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000
FXUS61 KBUF 130817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
317 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. BITTER COLD AIR WILL COMBINE WITH A NOTICEABLE WIND TO
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALSO GENERATE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES...ALTHOUGH FRESH ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY. THE FRIGID POLAR AIR WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM ZERO TO 5 BELOW FOR AREAS INLAND OF THE
LAKES...WITH LAKESHORE AREAS ONLY REACHING AROUND 5 ABOVE.
INSTABILITY FROM THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE WIDE OPEN LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LAKE SNOWS.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LAKE SNOWS TODAY...WITH
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FROM EASTERN MONROE COUNTY TO OSWEGO COUNTY
OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER OFF LAKE ERIE. THE EXTREMELY COLD AIRMASS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
LARGE DENDRITIC GROWTH WITH LOT OF VERY SMALL FLAKES NOT BEING
VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING. OVERALL...THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO AND 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

THE BITTER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50
BELOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED OVER THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE DAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH
MODEST WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON ITS BACKSIDE. AFTER A BITTERLY
COLD START TO THE DAY WHEN DANGEROUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE A FRIGID DAY OVERALL.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE FROM ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TO THE FIVE TO TEN ABOVE RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REST
OF THE REGION...WITH THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE PERHAPS SEEING READINGS
BREAK INTO THE TEENS.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL STILL ALLOW FOR SOME
NUISANCE-TYPE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AT THE
START OF THE DAY...WITH THESE THEN GRADUALLY FADING OUT WHILE
LIFTING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY OFF LAKE ERIE TO DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE DURING THE MORNING...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LES GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TO JUST A FEW SPOTTY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY BY THE END OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
NATURE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS...A CAPPING INVERSION AT AROUND 3-4 KFT...
AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR BELOW THIS...EXPECT THE LINGERING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF FLUFF. OUTSIDE OF THE DIMINISHING LAKE EFFECT...
CONDITIONS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DRY WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LARGELY DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ANY LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ENDING ALTOGETHER
IN THE EVENING...AND THE NEXT PACIFIC-ORIGIN TROUGH REMAINING TOO
FAR TO OUR WEST TO BRING ANYTHING MORE THAN A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TO CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN EVENING LOWS RANGING SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT BOTH
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE WIND
CHILL HEADLINE CRITERIA.

AFTER THAT...OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC-BASED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE NATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SLOWLY INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AS IT ENCROACHES UPON OUR REGION...
FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS A DEVELOPING ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
EITHER ALONG OR SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUING TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR NOW HAVE ELECTED TO STICK VERY CLOSE
TO OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...WHICH CURRENTLY
LIES CLOSER TO A MODEL CONSENSUS SYSTEM TRACK. WITH RESPECT TO PTYPE...
EXPECT THE PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING...BEFORE GOING BACK OVER TO
ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED BROAD WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALLOW OUR TEMPS TO RECOVER BACK TO LEVELS
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL /MID 20S-LOWER 30S/ ON MONDAY...BEFORE READINGS
FINALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MEANWHILE AT NIGHT...LOWS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRAILING TUESDAY/S SYSTEM...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW IN PLACE...ALONG WITH SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF BY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO OUR REGION...WITH ANY PRECIP LIKELY
CHANGING OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WARMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GENERATE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW FOR SITES SUCH AS KDKK... KJHW
AND KELZ AND ALSO IN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM KROC TO KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST INTO EITHER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY
DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

AN INCOMING FRIGID AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH BRISK WINDS AND WILL
RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR
WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH NEAR
RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE SOME
CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ006-012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/SMITH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1230 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.
BITTER COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A
NOTICEABLE WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALSO
GENERATE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...ALTHOUGH FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS OF
06Z. FRIGID POLAR AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES TO
TUMBLE TO BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE INSTABILITY
FROM THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE WIDE OPEN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME LAKE SNOWS.

THE LAKE SNOWS WERE CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS
INTO THE TYPICAL LAKE SNOWBELTS. INCREASED SHEAR AND A SHORTER FETCH
WILL MAKE THIS ACTIVITY MORE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...AND AS THE MID
LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
INTENSITY OF SAID LAKE BANDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. DESPITE THIS...
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH POWDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (KROC TO OSWEGO
CO). WILL THUS LEAVE THE CURRENT LAKE SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FROM EASTERN MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE TO SEE IF CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT `FLAGS` HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL
RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...
WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE
END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW FOR SITES SUCH AS KDKK...
KJHW AND KELZ AND ALSO IN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM KROC TO KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ006-012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7
         AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130530
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1230 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.
BITTER COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A
NOTICEABLE WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALSO
GENERATE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...ALTHOUGH FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SETTLING SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS OF
06Z. FRIGID POLAR AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES TO
TUMBLE TO BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK...WHILE INSTABILITY
FROM THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE WIDE OPEN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME LAKE SNOWS.

THE LAKE SNOWS WERE CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS
INTO THE TYPICAL LAKE SNOWBELTS. INCREASED SHEAR AND A SHORTER FETCH
WILL MAKE THIS ACTIVITY MORE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...AND AS THE MID
LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
INTENSITY OF SAID LAKE BANDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. DESPITE THIS...
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH POWDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (KROC TO OSWEGO
CO). WILL THUS LEAVE THE CURRENT LAKE SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FROM EASTERN MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE TO SEE IF CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT `FLAGS` HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL
RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...
WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE
END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW FOR SITES SUCH AS KDKK...
KJHW AND KELZ AND ALSO IN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM KROC TO KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ006-012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7
         AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130405
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.
BITTER COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A
NOTICEABLE WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALSO
GENERATE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...ALTHOUGH FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AS OF 04Z THIS EVENING. FRIGID POLAR AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL
ENCOURAGE TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK... WHILE INSTABILITY FROM THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE
WIDE OPEN LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LAKE SNOWS.

THE LAKE SNOWS WERE CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS
INTO THE TYPICAL LAKE SNOWBELTS. INCREASED SHEAR AND A SHORTER FETCH
WILL MAKE THIS ACTIVITY MORE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...AND AS THE MID
LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
INTENSITY OF SAID LAKE BANDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. DESPITE THIS...
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH POWDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (KROC TO OSWEGO
CO). WILL THUS LEAVE THE CURRENT LAKE SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FROM EASTERN MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE TO SEE IF CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT `FLAGS` HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL
RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...
WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE
END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW FOR SITES SUCH AS KDKK...
KJHW AND KELZ AND ALSO IN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM KROC TO KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130322
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1022 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON FOR THE WEEKEND.
BITTER COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A
NOTICEABLE WIND TO PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES
THROUGH AT LEST SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALSO
GENERATE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...ALTHOUGH FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES
AS OF 03Z THIS EVENING. FRIGID POLAR AIR IN ITS WAKE WILL ENCOURAGE
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE TO BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK...
WHILE INSTABILITY FROM THE BITTER COLD AIR OVER THE WIDE OPEN LAKES
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME LAKE SNOWS.

THE LAKE SNOWS WERE CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PUSHES ACROSS OUR
REGION...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS
INTO THE TYPICAL LAKE SNOWBELTS. INCREASED SHEAR AND A SHORTER FETCH
WILL MAKE THIS ACTIVITY MORE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...AND AS THE MID
LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE IS STRIPPED AWAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
INTENSITY OF SAID LAKE BANDS WILL DIMINISH AS WELL. DESPITE THIS...
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH POWDER CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO (KROC TO OSWEGO
CO). WILL THUS LEAVE THE CURRENT LAKE SNOW WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE SNOWS ON
SATURDAY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FROM EASTERN MONROE COUNTY TO
OSWEGO COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN TIER. THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO RE-EXAMINE TO SEE IF CURRENT LAKE
EFFECT `FLAGS` HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL
RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...
WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE
END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WHILE VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN SNOW FOR SITES SUCH AS KDKK...
KJHW AND KELZ AND ALSO IN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM KROC TO KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130054
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOUBLE BAND STRUCTURE OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE PLUME THAT AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEAST TO KROC. AS THIS
BAND CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE LAKE...IT
WILL LOSE ITS SOURCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO A
DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALSO END
THE RISK FOR ELECTRIFICATION. AS WE PUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING OVER THE STILL WIDE OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LIFT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WITHIN 20 MILES OF THAT FEATURE.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW FOUND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 00Z WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND
YES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND -10C HGTS ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
(15K FT AND 3-4K FT RESPECTIVELY).

THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT CAN BE `SEEN` ON CANADIAN RADARS AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO THE NRN LAKE
SHORE AS OF 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KBUF AND KROC AROUND
03Z...AND CONTINUING ITS PUSH SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER BY ABOUT 05Z
(MIDNIGHT).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW
BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL STILL BE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THOUGH...WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS FOUND IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KART THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND KJHW/KELZ FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...IMPACTING KJHW AND SITES BETWEEN KROC AND
KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130054
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOUBLE BAND STRUCTURE OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE PLUME THAT AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEAST TO KROC. AS THIS
BAND CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE LAKE...IT
WILL LOSE ITS SOURCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO A
DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALSO END
THE RISK FOR ELECTRIFICATION. AS WE PUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING OVER THE STILL WIDE OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LIFT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WITHIN 20 MILES OF THAT FEATURE.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW FOUND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 00Z WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND
YES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND -10C HGTS ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
(15K FT AND 3-4K FT RESPECTIVELY).

THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT CAN BE `SEEN` ON CANADIAN RADARS AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO THE NRN LAKE
SHORE AS OF 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KBUF AND KROC AROUND
03Z...AND CONTINUING ITS PUSH SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER BY ABOUT 05Z
(MIDNIGHT).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW
BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL STILL BE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THOUGH...WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS FOUND IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KART THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND KJHW/KELZ FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...IMPACTING KJHW AND SITES BETWEEN KROC AND
KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 130054
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
754 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOUBLE BAND STRUCTURE OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE PLUME THAT AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEAST TO KROC. AS THIS
BAND CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE LAKE...IT
WILL LOSE ITS SOURCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO A
DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALSO END
THE RISK FOR ELECTRIFICATION. AS WE PUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING OVER THE STILL WIDE OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LIFT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WITHIN 20 MILES OF THAT FEATURE.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW FOUND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 00Z WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND
YES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND -10C HGTS ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
(15K FT AND 3-4K FT RESPECTIVELY).

THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT CAN BE `SEEN` ON CANADIAN RADARS AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO THE NRN LAKE
SHORE AS OF 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KBUF AND KROC AROUND
03Z...AND CONTINUING ITS PUSH SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER BY ABOUT 05Z
(MIDNIGHT).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW
BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL STILL BE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THOUGH...WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS FOUND IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KART THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND KJHW/KELZ FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...IMPACTING KJHW AND SITES BETWEEN KROC AND
KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130008
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOUBLE BAND STRUCTURE OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE PLUME THAT AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEAST TO KROC. AS THIS
BAND CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE LAKE...IT
WILL LOSE ITS SOURCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO A
DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALSO END
THE RISK FOR ELECTRIFICATION. AS WE PUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING OVER THE STILL WIDE OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LIFT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WITHIN 20 MILES OF THAT FEATURE.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW FOUND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 00Z WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND
YES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND -10C HGTS ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
(15K FT AND 3-4K FT RESPECTIVELY).

THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT CAN BE `SEEN` ON CANADIAN RADARS AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO THE NRN LAKE
SHORE AS OF 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KBUF AND KROC AROUND
03Z...AND CONTINUING ITS PUSH SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER BY ABOUT 05Z
(MIDNIGHT).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW
BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL STILL BE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THOUGH...WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS FOUND IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KART THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND KJHW/KELZ FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...IMPACTING KJHW AND SITES BETWEEN KROC AND
KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 130008
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOUBLE BAND STRUCTURE OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE PLUME THAT AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEAST TO KROC. AS THIS
BAND CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE LAKE...IT
WILL LOSE ITS SOURCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO A
DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALSO END
THE RISK FOR ELECTRIFICATION. AS WE PUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING OVER THE STILL WIDE OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LIFT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WITHIN 20 MILES OF THAT FEATURE.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW FOUND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 00Z WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND
YES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND -10C HGTS ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
(15K FT AND 3-4K FT RESPECTIVELY).

THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT CAN BE `SEEN` ON CANADIAN RADARS AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO THE NRN LAKE
SHORE AS OF 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KBUF AND KROC AROUND
03Z...AND CONTINUING ITS PUSH SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER BY ABOUT 05Z
(MIDNIGHT).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW
BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL STILL BE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THOUGH...WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS FOUND IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KART THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND KJHW/KELZ FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...IMPACTING KJHW AND SITES BETWEEN KROC AND
KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 130008
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOUBLE BAND STRUCTURE OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON HAS SINCE CONSOLIDATED INTO A SINGLE PLUME THAT AT 00Z
EXTENDED FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEAST TO KROC. AS THIS
BAND CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE LAKE...IT
WILL LOSE ITS SOURCE OF INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO A
DRAMATIC WEAKENING OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD ALSO END
THE RISK FOR ELECTRIFICATION. AS WE PUSH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
BITTERLY COLD AIR POURING OVER THE STILL WIDE OPEN WATERS OF THE
LAKE ON A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PRODUCE MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
LIFT ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE FOCUSING THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
WITHIN 20 MILES OF THAT FEATURE.

OFF LK ONTARIO...A SINGLE PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE SNOW FOUND
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 00Z WILL SHIFT SOUTH
AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO 300 IN THE WAKE
OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE
FOUND WITHIN THE HEART OF THE BAND BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT...AND
YES...THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR SOME THUNDER/LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY AS LAKE EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AND -10C HGTS ARE BOTH FAVORABLE
(15K FT AND 3-4K FT RESPECTIVELY).

THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT CAN BE `SEEN` ON CANADIAN RADARS AND
SFC OBSERVATIONS...MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TO THE NRN LAKE
SHORE AS OF 00Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH DURING THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH KBUF AND KROC AROUND
03Z...AND CONTINUING ITS PUSH SOUTH OF THE PA BORDER BY ABOUT 05Z
(MIDNIGHT).

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR WILL RUSH
IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON
AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE WARNING WORTHY WIND
CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW
BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT... WITH
SNOW SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AS WELL. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL STILL BE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS THOUGH...WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS FOUND IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT KART THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...AND KJHW/KELZ FOR THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A BITTER COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEING EXPECTED. MEANWHILE...IFR VSBYS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES...IMPACTING KJHW AND SITES BETWEEN KROC AND
KSYR.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006-
     012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/RSH/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 122152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
452 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ERIE...A DOUBLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OVER
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHTOWNS THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE BANDS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES.  UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT T-5 INCHES IN THE NORTHTOWNS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THEN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES...THE BAND WILL BEGIN HEADING SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A
BURST OF SNOW ACROSS METRO BUFFALO...POINTS EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHTOWNS AS STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES DEPENDENT ON LAKE EFFECT RESIDENCE TIME.
ONCE THE BAND IS ON THE MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE AND WEAKEN.

GIVEN AN ELEVATED WEAK CAP IN THE VCNTY OF 15K FT AND A -10C
ISOTHERM LEVEL A FEW THOUSAND FEET...THUNDER WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BUF METRO AREA. DUAL POL
RADAR IS SUGGESTING GRAUPEL UP THROUGH 4K FT...WHICH WOULD FIT THE
THERMAL PROFILE BEING ADVERTISED BY 19Z GUISDANCE PACAKGES. THIS
ESSENTIAL P-TYPE FOR INITIATING ELECTRIFICATION WILL HAVE A DEEP
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE DEPTH TO SEPARATE SAID CHARGE. THIS POTENTIAL WILL
BE FURTHER INCRASED IN THE BUF AREA BY THE LOCALIZED STRONG
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE `S` TRANSITION ZONE OF THE INITIAL NORTHERN
LES BAND BEING REPLACED BY A NEW BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF BUFFALO. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING WILL DIMINISH AS WE PUSH THROUGH THE EVENING
AND DEEPENING COLD AIR LIMITS THE SUPPORT FOR GRAUPEL PRODUCTION.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ONTARIO...THERE ARE ALSO TWO BANDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTHERN ONE BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING
THE NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
A MUCH WEAKER ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY.  AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES...THESE BANDS...SIMILAR TO
THE ERIE BANDS...WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...INTENSIFYING BRIEFLY WITH THE FULL FETCH OF THE
LAKE...AND CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND QUICKLY FALL APART.

ARCTIC FRONT...THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS OVER
ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND ITS TIMED TO ROUGHLY REACH KBUF AROUND 9PM
AND KROC AROUND 10PM...GIVE OR TAKE AND HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION WHITEOUT EVENT BUT LAST UNDER AN HOUR. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT MERGE...BUT EXPECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST TO ALSO SEE A
BRIEF BURST OF WHITEOUT-WORTHY SNOW...THEN EXPECT THE SQUALL TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHORT DURATION EVENT MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO...POSSIBLY 3 IF IT
IS HEAVY AND LONG-LASTING ENOUGH.  AGAIN...IN UNDER AN HOURS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DOUBLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT EVENT NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND AS IT HEAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
LABELED AS A SQUALL AND WILL AFFECT KIAG...KBUF...AND KROC...AT
ROUGHLY THE TIMES DENOTED WITHIN THE TAFS...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR
OR SO. EXPECT THE SQUALL TO LAST UNDER AN HOUR...BUT WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW AS IT PASSES. THERE LESS
CONFIDENCE AS HOW STRONG THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TOWARD THE PA LINE...SO KART
AND KJHW DO NOT HAVE A SQUALL MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

SPEAKING OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE TWO BANDS HERE AS WELL...WITH
THE PRIMARY NORTHERN BAND BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING THE
NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  A WEAKER
ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY.  THESE BANDS TOO WILL
CONSOLIDATE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...STRENGTHEN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHER LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BETWEEN
01-03Z IN CONCERT OR JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE IT WILL
THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE LAKE CONNECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REORGANIZE AS THE FLOW BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A WEAKER MULTIBANDED SNOW EVENT SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND
THE GEORGIAN BAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. CIGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY BORDERLINE MVFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 122039
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ERIE...A DOUBLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OVER
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHTOWNS THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE BANDS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES.  UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT T-5 INCHES IN THE NORTHTOWNS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THEN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES...THE BAND WILL BEGIN HEADING SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A
BURST OF SNOW ACROSS METRO BUFFALO...POINTS EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHTOWNS AS STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES DEPENDENT ON LAKE EFFECT RESIDENCE TIME.
ONCE THE BAND IS ON THE MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE AND WEAKEN.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ONTARIO...THERE ARE ALSO TWO BANDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTHERN ONE BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING
THE NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
A MUCH WEAKER ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY.  AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES...THESE BANDS...SIMILAR TO
THE ERIE BANDS...WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...INTENSIFYING BRIEFLY WITH THE FULL FETCH OF THE
LAKE...AND CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND QUICKLY FALL APART.

ARCTIC FRONT...THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS OVER
ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND ITS TIMED TO ROUGHLY REACH KBUF AROUND 9PM
AND KROC AROUND 10PM...GIVE OR TAKE AND HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION WHITEOUT EVENT BUT LAST UNDER AN HOUR. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT MERGE...BUT EXPECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST TO ALSO SEE A
BRIEF BURST OF WHITEOUT-WORTHY SNOW...THEN EXPECT THE SQUALL TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHORT DURATION EVENT MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO...POSSIBLY 3 IF IT
IS HEAVY AND LONG-LASTING ENOUGH.  AGAIN...IN UNDER AN HOURS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DOUBLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT EVENT NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND AS IT HEAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
LABELED AS A SQUALL AND WILL AFFECT KIAG...KBUF...AND KROC...AT
ROUGHLY THE TIMES DENOTED WITHIN THE TAFS...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR
OR SO. EXPECT THE SQUALL TO LAST UNDER AN HOUR...BUT WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW AS IT PASSES. THERE LESS
CONFIDENCE AS HOW STRONG THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TOWARD THE PA LINE...SO KART
AND KJHW DO NOT HAVE A SQUALL MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

SPEAKING OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE TWO BANDS HERE AS WELL...WITH
THE PRIMARY NORTHERN BAND BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING THE
NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  A WEAKER
ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY.  THESE BANDS TOO WILL
CONSOLIDATE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...STRENGTHEN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHER LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BETWEEN
01-03Z IN CONCERT OR JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE IT WILL
THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE LAKE CONNECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REORGANIZE AS THE FLOW BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A WEAKER MULTIBANDED SNOW EVENT SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND
THE GEORGIAN BAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. CIGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY BORDERLINE MVFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 122039
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ERIE...A DOUBLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OVER
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHTOWNS THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE BANDS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES.  UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT T-5 INCHES IN THE NORTHTOWNS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THEN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES...THE BAND WILL BEGIN HEADING SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A
BURST OF SNOW ACROSS METRO BUFFALO...POINTS EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHTOWNS AS STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES DEPENDENT ON LAKE EFFECT RESIDENCE TIME.
ONCE THE BAND IS ON THE MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE AND WEAKEN.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ONTARIO...THERE ARE ALSO TWO BANDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTHERN ONE BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING
THE NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
A MUCH WEAKER ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY.  AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES...THESE BANDS...SIMILAR TO
THE ERIE BANDS...WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...INTENSIFYING BRIEFLY WITH THE FULL FETCH OF THE
LAKE...AND CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND QUICKLY FALL APART.

ARCTIC FRONT...THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS OVER
ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND ITS TIMED TO ROUGHLY REACH KBUF AROUND 9PM
AND KROC AROUND 10PM...GIVE OR TAKE AND HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION WHITEOUT EVENT BUT LAST UNDER AN HOUR. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT MERGE...BUT EXPECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST TO ALSO SEE A
BRIEF BURST OF WHITEOUT-WORTHY SNOW...THEN EXPECT THE SQUALL TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHORT DURATION EVENT MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO...POSSIBLY 3 IF IT
IS HEAVY AND LONG-LASTING ENOUGH.  AGAIN...IN UNDER AN HOURS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DOUBLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT EVENT NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND AS IT HEAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
LABELED AS A SQUALL AND WILL AFFECT KIAG...KBUF...AND KROC...AT
ROUGHLY THE TIMES DENOTED WITHIN THE TAFS...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR
OR SO. EXPECT THE SQUALL TO LAST UNDER AN HOUR...BUT WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW AS IT PASSES. THERE LESS
CONFIDENCE AS HOW STRONG THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TOWARD THE PA LINE...SO KART
AND KJHW DO NOT HAVE A SQUALL MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

SPEAKING OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE TWO BANDS HERE AS WELL...WITH
THE PRIMARY NORTHERN BAND BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING THE
NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  A WEAKER
ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY.  THESE BANDS TOO WILL
CONSOLIDATE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...STRENGTHEN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHER LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BETWEEN
01-03Z IN CONCERT OR JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE IT WILL
THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE LAKE CONNECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REORGANIZE AS THE FLOW BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A WEAKER MULTIBANDED SNOW EVENT SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND
THE GEORGIAN BAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. CIGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY BORDERLINE MVFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 122039
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
339 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH AS A POWERFUL
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THIS EVENING.  A TRULY
BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES AS WELL.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
LATER SUNDAY AND BRING BOTH AN END TO LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONABLE WINTER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ERIE...A DOUBLE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS OVER
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER NORTHTOWNS THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE BANDS SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES.  UNTIL THAT TIME...EXPECT T-5 INCHES IN THE NORTHTOWNS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THEN AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES...THE BAND WILL BEGIN HEADING SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A
BURST OF SNOW ACROSS METRO BUFFALO...POINTS EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHTOWNS AS STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION. THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES DEPENDENT ON LAKE EFFECT RESIDENCE TIME.
ONCE THE BAND IS ON THE MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE AND WEAKEN.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ONTARIO...THERE ARE ALSO TWO BANDS OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE NORTHERN ONE BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING
THE NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
A MUCH WEAKER ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY.  AS THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES...THESE BANDS...SIMILAR TO
THE ERIE BANDS...WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...INTENSIFYING BRIEFLY WITH THE FULL FETCH OF THE
LAKE...AND CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AND QUICKLY FALL APART.

