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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231231
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING...WHICH IS SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS MVFR. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN SPITE OF AN AREA OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO SW NY FROM NRN OH.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS WNY BETWEEN 15-19Z...SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM
THE VFR FORECAST.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231231
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
731 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WESTERN NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
IN ADVANCE OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL AT BEST AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE
CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL EXACERBATE MELTING
OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE
FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP FORECAST BACK A COUPLE
OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT WILL DOG THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING...WHICH IS SHOWING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND REMAINS MVFR. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY IN SPITE OF AN AREA OF
WEAKENING SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING INTO SW NY FROM NRN OH.
UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND
GIVEN MODEL TRENDS SUGGESTING THAT THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS WNY BETWEEN 15-19Z...SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM
THE VFR FORECAST.

LATER THIS EVENING...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NOSE OF
THIS JET WILL ALSO MARK THE LEADING A BROADER AREA OF RAINFALL
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 06Z...BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ON THE LAKES THIS MORNING...THE RESPITE
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON LAKE
ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK
FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THESE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE
WATERS...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FROM
BUFFALO TO RIPLEY TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT
CROSSES THE OTTAWA VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE
SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD
ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231100
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231100
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
600 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN: 1) FLOODING ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES MELTING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND 2) A
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

COMPLEX DOUBLE BARRELED LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MONDAY JUST TO THE WEST OF NEW YORK. EARLY MONDAY A
SHARP WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SHIFTING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT QUICKLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A DRY
SLOT AND STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH MOST LIKELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT COULD NOT QUITE RULE OUT A LOW CHANCE OF VERY PATCHY
SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOW 60S
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A 950MB INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT ANY STRONG WIND
GUSTS FROM A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN AND KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARMER SURFACE TEMPS IN CHECK UNTIL THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THIS WARM UP WILL CONTINUE THE RAPID SNOWMELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW CORE
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY SHOWED THE SNOW PACK HAS AN AVERAGE OF 4-6
INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE
FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING
SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING
WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WARNING AND HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY AT LEAST TO MINOR
STAGES SO RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BUFFALO CREEKS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA MONDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS BUT THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING
WIND ENERGY FROM A NOW STRONGER 60-75KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT TO BEGIN
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL ERODE WITH
THE COLD ADVECTION AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE. A HIGH
WIND WATCH REMAINS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NEW YORK COUNTIES WHICH
TYPICALLY SEEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WHEN STRONG CUTTER LOWS PASS TO THE
WEST. HAVE HELD OFF ON THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WARNING VERSES
STICKING WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS SHIFT BUT WOULD AT LEAST
EXPECT ALL COUNTIES TO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS BEING THE COUNTIES UNDER THE
WATCH. CIPS ANALOGS FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATE THAT SIMILAR PATTERNS
HAVE SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 50KTS WHICH WOULD
INCREASE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER EXACTLY WHICH COUNTIES IS STILL MORE
UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STRONG LOW.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DOWN TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS MAY
CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED INTO PART OF TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
SLOW TO EXIT. 850MB TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BACK TO AROUND -10C BY
LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LAKE-850 INSTABILITY.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RISE TO 8KFT AND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS EAST OF THE LAKES BY LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MAY FALL INTO THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY WITH
CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION THEN DOWN INTO THE 20S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO
CONTINUE CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE NOREASTER`
LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE
WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF
LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY COMPLETED ON FRIDAY CAME UP WITH A GENERAL 4 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE HARDEST HIT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 TODAY...REMAIN VERY MILD TONIGHT
ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 40S THEN RISING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY.
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE ABOVE 32 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE
VERY EFFICIENT AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH
TONIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES
WITH AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
THAT RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN
ANYTIME NOW WITH MELTING UNDER WAY....SO AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS
THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST
THREAT IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS
FROM THIS WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES
CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO... CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE
SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER
CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
A FLOOD WARNING IF WE SEE STEADY RISES. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION HAD LESS SNOW... WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG
HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH/SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 231012
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 231012
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
512 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FURTHER TONIGHT WITH MORE RAIN AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT CROSSED THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS HAS EXITED WESTERN NY AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF
LEAVING THE NORTH COUNTRY AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN OHIO IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WESTERN
NY THIS MORNING AS ANOTHER SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS AS IT CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE CONTINUED ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXACERBATE MELTING OF THE RECENT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THIS WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE
LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE FINGER LAKES...THOUGH HAVE KNOCKED THE TEMP
FORECAST BACK A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER THAT
WILL DOG THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS INCREASINGLY WARM
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHWARDS ON THE NOSE OF A 65KT LOW LEVEL JET. A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SHIELD MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...HOWEVER WITH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
ORIENTATION TO THE FLOW AND THE INVERSION SETTING UP NEAR THE
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE-TOP...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...WHERE A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION AS DEEP ISENTROPIC UPLIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE NOSE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET MOVES ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD DIMINISH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK...KEEPING THOSE AMOUNTS TO AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HEAVIEST-HIT SNOWFALL AREAS TONIGHT
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH ACROSS THE
NIAGARA PENINSULA AND NEAR THE PA BORDER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ON
THE TUG. NONETHELESS...THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER FROM THE SNOWMELT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CREATE A PERSISTENT FLOOD
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BUFFALO CREEKS AND AREAS WITH POOR
DRAINAGE...ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KART THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SHOWERS HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER NRN OH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS
MORNING...POTENTIALLY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY WILL LEAD TO STRONG
DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND LOCALIZED TURBULENCE ALONG THE LAKE ERIE
SHORELINE TONIGHT WITH LLWS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE AS A STRONG LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS RAIN WITH MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKES AND HAVE CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ALL REMAINING ADVISORIES. THE RESPITE WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FRESHEN ON
LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE OTTAWA
VALLEY AND MOVES INTO QUEBEC MONDAY EVENING WHILE SWINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD ACCOMPANYING THIS DEEP LOW.

GALES WILL SUBSIDE LATER ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS LABRADOR. A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE LAKES WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK BEFORE NORTHERLY
WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING COASTAL LOW TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-019-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     NYZ019-085.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST
         MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S OR ARE
SLOWLY RISING. THE MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR TO SNOWMELT IS THE RISING
DEWPOINTS...NOW CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND EVEN NEAR
OR ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH AREA TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 40S.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230313
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1013 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY
WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S OR ARE
SLOWLY RISING. THE MORE IMPORTANT FACTOR TO SNOWMELT IS THE RISING
DEWPOINTS...NOW CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND EVEN NEAR
OR ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH AREA TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING FROM THE UPPER
30S TO THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 40S.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WCH
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230210
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 23Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN NY AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TUG HILL BUT
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UPPER 20S TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...CONTINUING THE
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE TOP OF THE TUG HILL AND
THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY OF LEWIS COUNTY.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230210
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
910 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 23Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN NY AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TUG HILL BUT
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UPPER 20S TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...CONTINUING THE
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE TOP OF THE TUG HILL AND
THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY OF LEWIS COUNTY.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOW MELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOW MELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOW MELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. INDIVIDUAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR THESE CREEKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED...AS ALL ARE NOW FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST MINOR
FLOOD LEVELS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS
CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND
SILVER CREEK.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 230001
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
701 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 23Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN NY AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TUG HILL BUT
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UPPER 20S TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...CONTINUING THE
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE TOP OF THE TUG HILL AND
THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY OF LEWIS COUNTY.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOWMELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOWMELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH
DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL TRIBUTARIES MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 230001
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
701 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S AT 23Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO WESTERN NY AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY AND OVER THE TUG HILL BUT
DEWPOINTS RUNNING UPPER 20S TO JUST BELOW FREEZING...CONTINUING THE
WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR THE TOP OF THE TUG HILL AND
THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY OF LEWIS COUNTY.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOWMELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOWMELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH
DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL TRIBUTARIES MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA/WCH
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA/WCH
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 222308
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
608 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING 50-55 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K LAYER SIGNALING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE. POCKETS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE TUG HILL CONTINUING
THE WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOWMELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOWMELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH
DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL TRIBUTARIES MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 222308
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
608 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING 50-55 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K LAYER SIGNALING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE. POCKETS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE TUG HILL CONTINUING
THE WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOWMELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOWMELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOW PACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOW PACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE
ALREADY WELL ABOVE 32 THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY RISE
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT
AT RAPIDLY MELTING THE DEEP SNOW PACK. THIS...ALONG WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER INCH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL TRIBUTARIES WITH
AREAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THE AREAS IN FAR WESTERN NEW YORK THAT
RECEIVED THE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW STORMS THIS PAST WEEK.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.
FLOODING OF SOME STREETS AND RESIDENTIAL BASEMENTS COULD BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING....SO HAVE ISSUED AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS THREAT.

THERE WILL ALSO BE THE RISK FOR THE FLOODING OF THE VARIOUS
TRIBUTARIES ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK. THE GREATEST THREAT IS
ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS FROM THIS
WEEKS LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...
CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR
CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH
DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK. FLOOD WARNINGS FOR SOME OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL TRIBUTARIES MAY BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOW PACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
         EVENING FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 222058
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
358 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR MOVING
BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING OF RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A
RETURN OF MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KBUF VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATING 50-55 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K LAYER SIGNALING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE. POCKETS OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL AT OR BELOW
FREEZING ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE TUG HILL CONTINUING
THE WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
AND THIS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO. REGION WILL REMAIN IN CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. HOWEVER...WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND DIFFICULTY
LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM TONIGHT...HAVE
TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS.
THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING ALL RAIN. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING LITTLE WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40.

SUNDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR +10C
WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID 40S TO NEAR
50 WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY BRING A WIDELY
SCATTERED/SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN: 1) THE WARM UP
WITH SOME RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FLOODING AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH
WIND EVENT ON MONDAY...FOR WHICH A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

PHASING BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JETS OVER THE MIDWEST WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL ADVECT ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NEW YORK STATE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS WARM FRONT PASSAGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PUSHING ACROSS NEW YORK STATE...WITH A
CONSENSUS OF 70+ KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THIS INITIAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BRING A STRONG WIND THREAT ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...INCLUDING DUNKIRK...DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. THE OTHER IMPACT OF THESE SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS WILL BE TO EAT AWAY AT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE WARM
FRONT...WHICH COULD HELP TO LIMIT QPF AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER THE
WARM FRONT AND QG FORCING WILL LIKELY OVERWHELM THE DOWNSLOPE...SO
QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 0.25 OR SLIGHTLY MORE STILL SEEM REASONABLE.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS WILL
BE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP EXPEDITE THE SNOW MELT PROCESS.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENT AS
WINDS ALOFT ARE MIXED TO THE SURFACE. IN COMPARING THE FORECAST
PATTERN TO LOCAL RESEARCH ON HIGH WIND EVENTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK
THIS EVENT MATCHES VERY WELL TO THE AVERAGE PATTERN SEEN DURING HIGH
WIND EVENTS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL ALSO PUSH INTO THE
60S...AND LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE
LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES.

THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A LINE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 0.10 OR SO OF QPF.

TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY WINDY BEHIND
THE MONDAY NIGHTS COLD FRONT PASSAGE...HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA.

