000
FXUS61 KBUF 241121
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
721 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS
WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN NY. AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...THE
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THE
COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS TROF...IT IS EVEN COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER 1800 FEET OR SO IN THE WYOMING
HILLS AND SOUTHERN TIER. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL ALSO GIVE WAY
TO SOME INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST EXISTS.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 241032
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
632 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN IS
WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN NY. AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING
WILL ALSO GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK.
IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN
CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST EXISTS.
HOWEVER...STILL FEEL THAT THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240730
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
STILL IN PLACE.
AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A
SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID
30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR REGION WILL BE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD IN
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NARROWED...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW FAR WEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL BE.
REGARDLESS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH INCLUDES BUFFALO...ROCHESTER...AND THE SOUTHERN TIER.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SHOWER EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE PAST
TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM/SREF/EUROPEAN/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT SHOULD
MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY...AND SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT...EXPECT AN EARLY LAKE BREEZE SOUTH
OF LAKE ONTARIO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE CHILLY...WITH SOME
PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A MODEST GRADIENT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BUILDING EASTWARD. A SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR.
HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR REGION. AFTER
THIS...A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
LAKES...SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT TOWARD OUR REGION THROUGH MID-WEEK. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WHEN IT WILL CROSS OUR REGION. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM
LIFT THE FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...WITH THE EUROPEAN
NEARLY A DAY SLOWER. FOR NOW...WITH GO WITH A PERSISTENT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
WILL ALSO KEY EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY MID-WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY EVEN WARMER
IF THE EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE VERIFIES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240719
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
319 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND A DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST TODAY...BUT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE
RULE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT IN THE
RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS QUEBEC.
WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR WEST AS THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT IS
STILL IN PLACE.
AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF GRADUALLY
FROM WEST TO EAST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME
INCREASE IN SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL PUT EVEN MORE A CHILL INTO
THE AIR.
TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN...THEN CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEAST NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW MAY GENERATE A FEW MORE SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. FARTHER TO THE WEST...EXPECT TO SEE A
SHARP EAST TO WEST DECREASE IN CLOUDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND
ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S...WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID
30S...THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST INCREASES. HOWEVER...FEEL THAT THE
NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW
AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD FROST.
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH THE
TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A FREEZE
IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERS BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD
FRONT. THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR AS THE RAIN TAPERS OFF. LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON...CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR...THEN SCATTER OUT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL
TREND WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE STATIONED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MODEST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTED COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE LIFTING UP THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT WIND AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A SCA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR LOZ042-045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 240228
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1028 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AS MUCH COOLER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY BUT COOL
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS EVENING SHOWING LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ASCENT AND DEFORMATION. FARTHER EAST THE
ORIGINAL AREA OF SHOWERS ALSO REMAINS...AND IS PUSHING SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WHERE LOWERING
CLOUDS CIGS MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS WILL JUST INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR FORMATION IS GREATER DUE TO
THE RECENT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT (NEAR 0C AT 850 HPA) HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
CHILLY. AN EARLY APRIL FEEL TO THE AIR WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION AND KEEP
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING RAIN AND A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO AT
LEAST MVFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY BONIFIDE FOG. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON THE
HIGHEST HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE LOWER
CLOUD DECK MAY INTERSECT THE HILLTOPS.
ON FRIDAY THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE END OF RAIN...THEN SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON BOTH LAKES. WAVES WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-
044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBUF 232319
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
719 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AS MUCH COOLER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR A DRY BUT COOL
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWING RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS WESTERN NY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPSTREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES.
SURFACE OBS SHOWING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE
CWA AT 23Z...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
SHORTLY. TEMPERATURES ARE TAKING A NOSE DIVE AS STRONG CAA TAKES
HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING THE GREATER INSTABILITY. A SCATTERED
STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AND LEWIS COUNTY...BUT AFTER THAT ANY THUNDER
RISK WILL BE OVER AS A MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SWEEPS
INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER LATER TONIGHT WHERE LOWERING
CLOUDS CIGS MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW IN THE
GRIDS WILL JUST INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR FORMATION IS GREATER DUE TO
THE RECENT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT (NEAR 0C AT 850 HPA) HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
CHILLY. AN EARLY APRIL FEEL TO THE AIR WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION AND KEEP
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT EVEN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING RAIN AND A STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD LOWER TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE. VSBY MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO AT
LEAST MVFR AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD PREVENT ANY BONIFIDE FOG. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ON THE
HIGHEST HILLS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES WHERE THE LOWER
CLOUD DECK MAY INTERSECT THE HILLTOPS.
ON FRIDAY THE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. IFR CIGS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE END OF RAIN...THEN SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO
VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NY AS A DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON BOTH LAKES. WAVES WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SOME AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231950
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PUSHING HUMIDITY
AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD. HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARS. LIGHT RAIN WILL END THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS MOVING IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH
STORMS FORMING ON THE EDGE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS/ LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES/ AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STORMS ARE ALSO FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR
WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...POSSIBLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE WHERE
A CHILLY WIND OVER THE LAKES AND STILL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY BRING PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. ALSO FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOWERING CLOUDS CIGS
MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW IN THE GRIDS WILL JUST
INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE CONFIDENCE FOR FORMATION IS GREATER DUE TO THE RECENT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LINGERING CLOUDS
AND COLD POOL ALOFT (NEAR 0C AT 850 HPA) HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE
CHILLY. AN EARLY APRIL FEEL TO THE AIR WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET DURING THE PERIOD AS A
COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA. HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD AS THE CUT OFF LOW PROGRESSES INTO NEW ENGLAND. MAIN
CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW AND APPROACHING SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY BE TOUGH TO GET WITH
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE...WOULD FEEL MORE CONFIDENT IN A
FREEZE IF WINDS COULD COMPLETELY DROP OFF. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE OUT OF FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO MENTION IN
HWO PRODUCT.
AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION
MOVING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE WEST.
BOTH WEEKEND DAYS LOOK TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...WITH SATURDAY THE
COOLEST OF THE TWO DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN COOLER BOTH DAYS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OR AT LEAST THE BULK OF IT CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A HIGH AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER HOLDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ALONG WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND...AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES SLOWLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BUILDING EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT A WARMER
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING SOME MINIMAL RISK OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT STORMS
EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE
KJHW/KROC AND KART TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AND END
TO CONVECTION...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BRING LOWERING CIGS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TOMORROW LOW CIGS WILL LINGER...THOUGH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THESE CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL END THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING AND
WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
WAVES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND THE 4 FOOT MARK ON BOTH LAKES. WAVES
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME ON
SATURDAY AND POSSIBLE BRING SOME SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE
EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231819
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
219 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PUSHING HUMIDITY
AND THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD. HOWEVER LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NEARS. LIGHT RAIN WILL END THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE
REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION WITH
STORMS FORMING ON THE EDGE OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
BETWEEN THE CLOUDS/ LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES/ AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STORMS ARE ALSO FORMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES
AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS FOUND. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON.
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND WEST A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE
LAKES. A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OF SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM OVER LAKE ERIE
AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED
ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE WESTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW OF
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRUSH BY THE NORTHERN NIAGARA
FRONTIER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACTIVITY
SOUTHWARD.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
AN END TO THE THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD TROUGH STILL TO OUR
WEST...LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER OUR REGION. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE WHERE A
CHILLY WIND OVER THE LAKES AND STILL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BRING PATCHY AREAS OF FOG. ALSO FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE LOWERING CLOUDS CIGS
MAY ALSO BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL...INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH TOWARDS WESTERN NEW
YORK TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS TO MAINLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS AXIS WHERE THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. THIS TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG...EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW
NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO SLOWLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVANCES
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR PULLS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL DIMINISH WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN HOW QUICKLY AND WHERE THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL...00Z RUNS OF THE
AMERICAN NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS ARE SLOWER IN CLOSING THE LOW OFF
WHICH WOULD KEEP IT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THE
EUROPEAN/UKMET/GGEM CLOSE THE LOW OFF MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER TO
THE WEST. IF THE LATTER VERIFY...CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER
IN THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AT THIS
POINT...FEEL AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST
APPROACH UNTIL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE A
SHOWER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK. LOWS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...LEAVING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BLOSSOMING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS AND PERSISTENT STORMS
EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER...THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. WILL INCLUDE A VCTS IN THE
KJHW/KROC AND KART TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING AND END
TO CONVECTION...HOWEVER PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FEED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALSO BRING LOWERING CIGS WITH IFR EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
SITES...POSSIBLY LIFR IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TOMORROW LOW CIGS WILL LINGER...THOUGH DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LIFT THESE CIGS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR BY THE END
OF THE TAF CYCLE. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL END THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231449
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1049 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING A SURFACE LOW IS FOUND JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN END OF LAKE
ONTARIO AND DOWN ALONG LAKE ERIE. THIS PLACES OUR CWA STILL WITHIN
THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS WARM AND HUMID AS
RECENT DAYS. REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING THE BEGINNING OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WNY AND
SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT FAVORABLE...
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COMPARED TO WHAT
WE SAW THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD
WHERE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE
READINGS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SETTLES OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL THROUGH THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPFS ARE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...EXPECT A SOLID AREA OF NON-CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN HOW QUICKLY AND WHERE THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL...00Z RUNS OF THE AMERICAN
NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS ARE SLOWER IN CLOSING THE LOW OFF WHICH WOULD
KEEP IT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN/UKMET/GGEM
CLOSE THE LOW OFF MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER TO THE WEST. IF THE
LATTER VERIFY...CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FEEL AN
ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST APPROACH UNTIL
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE A
SHOWER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK. LOWS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...LEAVING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DESPITE THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR...THEN DROP TO MVFR
LATE IN THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 231035
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
635 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND COLD
FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS
IN PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE
STEADIEST RAIN NOW CENTERED OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY...THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT FAVORABLE...
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COMPARED TO WHAT
WE SAW THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SETTLES OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL THROUGH THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPFS ARE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...EXPECT A SOLID AREA OF NON-CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN HOW QUICKLY AND WHERE THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL...00Z RUNS OF THE AMERICAN
NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS ARE SLOWER IN CLOSING THE LOW OFF WHICH WOULD
KEEP IT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN/UKMET/GGEM
CLOSE THE LOW OFF MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER TO THE WEST. IF THE
LATTER VERIFY...CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FEEL AN
ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST APPROACH UNTIL
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE A
SHOWER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK. LOWS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...LEAVING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DESPITE THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR...THEN DROP TO MVFR
LATE IN THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230750
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST ACROSS MICHIGAN. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS STILL IN
PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING EAST ACROSS OHIO AND LAKE ERIE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY...ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT FAVORABLE...
