
WE HAVE PEAKED THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS WITH A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






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