SNOWMELT AND FLOODING POTENTIAL...
THE WARM UP AND PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE STILL ON TRACK AND APPEAR
FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING FROM THE SNOWMELT. ONCE SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING SNOWPACK WILL
BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH MEASUREMENTS FROM
FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO BETWEEN 20 AND 40
INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT
MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER FORECASTED CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY
RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
ADDED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HIGH WIND THREAT ON MONDAY. THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG
THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN
WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER
VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS MIX DOWN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE LAKES USHERING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND
BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ001>003-010>012-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ006-007.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     NYZ019.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
         LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
         FOR LOZ042>045-062>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 221752
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1252 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN
OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS A
FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SURFACE AND ROAD TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS
OUTLINED BELOW.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE FINGER LAKES WHILE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.

WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...
CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW THROUGH ABOUT 19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING
OVER TO LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ006-007.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 221724
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1224 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN
OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS A
FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SURFACE AND ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS OUTLINED BELOW.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE FINGER LAKES WHILE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.

WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...
CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW THROUGH ABOUT 19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING
OVER TO LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 221724
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1224 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN
OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS A
FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SURFACE AND ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS OUTLINED BELOW.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE FINGER LAKES WHILE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION.

WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...
CONSEQUENTLY THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW THROUGH ABOUT 19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING
OVER TO LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING.
FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE
TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT
LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 221527
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN
OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS A
FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SURFACE AND ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS OUTLINED BELOW.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE FINGER LAKES WHILE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS
WILL LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE
CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT IN THESE AREAS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW BETWEEN 17-19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO
LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING
RAIN WILL ALSO  BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE...BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT KJHW AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.




OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ001-002-
     010>012-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK





000
FXUS61 KBUF 221527
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1027 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
COUNTRY BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN
OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS A
FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH AND
A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...SURFACE AND ROAD TEMPERATURES MAY STILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE
LOCATIONS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS AS OUTLINED BELOW.

LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND THE FINGER LAKES WHILE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS
WILL LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE
CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT IN THESE AREAS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW BETWEEN 17-19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO
LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING
RAIN WILL ALSO  BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE...BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT KJHW AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.




OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ001-002-
     010>012-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA/WOOD
NEAR TERM...TMA/WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 221233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARE ALREADY OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHERN OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AS A FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES AS WELL AS LEWIS COUNTY WHERE
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE RISES LAG THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE START OF RAINFALL VERSUS THE POINT AT WHICH READINGS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A LATER START TIME
AND HENCE OF A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SPEAKING
OF TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND
THE FINGER LAKES WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS
WILL LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE
CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT IN THESE AREAS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW BETWEEN 17-19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO
LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING
RAIN WILL ALSO  BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE...BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT KJHW AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.




OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221233
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
733 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARE ALREADY OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHERN OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AS A FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES AS WELL AS LEWIS COUNTY WHERE
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE RISES LAG THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE START OF RAINFALL VERSUS THE POINT AT WHICH READINGS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A LATER START TIME
AND HENCE OF A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SPEAKING
OF TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND
THE FINGER LAKES WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. CIGS
WILL LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WARM AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO DISPLACE
CURRENTLY SUBFREEZING AIR IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITATION WILL
START OUT IN THESE AREAS AS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJHW BETWEEN 17-19Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO
LIQUID RAIN THEREAFTER AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FREEZING
RAIN WILL ALSO  BE AN ISSUE IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT KART/KGTB.

IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN...LLWS WILL ALSO BE AN
ISSUE...BRIEFLY THIS MORNING AT KJHW AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE AS A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION.




OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
528 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARE ALREADY OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHERN OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AS A FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES AS WELL AS LEWIS COUNTY WHERE
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE RISES LAG THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE START OF RAINFALL VERSUS THE POINT AT WHICH READINGS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A LATER START TIME
AND HENCE OF A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SPEAKING
OF TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND
THE FINGER LAKES WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR
INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 221028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
528 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARE ALREADY OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHERN OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AS A FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES AS WELL AS LEWIS COUNTY WHERE
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE RISES LAG THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE START OF RAINFALL VERSUS THE POINT AT WHICH READINGS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A LATER START TIME
AND HENCE OF A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SPEAKING
OF TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND
THE FINGER LAKES WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR
INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
528 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARE ALREADY OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHERN OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AS A FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES AS WELL AS LEWIS COUNTY WHERE
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE RISES LAG THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE START OF RAINFALL VERSUS THE POINT AT WHICH READINGS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A LATER START TIME
AND HENCE OF A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SPEAKING
OF TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND
THE FINGER LAKES WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR
INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK









000
FXUS61 KBUF 221028
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
528 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING AS SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ACCELERATE MELTING OF
RECENT HEAVY SNOWS...CREATING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL
THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD AND SNOWY WEATHER...WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BEGIN TO THAW OUT STARTING TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...RESULTING IN BROAD WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
INDICATIVE OF THIS WARM ADVECTION ARE ALREADY OVER-SPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST OF A SERIES OF WARM FRONTS LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A 115KT 250MB UPPER LEVEL JET OVER
NORTHERN OH/PA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE JET. THAT SAID...WITHOUT A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
AS A FOCAL POINT...LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL BE RATHER WEAK AND DIFFUSE
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS MODEST...WITH BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER INCH EXPECTED THOROUGH TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT OF A RELIEF
GIVEN THE EXTREME SNOWPACK IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS WILL BE SLOWER TO WARM
ABOVE FREEZING AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. AS SUCH HAVE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER ZONES AS WELL AS LEWIS COUNTY WHERE
IT IS MOST LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURE RISES LAG THE
DEVELOPING PRECIP. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERIE AND WYOMING
COUNTIES...HOWEVER THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
TIMING OF THE START OF RAINFALL VERSUS THE POINT AT WHICH READINGS
WARM ABOVE FREEZING...AND FOR NOW AM GOING WITH A LATER START TIME
AND HENCE OF A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WITH THE BULK
OF THE RAINFALL OCCURRING AFTER TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. SPEAKING
OF TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE DAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE LAKE PLAINS AND
THE FINGER LAKES WHILE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENTIRELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE EXIT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET-STREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TWO BIG CONCERNS ARE BEING WATCHED CLOSELY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD. THESE ARE: 1) FLOODING FROM SNOW MELT
AND 2) A POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT. FIRST WE WILL COVER THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND ON SUNDAY WITH MORE DETAILS ON THE
BIG CONCERNS FOLLOWING.

DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ROUNDING THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE
MOIST AIR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK SUNDAY AS NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOWS MERGE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. 850MB
TEMPS WILL RISE FROM +5C TO +10C WHICH SHOULD BOOST SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO TO MID TO UPPER 40S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. A WEAK WARM FRONT ALOFT WILL
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LIFT SHOULD ONLY
BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES.

FOCUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN TURNS TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING -3SD
SURFACE LOW CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO OUR WEST. THIS
IS A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HIGH WIND EVENTS AND 00Z MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET WHICH RANGES BETWEEN 70KTS
(NAM12) AND 90KTS (GFS40) LIFTING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK SUNDAY NIGHT THEN VEERING TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WHILE SLACKENING TO 50-60KTS. ASSOCIATED HIGH WIND IMPACTS ARE
MENTIONED BELOW.

THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
FORCING IN THE PRESENCE OF PWATS OF AN INCH TO AND INCH AND A
QUARTER TO BRING A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY. QPF
FROM THIS REMAINS AT 0.25-0.50 INCHES WHICH WILL ADD TO A QUICKLY
MELTING SNOWPACK. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A SHARP DRY SLOT
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK NEAR
60 DEGREES THEN A COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA LATER
MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL
USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER AIRMASS BY TUESDAY.

SNOWMELT...
ONCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THE RIPENING
SNOWPACK WILL BEGIN TO LET LOOSE WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ACROSS AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED LAST WEEKS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. SNOW DEPTH
MEASUREMENTS FROM FRIDAY INDICATED SNOWPACK HAS COMPACTED DOWN TO
BETWEEN 20 AND 40 INCHES WITH AN AVERAGE OF 4-6 INCHES OF LIQUID
LOCKED UP. SNOWMELT MODELING COVERING A TIME RANGE FROM LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY INDICATED 50 INCHES OF SNOW COULD MELT UNDER
FORECASTED CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...ALL OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK IS
EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY RAISING THE CONCERNS FOR FLOODING WITH FINER
DETAILS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AND HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

HIGH WINDS...
THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB JET MONDAY NIGHT IS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER
NORTHWARD FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND
POSSIBLY THE BLACK RIVER VALLEY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SOUTHWEST WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS AS WIND ENERGY FROM 50-60KT 850MB WINDS
MIX DOWN. MAX WINDS GUSTS STILL LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
ADVISORY/WARNING CRITERIA. HAVE OPTED TO JUST HIGHLIGHT STRONG WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SHIFT AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER
MODEL RUN TO SEE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
HIGH WIND WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK
INCLUDING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
FOR A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS LAKE INDUCED
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS CLIMB TO AROUND 10KFT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH MAY BRING
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY BEHIND A POSSIBLE
NOREASTER` LIFTING ALONG THE EAST COAST. A FRESH BLAST OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THE WEAK LOW/SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO THEN AGAIN BRING RENEWED
CHANCES OF LAKE EFFECT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR
INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
NEARSHORE ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING HIGH AND
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS JAMES BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A MUCH DEEPER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES MONDAY WILL USHER IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
COLD AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT
WILL LIKELY KEEP SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SNOW SURVEY WAS COMPLETED FRIDAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ019>021.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
     EST TONIGHT FOR NYZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/WOOD
MARINE...WOOD
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK








000
FXUS61 KBUF 220434
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1134 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OFF LAKE ERIE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND COMPLETELY GONE NOW
WITH ANY FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STRETCHING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO CANADA...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND HAS BROADENED INTO A WEAK AREA OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW AS DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS LOST. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FRESH DUSTING.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS LEWIS COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE SHORT
WINDOW OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORELINES...COLDER INLAND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. OTHERWISE A PLUME OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF BOTH LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA AND LEAVING
VFR BEHIND.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE. ON SATURDAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK IN THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS
COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 220434
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1134 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OFF LAKE ERIE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND COMPLETELY GONE NOW
WITH ANY FLURRIES COMING TO AN END. LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS STRETCHING
FROM THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND INTO CANADA...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND HAS BROADENED INTO A WEAK AREA OF
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW AS DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS LOST. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH
NOTHING MORE THAN A FRESH DUSTING.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS LEWIS COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE SHORT
WINDOW OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORELINES...COLDER INLAND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
MVFR VSBY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENDING. OTHERWISE A PLUME OF
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF BOTH LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MVFR CIGS
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO CANADA AND LEAVING
VFR BEHIND.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING LATE. ON SATURDAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AND LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK IN THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS
COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 220241
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
941 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OFF LAKE ERIE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A HINT OF VERY LIGHT
RETURNS LEFT LATE THIS EVENING FROM LAKE ERIE EAST TO LIVINGSTON AND
MONROE COUNTIES. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW VERY LIGHT FLURRIES THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL LIFT NORTH
AND DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT BECOME TOO MILD TO SUPPORT THE
LAKE EFFECT PROCESS. OFF LAKE ERIE THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BROADENED
INTO A WIDE AREA OF MAINLY FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE TUG HILL WHERE UPSLOPE PROCESSES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE SNOW. THIS MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE INCHES UP ON THE
TUG THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO FLURRIES OVERNIGHT AS
THE INVERSION CRASHES. HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WOULD
EXPECT TO DROP IT EARLY. THE BAND PROBABLY DID PRODUCE SOME 3-5 INCH
AMOUNTS IN A FEW SPOTS ON THE TUG HILL DURING ITS BRIEF STRONGER
PHASE EARLIER THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EXPECT CLEARING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES.