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COMPARED TO WHAT
WE SAW THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SETTLES OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL THROUGH THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPFS ARE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...EXPECT A SOLID AREA OF NON-CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN HOW QUICKLY AND WHERE THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL...00Z RUNS OF THE AMERICAN
NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS ARE SLOWER IN CLOSING THE LOW OFF WHICH WOULD
KEEP IT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN/UKMET/GGEM
CLOSE THE LOW OFF MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER TO THE WEST. IF THE
LATTER VERIFY...CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FEEL AN
ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST APPROACH UNTIL
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE A
SHOWER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK. LOWS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...LEAVING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DESPITE THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR...THEN DROP TO MVFR
LATE IN THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230746
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
346 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST ACROSS MICHIGAN. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS STILL IN
PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING EAST ACROSS OHIO AND LAKE ERIE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY...ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT FAVORABLE...
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COMPARED TO WHAT
WE SAW THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SETTLES OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL THROUGH THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MODEL QPFS ARE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...EXPECT A SOLID AREA OF NON-CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. HIGHS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND IS FORECAST TO
EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN HOW QUICKLY AND WHERE THE CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. IN GENERAL...00Z RUNS OF THE AMERICAN
NAM/GFS/SREF MODELS ARE SLOWER IN CLOSING THE LOW OFF WHICH WOULD
KEEP IT WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION. THE EUROPEAN/UKMET/GGEM
CLOSE THE LOW OFF MORE QUICKLY AND FURTHER TO THE WEST. IF THE
LATTER VERIFY...CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...FEEL AN
ENSEMBLE OF ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS THE BEST APPROACH UNTIL
GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
EITHER WAY...EXPECT AREAS WEST OF ROCHESTER WILL REMAIN DRY...AND
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY SEE A
SHOWER...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S ON
SATURDAY AND THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE CLOUDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY PUSH THE FREEZING MARK. LOWS SHOULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL WEAKEN AND EXIT INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES...LEAVING COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES.
THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DESPITE THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR...THEN DROP TO MVFR
LATE IN THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT FRIDAY
FOR LEZ040-041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM
EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
LOZ045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL/TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230708
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
308 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
FRONT TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AS DRIER
AIR WORKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ALSO FOLLOW THE
FRONT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING WEST ACROSS MICHIGAN. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS STILL IN
PLACE OVER NEW YORK STATE. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE STEADIEST RAIN TO IMPACT WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE ADDITIONAL LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY A WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING EAST ACROSS OHIO AND LAKE ERIE.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY...ITS TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT FAVORABLE...
LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS COMPARED TO WHAT
WE SAW THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER.
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY`S HIGHS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR WEST WHERE READINGS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SETTLES OVER WESTERN NEW YORK. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE FRONT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL THROUGH THE 40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...AS A BROAD AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S
AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GRADIENT MAY STAY
UP ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO A MINIMUM
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TO
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DESPITE THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE.
A COLD FRONT THAT TRAILS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL
CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY BE VFR...THEN DROP TO MVFR
LATE IN THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WORKS INTO NEW YORK STATE. THE PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE
...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTED FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS SHOWERS DIMINISH.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK THIS AFTERNOON. A BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 230229
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1029 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
RAIN WILL END FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ABOUT TO EXIT THE
EAST END OF THE CWA ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
LINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. ELSEWHERE THE REST OF THE CWA HAS DRIED
OUT FOR THE MOST PARK EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST
MONROE COUNTY.
UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS OVER NORTHERN OHIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH. ASCENT WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN NY LATER TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH...SO
SHOWER CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE. WITH ONGOING STABILIZATION
HOWEVER...EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE. ANY STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND TAME GIVEN THE SLACKENING INSTABILITY.
FOR TOMORROW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW YORK STATE.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS TOMORROW ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WILL
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CWA WILL BE FOUND...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL STILL TO THE WEST.
COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST THURSDAY EVENING...THEN PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S
AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GRADIENT MAY STAY
UP ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO A MINIMUM
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL EXIT THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION
THROUGH 0330Z WITH BRIEF/ISOLATED IFR COMING TO AN END THERE.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA HAS DRIED OUT THIS EVENING WITH VFR
PREVAILING.
A FEW MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER OHIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MAY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY OVERNIGHT AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
THE REGION. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH VFR
PREVAILING MOST OF THE TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION DESPITE THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THROUGH THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE
RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY
BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A DROP TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE
AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF ANY STORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES ON THURSDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVES HEIGHTS ON BOTH
LAKES...THOUGH WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 4 FOOT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WAVE
HEIGHTS PEAK...POSSIBLY AT THE 4 FOOT MARK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBUF 222349
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
749 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE
RAIN WILL END FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION AT 2330Z. A BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ON KBUF RADAR IMAGERY MOVING
JUST EAST OF BUFFALO NOW. SHORT TERM MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE KEYS
ON THIS FEATURE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. THERE STILL MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...BUT POTENTIAL WILL
DECREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY END ACROSS WESTERN NY. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK
STORMS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND LAKE ERIE MAY SURVIVE THE TRIP
AND BRING A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE.
FOR TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ
CARRIES NORTHWARD EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN
THE 60S.
FOR TOMORROW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW YORK STATE.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS TOMORROW ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WILL
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CWA WILL BE FOUND...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL STILL TO THE WEST.
COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST THURSDAY EVENING...THEN PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S
AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GRADIENT MAY STAY
UP ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO A MINIMUM
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM KIAG-KBUF-KJHW
AT 2330Z WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH ABOUT 05Z. INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH
WITH EASTERN EXTENT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT VFR TO
PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...BUT ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE
LOCAL/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE A FEW MORE SHOWERS UPSTREAM
OVER OHIO AND CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN NY FROM LATE
EVENING ON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND OVERNIGHT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION DESPITE THE VERY MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THROUGH THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO TAKE
RESIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. CIGS/VSBY SHOULD INITIALLY
BE VFR...ALTHOUGH A DROP TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKES ON THURSDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVES HEIGHTS ON BOTH LAKES...THOUGH
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 4 FOOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS PEAK...POSSIBLY
AT THE 4 FOOT MARK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBUF 222001
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
401 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING. IT WILL TURN COOLER
TOMORROW...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED JUST TO OUR EAST...BUT OVER OUR REGION MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND ALSO INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE AND WITH
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AND THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
INLAND SOME CU HAS BLOSSOMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WNY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME INSTABILITY WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH LI`S OF -7C AND SBCAPE OF 2500+ J/KG
IS OVER INTERIOR WNY. THE CU OVER WNY IS FORMING WITHIN THIS AREA OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND LATER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE HIGHEST POPS THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THIS
REGION. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE
BREEZE AND THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN ADDITIONAL CONVERGENT LIFT AHEAD OF A 45 KNOT LLJ AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FUELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212 WILL GO
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT.
FOR TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LLJ
CARRIES NORTHWARD EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
FOR TOMORROW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW YORK STATE.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS TOMORROW ADDITIONAL LIFT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WILL
MENTION THUNDER ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE CWA WILL BE FOUND...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 500
J/KG. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL COOL POOL STILL TO THE WEST.
COOLER TOMORROW WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO AND
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL BE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST THURSDAY EVENING...THEN PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION...AS A BROAD AND STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION THREAT FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S
AND HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THE GRADIENT MAY STAY
UP ENOUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO A MINIMUM
BUT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY NUDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A WIDE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPERATURES. THE COOLEST PERIOD LOOKS TO
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST SOME FROST POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IT IS LIKELY THAT HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH
SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
HIGHS REACHING NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE LOWER
GENESEE VALLEY. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...INCLUDING THE KART TAF FOR THIS LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS JUST CARRY A VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORM.
FOR TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY NORTHWARD...WITH A
LLJ OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CARRY LLWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND OVERCAST WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATER IN MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THUNDER LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKES ON THURSDAY. COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVES HEIGHTS ON BOTH LAKES...THOUGH
WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 4 FOOT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFTS MAY BE NEEDED EARLY FRIDAY WHEN WAVE HEIGHTS PEAK...POSSIBLY
AT THE 4 FOOT MARK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221808
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
208 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING. IT WILL TURN COOLER
TOMORROW...AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BLOSSOMED JUST TO OUR EAST...BUT OVER OUR REGION MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER...AND ALSO INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE ERIE AND WITH
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AND THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
INLAND SOME CU HAS BLOSSOMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WNY AND THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL DAYTIME INSTABILITY WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH LI`S OF -7C AND SBCAPE OF 2500+ J/KG IS
OVER INTERIOR WNY. THE CU OVER WNY FORMING WITHIN THIS AREA OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FORM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND LATER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITHIN THIS
REGION. CONVECTION ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WHEN ADDITIONAL CONVERGENT LIFT AHEAD OF A 45 KNOT LLJ AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FUELS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR TONIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CARRIES NORTHWARD AND THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A STRETCH OF MID SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...A SUBTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL YIELD A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER REGIME. RATHER THAN EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF JULY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO MERCURY LEVELS THAT
WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL ALL COME AS A
RESULT OF THE EXITING OF A SULTRY RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH
WILL BE REPLACED BY AN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER ALL OF
NORTH AMERICA. THE PSEUDO-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH TWIN TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND QUEBEC. THE DETAILS...
A BROAD...COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT TO THE EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY 100M HGT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AXIS
OF ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE DAY...THEN A TRAILING DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EXITING SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP THE RAIN INTACT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL COVER BOTH PERIODS WITH CAT POPS...BUT QPF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS
THAT UP TO THIS POINT HAD BEEN IN THE MID TEENS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TO NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDAY HIGHS OF 70 TO 75 BEFORE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALL IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MERCURY READINGS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER IN MANY AREAS THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE....WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...THE BACK EDGE TO THE SOAKING RAIN WILL BE FOUND PUSHING
EAST FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL BE
CROSSING OVERHEAD. DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WITH THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUD COVER
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A FEEL OF AUTUMN IN THE AIR AS H85 TEMPS NEAR ZERO C WILL
CORRESPOND TO NEAR SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S F.
IT WILL THEN BECOME DOWNRIGHT CHILLY (IF NOT COLD) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD STILL
ENCOURAGE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT THE AMOUNT OF
DRY SYNOPTIC AIR AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
WORK AGAINST THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPS SHOULD THUS FALL TO NEAR 40
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SRN TIER AND EASTERN LK ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL LEND TO THE
RISK FOR SOME FROST...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF OUR
MINDS.
A LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES...THE MOISTURE STARVED AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWERS. RATHER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 60 WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE 30S WILL DOMINATE THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF FROST
IN PLACE FOR THOSE COLDER AREAS
.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NUDGE EASTWARD. HIGHS OF 60
TO 65 ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MID 70S)
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 18Z VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE LOWER
GENESEE VALLEY. WILL CARRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION...INCLUDING THE KART TAF FOR THIS LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHER LOCATIONS JUST CARRY A VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM. SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORM.