ARCTIC FRONT...THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS OVER
ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND ITS TIMED TO ROUGHLY REACH KBUF AROUND 9PM
AND KROC AROUND 10PM...GIVE OR TAKE AND HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION WHITEOUT EVENT BUT LAST UNDER AN HOUR. IT
WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND THE ARCTIC
FRONT MERGE...BUT EXPECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST TO ALSO SEE A
BRIEF BURST OF WHITEOUT-WORTHY SNOW...THEN EXPECT THE SQUALL TO
WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHORT DURATION EVENT MAY DROP AN INCH OR TWO...POSSIBLY 3 IF IT
IS HEAVY AND LONG-LASTING ENOUGH.  AGAIN...IN UNDER AN HOURS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO EASE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT -27C OVER
BUFFALO AND AROUND -35C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WHEN LOOKING AT
THIS FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STAND POINT THESE TEMPERATURES ARE OVER 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN OBSERVED BEFORE
WITHIN THE 30 YEAR CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM REANALYSIS PERIOD. SPC
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR 14/00Z SHOWS THAT -27C WILL BE NEARLY 5C
COLDER THAN THE DAILY MIN GOING BACK TO 1948. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.
VENTURING OUT IN THESE CONDITIONS IN NOT RECOMMENDED BUT IF YOU
NEED TO THEN LEAVE NO SKIN EXPOSED AS FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOCALLY ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OR LESS AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD LOWS TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST WHILE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY. WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE BELOW
ZERO BUT NOT WITHIN THE RANGE OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC BASED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AS MODELS SHOW
THIS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS
WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO OUR EAST THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES NEAR THE
CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CNY WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. TEMPERATURES UNDER A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FINALLY RECOVER BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON TUESDAY THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK WILL HELP SURFACE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING
MIDDAY WHERE ANY MORNING LIGHT SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SOME
RAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
STORM TRACK. TRAILING THIS SYSTEM A WEAK CLIPPER OR SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES FOR MIDWEEK. SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FOR WED-
THURSDAY WITH ANY LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS TAPERING OFF THEN
LATE IN THE WEEK A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS
POSSIBLE WITH A SNOW TO RAIN CHANGEOVER AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DOUBLE BANDED LAKE EFFECT EVENT NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SINGLE BAND AS IT HEAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS
LABELED AS A SQUALL AND WILL AFFECT KIAG...KBUF...AND KROC...AT
ROUGHLY THE TIMES DENOTED WITHIN THE TAFS...GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR
OR SO. EXPECT THE SQUALL TO LAST UNDER AN HOUR...BUT WITH NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND BLOWING SNOW AS IT PASSES. THERE LESS
CONFIDENCE AS HOW STRONG THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TOWARD THE PA LINE...SO KART
AND KJHW DO NOT HAVE A SQUALL MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.

SPEAKING OF LAKE ONTARIO...THERE ARE TWO BANDS HERE AS WELL...WITH
THE PRIMARY NORTHERN BAND BEING FED BY LAKE ERIE AND HUGGING THE
NORTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  A WEAKER
ONE WITH LESS FETCH IS OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY.  THESE BANDS TOO WILL
CONSOLIDATE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...STRENGTHEN FOR A FEW
HOURS...THEN CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHER LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES BETWEEN
01-03Z IN CONCERT OR JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE IT WILL
THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE LAKE CONNECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REORGANIZE AS THE FLOW BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A WEAKER MULTIBANDED SNOW EVENT SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND
THE GEORGIAN BAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. CIGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES
WILL BE GENERALLY BORDERLINE MVFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...WITH
NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BELOW ARE
SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE POINT
TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE FROM
MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY
FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST OF
STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-
     019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ZAFF
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...AR/ZAFF
MARINE...SMITH/ZAFF
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
117 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ERIE...THE LAKE BAND HAS CONTINUED A SLOW
MIGRATION TO THE NORTH AND MAY MOVE ANOTHER 5 OR SO MILES NORTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING AND HEADING BACK SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 OR SO MILES WIDE AND
CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTY
LINES...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT GENERAL AREA
OF 4-7 INCHES...WHILE AREAS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE NARROW
BAND WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES...THE BAND WILL BEGIN HEADING SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A
BURST OF SNOW ACROSS METRO BUFFALO...POINTS EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHTOWNS AS STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION. THESE AREAS SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES DEPENDENT ON LAKE EFFECT RESIDENCE TIME.
ONCE THE BAND IS ON THE MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE AND WEAKEN. PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO BAND WILL ALSO INCREASINGLY MOVE CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY
OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ONTARIO...THIS BAND HAS HIT THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH LESS FETCH...HAS WEAKENED SOME.
EXPECT THIS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED
STATE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...UNTIL THE ARCTIC
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS BAND WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...INTENSIFYING BRIEFLY WITH THE FULL FETCH OF
THE LAKE...AND CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY FALL APART.

ARCTIC FRONT...THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS
OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND ITS TIMED TO ROUGHLY REACH KBUF AROUND
8PM AND KROC AROUND 9PM...GIVE OR TAKE AND HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION WHITEOUT EVENT BUT LAST UNDER AN
HOUR. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND
THE ARCTIC FRONT MERGE...BUT EXPECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST TO
ALSO SEE A BRIEF BURST OF WHITEOUT-WORTHY SNOW...THEN EXPECT THE
SQUALL TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHORT DURATION EVENT MAY DROP AN INCH OR
TWO...POSSIBLY 3 IF IT IS HEAVY AND LONG-LASTING ENOUGH.
AGAIN...IN UNDER AN HOURS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEFORE
SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -30C
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES
TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST
SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED ITS
NORTHERN EXTENT. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO HEAD SOUTH. THE BAND IS ABOUT 15 MILES
WIDE...BUT WITH SUB 1/4MI VISIBILITY IN THE BAND. BEHIND
THIS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
ONTARIO BAND TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND
MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SUB-ONE HOUR PERIOD OF ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
AS IT CROSSES WESTERN NY...ANYWHERE FROM 00Z-02Z ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FROM 01-03Z OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE BAND IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE HEADING SOUTH AND STRENGTHENING FOR A TIME AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND WILL CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHER LAKE
ONTARIO COUNTIES BETWEEN 01-03Z IN CONCERT OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE LAKE
CONNECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REORGANIZE AS THE FLOW
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A MULTIBANDED SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND SOME WEAK CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND THE GEORGIAN
BAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. CIGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY BORDERLINE MVFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...AR/JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
117 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ERIE...THE LAKE BAND HAS CONTINUED A SLOW
MIGRATION TO THE NORTH AND MAY MOVE ANOTHER 5 OR SO MILES NORTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING AND HEADING BACK SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 OR SO MILES WIDE AND
CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTY
LINES...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT GENERAL AREA
OF 4-7 INCHES...WHILE AREAS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE NARROW
BAND WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES...THE BAND WILL BEGIN HEADING SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A
BURST OF SNOW ACROSS METRO BUFFALO...POINTS EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHTOWNS AS STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION. THESE AREAS SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES DEPENDENT ON LAKE EFFECT RESIDENCE TIME.
ONCE THE BAND IS ON THE MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE AND WEAKEN. PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO BAND WILL ALSO INCREASINGLY MOVE CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY
OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ONTARIO...THIS BAND HAS HIT THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH LESS FETCH...HAS WEAKENED SOME.
EXPECT THIS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED
STATE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...UNTIL THE ARCTIC
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS BAND WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...INTENSIFYING BRIEFLY WITH THE FULL FETCH OF
THE LAKE...AND CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY FALL APART.

ARCTIC FRONT...THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS
OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND ITS TIMED TO ROUGHLY REACH KBUF AROUND
8PM AND KROC AROUND 9PM...GIVE OR TAKE AND HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION WHITEOUT EVENT BUT LAST UNDER AN
HOUR. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND
THE ARCTIC FRONT MERGE...BUT EXPECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST TO
ALSO SEE A BRIEF BURST OF WHITEOUT-WORTHY SNOW...THEN EXPECT THE
SQUALL TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHORT DURATION EVENT MAY DROP AN INCH OR
TWO...POSSIBLY 3 IF IT IS HEAVY AND LONG-LASTING ENOUGH.
AGAIN...IN UNDER AN HOURS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEFORE
SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -30C
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES
TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST
SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED ITS
NORTHERN EXTENT. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO HEAD SOUTH. THE BAND IS ABOUT 15 MILES
WIDE...BUT WITH SUB 1/4MI VISIBILITY IN THE BAND. BEHIND
THIS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
ONTARIO BAND TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND
MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SUB-ONE HOUR PERIOD OF ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
AS IT CROSSES WESTERN NY...ANYWHERE FROM 00Z-02Z ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FROM 01-03Z OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE BAND IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE HEADING SOUTH AND STRENGTHENING FOR A TIME AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND WILL CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHER LAKE
ONTARIO COUNTIES BETWEEN 01-03Z IN CONCERT OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE LAKE
CONNECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REORGANIZE AS THE FLOW
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A MULTIBANDED SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND SOME WEAK CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND THE GEORGIAN
BAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. CIGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY BORDERLINE MVFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...AR/JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 121817
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
117 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES...FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC
FRONT...THEN BONE CHILLING COLD AIR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF
NORTHWEST FLOW. DETAILS ON EACH ITEM BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ERIE...THE LAKE BAND HAS CONTINUED A SLOW
MIGRATION TO THE NORTH AND MAY MOVE ANOTHER 5 OR SO MILES NORTH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING AND HEADING BACK SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE BAND SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 OR SO MILES WIDE AND
CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THE NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTY
LINES...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT GENERAL AREA
OF 4-7 INCHES...WHILE AREAS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE NARROW
BAND WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES...THE BAND WILL BEGIN HEADING SOUTH AND MAY PRODUCE A
BURST OF SNOW ACROSS METRO BUFFALO...POINTS EAST...AND EVENTUALLY
THE SOUTHTOWNS AS STARTS TO CROSS THE REGION. THESE AREAS SHOULD
SEE GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES DEPENDENT ON LAKE EFFECT RESIDENCE TIME.
ONCE THE BAND IS ON THE MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS
CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE AND WEAKEN. PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN LAKE
ONTARIO BAND WILL ALSO INCREASINGLY MOVE CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY
OVER THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...MORE ON THAT BELOW.

WSW LAKE EFFECT - ONTARIO...THIS BAND HAS HIT THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND WITH LESS FETCH...HAS WEAKENED SOME.
EXPECT THIS TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENED
STATE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...UNTIL THE ARCTIC
FRONT ARRIVES. THIS BAND WILL ALSO HEAD SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION...INTENSIFYING BRIEFLY WITH THE FULL FETCH OF
THE LAKE...AND CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY FALL APART.

ARCTIC FRONT...THE FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON OBSERVATIONAL DATASETS
OVER ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND ITS TIMED TO ROUGHLY REACH KBUF AROUND
8PM AND KROC AROUND 9PM...GIVE OR TAKE AND HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION WHITEOUT EVENT BUT LAST UNDER AN
HOUR. IT WILL BE A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND AND
THE ARCTIC FRONT MERGE...BUT EXPECT AREAS FROM ABOUT KROC EAST TO
ALSO SEE A BRIEF BURST OF WHITEOUT-WORTHY SNOW...THEN EXPECT THE
SQUALL TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHORT DURATION EVENT MAY DROP AN INCH OR
TWO...POSSIBLY 3 IF IT IS HEAVY AND LONG-LASTING ENOUGH.
AGAIN...IN UNDER AN HOURS TIME.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...COLD AIR
WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30MPH
AT TIMES. DEPENDENT ON AREA TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL PRODUCE
WARNING WORTHY WIND CHILLS...WITH MANY PLACES COLDER THAN 20 BELOW
AND AND NEAR 40 BELOW BY THE END OF SATURDAY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT...WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREAS FROM ABOUT WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTIES...BUT THE COLD
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES. FOR
LAKE ERIE...THERE WILL BE A HURON CONNECTION...BUT IT WILL BE
FOCUSED TOWARD ERIE PA...AND ONLY GRAZE THE NY/PA BORDER TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD BE A CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY TOO.
THIS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AT
TIMES...BUT ITS TRANSIENT NATURE TOGETHER WITH THE NEAR RECORD
COLD AIRMASS WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO AN INCH OR SO...PERHAPS
2 IN A FEW PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION BEFORE
SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR -30C
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES
TO 10 BELOW TO 20 BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER
LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST
SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE
NUMBERS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE ARE DANGEROUS
VALUES...WITH A STRONGLY WORDED WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING
AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED ITS
NORTHERN EXTENT. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO HEAD SOUTH. THE BAND IS ABOUT 15 MILES
WIDE...BUT WITH SUB 1/4MI VISIBILITY IN THE BAND. BEHIND
THIS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
ONTARIO BAND TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...AND
MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A SUB-ONE HOUR PERIOD OF ZERO VISIBILITY CONDITIONS
AS IT CROSSES WESTERN NY...ANYWHERE FROM 00Z-02Z ACROSS THE
NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FROM 01-03Z OVER THE GENESEE VALLEY. THERE IS
LESS CONFIDENCE ON HOW IT WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

SPEAKING OF LAKE ONTARIO...THE LAKE BAND IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS BEFORE HEADING SOUTH AND STRENGTHENING FOR A TIME AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND WILL CRASH ACROSS THE SOUTHER LAKE
ONTARIO COUNTIES BETWEEN 01-03Z IN CONCERT OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT...WHERE IT WILL THEN WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF THE LAKE
CONNECTION.