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS LEWIS COUNTY. THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN GIVEN THE SHORT
WINDOW OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPS WHEN THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORELINES...COLDER INLAND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART THIS
EVENING. A PLUME OF FLURRIES IS STILL FOUND EAST OF THE LAKE FROM
KBUF TO KROC WITH VFR VSBY. THIS SHOULD END COMPLETELY LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A BETTER ORGANIZED BAND HAS DEVELOPED WITH
LOCAL IFR IN MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR
A FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY
BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO KART AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS BUT NOTHING MORE.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE. ON SATURDAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK IN THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS AND LEWIS
COUNTY. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 220004
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOW EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD ALOFT...COUPLED WITH WARMING. BUT FIRST WE HAVE THE TAIL END
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO STILL DEAL WITH...

OFF LAKE ERIE...RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
BAND OF SNOW OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. ALL THAT REMAINS IS A
BROADENING PLUME OF FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...A SIGN
THAT THE BAND HAS LOST ITS DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE. THIS AREA
OF VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND MAY DRIFT
A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...BUT WILL NOT DROP ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH IN A FEW SPOTS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND HAS GAINED
ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING OVER NORTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG
HILL. THIS BAND MAY BRIEFLY DROP 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ON THAT AREA
THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS MAY DROP A QUICK 3-5 INCHES IN THAT AREA.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT A RAPID DEMISE AS INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH CAUSING
DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH TO END. WHAT REMAINS WILL DRIFT NORTH
ACROSS WATERTOWN LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW FLURRIES.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BANDS OF SNOW...THOUGH BY LATE TONIGHT SOME INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AS WARMING ENSUES.

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN AND FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORELINES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF LAKE ERIE IS RAPIDLY FALLING APART THIS
EVENING. A PLUME OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES IS STILL FOUND EAST OF
THE LAKE AND MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF KBUF-KROC. THIS SHOULD END
COMPLETELY LATER THIS EVENING WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES
AT KBUF. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO A BETTER ORGANIZED BAND HAS DEVELOPED WITH
LOCAL IFR IN MODERATE SNOW. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY BRING A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO KART OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING APART BY
MORNING.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASING LATE. ON SATURDAY HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND
LOWER INTO A MID LEVEL DECK IN THE MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CIGS/VSBY WILL REMAIN VFR
INITIALLY...BUT CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE.

FINALLY...SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND AT THE SURFACE...
HOWEVER WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS AND
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...FROM SSW
AT THE SURFACE TO WESTERLY AT 2K FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR/MVFR EXCEPT IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EAST OF BOTH LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 212111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOW EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD ALOFT...COUPLED WITH WARMING. BUT FIRST WE HAVE THE TAIL END
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO STILL DEAL WITH...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THERE ARE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WITH THE
PENINSULA NEAR LONG POINT SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE SEPARATE
SNOWBANDS. CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AND DRIER AIR IS
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS. HOWEVER SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STILL DISTINCT
BAND OF SNOW TO REACH NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW...NEAR 3-4
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND TWO INCHES OR LESS FROM THE
AIRPORT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING THE LAKE SNOWS INLAND THOUGH TAPERING DOWN TO FLURRIES AS IT
REACHES THE GENESEE VALLEY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY THE BAND OF SNOW WEAK AT
THIS TIME...BUT AS WINDS BACK TO A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HORUS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN
SNOWFALL RATE TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON...AND A LONG FETCH ALONG LAKE ONTARIO
ENTERS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO PERHAPS 6 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. FOR THIS WE WILL
HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BANDS OF SNOW...THOUGH BY LATE TONIGHT SOME INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AS WARMING ENSUES.

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN AND FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORELINES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z TWO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES ARE
BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WEAKEN. OFF LAKE ERIE THE SNOW BAND MAY JUST HAVE ENOUGH
STRUCTURE TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KBUF BEFORE
THE BAND FALLS APART ALL TOGETHER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY WINDS
ALIGN ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. AS THIS BAND TOO LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT MAY BRING SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS TO THE KART AIRFIELD
LATER OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING APART.

OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO
HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. LATE IN THE CYCLE...ON THE STRENGTH OF A 50
KNOT LLJ...AND NEARING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 212111
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DISPLAYS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOW EXITING OUR AREA TO THE EAST. BEHIND THIS TROUGH HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD ALOFT...COUPLED WITH WARMING. BUT FIRST WE HAVE THE TAIL END
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO STILL DEAL WITH...

OFF LAKE ERIE...THERE ARE TWO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...WITH THE
PENINSULA NEAR LONG POINT SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR THE SEPARATE
SNOWBANDS. CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE FALLING AND DRIER AIR IS
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS. HOWEVER SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR A STILL DISTINCT
BAND OF SNOW TO REACH NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW...NEAR 3-4
INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE...AND TWO INCHES OR LESS FROM THE
AIRPORT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BRING THE LAKE SNOWS INLAND THOUGH TAPERING DOWN TO FLURRIES AS IT
REACHES THE GENESEE VALLEY.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...REGIONAL RADARS DISPLAY THE BAND OF SNOW WEAK AT
THIS TIME...BUT AS WINDS BACK TO A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LATER
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HORUS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN
SNOWFALL RATE TOWARDS THE TUG HILL REGION AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM
MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON...AND A LONG FETCH ALONG LAKE ONTARIO
ENTERS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THIS EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 3 TO PERHAPS 6 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW. FOR THIS WE WILL
HAVE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AWAY
FROM THE LAKE BANDS OF SNOW...THOUGH BY LATE TONIGHT SOME INCREASE
IN CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN AS WARMING ENSUES.

FOR TOMORROW WE WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALOFT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MOTION PROVIDING FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SYNOPTICALLY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 KNOT 250 HPA JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME VERTICAL LIFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THAT IN
ADDITION TO THE LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LOW QPF RAINFALL. THE CONFIDENCE WILL BE LACKING IN
THE P-TYPE AS A SHALLOW LAYER OF SUBFREEZING AIR MAY LINGER
SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN IN
THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION...AND ALSO LATER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FREEZING RAIN AND FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 NEAR THE LAKE
SHORELINES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THREE SEPARATE WARM FRONTAL SEGMENTS WILL LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER
LAKES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...EACH BRINGING WITH IT A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTURE. THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING WITH A
DRYING TREND OVERNIGHT. OVERALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS FIRST BATCH APPEAR
LIGHT...WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY IN UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE SECOND WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH
JUST A SPOTTY COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THE THIRD WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL BE THE STRONGEST AS A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS
THE LOWER LAKES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST ASCENT
DOES NOT LAST LONG...BUT MAY PRODUCE A 3 TO 5 HOUR PERIOD OF
STEADIER RAIN. THIS IS THE PERIOD TO WATCH AS FAR AS QPF POTENTIAL
GOES...WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL QUICKLY
TAPER OFF TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON
MONDAY MORNING AS A DRY SLOT MOVES OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70+ KNOT JET...WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND ALONG OTHER NORTHWARD
FACING SLOPES IN WESTERN NY AND THE FINGER LAKES...AND POSSIBLY THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...IF THE STRONGER
LOW LEVEL JET VERIFIES SOME OF THESE AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS...WITH SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING CRITERIA
GUSTS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE STRENGTH
AND DIRECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A LOW LEVEL JET FROM A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE TERRAIN WOULD
BE MORE FAVORABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A STEADILY COLDER
AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 50 ON THE
LAKE PLAINS ON SUNDAY...THEN SURGE INTO THE LOWER OR EVEN MID 60S ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY MILD...POSSIBLY
ONLY DOWN AROUND 50 ON THE LAKE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE TO NEAR
50 BY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEWPOINTS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY SPEED UP SNOWMELT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AS A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FORCE A
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH TO CARVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MAY BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THANKSGIVING THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS
MAY GROW COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE THE NEW DAY 7
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z TWO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES ARE
BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WEAKEN. OFF LAKE ERIE THE SNOW BAND MAY JUST HAVE ENOUGH
STRUCTURE TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KBUF BEFORE
THE BAND FALLS APART ALL TOGETHER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY WINDS
ALIGN ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. AS THIS BAND TOO LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT MAY BRING SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS TO THE KART AIRFIELD
LATER OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING APART.

OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO
HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. LATE IN THE CYCLE...ON THE STRENGTH OF A 50
KNOT LLJ...AND NEARING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD BY SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND SCA
WILL AGAIN CONTINUE ON THE LAKES.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WE COMPLETED A SNOW SURVEY TODAY TO GET SNOW DEPTH AND SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS FROM THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. THE SURVEY CAME UP WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SWE IN THE HARDEST HIT AREAS. SEE
BUFPNSBUF FOR THE SPECIFICS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 50 ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER
60S ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN VERY
RAPID SNOWMELT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
ABOUT A HALF INCH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE TWO FOLD. FIRST...THERE IS A GENERAL
RISK OF URBAN FLOODING IN THE TOWNS HARDEST HIT BY THE SNOW AS
MELT WATER POOLS IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. EXCESSIVE
SNOW PILES AND LEAVES BENEATH THE SNOW MAY BLOCK STORM DRAINS.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK FOR RIVER AND CREEK FLOODING. THE
GREATEST RISK IS ON THE BUFFALO CREEKS WHICH DRAIN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS. THIS INCLUDES CAZENOVIA...BUFFALO...CAYUGA...AND ELLICOTT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FLOOD RISK FOR CATTARAUGUS CREEK AND SOME
OF THE SMALLER CREEKS THAT FLOW THROUGH DUNKIRK AND SILVER CREEK.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN ADDITION TO ERIE...GENESEE...AND WYOMING
COUNTIES.

THERE IS ALSO A FAIRLY HEAVY SNOWPACK IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
OATKA WATERSHED...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE BUFFALO CREEKS. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS BASIN FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE INCLUSION IN
THE FLOOD WATCH. THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION HAD LESS SNOW...
WITH TOTALS OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET ON THE TUG HILL. THIS SNOWPACK IS NOT
EXCESSIVE FOR THAT AREA...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.


&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ006>008.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY
         FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
         SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AT
NOONTIME AS DRIER AIR IS WEAKENING THE BANDS FURTHER...AND THE
BACKING WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT THE SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...BROAD MULTI BANDED SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SKI
COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BROAD MULTI BANDED STRUCTURES TO
THE SNOW BANDS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES BUT WITH
SOME HELP FROM LAKE HURON AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALLS
OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. AFTER
WHICH SHIFTING WINDS WILL LOSE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION...AND THE
WEAKENING SNOW BAND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE METRO
BUFFALO AREA THIS EVENING. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL THAT IS LEFT BY TIME IT REACHES METRO BUFFALO. LATER THIS
EVENING THE SNOW BAND SHOULD FINALLY END WITH JUST SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS REMAINING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INLAND ACROSS NE MONROE AND ALONG THE SHORELINE TO OSWEGO AND INLAND
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS WEAK
AT THIS TIME...BUT AS WINDS BACK TO A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOWFALL TOWARDS THE TUG HILL
REGION AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON...AND A LONG
FETCH ALONG LAKE ONTARIO ENTERS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE MINOR...BUT 3 TO PERHAPS 5 INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z TWO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES ARE
BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WEAKEN. OFF LAKE ERIE THE SNOW BAND MAY JUST HAVE ENOUGH
STRUCTURE TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KBUF BEFORE
THE BAND FALLS APART ALL TOGETHER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY WINDS
ALIGN ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. AS THIS BAND TOO LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT MAY BRING SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS TO THE KART AIRFIELD
LATER OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING APART.

OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO
HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. LATE IN THE CYCLE...ON THE STRENGTH OF A 50
KNOT LLJ...AND NEARING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211813
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
113 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DRIVING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES NORTHWARD...WHILE
ALSO SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF A WARM-UP. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX IN THE HILLS...WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AND MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM-UP WILL BRING THE RISK OF
FLOODING TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE HAVE DROPPED THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AT
NOONTIME AS DRIER AIR IS WEAKENING THE BANDS FURTHER...AND THE
BACKING WINDS ARE STARTING TO SHIFT THE SNOW BANDS NORTHWARD.

OFF LAKE ERIE...BROAD MULTI BANDED SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SKI
COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BROAD MULTI BANDED STRUCTURES TO
THE SNOW BANDS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES BUT WITH
SOME HELP FROM LAKE HURON AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALLS
OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. AFTER
WHICH SHIFTING WINDS WILL LOSE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION...AND THE
WEAKENING SNOW BAND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE METRO
BUFFALO AREA THIS EVENING. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL THAT IS LEFT BY TIME IT REACHES METRO BUFFALO. LATER THIS
EVENING THE SNOW BAND SHOULD FINALLY END WITH JUST SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS REMAINING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INLAND ACROSS NE MONROE AND ALONG THE SHORELINE TO OSWEGO AND INLAND
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS WEAK
AT THIS TIME...BUT AS WINDS BACK TO A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOWFALL TOWARDS THE TUG HILL
REGION AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON...AND A LONG
FETCH ALONG LAKE ONTARIO ENTERS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE MINOR...BUT 3 TO PERHAPS 5 INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z TWO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS OFF BOTH GREAT LAKES ARE
BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WEAKEN. OFF LAKE ERIE THE SNOW BAND MAY JUST HAVE ENOUGH
STRUCTURE TO BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KBUF BEFORE
THE BAND FALLS APART ALL TOGETHER. OFF LAKE ONTARIO THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY WINDS
ALIGN ALONG THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. AS THIS BAND TOO LIFTS
NORTHWARD IT MAY BRING SOME BRIEF IFR VSBYS TO THE KART AIRFIELD
LATER OVERNIGHT BEFORE FALLING APART.

OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 18 OR SO
HOURS OF THE TAF CYCLE. LATE IN THE CYCLE...ON THE STRENGTH OF A 50
KNOT LLJ...AND NEARING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY NEAR THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS. EXPECT
MAINLY MVFR/VFR CIGS WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MVFR/VFR WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS EAST OF BOTH
LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211503
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE OFF BOTH EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKE HURON.

OFF LAKE ERIE...BROAD MULTI BANDED SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SKI
COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BROAD MULTI BANDED STRUCTURES TO
THE SNOWBANDS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES BUT WITH
SOME HELP FROM LAKE HURON AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALLS
OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. AFTER
WHICH SHIFTING WINDS WILL LOSE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION...AND THE
WEAKENING SNOW BAND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE METRO
BUFFALO AREA THIS EVENING. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL THAT IS LEFT BY TIME IT REACHES METRO BUFFALO. LATER THIS
EVENING THE SNOWBAND SHOULD FINALLY END WITH JUST SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS REMAINING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INLAND ACROSS NE MONROE AND ALONG THE SHORELINE TO OSWEGO AND INLAND
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS WEAK
AT THIS TIME...BUT AS WINDS BACK TO A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOWFALL TOWARDS THE TUG HILL
REGION AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON...AND A LONG
FETCH ALONG LAKE ONTARIO ENTERS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE MINOR...BUT 2 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS HAS CAUSED THE LAKE EFFECT TO TAKE ON A MULTI-BAND
PATTERN OFF OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. FORECASTING THESE NARROW
SHIFTING BANDS IS VERY DIFFICULT SO HAVE GENERALLY KEEP VFR IN THE
TAFS WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR IN PASSING LAKE BANDS.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
SHIFT LAKE BANDS NORTH AND BRING RAPID WEAKENING AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER NEW YORK LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211503
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CONTINUE OFF BOTH EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADDED MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM LAKE HURON.

OFF LAKE ERIE...BROAD MULTI BANDED SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SKI
COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE BROAD MULTI BANDED STRUCTURES TO
THE SNOWBANDS WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW RATES BUT WITH
SOME HELP FROM LAKE HURON AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALLS
OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT NOONTIME. AFTER
WHICH SHIFTING WINDS WILL LOSE THE LAKE HURON CONNECTION...AND THE
WEAKENING SNOW BAND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE METRO
BUFFALO AREA THIS EVENING. FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
ALL THAT IS LEFT BY TIME IT REACHES METRO BUFFALO. LATER THIS
EVENING THE SNOWBAND SHOULD FINALLY END WITH JUST SOME LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS REMAINING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INLAND ACROSS NE MONROE AND ALONG THE SHORELINE TO OSWEGO AND INLAND
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS WEAK
AT THIS TIME...BUT AS WINDS BACK TO A WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOWFALL TOWARDS THE TUG HILL
REGION AS ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON...AND A LONG
FETCH ALONG LAKE ONTARIO ENTERS THE BAND OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE MINOR...BUT 2 TO PERHAPS 4 INCHES OF
FRESH SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS HAS CAUSED THE LAKE EFFECT TO TAKE ON A MULTI-BAND
PATTERN OFF OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. FORECASTING THESE NARROW
SHIFTING BANDS IS VERY DIFFICULT SO HAVE GENERALLY KEEP VFR IN THE
TAFS WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR IN PASSING LAKE BANDS.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
SHIFT LAKE BANDS NORTH AND BRING RAPID WEAKENING AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER NEW YORK LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...THOMAS
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 211238
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PATTERN AT 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST STATES EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH HAS VEERED WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FLOW HAS ACTED TO TRANSITION SINGLE BAND LAKE EFFECT TO A MULTI-
BANDED PATTERN. 850MB TEMPS OF -15C ARE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE WELL
BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH
TODAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LATEST KBUF AND CANADIAN MOSAIC RADAR SCANS ARE
SHOWING MULTIPLE BANDS OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON
AND GEORGIAN BAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE COVERAGE
OF CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NARROW AND SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE BANDS SHOULD NOT BRING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION IN THAT REGION.
2 TO 4 ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE WITH ONLY ABOUT AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATER TODAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK WHICH MAY SHIFT THESE MULTIPLE BANDS TO A WEST-EAST PATTERN
BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SQUASHED THE
LAKE BANDS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ALSO TRANSITIONING LAKE EFFECT
HERE TO MULTI-BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER
TO FAIR HAVEN. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD HOLD HERE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
3-6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AREAS. THE OSWEGO
COUNTY WARNING WILL CONTINUE AS THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SHIFT BACK
NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS LATER TODAY. THIS MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE BANDS REMAIN ORGANIZED FOR.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 10-15 KFT WILL LOWER BELOW 5KFT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT
DISSIPATING NEAR WATERTOWN.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS HAS CAUSED THE LAKE EFFECT TO TAKE ON A MULTI-BAND
PATTERN OFF OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. FORECASTING THESE NARROW
SHIFTING BANDS IS VERY DIFFICULT SO HAVE GENERALLY KEEP VFR IN THE
TAFS WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR IN PASSING LAKE BANDS.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
SHIFT LAKE BANDS NORTH AND BRING RAPID WEAKENING AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER NEW YORK LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 211238
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
738 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PATTERN AT 12Z THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST STATES EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH HAS VEERED WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FLOW HAS ACTED TO TRANSITION SINGLE BAND LAKE EFFECT TO A MULTI-
BANDED PATTERN. 850MB TEMPS OF -15C ARE CONTINUING TO PROVIDE WELL
BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT THROUGH
TODAY.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LATEST KBUF AND CANADIAN MOSAIC RADAR SCANS ARE
SHOWING MULTIPLE BANDS OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO LAKE HURON
AND GEORGIAN BAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE MORE COVERAGE
OF CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE NARROW AND SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE BANDS SHOULD NOT BRING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE ACCUMULATION IN THAT REGION.
2 TO 4 ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE WITH ONLY ABOUT AN INCH OR
TWO ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. LATER TODAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BACK WHICH MAY SHIFT THESE MULTIPLE BANDS TO A WEST-EAST PATTERN
BEFORE A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FROM THE SURFACE HIGH SQUASHED THE
LAKE BANDS GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...NORTHWEST FLOW IS ALSO TRANSITIONING LAKE EFFECT
HERE TO MULTI-BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SHORE FROM ROCHESTER
TO FAIR HAVEN. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD HOLD HERE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
3-6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AREAS. THE OSWEGO
COUNTY WARNING WILL CONTINUE AS THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SHIFT BACK
NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS LATER TODAY. THIS MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE BANDS REMAIN ORGANIZED FOR.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 10-15 KFT WILL LOWER BELOW 5KFT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT
DISSIPATING NEAR WATERTOWN.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TODAY THEN FALLING
BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH A STEADY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS HAS CAUSED THE LAKE EFFECT TO TAKE ON A MULTI-BAND
PATTERN OFF OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. FORECASTING THESE NARROW
SHIFTING BANDS IS VERY DIFFICULT SO HAVE GENERALLY KEEP VFR IN THE
TAFS WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR IN PASSING LAKE BANDS.

WINDS WILL BACK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
SHIFT LAKE BANDS NORTH AND BRING RAPID WEAKENING AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDING OVER NEW YORK LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS. SOME CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN VFR AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
449 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXPANDED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR UNDER A VEERING NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -15C. THIS IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE WELL
BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
WHICH HAS SUPPORTED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSING OUR REGION IS ACTING TO DISRUPT THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW BANDS WITH SOME SHEER. THE BETTER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
HELPING THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN THE LAKE
ERIE BAND WHICH HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
KICKING OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THROUGH TODAY EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO REMAIN
VERY WEAK IF NOT FULLY DISSIPATED BY MIDDAY. LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE IF THE IDEA CONTINUES ON TRACK. CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION IS
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF BUT AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THE BAND
MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE WITHIN THE EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH MAY LIFT
ANY REMNANT LAKE BAND TO THE NORTH WITH NOT MUCH NEW ACCUMULATION.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE WILL PRESS FURTHER SOUTH AND MAY BECOME MULTIBAND IN NATURE
FROM ROCHESTER TO FAIR HAVEN. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD HOLD HERE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH 3-6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
AREAS. THE WARNING FOR LEWIS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THE
OSWEGO COUNTY WARNING CONTINUING AS THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SHIFT BACK
NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS LATER TODAY. THIS MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE BAND REMAINS ORGANIZED FOR.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 10-15 KFT WILL LOWER BELOW 5KFT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING
THE REGION IS KICKING OFF SOME BRIEF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE HAVE RAPIDLY
BROKEN UP WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNLESS THE BAND TRIES TO
RE-ORGANIZE LATER THIS MORNING WHICH IS UNLIKELY AS SURFACE RIDING
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LAKE SHORE. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME MULTI BAND
IN NATURE THIS MORNING FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO. THIS WILL KEEP VFR
AT KART...BUT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR AT KROC WITH LAKE EFFECT
DROPPING TOWARD THE TERMINAL.