FOR TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY NORTHWARD...WITH A
LLJ OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CARRY LLWS OVERNIGHT
IN THE TAFS.
TOMORROW MORNING HOURS WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND OVERCAST WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATER IN MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT NEARS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME THUNDER LOOKS TO BE LIMITED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT IFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221439
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF SHOWER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES
REGION THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS SOME
CLEARING ACROSS WNY...AND THIS CLEARING WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD
THROUGH LATE MORNING HOURS. SEVERAL HOURS OF SUNSHINE WILL ADD TO
THE INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
LATER TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
HEAD EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE AND A 30
TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE INSTABILITY
DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER.....FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES...
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WILL BE IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...IF ANY STORMS DO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INSTEAD OF SEVERE HAIL. SPC
HAS MOST OF NEW YORK OUTLINED WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...FOLLOWED THE TREND DEPICTED BY
THE WARMER GFS BIASED CORRECTED FORECAST. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE FOUND IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHILE ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT STAYS JUST WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STILL KEEP MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A STRETCH OF MID SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...A SUBTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL YIELD A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER REGIME. RATHER THAN EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF JULY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO MERCURY LEVELS THAT
WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL ALL COME AS A
RESULT OF THE EXITING OF A SULTRY RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH
WILL BE REPLACED BY AN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER ALL OF
NORTH AMERICA. THE PSEUDO-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH TWIN TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND QUEBEC. THE DETAILS...
A BROAD...COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT TO THE EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY 100M HGT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AXIS
OF ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE DAY...THEN A TRAILING DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EXITING SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP THE RAIN INTACT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL COVER BOTH PERIODS WITH CAT POPS...BUT QPF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS
THAT UP TO THIS POINT HAD BEEN IN THE MID TEENS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TO NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDAY HIGHS OF 70 TO 75 BEFORE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALL IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MERCURY READINGS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER IN MANY AREAS THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE....WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...THE BACK EDGE TO THE SOAKING RAIN WILL BE FOUND PUSHING
EAST FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL BE
CROSSING OVERHEAD. DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WITH THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUD COVER
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A FEEL OF AUTUMN IN THE AIR AS H85 TEMPS NEAR ZERO C WILL
CORRESPOND TO NEAR SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S F.
IT WILL THEN BECOME DOWNRIGHT CHILLY (IF NOT COLD) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD STILL
ENCOURAGE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT THE AMOUNT OF
DRY SYNOPTIC AIR AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
WORK AGAINST THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPS SHOULD THUS FALL TO NEAR 40
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SRN TIER AND EASTERN LK ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL LEND TO THE
RISK FOR SOME FROST...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF OUR
MINDS.
A LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES...THE MOISTURE STARVED AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWERS. RATHER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 60 WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE 30S WILL DOMINATE THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF FROST
IN PLACE FOR THOSE COLDER AREAS
.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NUDGE EASTWARD. HIGHS OF 60
TO 65 ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MID 70S)
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT 15Z WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VCNTY OF PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...THOMAS/TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...THOMAS/TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 221101
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
701 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WE WILL SEE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE
LAKESHORE AREAS BORDERING LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SLIGHTER COOLER
TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER RELATIVELY HUMIDITY NEAR THE
SURFACE.
LATER TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE AND A 30
TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE INSTABILITY
DOES NOT APPEAR AS IF IT WILL BE AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER.....FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES...
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WILL BE IN PLACE.
AS A RESULT...IF ANY STORMS DO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS INSTEAD OF SEVERE HAIL. SPC
HAS MOST OF NEW YORK OUTLINED WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AREA.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...FOLLOWED THE TREND DEPICTED BY
THE WARMER GFS BIASED CORRECTED FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHILE ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT STAYS JUST WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STILL KEEP MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A STRETCH OF MID SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...A SUBTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL YIELD A NOTICEABLY COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER REGIME. RATHER THAN EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF JULY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO MERCURY LEVELS THAT
WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL ALL COME AS A
RESULT OF THE EXITING OF A SULTRY RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH
WILL BE REPLACED BY AN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER ALL OF
NORTH AMERICA. THE PSEUDO-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH TWIN TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND QUEBEC. THE DETAILS...
A BROAD...COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT TO THE EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY 100M HGT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AXIS
OF ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE DAY...THEN A TRAILING DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EXITING SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP THE RAIN INTACT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL COVER BOTH PERIODS WITH CAT POPS...BUT QPF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS
THAT UP TO THIS POINT HAD BEEN IN THE MID TEENS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TO NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDAY HIGHS OF 70 TO 75 BEFORE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALL IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MERCURY READINGS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER IN MANY AREAS THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE....WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...THE BACK EDGE TO THE SOAKING RAIN WILL BE FOUND PUSHING
EAST FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL BE
CROSSING OVERHEAD. DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WITH THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUD COVER
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A FEEL OF AUTUMN IN THE AIR AS H85 TEMPS NEAR ZERO C WILL
CORRESPOND TO NEAR SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S F.
IT WILL THEN BECOME DOWNRIGHT CHILLY (IF NOT COLD) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD STILL
ENCOURAGE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT THE AMOUNT OF
DRY SYNOPTIC AIR AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
WORK AGAINST THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPS SHOULD THUS FALL TO NEAR 40
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SRN TIER AND EASTERN LK ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL LEND TO THE
RISK FOR SOME FROST...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF OUR
MINDS.
A LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES...THE MOISTURE STARVED AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWERS. RATHER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 60 WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE 30S WILL DOMINATE THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF FROST
IN PLACE FOR THOSE COLDER AREAS
.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NUDGE EASTWARD. HIGHS OF 60
TO 65 ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MID 70S)
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING OVER THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER RELATIVELY HUMIDITY AND
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG.
LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VCNTY OF PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 220726
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
326 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTS WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ASIDE FROM SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES...THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...WE ARE
SEEING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE AREAS BORDERING LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE SLIGHTER COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN HIGHER
RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES NEAR THE SURFACE.
LATER TODAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE ADDED LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE AND A 30
TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...THE STABILITY PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR AS IF THEY WILL BE
AS GOOD AS THEY WERE ON TUESDAY...BUT FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. AS A RESULT...SPC HAS
MOST OF NEW YORK OUTLINED WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...FOLLOWED THE TREND DEPICTED BY
THE WARMER GFS BIASED CORRECTED FORECAST.
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHILE ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT STAYS JUST WEST OF NEW YORK STATE. AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH...THE TIGHT LOW LEVEL THETA-E
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND FAR
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. AS A RESULT...THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY STAY
NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STILL KEEP MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR CWA.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER A STRETCH OF MID SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY...A SUBTLE CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL YIELD A NOTICABLY COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER REGIME. RATHER THAN EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES
MORE TYPICAL OF JULY...WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO MERCURY LEVELS THAT
WILL AVERAGE SOME 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL ALL COME AS A
RESULT OF THE EXITING OF A SULTRY RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST...WHICH
WILL BE REPLACED BY AN EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW OVER ALL OF
NORTH AMERICA. THE PSEUDO-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL FEATURE A RIDGE
OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WITH TWIN TROUGHS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND QUEBEC. THE DETAILS...
A BROAD...COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING
WILL SLOWLY PIVOT TO THE EAST COAST BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE LIFT
PROVIDED BY 100M HGT FALLS AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE AXIS
OF ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN
DURING THE DAY...THEN A TRAILING DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE EXITING SFC TROUGH WILL KEEP THE RAIN INTACT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. WILL COVER BOTH PERIODS WITH CAT POPS...BUT QPF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD
SHOULD AVERAGE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY. H85 TEMPS
THAT UP TO THIS POINT HAD BEEN IN THE MID TEENS WILL TUMBLE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY THURSDAY EVENING...THEN TO NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO MIDDAY HIGHS OF 70 TO 75 BEFORE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALL IN THE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. MERCURY READINGS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY COULD BE 20
DEGREES LOWER IN MANY AREAS THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE....WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
ON FRIDAY...THE BACKEDGE TO THE SOAKING RAIN WILL BE FOUND PUSHING
EAST FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY AS THE SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL BE
CROSSING OVERHEAD. DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH DRIER AIR FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...WITH THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUD COVER
GIVING WAY TO INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL
LEAVE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL
BE A FEEL OF AUTUMN IN THE AIR AS H85 TEMPS NEAR ZERO C WILL
CORRESPOND TO NEAR SFC TEMPS IN THE 50S F.
IT WILL THEN BECOME DOWNRIGHT CHILLY (IF NOT COLD) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE A ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...A VERY DRY AIRMASS SHOULD STILL
ENCOURAGE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE MARINGALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT THE AMOUNT OF
DRY SYNOPTIC AIR AND PRESENCE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD
WORK AGAINST THIS POTENTIAL. TEMPS SHOULD THUS FALL TO NEAR 40
ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE SRN TIER AND EASTERN LK ONTARIO REGION. THIS WILL LEND TO THE
RISK FOR SOME FROST...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS IN THE BACK OF OUR
MINDS.
A LARGE SFC HIGH CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL NOSE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVES...THE MOISTURE STARVED AIRMASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ANY SHOWERS. RATHER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF 60 WHILE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT AWAY FROM THE LAKES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE
PARKED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAINS WHILE 30S WILL DOMINATE THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF FROST
IN PLACE FOR THOSE COLDER AREAS
.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL NUDGE EASTWARD. HIGHS OF 60
TO 65 ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS (MID 70S)
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING OVER THE GENESEE
VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR HAS RESULTED IN HIGHER RELATIVELY HUMIDITY AND
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG.
LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VCNTY OF PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK ON THURSDAY...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 220006
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
806 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA AND USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OFF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING MCS...LOCATED JUST
EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY...MAY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY OVERNIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE
LATEST STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS
UNSTABLE AS IT IS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODEST SHEAR PROFILES
COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
WARM AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A CORRESPONDING BROAD
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER THAT EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
BRINGING YET MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TO THE AREA. AN INFLUX OF COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER AS THE AREA
OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST...ACROSS
THE HUDSON VALLEY...BY THIS POINT. BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND 850MB TEMPS THAT WILL
FALL FROM +12C TO +8C THROUGH THE DAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 70S...WITH MID 70S IN THE FINGER LAKES...AHEAD OF A
STEEPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WE CAN EXPECT ONE MORE BATCH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FRONT TO BRING ONE MORE
SOAKING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO 0C ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION PAVING THE WAY FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MEANDERING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-30S ACROSS
THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AT THIS POINT AM NOT
THINKING THAT FROST WILL BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. NUDGES EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S SATURDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 60S...NEAR NORMAL...BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
EARLY EVENING...THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...THEN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KART IS THE MCS NORTH OF LAKE
ONTARIO PERSISTS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS FROM
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
KART.
LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VCNTY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP/WCH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TJP/WCH
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 211952
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA AND USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR (ML CAPES AVERAGING 1500-2000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN
TO -8) AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 203 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE CWA SOUTH OF
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 01Z.