LATER TONIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL REORGANIZE AS THE FLOW
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A MULTIBANDED SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND SOME WEAK CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON AND THE GEORGIAN
BAY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE. CIGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY BORDERLINE MVFR FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHEAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE MORE SNOW AND LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...AR/JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121620
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1120 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SINGLE PLUME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING
AFTER A LITTLE SHAKE TO THE SOUTH.

...LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A CONTINUED NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING BAND
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH ITS NORTHERN EXTEND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BAND SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 OR SO MILES WIDE PROBABLY
STRADDLE THE NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTY LINES...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT GENERAL AREA OF 4-7 INCHES. THE
BAND MAY BEGIN TO EDGE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES.

...LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND
REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER SNOW RATES
ARE EXPECTED WHEN COMPARED TO LAKE ERIE WITH A LONGER FETCH AND
UPSTREAM ERIE CONNECTIONS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS TOPPING OUT NEAR 8
INCHES...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF...WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER
MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
OVERNIGHT.

...THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE A SHORT /SUB HOUR/ DURATION WHITE-OUT
EVENT...

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LOOK GOOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
COMBINED ARCTIC FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE
MARGINALLY ADVISORY- WORTHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE
POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST CERTAINTY IN SUCH
AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. STRONGLY
WORDED WIND CHILL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING SHIFTING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD. WITH THE LAKE BAND NOW
IMPACTING THE KBUF AIRPORT CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO
IFR/LIFR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. FURTHER TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...THE LAKE
BAND HAS ALL BUT SHIFTED NORTH OF KART ALOWING FOR IMPROVED CIGS
AND VSBY. OTHERWISE...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT
ARRIVES.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
PLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z WEST AND 04Z EAST. EXPECT
CONTINUED LIFR/IFR WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK
SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF. THE SQUALL WILL LIKELY LAST UNDER AN HOUR AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION...BUT COULD PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF HIGHER WNW WINDS
AND ZERO VISIBILITY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...AR/JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121457
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SINGLE PLUME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ARE MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING
AFTER A LITTLE SHAKE TO THE SOUTH.

...LAKE ERIE...EXPECT A CONTINUED NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHENING BAND
THAT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH ITS NORTHERN EXTEND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BAND SHOULD BE ABOUT 15 OR SO MILES WIDE PROBABLY
STRADDLE THE NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTY LINES...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON IN THAT GENERAL AREA OF 4-7 INCHES. THE
BAND MAY BEGIN TO EDGE SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES.

...LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND
REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVIER SNOW RATES
ARE EXPECTED WHEN COMPARED TO LAKE ERIE WITH A LONGER FETCH AND
UPSTREAM ERIE CONNECTIONS...WITH ACCUMULATIONS TOPPING OUT NEAR 8
INCHES...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF...WHICH WILL
ALSO BRING A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LIGHTER
MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN
SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES
OVERNIGHT.

...THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY BE A SHORT /SUB HOUR/ DURATION WHITE-OUT
EVENT...

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES LOOK GOOD.

ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE
COMBINED ARCTIC FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE
MARGINALLY ADVISORY- WORTHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE
POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST CERTAINTY IN SUCH
AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. STRONGLY
WORDED WIND CHILL WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING
IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD TO
THE VCNTY OF KBUF/KIAG/KART THIS MORNING...THEN REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING DUE OWING TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY
BE IFR/LIFR IN THE MIGRATING/INTENSIFYING LAKE BANDS TODAY...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL
PLOW ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z WEST AND 04Z EAST. EXPECT
CONTINUED LIFR/IFR WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK
SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ITSELF. THE SQUALL WILL LIKELY LAST UNDER AN HOUR AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION...BUT COULD PRODUCE A SHORT PERIOD OF HIGHER WNW WINDS
AND ZERO VISIBILITY.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/ZAFF
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121216
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
716 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12Z...THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SUNK A BIT BACK SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES AND WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THEIR STATE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HAVE AGAIN
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BRING IT IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS...AS WELL
AS BUMP UP EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT EAST OF LAKE
ERIE BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY TRANSPIRED THE LAST 3-4 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CURRENT LAKE SNOWS OVER
AND JUST EAST OF THE LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THEIR INLAND
EXTENT AND INTENSIFYING IN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGER-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT.

WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 230 DEGREES...THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BUFFALO
SUBURBS AND NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN LINGER IN THESE SAME
GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SETTLING BACK
SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS VEER AGAIN WITH THE CLOSE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BRING A
QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH LIGHTER MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...AND AS MUCH AS
12-20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
THE LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. THE ONLY REAL LES
HEADLINE CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR OSWEGO COUNTY TO A WARNING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOWER-END WARNING-CRITERIA
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE MIGRATING INTENSE LAKE SNOWS...
ARCTIC FROPA...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COMBINED ARCTIC
FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST
CERTAINTY IN SUCH AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. FOR THIS REASON...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING
IN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD TO
THE VCNTY OF KBUF/KIAG/KART THIS MORNING...THEN REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING DUE OWING TO AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO PRIMARILY
BE IFR/LIFR IN THE MIGRATING/INTENSIFYING LAKE BANDS TODAY...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AT THAT TIME. EXPECT CONTINUED LIFR/IFR
WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121212
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
712 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12Z...THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SUNK A BIT BACK SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES AND WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THEIR STATE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HAVE AGAIN
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BRING IT IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS...AS WELL
AS BUMP UP EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT EAST OF LAKE
ERIE BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY TRANSPIRED THE LAST 3-4 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CURRENT LAKE SNOWS OVER
AND JUST EAST OF THE LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THEIR INLAND
EXTENT AND INTENSIFYING IN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGER-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT.

WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 230 DEGREES...THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BUFFALO
SUBURBS AND NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN LINGER IN THESE SAME
GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SETTLING BACK
SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS VEER AGAIN WITH THE CLOSE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BRING A
QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH LIGHTER MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...AND AS MUCH AS
12-20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
THE LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. THE ONLY REAL LES
HEADLINE CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR OSWEGO COUNTY TO A WARNING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOWER-END WARNING-CRITERIA
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE MIGRATING INTENSE LAKE SNOWS...
ARCTIC FROPA...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COMBINED ARCTIC
FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST
CERTAINTY IN SUCH AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. FOR THIS REASON...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN CURRENTLY
MODEST BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES AS OF 09Z LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO THE VCNTY OF KBUF/KIAG/KART THIS MORNING...THEN REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING DUE OWING TO
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR/LIFR IN THE MIGRATING/INTENSIFYING LAKE BANDS TODAY...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AT THAT TIME. EXPECT CONTINUED LIFR/IFR
WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121212
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
712 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 12Z...THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SUNK A BIT BACK SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN ERIE AND NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES AND WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THEIR STATE OF A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HAVE AGAIN
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BRING IT IN LINE WITH THESE TRENDS...AS WELL
AS BUMP UP EXPECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A BIT EAST OF LAKE
ERIE BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY TRANSPIRED THE LAST 3-4 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CURRENT LAKE SNOWS OVER
AND JUST EAST OF THE LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THEIR INLAND
EXTENT AND INTENSIFYING IN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGER-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT.

WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 230 DEGREES...THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BUFFALO
SUBURBS AND NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN LINGER IN THESE SAME
GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SETTLING BACK
SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS VEER AGAIN WITH THE CLOSE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BRING A
QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH LIGHTER MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...AND AS MUCH AS
12-20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
THE LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. THE ONLY REAL LES
HEADLINE CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR OSWEGO COUNTY TO A WARNING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOWER-END WARNING-CRITERIA
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE MIGRATING INTENSE LAKE SNOWS...
ARCTIC FROPA...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COMBINED ARCTIC
FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST
CERTAINTY IN SUCH AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. FOR THIS REASON...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN CURRENTLY
MODEST BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES AS OF 09Z LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO THE VCNTY OF KBUF/KIAG/KART THIS MORNING...THEN REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING DUE OWING TO
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR/LIFR IN THE MIGRATING/INTENSIFYING LAKE BANDS TODAY...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AT THAT TIME. EXPECT CONTINUED LIFR/IFR
WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 121043
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
543 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1040Z...HAVE ISSUED AN INTERMEDIATE UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LAKE ERIE SNOWS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAVING DEVELOPED FURTHER NORTHWARD AND
GAINED INTENSITY FASTER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. THESE WILL BRING A
GOOD SHOT OF SNOW WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION TO THE BUFFALO
AREA OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER
NORTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CURRENT LAKE SNOWS OVER
AND JUST EAST OF THE LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THEIR INLAND
EXTENT AND INTENSIFYING IN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGER-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT.

WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 230 DEGREES...THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BUFFALO
SUBURBS AND NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN LINGER IN THESE SAME
GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SETTLING BACK
SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS VEER AGAIN WITH THE CLOSE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BRING A
QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH LIGHTER MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...AND AS MUCH AS
12-20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
THE LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. THE ONLY REAL LES
HEADLINE CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR OSWEGO COUNTY TO A WARNING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOWER-END WARNING-CRITERIA
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE MIGRATING INTENSE LAKE SNOWS...
ARCTIC FROPA...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COMBINED ARCTIC
FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST
CERTAINTY IN SUCH AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. FOR THIS REASON...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN CURRENTLY
MODEST BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES AS OF 09Z LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO THE VCNTY OF KBUF/KIAG/KART THIS MORNING...THEN REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING DUE OWING TO
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR/LIFR IN THE MIGRATING/INTENSIFYING LAKE BANDS TODAY...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AT THAT TIME. EXPECT CONTINUED LIFR/IFR
WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 120935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CURRENT LAKE SNOWS OVER
AND JUST EAST OF THE LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THEIR INLAND
EXTENT AND INTENSIFYING IN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGER-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT.

WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 230 DEGREES...THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BUFFALO
SUBURBS AND NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN LINGER IN THESE SAME
GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SETTLING BACK
SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS VEER AGAIN WITH THE CLOSE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BRING A
QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH LIGHTER MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...AND AS MUCH AS
12-20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
THE LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. THE ONLY REAL LES
HEADLINE CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR OSWEGO COUNTY TO A WARNING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOWER-END WARNING-CRITERIA
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE MIGRATING INTENSE LAKE SNOWS...
ARCTIC FROPA...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COMBINED ARCTIC
FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST
CERTAINTY IN SUCH AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. FOR THIS REASON...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN CURRENTLY
MODEST BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES AS OF 09Z LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO THE VCNTY OF KBUF/KIAG/KART THIS MORNING...THEN REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING DUE OWING TO
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR/LIFR IN THE MIGRATING/INTENSIFYING LAKE BANDS TODAY...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AT THAT TIME. EXPECT CONTINUED LIFR/IFR
WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 120935
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
435 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...LAKE SNOWS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS AND INTENSIFY
TODAY...BEFORE BEING SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE FRONT ITSELF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH THE FRONT ALSO BRINGING A MORE
GENERAL BURST OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...
A TRULY BONE CHILLING AIRMASS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROPPING TO DANGEROUSLY LOW VALUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY...WHILE PIVOTING ITS TRAILING ARCTIC
COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM ALSO PROVIDING DEEPENING SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE AND
ACTING TO ERODE AWAY THE CAPPING INVERSION CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN
5 AND 7 KFT. ALL OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CURRENT LAKE SNOWS OVER
AND JUST EAST OF THE LAKES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THEIR INLAND
EXTENT AND INTENSIFYING IN THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGER-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT.

WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BACKING TO AROUND 230 DEGREES...THE LAKE ERIE
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BUFFALO
SUBURBS AND NIAGARA/ORLEANS COUNTIES BY MIDDAY...WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO
LAKE SNOWS SHOULD LIFT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY AND THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS WILL THEN LINGER IN THESE SAME
GENERAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE SETTLING BACK
SOUTHWARD TO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS VEER AGAIN WITH THE CLOSE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL ALSO BRING A
QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH LIGHTER MULTIBANDED NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THEN SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...A FAVORABLE FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES...
LAKE EQL LEVELS RISING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KFT...AND AN ADDED BOOST
PROVIDED BY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS EAST OF BOTH LAKES STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW
EXPECTED IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...AND AS MUCH AS
12-20 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
THE LAKE SNOWS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT TODAY. THE ONLY REAL LES
HEADLINE CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO UPGRADE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
FOR OSWEGO COUNTY TO A WARNING FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...WHEN THIS AREA COULD ALSO SEE SOME LOWER-END WARNING-CRITERIA
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE MIGRATING INTENSE LAKE SNOWS...
ARCTIC FROPA...AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES FOR MONROE-NORTHERN
CAYUGA COUNTIES STILL LOOK GOOD FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE COMBINED ARCTIC
FRONT/INTENSE LAKE SNOW BAND TONIGHT. WHILE MARGINALLY ADVISORY-WORTHY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT...FORECAST
CERTAINTY IN SUCH AMOUNTS IS STILL NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE DEFERRED ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE OTHER MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL THE ARRIVAL OF A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE ZERO TO FIVE
BELOW RANGE ACROSS MOST AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS FALLING TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BRISK WINDS...THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY /AS DISCUSSED BELOW/. FOR THIS REASON...
WIND CHILL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
BEFORE SLIDING EAST ON SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR
-30C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND TO NEAR -32C ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO 10 BELOW TO 20
BELOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN
TIER...AND PERHAPS EVEN COLDER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR STARTING TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EASE UP INTO THE SINGLE NUMBERS TO NEAR 10
ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS WILL PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 20 BELOW TO 35 BELOW...TO AS COLD AS 50 BELOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. THESE DANGEROUS VALUES WILL
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE
AREAS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND RUNNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS TIME WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY JUST A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES AS THE INCOMING AIR MASS WILL BE DRYING AND WILL BE
TOO COLD FOR LARGER DENDRITES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY...RESULTING IN CURRENTLY
MODEST BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES AS OF 09Z LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO THE VCNTY OF KBUF/KIAG/KART THIS MORNING...THEN REMAINING
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE ALSO INTENSIFYING DUE OWING TO
AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE
TO IFR/LIFR IN THE MIGRATING/INTENSIFYING LAKE BANDS TODAY...WHILE
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...INTENSE LAKE SNOWS WILL GET
SHUNTED BACK SOUTHWARD BY THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION AT THAT TIME. EXPECT CONTINUED LIFR/IFR
WITHIN THE LAKE SNOWS AS THEY SHIFT BACK SOUTHWARD...AS WELL AS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE GENERAL LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF.

BEHIND THE FRONT...ADDITIONAL MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
SET UP ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE THESE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE
HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS THAT PRECEDED THEM...THESE WILL STILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHILE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES THAT WILL LAST
INTO EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDENT UPON LOCATION. FOR MORE
SPECIFICS ON THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH/
WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION BELOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ON BOTH LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO...FOR WHICH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL BE IN
PLACE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-
     008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 120425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY TO A TRANSIENT SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS BREAK IN
THE ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...FOR ONCE THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW DROPPING OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED LATE TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO RE-DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL FLOW OF AROUND 250 DEGREES
SHOULD FOCUS SNOWS ACROSS ERIE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT BY A LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO BE FOUND ABOVE 850MB. THUS AM ONLY EXPECTING
AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PICK UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AIDING
THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS...PARTICULARLY AS FLOW BACKS TO 240
DEGREES...INCREASING THE FETCH DOWN LAKE ERIE AND SHARPENING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. BY LUNCHTIME WE
COULD EASILY BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR. UPSTREAM
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SNOWFALL
FOCUSING IN ON THE AREA FROM WATERTOWN TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS. WITH
CONVERGENCE SHARPENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WE MAY
SEE SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW WILL FURTHER JEOPARDIZE TRAVEL AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ALL TOLD...WE MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. AS MUCH AS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY THE
END OF THE DAY.

AS NASTY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ONSHORE WITH
FRONTAL FORCING ALSO PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL.
THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND A QUICK ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE
POTENTIALLY RAPID DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS...A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN THE WARNINGS FOR THE ONGOING LES. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING SHALLOW MULTIBAND
LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE 10 ALONG THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE INCREASING WINDS WILL TEMPER THIS COMPARATIVE
WARMUP WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
AROUND ZERO. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS CRASHING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE SOME LIMITED MODERATION. LOWS THERE WILL
/ONLY/ BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THAT WILL NOT BE
MUCH COMFORT HOWEVER AS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREAK IN
ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL
KART WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY. BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RAPIDLY DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SQUALLS PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VSBYS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THUS A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THE LAKES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRIGID ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 120425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY TO A TRANSIENT SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS BREAK IN
THE ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...FOR ONCE THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW DROPPING OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED LATE TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO RE-DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL FLOW OF AROUND 250 DEGREES
SHOULD FOCUS SNOWS ACROSS ERIE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT BY A LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO BE FOUND ABOVE 850MB. THUS AM ONLY EXPECTING
AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PICK UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AIDING
THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS...PARTICULARLY AS FLOW BACKS TO 240
DEGREES...INCREASING THE FETCH DOWN LAKE ERIE AND SHARPENING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. BY LUNCHTIME WE
COULD EASILY BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR. UPSTREAM
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SNOWFALL
FOCUSING IN ON THE AREA FROM WATERTOWN TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS. WITH
CONVERGENCE SHARPENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WE MAY
SEE SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW WILL FURTHER JEOPARDIZE TRAVEL AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ALL TOLD...WE MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. AS MUCH AS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY THE
END OF THE DAY.

AS NASTY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ONSHORE WITH
FRONTAL FORCING ALSO PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL.
THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND A QUICK ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE
POTENTIALLY RAPID DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS...A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN THE WARNINGS FOR THE ONGOING LES. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING SHALLOW MULTIBAND
LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE 10 ALONG THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE INCREASING WINDS WILL TEMPER THIS COMPARATIVE
WARMUP WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
AROUND ZERO. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS CRASHING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE SOME LIMITED MODERATION. LOWS THERE WILL
/ONLY/ BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THAT WILL NOT BE
MUCH COMFORT HOWEVER AS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREAK IN
ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL
KART WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY. BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RAPIDLY DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SQUALLS PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VSBYS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THUS A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THE LAKES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRIGID ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 120425
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING THANKS MAINLY TO A TRANSIENT SURFACE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS BREAK IN
THE ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...FOR ONCE THE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKES IN
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW DROPPING OUT OF
NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED LATE TONIGHT...LOOK
FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TO RE-DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. INITIAL FLOW OF AROUND 250 DEGREES
SHOULD FOCUS SNOWS ACROSS ERIE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL BE LIMITED INITIALLY LATE TONIGHT BY A LACK OF DEEPER
MOISTURE WITH LITTLE TO BE FOUND ABOVE 850MB. THUS AM ONLY EXPECTING
AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST THROUGH DAYBREAK.

SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PICK UP AS WE MOVE INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE AIDING
THE LAKE EFFECT PROCESS...PARTICULARLY AS FLOW BACKS TO 240
DEGREES...INCREASING THE FETCH DOWN LAKE ERIE AND SHARPENING SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE LAKE. BY LUNCHTIME WE
COULD EASILY BE SEEING SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR. UPSTREAM
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM LAKE ERIE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY
FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH SNOWFALL
FOCUSING IN ON THE AREA FROM WATERTOWN TO THE THOUSAND ISLANDS. WITH
CONVERGENCE SHARPENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WE MAY
SEE SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND RESULTANT
BLOWING SNOW WILL FURTHER JEOPARDIZE TRAVEL AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. ALL TOLD...WE MAY SEE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES
ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SUBURBS OF ROCHESTER. AS MUCH AS A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY BY THE
END OF THE DAY.

AS NASTY AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN FURTHER AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS ONSHORE WITH
FRONTAL FORCING ALSO PRODUCING A SYNOPTIC COMPONENT TO THE SNOWFALL.
THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY INTENSE SNOW SQUALLS THAT
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND A QUICK ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION OF SEVERAL INCHES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN
THE EVENING. GIVEN THE TIMING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE AND THE
POTENTIALLY RAPID DEGRADATION OF CONDITIONS...A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE
THAT ARE NOT ALREADY IN THE WARNINGS FOR THE ONGOING LES. COLD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINGERING SHALLOW MULTIBAND
LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT...THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD NIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS...WITH READINGS JUST ABOVE 10 ALONG THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
SOUTHERN SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO. READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE INCREASING WINDS WILL TEMPER THIS COMPARATIVE
WARMUP WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE TO
AROUND ZERO. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS CRASHING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. AREAS IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL SEE SOME LIMITED MODERATION. LOWS THERE WILL
/ONLY/ BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THAT WILL NOT BE
MUCH COMFORT HOWEVER AS THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE
MINUS 15 TO MINUS 20 RANGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS HAVE LARGELY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A
FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS. THE BREAK IN
ACTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
OVERHEAD AND FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL
KART WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY. BANDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLIP SOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL RAPIDLY DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 02Z-06Z SAT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW
SQUALLS PRODUCING NEAR ZERO VSBYS AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF
THE LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST INTO SATURDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. THUS A WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE ONTARIO FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THE LAKES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A FRIGID ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ003>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
         EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 120040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFFECT SNOWS ARE CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING KROC/KJHW...THESE
CONDITIONS SHOUDL IMPROVE AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.

THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AN FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL KART
WITH CONDITIONS DETRIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 120040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFFECT SNOWS ARE CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING KROC/KJHW...THESE
CONDITIONS SHOUDL IMPROVE AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.

THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AN FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL KART
WITH CONDITIONS DETRIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 120040
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
740 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFFECT SNOWS ARE CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE RIDGING IS ENCROACHING ON THE REGION. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW BANDS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...INCLUDING KROC/KJHW...THESE
CONDITIONS SHOUDL IMPROVE AS THE BANDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
EVENING.

THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD
AN FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...THIS TIME TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. BY 09-12Z...LES WILL BE AFFECTING THE KBUF/KIAG AS WELL KART
WITH CONDITIONS DETRIORATING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR AT
KBUF/KART BY AROUND 15Z WITH VSBYS DROPPING BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE
AT TIMES. THE HEART OF THE BAND MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KIAG...THOUGH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THERE
BETWEEN 15Z-20Z.

BANDS WILL ROUGHLY MAINTAIN THEIR POSITION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOUND WITHIN THE BANDS NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITH MVFR
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE LES ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
PERIODS OF IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 112304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
604 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT
IN LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL
WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS




000
FXUS61 KBUF 112304
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
604 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT
IN LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL
WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.CLIMATE...

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE DROPPING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING COLD LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BELOW ARE SOME CLIMATE STATS AND RECORDS REGARDING THIS WEEKEND. ONE
POINT TO NOTE IS BOTH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE
FROM MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT...THUS RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS WILL NOT BE
LIKELY FOR OUR THREE CLIMATE SITES SATURDAY OWING TO THE FORECAST
OF STILL LOW DOUBLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AS WE CROSS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

BUFFALO:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -10F FEBRUARY 15TH AND 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -9F 1914
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -13F 1943

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 5F 1899
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 5F 1979

ROCHESTER:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -11F FEBRUARY 20TH AND 21ST

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -12F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -14F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 9F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: 6F 1979

WATERTOWN:

COLDEST TEMPERATURES LAST WINTER:  -36F FEBRUARY 16TH

RECORD LOW SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: -28F 1979
RECORD LOW SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -30F 1979

RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SATURDAY FEBRUARY 13TH: 1F 1979
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM SUNDAY FEBRUARY 14TH: -1F 1979

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH
CLIMATE...THOMAS





000
FXUS61 KBUF 112059
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SHIFTING NARROW BUT INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS.
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NARROW MULTI-BANDED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE
LAKES INTO THIS EVENING UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. LAKE EFFECT
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM FOR CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-
3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

KBUF RADAR AT 3PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 7PM. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO
MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE LAKE SNOWS.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE
WINDS BEGIN TO LIFT THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHWARD. A WARNING HERE
EXTENDS THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY.

THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS UPSLOPING OFF THE
EAST END OF THE LAKE DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES
WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER
OF THE REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...A GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SHIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE NIGHT. THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REACHING THE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL
REGION BY DAYBREAK. THE GRADUAL INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS
TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR
NORTHWARD MIGRATION. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THESE WILL COME LATER FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND LAKE INSTABILITY INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
ARCTIC FRONT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW SET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES BEGINNING AT 4AM. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.

FRIDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO AS LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REBOUND BACK ABOVE 10KFT
THROUGH THE DAY. BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT PROFILES FOR POINTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKES SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE WITHIN THE
UNSTABLE LAYER WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSE BUT NARROW BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED AND INCH OR
TWO PER HOUR WITHIN THE CENTER OF THESE NARROW BANDS. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE BANDS ALSO WILL BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BANDS WILL LIFT THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF
THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN METRO AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE THEY
WILL STALL FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING QUICKLY SHOVED BACK SOUTH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

NEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER FROM EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TO COVER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THE LAKE ERIE BAND AS IT
RETURNS SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH AND BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT...AND FOR JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES TO COVER FOR THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW TOTAL
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE COULD EASILY PUSH 5-10 INCHES ACROSS THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA AND 10-20 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
AROUND THE WATERTOWN METRO AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S WITH THE HELP OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND QUICK SHOT OF AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK FRIDAY EVENING
WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT EAST OF THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
QUICKLY PLUMMET THROUGH THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BEHIND THIS
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POST ARCTIC FRONT...THE BIG STORY OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES THAT BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.

A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS 850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C
AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB
ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE
COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM MINUS 5 NEAR THE LAKESHORES TO MINUS 15 TO 20 INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER AND WELL INTO THE
NEGATIVE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL "WARM" INTO
SINGLE NUMBERS. THESE COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH THE WIND TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF MINUS 20 TO MINUS 35...CERTAINLY INTO THE
WARNING CRITERIA. THOSE AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER
LAKES MAY ONLY SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MINUS TEENS...ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. STILL A WIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST THEN NORTH NORTHWEST.

DESPITE THE EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY
DRY AND TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LIFTS ALONG THE EAST COAST MIDWEEK
WITH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WENT WITH SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR MID-LATE FEBRUARY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT
IN LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE
SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z FRIDAY THEN LIFTING
NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL
WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE
RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN
LONG TERM...LEVAN
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 111843
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN A MULTIBANDED ORIENTATION DUE
TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR AT 1PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE IN CHECK BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION... WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN
3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SLOWLY
MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT... WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY DAYBREAK. WHILE A
CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY
ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE
BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING
THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z
FRIDAY THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 111843
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
143 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES THIS AFTERNOON IN A MULTIBANDED ORIENTATION DUE
TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT AS THE
CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR AT 1PM SHOWS MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS ARE BEGINNING TO SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS
CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE IN CHECK BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION... WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN
3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE BANDS SLOWLY
MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT... WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE LAKE
ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY DAYBREAK. WHILE A
CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY
ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE
BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING
THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE
DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
NOTEWORTHY UPTICK IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS AND
MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN BY 12Z
FRIDAY THEN LIFTING NORTH INTO THESE CITIES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. EXPECT
IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE SNOWS...WITH GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING
TEMPO IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIGS WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM 1 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111601
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1101 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY. TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS BUFFALO AND
WATERTOWN AREAS. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR/JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...LEVAN/TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 111529
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 111529
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY IN A MULTIBANDED
ORIENTATION DUE TO SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE SNOWS SOME FROM WHAT WE SAW
LAST NIGHT AS THE CAPPING INVERSION LOWERS TO AROUND 8KFT.

KBUF RADAR SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION EXTENDING FROM NIAGARA COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN
ERIE...GENESEE AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD BRING IT ACROSS METRO
BUFFALO AND INTO WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND COULD BRING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSE SNOWS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY AND A QUICK FRESH
COATING OF MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS OF
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE
COUNTIES WHERE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NIAGARA EAST TO MONROE COUNTIES FROM THESE
LAKE SNOWS.

FURTHER SOUTH...LAKE SNOWS HAVE LARGELY SETTLED SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW NEAR ERIE WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH
IS WHY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DESPITE
THIS THE CURRENT LULL IN ACTIVITY.

KTYX RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL NARROW BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IMPACTING NORTHEAST WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTY
WHICH MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE
ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH DRIFTING ACROSS JEFFERSON
AND LEWIS COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD ONLY BRING UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
THROUGH TODAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ISSUING A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AREAS NEAR THE LAKESHORES MAY ONLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
HOWEVER NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL/LEVAN
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 111152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150Z...THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SAFELY EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE LES WARNING THERE.

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT
SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
REMAINING SNOWS TO COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...WITH
THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...
THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 111152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150Z...THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SAFELY EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE LES WARNING THERE.

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT
SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
REMAINING SNOWS TO COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...WITH
THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...
THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 111152
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
652 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1150Z...THE LAKE SNOWS HAVE SAFELY EXITED TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...SO HAVE DROPPED THE LES WARNING THERE.

A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT
SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
REMAINING SNOWS TO COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN
GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...WITH
THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...
THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 110847
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
347 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
WINDS WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
OUT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE LAKE SNOWS LIFTING NORTHWARD TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN
AREAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT ITSELF WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WHILE BRINGING A BURST OF SNOW
TO MOST AREAS... WITH DOWNRIGHT FRIGID CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILLS THEN FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0845Z...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN BANDS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF BOTH LAKES...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
ACTIVITY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY WHERE A FAIRLY INTENSE
SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS STATED...CHANGES ARE ALREADY AFOOT...AS REGIONAL RADARS
ARE SHOWING THE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BANDS NOW
DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO...IN RESPONSE
TO SUBTLE VEERING OF THE STEERING WINDS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ATTENDANT ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH.

THROUGH SUNRISE...CONTINUED GRADUAL VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SEND THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SNOWS SOUTHWARD INTO CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES...WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BECOME MORE
MULTIBANDED WHILE AT THE SAME TIME LINKING UP WITH A DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. MEANWHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO TEND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG ITS WHOLE LENGTH...WITH THE
CORE OF THE CURRENT BAND MOVING BACK INTO THE WAYNE-N CAYUGA-SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR...AND ADDITIONAL /AND LIKELY MORE MULTIBANDED/
LAKE SNOWS REDEVELOPING FROM NIAGARA TO MONROE COUNTIES.

GIVEN THE ABOVE TRENDS...WE WILL BE DROPPING THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES FOR WYOMING AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES WITH THIS PACKAGE...AS
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL BE OUT OF THESE AREAS BY 4 AM.
WHILE WE ALSO CONSIDERED DROPPING THE EXISTING LES WARNING FOR SOUTHERN
ERIE COUNTY WITH THIS PACKAGE...WILL HOLD ONTO THAT HEADLINE FOR AT
LEAST A BIT LONGER...UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT THE HEAVIER LAKE SNOWS
HAVE CLEARED THAT REGION FOR GOOD. THIS STATED...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS WARNING BY AROUND SUNRISE.

ONCE WE GET INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW OF COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LAKE SNOWS EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKES TODAY...WITH THESE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MULTIBANDED IN
NATURE DUE TO THE RESULTANT SHORTER FETCH ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TO COME DURING THE FIRST PART OF TODAY...
WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY SHRINKING UP SOME AND WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...
THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND EVENTUALLY A LOWERING CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH THE LOWERING INVERSION MOST COMING INTO PLAY ACROSS
LAKE ERIE AND WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO. IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA AND
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND ACROSS THE WAYNE-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS TODAY. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT
LESSER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR TODAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN THIS REGION MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MONROE COUNTY. GIVEN THESE...THE EXISTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS
FOR THE ABOVE REGIONS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS...THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION WILL JUST EXPERIENCE MUCH LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED
TRANSIENT LAKE AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...WITH
ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL
BE COLD AND ON THE BRISK SIDE AGAIN...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY
RANGING FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN TO THE MID
TEENS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENING...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING HELD MORE
IN CHECK BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION...
WHICH WILL RUN BETWEEN 3 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ERIE...AND WILL DROP
TO BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KFT OFF LAKE ONTARIO. AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL
BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE LAKE
BANDS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...
WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND
THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY
DAYBREAK. WHILE A CONTINUED LOWER CAP AND INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW IT SHOULD KEEP THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS FROM BECOMING TERRIBLY ORGANIZED...THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
FETCH ACROSS BOTH LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME INCREASE
IN STRENGTH LATE...ENOUGH FOR THE BANDS TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THEIR NORTHWARD MIGRATION.
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THESE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHEN
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND A RISING CAP OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NOTEWORTHY UPTICK
IN BAND ORGANIZATION...MORE ON WHICH IS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION BELOW.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS...EXPECT A QUIET AND LARGELY DRY NIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE 5 TO 10 ABOVE RANGE ELSEWHERE. GIVEN A DEVELOPING
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME...THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE SNOWS WILL REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BACKS
TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA
AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING ARCTIC BOUNDARY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL
ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EARLY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE...EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. THE RGEM ALONG WITH THE
NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST A STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO BUFFALO METRO AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. FAVORABLE
LAKE PARAMETERS WILL EXIST WITH PLENTY OF OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY AS
INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACH 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST
FLOW...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS WYOMING AND
GENESEE COUNTIES...AND EVEN PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS NIAGARA AND
ORLEANS COUNTIES IF THE FLOW CAN BACK ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO
MOISTURE FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT ALSO MOISTURE FROM
WHATEVER FORMS OFF LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN
LEWIS COUNTY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
FORECAST TO RISE TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH ZONE SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS. WILL MAINTAIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
AND ADD LEWIS COUNTY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS
REACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY EVENING...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AND ATTENDANT IFR/LIFR WILL BE FOUND EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS AND MUCH MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS OF THE DAY TO
COME THIS MORNING...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DIMINISHING UPSTREAM CONNECTIONS...THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT...AND A LOWERING CAPPING INVERSION.

FROM THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT... GRADUAL BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WESTERLY AND
THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WEAKER LAKE SNOWS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD...WITH
THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY REACHING THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS...AND THE
LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS REACHING THE TUG HILL REGION BY 12Z
FRIDAY. EXPECT IFR/MVFR TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE MIGRATING LAKE
SNOWS...WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS THE RULE ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST/NORTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...OTHERWISE MVFR/VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID
AIRMASS FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY
HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
     NIGHT FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 110405
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1105 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A NEARLY STEADY STATE LAKE EFFECT BAND REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS BAND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...DROPPING SEVERAL MORE INCHES ALONG THE
NIAGARA/ORLEANS/MONROE SHORELINE NORTH OF 104. THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AS A SHARPLY AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT
...CONSEQUENTLY SHIFTING THE FOCUS OF SYNOPTIC LIFT EASTWARD WHILE
CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET THAT
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED...SEVERAL MORE INCHES WILL NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT RADAR TRENDS HAVE
INDICATED THAT THE BAND HAS WEAKENED FROM ITS ZENITH EARLIER THIS
EVENING AND THIS WEAKER STRUCTURE SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISRUPTED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.

OFF OF LAKE ERIE...THE ROBUST LES ACTIVITY SEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING
IS FINALLY DISSIPATING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...LES SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH ON WNW FLOW ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES AS
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH. WHILE EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 10KFT...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND
AROUND/BELOW 5KFT. WHILE THIS ALONG WITH THE MULTIBAND NATURE OF THE
TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LES EVENTS WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL RATES...THE
PROLONGED WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MEANS THAT AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ON THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...THOUGH ACTIVITY ON LAKE ONTARIO
WILL TRANSITION FROM THE SINGLE BAND STRUCTURE SEEN THIS EVENING TO
MULTI-BANDED ACTIVITY ON WNW FLOW. AS USUAL HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE FOUND TO THE SE OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE LONGEST FETCH
AND UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. OFF
OF LAKE ERIE...A SIMILAR UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON SHOULD
SUSTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND EXTREME SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY.