BOTH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210949
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
449 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL WEAKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE PATTERN THIS MORNING SHOWS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST AND EXPANDED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. COLD AIR UNDER A VEERING NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -15C. THIS IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE WELL
BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
WHICH HAS SUPPORTED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS BUT THE SURFACE
TROUGH CROSSING OUR REGION IS ACTING TO DISRUPT THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW BANDS WITH SOME SHEER. THE BETTER FETCH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO IS
HELPING THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN THE LAKE
ERIE BAND WHICH HAS NEARLY DISSIPATED. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
KICKING OF SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THROUGH TODAY EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO REMAIN
VERY WEAK IF NOT FULLY DISSIPATED BY MIDDAY. LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED WITH THE NEXT
UPDATE IF THE IDEA CONTINUES ON TRACK. CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION IS
NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF BUT AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THE BAND
MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE WITHIN THE EXTREME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH MAY LIFT
ANY REMNANT LAKE BAND TO THE NORTH WITH NOT MUCH NEW ACCUMULATION.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...THE BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE WILL PRESS FURTHER SOUTH AND MAY BECOME MULTIBAND IN NATURE
FROM ROCHESTER TO FAIR HAVEN. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD HOLD HERE THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH 3-6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY
AREAS. THE WARNING FOR LEWIS COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH THE
OSWEGO COUNTY WARNING CONTINUING AS THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SHIFT BACK
NORTH WITH BACKING WINDS LATER TODAY. THIS MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL
FEW INCHES DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE BAND REMAINS ORGANIZED FOR.
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS 10-15 KFT WILL LOWER BELOW 5KFT
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BRING AN END TO LAKE EFFECT OVERNIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND
MAINLY CLEAR TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AS MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THE WATER STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY
TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR FLOODING WILL BE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF
THE SNOWPACK TO MELT.

THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH URBAN AND AREAL AS WELL AS
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND RIVERS. IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY AT THIS POINT HOW SIGNIFICANT THE FLOODING WILL BE WITH THE
EXACT AMOUNT OF WATER STORED IN THE SNOWPACK STILL AN UNKNOWN. ONCE
THIS IS ANSWERED...A BETTER IDEA OF THE SEVERITY OF THE FLOODING
WILL BE BETTER KNOWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BE ADVECTIING THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION ON AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES GO ABOVE FREEZING. INITIALLY THIS COULD
BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS STILL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG INVERSION LIKELY IN PLACE SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EJECTS OUT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A SHOT OF PV ADVECTION
SATURDAY WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST.
LATEST PROFILES WOULD SUGGEST THIS FALLS AS MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
HOWEVER...THERE COULD STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF BUFFALO AND
ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHARP
WARMING ALOFT WILL LIMIT MAINTENANCE FOR SUB-ZERO WET BULBING SO
THINK ANY ICING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 ALONG THE
LAKE ERIE SHORE AND NIAGARA FRONTIER. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
MELTING OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE EAST OF THE LAKE ERIE...
FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL AS THE SNOWPACK WILL
ABSORB THIS MELT.

WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL THEN BE ONGOING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A 100 KNOT JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM. THIS WILL HELP
ORIENT A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ONGOING LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY KEEPING
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
ALSO GO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN...ALBEIT
LIGHT WILL LEAD TO FURTHER RIPENING OF THE DEEP SNOW PACK.

THIS LIFT WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AS RIDGING DEVELOPS
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A SHORT TIME...ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEARING 50
DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST OF BOTH
GREAT LAKES TO CONTINUE TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN BRUNT OF DYNAMICS...
MOISTURE AND RAIN WILL QUICKLY SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION. ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COMMENCES AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
PER LATEST GEFS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST +2 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATION AS VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 1.25 INCHES. PROFILES
INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN WHICH DOES GIVE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER..IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
WILL BE A RATHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...AS A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE
REGION IN WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH RANGE.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING
THE REGION IS KICKING OFF SOME BRIEF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
TEMPO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE HAVE RAPIDLY
BROKEN UP WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD UNLESS THE BAND TRIES TO
RE-ORGANIZE LATER THIS MORNING WHICH IS UNLIKELY AS SURFACE RIDING
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LAKE SHORE. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME MULTI BAND
IN NATURE THIS MORNING FROM ROCHESTER TO OSWEGO. THIS WILL KEEP VFR
AT KART...BUT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR AT KROC WITH LAKE EFFECT
DROPPING TOWARD THE TERMINAL.

BOTH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN
THE INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL FIRST RELAX
THROUGH TODAY BUT WAVES LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING
WHERE ADVISORIES THEN EXPIRE.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY TO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS DEEPENING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GALES ON
LAKE ERIE AND ADVISORIES POSSIBLE ON LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210641
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOMINANT PLUME OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON
HAS SINCE SETTLED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MULTIPLE BAND IN NATURE. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS CHANGE WILL BE NOTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...THE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
UNLIKE THE PLUME OF SNOW FROM THE DAYTIME...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO HELP IT ALONG AS
WELL. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE JAMESTOWN AREA DESCRIBE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR...SO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO POUND THE
REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES WILL REACH TWO FEET OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. HAVE THUS DISCONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS...AS WE AS THE LES BASED FLAGS OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER
IS LEFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A HEALTHY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE
HEART OF THIS BAND THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK
ERIE....THE SINGLE BAND WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE REDEVELOPING INTO A MULTI-BAND EVENT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO BORDERING COUNTIES.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS NOW FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WHEN THE BAND INTERSECTS THE TERMINALS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LAKE SHORE. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP VFR AT KART...BUT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

BOTH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ008-019-
     020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210641
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
141 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR NEW YORK. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT
TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH WERE BURIED
BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER AGAIN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOMINANT PLUME OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON
HAS SINCE SETTLED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MULTIPLE BAND IN NATURE. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS CHANGE WILL BE NOTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...THE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
UNLIKE THE PLUME OF SNOW FROM THE DAYTIME...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO HELP IT ALONG AS
WELL. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE JAMESTOWN AREA DESCRIBE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR...SO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO POUND THE
REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES WILL REACH TWO FEET OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. HAVE THUS DISCONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS...AS WE AS THE LES BASED FLAGS OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER
IS LEFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A HEALTHY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE
HEART OF THIS BAND THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK
ERIE....THE SINGLE BAND WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE REDEVELOPING INTO A MULTI-BAND EVENT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO BORDERING COUNTIES.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS NOW FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AS MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WHEN THE BAND INTERSECTS THE TERMINALS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
LAKE SHORE. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP VFR AT KART...BUT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

BOTH AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN
FRIDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGING LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ008-019-
     020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...RSH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH/SMITH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1048 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOMINANT PLUME OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON
HAS SINCE SETTLED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MULTIPLE BAND IN NATURE. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS CHANGE WILL BE NOTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...THE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
UNLIKE THE PLUME OF SNOW FROM THE DAYTIME...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO HELP IT ALONG AS
WELL. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE JAMESTOWN AREA DESCRIBE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR...SO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO POUND THE
REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES WILL REACH TWO FEET OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. HAVE THUS DISCONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS...AS WE AS THE LES BASED FLAGS OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER
IS LEFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A HEALTHY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE
HEART OF THIS BAND THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK
ERIE....THE SINGLE BAND WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE REDEVELOPING INTO A MULTI-BAND EVENT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO BORDERING COUNTIES.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS SOUTH OF KBUF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BAND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AND BECOME MORE MULTI BAND
IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT AT KART...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ008-019-
     020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1048 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOMINANT PLUME OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON
HAS SINCE SETTLED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MULTIPLE BAND IN NATURE. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS CHANGE WILL BE NOTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...THE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
UNLIKE THE PLUME OF SNOW FROM THE DAYTIME...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO HELP IT ALONG AS
WELL. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE JAMESTOWN AREA DESCRIBE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR...SO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO POUND THE
REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES WILL REACH TWO FEET OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. HAVE THUS DISCONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS...AS WE AS THE LES BASED FLAGS OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER
IS LEFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A HEALTHY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE
HEART OF THIS BAND THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK
ERIE....THE SINGLE BAND WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE REDEVELOPING INTO A MULTI-BAND EVENT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO BORDERING COUNTIES.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS SOUTH OF KBUF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BAND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AND BECOME MORE MULTI BAND
IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT AT KART...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ008-019-
     020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210348
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1048 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE DOMINANT PLUME OF LAKE SNOW FROM THE AFTERNOON
HAS SINCE SETTLED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND
IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING MULTIPLE BAND IN NATURE. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN...AND THIS CHANGE WILL BE NOTED ACROSS LAKE ERIE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE THE OVERNIGHT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MULTI-BAND IN NATURE...THE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE AN UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AND
UNLIKE THE PLUME OF SNOW FROM THE DAYTIME...THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE TO HELP IT ALONG AS
WELL. SNOW SPOTTER REPORTS FROM THE JAMESTOWN AREA DESCRIBE NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3 INCHES AN
HOUR...SO THE LAKE EFFECT WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO POUND THE
REGION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER PARTS OF CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES WILL REACH TWO FEET OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE SNOW HAS
TAPERED OFF TO LIGHTER SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF WYOMING AND
SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. HAVE THUS DISCONTINUED THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS FOR THOSE AREAS...AS WE AS THE LES BASED FLAGS OVER THE
FINGER LAKES REGION.

ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE
DECREASES QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER
IS LEFT WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A HEALTHY BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OSWEGO AND SOUTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES AN HOUR WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE
HEART OF THIS BAND THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN LIKE THE ACTIVITY OFF LK
ERIE....THE SINGLE BAND WILL BECOME DISORGANIZED FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
BEFORE REDEVELOPING INTO A MULTI-BAND EVENT FROM OSWEGO COUNTY
WESTWARD ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO BORDERING COUNTIES.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS SOUTH OF KBUF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BAND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AND BECOME MORE MULTI BAND
IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT AT KART...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ004-005.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ008-019-
     020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210158
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
858 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 FEET FROM THE SECOND
EVENT CENTERED ONE ROW OF TOWNS SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FELL FROM THE FIRST EVENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM SILVER
CREEK TO ANGOLA...BOSTON...EAST AURORA...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET COMMON
ACROSS THE HARDEST HIT TOWNS FROM THE FIRST EVENT...AND ALSO FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WESTERN
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY. NOTE THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS
ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET FROM JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF WATERTOWN DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY GETTING OVER 2 FEET ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NOTE
THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IN PLACE FROM DUNKIRK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND EAST ALONG THE GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTY LINE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE START OF A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS FOLLOWS WELL WITH THE NAM
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH BAND MOTION THROUGH
THIS EVENT.