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS IN
PLACE. THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND WEAK LAKE
BREEZES WILL SERVE AS THE THE PRIMARY INITIATORS FOR CONVECTION.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE THE AIR WILL BE MORE STABLE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING MCS...LOCATED
JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY...MAY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE
LATEST STABILITY INDICIES SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS
UNSTABLE AS IT IS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODEST SHEAR PROFILES
COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
WARM AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE AREA WILL BE LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH A CORRESPONDING BROAD
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING
INSTABILITY TO KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER THAT EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THANKS
TO THE CONTINUED ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK THURSDAY
BRINGING YET MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TO THE AREA. AN INFLUX OF COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE REGION
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER AS THE AREA
OF GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST...ACROSS
THE HUDSON VALLEY...BY THIS POINT. BETWEEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND 850MB TEMPS THAT WILL
FALL FROM +12C TO +8C THROUGH THE DAY...LOOK FOR HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER 70S...WITH MID 70S IN THE FINGER LAKES...AHEAD OF A
STEEPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES THAT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
WE CAN EXPECT ONE MORE BATCH OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND THE SURFACE FRONT TO BRING ONE MORE
SOAKING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO 0C ON FRIDAY...EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION PAVING THE WAY FOR CHILLY TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A COOL AND DRY WEEKEND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MEANDERING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE
CHILLY BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID-30S ACROSS
THE COLDER SPOTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...AT THIS POINT AM NOT
THINKING THAT FROST WILL BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN AS THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A DEEPENING LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY EACH DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. NUDGES EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S SATURDAY
CLIMBING BACK TO THE UPPER 60S...NEAR NORMAL...BY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTS
WITH WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND A FRONT THAT IS STALLED OVER
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY
IMPACT AREAS OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT QUIETER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VCNTY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 211855
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA AND USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR (ML CAPES AVERAGING 1500-2000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN
TO -8) AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 203 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE CWA SOUTH OF
JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 01Z.
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THUNDERSTORMS AS
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS IN
PLACE. THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED OVER LAKE ONTARIO AND WEAK LAKE
BREEZES WILL SERVE AS THE THE PRIMARY INITIATORS FOR CONVECTION.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE THE AIR WILL BE MORE STABLE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
THIS EVENING. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS GENERAL TREND WILL BE
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING MCS...LOCATED
JUST EAST OF GEORGIAN BAY...MAY IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY COUNTRY
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WILL INDICATE INCREASING POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE
LATEST STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE AS
UNSTABLE AS IT IS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MODEST SHEAR PROFILES
COULD STILL RESULT IN SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
WARM AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL TRACK BY TO
OUR NORTH WHILE THE CONVECTION FROM THE EVENING HOURS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAVE A WARM AND
DAMP NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NOT FALLING OUT
OF THE 60S.
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES THEN START TO DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL OOZE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FASTER
PACKAGE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH. IT NOW TRAILS THE GFS...AND
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM. THE SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE TRAILING
FRONT IS WHAT IS OBVIOUSLY THROWING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE
MODELS...BUT IN ANY CASE...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE LIFTED IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. JUST DO NOT SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
HOLD ONTO THE SLGT CHC THAT WE HAVE FOR THUNDER...AS LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 6 DEG C/KM BY MID MORNING. WILL COMPROMISE AND LEAVE
THE MENTION FOR THE MORNING ONLY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A WET AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 10 DEG F
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
WHILE THE WAVY FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL BE JUST CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TUMBLE INTO THE 40S...WHICH WILL BE QUITE REFRESHING
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MID JULY-LIKE WEATHER.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS H85 TEMPS IN THE
VCNTY OF 4C WILL ONLY SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 F. WHAT IS
MUCH LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
DONE. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW BEING STUBBORN WITH CLEARING OUT THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGT CHC
POPS OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER
A BIT. WILL STILL LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION THOUGH...WHICH AT
THIS POINT FAVORS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NAME
OF THE GAME THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD ONLY YIELD
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS
WHILE AREAS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY COULD DROP INTO MID 30S...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A FROST...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD.
A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CREEP NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS VERY UNSTABLE AIR INTERACTS
WITH WEAK LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND A FRONT THAT IS STALLED OVER
LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...PASSING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO MAY
IMPACT AREAS OF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...SOMEWHAT QUIETER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE HEADING EAST TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN THE VCNTY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A WEAK FRONT DRAPED OVER LAKE ONTARIO. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
PICK UP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY.
AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJP
NEAR TERM...TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...TJP
MARINE...TJP
000
FXUS61 KBUF 211801
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
201 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO
STALLS OUT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND SETS THE STAGE FOR PERIODIC
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
AND USHERS IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR (ML CAPES AVERAGING 1500-2000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN
TO -8) AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS A RESULT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH 203 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF THE CWA SOUTH OF JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 01Z.
THIS WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE STALLED FRONT AND THE
LAKE ERIE BREEZE WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY INITIATORS FOR
CONVECTION.
THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE THE AIR WILL BE MORE STABLE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...PRECIP PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE AT THEIR HIGHEST DUE TO THE
COMBINATION DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHOWERS/STORMS ADVECTING EAST INTO THE AREA
ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS SUGGESTED BY EACH
OF THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF IN SOME FORM. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...WILL
RESERVE THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY/ FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES THEN DROPPING BACK TO THE CHANCE RANGE OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND AS INSTABILITY
WANES SOMEWHAT.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. 850 MB TEMPS OF +15C TO +16C WILL ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN AREAS AWAY
FROM ANY LAKE INFLUENCES TODAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
THEN FOLLOWING FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SUMMERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY...