THE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FALLING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD
AND INCREASINGLY COLD AIR FILTERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS TO
HIGH SINGLE DIGITS. THE GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY BUDGE ON THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO PLUNGE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 WITH SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE HILLTOPS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL PARTICULARLY RAW WITH WIND
CHILLS REMAINING BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WE HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...TO NOW INCLUDE
WYOMING...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. DETAILS BELOW...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. WITH STILL GOOD LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS COMING FROM AN OPEN LAKE FREE OF ICE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS UP TO 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
MORNING A MODERATE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ALSO
ACROSS WYOMING AND GENESEE COUNTIES. AS SUCH WILL EXPAND THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO INCLUDE WYOMING...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE
COUNTIES AS WELL.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE REGION IS ENHANCING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING IN
SNOW BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE. WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THESE
BANDS...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND OUTSIDE OF LES
ACTIVITY.

EXPECT LES ACTIVITY TO SHIFT OVERNIGHT AS FLOW VEERS TO THE WNW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF IFR CONDITIONS TO KJHW/KROC LATER
TONIGHT WHILE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
KBUF/KIAG/KART...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BULK OF LES
ACTIVITY. LES ACTIVITY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY 00Z
FRI AS SURFACE RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY MOVES OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY WNW WINDS TO REMAIN A FACTOR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES. SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 110142
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
842 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WE HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...TO NOW INCLUDE
WYOMING...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. DETAILS BELOW...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. WITH STILL GOOD LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS COMING FROM AN OPEN LAKE FREE OF ICE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS UP TO 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
MORNING A MODERATE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ALSO
ACROSS WYOMING AND GENESEE COUNTIES. AS SUCH WILL EXPAND THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO INCLUDE WYOMING...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE
COUNTIES AS WELL.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 110142
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
842 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE WE HAVE EXPANDED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...TO NOW INCLUDE
WYOMING...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE COUNTIES. DETAILS BELOW...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST STRONG CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. WITH STILL GOOD LAKE EFFECT
PARAMETERS COMING FROM AN OPEN LAKE FREE OF ICE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS UP TO 10K FEET WITHIN A WELL ALIGNED SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
MORNING A MODERATE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY OVER
NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...WITH THE BAND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INLAND ALSO
ACROSS WYOMING AND GENESEE COUNTIES. AS SUCH WILL EXPAND THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO INCLUDE WYOMING...NORTHERN ERIE AND GENESEE
COUNTIES AS WELL.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 110108
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
808 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES. BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE BAND MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN ERIE ZONE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 110108
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
808 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES. BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE BAND MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN ERIE ZONE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 110108
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
808 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES. BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE BAND MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN ERIE ZONE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ010-011.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ013.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 102129
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
429 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES. BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE BAND MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN ERIE ZONE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. A CONSENSUS OF 12Z GUIDANCE DROPS
850MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -30C AT BUFFALO DURING THE DAY AT
BUFFALO...WITH -33C ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE
MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS -28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY
MONTH IS -32C.

THIS WILL RESULT IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE ZERO.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BELOW ZERO IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION. PERSISTENT WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EVEN SO IT WILL BE VERY
COLD WITH BELOW ZERO LOWS REGION-WIDE. LOWS OF -20F OR COLDER ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE.
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE IS A
BIT FASTER MOVING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW LIKELY TO TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER THIS THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF
IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS/GGEM. THE ECMWF HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEVELOPED A STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
SIGNIFICANT QPF ACROSS OUR REGION WHICH WOULD FALL AS RAIN OR
SNOW. THE GGEM/GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM BUT KEEP IT WELL TO OUR
EAST...AND INSTEAD ARE A BIT COLDER WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THIS
GUIDANCE...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCE POPS.


&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 102103
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES. BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE BAND MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN ERIE ZONE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES. MONDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 102103
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES. BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE BAND MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN ERIE ZONE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES. MONDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 102103
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SOUTH FROM
LAKE ONTARIO. BEHIND THIS TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MOST FRIGID
CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS TRAILING THIS LOW ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO WHICH WILL
SLOWLY PRESS SOUTH OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL RADARS AT 3PM ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW RATES WITHIN
MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS EAST OF LAKE ERIE ARE RANGING FROM A HALF TO
AS HIGH AS ONE AND A HALF INCHES PER HOUR INCH WITH A PERSISTENT
MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING
THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT A BIT WEAKER ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN
CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM
MOISTURE CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY. LAKE EFFECT WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE AND EAST OF LAKE
ERIE SOUTH OF BUFFALO.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO SLOWLY PRESS
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LIKELY NOT FULLY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK UNTIL THURSDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD HOLD THEIR CURRENT
POSITION THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH A SLIGHT
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES PEAKING
NEAR 12FT AROUND 12Z THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE CROSSHAIR
SIGNATURE OF MOISTURE...LIFT AND SNOW GROWTH SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS. 12Z MESOSCALE
MODELS INCLUDING THE SSEO AND HIGH RES NMM/ARW SHOW THE LAKE ERIE
BAND WILL MAKE A PUSH SOUTH TOWARD ERIE PA ON THURSDAY UNDER A MORE
NORTHERLY VEERING OF THE WINDS WHICH MAY BRING A FEW HOUR BREAK IN
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA. FOR LAKE ONTARIO
THE BAND SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SHORES OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
WITHIN MORE PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS WILL TOTAL MORE THAN A FOOT WITH
STORM TOTAL MAXES OF NEAR TWO FEET CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST WAYNE
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY ON THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT...MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE A
FORECAST FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY
DROP THROUGH THIS EVENING BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 5-15 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO BREAK
INTO THE TEENS WITH A STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE HOLDING WIND CHILLS
LARGELY BELOW ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM THE WNW THURSDAY EVENING TO THE
SW BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL LIFT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...LIMITED MOISTURE AND SHEAR FROM THE SHIFTING FLOW
SHOULD DISRUPT LAKE SNOWS THURSDAY EVENING...BUT BY FRIDAY MORNING
FORECAST WIND FIELDS SUGGEST A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED SW/250 FLOW.
INITIALLY MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
LOW AND LONG FETCH DOWN THE LAKE EXPECT A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSE LAKE EFFECT BAND TO DEVELOP. CONSENSUS HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE REFLECTS THESE TRENDS...BUT SUSPECT THAT THE CONSENSUS
PLACES THE BAND TOO FAR SOUTH AND INLAND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WSW
925MB FLOW TENDS TO FUNNEL UP THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE WHICH WOULD FOCUS
THE HEAVIEST SNOWS ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE AND FAR NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA
COUNTY...OR THE SOUTH TOWNS TO SKI COUNTRY WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES A
POSSIBILITY IF THE BAND DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED. THE RGEM HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THIS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND RESULT IN A MORE DIFFUSE AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A LARGER AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS WHICH COULD BRING
A COUPLE INCHES. BASED ON THIS WILL ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH
FOR CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. THE BAND MAY
SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERN ERIE ZONE EVEN THOUGH IT SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE MOST TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST IS THURSDAY
EVENING WHEN THERE IS A WELL ALIGNED AND FAIRLY STRONG WNW FLOW
FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE. AS THIS FLOW DIMINISHES A BIT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A NARROW BUT INTENSE BAND.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ONLY LAST FOR 3-6
HOURS...THEN SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIFT THE BAND QUICKLY NORTHWARD. MOST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ONLY
SHOWS A BRIEF AND FAIRLY TRANSIENT BAND. THIS LOWERS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE A BIT...BUT WITH THE LONG FETCH AND FORECAST WIND FIELDS
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A FEW HOURS OF INTENSE SNOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE LAKE FROM WAYNE TO OSWEGO COUNTY. AFTER THIS...A WELL ALIGNED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT
ALSO MOISTURE FROM WHATEVER FORMS ON LAKE ERIE. THIS PROVIDES AMPLE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY
WITH A POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ON FRIDAY FOR WATERTOWN AND
VICINITY. CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL AROUND -16C AND THE
EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TO NEARLY 15K FT AND A
FAVORABLY DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS IN
PLACE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS TOPPED A FOOT OF
SNOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY CLIP NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTY...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT ADVISORY TYPE AMOUNTS.

ON FRIDAY EVENING A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND MERGE WITH THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY HEAVY SNOW
SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE
CONTRIBUTION MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO USHER IN BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL BE BELOW
ZERO IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE LAKES. OVERALL EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES. MONDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A EVEN MORE HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     FRIDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ007.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 101907
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING
TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. TRAILING
THIS LOW IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...LAKE SNOWS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE
EFFECT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. RADAR ESTIMATES SNOW RATES
OFF LAKE ERIE WITHIN MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS RANGING FROM A HALF TO
ONE INCH WITH A PERSISTENT MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS
NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT AT
WEAKER RATES ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO
GEORGIAN BAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAKE EFFECT...THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE A NEED FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED SNOWS WILL
TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION OF SOUTHERN
ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN OVER
TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT
IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW THAT EXPECT WARNING-
CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT
TIMES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...MODELS INDICATE THE CORE OF THESE SNOWS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERLY LAKE SHORE WITH RATES EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AS WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
LYING BELOW THAT TO RESULT IN WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR WEAKER SNOWFALL OVER THE TUG HILL
REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY DROP THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL
EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES. MONDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 101907
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING
TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. TRAILING
THIS LOW IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...LAKE SNOWS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE
EFFECT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. RADAR ESTIMATES SNOW RATES
OFF LAKE ERIE WITHIN MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS RANGING FROM A HALF TO
ONE INCH WITH A PERSISTENT MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS
NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT AT
WEAKER RATES ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO
GEORGIAN BAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAKE EFFECT...THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE A NEED FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED SNOWS WILL
TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION OF SOUTHERN
ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN OVER
TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT
IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW THAT EXPECT WARNING-
CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT
TIMES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...MODELS INDICATE THE CORE OF THESE SNOWS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERLY LAKE SHORE WITH RATES EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AS WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
LYING BELOW THAT TO RESULT IN WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR WEAKER SNOWFALL OVER THE TUG HILL
REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY DROP THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL
EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES. MONDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH





000
FXUS61 KBUF 101907
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
207 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. BEHIND THIS
TROUGH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS CONTINUING
TO THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. TRAILING
THIS LOW IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING A PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER AIRMASS INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES AS COLDER AIR
CROSSES THE STILL OPEN WATERS. ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...LAKE SNOWS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OFF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WITH LAKE
EFFECT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT. RADAR ESTIMATES SNOW RATES
OFF LAKE ERIE WITHIN MULTIPLE NARROW BANDS RANGING FROM A HALF TO
ONE INCH WITH A PERSISTENT MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW BAND WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR RATES HUGGING THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE ACROSS
NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES AND EXTENDING EAST BUT AT
WEAKER RATES ACROSS WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND SOUTHERN OSWEGO
COUNTIES. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE SNOW RATES ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE ARE DO TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTION TO
GEORGIAN BAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LAKE EFFECT...THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL CONTINUE A NEED FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED SNOWS WILL
TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION OF SOUTHERN
ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN OVER
TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT
SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT TIED TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON. WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT
IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW THAT EXPECT WARNING-
CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 FEET ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT
TIMES...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...MODELS INDICATE THE CORE OF THESE SNOWS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHERLY LAKE SHORE WITH RATES EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN
OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
AS WITH THE LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN
PLACE WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
LYING BELOW THAT TO RESULT IN WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY FOR WEAKER SNOWFALL OVER THE TUG HILL
REGION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO STEADILY DROP THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AND MOIST FLOW WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES IS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY WITH
ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKES. OVERALL
EXPECT IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VIS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WITH MVFR CIGS
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE SNOWS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE
LAKES... WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR IN WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES. MONDAY...CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRISK FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/SMITH
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR/SMITH