REGIONAL NWS DOPPLER RADARS AND LOCAL MEDIA RADARS INDICATE THAT THE
LAKE ERIE BAND IS EASILY EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...WITH STEADY MODERATE SNOW FOUND OVER LIVINGSTON AND
ONTARIO COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
LIVINGSTON COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER EAST FOR ONTARIO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND END IN
THESE AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM
THEN BEGIN A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT SOUTHWARD. IT WILL LIKELY COME
BODILY ONSHORE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE AND DELIVER A
FEW HOURS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER STEADILY TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PUSH THE INITIAL SINGLE BAND INLAND AND
WEAKEN IT...TO BE REPLACED BY MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE
REGIME. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER SNOW ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE.

ON FRIDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER
SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE DECREASES
QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER IS LEFT
WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN CENTERED
OVER THE TUG HILL SINCE NIGHTFALL...AND IS NOW SLOWLY STARTING TO
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE THUS REMOVED JEFFERSON COUNTY FROM THE
WARNING. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...AND PUSH AN EAST/WEST BAND BODILY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
BURST OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE
ROCHESTER AREA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE BAND
SHOULD STILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST INTO WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. ONCE THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD BREAK APART...AND BE
REPLACED BY A WIDER SPRAY OF MULTIPLE BANDS IN MANY AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND MAY BRIEFLY INTENSITY AGAIN
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL FRIDAY EVENING AS FLOW BACKS
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS SOUTH OF KBUF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BAND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AND BECOME MORE MULTI BAND
IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT AT KART...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ008-019-
     020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-013-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210158
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
858 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 FEET FROM THE SECOND
EVENT CENTERED ONE ROW OF TOWNS SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FELL FROM THE FIRST EVENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM SILVER
CREEK TO ANGOLA...BOSTON...EAST AURORA...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET COMMON
ACROSS THE HARDEST HIT TOWNS FROM THE FIRST EVENT...AND ALSO FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WESTERN
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY. NOTE THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS
ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET FROM JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF WATERTOWN DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY GETTING OVER 2 FEET ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NOTE
THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IN PLACE FROM DUNKIRK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND EAST ALONG THE GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTY LINE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE START OF A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS FOLLOWS WELL WITH THE NAM
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH BAND MOTION THROUGH
THIS EVENT.

REGIONAL NWS DOPPLER RADARS AND LOCAL MEDIA RADARS INDICATE THAT THE
LAKE ERIE BAND IS EASILY EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...WITH STEADY MODERATE SNOW FOUND OVER LIVINGSTON AND
ONTARIO COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
LIVINGSTON COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER EAST FOR ONTARIO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND END IN
THESE AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM
THEN BEGIN A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT SOUTHWARD. IT WILL LIKELY COME
BODILY ONSHORE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE AND DELIVER A
FEW HOURS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER STEADILY TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PUSH THE INITIAL SINGLE BAND INLAND AND
WEAKEN IT...TO BE REPLACED BY MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE
REGIME. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER SNOW ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE.

ON FRIDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER
SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE DECREASES
QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER IS LEFT
WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS BEEN CENTERED
OVER THE TUG HILL SINCE NIGHTFALL...AND IS NOW SLOWLY STARTING TO
SETTLE TO THE SOUTH. HAVE THUS REMOVED JEFFERSON COUNTY FROM THE
WARNING. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY DURING
THE REMAINING OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES AN HOUR.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...AND PUSH AN EAST/WEST BAND BODILY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
BURST OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE
ROCHESTER AREA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE BAND
SHOULD STILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST INTO WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. ONCE THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD BREAK APART...AND BE
REPLACED BY A WIDER SPRAY OF MULTIPLE BANDS IN MANY AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND MAY BRIEFLY INTENSITY AGAIN
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL FRIDAY EVENING AS FLOW BACKS
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS SOUTH OF KBUF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BAND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AND BECOME MORE MULTI BAND
IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT AT KART...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ008-019-
     020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-013-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 210004
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 FEET FROM THE SECOND
EVENT CENTERED ONE ROW OF TOWNS SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FELL FROM THE FIRST EVENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM SILVER
CREEK TO ANGOLA...BOSTON...EAST AURORA...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET COMMON
ACROSS THE HARDEST HIT TOWNS FROM THE FIRST EVENT...AND ALSO FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WESTERN
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY. NOTE THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS
ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET FROM JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF WATERTOWN DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY GETTING OVER 2 FEET ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NOTE
THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IN PLACE FROM DUNKIRK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND EAST ALONG THE GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTY LINE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE START OF A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS FOLLOWS WELL WITH THE NAM
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH BAND MOTION THROUGH
THIS EVENT.

REGIONAL NWS DOPPLER RADARS AND LOCAL MEDIA RADARS INDICATE THAT THE
LAKE ERIE BAND IS EASILY EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...WITH STEADY MODERATE SNOW FOUND OVER LIVINGSTON AND
ONTARIO COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
LIVINGSTON COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER EAST FOR ONTARIO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND END IN
THESE AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM
THEN BEGIN A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT SOUTHWARD. IT WILL LIKELY COME
BODILY ONSHORE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE AND DELIVER A
FEW HOURS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER STEADILY TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PUSH THE INITIAL SINGLE BAND INLAND AND
WEAKEN IT...TO BE REPLACED BY MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE
REGIME. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER SNOW ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE.

ON FRIDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER
SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE DECREASES
QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER IS LEFT
WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE BAND HAS VARIED IN INTENSITY TODAY WITH TIMES OF 2-3 INCHES PER
HOUR AND OTHER TIMES WEAKER. THE BAND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTH TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD REACH 3 TO 5
INCHES PER HOUR AS FETCH INCREASES DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...AND PUSH AN EAST/WEST BAND BODILY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
BURST OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE
ROCHESTER AREA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE BAND
SHOULD STILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST INTO WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. ONCE THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD BREAK APART...AND BE
REPLACED BY A WIDER SPRAY OF MULTIPLE BANDS IN MANY AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND MAY BRIEFLY INTENSITY AGAIN
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL FRIDAY EVENING AS FLOW BACKS
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS SOUTH OF KBUF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BAND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AND BECOME MORE MULTI BAND
IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT AT KART...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008-
     019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-013-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH








000
FXUS61 KBUF 210004
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
704 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 FEET FROM THE SECOND
EVENT CENTERED ONE ROW OF TOWNS SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FELL FROM THE FIRST EVENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM SILVER
CREEK TO ANGOLA...BOSTON...EAST AURORA...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET COMMON
ACROSS THE HARDEST HIT TOWNS FROM THE FIRST EVENT...AND ALSO FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WESTERN
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY. NOTE THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS
ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET FROM JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF WATERTOWN DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY GETTING OVER 2 FEET ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NOTE
THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IN PLACE FROM DUNKIRK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND EAST ALONG THE GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTY LINE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE START OF A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS FOLLOWS WELL WITH THE NAM
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH BAND MOTION THROUGH
THIS EVENT.

REGIONAL NWS DOPPLER RADARS AND LOCAL MEDIA RADARS INDICATE THAT THE
LAKE ERIE BAND IS EASILY EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...WITH STEADY MODERATE SNOW FOUND OVER LIVINGSTON AND
ONTARIO COUNTIES. WILL HOIST A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
LIVINGSTON COUNTY AND AN ADVISORY FURTHER EAST FOR ONTARIO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND END IN
THESE AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 8 PM
THEN BEGIN A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT SOUTHWARD. IT WILL LIKELY COME
BODILY ONSHORE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE AND DELIVER A
FEW HOURS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER STEADILY TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PUSH THE INITIAL SINGLE BAND INLAND AND
WEAKEN IT...TO BE REPLACED BY MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE
REGIME. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER SNOW ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE.

ON FRIDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER
SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE DECREASES
QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER IS LEFT
WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE BAND HAS VARIED IN INTENSITY TODAY WITH TIMES OF 2-3 INCHES PER
HOUR AND OTHER TIMES WEAKER. THE BAND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTH TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD REACH 3 TO 5
INCHES PER HOUR AS FETCH INCREASES DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...AND PUSH AN EAST/WEST BAND BODILY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
BURST OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE
ROCHESTER AREA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE BAND
SHOULD STILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST INTO WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. ONCE THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD BREAK APART...AND BE
REPLACED BY A WIDER SPRAY OF MULTIPLE BANDS IN MANY AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND MAY BRIEFLY INTENSITY AGAIN
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL FRIDAY EVENING AS FLOW BACKS
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS SOUTH OF KBUF AND
WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE BAND WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SOUTH AND BECOME MORE MULTI BAND
IN NATURE LATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT KJHW AND KELZ WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY
ABOUT 02Z OR SO.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO... A PLUME OF SNOW EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU. THIS BAND WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
MULTI BAND IN NATURE BY MORNING OVER THE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT AT KART...BUT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KROC AFTER 08Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WHILE DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ON LAKE ONTARIO. HAVE
THUS DROPPED THE GALE WARNING AND HAVE REPLACED IT WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS. MEANWHILE SCA`S
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS ALONG WITH
THE IAG AND ST LAWRENCE RIVERS.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE
INFLUENCING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PASS OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008-
     019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR NYZ010>012-085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ012-013-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NYZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
         LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/RSH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/RSH









000
FXUS61 KBUF 202105
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 FEET FROM THE SECOND
EVENT CENTERED ONE ROW OF TOWNS SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FELL FROM THE FIRST EVENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM SILVER
CREEK TO ANGOLA...BOSTON...EAST AURORA...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET COMMON
ACROSS THE HARDEST HIT TOWNS FROM THE FIRST EVENT...AND ALSO FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WESTERN
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY. NOTE THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS
ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET FROM JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF WATERTOWN DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY GETTING OVER 2 FEET ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NOTE
THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IN PLACE FROM DUNKIRK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND EAST ALONG THE GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTY LINE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE START OF A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS FOLLOWS WELL WITH THE NAM
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH BAND MOTION THROUGH
THIS EVENT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
AROUND 6PM THEN BEGIN A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT SOUTHWARD. IT WILL LIKELY
COME BODILY ONSHORE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE AND
DELIVER A FEW HOURS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER STEADILY TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PUSH THE INITIAL SINGLE BAND INLAND AND
WEAKEN IT...TO BE REPLACED BY MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE
REGIME. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER SNOW ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE.

ON FRIDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER
SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE DECREASES
QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER IS LEFT
WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE BAND HAS VARIED IN INTENSITY TODAY WITH TIMES OF 2-3 INCHES PER
HOUR AND OTHER TIMES WEAKER. THE BAND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTH TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD REACH 3 TO 5
INCHES PER HOUR AS FETCH INCREASES DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...AND PUSH AN EAST/WEST BAND BODILY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
BURST OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE
ROCHESTER AREA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE BAND
SHOULD STILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST INTO WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. ONCE THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD BREAK APART...AND BE
REPLACED BY A WIDER SPRAY OF MULTIPLE BANDS IN MANY AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND MAY BRIEFLY INTENSITY AGAIN
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL FRIDAY EVENING AS FLOW BACKS
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS JUST SOUTH OF KBUF
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT...BY A
MILE OR TWO...BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY CLOSE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WITHIN THE BAND VISIBILITY WILL BE NIL IN VERY HEAVY SNOW.
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AWAY FROM KBUF THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND KJHW OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR THERE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT LAKE SNOW TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN A WEAKENED FORM COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT STILL PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL IFR.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A PLUME OF SNOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KART. EXPECT THE
BAND TO LIFT NORTH INTO KART FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
VSBY BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. TONIGHT THE BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THEN TO OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH NIL VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY SNOW ON THE WAY. ON FRIDAY THE
BAND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND BREAK APART INTO MORE
OF A WEAKER MULTIPLE BAND REGIME...WITH AREAS OF IFR FROM JUST EAST
OF KROC TO NEAR KFZY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS INTO TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFTS ON THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE INFLUENCING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008-
     019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK






000
FXUS61 KBUF 202105
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
405 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL END ALTOGETHER FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH WARMER AIR WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AT TIMES...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FLOOD RISK TO AREAS WHICH
WERE BURIED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TURN COLDER
AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS LIGHT AT THE END OF THE LAKE EFFECT TUNNEL ONCE WE GET
THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.