AS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A
BROAD SFC LOW FOUND OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE IT WILL BE WARM AND
HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING THOSE OF JULY...THERE WILL BE
SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER TO DEAL WITH AS WELL. OUR UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY MAY END UP BEING RAINFREE. LETS LOOK AT THE
PROS AND CONS TO THIS CONVECTION.
WORKING AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE THAT
WILL LIFT UP ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS COULD BE A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD
THOUGH...AS THE RIDGE COULD HELP TO THIN SOME OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER. THAT WOULD LEAD TO GREATER DIURNALLY INDUCED INSTABILITY THAN
IS BEING FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
PASSING RIDGE IN TANDEM WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES COULD MINIMIZE THE
THREAT OF STORMS (AS WAS ALSO EXPRESSED IN A PREVIOUS STORM
PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSION)...OR AT LEAST HOLD THEM OFF UNTIL MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EITHER WAY YOU SLICE IT...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST 500-1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO THERE SHOULD BE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEAL WITH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON TWO AREAS. THE FIRST BEING A NEARLY STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE FOUND FROM THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
ONTARIO TO THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND THE SECOND BEING A LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF LK ERIE. THE LATTER WOULD BE OF
MORE CONCERN BECAUSE THIS WOULD BE THE TRIGGER TO RELEASE THE
GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE WRN COUNTIES. THIS LEADS US TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
LETS STATE RIGHT UP FRONT THAT SPC HAS OUR FORECAST AREA OUTLINED IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING SAID AND
AS WAS THE CASE IN YESTERDAYS MORNING DISCUSSION...AM NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED WITH THE OVERALL SET UP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WE COULD HAVE
SUPPRESSED INSTABILITY FROM CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT I AM JUST AS UNIMPRESSED WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR
(GENERALLY <25 M/S) AND LACKLUSTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 DEG
C/KM. ONE HAS TO LOOK AT A DEEPER LAYER (0-6 KM) TO FIND IMPRESSIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 M/S. A TELLING SIGN WILL LIKELY BE HOW
MUCH SUN WE GET DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND IF WE
CAN GET OUR CAPES UP OVER 1500 J/KG...SOME LARGE HAIL. PWAT VALUES
>1.5 INCHES WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WINDS TO MOVE THE STORMS ALONG AND
MINIMIZE THE POTENTIAL FOR HYDRO ISSUES. BOILING THIS ALL DOWN...
WILL USE LIKELY POPS BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY ENHANCED TSRA
WORDING. WILL DEFER THIS TO LATER SHIFTS FOR FURTHER REVIEW.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW WILL TRACK BY TO OUR
NORTH WHILE THE CONVECTION FROM THE EVENING HOURS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
STABILIZATION OF THE LOWEST LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAVE A WARM AND DAMP
NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NOT FALLING OUT OF THE
60S.
THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES THEN START TO DIVERGE ON THE HANDLING
OF THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL OOZE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY. IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FASTER
PACKAGE IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH. IT NOW TRAILS THE GFS...AND
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE NAM. THE SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE TRAILING
FRONT IS WHAT IS OBVIOUSLY THROWING A MONKEY WRENCH INTO THE
MODELS...BUT IN ANY CASE...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THERE WILL BE A WEALTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE LIFTED IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. JUST DO NOT SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
HOLD ONTO THE SLGT CHC THAT WE HAVE FOR THUNDER...AS LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 6 DEG C/KM BY MID MORNING. WILL COMPROMISE AND LEAVE
THE MENTION FOR THE MORNING ONLY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A WET AND
NOTICEABLY COOLER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SOME 10 DEG F
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
WHILE THE WAVY FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...THE
SUPPORTING H5 TROUGH WILL BE JUST CROSSING THE LOWER LAKES. THIS
SHOULD KEEP SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TUMBLE INTO THE 40S...WHICH WILL BE QUITE REFRESHING
AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF MID JULY-LIKE WEATHER.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS AS H85 TEMPS IN THE
VCNTY OF 4C WILL ONLY SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 60 F. WHAT IS
MUCH LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
DONE. THE 00Z GFS IS NOW BEING STUBBORN WITH CLEARING OUT THE
SHOWERS AND LEFTOVER CLOUDS...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST SLGT CHC
POPS OVER THE REGION DURING THE MORNING AND INCREASE OUR CLOUD COVER
A BIT. WILL STILL LEAN MORE ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION THOUGH...WHICH AT
THIS POINT FAVORS A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NAME
OF THE GAME THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 0C SHOULD ONLY YIELD
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY...
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LIKEWISE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN ON
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS
WHILE AREAS FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY COULD DROP INTO MID 30S...POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A FROST...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD.
A GRADUAL REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AS THE COLDEST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO CREEP NORTH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
AS FAR SOUTH AS WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY IS
SLIDING EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH MID MORNING. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR WITHIN THESE SHOWERS/STORMS AS THEY SLIDE EASTWARD...WITH
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.
ONCE THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST...EXPECT MAINLY
DRY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AND
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BRIEF LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY RIDE EAST ALONG A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOMEWHAT QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL
REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION...AS WELL AS THE DAILY DEVELOPMENT
OF LAKE BREEZES. AS A RESULT...WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD ALSO REMAIN
RELATIVELY MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES.
LOOKING A BIT FURTHER OUT...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS VEERING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF THE
LAKES WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR/TJP
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH/WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR
| 