000
FXUS61 KBUF 101510
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MORNING UPDATE...UPGRADED NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES
TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND SHIFTED THE START TIME TO 9AM
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. KBUF RADAR IS SHOWING
A WELL ORGANIZED SNOW BAND RIDING THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE FROM YOUNGSTOWN EAST TO WEBSTER STAYING JUST NORTH OF
DOWNTOWN ROCHESTER. THE KING CITY CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS ENHANCING THE LAKE BAND OVER
THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKESHORE. KBUF RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW
RATES ARE RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE BAND
WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 700MB
MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ALONE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO
A WARNING WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RGEM
MODELS SUGGESTING THE BAND COULD PERSIST IN PLACE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE CORE OF HEAVIEST SNOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LAKES SHORE. SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THIS NEWLY
UPGRADED WARNING HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO A RANGE OF 7 TO 15 INCHES
RANGING FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF THE LATEST WARNING UPGRADE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION ARE FALLING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON TONIGHT. WITH LAKE
EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO
WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE NOW TAKING
SHAPE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE ON A WESTERLY FLOW. THE CORE OF
THESE SNOWS WILL SHIFT EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN WAYNE-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION WHERE LESSER BUT
STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR CONTINUES WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 101510
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MORNING UPDATE...UPGRADED NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES
TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND SHIFTED THE START TIME TO 9AM
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. KBUF RADAR IS SHOWING
A WELL ORGANIZED SNOW BAND RIDING THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE FROM YOUNGSTOWN EAST TO WEBSTER STAYING JUST NORTH OF
DOWNTOWN ROCHESTER. THE KING CITY CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS ENHANCING THE LAKE BAND OVER
THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKESHORE. KBUF RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW
RATES ARE RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE BAND
WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 700MB
MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ALONE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO
A WARNING WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RGEM
MODELS SUGGESTING THE BAND COULD PERSIST IN PLACE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE CORE OF HEAVIEST SNOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LAKES SHORE. SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THIS NEWLY
UPGRADED WARNING HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO A RANGE OF 7 TO 15 INCHES
RANGING FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF THE LATEST WARNING UPGRADE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION ARE FALLING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON TONIGHT. WITH LAKE
EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO
WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE NOW TAKING
SHAPE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE ON A WESTERLY FLOW. THE CORE OF
THESE SNOWS WILL SHIFT EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN WAYNE-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION WHERE LESSER BUT
STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR CONTINUES WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 101510
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1010 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

MORNING UPDATE...UPGRADED NIAGARA...ORLEANS AND MONROE COUNTIES
TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING AND SHIFTED THE START TIME TO 9AM
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. KBUF RADAR IS SHOWING
A WELL ORGANIZED SNOW BAND RIDING THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO
SHORELINE FROM YOUNGSTOWN EAST TO WEBSTER STAYING JUST NORTH OF
DOWNTOWN ROCHESTER. THE KING CITY CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS AN UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WHICH IS ENHANCING THE LAKE BAND OVER
THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO LAKESHORE. KBUF RADAR ESTIMATED SNOW
RATES ARE RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN THE BAND
WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 700MB
MOISTURE PLUME. THIS ALONE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO
A WARNING WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE LATEST HRRR AND RGEM
MODELS SUGGESTING THE BAND COULD PERSIST IN PLACE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE CORE OF HEAVIEST SNOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LAKES SHORE. SNOW TOTALS WITHIN THIS NEWLY
UPGRADED WARNING HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO A RANGE OF 7 TO 15 INCHES
RANGING FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF THE LATEST WARNING UPGRADE...THE FORECAST REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE
ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION ARE FALLING THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON TONIGHT. WITH LAKE
EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO
WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE NOW TAKING
SHAPE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE ON A WESTERLY FLOW. THE CORE OF
THESE SNOWS WILL SHIFT EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BEFORE SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE
LAKE ERIE ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN WAYNE-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE TUG HILL REGION WHERE LESSER BUT
STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY BETWEEN TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR CONTINUES WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE ENHANCEMENT
REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED LAKE SNOWS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     NYZ001>003-019-020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/SMITH
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/SMITH
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 101158
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
658 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THAT ARE
EXPECTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE INCOMING
COLDER AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL
LIGHT SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON
TONIGHT. WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE
MOISTURE LYING BELOW THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-
CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...MODEST LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE
NOW TAKING SHAPE EAST OF THE LAKE ON A SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. AFTER LINGERING ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS MORNING...THE CORE OF THESE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW...BEFORE
SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE THE EXISTING LAKE SNOW
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS.
MEANWHILE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TUG
HILL REGION...AND ALSO FOR THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
WHERE LESSER BUT STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FORMER REGION AFFECTED BY
THE DEVELOPING/ SHIFTING LAKE SNOWS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND
THE LATTER AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE MAIN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOW BAND AND POSSIBLE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED
LAKE SNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ019-
     020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





000
FXUS61 KBUF 101158
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
658 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THAT ARE
EXPECTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE INCOMING
COLDER AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL
LIGHT SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON
TONIGHT. WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE
MOISTURE LYING BELOW THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-
CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...MODEST LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE
NOW TAKING SHAPE EAST OF THE LAKE ON A SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. AFTER LINGERING ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS MORNING...THE CORE OF THESE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW...BEFORE
SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE THE EXISTING LAKE SNOW
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS.
MEANWHILE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TUG
HILL REGION...AND ALSO FOR THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
WHERE LESSER BUT STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FORMER REGION AFFECTED BY
THE DEVELOPING/ SHIFTING LAKE SNOWS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND
THE LATTER AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE MAIN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOW BAND AND POSSIBLE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED
LAKE SNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ019-
     020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR




000
FXUS61 KBUF 101158
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
658 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHILE GENERATING ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS TO THE LEE OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THE MOST FRIGID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE
ZERO...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE AT DANGEROUSLY LOW LEVELS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC-SOURCED
AIRMASS OVERSPREADING OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
AREAS OF OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED AND LAKE EFFECT SNOWS THAT ARE
EXPECTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WITHIN THE INCOMING
COLDER AIRMASS...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERAL
LIGHT SNOWFALL OF A FEW INCHES TO THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHILE ALSO CONTINUING THE TREND TOWARD COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

REGARDING THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL MENTIONED ABOVE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TODAY WILL VEER MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A NOTEWORTHY MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...THE STEADIEST LAKE AND TERRAIN-ENHANCED
SNOWS WILL TEND TO FOCUS MOST ACROSS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE REGION
OF SOUTHERN ERIE/CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LAKE-DRIVEN
OVER TIME AS OUR AIRMASS GROWS COLDER. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AND
MOST PERSISTENT SNOWS IN THIS REGION TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWS TONIGHT TIED
TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATER ON
TONIGHT. WITH LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT IN PLACE AND FAVORABLE
MOISTURE LYING BELOW THAT...THE STAGE APPEARS SET FOR WARNING-
CRITERIA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY VENTURE INTO WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY AT
TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING...WHERE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MEANWHILE OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...MODEST LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS ARE
NOW TAKING SHAPE EAST OF THE LAKE ON A SHEARED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. AFTER LINGERING ACROSS THIS
REGION THIS MORNING...THE CORE OF THESE WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW...BEFORE
SETTLING EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. AS WITH THE LAKE ERIE
ACTIVITY...A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH
LAKE EQLS OF 8-10 KFT PRESENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LYING BELOW
THAT TO RESULT IN A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WARNING-CRITERIA SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WHERE THE SNOWS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH IN THIS CASE APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHEASTERN
WAYNE-SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERE THE EXISTING LAKE SNOW
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS.
MEANWHILE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS WARNING AREA... LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORIES HAVE ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TUG
HILL REGION...AND ALSO FOR THE NIAGARA-MONROE COUNTY CORRIDOR
WHERE LESSER BUT STILL ADVISORY-WORTHY AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY
BETWEEN TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE FORMER REGION AFFECTED BY
THE DEVELOPING/ SHIFTING LAKE SNOWS TODAY AND THIS EVENING...AND
THE LATTER AREA LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF
THE MAIN LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOW BAND AND POSSIBLE UPSTREAM
CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THESE TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STEADILY DROP INTO THE 10-15 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE
TONIGHT...READINGS MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES REGION.
ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. THE
MAIN FOCUS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE WITH THE ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

OFF LAKE ERIE...

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE FETCH
ACROSS LAKE ERIE BUT ALSO PROVIDE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...MOST LIKELY THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY NEAR FINDLAY LAKE GIVEN THE FLOW DIRECTION. THIS UPSTREAM
CONNECTION WILL END LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
BACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THE END OF THE UPSTREAM CONNECTION
AND ALSO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDING OVER LAKE ERIE SHOULD
WEAKEN THE LAKE ERIE LAKE EFFECT LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ON THURSDAY IN
PERSISTENT BANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...WITH THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
ALSO WHERE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION FORMS. THIS WILL BRING STORM
TOTALS FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE 12-18 INCH RANGE IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS...MAINLY IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF UPSLOPE FLOW JUST INLAND FROM THE
LAKESHORE.

LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BACK TO THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY WSW AS A SURFACE LOW RACES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO IN ADVANCE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE BACKING WINDS WILL ALLOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO RE-ORGANIZE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS FETCH
INCREASES ACROSS THE LAKE. INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET...ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS MAY
DRY OUT IN THE TOP OF THAT LAYER. EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA FOR A TIME
FRIDAY MORNING...ALSO EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE
AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS...WITH UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE IMPACT OF
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...

SIMILAR TO LAKE ERIE...LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY REMAINS STRONG
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 10K FEET. ON
THURSDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST...WITH SNOW ALONG
MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE 290 WIND DIRECTION SUGGESTS
THERE WILL BE A RELATIVE MAX IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
WAYNE/NORTHERN CAYUGA/SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES WHERE THE FETCH IS
MAXIMIZED. MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESIDE TO THE WEST OF
ROCHESTER ON THURSDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY OF
3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA AND FAR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTIES.
FARTHER WEST EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER TO
PORTIONS OF ORLEANS AND EASTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES. THE WILDCARD IN
THIS AREA IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE UPSTREAM GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION
WHICH MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE TOTALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE TIME OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL
FOR A SMALL AREA SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BAND CONSOLIDATES
WITH BACKING FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WNW
AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE LAKE. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO END FROM ROCHESTER
WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING AS THE BAND LIFTS NORTH AND OFFSHORE.
FARTHER EAST...EXPECT AN INTENSIFYING SINGLE BAND OF SNOW OVER
EASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW QUICKLY BACKS FURTHER TO WEST AND WSW...WHICH WILL CARRY THE
BAND RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD PEAK FROM SODUS INTO NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTY
WITH ANOTHER 8-10 INCHES POSSIBLE. EXPECT A QUICK 2-4 INCHES ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE BAND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN ACROSS JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES. LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH SHEAR MAY INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS BAND MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO FRIDAY. THIS MAY EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ONCE THE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CERTAIN.

LAST BUT NOT LEAST...A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY CAPTURE AND
MERGE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO...WITH A VERY
HEAVY SNOW SQUALL PASSING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES WHERE THE LAKE CONTRIBUTION
MAXIMIZES. BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...MULTIPLE STREAMERS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AS 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO AN AVERAGE OF
-32C. TO PUT THIS IN PROSPECTIVE...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED AT 850MB ON A KBUF SOUNDING IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY IS
-28C...AND THE COLDEST EVER RECORDED FOR ANY MONTH IS -32C.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DEPENDING ON LOCATION. ANY ABOVE ZERO
TEMPERATURES FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT CROSSES THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH -20 OR BETTER ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY WITH NO MODERATING LAKE INFLUENCE. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE WINDS AND FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD
WIND CHILLS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRIGID NORTH FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. DESPITE THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY...AIRMASSES THIS COLD ARE ALSO VERY DRY AND
TEMPERATURES BECOME TOO COLD FOR DENDRITES. THIS WILL FORCE
SNOWFLAKES TO BE VERY SMALL AND LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BOTH LAKES. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY...BUT NOT END
ALTOGETHER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH CRESTS OVERHEAD.

THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS STRONG WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THE REGION BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER A GOOD DEAL ON
THE TIMING AND TRACK DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING COLD AIR WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WHILE WESTERLY FLOW AND ADDED LAKE
ENHANCEMENT REDUCES CONDITIONS TO AS LOW AS LIFR IN MORE LOCALIZED
LAKE SNOWS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/IFR IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS GENERALLY
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS...AND IFR/LIFR IN AREAS OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.
FRIDAY...IFR/MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY...AND AREAS OF HEAVIER
LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SATURDAY...IFR/MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE LAKES...
WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE LAKES...WITH MVFR/VFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BRISK FLOW OF
PROGRESSIVELY COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ADVISORY-WORTHY
WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND OUR EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THESE MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EVEN A BIT FURTHER OUT IN TIME.

IN ADDITION TO THE ABOVE...THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY EVENING WILL ALSO USHER IN A TRULY FRIGID AIRMASS FOR LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE EXPECTED BRISK WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GREATLY HEIGHTENED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ004>006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ001>003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ019-
     020-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ012.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR





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