OFF LAKE ERIE EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 FEET FROM THE SECOND
EVENT CENTERED ONE ROW OF TOWNS SOUTH OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FELL FROM THE FIRST EVENT. THIS WOULD INCLUDE LOCATIONS FROM SILVER
CREEK TO ANGOLA...BOSTON...EAST AURORA...WITH 1 TO 2 FEET COMMON
ACROSS THE HARDEST HIT TOWNS FROM THE FIRST EVENT...AND ALSO FARTHER
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...WESTERN
CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GENESEE AND
NORTHERN/WESTERN WYOMING COUNTY. NOTE THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS
ALREADY FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO EXPECT STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET FROM JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF WATERTOWN DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY...WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY GETTING OVER 2 FEET ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. NOTE
THIS COUNTS SNOW WHICH HAS FALLEN SINCE LAST EVENING.

OFF LAKE ERIE...
AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS IN PLACE FROM DUNKIRK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY...THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO
SOUTHTOWNS...AND EAST ALONG THE GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTY LINE.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR CONTINUE WITHIN THIS BAND
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE START OF A SOUTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE
WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE...AND THIS FOLLOWS WELL WITH THE NAM
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL WITH BAND MOTION THROUGH
THIS EVENT.

WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE BAND TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
AROUND 6PM THEN BEGIN A FAIRLY RAPID SHIFT SOUTHWARD. IT WILL LIKELY
COME BODILY ONSHORE ALONG THE CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY SHORELINE AND
DELIVER A FEW HOURS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORE AND
CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEER STEADILY TO
THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL PUSH THE INITIAL SINGLE BAND INLAND AND
WEAKEN IT...TO BE REPLACED BY MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE
REGIME. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER SNOW ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE SHORE.

ON FRIDAY THE NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE REGIME WILL CONTINUE. THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE MORNING...BY AFTERNOON INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER
SUBSTANTIALLY AND BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE DECREASES
QUICKLY...WHICH SHOULD BRING A RAPID WEAKENING. WHATEVER IS LEFT
WILL TRY TO SHIFT BACK NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT BESIDES A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
THE BAND HAS VARIED IN INTENSITY TODAY WITH TIMES OF 2-3 INCHES PER
HOUR AND OTHER TIMES WEAKER. THE BAND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED
AGAIN AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSITY THIS EVENING AS IT DRIFTS
SOUTH TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. BY THIS TIME IT SHOULD REACH 3 TO 5
INCHES PER HOUR AS FETCH INCREASES DOWN THE LENGTH OF LAKE ONTARIO
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS
OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A RAPID SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR...AND PUSH AN EAST/WEST BAND BODILY
ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING A
BURST OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE
ROCHESTER AREA WHERE A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE BAND
SHOULD STILL BE STRONGER FARTHER EAST INTO WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA
COUNTIES. ONCE THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD BREAK APART...AND BE
REPLACED BY A WIDER SPRAY OF MULTIPLE BANDS IN MANY AREAS SOUTHEAST
OF THE LAKE.

ALL OF THIS COMBINED SHOULD PRODUCE ADVISORY TYPE ACCUMULATIONS IN
WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ROCHESTER.

BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE LAKE EFFECT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE THAT THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND MAY BRIEFLY INTENSITY AGAIN
ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY AND THE TUG HILL FRIDAY EVENING AS FLOW BACKS
AND BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...INCREASING FETCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO START THIS TIME PERIOD OFF BOTH
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ALOFT A FRONT OF WARMER AIR WILL BE ADVANCING
NORTHWARD UP LAKE ERIE AND THIS WARMING WILL GREATLY REDUCED THE
CAPPING INVERSION OFF LAKE ERIE WITH INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDING ANY
LINGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR SKI COUNTRY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A STILL HEALTHY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE
ONGOING WITH A WNW FLOW. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS SE OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE WARMING FROM
THE SOUTH...AND INCREASE WIND SHEAR ENDS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE TUG HILL REGION.

SATURDAY WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF WARMING ACROSS WNY. A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA UP ABOVE
FREEZING. MEANWHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS WARM...MOIST AIR IS LIFTED UPWARD OVER
THE COOLER AIR WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS WNY LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SOME LINGER POCKETS
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND MAY PRODUCE SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HILLS SOUTH OF
BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...AND ALSO VALLEYS TO THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTED ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LLJ. WITH THE WARMING
PATTERN USUALLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE A HARD TIME MIXING DOWN DUE TO THE
POOR LAPSE RATES...AND JUST A BREEZY DAY WILL BE FOUND SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY AS THE OVERHEAD RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THOUGH LIKELY STILL CLOUDY A STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES UP TO 6C SUNDAY AND TO NEAR
10C BY EARLY MONDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS...ALONG WITH HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING OUR SURFACE HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 50S.
COUPLED WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WARMING TEMPERATURES...INCREASE SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND RISING DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEEP SNOWPACK EAST
OF BOTH GREAT LAKES TO COMPACT AND DIMINISH IN HEIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
TO OCCUR. ON THE FORCING OF A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...A LIGHT
RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF RAINFALL MEASURING ON
THE ORDER OF A QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.

THE MAJOR CONCERN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. LIQUID STORED IN THE RECENTLY FALLEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD
WITH LOWS REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. BY MONDAY SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F
WHICH WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT. THE HIGH LIQUID IN THE
SNOWPACK COMBINED THE FALLING RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING...BOTH
URBAN/AREAL AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LOCAL STREAM/CREEKS AND
RIVERS.

THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS COLD AIR WILL REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
ALLOW FOR SNOWPACK MELTING TO CONTINUE. WITH THE TROUGH NEARBY WILL
CARRY A LOW CHANCE POP FOR A PASSING SHOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD COOLING TEMPERATURES
WILL END THE THREAT OF FLOODING...BUT AGAIN RENEW THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW POTENTIAL.

ON TUESDAY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DOWN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST (PRIOR WARM AIRMASS) AND RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.

WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH
THIS TROUGH NOW NEARING OUR REGION WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS THROUGH THE
DAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL HAVE DROPPED TO
NEAR -10C...AND FALLING. ALOFT THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS CURRENT WEEK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...COLD AIR
NOT AS DEEP AND CAPPING INVERSION HEIGHTS NOT AS TALL. THAT SAID
PARAMETERS ARE STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTING TUESDAY PM ACROSS AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKES...THEN DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE COLD AIR NOT AS DEEP THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE RAIN MIXED
IN WITH THE BANDS OF SNOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH MAY DISRUPT THE BANDS SOME...BEFORE A WESTERLY WIND
CARRIES THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW INLAND TO AREAS EAST OF THE LAKES...AND
SOUTH OF BUFFALO/WATERTOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL FADE EARLY THURSDAY AS WE GET A
LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT GENERAL SNOW TO WNY BY LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS JUST SOUTH OF KBUF
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT...BY A
MILE OR TWO...BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY CLOSE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WITHIN THE BAND VISIBILITY WILL BE NIL IN VERY HEAVY SNOW.
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AWAY FROM KBUF THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND KJHW OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR THERE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT LAKE SNOW TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN A WEAKENED FORM COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT STILL PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL IFR.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A PLUME OF SNOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KART. EXPECT THE
BAND TO LIFT NORTH INTO KART FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
VSBY BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. TONIGHT THE BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THEN TO OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH NIL VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY SNOW ON THE WAY. ON FRIDAY THE
BAND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND BREAK APART INTO MORE
OF A WEAKER MULTIPLE BAND REGIME...WITH AREAS OF IFR FROM JUST EAST
OF KROC TO NEAR KFZY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS INTO TONIGHT...WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFTS ON THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE INFLUENCING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008-
     019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ021.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK
SHORT TERM...THOMAS
LONG TERM...THOMAS
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...HITCHCOCK







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED NORTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES TODAY...AS A FRESH COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHERE THEY
WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MORE TYPICAL LAKE SNOW BELTS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOTICEABLY MILDER AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...RENEWED LAKE EFFECT WILL DUMP MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW ON AREAS
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE AREA THAT
WAS JUST CRIPPLED WITH 3 TO 5 FEET OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR STORM TOTALS FROM THIS SECOND EVENT
REACHING 3 FEET OFF LAKE ERIE...ALTHOUGH BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS WE MOVED THE GREATEST TOTALS ABOUT ONE TOWNSHIP SOUTHWARD
FROM ANGOLA TO THE NORTHERN BOSTON HILLS...EAST AURORA...AND
NORTHERN WYOMING COUNTY. OFF LAKE ONTARIO WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR
STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 FEET
ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LAKE ERIE BAND CREEPING
NORTHWARD AS EXPECTED DUE TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO LIFT THE BAND BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS
FROM HAMBURG TO ORCHARD PARK...AND LANCASTER EAST TO BATAVIA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THE BAND MAY EVEN REACH
SOUTH BUFFALO AND WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT. FINALLY A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE BAND SOUTH
THIS EVENING.

THE FLOW WILL VEER 300 DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL
DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A FOOT OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A LAKE BAND HAS CONSOLIDATED AGAIN FROM WATERTOWN
TO FORT DRUM. EXPECT THIS BAND TO DRIFT NORTH A FEW MILES THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING BACK SOUTH TONIGHT TO THE TUG
HILL REGION...THEN REACHING OSWEGO COUNTY VERY LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND LAKE
ONTARIO TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE BAND TODAY OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES OFF ONTARIO. TONIGHT THE ROLES
REVERSE...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PICKING UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR AS
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND INCREASES FETCH AND BAND ORGANIZATION. THE
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN TO 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

A PATTERN VERY REMINISCENT OF LAST YEARS WINTER WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TODAY...AS RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOOR WIDE OPEN
FOR COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THEREIN LIES THE FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

A DEEP...CYCLONIC FLOW OF -14C H85 AIR WILL CIRCULATE ACROSS LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ESTABLISH IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WITH A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND A CAPPING INVERSION RISING FROM 10K FT TO AT LEAST
15K...THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER PROMINENT ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SITES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF LK ERIE WHERE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL FALL ON
AREAS THAT RECEIVED UP TO FIVE FEET OF SNOW JUST 30 HOURS AGO.

 OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...IT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME
FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
TEENS. MERCURY READINGS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE TEENS IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WHERE LAKE
CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE COMMON NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT STORM ROUND 2 WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT OFF BOTH
LAKES THEN EXPECTING A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AS VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A WARM NOSE TRIES TO PUSH ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO.

FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 15KFT FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED
RIDGING DRIVING DOWN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW
TO BE CONFINED TO CHAUTAUQUA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY UNDER A 290-300 DEGREE FLOW. THE LAKE SNOW
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
THE STEERING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK AS THE SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND A WEAK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
BACK NORTH OVER SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY WHILE DISSIPATING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RUN CLOSE TO 18KFT FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALSO DUE TO A
LOWERING INVERSION. FRIDAY MORNING THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LAKE SHORE THEN IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH TO
BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND OSWEGO AS WINDS VEER TO AROUND 310 DEGREES.
CURRENT THINKING STILL REMAINS THAT THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THIS
BAND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OVER ANY ONE LOCATION
SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET ON HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE BUT SEVERAL HOURS
LATER...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH. THIS BACKING FLOW WILL CARRY THE LAKE EFFECT BACK
NORTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE TUG HILL UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION.

ON SATURDAY THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR AND GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE MORNING SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS...CHANCES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN WILL SHIFT
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES STILL
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. EXACT P-TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT
WHICH TEMPERATURE COLUMNS WARM AND MOISTEN. NAM FORECAST WARM LAYER
TEMPS QUICKLY RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
SO ANY MIX IF IT OCCURS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL HOLD IN
PLACE LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY SO BETTER CHANCES FOR P-TYPE
TO START AS SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A BRIEF MIX BEFORE GOING OVER TO
ALL LIQUID. QPF IS LESS THAN A TENTH SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY DEWPOINTS
BACK ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT
UNDER A BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MID TO UPPER
30S PUSHING CLOSER TO 40 BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL RIPEN THE SNOWPACK WITH MELTING QUICKLY TAKING
PLACE AFTER DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR...
WITH THE WARMEST DAY COMING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AND PLENTY OF
WIND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A MAJOR MELTDOWN IN AREAS POUNDED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES COMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SOME RAIN AND MAJOR SNOWMELT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...BOTH
FOR SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...
AND THE CREEKS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL REGION. IN URBAN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH BUFFALO PONDING/FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE LARGE
VOLUME OF MELT WATER OVERLOADS DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.

LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE IMPORTANT THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIME PERIOD...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF DROP 850MB TEMPS TO -8C TO -10C
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS JUST SOUTH OF KBUF
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT...BY A
MILE OR TWO...BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY CLOSE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WITHIN THE BAND VISIBILITY WILL BE NIL IN VERY HEAVY SNOW.
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AWAY FROM KBUF THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND KJHW OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR THERE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT LAKE SNOW TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN A WEAKENED FORM COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT STILL PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL IFR.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A PLUME OF SNOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KART. EXPECT THE
BAND TO LIFT NORTH INTO KART FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
VSBY BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. TONIGHT THE BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THEN TO OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH NIL VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY SNOW ON THE WAY. ON FRIDAY THE
BAND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND BREAK APART INTO MORE
OF A WEAKER MULTIPLE BAND REGIME...WITH AREAS OF IFR FROM JUST EAST
OF KROC TO NEAR KFZY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFTS ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE INFLUENCING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008-
     019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH







000
FXUS61 KBUF 201805
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
105 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOCUSED NORTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES TODAY...AS A FRESH COLD AIRMASS WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION. THE LAKE SNOWS WILL SETTLE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHERE THEY
WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE MORE TYPICAL LAKE SNOW BELTS OF THE
WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOTICEABLY MILDER AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
UPCOMING AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...RENEWED LAKE EFFECT WILL DUMP MULTIPLE FEET OF SNOW ON AREAS
NORTHEAST OF BOTH LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE AREA THAT
WAS JUST CRIPPLED WITH 3 TO 5 FEET OF SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE...

WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR STORM TOTALS FROM THIS SECOND EVENT
REACHING 3 FEET OFF LAKE ERIE...ALTHOUGH BASED ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS WE MOVED THE GREATEST TOTALS ABOUT ONE TOWNSHIP SOUTHWARD
FROM ANGOLA TO THE NORTHERN BOSTON HILLS...EAST AURORA...AND
NORTHERN WYOMING COUNTY. OFF LAKE ONTARIO WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR
STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 FEET
ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE LAKE ERIE BAND CREEPING
NORTHWARD AS EXPECTED DUE TO A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT MOVING ACROSS LAKE
ERIE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO LIFT THE BAND BACK TO THE IMMEDIATE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS
FROM HAMBURG TO ORCHARD PARK...AND LANCASTER EAST TO BATAVIA FOR
SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. THE BAND MAY EVEN REACH
SOUTH BUFFALO AND WILL GET EXTREMELY CLOSE TO THE AIRPORT. FINALLY A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THE BAND SOUTH
THIS EVENING.

THE FLOW WILL VEER 300 DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THIS WILL
DIRECT THE LAKE SNOWS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
WHERE A FOOT OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A LAKE BAND HAS CONSOLIDATED AGAIN FROM WATERTOWN
TO FORT DRUM. EXPECT THIS BAND TO DRIFT NORTH A FEW MILES THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING BACK SOUTH TONIGHT TO THE TUG
HILL REGION...THEN REACHING OSWEGO COUNTY VERY LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY ON LAKE ERIE TODAY AND LAKE
ONTARIO TONIGHT. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE
HEAVIEST PORTION OF THE BAND TODAY OFF LAKE ERIE...WITH SOMEWHAT
LIGHTER 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RATES OFF ONTARIO. TONIGHT THE ROLES
REVERSE...WITH LAKE ONTARIO PICKING UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES PER HOUR AS
FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND INCREASES FETCH AND BAND ORGANIZATION. THE
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOULD WEAKEN TO 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER.

A PATTERN VERY REMINISCENT OF LAST YEARS WINTER WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA TODAY...AS RIDGING WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENT WHILE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE DOOR WIDE OPEN
FOR COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THEREIN LIES THE FORECAST PROBLEM
FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK.

A DEEP...CYCLONIC FLOW OF -14C H85 AIR WILL CIRCULATE ACROSS LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL ESTABLISH IMPRESSIVE
INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND WITH A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND A CAPPING INVERSION RISING FROM 10K FT TO AT LEAST
15K...THE INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER PROMINENT ROUND
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
SITES EAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF LK ERIE WHERE AT LEAST SOME OF THIS SNOW WILL FALL ON
AREAS THAT RECEIVED UP TO FIVE FEET OF SNOW JUST 30 HOURS AGO.

 OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...IT WILL BE COLD WITH SOME
FLURRIES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
TEENS. MERCURY READINGS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE INTO THE TEENS IN MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH READINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S WHERE LAKE
CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE COMMON NEAR LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LAKE EFFECT STORM ROUND 2 WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT OFF BOTH
LAKES THEN EXPECTING A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AS VERTICAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW A WARM NOSE TRIES TO PUSH ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DO.

FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE ERIE...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RUN AROUND 15KFT FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH ASSOCIATED
RIDGING DRIVING DOWN A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW
TO BE CONFINED TO CHAUTAUQUA AND THE WESTERN HALF OF CATTARAUGUS
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY UNDER A 290-300 DEGREE FLOW. THE LAKE SNOW
SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER.
THE STEERING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK AS THE SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN NY AND A WEAK BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT
BACK NORTH OVER SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY WHILE DISSIPATING.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS WILL RUN CLOSE TO 18KFT FRIDAY
BEFORE DROPPING STEADILY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALSO DUE TO A
LOWERING INVERSION. FRIDAY MORNING THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LAKE SHORE THEN IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH TO
BETWEEN ROCHESTER AND OSWEGO AS WINDS VEER TO AROUND 310 DEGREES.
CURRENT THINKING STILL REMAINS THAT THE TRANSITORY NATURE OF THIS
BAND SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OVER ANY ONE LOCATION
SO NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE YET ON HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS BUT
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE BUT SEVERAL HOURS
LATER...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BACK AS SURFACE RIDGING
BUILDS NORTH. THIS BACKING FLOW WILL CARRY THE LAKE EFFECT BACK
NORTH ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY DURING THE EVENING EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE TUG HILL UNDER THE LOWERING INVERSION.

ON SATURDAY THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR AND GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE MORNING SHOULD
REMAIN DRY WITH JUST INCREASING CLOUDS...CHANCES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SLEET AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN WILL SHIFT
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES STILL
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS. EXACT P-TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED AT
WHICH TEMPERATURE COLUMNS WARM AND MOISTEN. NAM FORECAST WARM LAYER
TEMPS QUICKLY RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
SO ANY MIX IF IT OCCURS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL HOLD IN
PLACE LONGEST ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY SO BETTER CHANCES FOR P-TYPE
TO START AS SNOW THEN TRANSITION TO A BRIEF MIX BEFORE GOING OVER TO
ALL LIQUID. QPF IS LESS THAN A TENTH SO NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
OF EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGHS AND LOWS MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN LATE NOVEMBER. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUALLY DEWPOINTS
BACK ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AND CONTINUE RISING SATURDAY NIGHT
UNDER A BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MID TO UPPER
30S PUSHING CLOSER TO 40 BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL RIPEN THE SNOWPACK WITH MELTING QUICKLY TAKING
PLACE AFTER DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE STRONG HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SOAR...
WITH THE WARMEST DAY COMING MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S AND PLENTY OF
WIND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A MAJOR MELTDOWN IN AREAS POUNDED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF RAIN...WITH THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES COMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF AT LEAST SOME RAIN AND MAJOR SNOWMELT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING TO THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS...BOTH
FOR SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS AND RIVERS.
THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE BUFFALO AREA CREEKS...CATTARAUGUS CREEK...
AND THE CREEKS THAT DRAIN THE TUG HILL REGION. IN URBAN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH BUFFALO PONDING/FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE LARGE
VOLUME OF MELT WATER OVERLOADS DRAINAGE SYSTEMS.

LOOKING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR THE IMPORTANT THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIME PERIOD...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER BACK INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF DROP 850MB TEMPS TO -8C TO -10C
BY WEDNESDAY WITH CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LAKE EFFECT EVENT. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THIS EVENING DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS FOR LAKE EFFECT...THE PLUME OFF LAKE ERIE IS JUST SOUTH OF KBUF
AND WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AIRPORT...BY A
MILE OR TWO...BUT IT WILL BE EXTREMELY CLOSE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. WITHIN THE BAND VISIBILITY WILL BE NIL IN VERY HEAVY SNOW.
THE BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE SOUTH AWAY FROM KBUF THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND KJHW OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO IFR THERE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT LAKE SNOW TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER IN A WEAKENED FORM COMPARED TO
TODAY...BUT STILL PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LOCAL IFR.

OFF LAKE ONTARIO A PLUME OF SNOW IS JUST SOUTH OF KART. EXPECT THE
BAND TO LIFT NORTH INTO KART FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
VSBY BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS. TONIGHT THE BAND WILL SHIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION THEN TO OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE DAYBREAK
WITH NIL VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY SNOW ON THE WAY. ON FRIDAY THE
BAND WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND BREAK APART INTO MORE
OF A WEAKER MULTIPLE BAND REGIME...WITH AREAS OF IFR FROM JUST EAST
OF KROC TO NEAR KFZY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. LLWS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
WILL GENERATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON LAKE ONTARIO AND HIGH END SMALL CRAFTS ON
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.

THE STRONG WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKEN THE INFLUENCING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO ON FRIDAY...WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ010>012-
     085.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ007-008-
     019-020.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST FRIDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LOZ042-062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         SLZ022-024.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH/ZAFF
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK
MARINE...RSH






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    National Weather Service
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